Coldness

384 Comments

7:17AM

It’s a cold and dry pattern for the next few days. The only threat of precipitation will be isolated snow showers this evening with the passage of an arctic cold front, otherwise a westerly flow turns more northerly Thursday and Friday as the cold air becomes established. This sets the stage for a potential snow threat this weekend, depending on the track of expected low pressure moving south of New England as high pressure stretches across areas to the north and northeast of the region. It’s still too early to get into any details about weekend storm potential, but my feeling is that model forecast has been erring with a system too strong and too close, so I’ll be initially calling for a weaker, faster-moving, system with a colder solution, which results in a lighter snowfall versus a big storm.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 14. High 24.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 10. High 27.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Morning snow, afternoon flurries. Low 19. High 27.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 17. High 27.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 30.

384 thoughts on “Coldness”

  1. Thanks TK !

    As you’ve all been pointing out, trend is colder and smaller event next weekend. If I recall yesterday, the EURO had a QPF around 1.5 inches, which has been cut in half with today’s run. So, it shall be interesting to watch the QPF projections later today and early tomorrow. Is it going to cut in half again or only lessen by a smaller amount ?

  2. Thanks TK. I think the models will get a better handle on it Friday when the twos pieces of energy are fully ashore. They will move very fast across the country.

  3. Precip will increase just not as high as yesterday. Somewhere around an inch. Current qpf gift euro was about .79 all cold and high ratios.

  5. Thanks TK and thank you to JMA and everyone for great discussions. I am not at all qualified to add input but I sure am qualified to appreciate all of the time and info you guys share.

  6. Thanks TK. A few inches of “all” snow is fine with me vs. a foot w/mixing which most of the TV mets seem to be going for. For the time of year it should make for a very pretty landscape in most of SNE! 🙂

  7. Good morning all,

    Hadi I was hesitant to join you last evening in disagreeing with TK and JMA.
    I was seeing a weaker trend with the GFS and wasn’t quite ready to jump on board.

    Now that I see the latest Euro and GFS, they are weaker still.

    Actually, the Canadian is the most robust.

    Here is the 06Z GFS snow map for weekend:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=117

    CMC qpf map:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&lang=en&map=na

    About .79 inches. Oh, I guess that is close to Euro. Sorry.

    NOT liking the looks of any of this. I was really getting excited yesterday, but as usual
    our snow hopes are always dashed to bits around these parts. 😀 😀

    1. Since I have to work on Sunday, for now I have no problem with a less robust solution, however I hope we are not talking OTS either. 😮

  8. Thank you, TK! and everyone else for sharing your thoughts and weather expertise!!!Great news that this weekend’s event is trending colder!

  9. Looking at one of JR’s maps showing the arctic front nosing into the MA Pike area (including Boston) I can’t imagine that storm getting very close to the coastline to produce all that much of a mix let alone rain.

  10. We’ve seen this situation before. To phase or not to phase. Models flip back and forth, pieces not looking like they will come together, and just when it looks like its a miss or just some light snow, BAM! A couple days, or even the day before the event (day after xmas a few years ago), all the stars align. Not saying this will happen this time for sure, but history may just be on our side.

  12. TV Mets clearly see this differently. Still on the more snow inland, rain/mix coast. Here’s from Matt Noyes, “Unlikely this weekend snow forecast (European computer guidance) is exact, but you get the idea that New England and the Northeast surely is in the weekend winter storm crosshairs, and the farther north and inland one is, the more snow you will see.”

    Snowmap from the 00Z Euro https://scontent-b-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/1454604_702603679759185_1681635502_n.png

    No exactly sure why this map is so different and so much more snow to the north. I just looked at wundermaps 00Z euro and not much of any snow to our north, from that run anyways so not sure where his info is coming from. I guess not all euro snow maps are created equal??

  13. Unless that is from the ensembles? Which i understand have been further north and west with this thing from the beginning

  14. I never thought we would get 12+ inches that the models were showing but I think 6+ is easily something that might happen. Models flip flop around so they all have to be taken with caution. I like the high where it is and we have two streams coming close to each other. Do they merge or not that is to be determined.

  15. This all depends on whether you buy a further north solution with full phase or not. Not a full phase colder, full phase and you might deal with mixing even though I fully think arctic air will win the battle.

    I have no idea where that map is from? Doesn’t look right at all based on 00z run which had way less precip up north.

  16. It will be interesting if the TV mets at noon back off a bit of a big storm. If in fact there is consensus from most models of less precip, I don’t see where they would have a choice. I have noticed from past experience however, they usually tend to keep their morning forecasts as is and wait for the evening mets to give their thoughts.

    1. That’s a big question. Again I want to clear something up for people that might read but not comment. When I post maps I am not say that’s my forecast. Just showing the info.

