Quick Update

322 Comments

7:25AM

Hi everybody! Sorry for the short discussion & forecast following this. Bigger update later today… Leaning toward more of a miss than a hit for Saturday at this point. Some lighter snow during the day. Bigger punch of precip. stays offshore at night (if it comes further west we’ll have much more snow but leaning away from this at the moment).

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow and rain with up to a couple inches accumulation of snow mainly away from the coast. Highs 33-38. Wind NW to N 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 18. High 28.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 34.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 29. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 28. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 33.

322 thoughts on “Quick Update”

  3. Thanks TK. Good Morning All! One thing’s for certain; it sure is a beautiful sunny February morning! With models all over the place, it should be an interesting day on the blog 🙂

  6. I am going to take the dog for an extra walk or two today, A+ weather.

    In regards to the storm, from my perspective it is a win/win. I love snow and would enjoy more, but I could also use a break from the blizzard’s impact – the only losing scenario would be wet.

  8. Eastern New England will be the area that has the POTENTIAL to see any snow from this coastal low pressure system.
    I am thinking a light snowfall for those areas 4 inches and under. With that said any shift in track could make a huge difference.

    1. that map makes absolutely no sense – what are they seeing that I am not? Best chance for accumulating snow looks to be eastern areas.

  12. Boy it’s close on the NAM, just misses. But it’a huge storm, slight jog west and boy we would be talking about a monster. Just doesn’t look like it’s in the cards.

  13. I will be very interested to see what the GFS and CMC show. This would not take much to come right up the coast.

  14. Curious why no one is talking about the Euro anymore? Seems like reliance on models we rarely touch on like the CMC…

  16. WW less looking at the EURO bc it has not shown it to be that big so I am more looking for a continued trend from the CMC and GFS. EURO is probably the way to go

  17. 12Z NAM has a MOOSE of a storm. “Just a bit Outside”

    BUT it looks closer than on the previous runs. IF those upper winds
    buckle just a bit…. All bets are off.

    Now we’re waiting as there is nothing else to look at.

    Back to work.

    😀

  19. I still don’t feel as though the models have a good handle on this yet. Just from yesterday the models went from the intial piece of energy on saturday being the primary piece of energy to that being a minor event and a secondary piece and stronger developing after that and that’s still 36+ hours, so we’ll see. I do trust the NAM in general(in this time frame) and it’s not very robust as compared to some of these other models.

  20. Thanks TK. Hope everyone gets to enjoy a long weekend. I know I am looking forward to having a few days off. Wouldn’t mind not having any snow this weekend so let’s hope it stays out over the fish!

      1. Progressive does mean fast moving. With that said you could still get a good dump of snow with a progressive
        system as was the case back on December 29th when some places came in with close to a foot of snow across parts
        of SNE.

  22. nogaps is your model for surprise storm this weekend.

    I’m OTS on this weekend with nothing really west of 495

    1. Flow too fast. Euro paints 0 snow after this weekend through the whole run to 240. Everything zips right through the flow and OTS.

      Mid Atlantic adds snowcover.

      1. Yeah, but just yesterday someone alluded to the Euro putting down 24-30 inches north of Rt. 2 so I would take that with a grain of salt, either way.

        2. yeah, that was me.

          not saying this stuff is etched, just providing long-range updates.

          pattern is loaded but we’ll need some digging troughs.

          it’s really all Pacific flow.

  27. Wxrisk.com
    ‎** ALERT IS THERE A SURPRISE NORFOLK to BOSTON SNOWSTORM COMING THIS WEEKEND ? ***

    The term NORFLK to BOSTON snowstorm is one of those phrases that old timers use and one that was popularized by the late great weather historian David Ludlum. The last really clear-cut example of a NORFOLK to BOSTON snowstorm but I can think of off hand was the November 1987 surprise that VETERANS DAY snowstorm. That snowstorm which was poorly forecasted by most… dropped significant snow over Eastern Virginia and Washington, DC as many residents can recall and across far Eastern Long Island southeastern Massachusetts in Boston but for New York City Philly and N NJ… very little snow fell.

