Will The Cold Hold?

666 Comments

3:37AM

First, apologies for lack of entry during Friday. On top of very busy schedule which never really allowed me to update, nasty cold keeping me slow. Battling, and winning, but it’ll take a few days. Ah the joys. Actually I can’t complain. The last few years I seem to fight them off very well while everyone around me gets nailed by them. Once in a while one sneaks in. Such is life.

Weekend Storm: It comes down to this. The cold high versus the low with milder air. My original thinking of a weaker, colder scenario looked great on paper, but the problem is this – the high to the north, though associated with dense, cold air, is not that strong, and is giving way somewhat. This allows the primary low to hold a bit longer, and the secondary low to try to form a little closer to the primary as it looks for a weakness in the high to the north. Does that mean that the models trend of a coastal hugger and a milder solution will verify completely? Not necessarily. The cold air will be tough to dislodge. I do believe a snowier solution continues longer than models have on current runs (as of the writing of this blog). But I still believe that model precipitation is over-forecast, and the fast-moving nature of the system will also limit what totals may have been. That said, other than the South Coast and immediate shoreline of eastern MA, the vast majority of the measurable precipitation over southeastern New England is still likely to fall as snow, with a moderate accumulation (up slightly from the light-to-moderate call yesterday). The bulk of this will occur between midnight and dawn (tonight/Sunday). As Sunday goes by, it may be mild enough for a mix/rain in many areas as precipitation tapers off, but it is unlikely that any heavy rain will occur. Accumulations of snow with this system will likely range from an inch or 2 over Cape Cod and the South Coast to 2-4 inches over the remainder of southeastern MA and interior southern RI and possibly the immediate shoreline of eastern MA, 4-8 inches most other areas with some isolated greater-than-8 amounts over interior eastern MA and southern NH. A few double-digit totals are possible, but I don’t expect these to be the rule. **IMPORTANT NOTE** .. With a boundary located not far from the coast, there will likely be a very sharp gradient in snowfall amounts and snow consistency from wetter near the shore to fluffy and dry not that far inland. Coastal flooding may occur on east-facing shores at the times of high tide, but this is not a super-powerful storm so flooding will be on the minor side and mainly in the most prone areas.

Next week: Quieter pattern returns, chilly early to mid week with a possible episode of insignificant snow around Tuesday with a low pressure trough, and a milder end to the week (though that warm-up looks relatively brief with a return to cold not far behind).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Fading sun as high to middle clouds thicken. Some lower clouds drift in from ocean in the afternoon and may bring isolated snow showers to east coastal locations. Highs in the 20s. Wind light NE to E.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow develops but is mainly on the light side through midnight, then grows heavier overnight when most of the accumulation takes place, but a mix/change to sleet/rain takes place South Coast then working slowly northward toward dawn, and immediate eastern shores of MA later, cutting down accumulations some (for numbers, see discussion above). Temperatures steady in the 20s inland, rising to the lower to middle 30s South Coast. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts immediate eastern shores and South Coast, NE to N 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH inland.

SUNDAY: Overcast morning with precipitation ending southwest to northeast as light mix/rain most areas, some snow holding interior MA and NH, but little additional accumulation. Mostly cloudy afternoon with spotty drizzle or very light snow. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE (except variable in far southeastern areas) shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 30.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 30.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

666 thoughts on “Will The Cold Hold?”

  3. Thanks TK. The trend is your friend and everything is trending warmer but I still say models are way to warm and there maybe a mix up into Boston. Will see.

  4. I think this is a good write up out of NWS taunton.

    .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/…
    TAKING A FEW POINTS INTO ACCOUNT…THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
    NORTHEAST IS IN PROXIMITY TO NANTUCKET BY SUNDAY MORNING. BULK OF
    THE F-GEN/ISENTROPIC FORCING IS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS NORTH-
    NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
    COLLOCATED WITH THE ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM-MOIST CONVEYOR
    BELT. THIS ACTIVITY IS CENTERED SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY-MORNING
    SUNDAY. THEREAFTER…DRIER AIR QUICKLY ENTRAINS WITHIN THE MID-
    LEVELS TO THE REAR WIPING OUT PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES INTO SUNDAY
    MORNING. QPF AMOUNTS FROM A CONSENSUS BLEND OF FORECAST
    GUIDANCE…BUT WEIGHED ALSO WITH WPC/RFC GUIDANCE.