      1. Hadi, I concur. IF I predict something, I’ll try to clearly state so.
        I post a gazillion maps just to share with fellow bloggers. In NO
        way should anyone think that it is a forecast. It is simply sharing
        model output.

        Honestly, I don’t have a clear thought on this weekend’s event.
        Right now, it sure doesn’t look like a blockbuster, however, it’s
        still 3-4 days out, so things can change.

        This could end up a 2-4 or 3-6 event OR OTS. I’m thinking
        an inside runner or coastal hugger is probably OFF the table
        at this point. We’ll continue to watch and report and see
        what happens, having fun all the way. 😀 😀

  18. But you are calling for 6 or over according to above post easily. It will be cold that’s for sure, could it be to cold? I think it drops to 15 tonight.

  20. Hmm, Matt Noyes is really sticking his neck out there on this one already. He’s usually pretty responsible.

    “NE US Weekend Storm imminent. *Starts* wintry for nearly all, plowable snow probable for many. Storm track/intensity in association w/departing high pressure, will determine transition from snow to mix and/or rain. Right now, forecasting high in the mid 20s Saturday. Based on that, nearly everyone has to start as snow Saturday. Uncertainty on precise start time of snow Saturday, daylight hours, certainly by afternoon. Ramps up eve thru night. Have posted one version of computer snowfall guidance on my wall – surely not an exact forecast, but gives the idea of what’s at stake.” (snow map same as the one i posted above)

    1. What is he smoking? He’s usually NOT like this at all.

      I don’t get it??????????

      He usually is one of the MORE Reliable Mets in our area.
      😀

    2. He did say that we had a more than 60 percent chance of that rainstorm a few weeks ago when all models were mostly OTS.

  21. I am confused by what is being put out by mets. On the one hand we see the models going further south which would lock in cold air but the maps they are posting say coastal runner

  23. Hadi according to noa the high temp for boston Saturday day is 29 and the night time low is 25, ch 5 was calling for colder temps at night Saturday into the teens.

  25. Again I John I keep saying I think it’s a cold storm. Big question does it ever form into a coastal storm or rather pieces and we just get overrunning precip.

  26. Here’s the 12Z NAM as the storm commences:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    This looks like ove running precipitation to me.

    Here’s the 500MB chart. This looks like at the very least the beginning of phasing, no?

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    300MB chart, perhaps not as much phasing??

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_300_wnd_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=300_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    700MB chart. Sure looks MOIST.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    Actually, to be truthful, I am a bit more encouraged with this run.

    We’ll see how subsequent runs of the NAM and the other models do later.

    GFS will be out in a little more than an hour or so.

  27. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 19m
    A rain/snow line will become involved in weekend storm, but too early to say where & when, & snow surely bursts first.

  28. What we are seeing may be better for Boston, immediate east-facing coastal areas and SE Mass for snow. Why ……

    Here are 2 scenarios

    1) It all comes together…….. 994 mb low, 1o30+ mb high to the north, QPF > 1 inch

    2) It gets stretched out …….. lowest pressure 1005mb, QPF around .2-.3

    Its early-mid December. Even with a very cold high pressure area to the north, I’d submit that scenario 2 would offer a better chance at more snow to coastal and SE Mass (including Boston).

    Why …. the wind. I’d rather take my chances with less QPF and lighter onshore flow, then higher QPF and bigtime onshore flow.

    But there’s cold high pressure to the north …… look what happened Monday of this week. It started in the mid 20s at Logan and with a LIGHT east or northeast wind, it got to 43F. Hit 45F in Marshfield, upper 40s on Cape Cod.

    I think I’m hoping for scenario 2. I could see a nice 2-5 inch snowfall across Coastal New England and SE Mass. But scenario 1 and it might be some snow to rain ending as snow at the coast and then you end up with two inches of cement slush and I cant stand that !

    1. Tom,
      I understand what you are saying. But for Boston with scenario #1, I don’t
      think rain gets involved, unless it turns into more of a coastal hugger, which
      it doesn’t look like now.

      I am most curious to follow the progress of the NAM runs.

      IT’s showing about 3 inches for Boston before it even gets going.

      There may be a third scenario where we get crap loads of over running
      precip without storm bombing out, keeping it all fluffy snow and a lot
      of it. Just a thought. 😀

    2. sorry i rather have the bigger storm that gives the merrimack valley(my area a good dumping sorry 😛

    2. John, I read Pete’s blog last night and he pointed out what a model was indicating but then commented that a wise weather(person) doesn’t rely on one model. What did I miss?? And JR this morning followed suit saying what could happen but making it clear that it is too soon to say for sure.

      1. He was saying something about the wind being a factor towards more snow, direction. I thought he had a good blog last night as I started reading them again.