    1. Wxrisk.com
      This first image shows the Canadian model from last night. Now remember the Canadian model has had a significant upgrade and it’s probably pretty good with the shore range. We can clearly show what the Canadian is trying to do as it forms the Coastal low much closer to the coast.

      http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/0zggem.gif

      In this next image we see the 6z GFS trying to do the same sort of thing– notice again how the precipitation shield appears to be centered mostly over Eastern Virginia through the Delmarva.. Across far Southern New Jersey and then over the eastern tip of Long Island… Rhode Island and Southeastern Mass .

      http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/6z.gif

      And finally here is a comparison of the precipitation shield total for the next 72 hours. Now this is in liquid rainfall amounts but still you can see clearly what these models are trying to indicate. Assuming that the low does in fact develop this close to the coast…. It is possible that the significant precipitation — SNOW — MIGHT just reach into eastern NJ NYC and western CT… and northwest PA and interior southeastern New York would miss the Moderate or significant snow.

      http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/orfbos.jpg

  29. This is a real tricky forecast for sure, I remember two years ago a similar set up with the NAM showing a storm just east of us and then bam 1 foot later we were digging out bc the storm moved closer. The negative tilt on the NAM would concern most mets.

  40. Ahh hadi is that link u posted showing 2 feet of snoww???? Or is that the total snow that is going to be on the groundd? Lol am just confused. And one hting i noticed is that the NWS is saying we r gna have mixing issues sat eith a high of. 39 degrees? I didnt hear anything anything like that here

  48. At this point I’d love some agreement so I can plan tomorrow…have a few functions and have no idea what to do. One run say 30 inches…another a few…and we are under 24 hours. Makes me wonder how they did this before computers told them what to do. 🙂

    1. If that was a 6Z or 18Z run it would be easier to ignore. I dont expect much change with the euro. Its not known to make huge swings in the short range, and going from what it showed in the 0z run to what the GFS is showing would be a huge swing. NAM and other short term reliable models is the way to go at this point IMO.

  50. What a brutal forecast to try and make. We’re not talking about a simple R/S line here. This is sunny day versus winter storm warning.

  51. Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue

    GFS 12z really bombs out the coastal low. 1000 mb to 956 mb in 24hrs, getting into the historical territory. pic.twitter.com/bEdARnMR
    Retweeted by Tim Kelley NECN

    1. I think they may want to wait on more guidance to roll in before pulling the trigger… maybe the 12Z Euro or the next NAM output.

  58. If there is going to be warning criteria with this storm and BIG IF it would be eastern parts of SNE. I could see advisory level snowfall reached for western areas SHOULD the 12z GFS pan out.
    A slight shift east lower amounts. A slight shift west potential for higher snowfall amounts.

  60. Nobody is going to be in a rush to put up watches imho. 9z SREF snow probabilities are barely over 50% and we still have the King to bow to.

  61. IMHO the trough will go negative sooner, thus a bigger storm. I have read several mets discussing this and I posted that this morning. I really think the models are not handling this well. But hey what the heck do I know 🙂

    1. Well, there is a pretty strong jet at the base of that trough, 160 knots in Florida and it does go negative but not till it passes us. We’ll see.

  63. Tim Kelley tweeted to the NWS and below is their response…we bow to you king

    “Given the large spread in 12 models waiting to see the 12 EC trends before making any decisions, Ur thoughts on event”

    1. More than the euro has been showing. Most models seem to be showing at least something, in the light to maybe moderate range. Euro is and will be the outlier.

