Frozen In Place

870 Comments

7:25AM

It’s cold, no doubt. But also frozen in place is the forecast from the previous entry. A short summary: One arctic cold front is by, and a second one will settle into the region on Friday and hang out in the region for a day or so before washing out. These will keep it nice and cold. A storm system is expected to make a run at the region over the weekend and as discussed previously will never really develop into a major system, being whipped along the jet stream rather rapidly. This is the colder solution that has been expected to take place. Computer guidance will still spit out too much precipitation, and based on that, a first forecast of 3-6 inches of general snowfall will hold in this update as well, with not too much mix/rain involved, save for the South Coast and Cape Cod. After the storm’s passage, it’s back to more cold, with a threat of a little more snow about Tuesday of next week. There are still hints of one or two milder days later next week which will probably be followed by even more cold weather.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-18. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 10. Wind light N.

SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of snow late. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow likely – several inches of accumulation probable, with some mix/rain possible South Coast and Cape Cod. Temperatures holding in the 20s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow tapering to snow showers. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-18. Highs in the 20s.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 12-20. Highs around 30.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-18. Highs in the 20s.

870 thoughts on “Frozen In Place”

  1. Thanks TK !

    For everyone ………

    Near the coast …… any ideas on windspeed and directions during this event ?

    For example on wind …… is the average going to be 5-10 mph or 15-20 mph ?

    Wind direction ….. are we looking at winds more like 020-030 or 050-070 ?

    I’m thinking some accumulation all the way to the beaches up and down the Massachusetts coastline, but am still open to the possibility of a bit of rain near the coast (within a couple miles), especially if the wind direction veers beyond 045 at any time during the event.

    1. Tom, to answer your question.
      From the Euro, at hour 78, winds ESE at about 20 knots along the coast.
      It then backs to East and then ENE and finally NE.

      Other models, seem to have NE winds.

  4. Morning All,

    Off from work today. Christmas things to do. Will be heading to the post office
    in a bit. I dread that, but I’ll have my Android while in line. 😀

    Tk has dismissed the NAM. It does make me feel a bit better.

    Will continue to monitor.

    HADI, thanks for the QPF figures. I always like to see those.

    Will be back here soon. Need to check some more maps. 😀

  5. 06Z GFS is looking better now. Here is the snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_078_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    CMC

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=078&fixhh=1&hh=084

    CMC qpf

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=PR&hi=024&hf=120&lang=en&map=na

    That’s “about” 30 mm in the Boston area. That’s approximately 1.2 inches my friends.
    The CMC is quite robust!! And it looks to stay COLD enough for all snow, at least up
    into the Boston area.

  7. Thanks, TK!
    Old Salty, enjoy your day off from work! and thank you for mentioning the Post Office – a reminder that I need to get going on my Christmas cards! I think it’s time for a major to-do list! So much to get done, with so little time 🙂

      1. I am seeing the end of the tunnel but, like Sue, still need to get going on the Christmas cards. I started earlier this year and feel as if I am not at all earlier on this end. I’m looking forward to being snowbound this weekend and getting a few things done 🙂 Have fun, OS and having the technology to take along sure does make it more fun!

      2. JR had a rain/snow line on cape and possibly south shore as well. I was surprised based on conversation here.

  13. From the NWS:

    AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE…THE 00Z NAM WAS DISCARDED AS A NORTHERN
    OUTLIER WITH ITS SURFACE LOW/CYCLONE TRACKING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE CONSENSUS TRACK /INCLUDING THE 51 MEMBER ECENS ENSEMBLE MEAN/ IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THUS WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON AN EVEN BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF.

    QPF…WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SHEARED LOW MODEL QPF CONSENSUS (50/50 BLEND OF GFS/EC) IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM 0.60 TO 0.80 INCHES.

    PTYPE…GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TOWARD A WEAKER COASTAL LOW AND FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK…THE PROBABILITY OF A COLDER SOLUTION HAS INCREASED. THIS TREND LEANS TOWARD MAINLY SNOW FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

  14. for this system this weekend. On the two scales that i have.
    Road conditons. expect level 3 delays.
    snowfall on the 1-5 scale. areas west/outside of i95 and 128 a level 3 system(moderate snowfall.) areas east of i95 level 2 boarder line 3
    cape cod and the islands will probably see a level 1 event. (minor snowfall)
    Mix line reaches i95 could change to rain. imidiate coastline.
    1-5 scale for road condtions
    1 some minor delays. some slick spots mainly on secondary road ways
    2. minor delays. slick spots on secondary roadways and on untreated main roads
    3. moderate delays. slick spots. snow/ice covered secondary road ways. avoid secondary road ways
    4 heivy delays. snow covered,ice covered roads. avoid roads if you can
    5 severe delays and road closures crews not able to keep up with snow and or ice. do not travel.
    snow event rating for 3 days out.(72 hours out )
    1. minor. less than 1 inch
    2 light event generally 1-4 inches add or minus 1-2 inches
    3 moderate snow generally 4-8 add or minus 1-2 inches
    4 heivy snowfall generally 8-12 minus 1 or 2 inches
    5 severe snowfall generally 12+ inches.

    1. should add that anyone that stays as mainly snow will see a moderate snowfall. I will put numbers to it tomorrow afternoon/night.

  16. Thanks, TK.

    Vicki and North – thank you for asking. Marc and me are fine – but unfortunately my mother is failing. She is home and some hospice has come in and brought some comfortable furniture (bed, recliner chair, etc.) to make her more comfortable. We don’t know how long it will be – but she seems resigned to it all. My sister and me lost our father to Parkinson’s disease in 2000 – but it was kind of a quick decline – but he went into dementia which was hard. My mother prefers to be at home – we respect her wishes. It is difficult, to say the least. And it’s doing a job on my sister and me. We both have lost some weight – enough said. I try to stay positive – and the colorful Christmas lights, songs, etc. give me some peace. It’s been a hard year – but I am hoping that nxt. yr. will be better.

    North – how is your mother doing?

    1. rainshine i know how hard it is seeing someone go slowly like that. Im sorry to hear that your going through it. My grandmother past away with brain cancer. she was diagnosed with brain cance a day before christmas eve. . had surgury , was doing good for about 3 weeks then we found out that she still had some of the cancer cells even deeper in the brain which could not be removed. She slowly went through feburary and past away first week of march. My dad was really sad that year. Though i helped him buy bringing him sking about 20 times that year to get his mind off of it.best we could Family is what keeps ya going. in these cases 🙂

      1. rainshine, I am so very sorry to hear the news of your mom. It is horribly difficult as Matt touchingly said to watch a loved one go through what your mom is going through. You are in my thoughts and prayers.

    4. Rainshine, So sorry to hear the sad news of your mom. Will keep you in my thoughts and prayers during this difficult time.

    5. Rainshine, so sorry to hear. I will keep all of you in my thoughts in prayers. It is very hard knowing you can’t do anything at this stage. I can’t imagine what you and your family are going through. Keep strong and lean on each other to help you get through it. Is your Sister close by?

      My Mom is doing better. It is very sweet of you to ask with all you are going through.

  17. General consensus is for a widespread moderate snowfall, anywhere from
    3-6 inches to 4-8 inches to 6-10 inches. NWS is using a 10:1 ratio. Seems it
    might be higher than that.

    NWS is using qpf of .6 to .8, so there’s 6-8 inches at 10:1

    If I am seeing things correctly, the GFS seems to be getting wetter.
    Coupled with the CMC, well hmmm
    NAM pretty wet even if too far North.

    Euro seems to be the Driest of them all and even that came in at .62

    I’m in Hadi’s camp right now of 6-10 inches.
    😀 😀 😀

  18. I’m going with 5-8 west of 128 with 2-5 inside of 128 (less in Boston) and down through Plymouth with 2-3 Plymouth south and cape and islands a coating to maybe 1.5.

    And that, folks, is based on absolutely nothing 🙂

    1. I wish we could edit our comments 🙁 It is really not based on nothing because it is what I’ve taken from the conversation and the little I know about models…..which kind of amounts to nothing in comparison to the real knowledge here 🙂

    2. Very nice post Vicki. I would say boston should see more. But boston also seems like the wildcard spot if mixing takes place.

  20. Tweet from Matt Noyes. I am in the all snow camp as well. Nothing indicates sleet or rain to me.

    @MattNoyesNECN: I’ve lowered our New England average forecast high temp for Saturday from 24° to 20° – surely this event mostly snow.

      1. Ch5 was talking about going to mix this morning Vicki from boston south. And had north of boston in the jackpot area with no mixing.