  32. I really think we have seen this play out before where we think a changeover happens but never does bc of the arctic high that’s in place. Sure it’s retreating slowly but not enough to allow a changeover.

  34. 12Z GFS snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121112&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=111

    Keeps low just off shore, but brings a rain/sleet/snow line up to immediate Boston
    area, but no farther North.

    I think it brings this line too far North.

    We shall see.

    In any case, system NOT bombing out at all.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_096_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    1. Is this phased in anyway or not?????????

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=099&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_099_300_wnd_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=300_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=099&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_099_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      Looks it to me, yet system not very deep at all?
      Just NOT enough energy?

      1. I guess, looking at the 500mb chart, most of the energy
        is too far to the North. I guess that is the read. Not certain though.

  38. Hi everyone! It’s been a long time since I commented on here, but just wanted to let you all know I’m still lurking. Loving the discussion and maps in the comments as always!

    Oh, if (when?) this thing gets going this weekend I’ll be “reporting” out of Brookline from now on. I’ve moved out of Worcester. I’m interested to see how the snow totals differ here!

  40. Its Over, not going to snow this weekend. HM posted on his blog this morning that a foot of snow will fall in mass Vermont NH and Maine. Sorry guys, on to the next one

  41. Hadi, i think all that snow in NY is from lake effect. The map was total snowfall and at the time it was posted, the GFS had run a few hours past the event.

    1. Yeah I was thinking that but why in NH and VT. GFS doesn’t bring in that much precip. Ratios must be extremely high.

  42. From NWS office, Gray ME:

    CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FCST AREA…DEVELOPING SATURDAY NGT THEN ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR TRACK, INTENSITY AND TIMING TO CHANGE AS MODELS ARE KNOWN TO DO.

      1. NO, of course not. I just posted to let you know that
        their office is BULLISH on the storm. That is all. 😀

        Sorry if I confused anyone.

    1. Here is the biggest line of BULL CRAP I HAVE EVER SEEN FROM A MET!!!!

      but if the storm is strong enough and tracks close to our coastline, it would draw in some milder air from the Atlantic and change the snow to ice and rain in parts of Eastern and Southeastern Massachusetts.

      Oh really, MILDER air from the Atlantic is going to cause a change to ICE?????
      REALLY??????? give me a break!@(!@#&*#&!*@&#*(&!@*(#&!@#&(

      It may very well cause a change to rain, but to ICE? C’mon man, don’t insult
      our intelligence!!

      Any change to ice will come from milder air ABOVE US and NOT from
      the OCEAN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. TK, do u think the 12Z GFS over-forecasted QP? It seems more realistic than yesterday’s euro showing well over 1.”

    1. We shall see.

      I’m not liking the GFS trend to WEAKER.

      I am liking what I see so far from the NAM. Sure it may change, but I like
      it so far.

      Let’s see what we get from the 12Z Euro, CMC and UKMET. See if they
      shed any more light on this. 😀

  47. I’ll laugh then cry if the 12Z euro shows mostly OTS with just some light snow showers, but it wouldnt surprise me given what TK and JMA have added to the discussion

  49. Something doesn’t look right with this possible snow/mix this weekend, a lot of unanswered questions, we have the potential to get 4-6 inches but the bust potential is huge

  50. Thank you for your hard work in keeping us informed. I have a feeling this becomes somewhat of a non-event but the anticipation of what MAY happen is always exciting. Happy Hump Day everyone!!!

    1. Now that is the best way to look at it, Sue. Well said!!! I have a feeling (based on TK’s comments and guess and no more) that we may have a nice white coating and not a lot more. But I sure am enjoying thinking about it. I have all sorts of baking planned for when we are stuck in the house with a foot of snow (or no snow at all) 🙂

    2. Sue I don’t think it will be a non event. I think it will plowable . Mike wankum likes the euro which shows 4-6 but that was not his call. Hey oliveras saved by the bell at the very last minute I hear.

      1. We shall see John. Although, if I were a betting woman I would put money that nothing more than some sanders are on the road on Saturday night. This is all just a hunch and not based on anything more than that. As far as Oliveira’s….I have not talked to Joyce since I attended her dad’s wake last week. I chose not to pry at that time.

    1. Nice map Hadi. Pretty consistent with the GFS and EURO, with the exception of northern NE. I actually think this is the best depiction of what map happen around here.

  52. Greetings, I am back for the winter as well. Glad to see the gang is all still here. I will be reporting observations from Sherborn (near the Framingham line).

    I hope everyone had a great spring/summer/fall. I enjoyed reading the blog entries/comments from this past week.