  67. Geez looking at models we could get anywhere between 1 inch and a foot, I can’t buy the foot, it doesn’t look right, it seems progressive to me, will c 🙂

  68. Did anyone hear about all the damage done to cars from parking wars, I don’t know why they don’t just remove the snow in city? I guess a few cars r totaled, crazy

    1. I don’t understand why people get so crazy with parking when it snows. It should work the same way it does when there’s no snow. When you leave the spot, it’s no longer yours. Yeah it sucks you spent two hours shoveling it out, but you chose to live there. I just don’t get it

  69. 130pm…. What they are really saying is we want to see what cards are in the King’s hand first! A tweet 5-10 minutes ago from NWS Boston:

    @NWSBoston: Conflicting signals in new data for this wknd’s forecast. Hence big bust potential! Still reviewing data. More details by 130 pm. #SNEwx

  74. Tweet from Tim Kelley

    @SurfSkiWxMan: @NWSBoston So warm now, such rapid cool’g aloft tomorrow. Trough tries to go Neg. Natural Baroclinic off ACK. winter storm watch E MA to ME?

  75. Tweet from NWS to terry at bz. Lol

    @NWSBoston: @terrywbz Hi Terry, not necessarily confused just recognizing it’s a pattern w/low predictability given the complex trof merger/interaction.

  76. Todd’s calling it straight:

    @ToddWBZ: Funny how quiet the weekend storm chatter is…everyone waiting for EURO!

    1. I think Euro is going to hold serve and put down 6″ along 95 from Boston through providence with 2-4 Worcester.

      Hope it’s more but….I don’t know.

      I do want to see 12z nogaps for kicks as it has been fairly consistent with heavier precip. Should be out by about 1:30 or so.

    1. Totally! And certainly all I can handle at the moment! Ever tried to walk a newly spayed puppy with stitches in a foot of snow? NOT AWESOME.

      4. sort of like a cairn terrier at any age – he took one look out the door last Saturday morning and just turned and looked woefully up at us. I do love goldens!

  84. wow this will be a serious next 24 hours to see what happens. will the king fall ill or will the king be right after all. i have coral reefe ecology from 145-4 so i will not be able to look until tonight. but this is one of the most difficult forcasts i have seen. right now i think a light snow event is very possible.
    saturdays small event will dump a few inches across the region even some light rain to start inside of 495 and east of i95. where i am looking is saturday night through sunday. huge bust forcast either way. I bet some of the tv mets are gonna get bashed by the trolls

  87. Wxrisk.com
    ‎*** 12z EURO iNCRESES THE PRECIP OVER EASTERN THIRD OF NC AND VA… Mostly east of I-95 to the BAY and coast . SURFACE temps away from the coast appear to be cold enough for snow.. something like 1-3 ” maybe 2 -4″… areas such as

    RALEIGH EMPORIA ROANOKE RAPIDS ROCKY MT GOLDSBORO
    TRI CITIES… WILLIAMSBURG SUFFOK FRANKLIN GLOUCESTER eastern portions of Northern NECK SALISBURY OCEAN CITY POCOMOKE

    all this misses DCA PHL NYC N NJ ..according to the the 12z EURO

  91. Agree Captain, so it’s GFS vs. the rest… I will take the field and stick with my 3-6 inch call from yesterday.

  92. Text output for KBOX,

    M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    FRI 12Z 15-FEB -2.9 -3.0 1016 94 46 0.00 542 530
    FRI 18Z 15-FEB 6.4 -2.0 1014 68 17 0.00 543 532
    SAT 00Z 16-FEB 0.0 -2.6 1014 93 41 0.00 543 532
    SAT 06Z 16-FEB -0.2 -3.0 1014 96 41 0.00 541 530
    SAT 12Z 16-FEB -0.5 -3.8 1013 91 97 0.03 539 529
    SAT 18Z 16-FEB 0.4 -4.3 1011 83 97 0.05 537 528
    SUN 00Z 17-FEB -0.6 -5.7 1009 89 100 0.06 535 527
    SUN 06Z 17-FEB -3.4 -7.5 1004 82 100 0.08 529 525
    SUN 12Z 17-FEB -7.9 -9.6 1000 73 100 0.10 520 520
    SUN 18Z 17-FEB -5.7 -11.5 998 56 98 0.09 513 515
    MON 00Z 18-FEB -8.1 -16.0 1002 55 88 0.01 512 510