    3. Beacuse the ocean is 46F and unless the wind holds at 030 or less (towards 360), in my opinion, you at least have to offer the possibility of some boundary layer issues near the immediate coastline during the middle portion of the event.

  22. Good Morning,

    I have a question if it’s going to be so cold are we going to run into Alot of dry air? That will eat up a good amount of precip.

    1. Rainshine,

      Please know that I am praying for strength and comfort for you and your family. Try to remember to take care of yourself too. I know it is much easier said than done.

    1. If you can see it ….. per the NAM, what is the pressure on the low around the time its near the benchmark area ?

          1. thanks …… and uh oh. Getting images of some wind along the coastline if the pressure were to end up sub 1000 with a strong high to the north.

  31. Again, thank you all for your kind wishes. I am so happy to be part of this group of great people. Not only do we share our passion for the weather, but we care about each other. Someday I hope to meet everyone. And I especially want to thank TK for creating this blog. We are lucky to have it.

    2. Rainshine, I just went through this with my Mom. She was diagnosed with Leukemia in August 2013 and passed away the Monday before this Thanksgiving November 25, 2013, a couple weeks ago. The doctors at BI said to her all the chemo treatments are not working so she decided to go home on hospice. It was the best decision for all us. Those three weeks were the best and at the same time the worst, but we wouldn’t trade them for anything. Strength and faith will get you through this. One thing to think of….their will be a time when this experience, not matter how bad, will be just a memory. Make sure you leave nothing on the table, give her as much attention and love as you can while still maintaining your own life. If you give it all you have, it will make the healing process a bit better for you.

      My Mom was one of a kind, you would probably never meet someone like her. There were so many people at her wake and funeral but it did not surprise us. As my brother said “We knew what we had”. We never took her for granted and she always felt surrounded with love, unconditional love that she shared with us.

      God Bless you and your family.

      2. Coastal – I am so sorry for your loss. What a beautiful posting you wrote and I will try to do as you say. Your mother sounded like a wonderful woman.

        Thank you – and God Bless you and your family too.

      3. Coastal what a beautiful tribute to your mom and wonderful advice for rainshine. Even with the few pictures on FB that you posted of your mom, it was easy to tell that she was a wonderful person and very, very loved.

  32. I see the NAM has come around! Sweet.

    Here’s a good shot of the NAM:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_072_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=072&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=92

    Trip to Post office only partially successful. We had one package going to our Niece in
    Santiago, Chile. Package did NOT conform to their postal regulations on size.
    Took it to UPS and was informed it would cost $900 to ship it. Instead purchased
    2 boxes and now need to repackage and return to the Post Office.

    Never Easy.

  35. Tomorrow is when it will be posted. I earlier said today and I had my days confused. Sure is still a ways off but guidance is locking in but unsure on exact amounts and track. But nws will have enough data tomorrow morning to issue it

  36. Curious if the gfs will increase its QP for the 12Z run. Better data to sample from and it looks like the systems that will bring us our storm are a bit stronger than earlier thought

    1. I’ll be curious to see if that 6-8 for boston pans out. I bet it does increase only to be brought back down on the runs tomorrow imop.

  38. Really looks like sleet and rain will hold down accumulations bc right when the heavy stuff comes in, it’s already changed, this is a big question, sanders r ready

  39. Hadi,

    qpf looks the same to me just warmer along the coast. If I’m not mistaken 06zgfs was around 1inch of liquid to.

  42. i just found out that my chemistry proffesor is going to be a jerk and give us a test tomorrow for apparently practice for a final tomorrow. via email this morning. grrrrrrr. there goes tracking this storm 🙁 i already was studing for finals for next week. now i really have little time. 🙁

  43. I’m not putting too much stock in the gfs at this point. Its run to run consistency hasn’t been there. Euro, NAM, and other shorter range models from here on out

  45. I love how TWC doesnt even justify naming a winter storm anymore. At least last year they told people why it was named. Now they just throw it out there and hope people know what it means.

    2. I did see it John, but im not sure the correct answer. I’m assuming, if DP’s are low than yes, there will be a period of evaporative cooling and nothing really reaching the ground for a time much like most storms we have in winter. The better question is do models account for this in their snowfall maps.

  49. SREF which far superior for short range is colder. Gfs is not good within 84 hours. Don’t catch features well. Can’t use it for a forecast.

    1. I’m thinking 2-4 then sleet and maybe rain at the tail end at my house which is about 30 miles south south west of Boston

      1. Pretty consistent with the NAM, about 1000mb as it approaches, then drops sub 1000 to around 996 as it passes

      2. On wundermaps it looks to cross near the canal, but just looking at it on instantweathermaps its a bit outside

      3. Even is it get close to the canal which I doubt happens it will stay snow. Remember two or three years ago we had a storm like this cross the canal but all snow bc if the cold high.

  54. From the man himself.

    @HarveyWCVB: Best chance of mix or change to sleet or rain would be Cape Cod and The Islands.

    2. Saying that, I really think we need to watch that surprise, I hope not, but I’m afraid I’m seeing those slight little trends 🙂

      2. John hate to burst your bubble but how do you know for sure Boston doesn’t mix? JR reports – responsibly IMHO – that because of the east wind and the warmer ocean temps, a rain/snow line – if there is one – is very difficult to forecast.

        1. I’m ok. Well going with the experience here as tk said above when he was asked and others here as well have said today boston will not mix. I actually asked the question because I was hearing the mets say mix. Just going by here Vicki no need for sarcasm.

          1. hehehehe – no sarcasm (Mac will tell you when I get sarcastic you won’t have to wonder:) – It was a question but you missed it. I asked how you know for sure – no one knows for sure right – which made it a very legit question.

            1. Oh ok. I was like from you. Like I said just going by the experience here that says no mix at all for boston. Than every tv met except Harvey has mix. And to be fare the 5 met this morning had mix, she did not check with the chief met. All is well

  56. The whole coast and possible mix/rain is a tricky thing ……

    The geography of the coastline is hugely different.

    If the ageostrophic wind kicks in and its a northerly breeze, than Boston (even Logan) pretty much has a land breeze. About the only area north of Boston that has a minimal breeze off the water with a N wind is Cape Ann, but the fetch is not long because NH and Maine stick out to the north.

    But, starting around Hingham heading south, including to a point perhaps 3-5 miles inland, a north wind is an ocean wind. In late January thru March, thats not as big of a deal. But, in mid December, I think it is.

    I give Logan a 70/30 chance of staying straight snow, a 90/10 chance for Boston and its immediate suburbs of staying all snow, but from Hingham southward within 5 miles of the coastline, its 50/50 at best.

    I do like BZ’s snowfall map above for that reason. It seems like they have that basic idea factored in and I think they have it correct.

    1. Hadi thanks for the answer – what is considered the coastal plain? I’m next door to Mark and hadn’t thought about it until Mark asked.

  60. What’s lost in storm talk is how darn cold it is for December 12th. I can’t remember a December day this cold in a long time.

      1. The band “Three Dog Night”…….

        So cold, need three dogs to keep you warm. Some kind of folklorish story I think.

          1. I love it – no jacket for me yet and just a comforter on the bed (oh and sheet) – and no heat except for about 30 minutes mid morning to keep pipes from freezing 🙂

    3. My daughter made the same comment after taking her son to school this morning. I remember some bitter Decembers and even novembers but not for quite a while

  71. I feel like the scene in The Hunt for Red October where the sonar man tells the chief that the million dollar computer is wrong and to ignore it. I have significant issues with the NAM/GFS/ECWMF 12z runs. It is not going to warm this much and for sure not as far inland. They are all producing too much QPF and the GFS and the ECMWF are too warm.

  73. This is really getting pretty funny.

    Why don’t we just use a Ouija board. After all it would be more reliable than
    these sophisticated billion dollar computer models! 😀 😀

  74. Hadi,

    Maybe there snow numbers are still good because the Euro see considerable
    SLEET instead of RAIN??? Just a thought.

  75. Well I work in computers and I can tell you…as you know…all software is flawed to some degree. Considering these are coded by people and people aren’t perfect…

    1. Hadi, Wundermap still has a gap between hour 69 and 87.
      At hour 69 changeover line right around Brockton give or take.

      At 87 it is MEGA cold. SO the problem area is hour 7o to 78 or so.

  77. That 12Z euro snowmap looks almost identical to the 12Z canadian. Seems the snowmaps are consistent but not the individual features of the system.