    1. Heyyyyy – nice to see you back also. What’s not to love about winter when everyone comes out to play 🙂

  56. Can someone please remind me where to find the snow totals for different towns in the area? Hadi, was it you who posted them yesterday? Thanks

    1. Thank you Hadi. I haven’t figured how to find it myself yet but am working on it so I don’t have to bug you each time 🙂

      I got a average total for yesterday in CT of 2.6 and in MA of 1.5 with a combined average of 2.1 for CT and MA

    1. From the looks of it, and i dont get a good look on instantweathermaps, but it doesnt look as impressive

  62. Hi, all, I can’t say I’m back because I read this blog all the time, but even more so in the winter. TV weather just doesn’t have the depth that I find here. I admire all of you who can read weather maps and wish I could find a course in it. How did you all learn?

    1. I have been very interested in the weather since I was a kid. I just kind of learned things over time and also learned a lot from everyone here too.

    2. Hi Linda – I’m glad to see you here. I had a really good website that explained reading the maps, etc but of course can’t find the link now. But you can search for reading weather maps. I just did and found this site and am going back to learn some. Hope this helps a bit. http://theweatherwiz.com/school/7-MODEL.htm

    1. Interesting. Still a couple days before we get the clear picture since there are still unknowns with the data of the disturbances that will impact us. As TK said they are in a poor sampling area.

        1. I think by Friday the Euro will be between .30-.40 which is about 2-4,3-5 inches, this snow looks powdery, bottom line I believe euro continues to come back a little more IMO

    1. 1.5 to .76 to .57

      So, dropped 50% when it went from 1.5 to .76

      and 25% from .76 to .57

      So, if the QPF forecast drop halfs itself the next 3 days …..

      .57 to .50, then .50 to .47, then .45 or so.

      I’d take .45 and run !

  69. Wundermaps has NO snow at all north of route 2, and maybe, just maaaybe squeeks out 6″ from boston south

  70. Yeah no idea where they got snow into Maine and VT. Euro is all snow for us.

    Tom it could reverse itself as well. I think it will end up stronger but by much.

    1. Unless all the mets are going with the euro ensemble mean, which i believe has been more west than the op runs

  71. Also does it look like a slight warmup just prior to Christmas to melt our white Christmas away? I hope not!!

      1. Or in my life, it’s, it’s already mid Dec, back to work in about 10 weeks 🙂 already thinking of early March when things start back up again

  75. Hello all, been really busy lately and haven’t been posting, but still reading and following the blog.

    Just wanted to comment on the Euro (and GFS) deterministic runs and not to read too much into them verbatim. As the NWS noted in their discussion this AM, both the Euro and GFS ensembles are clustered west of the deterministic runs and closer to the coast. I’d take the ensemble mean over the deterministic run any day. I’d wait to see what the Euro ensembles say before passing judgment. I would be very surprised if this storm is a miss and we don’t end up with at least a low end significant snow.

    1. Week said mark. Yes just don’t see a miss on the table. It’s like what i said this morning and toss out the models for now because we’re a few days from the event and the models just seem horid.

    1. Wow. If you say that than its a huge storm coming, lol. You giving up 3 days before a storm. You’ll be singing a new tune come Friday. To early my friend on the runs.

  79. HI all!!!

    Few things…

    * I know I said welcome back to a few of you under your posts but so I don’t miss anybody, welcome back to all of you that only post during the winter! Glad to hear that many of you read even when you don’t post. 🙂

    * I’ve had heavy spam rolling into the pending folder of late. I am going to be updating the software hopefully this weekend and with a new fix to catch most of that spam before it ever gets in. So, if any of you are trying to comment with a new username or new email, it will go into the pending folder and may get lost in the spam pile. I am going to create an email account for any of you to email me at in case you are trying to post and it’s not getting approved. I will announce the email address in the next day or so.

    * Now that we are about at the 72 hours before the start of the “event” and that’s my rule, I’ll toss out my first idea on snow. The models have been trending in the direction I expected them to. Are they done? We’ll see. I do feel decently comfortable with the Euro’s handling of the situation as of the last couple runs. Taking it all into account, the first call will be a widespread 3-6 inch snowfall starting Saturday and ending Sunday. With some troughiness lingering around, we may see it stay a little unsettled into early next week too with another period of snow or snow showers possible Monday night or Tuesday. Otherwise it’s cold well into next week. Signs of a brief thaw late next week, but some serious cold looks like it may be lurking just behind that brief mild tease.