    AS TO THE LOW-LEVEL PROFILE…BOTH THE AGEOSTROPHIC AND ISALLOBARIC
    WIND COMPONENTS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE
    INTERIOR…WITH EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE IMMEDIATE SHORES AND
    ADJACENT COASTAL PLAINS /COASTAL FRONT SETUP/. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
    ALOFT PUSHES A WARM-AIR INTRUSION /AROUND H8/ INTO SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND AROUND EARLY-SUNDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
    FORECAST GUIDANCE…BUT GAVE WEIGHT TO 2M TEMPS AND SURFACE WINDS
    FROM WRF-MODEL GUIDANCE…BACKING WINDS NORTHERLY ACROSS THE
    INTERIOR.

    CONSIDERING THE DISCUSSION ABOVE…WHILE LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
    OVERSPREAD THE REGION MIDDAY SATURDAY…EXPECTING A FRONT-END THUMP
    OF SNOW WITH THE ACCOMPANYING BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND /WITH THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN MIXING IN ALONG THE
    IMMEDIATE SOUTH-COAST/ BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING TOWARDS EARLY-
    MORNING SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES TO 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
    POSSIBLE…WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION OCCURRING AROUND A 3-HOUR
    WINDOW /SNOW BURST/. AGAIN…A MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
    THE REGION OCCURS AROUND 3Z TO 9Z SUNDAY.

    INTO EARLY-SUNDAY MORNING…WITH THE WARM-INTRUSION ALOFT THERE WILL
    BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET-FREEZING RAIN ALBEIT
    LIGHT AND BRIEF. AT THIS TIME…WITH DRY-AIR WIPING OUT ICE-NUCLEI
    WE COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE PRECIP TYPES OVER A MAJORITY OF
    THE AREA…BUT NOT LONG THEREAFTER SHOULD SEE ALL PRECIP COME TO AN
    END AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH NO MORE
    THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

    DID NOT CHANGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
    WHILE INITIALLY SNOW…A CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR FROM SNOW TO SLEET-
    FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SHORES AND COASTAL PLAINS /ESP SOUTH AND
    SOUTHEAST/ CHANGING TO PLAIN RAIN. THIS SHOULD KEEP SNOW TOTALS
    LOWER IN THOSE REGIONS. IN ADDITION…THE NORTHERLY FLOW FROM COLDER
    HIGH PRESSURE MAY KEEP THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW SLIGHTLY SOUTH AS
    SEEN PER NAM- AND WRF-SOLNS…AND THIS WOULD CONSEQUENTIALLY IMPACT
    THERMAL PROFILES AND QPF AMOUNTS AT THE SURFACE. THUS SOME CONTINUED
    UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

    OVERALL…WINTER STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL INTERIOR LOCATIONS
    INCLUDING NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND THE BOSTON-METRO AREA WHERE
    CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR WARNING-LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. WILL
    KEEP INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE WATCH DUE TO THE
    CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. GALE WARNINGS OVER A
    MAJORITY OF THE WATERS FOR THE EVENT. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES FOR
    THE EAST COAST WITH THE EXPECTATION OF WAVES ALONG THE SHORES AROUND
    5 TO 10 FEET WITH A 1.5 TO 2.0 FOOT SURGE DURING SUNDAY MORNINGS
    HIGH TIDE.

  5. There will be a changeover but not before an accumulating snow happens. Its all about the track and this storm is coming to close and will allow some of that mild air from the ocean to come ashore.
    I think most areas see a level 2 snowfall with the exception of areas in southeastern SNE where it will be a level 1 snowfall.
    I got some VERY light snow falling outside my window here in CT right now that has covered the cars. A little appetizer before the main course comes in tonight.

  7. I’m pretty excited to see how this all shakes out! I’m heading to Maine for the day but will be back around 6pm. I’ll check in from my phone keep me posted all.

  8. Tom there might be a half inch where I am prior to the main event coming out. The thinking is a 6-10 snowfall where I am and then the mix of sleet and freezing rain coming in after that.

  9. Thanks TK

    Sure there are might be mixing at the tail end but I don’t believe in Boston that it really changes over much. The difference in snow totals is a lesser ratio.

    Heading out to see Santa this morning so will check later on.

  11. I also exited to see how long the sense cold air hangs on. Should be a good storm for history books in early December.

  12. Also very curious where the track ends
    Up going. Going to make a huge difference of its 25 miles difference.

  13. Logan down another degree to 11F, dewpoint -8F. Its cloudy, not that the near solstice sun could help much if it were out.