        1. I really actual want snow hadi, but I’m not the type to be all excited to be disappointed, way to many times, I just say what I see from the models

    2. No os my style, my style of no hype and would rather have rain than snow, so that makes me not his style, in no time have I ever disrespected or trolled around here, I just say what I see on models, what does he want to say yes yes I agree 6-10 inches in Boston, no 🙂

  85. Hadi mad at me bc I’ve been thinking rain and sleet south of Boston, and it’s trending that way, and he’s a snowlover and mad, I’m a snowlover at times, I’m not gonna say its gonna snow when I don’t think it’s gonna, a matter of fact, I’ve been on fire this year, no need to be upset hadi, I’ll check back later

  87. North – thanks for your good wishes. Yes, my sister lives in Framingham, right next door to us in Sudbury, so that isn’t bad. I am glad your mother is better.

  88. I guess tomorrow they will start putting out watches, warnings, advisories. It will be interesting to see who gets what. And even then, you can’t tell what will happen.

  89. Can anyone see the pressure of the secondary low on the EURO when its in the vicinity of passing by Cape Cod ?

    As I recall, 12z NAM was around 996mb, GFS was around 1000mb. I’m just curious to see how consistent the models are with pressures. Thanks.

  91. Dusting, sleet, 1inch chance of rain ill be working it so I could care less. Models better tonight, deep breath.

  92. Just had shoulder surgery so I need to have no snow for a while please. A litttle Christmas Eve would be nice though. Stay warm you all!

  93. JMA already stated this above. Something not quite right with the 12z model suite. It’s out of tune.

      1. I think for the most part it has actually been pretty good.
        Certainly leaps and bound better than NAVGEM,JMA, and even UKMET; perhaps on par with the CMC? Where do you rank it? Curious.

  95. From NWS…

    “FRIDAY NIGHT…

    A SECOND ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRI AFTN WITH A
    REINFORCING SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SETS
    THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.”

    I always thought Arctic fronts brought Arctic air, not Polar air (yes there is a difference, by definition). 😉

    1. Yes, INDEED. I noticed that earlier, but neglected to post.

      Oh, our NWS office. Always there to entertain us. 😀 😀

  96. Hello All. I hope everyone is enjoying this holiday season thus far:) With regards to our first potential significant winter weather maker, it appears likely that most of Southern New England experiences the colder aspect of this upcoming storm despite what the latest guidance is suggesting. Cold air will be firmly entrenched with the support of that big blue H to our north. It also helps that there is a minor snowpack on the ground acting as an atmospheric freezer. Therefore, a mostly snowy scenario is in the cards with the exception of the immediate shoreline along our south coast, CC and islands; however, even in those locales it is likely they see at least a couple of inches before any changeover. Although a colder solution is likely to verify, the rapid progression of this storm does not allow for a blockbuster to materialize in terms of QPF. Hence, a generalized 4-8 + seems prudent for most of southern New England with locally higher amounts up in the Worcester Hills and lesser amounts south and east of Plymouth. At the very least, we all have something to talk about:) Happy Winter everyone!

    2. It’s about time arod. Yea I mean come on this thing does not even come close to bust. So glad you posted. The models suck. This time tomorrow they should u hope have a clue. How’s the new house.

      1. John,
        We love the new house. Our neighborhood is full of children. My kids are both 5 and 7 and they have made a ton of friends. We couldn’t be happier. Hope all is well on your end. Let it Snow!

    3. We are in nearly complete agreement, though, and not unexpectedly, my snowfall forecast is a touch lower. My reasoning behind that is that I have often seen this pattern produce much faster-moving systems, energy that gets stretched, and precipitation that under-achieves. However, you can make a decent case for the amounts you have posted. And as always, I’ll be revising my #’s if I feel it is needed. Still got some time.

      Welcome back!

      1. Per usual, TK, I expect West Woburn to get a little more than the other sections. Seems to be the case…must be the slightly higher elevation. I drove down Lexington Street to Four Corners once and there was half as much snow down there compared to where I live.

        1. I was on Mount Zion last night and noted to my friend that she had about 1/2 inch more snow there than down in Four Corners and about 1/4 inch more than I have up here on Woods Hill which sits in east central Woburn.

          1. Yup…glad I’m not imagining it. Maybe it will be 75 and sunny at Four Corners on Sunday while I am shoveling out. 🙂

      2. Thank you everyone. I couldn’t agree more TK. That certainly is the wild card. This storm has potential but I have similar concerns as you do. Bust potential is low-moderate. It’s nice to be back.

        1. I was just saying yesterday that I will only take a storm seriously when alisonarod shows up. 🙂 Welcome back.

          1. I keep trying to post but I’m laughing too hard. AROD – seriously, welcome back and it’s great to have your input as it was spot on last winter!!

  97. Rainshine I am sorry to hear that news.
    Alisonarod welcome back!
    We should see some winter weather alerts go up tomorrow for what is looking like a moderate snowfall for SNE.

        1. Since my husband just returned to work after breaking his ankle in three places I would really prefer he stand on solid ground right now. So, yes, the extra money is nice but not if it puts him out of work for another four months and that would certainly be my luck!

  100. 18Z NAM just came in a bit colder still.
    Pretty Impressive snow totals, likely overdone, but nice to look at. 😀

      3. i do not like that model just because it gives us up in northeast mass less snow but gives southeast areas more snow.

  101. Welcome back Arod!! Nam cold and juicy. Usually it’s warm so that’s interesting.

    Nws will be conservative to start.

  102. Taking all the model runs into account and all the excellent analysis from everyone here, I’m going to have some fun and give snowfall predictions for the 4 major southern New England climate reporting stations and my hometown.

    Logan : 5.2 inches (some wet snow or a brief mix w/rain mid event)

    Providence : 5.9 inches

    Worcester : 7.3 inches

    Hartford, CT : 6.4 inches

    Marshfield : 2.8 inches (most first 1/3 of event, with a coating at the end after some cold rain)

  104. NAM overdone with the snowfall totals. I think a lot of spots coming in close to a half foot with a few spots picking up a slightly higher amounts.
    Tom that 6.4 you said for Hartford might be close to being right. Our meteorologists here thinking a 3-6 4-8 type snow event.
    If there was only blocking we could be talking about higher snowfall amounts.

  105. Tom your numbers looks pretty darn good except I think you end up with higher numbers for your location. I think many places exceed 6 inches but not by much. Need to digest data to ought and 12 z tomorrow for QPF numbers. I am pretty certain mostly snow for most places.

  108. Hey Tom, don’t forget us folks north of Boston. What is your prediction for the NH/MA border in the Methuen area?

  109. On CNBC, they will frequently say ….. Its 4 o’clock, do you know where your money is ?”

    Well, its 5 o’clock, where they heck is the afternoon discussion update from Taunton ? 🙂

    1. moderate to heivy snow does not start till dark. lighter snow could develope around 2 or 3 depending how fast the area of low pressure is moving.

  114. Well, Taunton and ch 4,5 and 7 at 5pm seem to be giving a bit of credence to a slightly closer tracking low. It seemed the biggest accumulations on all were N and W of Boston … with the mixed line getting west of Boston. Back to the drawing board. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  117. I like how Eric Fisher on BZ hasnt budged from his original thinking of a widespread 3-6″ even with all the varying model outcomes today. Does NOT has rain in Boston area. Only rain possibility is over cape and islands. Possible mix in boston but brief.

  120. Well our CBS affiliate here in CT has officially named this storm winter storm Ashford.
    The station has been doing this since the early 70s. I do like the criteria where it has to be a widespread 6 plus inches of snow or widespread 1/4 inch of icing. The names this year are CT towns but can also be names of people. Next up on the list Bethany.
    I am thinking solid advisory level snows possibly warning level in the parts of the interior.

  127. right now leaning towards what harvey is saying. with the 5-10 inches outside of i95 He believes those areas could see sleet mixing in sunday early morning but won’t do much to the accumulations.

  130. Tk, what’s your latest thinking of the upcoming snow/mix/rain event potential for Sat night Sun, though I do think places in the Boston to Providence corridor will receive a few inches of snow, but when the meat and potatoes are here, it’s to warm hence rain, what’s your latest thoughts? Thank you in advance 🙂

    1. I’m not a big fan of rollercoasters.

      The models are all over the place because they are having trouble figuring out the actual pattern.

      My current thinking is very similar to what I have been thinking all along.

      The NAM from 18z is starting to get the right idea. The GFS from 18z is far too warm and much too wet.

      For Hadi… I said I like the FIM, but that doesn’t mean I buy the QP on any given model run. Every model run has been wet for this system.

    1. Nice video. I don’t agree with his forecast, but he does a good job.
      That hair is like a wild animal. And he was wearing a skin tight red shirt at the weather conference.