    Have a great afternoon everybody! A few errands to do and a school meeting early evening so I’ll try to pop back to the blog now and then through this evening. 🙂

    3. Thank you TK – I like 3-6 as it will be ok for those who are driving/visiting for the holidays (I know it’s early but some are) yet really pretty and with cold weather behind it we just may have a white Christmas 🙂

    4. Thanks TK !

      A dusting to 2 inches yesterday got top billing on the news for the first 5 to 10 minutes. 3-6 might get the whole newscast and preempt other programming. 🙂

      2. They let the kids out early of school yesterday bc of that nuisance type snow, WOW!!! How times have changed lol 🙂

    2. John,
      When I said falling apart, I meant coming down from a 12-16 inch event
      to a 3-6 inch event. HUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGEEEEEEEEEE
      difference. 😀 😀 😀

      A 3-6 event is a non-event in my mind. Just NUISANCE SNOW. 😀

        1. Yes,
          Of course, in your line of work that is understood.
          Still doesn’t change my opinion though. 😀

          1. 3-6 is BIG in Virginia Beach, but here? We sneeze at this, and when u think about it, it will mostly melt next week, think about all the wasted money clearing snow, for it to be gone a week later, 🙂

          2. 3-6 is BIG in Virginia Beach, but here? We sneeze at this, and when u think about it, it will mostly melt next week, think about all the wasted money clearing snow, for it to be gone a week later, 🙂 🙂

  84. Looking at the 18Z NAM. Getting there, but it looks to be not phased relying
    totally on Southern stream energy? Am I reading this correctly?

    Here is the snow map at 90 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121118&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Here’s the surface map at that time:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    That last blue line (0C) is the 2M surface temperature.

    To me, the NAM looks to be the most juiced up of them all. (well that’s normal, isn’t it?)

    Here’s the 500mb chart:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

  86. OS 3-6 is nice event. There we disagree.

    I like the nam set up we shall see. I am thinking TK 3-6 will go up not down.

    2. Yes, we disagree and it’s ok to disagree.

      I’m a jaded, greedy, old SOB and want Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more than 3-6.
      😀 😀 😀

  87. national weather service has this to say. “THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
    CONNECTICUT…MASSACHUSETTS…SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE…AND ALL OF
    RHODE ISLAND.

    .DAY ONE…TONIGHT.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

    THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO
    IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW…
    SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
    ACROSS THE INTERIOR…WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SHORES AND
    ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.”

  89. 3-6 inches is an easy cleanup, 700 houses/condos and 9 schools, 3-6 inches is easssssy, no problemo, just not sure we get 6 inches, I’m thinking less, but will see 🙂

    1. Yes, not even the Snowy owls as they get relocated to the Trailside
      Museum. 😀 😀 😀

      Logan Airport is the most dumb-ass location in the world to keep a City’s
      weather records. Just plain insanity. BUT we have had this discussion
      before.

  92. Welcome back to those who have come back and anyone else who is new.

    I guess we’ll have an idea about the wknd. if and when they put up any watches or warnings. I am guessing a minimum of 3 inches – even the Cape – prob’ly more in different areas. In any case, it’s really cold out and it’s going to get colder. I am enjoying reading all the posts re: the models and info. I can’t understand all of it but I try. I wonder if the winter that seems to be starting out cold and stormy (and it’s not even winter yet!) will end up mild. I don’t know – anyway, we have been slowly decorating the house – this yr. I am going to buy a few new decorations. Have a good night everyone!

  94. 3-6 to me is a good snowfall and I will be happy with that to add on to the 2.5 inches I got yesterday.

    1. Please replace the will above by “Would, should this particular
      run be verified” (It is, afterall, the 18Z run of the GFS. 😀 😀 :D)

    1. Yes, it could be. Not expecting anything good to happen. Hoping for
      a positive change. 😀 😀

      What has the Euro done? Gone from let me see:
      1.47 TO .77 TO .57?????????????????????
      What’s next, .37? .27? .15? .05? .01? 😀 😀 😀

    2. Oh, I’ll give you that it was the 18Z GFS.
      But here’s guessing that the 0Z run will be quite similar. 😀

      1. Matt don’t worry, I think the 3-6 will be a lock. Not up or down. Now that’s a guess but one I feel good about. Tonight will be a 3 blanket night, lol.

    2. Because as the models get a clue, they realize that complete phasing is nearly impossible in this pattern configuration. 🙂

  100. I think .37 will be the final from euro, hence why I’m thinking 3-5 inches for most with some sleet mixing in holding down accumulations, Plymouth to Taunton could receive mostly rain, with a brief shot of snow at the beginning

    1. I doubt Plymouth is going to see mostly rain. Have you reviewed the projected temps, don’t see it that way.

    2. If you are basing your forecast on euro which it seems then no mixing occurs. How can you throw that in when it’s not accurate? Even Plymouth has no mixing on euro. Now if you tell me you are using a different model for your basis that’s fine but no way mixing if you are using euro.