    1. I saw that.

      One thing I’d like to note. Not sure it means anything, but here it is:

      Were out last night with friends in Canton. When we left their house just
      before 11PM, it was 21. This part of Canton is say what 10-12 miles SSW
      of JP. Driving home it was 20 in Westwood, 19 in Dedham and 18 in JP.

      Looks to me that there might be a rather sharp South to North
      temperature gradient that could come into play.
      Perhaps Boston holds into the colder air longer than models portray???

      Just a thought.

    2. Also and this could be telling Provincetown is 19 with a North wind (over the water but then again almost everything is over the water out there).

      1. That is a good thing. Encouraging for now, at least until the
        wind SWINGS into the SouthEast out there.

  15. Absolutely any slight shift in either direction will make a big difference when it comes to precipitation type and amounts of snow. Another thing to look at is where do the heavier bands of snow setup shop. Your under one of those you could get a good dumping of snow.

  16. TK, many thanks and great discussion. You said some of what I was going to Post.
    Mainly, that previously it looked like the high was going to hold it’s ground. Now it
    appears it will be retreating. BUMMER!

    All of a sudden, the models show a stronger primary storm and the coastal
    develops later and closer to the coast. ALL very BAD signs.

    I don’t like this at all. Not one bit.

    Euro still gives as a nice slug of snow before any changeover. In fact most of the models still show this. The ONLY model that keeps us mostly snow is the UKMET
    and who trusts that?

    Blending the Euro,NAM,GFS and FIM, Still looks like a solid 6+ inches before
    some sort of Mix then sleet and likely RAIN.

    My biggest fear in this, is an EASTERLY to ESE wind on the immediate coast
    possibly flipping it to RAIN even while 850MB temps are cold enough for snow.
    Not an inland problem, just a coastal problem. At the very least, it will be much
    wetter on the coast, holding accumulations.

    This storm has not behaved well at all.

      1. As of 5Am this morning, NWS sticking with Winter Storm
        warning with the following:

        * HAZARD TYPES…A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

        * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

  19. Thank you TK. I hope you feel better quickly

    OS I laughed out loud when you said the storm isn’t behaving. I pictured you giving it a time out and making it sit in one place for an extended period……right over JP 😉

    JJ nice little appetizer indeed

  20. Snow has picked up here where I am a bit. I was expecting a fine light snow on and off throughout the day. Here is the first surprise with this is storm system. Latest RPM model here spitting out just over an inch where I am with this first batch. Even if it goes over
    to that messy mix I won’t be disappointed as it still looks like a pretty good dump of snow.

  21. I will be more than happy with 6 inches of snow. Get to play with the boys outside. Fine by me. Let’s focus on observations and see what unfolds. I will not be dissaponited in anything and no one will be able to tell me otherwise even if we mix. 🙂

    1. Hadi, yes, I think there will be enough of a front end dump, that
      all will be well even if there is the expected changeover.

      Hey, this storm has been all over the map (:D)!! So perhaps there
      is another surprise still left in it.

      Looking at the NEXRAD radars, it looks to me (Call me crazy) that
      an awful lot of over running snow may be setting up Waaaaay
      ahead of the main system.

      “could” this be the surprise?

      Looks what’s happening a JJ’s 😀 😀 😀

  23. I am going to keep an close eye on the temps during the day today where I am (MetroWest). Like to see if we can hold the 20°/21° forecast daytime high.

    1. Captain – I’m not far from you and had thought to do the very same. Will be a more than interesting day, I think!!

  24. Above at 6:10am, I posted a surface analysis of North America. Check out the 1,036 mb high that extends from New Brunswick all the way back to another 1,036 mb high in north-central Canada. Its oriented from NW to SE. Its southeast portion is much closer to New England.

    At 7am, the pressures are still rising a bit in Northern NY State, such as at Watertown. They have some of the highest pressures in the whole northeast.

    Yes, the coastal towns will eventually moderate some at the surface. Yes, there could be some intrusion of >0C air aloft in the column during the event.

    Still, instinctively, I’d be surprised if the relative warmth of the ocean can overcome all this cold, dense air to produce RAIN in Boston and I’d be surprised if the low can come as close as the latest models show to spread >0C air into the column out to 128, maybe even 495. Just too impressive an early season cold dome of air to overcome, I believe.

    1. Tom, that may be true, but so far I do NOT Not not like the positioning
      and placement of the Primary low. It forces the coastal to develop too
      far North and close to the coast.

      I HOPE what you are saying FORCES that coastal a little bit farther South
      and East than currently progged by the models.

      There is ENOUGH COLD around to make something happen.

      Will it or not?