      He got lost in a corn maze a couple years ago and had to call for help. 😉

  133. We saw a system similar to this one with a very similar pattern setup last winter (I don’t remember when exactly). All of the models were way over-forecasting precipitation. It was a pseudo-phasing of the streams, but really more like a broad trough taking energy from the southern stream and whipping it by us and off toward the Maritimes. Look at the 500mb charts. There is no low closing off, even in a progressive fashion. It’s basically an above the surface version of an open wave. And it’s moving too fast to produce sufficient overrunning for a big precip event.This is why I cannot understand why the models are spitting out so much QP. I couldn’t figure it out last year when it happened, and I still have no idea.

    1. Yes …. I was looking back at the late Dec 2010 blizzard and when I saw the 500 mb map for that, well …… its eye opening how different things are for this event.

      Per above, I had to go look back at the 18z NAM to see what it showed.

        3. For sure !

          If you were prepping for the 11pm newscast and based on this run, would you make any changes to what we saw for snowfall maps at 6pm. I’m thinking they wouldnt have the 0z GFS by then ??????

  143. And I really wish many media would stop changing the forecast with every model run, as if every run is the final word.

    Out. Of. Control.

  144. From Eric Fisher for anyone who thinks trend is to a warmer storm.

    What’s changed today…

    The models have shifted, in general, a bit more toward the SE. That’s good for snow lovers. It means more cold air should be able to hold on instead of warmer air invading into the region. I still think many areas of SE Mass will change to rain for a time, but all of this cold air firmly entrenched should keep much of the interior all snow, unless something changes over the next 48 hours. The 18z GFS came in juicier with a lot more snow forecast, but one model run does not typically force us to make changes. You’d need to see several runs to perhaps change the forecast. So for now, I’m keeping the same ideas on snow totals.

  145. Screw it. I’m siding with the NAM for two reason:

    1) why not?
    2) because I wanna.

    Widespread 12 inches for all!

      1. It was last year and year before on many a storm. I find it hard to ignore it when it shows that much precip over and over. Let’s see what happens by 12z. If it shows same precip.

        1. Agree, still think it is overdone but sometimes it does have the right idea with phasing and it is always good with the cold…

    2. .45 it is, thanks TK !

      This could be my warmup for my 6th graders tomorrow. Multiplying by decimals is part of the common core.

        1. Not sure, thats why I asked. 🙂

          Seriously though, I really have a weakness in knowing when to take QPF at face value and when to adjust down and by how much.

  147. The next run of the VFM will be around early to mid morning tomorrow. That’s when we’ll really know what’s gonna happen! 😀

  148. Tweet from Bernie Ray from accuweather.

    @AccuRayno: getting lots of tweets about NAM.I am not a fan of the nam outside of 24hrs.How,with arctic air in place can’t just ignore the possibility

  155. Now San Diego only up a touchdown. San Diego leading in time of possession and to me that is one of the keys to victory if your going to beat the Broncos is keep Manning on the bench. It should be a great finish.

    1. The NAM’s temp profile is alright. The precip I believe is overdone.

      The GFS is overdone on both temps & precip.

  159. Harvey up his forecast amounts 6-12N&W and 3-6 for boston with a mix possible. Fisher is holding fast with his numbers haven’t seen ch 7 yet.

    1. Fisher said on twitter the is not changing based on nam or gfs. They are equal on precip but big difference on temps.

  161. Well, the 00z nam run is colder with a solid 4-6 inches across the area, that very well might happen, not all in just yet goodnight

    1. Of course that’s cutting it in half bc it’s way overdone, for it to bring that much precip, it has to have an easterly flow off water which brings sleet into the equation, nam is a little cold IMO 🙂

  162. NAM is cold right to Boston.

    Some panels are missing on the 6z GFS. ughhh.

    Someone might get a foot of snow out of this.

    If this weren’t going so fast, it’d be a doozy for the time of year.

  163. ok, missing panels up on GFS. Whew.

    Lots of QPF and warmer. Inland would still be ok on this.

    Seems a little warm to me. Maybe if the low were stronger, given the time of year and water temps, I’d buy it – I don’t know.

  164. TV Mets seem to be going up on snow totals at least for now. Todd on BZ has a much wider swath of 6-10″ which even creeps inside 128. He put Boston & south in the 3-6″ range and the Cape with 1-3″. More moisture and more cold air. He also feels mixing/rain will occur only at the tail end.

  165. We’re also in a Winter Storm Watch for most of MA except coastal facing locations on the South Shore and Cape Cod. All of VT, NH, and ME are under it, with most of CT and RI as well.

  166. First winter storm watch of the season!
    Looking like a level 2 snow event for most of SNE with the exception of the coast where I am only expecting a level 1 snow event.
    Snowfall Index Scale
    1. Coating – 4 inches
    2. 5-10 inches
    3. 10-20 inches
    4. 20 plus inches.

      1. Hi Shotime… I meant to say at or near the coast southeastern parts of SNE in the level 1. Boston I think will get into
        a level 2 snowfall but closer to the low end of level 2.

  167. JR on channel 7 with higher totals. Calling for:

    Metrowest and west of that: 9-12″
    Boston, south and somewhat southwest: 6-9″
    Southeast of Boston and inner Cape: 3-6″
    Outer Cape: 1-3″

  168. Lots of folks writing in asking if our event on Saturday will be cancelled.

    This is New England, people! The possibility of six inches of snow and you’re asking if we are going to cancel?? Grow a pair and put your winter gloves on… Sigh.

  169. To continue last night’s discussion about QPF …….

    I think the NAM has the most precip, however the GFS and EURO are also up near 1 inch melted QPF.

    I do agree that, based on recent past performance of all 3 models, its wise to go lower on precip totals …. But how much lower ?

    Going into last evening, I thought this event might crank out .5-.6 total QPF, but now …… Perhaps .7-.8, maybe even a bit more ?

    1. Tom, do not understand your post. You are upping the QPF and saying it’s wise to go lower on precip totals. Are you talking about a warmer solution with less snow? Sorry, not following what you are saying.

      1. Think he saying upping his totals from last night but still staying lower than the models may be the best bet.

        1. Yes ! Thats how I should have said it in the first place. 🙂

          Still unsure what will happen on the immediate coastline, especially Hingham points south.

  170. Euro is loaded but does get slightly above zero during peek. I just wonder how much really changes to sleet. I really doubt much at all.

  171. Ok, after looking over the latest model runs, here is the score card:

    NAM is the COLDEST and very moist
    GFS is really juicy, but has a changeover up to and past the Boston Area
    Ditto the FIM. Really juicy qpf 1-1.5 inches
    Euro also has a changeover, but appears to be the driest. Hadi do you have the qpg numbers?
    CMC has a changeover as well. qpf about .83

    I really don’t want to see a changeover, but how does one ignore all of this?

    ONLY the NAM keeps it snow in Boston and even the NAM has a changeover
    getting mighty close to Boston.

    I’m guessing it WILL change in Boston, just hoping it is for a much briefer period
    than depicted on the models.

    12Z NAM will get cranking soon. Will be watching.

    1. No way IMHO a changeover occurs. Watch the coastal front and polar air will hold tight. Look for it to are up just sou his the city. We are in
      Prime location OS

      1. Hadi, Hope you are correct.
        Still, I would be prepared for some sort of changeover in our
        area, hopefully after the meat has been delivered. 😀 😀

        Let’s see what the 12Z runs deliver.

        Soon we’ll be looking at Now Casting and monitoring the temperature profiles.

        This thing just seems to want to pass too close
        to the Cape and Canal area. CLimo suggests that is not good.
        Can it still stay snow, yes? However, history is not on our side.

        Let’s hope that “Polar” air holds. I joke! It is Clearly ARCTIC AIR despite the NWS continually calling Polar. 😀 😀

    2. From NWS:

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/

      excerpt from watch:

      SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CONNECTICUT…RHODE ISLAND AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA.

      VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN HEAVY
      SNOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS GIVEN THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.

      1. Sure I can see that but it’s when 90% of the precip is probably done. Keep reading the discussion where they talk about coastal front.

        1. OS, Perfect snow totals! I hope this map holds true – not too much to cripple any one area, but just enough to bring on the holiday/wintertime spirit!

  172. Nam keep the cold, gfs warm too much. Euro is a nice compromise. Most of the precip is done by the time it gets a chance to warm up. 6+ is very likely for many towns.

  174. Winter Storm Watch = Camp Snow HQ is activated. Charlie, do you want to be the captain of Camp Rain? We start recruitment at noon, VIP lane for anyone on the blog.

  175. Interesting from the NWS at Taunton:

    ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GFS THAN
    THE NAM. HOWEVER THE 21Z SREF PROVIDES SOME SUPPORT TO THE COLDER NAM. PERHAPS THE HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM IS ON TO
    SOMETHING    …AS THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SETTLE FARTHER
    SOUTHWARD GIVEN POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH ARCTIC HIGH REMAINING OVER THE MARITIMES.