  101. storm looks interesting still. im hoping for the more snow up in the merrimackvalley i could care less if you people south and east of boston will get anything 😛

    2. I’m the same way 🙂 could care less how much snow they get up there, if it rains here, it rains everywhere 🙂

  102. Harvey read the blog and copied my forecast.. JUST KIDDING!
    We agree 100% at this stage.

    18z NAM .. don’t bother. Trash. It’s in its bad range and on an 18z. Double bad.

    1. He is the best on tv, the best. He must have been on vacation. And he is usually always right. Straight shooter type a guy no bs.

  103. The 18z NAM had a conference call with the 12z Euro. 😛

    Off to the school – catch you all later!

  104. I’ve read the NWS discussion and caught a few of the TV weathercasts and caught a similar theme of not all snow within a reasonable distance of the coastline …….

    Got me thinking about the Dec 26/27 storm from a couple years ago. I understand that this event is progged to be weaker than that one.

    That storm gave Boston 18.2 inches of snow. I still remember the radar image of this storm as the center passed very close to Nantucket. It was a very windy storm, with big coastal flood issues in Scituate.

    Boston got to 32F and thats it. I think Marshfield was 43F at one point and we ended up with mostly rain. The coastal front really didnt get to Boston, it instead held along the South Shore.

    So, there is some precedent, with a cold high to the north to hold the wind more northerly, even at Logan. It wont surprise me if the coastal front is a bit further east than what seemed to be portrayed this evening. As for Marshfield, forget it. We’ll be 36F to 40F at some point Sat or Sunday. Even an 030-060 wind direction for a time off of the 46F ocean, down on the South Shore, wont be good for all snow.

    1. I remember that storm Tom. Damage was bad in your area. Then New Year’s Day it was somewhere around 70. Lots of beach erosion and it seems to have continued each year since then

      1. They had the big equipment out picking up all the rocks and no exageration, a few of the boulders that ended up in Brant Rock village.

        I had forgotten about that warm New Year’s Day !

  105. The storm Tom was talking about was the start of a six week period that was quite snowy. Where are records are kept for inland CT it was the snowiest January on record with 54.3 inches of snow including the biggest snowstorm on record for inland CT during that stretch on the 11th of January.

    1. Oh yes, now I remember. Four Wednesday’s in a row in January to the 1st week of February where school was cancelled due to snow.

    2. I remember JJ. It really seemed to be the start of the erosion on at least the south coast. The fall of 2011 continues the erosion even though it was low snow winter. And then last year there were back to back storms that wreaked havoc.

  106. There were two storms that January that had widespread double digit snowfall totals the one the 11th of the month and the one on the 26th. It was truly an amazing six weeks.

  107. from NWS this evening:

    THIS IS AN ANOMALOUS SYSTEM ROUGHLY +1-2 STANDARD DEVIATION PER THE GEFS OF PWATS AND BOTH H85 MOISTURE FLUX AND V-WIND COMPONENT. AS A FINAL NOTE…CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE TOP-3 EVENTS SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIAL SNOWS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ICING /THE TOP EVENT BEING JANUARY 11TH 2009/. THESE TWO POINTS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS STORM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT

    Hmmmm

    btw, they expect a mix to rain along the coast:

    LIKELY TO BE A BATTLE OF PRECIP TYPES ALONG A COASTAL
    FRONT IN PROXIMITY TO SHORES /PER THICKNESSES/ ROUGHLY AROUND AND EAST OF I-84 TO I-90 TO I-495 WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMS

      1. Here Ya go:

        As defined by the American Meteorological Society, the precipitable water is “the total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of unit cross-sectional area extending between any two specified levels, commonly expressed in terms of the height to which that water substance would stand if completely condensed and collected in a vessel of the same unit cross section”. To simplify this into laymen’s terms, if you were to take a column of air from the surface all the way up to the top of the atmosphere, and then condense all the water vapor in the column instantaneously, the PWAT value is how much liquid water will fall from the sky the second it was condensed in inches.

        1. GREAT visual explanation OS. Thanks.

          PS. A glass of wine (maybe two) and I was a bit terrified until I got to the laymans terms. 😉

    2. I love how they talk about the system as if it already exists in the form it is going to be in when it passes here.

      I don’t buy it.

  108. I don’t remember the January 11th, 2009 event. I remember a significant event on the 11th of January 2011 but not the 11th in 2009.

    3. Oldsalty I must say I’m a bit surprised with you. Your looking at a more than likely solid six inches where you reside and it’s not making you happy. It’s a snow storm, that’s why you watch all these models in search of one. It’s here and won’t fizzle so look forward to it. Forget all the other models as euro has it covered.

      1. North you were referring to the NAM earlier and your right it did nail the snow event on the 11th of January in 2011.

        1. It did nail a upper level low during that time exploding when it hit the coast and dropping 10-15 inches in the overnight between midnight and 7 am. Not sure if it was that exact one, but that was a great one and it did not over do it on the precip. I remember watching it spin across Kentucky and West Virginia on the radar the night before.