      Guess what? It either will or it won’t.

      We’ll find out later.

      Put your NOWCASTING HATS ON.

  29. Words of wisdom from Matt Noyes: 😀 😀

    “high forecastability does not mean high predictability.” In other words, nature always has the last say.

  32. Marshfield 7:00 am obs = 18F NW 8

    I have seen much higher temps in these situations when other temps are in single digits/teens (upper 20s/low 30s) so there still may be hope for Boston…we will see. 🙂

    What do you think Tom? 😉

    1. The cold air is fully entrenched. I think its also 15F at the buoy 16 nautical miles out in the harbor.

      Until the surface pressures start to fall in northern NY State and northern New England, the arctic air isn’t going to budge.

      I personally dont think these temps are going anywhere today. Perhaps late, late this evening, the coastal temps will rise into the 20s, but I think Logan’s temps during the daylight hours wont get above say 18F and inland locations will stay even lower. One amazingly cold December day !!!!!!

  33. It could and I am noticing the wholes to the west filling in a little bit. There isn’t much on the ground yet. Most of what is on the ground is from the Tuesday system that produced 2.5 inches here Tonight is when it will get interesting when the snow picks up in intensity and see how far that mixing area makes it inland.

  36. Hadi, saw ur post on fb about pete forecasting 3″ for boston last night. I agree, it is irresponsible esp at this point to go out on a limb like that. Its confusing to people since boston is included in the winter storm warning. Last time i checked, 3″ is not warning criteria. Like u said, if hes right its from pure luck. Time will tell.

  40. 508 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013
    WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY.
    * LOCATIONS INCLUDE N. CT NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND WESTERN CNTL EASTERN & NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS S. NH THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF HARTFORD BOSTON WORCESTER SPRINGFIELD NASHUA & MANCHESTER.

    * HAZARD TYPES.A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET & FREEZING RAIN.

    * ACCUMULATIONS.SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES.ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

    * TIMING.LIGHT SNOW WILL PUSH ACROSS S. NEW ENGLAND AROUND MIDDAY. THE SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER & HEAVIER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING BEFORE ENDING AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY.

    * IMPACTS.LOW VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DUE TO SNOW. HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

    * WINDS.NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

    1. I would say, unfortuately, no way that 8-14″ verifies for Boston. My bet is the WSW is downgraded later for eastern MA at least.

  41. Thanks Tom for your thoughts regarding my post above. I am wondering now the fact that it is already snowing in most of CT and now much of western MA (assuming it is not aloft) that the snow here in eastern NE will begin much sooner than expected.

    Based on the sunrise Marshfield obs. I am keeping my fingers crossed that Boston gets a “decent” snowfall and not too much rain at the end. I don’t look forward to shoveling slop and freezing before I get home tomorrow evening from work. 🙂

  42. ACCUMULATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES.ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.
    Sweet! if we actually get 8-14″

  44. Just checked some pressure readings downcoast and don’t see any real signs of a secondary development yet but it was just a quick glance.

  45. Note Buoy temperature 16 MI East of Boston DOWN to 45!

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Dec 14 2013, 6:50 am EST
    Sat, 14 Dec 2013 06:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 15.3 °F (-9.3 °C)
    Dewpoint: 4.8 °F (-15.1 °C)
    Wind: North at 15.7 MPH (13.61 KT)
    MSL Pressure: 1033.8 mb
    Water Temperature: 45.0 °F (7.2 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.9 m (2.95 ft)
    Dominant Period: 3 sec
    Average Period: 3.7 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: North (351 °)

    1. I believe that 45F temp is the lowest in the past few years. If I am not mistaken it has been at 50F and even a bit above at this same time in recent years.

  47. Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
    Coldest temperature in New England this morning? Big Black River, ME, at…wait for it…-34 degrees F. Wow. Big Black River, Maine, not only was coldest in New England, but coldest in the Lower 48 and only 7 reporting stations in Alaska were colder, too! This is a testament to the rock solid cold air that’s entrenched in New England. Such arctic air will result in fluffy snow for much of interior Central and Northern New England, and will make for a sharp coastal front closer to the coast. Check my wall at 9:45 for more on possible impact to snow amounts.

    1. LOL …… Near NYC …. over Long Island and moving eastward over SE Mass.

      He……he……he ……… No chance !! (In my opinion).