  176. Good morning. Happy Lucia Day! I was surprised to see JRs numbers up this morning and from what I read here ch 5 up too. Am I correct that its late afternoon before we see enough precip to cause driving problems? Oh and yay broncos

    1. Vicki it starts early afternoon Saturday but daytime should be fine. The real heavy stuff looks to be coming in around 2am. Travel sat night will become worse but should be able to get around. Although most should stay home if possible so we can keep things safe. I’m reporting at noon time. Hope that helps. I’m hearing still 3-6 boston 6-12 north and Vicki west.

    2. Vicki,
      Thanks for sharing that today is St. Lucia Day. I had to do some research, but now I know about this Swedish holiday!

      1. You are welcome. Its one of our traditions. I’m making the pepparkakor today. Its a yummy ginger spice type cookie and makes the house smell wonderful 🙂

  177. Even 6z gfs doesn’t really bring any mix to Boston and the gfs has been the warmest. This screams of classic arctic air winning out folks.

    1. Arctic air can win out and still be a change to SLEET.

      At this time a change to sleet cannot be ruled out. Believe me I hope it
      doesn’t happen. 😀

      I may stop this after the 12Z runs, but for now I have to be real.

  178. I can MAYBE see a changeover to sleet/rain in Boston, but I don’t see it happening until very late in the game if at all. There is still more than 30 hours to go and this is NE so maybe more revisions.

  179. Time to make the Donuts. Will be checking in from the office later.

    Let is SNOW, SNOW, SNOW and SNOW some more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😀 😀 😀

    2. From your first sentence …… it made me think of that commercial with the plow driver since the first flake of snow falling …… I’m not even sure I’m describing it correctly because I haven’t seen it in a while.

  180. As many know I have been studying the effects of October snow in Syberia. This year it was above which translate to cold winters. This comes to me as no surprise and based my winter prediction on it.

  182. Busy but over all. 8-12+ inches of snow. outside of 128 and west of i95. with some locations going over 12 inches.
    along and east of i95 and inside of 128 down into interior southeast massachusetts. 4-8 inches of snowfall.
    south coast and cape cod 2-4 inches
    0-2 inches outer cape cod and the islands.
    road conditions.
    level 4 road conditions for saturday night to sunday on a 1-5 scale.

  184. Looks as if harvey and 7 flipped. Seems 7 is now only station calling for what appears to be little or no rain in Boston. John did you call Pete??

  185. Took the 4 mile walk this am and then a mile to the T. Very cold every step of the way. Posting from my iPhone. People on T dressed like Eskimos.

  186. I have to attend a 3 hour meeting at 10AM. I’ll miss the first of the 12Z Runs, although
    I can probably catch the NAM.

    Not much to look at right now and it’s driving me nuts!

    Why do I have to be a weather geek? Always have been.

    😀 😀 😀

  188. TK’s original thinking was that the rain/snow line would be well south of Boston with less QPF but now with more QPF does that mean the rain/snow line gets into Boston and even a bit beyond after all? 🙁

    1. Philip it’s looking like that rain,snow and mix line makes it into the boston area at some point, not sure when. But just wait till the next run and the next run and models will show different.lol.

  189. Kinda cloudy here and very cold, I had 2 friends text me from Tuscan Arizona, and they called 3 way, and asked ” you wanna get away” I thought it was funny, anyways still watching this potential light to moderate snow event, still feel sleet and rain will determine finally snow accumulations especially for residents south and east of Boston, north and west is the jackpot as it will be lighter and fluffier, good day all 🙂

  190. I’m just happy the broncos puked on themselves last night, beautiful sight, Patriots #1 in the AFC seedlings, crazy stuff considering the injuries, heading out 🙂

  191. After thinking about it, with a stronger system we want that to pass even more SE than ever to keep the cold locked in. I just don’t want to have to shovel around heavy slop.

    I hope we hear from TK soon. I am surprised we haven’t seen at least an update posting by now on this latest thoughts. Hopefully he has no personal issues at this time.

    1. No Matter what, there is a SHARP and I mean SHARP temperature gradient
      at 850MB. About 15 Degree F difference over about 50 miles. 😀 😀

    1. I would NOT be in the slightest. Not saying it’s going to happen, just that
      I would not be surprised at all.

      1. In reality, Logan comes in at 6-8 inches. In the neighborhoods, more like 10 inches. (assuming no change to sleet and/or rain).
        😀 😀

      2. Ok. But also keep In mind that we all know these models are over amping everything. Tk has warned about this all week. I’m sorry I just don’t see a foot in boston, and I could be wrong as well. I believe the models still and won’t have a somewhat better idea till tomorrow when the storm is knocking.

  200. Biggest snow in Jerusalem in 50 years. And they are measuring the lake effect snow in upstate NY in feet in about a 30 mile area..with more to come with the storm.

  203. One thing to notice that may argue in going against climatology with respect to the 46F ocean (in other words ….. the coast gets nearly all snow too) …..

    Have a look at the NAM ……. the high pressure to the north has a center that hangs back into north-central Quebec province. Its not like the high is a single dome of cold thats in retreat to the Maritimes. Its really a large west to east dome of cold that extends all the way westward into the Great Lakes.

    If the NAM is correct at 997 mb and the low is continuing to deepen to 988mb just to our east, then I think there’s a good chance that the cold dome is going to rush towards the lower pressure (ageostrophic wind) and keep Boston all snow, while also keeping the mid-levels under 32F.

    2. Yes, Tom you are correct.
      The NAM shows that. Look at the 850MB temperatures. Notice how
      tough that -10C lines hangs in there, verifying your thoughts. That
      COLD is STRONG!

  205. I predicated a snowy, cold first half of winter, then an early end in late January/early February. Starting to feel like I am on to something, even though it was just a guess. 🙂

  206. Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    Here’s Southern New England expected snow – may need to tighten the ramp-up in Eastern MA as we get closer…that is, we may get a sharper decrease in amounts at the immediate coast. Southern New England has two big factors playing into accumulation: 1) warm air aloft goes up to the MA Pike by Sunday AM with a mix to some sleet and/or freezing rain, 2) warm ocean air with water temperatures of 46° will make for a very wet snow along the immediate South Shore…and may impact amounts on the North Shore and Cape Ann, as well. I’ll keep you posted.

    https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=703635036322716&set=a.107787602574132.12633.107288149290744&type=1&theater

  208. Even if the qpf did not change significantly if the trend is colder, don’t we have an opportunity for higher ratios with the same liquid equivalent (where warm air does not intercede)??

  210. I am still not bought into no mixing or changeover, I think we have another change through the day slightly milder, any easterly wind spells trouble, I cannot ignore that yet 🙂

  211. Still calling for a widespread 4-8+ amongst most of southern new England. Cold air wins out but there is very little phasing. The NAM has the right idea in terms of the colder solution but the qpf is overdone. However, watch for a coastal front which models have a difficult time picking up which could bring a few locations closer to a foot especially along the I-95 corridor. Either way, it still looks like a nice little moderate snowstorm for southern new England!

  212. The 2 inches of snow we got is finally just about gone, temps have gone from 10 degrees at 6am to 24 degrees now, great recovery

  213. HI all!
    Caught my son’s cold. It’s peaking today, but not stopping me from doing what I need to do, nor will it stop me from taking a trip to ZooLights and a ride through some nicely decorated and lit neighborhoods in the Saugus MA area tonight.

    I will get an update in later this afternoon. Intended to do it this morning.

    Not a whole lot of change to thoughts, which will basically be similar to arod’s just above.

    Adding a couple inches to my first guess for 4-8 where there is no mixing. QP too high on all models. Less snow obviously where some mix takes place. I’ll detail my thoughts on it later, but basically immediate coast may mix from onshore wind, and south of Pike stands best chance of mix (South Coast may rain for a while) from warm air aloft. But still staying closer to NAM’s ideas versus the GFurnaceS.

    I’ll be back later! Have a great day!

    4. Grew up in Melrose and we always had a ride through a section of Saugus off the Fellsway every year to look at the lights!

  215. It will be telling when and where the warnings vs advisories set up. Warning criteria is AT LEAST 6” of snow in a 12 hr period, or 8” or more in a 24 hr period (well among other things, but that is the most relevant in this situation). Any area that has a 4” in its range should be under an advisory. It will be really telling where that line sets up.

  218. Do they have wealthy neighborhoods do lights here? over a 100 homes r decked out in lights, and you can drive around, do they have that here? I’ve never, but wondering if anyone has?