  112. I will take a 2-4 3-6 inch snowstorm. They all can’t be blockbusters. We still have plenty of time to get a big one.

    1. I know. All this blog does is search for snow and its here. I could not be happier even though it will take me away from the family all weekend. But this will sure help Xmas.

      1. Some love snow others don’t. I don’t search for snow but rather talk a lot about if there is a chance.

        I am also very happy with 3-6. Kids would love it so I love it.

  117. John,

    I tried to explain it before. If yesterday AM it looked like 6 inches, I’d be fine.
    BUT, NO! yesterday AM the Euro and the GFS were calling for a blockbuster. NOW
    that appears to be gone.

    SO, NO, I am not going to be excited. Sorry.

      1. I sure do. But of anybody here I think you rule the model runs. I just want you to be happy with some snow. I’m happy for you. Just remember the October snow in Syberia and weak El Niño winters. Take care oldsalty.

        1. You’re a kind soul John.

          Right about now I’d be happy with the 6 inch snowfall with NO Bleepity bleep bleepin rain. We get Arctic air
          to be done in by Bleepity bleep bleepin rain)_!#*@(*!@()#&)!@&#*&!@*(#&*!&(@#*&!*@&#!(&@#*&!(@#&!*(@&#*&!(@#*&(!@&#*!&@*#&!*(@#

          ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!@()#&*!&@#*(

    1. And there is the CHANGE OVER and confirmation of a COASTAL HUGGER!!!!!!!!

      GEEZ, we can’t win for nothing!! Of course, doesn’t mean this is correct!!!!!

      1. AND the final INDIGNATION!!!!!!!!!!!

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013121200&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084

        Look at that beautiful qpf going down the drain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        Ok so there is “some” snow up front.

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

        Guess what, with the RAIN depicted above, ALL of this snow,
        and I mean ALL of it WILL be washed away.

        ASSUMING, of course, the NAM verifies.

        Could, could not. GFS to follow and we shall see.

    1. Yeah, I know. BUT in all seriousness, I am NOT liking the trending going on here. Just NOT looking good at all. There is a bit of time, but I think the models
      are closing in on a solution here and I’m afraid we’re NOT going to like it.

      1. OS one minutes it’s too little QPF next its a rainstorm. Way too early. How are they closing in a solution? Euro and gfs are completed opposite.

  121. The NAM to me over does everything when it comes to snow and JKG for thunderstorms. With that said it gets about 1-3 storms right in the winter.

  122. This outcome will known in a clearer picture by this time tomorrow night. I know if TK was in right now he would say toss it out.

    1. I still don’t think we get the clearest picture until the 12Z runs on Friday at which time the energy will have come ashore in British Columbia before it heads south and east into the southern states.

  123. Hadi, remember last winter or the one before it …… when you were up in Augusta sometime in December and I said a storm was going to be mostly rain ….. and you got a big snowstorm and the temps didnt come close to 32F. As I recall, I think the temps stayed in the low 20s. Guess which model had the 540 thickness north of Augusta ?

  125. the models are starting to kill one of the 2 things that i was looking forward to this weekend before finals week. 🙁

  126. the models are starting to kill one of the 2 things that i was looking forward to this weekend before finals week. 🙁

  127. the models are starting to kill one of the 2 things that i was looking forward to this weekend before finals week. 🙁

  130. Now if GFS shows same solution then something to think about. But I strongly doubt it shows something like the NAM.

  131. Just looked at 500 mb charts on today’s 12z GFS vs tonight’s 0z NAM.

    In comparing the two, my interpretation is that the 0z NAM much more aggressively linked or phased the northern stream and southern stream disturbances. In turn, this really backs the upper flow along the east coast, allowing a much closer track of the seconday low to the coast, I believe into SE Mass.

    1. Yes and the whole run seemed to place a little more emphasis on the primary low than what everything else has shown.

      Unlike TK, I’m not able to say with confidence whether this scenario has any merit. However, given the amount of cold in Canada and a general agreement that the two streams are more likely to remain not phased, I think the run doesnt make sense.

  134. Storm will adjust NW from what the GFS and EURO showed. Nothing to the extent of the NAM. Should put Worcester to Boston to providence as the winner in this storm.

    1. In some ways, I hope not ( storm track shifting N/W, nothing to the extent of the NAM ). I still think Boston and SE Mass have better snow potential from a somewhat weaker, benchmark or even slightly SE of the benchmark tracking storm.

      Either way, hope everyone enjoys tonight’s GFS run and I will read your posts in the morning to find out what it said.