    1. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno

      @neweathereye.did glance at Euro,I don’t see anything on that to discount GFS & more importantly,current Sat supports quicker – tilt of trof

  96. Stations all have their maps

    WB ranges from 2-4 inside 495 to 1-2 past 495
    WHDH has 3-6 about to CT river then 1-3 on cape and past CT river
    WCVB has 3-6 inside 495ish and 2-4 past there

    Seems BZ is the most conservative and the cape is are most up in the air??

    1. That was supposed to say the cape and west of worcester is area most up in the air – or so it appears to me.

  97. Man I’ve never seen WHDH change their weather maps so many times…yet another one post a few hours ago. Maybe they should wait a bit.

    2. WHDH is the weather carnival sometimes: spin the weather map wheel, where it will land, nobody knows

      In fairness, brutal forecast to sort out, but they are not helping the situation.

    3. I was at a meeting this morning and nearly everyone was saying that they were glad to know something is coming even though the stations appear to be unsure of the amounts. IMHO The majority of the public is not only smart enough to get that it changes but also appreciates knowing ahead and seems to actually be getting into the explanations of the models and how they differ. I was surprised how many who really have no interest in meteorology were using the term EURO.

      1. Bingo, if the EURO was trading on the NYSE, you would want to sell it right about know. It is all over Main St.

        1. It really is Captain and every one of them seemed pleased they knew about it. I give credit to our mets on every station – way back to Sandy – when they started actually letting the public see how difficult it can be.

  99. Sticking to my guns and not getting lost in the translation of the various model solutions. This particular set up is very difficult to produce significant snow. Eastern MA still needs to watch closely but still calling for a minor event at this time.

  100. I am reading the Canadian run may have had feedback issues and initialized too far away from the coast. Not sure if there is any validity to that. If so, the GFS may not be alone in its stronger/closer solution.

    Regardless, it is still hard to discount the consistency of the mighty Euro.

  101. Bernie Rayno ‏@AccuRayno
    @neweathereye.did glance at Euro,I don’t see anything on that to discount GFS & more importantly,current Sat supports quicker – tilt of trof

  103. The Euro must be respected. Am I correct in the fact that each successive run in the Euor the QPF has gotten Slightly and I mean Slightly hihger…I remember Hadi posting .22 and then something like .28…I’ll take a few inches to cover up the ugly old snow

  104. I don’t have a ton of time today.

    All this such a tough forecast talk has nothing to do with trof merger’s, best deformations zones and all the other stuff I am seeing thrown around is kind of funny. It is simple, tt is confusing because the models are all over the place and no one wants to forecast anymore without a model consensus.

    The GFS that everyone laughed at last week is now awesome because it is giving some people the solution they want to see. It is confused and that can be found my looking at its MOS output. It’s POPs don’t reflect the kind certainty that it would show if it was locked onto a foot of snow type solution and its own snow tool output is well below its corresponding graphical output. Bottom line I think it is lost at the moment.

    Very simply the best barcloncic zone clearly sets up South and East of Nantucket. Pressure drops to 1000 at Boston, but not much lower. That means no big storm.

    Generally two waves overnight tonight and then again mid-day on into early Sunday AM. Daylight snow is going to have a tough time sticking on roads because of time of year and how light it will be falling. Looking at a generally 1-2″ North and West, 2-4″ Mass Pike South and East of of the 495 interchange.

    1. I bet if TK was here, he’d agree with you. Thanks JMA! Good stuff and makes me feel better…good line: “The GFS that everyone laughed at last week is now awesome because it is giving some people the solution they want to see. “

  105. NWS and local mets can’t just discount the GFS, they could be burned. Also keep in mind EURO is not prefect either. It nailed the blizzard and Sandy but was not great in between.