    1. Charlie there are may wealthy and not as wealthy neighborhoods. If you are looking for a great light exhibit, the Meehan house in Millis is a great take. It won Good Morning America’s best house in the country years ago.

      1. You may technically be correct, as where the official records are kept at Logan, by the time all is said and done may not even get 6.” Most if not all other Boston neighborhoods however will likely exceed 6″ and some around 8.” Just my opinion, but thats how i see it.

    2. Unless they changed again today, they made a significant change since yesterday. They had 3-6 all the way to 495 yesterday and 6-9 is now in to 128

      1. I should have added that the only reason I know that is I copy the maps and put them in one doc to see what each station is saying. Yep…..sad, isn’t it 🙂

      2. I guess i should have said they never gave in to the constant model changes showing the warmer solutions and more sleet and rain south of boston. They never went down in those areas like the other stations did. They only just recently went up to confirm their original thinking. NWS agrees and their map shows that.

      3. Love how highways are used as these magical dividing lines for snow accumulations and p-type. Snowing on 95 north but on 95 south its rain 🙂

          1. Oh shoooot 🙁 I was gonna try that early sunday morning. I was gonna stand on one side of 95 and have my fiance stand on the other and report the weather, lol

  221. Logan might be 6 at most but just move a mile it two inland and it’s 6+. Let’s see what the nws office does this afternoon with WSW my guess to winter storm warning

  222. From Bernie Ray at accu weather

    @AccuRayno: with arctic drilling south I don’t think you can use 540 (thickness) as the rain-snow line. will snow at higher thicknesses.

    1. Where that arctic air drilling south and the warmer moist air from the storm meet is where the best snow growth will be. I think it will be right over us.

  231. I think 6-9 for a large swath seems pretty conservative, no? I’m probably completely wrong. I’m usually wrong.

  234. HPC write up.

    …STORM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S…

    PREFERENCE: ANY 12Z GFS OR 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN

    MODELS CONTINUE IN LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT. THERE ARE NO
    OUTLIERS…AND THE 12Z NAM COULD CERTAINLY BE APPLIED. THE NAM
    ESCAPED OUR PREFERENCE BECAUSE OF SOME DIFFERENCES AT A CRITICAL
    TIME…15/12Z WHEN THE COASTAL PORTION OF THIS STORM IS
    INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF BOSTON MA. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE NAM IS
    JUST SLIGHTLY DEEPER THAN THE MULTI MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
    CONSENSUS…BUT THIS MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO MORE STRONGLY BACKED
    SURFACE WINDS AND COLDER THERMAL PROFILES IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
    LOW TRACK. THIS IDEA IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE AND SHOULD NOT BE
    IGNORED…BUT FOR OUR PREFERENCE WE SIDE WITH THE EXCELLENT
    AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY SEEN IN THE LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE. THE
    UKMET IS NOT INCLUDED BECAUSE IT HAS TENDED TO TAKE THE SURFACE
    LOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH WARMER THERMAL PROFILES OVER
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

  235. I’m Back. Been tied up since 10AM.

    Ok took a quick look see.

    GFS is Crap.
    CMC looks awesome. Keeps Boston all snow or a mix/change to sleet for awhile
    at worst. qpf=1.2 to 1.6 inches.
    UKMET is garbage
    Euro still has 850MB temps creep above freezing, BUT tracks the system near
    the Benchmark and NOT over the Canal or the Cape. GOOD NEWS.
    NAM is out of this world and a High resolution model.

    Add it all up and I think we are in for it. IF BZ still has 3-6 inches for Boston, then
    I think they have missed the mark. ALSO IF Eric Fisher sticks to that this evening,
    then my opinion of him has dimished.

    I think Logan comes in with 7 or 8 inches and the neighborhoods 10+ inches.

    Just my humble little ole opinion.

    We shall see.

    I have to take care of a few things, after which I want to dig into the SREF
    and by then, I hope the FIM 12Z data is in.

    Btw, Hadi, do you have the qpf figures for the EURO. I don’t care about the snow
    map, because I think it is wrong.

  237. OS, Fisher brought a large area of 6-10” into immediate west of boston and southwest of boston into western norfolk and northern bristol counties

  238. A little off topic, but there are a couple lines of snow showers/squalls in northern Mass and southern NH. I wonder if any of those could sneak south ?

    Its 7F !! in Caribou, ME and ……….. Burlington, VT and Watertown, NY are in free-fall through the mid teens.

  239. Oh, one more thing that has not been discussed, I don’t think.

    During at least part of this storm there is going to be a HUGE temperature
    differential between the 850MB temperatures and the Ocean Surface Temperature.
    With a NE wind, I can’t help but think that OCEAN ENHANCEMENT (Ocean Effect snow) is in play along Eastern Sections. Most notably Hingham, Weymouth, Abington, Norwell, Rockland, Hanson and adjacent areas.

    Just a thought. Any comments?

    2. Completely agree OS. I remember a storm in the late 90’s when it wa 8 degrees and a wind off the water and that start the snow 8 hours earlier and was quite heavy and not part of the original totals.

      1. I’ve been in Hingham now since 2003 and have seen this a number of times. Winds from the North don’t do much as they are only passing over a small bit of water (inner and outer harbor) but winds coming out of the NNE or NE that are sucking down very cold air from Maine and beyond do enhance snowfall in my area. Snow seems to start earlier (albeit light). Also depending upon how strong that enhancement is I’ve seen small accumulations within a mile of the water while is South Hingham near the Norwell line there is absolutely nothing.

        Lock and Load…Winter’s here 🙂

  240. What’s the deal on Tuesday? I don’t mind Saturday’s storm…it’s that time of year…I just hate the back to back snow storms. A few years ago we were in a Sunday/Thursday(?) weekly snow schedule.

    2. As of yesterday, it was a disturbance coming into the northern Great Lakes (like a clipper) that would redevelop off of our coastline, mostly east of us, after it had passed our latitude. I think its supposed to be a big storm for the maritimes. Perhaps with a .40 EURO QPF, it is developing closer, but I’m not sure because I cant see the EURO run right now.

  241. Something that drives me nuts: When people refer to the “immediate coast” – what does that mean? I live in Boston, in the South End. We are not very far from the coast. Am I considered immediate coast? People also tend to talk about Boston like it’s Logan. Boston is not Logan. Stop that! 😀

    Sorry, had to get that off my chest!

    1. I’m Afraid that Southie is pretty much considered immediate coast line.
      After all Carson Beach, Castle Island and the Harbor is right there. 😀 😀 😀

    2. I think of the immediate coast as within 1-2 miles. 🙂

      The reason that I use that approach is completely related to living in Marshfield. After 2 miles away from the water, I’ve seen plenty of snow accumulate and yet within 2 miles, little or nothing.

  242. Ds I would not consider the south end immediate coast. The sour shore/ cape is. I live in pembroke and Tom marshfield that is along the coast. The official snow total number is measured at Logan. So when you hear that, that could be it. So all winter if Roxbury had 20 inches and Logan 17.5 the official number would be 17.5. If I explained Logan wrong I’m sorry. Take care.

    1. I think we should start a campaign to move the snow measurement to the Common. Measuring at Logan is just ridiculous! 🙂

        1. I believe that a long time ago in a galaxy far far away measurements and data were collected on the Common.

      2. Is Logan even real Boston terra- ferma or just a man-made island? It is not like anyone lives there (except the snow owl).

        1. Logan is part landfill and part existing land. It does encompass what was once Governor’s, Apple and Noodle Island.

    1. Hi Charlie,

      South END, is different the Southie (or South Boston). People often get them confused. 🙂

      South end is the block between Columbus Ave-Albany Street, and from Mass Ave-East Berkley St.

  244. I know it’s a ways away, and a lot can change, but I have a question that I’m concerned about on the models, am I seeing a moderate thaw with a big rainstorm the week of Christmas to melt all the snow away? I’m usually the bear of bad news and I continue today 🙂 after this snow event, a moderate thaw is on the way, maybe 50 degrees later this upcoming week, in the meantime we have a light to moderate impact on the way with most receiving 6 inches, some locales a little less, some locales a little more 🙂

  245. Ok 12Z FIM is in.

    It is pretty juiced up. Total qpf between 1-2 inches.
    HOWEVER, it has 850MB temps rise above freezing just after 48 hours through
    hour 54.

    Just reporting here, NOT forecasting.

    Just a bit more information to digest.

  246. Tweet from Matt Noyes

    @MattNoyesNECN: In fact if current 4cast precip falls with 15 or 18 to 1 fluff factor, some favored towns could hit 15″+. But…steady as she goes.