  135. This should be a progressive system. There doesn’t appear to be any blocking. With that said you could still get a good dumping of snow as was the case with the storm we had last December the 29th when many spots in eastern parts of SNE had double digit snowfall totals.

  138. 2-4 in Boston, 3-5 just north and west of Boston, 4-6 inches north of west of 128, 6+ inches north and west of 495, Boston southward 2-4 inches then rain, Plymouth to Taunton southward 1-3 inches then a change to rain, east of the canal mainly rain, goodnight 🙂

  139. Just the way you like it Charlie. Way too soon for exact numbers. You crack me up and not in a good way 🙂 have a good night and take it easy.

  140. road conditons for saturday through sunday
    scale
    created this scale last winter.
    a 1-5 scale for road condtions
    1 some minor delays. some slick spots mainly on secondary road ways
    2. minor delays. slick spots on secondary roadways and on untreated main roads
    3. moderate delays. slick spots. snow/ice covered secondary road ways. avoid secondary road ways
    4 heivy delays. snow covered,ice covered roads. avoid roads.
    5 severe delays and road closures crews not able to keep up with snow and or ice. do not travel.

    areas north and west of boston and west of i95 level 3/4
    areas south and east. level 2/3
    post

  141. We’re now in range to put #’s on this, and adjust them as needed.

    A couple things that probably factor in here:
    The NAM is too warm and too wet.
    The GFS is too warm and too wet.
    The Euro from 12z has the most reasonable solution, IMO.

    When reading those snow maps, be careful on where those lines are. The GFS’s forecast of 6 inches is west of Boston with the city around 3 or 4 on the 00z run, even though it looks like the 6 inch line is right in the city.

    I’ll be up with the 00z Euro comes in (assuming it’s on time).

      1. Boston can stay mostly snow. In fact there may not be much of a rain/snow line except the South Coast & Cape.

  142. Well everyone is below 25 degrees now and many will not get to 25 today. Have been seeing some 3-6″ snow maps for Boston for Saturday.

  144. Brrr! Bundle up those little kiddies this morning and you big kids, too 😉 21 degrees in Brighton!
    Boston may not go above freezing until next Tuesday, or Wednesday with Sunday being the possible exception. I sure hope not!

      1. Why what? Above freezing. I thought you wanted snow. Just come out and admit it. You hate the cold and snow. Which is fine.

  145. The only reason why I would like it to snow is for a white Christmas, I’m not so sure after this snow that we have a white Christmas like I like, it’s quite possible for a rainstorm just before Christmas, just imagine this is all for nothing ugh, sanders r ready 🙂

  146. oogfz & 6gfs look almost identical.

    Trend more east at some point still?

    Not a bad comma head for a relatively weak storm.

    Feeling a general 4-8 is probably in the cards. On the higher end out here in the hills with higher ratio.

    Fast mover!

  147. Gfs hold serve and didn’t cave to nam. Looks like a 6-10 inch snowfall. Euro a little less precip and ends up being close to 4-8.

  149. WSW watches will be posted in the aft package. The nws pretty much eliminating rain or even mix from most of the forecast area. They are basing entire forecast on euro ensembles which shows 6 and some higher spots.

  150. Hadi I was saying who is what planet hopes it doesn’t get above 25 degrees? Lol I mean seriously, I mention it to my kids, and there smart enough to say the same thing, I’m not sure many people would say that, anyways moving on, looks like a cold day for the polar bears,

  152. Look at Mt. Washington ….. -18F !! That is serious cold air above. Temps may be going down this morning with that reading.

  154. This storm is going to be one of those situations were snow /rain
    Is talked about but never happens. Have a good day.

    1. I think you may be right hadi. Whats the eta on this, Saturday afternoon or night and to what Sunday afternoon. Although as I type this ch5 saying 2-4 for boston as they will mix. Looks to be Saturday afternoon.

      1. They can’t be going with euro then or gfs bc neither have any mid. Canadian and Nam are the only ones mixing issues.

  155. It’s hard to believe with this cold today that we’re even discussing a rain/snow line. Finding it hard to peel myself out of bed this morning. Brr!

  156. As of right now north of boston looks to be the jackpot with 4-8. I’m sure things will keep flip flopping.

  157. I think it’s time to move on to the next blog.
    And be nice to each other there. 🙂

    Have a great day!

  158. Near the coast …… any ideas on windspeed and directions during this event ?

    For example on wind …… is the average going to be 5-10 mph or 15-20 mph ?

    Wind direction ….. are we looking at winds more like 020-030 or 050-070 ?

    I’m thinking some accumulation, even at the beaches up and down the Massachusetts coastline, but am still open to the possibility of a bit of rain near the coast (within a couple miles), especially if the wind direction veers beyond 045 at any time during the event.

Comments are closed.