  107. Even if the EC latched onto a closer/stronger solution, I still feel there would be way too much bust potential in this particular set up.

  108. Re-post clearer first paragraph.

    I don’t have a ton of time today.

    All this such a tough forecast talk has nothing to do with trof merger’s, best deformations zones and all the other stuff I am seeing / hearing thrown around. It is actually kind of funny. It is simple, it is confusing because the models are all over the place and no one wants to forecast anymore without a model consensus.

    The GFS that everyone laughed at last week is now awesome because it is giving some people the solution they want to see. It is confused and that can be found my looking at its MOS output. It’s POPs don’t reflect the kind certainty that it would show if it was locked onto a foot of snow type solution and its own snow tool output is well below its corresponding graphical output. Bottom line I think it is lost at the moment.

    Very simply the best barcloncic zone clearly sets up South and East of Nantucket. Pressure drops to 1000 at Boston, but not much lower. That means no big storm.

    Generally two waves – overnight tonight and then again midday on into early Sunday AM. Daylight snow is going to have a tough time sticking on roads because of time of year and how light it will be falling. Looking at a generally 1-2″ North and West, 2-4″ Mass Pike South and East of of the 495 interchange.

  109. I said 3-6 yesterday and not going to waiver, would love a big one again!! Just not in cards this go around.

  112. A quick review/summary of the NWS – Taunton/Albany/Upton discussion issued within the last 30-45 minutes:

    Taunton – 4″-6″ in E SNE
    Albany – 1″-3″ in Berks
    Upton – 6″ or so in eastern edge of reporting area (CT/LI)

    Upton is sticking w/HWO, not watch for 4PM, but may change as more data comes in and they coordinate w/HPC.

  114. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

    Weather for DC protest Sunday 36 degrees nw wind 15-G 25 about 10 below normal. Latest AGW blizzard should be ending in Boston

  115. Upton NWS not backing down

    THE 03Z SREF IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY
    NIGHT. ANALYSIS OF THE MEMBERS VIA OUR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS
    SYSTEM (ALPS) THOUGH SHOWS THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TRACK
    DIFFERENCES BASED ON THE WRF CORE. NMM AND NMMB MEMBERS ARE WELL
    EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK…WHILE ARW MEMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE.
    THE ARW MEMBERS RESULT IN A 6 INCH PLUS SWATH OF SNOW OVER SUFFOLK
    COUNTY INTO SE CT. THIS IS WHERE THE WINTER STORM OUTLOOK IS
    FOCUSED ON – SEE HWO PRODUCT. AT THIS TIME…I`M LEANING TOWARDS
    THE ARW…BUT AWAITING DISCUSSION WITH HPC.

    2. I gave up on them 5+ years ago; love Cantore on the scene stuff, but I can pick that up from his twitter feed.

  119. Is anyone else a little nervous about the asteroid making its closest pass to earth in a half hour? 17,000 something miles? In space measurements, that’s close man!

    1. I read that if the arrival was 15 minutes sooner or later (can’t remember which), it would have been a direct hit. Good times.

      1. wow – in asteroid terms that is a very small margin – 15 minutes that is. I read it will not be visible to the naked eye and not even with a telescope in north america – it’s due to pass at 2:24 ET and 17,500 miles above earth’s surface. The one that hit in Russia injured a lot of people last I heard.

    1. lol, wouldnt that be something! The NAM and other short range models are the ones to watch now. GFS and EURO and other medium to long range will be less important from here on out.

  125. I really had high hopes for the 3 week period following the blizzard in this very active pattern. However, our first storm missed on Thursday, this weekend looks like a miss or sideswipe (depending where you are) and now the NAO and blocking looks to get so strong that the storm late next week looks to get harmlessly shunted south of us (both GFS and Euro show this). That one’s still a week off and much can change, but right now, not looking too good.