  247. Charles I believe the thaw will happen in January as I predicted in my winter outlook, which this month went as planned. I saw some long range information that Christmas could be very, very cold and than the temps will start to moderate.

    1. I don’t have a winter outlook recorded for you. Can you post it please so I can record it. I know you said 3 storms before Christmas. Tomorrow sure looks to be #1 but that’s all I have. Thanks

      1. I’ll havto go back and find it if you need it. You did read and enjoy it as you told me. I won’t have time today but ill find it and let you know. It was right before thanksgiving.

          1. John – this is what I found – and I have recorded it. I did have that you predicted 3 storms prior to Christmas so added this to that.

            I reviewed many, many forcasts all fall and they all call for above in the tempature dept. with the exception on what I think will be a warm January after the cold of November and December will go right back to cold throughout march.

            2. Nov 28th at 9:05 is when John gave his winter prediction. Sorry…I was bored today and went on a mission when I saw this post. 🙂

  250. Those double digit amounts will be in the interior. Have to watch tomorrow where the heavy bands of snow setup shop. If caught under one of those heavy bands of snow for a while watch out for a pretty good dumping of snow.

  253. Ch 5 is sticking to its am map.

    Ch 4 upped amounts west and north of Boston from 6-10 to 8-12; upped south of Boston from 3-6 to 4-8 and upped the cape from 1-3 to 2-4

    Ch 7 moved the 6-9 back to just north of the pike between 128 and 495 and then moved the 3-6 back into the Attleboro/Providence corridor; it also moved it’s 1-3 more inland from Plymouth

    All are seeing a potential of a foot (tops) inland. The coast seems to have them all a bit off from each other with 4 seeing most to 7 seeing least. That is my interpretation for what it’s worth !

  254. 18Z NAM snowmap, down some. Perhaps due to some sleet and perhaps
    some wetter snow near the coast?

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054

    NAM brings 850MB freezing line very very close to Boston:

    This is the closest pass of the 0C line and even this is AFTER the bulk of the precip
    has fallen as snow. So if the QPF isn’t down, then it has to be RATIOS and/or some
    sleet.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=045&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

      1. Oh ya, just having a problem understanding why the
        totals are down, IF qpf is similar? Doesn’t make sense.

  257. 18z nam is slightly warmer, but it brings in heavy snow, and at the tail end of the heavy snow, it changes to sleet and freezing rain and for some south and east of Boston plain rain, before the changeover it dumps 6+ inches, slompy!!!!

  259. Temps aloft and at surface are way below zero. All along we knew the biggest snows would be just north and west. That was never in question. Question was how much in the city and inside 95

    1. Adding to that, take a look at this surface map. Look at those temperatures
      on the other side of the front about to drop on by, if it hasn’t done so already!!

      http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

      This is one extremely COLD air mass that this system is about to bump into.

      I don’t care if there is little or no phasing, there is tons of juice being FORCED
      up and over and into the Frigid air mass. There is going to be plenty of
      snow, even enough to make me happy. 😀 😀 😀

  261. Looking at the SREF, ratios at the start of the storm are projected to
    be 30:1, dropping to 25:1 and then 15:1 for a portion before dropping
    to 10:1 and then finally to 5:1 (sleet mixed? Wet Snow?)

  263. Sorry to interrupt the weather. There has been another school shooting….in Littleton, CO, at the high school. The shooter (a student) took his life. One minor was taken to the hospital in very serious condition. I thinking all of the prayers we have will help him/her. As I watched the aerial view of the kids at the school, all I could think is that this is becoming far too familiar.

    1. How awful! And this comes on the day before the one year anniversary of the Sandy Hook tragedy. When will it stop???

      1. I just don’t know. I can say that the Sheriff dept in Littleton sure did a wonderful job. But even that is upsetting since it means we have the need to perfect responses to school shootings.

    2. I just can’t believe this stuff and yet there are those who still do NOT
      believe in any kind of gun control and background checks. For the life of
      me I’ll never understand! So horrifically tragic!

      1. Well we don’t know the details yet so let’s not assume this was a background check or gun control issue. There are bad people out there who sometimes succeed in doing bad things…always have and always will. In this case, it was a shotgun…which has been the weapon of choice since Biden told people to get one. We will see what the details unfold.

        1. I understand that. I’m just saying that with all of
          these incidents, there is absolutely NO movement
          on the gun control issue.

          I’d be fine with banning guns totally and completely, but
          I’d be very happy with just eliminating assault weapons and having STRICT background checks.

          This crime could have been committed with a dad’s
          hunting rifle or as you said, shotgun.

    1. Wondering IF that might be on the low side? We shall see.

      Either way, I’m fine with it.

      IF there is any change and/or mix, it comes late after the majority of precip
      has already fallen as SNOW. 😀 😀 😀

  269. I still don’t think we mix as much on the south shore as Mets are thinking. That High is to strong and bitterly cold. I say we should expect about 12″ from Boston on north.

  271. general thinking
    2-4 south coast,cape and islands
    4-8 areas east of i95
    8-12 areas west of i95
    some locations north of the mass pike could see 12-18 inches though exact placement of these pockets uncertain.

    1. level 4 conditions every where but the south coast,cape and islands where a level 2 road condtions level 3 east of i95

      1. Nicely done Matt.

        Actually, HADI and I are WEST of I95 or at least where
        I95 was going to be. 😀 😀 😀

      2. Nice Matt. What about folks right on 95? Which way do u think the snow amounts with swing? More to the 4″ or more to the 8″? I’m right on 95 just south of Norwood.

  272. Here is the 18Z GFS snowmap???????? I don’t buy this at all.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121318&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060

    Those totals, YET, the run looks colder to me? What do others think?

    Here is the farthest North pass of the 0C 850MB line:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013121318&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=045

    Seems farther SOUTH to me than on the 12Z run.

    12Z run:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013121312&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=048
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013121312&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=051

    1. Umm, it looks like this will start fairly early tomorrow. Around 1PM or there abouts:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_027_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=027&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

      According to the NAM, surface temperatures from Boston N&W remain
      BELOW freezing:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_042_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

      1. Should I get out and run my errands tonight, or will I have time to sneak in a grocery store run in the morn?

        1. I think your good. Go early to beat the crowd. Daytime travel tomorrow should be fine. After 10pm and later things get hairy. This won’t last all Sunday over early to mid morning and may have breaks of sun.

  274. From NWS:

    WHILE LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION MIDDAY SATURDAY…EXPECTING A FRONT-END THUMP OF SNOW WITH THE ACCOMPANYING BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /WITH THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN MIXING IN ALONG THE
    IMMEDIATE SOUTH-COAST/ BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING TOWARDS EARLY- MORNING SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES TO 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE…WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING AROUND A 3-HOUR WINDOW /SNOW BURST/. AGAIN…A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION OCCURS AROUND 3Z TO 9Z SUNDAY.

  276. Best tweet of the day.

    @SurfSkiWxMan: Warmest dewpoint in Boston is 30 on GFS, 24 on NAM. We don’t see rain storms with such low dewpoint. Mostly snow BOS, let it ride 7″ (thick)

  277. Boston is in the 4-7 zone but also right on the line of the 8-12 zone and Harvey said that was no accident and depends on the wind and warm water. He does think it will go to mix or Rain but said it may be to late and storm would be winding down. He said boston is always a tough call this time of year. He may have said this is an unusual setup because that cold air will lock right in colder than it is now.

  279. I have a kind of weather related question – Does it really help to put your windshield wipers in the up position during a snowstorm, or can it cause stress the wiper arms?

    1. If there is melting and freezing, the wipers when down can stick to the windshield. If they are not completely freed, you can hurt the motor by running them. Also chipping ice around a frozen wiper can hurt the blades. I’ve left them up as long as I’ve owned cars. Learned to do it as a kid in NH, especially on cars where I had hidden wipers I’ve never had trouble because of it. This is my opinion only. Definitely do your research for your car I’d say talk to your dealer but I have no faith in dealers. 🙂

      1. Thank you, Vicki! My car has a heat strip on the windshield where the blades lay. Just thought I put it out there since I’ve never done it before, but see many cars owners that do.

  280. Has anyone noticed the snow for tuesday? Also 12/23 the GFS has been showing a storm around that time looks like a similar setup as tomorrow’s storm right before Christmas.

  284. 8pm temps :

    Caribou, ME : -5F and there’s a 12 knot breeze !! Portland, ME : 12F, Burlington, VT : 8F, Portland, ME harbor buoy has an airtemp of 18F.

    1. They are unbelievable ….. It will settle in down here tonight. Thinking that most of the interior is going to struggle to get out of the teens tomorrow with the clouds moving in.