      1. Hope you are correct, that the cold FORCES this thing
        farther South and East. In any event, here’s how the run looks:

        This is about as well as we do, prior to some sort of changeover:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_021_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=021&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=11

        Then the 0C lifts Northward:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_024_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=024&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=48

          1. Yes, that is understood, BUT if it is above freezing
            at 850MB it’s NOT going to snow, unless the layer
            is thin enough. 😀 😀 😀

  51. Hey Tom,
    Can you see the low deck of clouds moving in from the East?
    I would imagine them looming underneath the high overcast. 😀

      1. Awesome!! I can’t see anything from here. At least not yet.

        Have to head down to Quincy for a few hours. Check back in
        after lunch sometime.

        Have fun all. 😀 😀

  52. My son is currently in NYC working the Heisman Trophy Awards and plans to fly out to Chicago tomorrow. How much snow is NYC suppose to get, and the time frame? Thanks!

    1. NYC gets about 6 inches according to the NAM before changeover.
      Cut that down and figure perhaps 3-4 inches or so.

      Already snowing there as far as I can tell.

    2. From the heart of the storm itself, I dont think too much ….. However, they are getting more this morning than anticipated (I think). I think NYC airports should be ok for departing flights tomorrow.

    3. My bet is NYC gets even less than the Cape. I think mostly rain for all practical purposes down there with very quick burst of snow.

  55. Starting to see some of the ocean effect …. beginning to flurry.

    Watertown, NY pressure still slightly rising.

    Gee, by 18z, the NAM should have the coastal redevelopment tracking over Albany, NY with the 0C 850 isotherm at the Canadian border.

  56. Shopping day today, heading to the malls today, then haircut at 3pm, then a Christmas party at 7pm, not bad outside 🙂 it’s about now casting, I will say for 1 last time, snow to rain and sleet, 3-5 inches Boston south and east, 5-8 just outside Boston, and 8+ inches well west and north, I think the surprise will be that change to sleet at around 1am or so 🙂

  57. I remember Don Kent always used to show the obs. for Mt. Washington:

    As of 9:00 am = NW 29 mph

    TK – Could this be an indication of a low to our south perhaps passing a bit more SE holding the cold just enough?

    1. It’s an indication that the arctic air is still getting supplied. Doesn’t say much about the low.

  59. Pete went up an inch for boston to a whole 4inches, sorry Pete boston gets more than that but if your right I will credit you. Enjoy the storm all and be safe.

  60. Not that I am looking for any extra competition, but Camp Snow would like to remind everyone that today is Christmas at Fenway. If you don’t have an invite, 2014 tickets (some early games & packages) go on sale at 10AM online. Makes a nice gift for Sox fans or yourself!

    1. And your house will be like Puerto Vallarta in July. 90 degrees all day, and a deluge of rain at night.

      😀 😀 😀

    2. Charlie I think your wrong, they get at least six probably more. While you’re sleeping in your warm house ill shoot you an email at 3am reporting it from the elements. Have a great day.

  66. The high res NAM shows 18 inches in Boston. Not saying it’s gonna happen but keep an eye on that coastal front.

    1. As Harvey said last night he thinks the switch in boston will take place to late in the game but again said it needs to be watched. Have not seen his thinking today.

      1. Basically ch 7 and 5 (on their website maps which are still being updated for all) are forecasting same amounts for entire area. Ch 4 is slightly different but not far off. All have boston in 3 or 4 inch area moving to anywhere from 6 to 8 as you move west.

  72. On the MassPike westbound near just about 2 miles before the I84 interchange and it has started snowing. A fine light snow but getting a little heavier. Sun is still dimly showing through the clouds.

    1. Light coastal snowshowers here. I was up by the seawall, in the direct breeze off of the ocean, and the truck thermometer did not budge from 18F.

  73. Boy, CT in general especially SW Connecticut looks like its getting a moderate snowfall now. I wonder how much JimmyJames has seen so far ?

    1. Hi Tom… I would say about a half inch has fallen so far. The heavier band setting up shop in the southwestern part of CT. The thinking is 1-3 inches during the daylight hours a total of 6-10 inches.

  75. I think a lot of people that have been told 8 inches or more are gonna be sadly disappointed IMO, I still believe a change to sleet and rain by dawn if not earlier will happen holding down accumulations to under 6 inches south and east of Boston IMO

      1. This system still goes back all the way to the midwest. Have to watch when the secondary low forms on the coast
        and see if there are any shifts which will make a difference in snowfall amounts and precipitation types.

  85. Very light flakes coming down in Sharon. I think i’ll end up on the hairy edge of that coastal front. Winds light but starting to shift to the NE

      2. North, its interesting northern bristol county is under an advisory. Its funny bc just a couple miles north of u is norfolk county and theres a warning. I think u may get 6″ right on the edge of warning criteria.