    1. That’s why it is still an “experimental” model. It’s only company right now is the NOGAPS. Enough said 🙂

  127. HPC now going with a blend of CMC and EURO

    PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN GLOBAL
    CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

    2. What does the Euro bottom this storm out at in millibars?

      Does not look that impressive for the portions of Canada on this map either.

      In other words, does it wind up the storm just off-shore, but does not agree with the strength some of the other models had? Given all the chatter, I thought it was too east or late developing for more than moderate snows in New England, but Canada was supposed to get pasted?

  131. I will be in VT so I doubt I see much there except upslope snow showers.

    I would guess 3-6 might be generous, just remember there is always a chance of surprised.

    1. Well now, after looking at them together here, 18Z NAM is more snow.
      Not by a whole bunch, but more none-the-less.

      A trend? Probably meaningless. We’ll see.

  133. Afternoon all!

    I’m feeling coating to inch or so for part 1 Saturday morning and 2-5 inches for part 2 Saturday night and early Sunday.

    Something is not right with the GFS and I can’t pin down what it is. But one thing it’s doing is over-strengthening lows and making them too symmetrical. It reminds me of a basic barotropic model with not enough grid points. So early 1980s…………..

        1. Cool, thanks. I don’t care if we get snow so much as long as it’s below the “I have to roof rake” criteria. Guessing this is.

          1. I believe it will be.

            Part 1 will be a wet snow.

            Part 2 will become a very dry and light snow.

  135. So parts of Maine are under a blizzard watch, that last Euro link shared does not look like a blizzard to me for down east Maine, is it b/c it is only through 60 hours or b/c the Euro is not locked in on it yet?

  137. Today did it for me, spring fever has hit, its absolutely beautiful outside. Can go out in the sun without a jacket.

    I want more of today, lots more !!

    1. Bingo – so what do they see? I suppose the wind criteria may get there of this drops to 950 mb. Don’t need a lot of snow if the winds are there… the mid-west gets ground blizzards if the conditions are ideal w/o precip.

    1. Unfortunately, I agree. However, it looks like in the extended, it will be chilly, but dry. Starting to see the supressed solutions for the storms in the long range. Probably when we look back at the winter as a whole in late April, NEMO will stick out as a huge anomaly in an otherwise very dry pattern.

  140. The Blizzard Watch may very well be warranted given the trajectory of the wind field associated with the low pressure system. It explodes into a beast as it passes. Downeast Maine catches it, along with very cold air so that any fallen/falling snow is easily blown.

    2. The other end of my street has the winter storm watch, but my house is not in it. Missed it be 2.25 miles.

            1. Another favorite is when she says “We can start painting the rooms…” I’ve been married long enough to know you take the W in We and turn it upside down…so We = Me. 🙂

        2. LOL !! Thanks, I’ll remember that.

          This is just what Marshfield needs, a few to several inches of probably wet snow and fairly windy conditions. Lovely !! Can I still find a flight somewhere warm for the real February vacation ?

            1. Thanks a lot Hadi and oh yes, that cruise sounded like a lifetime of post traumatic stress issues for those passengers.

  146. The snow emergency starts tomorrow at 4pm. Im sure they declared it in order to enforce a parking ban so they can plow the streets. Thats what they do here in Lynn.

    2. Bust as in now snow? I disagree, 3 to 6 and get nothing isn’t bad. Especially how the mets have communicated the difficulty with this system. If it was 18″ and we got nothing then that’s a different story. There is no such thing as a bust when you are not expecting snow and you get 6″= 🙂

  149. How can there be a winter storm watch thats immediately bounded to its west by……. nothing, especially when the snow forecast does not have a sharp snow gradient. West of the watch, the vast majority of the area is under 2-4. Doesnt that require either a special statement or a winter weather advisory. Also, I did not see one station in SE Mass for a 100% guarantee of 1 inch of snow.

  154. Interesting from Grey in Maine, again I question this as EURO paints 3-6 inches in Central Maine, the watch says 6+.

    WE ARE MAINLY GOING
    WITH THE EURO OVERALL FOR POSITION.