  288. Watch for mesoscale banding features showing up on 00z nam. I really think this storm will over produce. That cold is like adding gasoline to a fire.

  290. waiting for the next nam before i post new numbers . Ace i would go toward the lower end. but you will see my map posted in about an hour or so.some changes to my thinking.

      1. looking at some of the wind now that some models are predicting shows a tricky one for anyone south and east of boston. mainly all due to directions of the wind.

        1. One thing to keep in mind is how cold it will get over the water. Just a few posts ago Tom indicated the Portland harbor bouy showing an air temp of 18 with a sea water temp of 46! The Boston bouy and Stellwagen bouy air temps are 27 and 26 at 9pm while the water temp is 46. The cold air seeping southward. Also noted at 9pm that Boston (at Logan) is down to 23 and some areas just outside the city (north and south) are already in the upper teens.

    1. We are heading up to Amherst tomorrow morning to pick up my son at UMass and then my daughter has PT appointment also out in the same area at 1pm and we should be back on the road after a late lunch and hopefully home just after dark. Looks like we will have some snow on the way back but not the heavy stuff.

        1. Actually Matt…UMass’ reputation is no longer the party school it once was (no more ZooMass). In fact it’s rated one of the top 100 schools in the country. It’s also part of the 5 college consortium (UMass, Amherst, Smith, Hampshire and Mt. Holyoke). It’s also not in the middle of nowhere. Both Northampton and Amherst have vibrant communities with great music, restaurants, entertainment, etc. So you might want to rethink your comment 😉

  296. Just got off the phone with my cousin who lives in Montreal. Thermometer at his house was right at 0 degrees.

    1. I used to trek up to Montreal quite often in the 90s (love the city and the people) and I remember being up there one weekend when it was at least 15-20 below fahrenheit. I thought that all those hardy Canadians would still be out and about on a Friday and Saturday night hitting the local watering holes, etc. Boy was I wrong. In many a pub on Bishop Street I was the one only a few patrons.

  297. If 32F has a snow ratio of 10:1, then ….. does anyone know what the ratio is for temps near 20F ?

    The reason I ask ….. Lets be conservative and say an area around 495 receives .75 melted, but really doesnt get above 20F the entire event. I suppose that could translate to 12 or more inches of fluff.

    1. i have a chart that i could possibly type out.
      im looking at that expecially for areas outside of 128 and north of the pike.where i think it will be very fluffy snow and “good ski snow” best stuff called powder

  301. Pete’s evening blog explains that there is no blocking mechanism in the atmosphere to bring the cold air down to Boston and the South Shore, therefore a change to rain is inevitable as far as he is concerned.

    I sure hope he is wrong on that.

    1. Interesting…what if the cold air is already there? I wonder if he really meant that there is no blocking to hold it in?

  305. I’ve always thought a changeover Boston south was inevitable, it even looks like during the height it changes to rain

  311. Personally I know nobody wants to hear it, but this is a snow to rain scenerio especially south and east of Boston imo, but not before dumping 3-6 inches in Boston and south of city, n and w accumulations will steadily increase to close to a foot when you get out by Lowell

  312. I dont like the track or the thermal profiles on this NAM run.

    Look at what is going on in northern New England and all of southeastern Canada. Its frigid !! There is a very large, dense, cold dome of air to the north of New England. That cannot be discounted as an easily moveable object.

    I cant buy into a low just coming up right across Cape Cod with these mild thermal profiles.

    Going with a track over Nantucket or even ever so slightly SE of Nantucket …. Extremely cold surface temps holding throughout the event not too far inland from the coast and the column to stay cold enough for all snow staying just south of Boston.

    1. Couldn’t agree more Tom.

      Question for you (and think it has been asked before but I forget the answer). Where are the Marshfield obs taken? The Airport? I’m asking due to the difference of 9pm temps between Plymouth and Marshfield. 18 at Plymouth and 27 at Marshfield.

      1. Yes, at the airport. Where the airport is……. is far enough east down Rt. 139 that, a north, even a northwest breeze is off the ocean. So, its showing some of the “moderation” of the ocean.

    1. Nice work Matt. Your map could be spot on especially if the cold core erodes or is pushed away. If not I think I think your 2-4 get pushed down to the canal area. Even with a mix and a possible change I think that area could still see 4-8. Fun stuff.

    3. Nice map matt. Probably very close at this point. All the snow totals by area are so sensitive to how far the cold air pushes down.

  321. Portland, ME is down to 9F at 10pm …… Burlington, VT is 4F.

    My guess is Logan’s about 12F around sunrise tomorrow and its 5-10F in the suburbs, probably all with below 0F dewpoints.

  322. The obs. temperature at Marshfield tomorrow morning just prior to/at sunrise could be the key as to any mix/changeover at Logan later.

    I believe Tom knows what I mean. 😉

    4. As of the 6:00 news Harvey was thinking boston would mix towards the end and that would be after the damage is done. But also cautioned that the warm air in boston was a wild card if you will. If it were to come in earlier than that would keep the precip down.

    5. Boston bouy and Stellwagen Bank Bouy air temps both down to 24 at 10pm while the Portland bouy air temp is down to 15.

        1. Our new med center building as well as our business offices are now in Longwater Place in Norwell and its in a watershed zone…no salting allowed. The other morning even with the sanding it was still a little slippery.

    1. Has he looked at the temps in the past couple of hours…it seems like it’s headed that way. Wow…only time will tell.

  325. Artic air? Where the hell has he been. It’s freezing out and Harvey said it will be colder tomorrow. That guy has some you know what. No way that happens. 3inches way to low.

    1. I just checked the thermometer out by the garage…19 degrees already here in Hingham (West Hingham to be exact)

  326. Pete must be basing his forecast on GFS. Who knows I just font see that.

    Tweet from Eric F

    @ericfisher: Just to keep things interesting, 00z GFS comes in very warm. Not agreeing with it. We’ll see how the cards fall!

    1. Matt Noyes showed this morning that Boston would be 15 at noon tomorrow. Will be interesting to see what it ends up being.

  327. Yes but again where is the surprise. All week models have been over amped with snow, than its cold and than warm only to have the next run better. I said earlier the models still won’t have a handle on this tonight. Wait till tomorrow.

    1. Hi weatherwiz, just a little tip for you, if you click on any name under ” recent comments” on the top right of this page it will take you all the way down to the last comment

        1. Lol, I got to give credit to Vicki actually, she is the one who mentioned it last year during winter storm Nemo, either way I am glad I helped!

  329. The Low on the 00z gfs looks to come right over the south shore if I’m seeing it correct. I think thats way to far north. Nowcasting starting tomorrow.

  330. Good night all!! Let’s hope the 06z runs come in a little colder and the Euro doesn’t come in like gfs because we might have some issues then.

  333. Pete sticking with 3 and Harvey 3-6. Harvey still thinking late for change but could not say with confidence. All mention the ocean temp of 46 degrees. Also tj the immediate coast was mentioned and was cape and islands where 1-3 and will be washed away. I still think boston gets at least six before change possibly more.

    1. Pete has Natick at 21 and Logan at 35. Depends on where coastal front sets up. We need the primary low not be a strong. We will watch and see what happens.

  334. Just noticing that the 11 pm readings indicate that under cloudy skies temps in the south may be going down a bit slower than I thought they would. Will have to see how that plays out.

  336. As of 11:00 pm newscasts snow totals for Boston: ALL have changeover to rain 🙁

    Pete = 3″ (UGH!) 🙁

    Eric = 4-8″

    Harvey = near 6″

    Kevin = near 6″

    This could very well be a BIG BUST for Boston! In fact Harvey said that if it wasn’t for the very cold high, snow would be even less if any at all this being December…UGH! 🙁

    Good night all…and perhaps “good night” for snow as far as Boston is concerned????

    We will see. 🙁

  337. Holy model hugging Batman, everyone stay the course – thinking it is time to toss out the models and go with some old-school, Don Kent, ninja forecasting. Camp Snow is open and the membership desk is following Storm Warning protocol – Camp Rain refugees will be allowed in after 6″ of snow has fallen in their respective community.

  338. Not liking the trend of stronger low, it destroys the cold air. We need the primary low to be further offshore. If low goes where gfs/ nam have I would agree that inside 95 will be turn to rain quicker.

  341. Not changing my thinking and will not latch onto each model run. This cold dome is undeniable. It will be difficult to scour out. Poor initialization with latest NAM. GFS continues to have a westward bias. Storm should remain just south and east of CC resulting in a colder solution than the models depict. I still remain in the camp of a generalized 4-8+ for many locations except higher amounts in the worcester hills and possibly along the I95 corridor should a coastal front set up.

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