  155. Todd Gutner ‏@ToddWBZ

    The Sunday AM coastal storm will blow up offshore with an expanding wind and snow field…amounts could easily go up for the Coast.

    1. Come back NStar, dont leave Marshfield just yet !! At least next week cant take away more beautiful June days.

  156. So, is the disturbance in question the twist in the clouds I see over Nebraska diving towards the SE, headed for rounding the base of the deepening trof ?

    1. However, it’s the 18Z run. With this delicate situation, that is probably ample reason NOT to trust it in any way. With this situation NEED each and every data point! 😀

      1. I would not be surprised to see it closer to the coast with the 0Z
        run.

        The mets must be going NUTS!!!!

        Can you imagine if they called for 12″ Plus this morning only to have to take it back this evening. Wow!! It pays to be cautious.

        We’ll see what happens.

        Certainly leaning to not much in the way of a snowfall. 😀

  160. I know it’s onl the 18Z run, but the 18Z GFS has taken a right turn.
    VERY powerful storm, but WAY off shore!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013021518&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=048

    New Snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013021518&time=PER&var=SNODI&hour=054

    The GFS has been waivering back and forth with each and every run.

    I don’t know how anyone could go with this piece of S***T!!!!!

        1. 😀 I don’t know. Someone mentioned it. Don’t know if real or not.

          But in my business, we have an old saying about data.
          “Garbage in, Garbage out” 😀

          Or as Tk once said, if the model doesn’t know what it is doing now, how is it going to predict what it will be doing in 48 hours????
          😀 😀

  165. I can’t just go based on models, have to look at the arctic front and see what happens. It can cause explosive development.

  166. Hot off the NWS press

    FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN SIGNIFICANT MODELS SPREAD. THE
    MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LOW PRESSURE BOMBING OUT AS IT LIFTS
    NORTHEAST AND PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
    THE MAIN ISSUE THAT NEEDS TO BE DETERMINED IS HOW QUICKLY THIS
    OCCURS AND WHERE IT HAPPENS. THE GFS MODELS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
    IN QUICKLY BOMBING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES TO THE COAST.
    THIS RESULTS IN THE COLD CONVEYER BELT SLAMMING EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
    WITH HEAVY SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE IT DOES HAVE
    SUPPORT FROM MANY GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS…THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE
    HAS A TRACK FURTHER EAST.

    ALL IN ALL…GIVEN MOST OF THE MODELS WERE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE
    GFS TOOK THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
    FEEL THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE 1 TO 4
    INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AS ONE WORKS EAST TOWARDS THE COAST.
    WE DO THINK THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS AND/OR
    STRONG WINDS/VERY POOR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
    ENGLAND COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE STORM
    TRACKS…THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS
    REGION. IN ADDITION…A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
    LIKELY BRING STRONG WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO THIS
    REGION. EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TECHNICALLY FALLS BELOW
    CRITERIA…ITS POSSIBLE THAT THERE IS A PERIOD OF NEAR WHITEOUT
    CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON.
    ALSO…THE SNOW WILL INITIALLY BE WET IN THIS REGION SO THE
    POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW DOWNED TREE LIMBS/POWER OUTAGES WHEN
    COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS. WE FELT ALL THESE CONDITIONS
    WARRANTED A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY/CAPE COD
    AND THE OUTER ISLANDS. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
    BY EARLY SUN AFTERNOON…ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
    CAPE/NANTUCKET A BIT LONGER WITH SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

    AGAIN…CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY THE
    LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BOMB OUT. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS
    TREND OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IF THE STORM TRENDS FURTHER
    WEST AND BOMBS OUT EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST
    INDICATES…LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EXPAND WINTER STORM WATCHES
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FURTHER EAST. IF THE TREND IS FURTHER
    EAST…MUCH OF THE REGION WILL JUST BE LEFT WITH AN INCH OR TWO.

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