    1. You must be warming up the area around ur house with all that hot air ur blowing around here, lol. 16.2 degrees at my moms house in Attleboro with a very light snow

  94. Looks like the transfer from parent low to coastal low will take place soon. Northern edge of main low looks to have slowed and has stopped progressing north. Precip filling in to our south toward the carolinas and virginia. I think we’ll know soon where this coastal low will develop

  100. Tweet from Eric Fisher

    @ericfisher: 12z ECMWF stays the course. I think the forecast stays on track and cold air plays king. We’ll see! #Travel safe this evening.

  105. Was 18 here a bit ago. Very light snow. Pretty good wind blowing in from the North.

    Hadi, what is the 4KM NAM that Matt Noyes was talking about????

    Euro still calls for a major change over

    Hadi, any 12Z Euro snow maps? Curious.

    Here’s a nice radar loop showing ocean snow:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.246&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.246&centerx=314&centery=337&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0&MR=1

    Interesting that it also showed some snow moving in from the West.
    Pretty cool.

  106. Everything on track so far … I’m sure this event will throw us at least one surprise though.

    Nice ocean effect snow shower cluster on the South Shore.

    I was going to go down to Avon today to visit the Enchanted Village but I have opted instead to wait until next week for that and to take a walk through the woods of Stoneham by 93 (by where the observation tower is). It’s COLD but very little wind and just some light snowflakes falling. Anybody wanna come? Better hurry. I’m leaving now! 😀

    1. Old Salty one of our meteorologists here in CT was mentioning gusty winds a possiblity when the snow was coming down
      heavy this evening but nothing near blizzard conditions. Will see.

  109. Sun has been in and out in Sudbury – but very dimly. A few flakes drifting here and there. We were out earlier – bitterly cold! Sky has that look that a good-sized storm is coming.

  115. I asked Eric Fisher if he bought we would the over to rain and below was his response.

    @ericfisher: Maybe at the tail end, but thinking mostly snow. Maybe a bit more mix/wet right along the water.

  120. Very, very, very light coating of white on roads. SIL decided to refill his skating rink. He thinks the first time evaporated. I think it leaked. Unfortunately, the hose leaked all over driveway on which we can now all skate as it literally froze on contact. I wasn’t home……..you probably could all hear what I had to say when I arrived home 😉

  122. Not to get ahead but both gfs and euro show a little clipper redeveloping for Tuesday. Euro has close to .50 qpf and very high ratios. GFS had .34 qpf and also very high ratios.

        1. Ok thanks. Flying back Wednesday am. GFS has a nice gulf system Xmas eve and them the big chill after that for most of the nation.

  125. Light snow in Natick – pretty, so far roads are clear, but sticking to parking lots and driveways. 18°F

    1. It’s fun/educational, my wife thinks I was nuts for attending – I hope one my kids catches the weather bug.

  135. was getting our first tree and light snow started to fall while picking it out. Its the one that goes in the dinning room dining room is a natuical theme, so the tree is blue and white with stuff thas related to the ocean and coastal areas. The living room is a traditional but loaded tree. tomorrow afternoon will be the tree for the living room. and

  137. We musn’t forget that this storm has a name – Electra. Does that mean we have to refer to this storm all the time as Electra? Electra changing over to rain at this time, etc. 🙂 Just joking.

    2. Our CBS Affliate in CT has named this storm Ashford. The theme this year is towns in CT. The criteria for them naming
      a storm is 6 plus inches of snow or 1/4 inch of icing.

    1. Warning heeded. I may have to cancel my plans to head to Hopkinton for an xmas party. Doesnt start till 7

  140. I’m heading out at 5:30 to go to a Christmas party, as long as u go slow u will be fine, it’s only a 20 min ride, should be fun 🙂

    1. It isn’t my driving I don’t trust, Charlie. I was taught to drive in snow. Its the other drivers and in MA they can be pretty bad…esp if they’ve been at a party

  143. Here you go first increase

    @SurfSkiWxMan: here we go, Dr.@MattNoyesNECN analysis of srref wrref hrref, & a bunch of other meso micro parameters.. We are upping accums, see @NECN 5pm

  144. Eric fisher tweet for next week

    @ericfisher: BTW…don’t look now, but it’s going to snow again Tue into Wed. Not as much, but a possibly plowable event.

    1. He should say models trending warmer. Models and forecast are different things. He should know that. Surprised at how he’s handling this so far. If he ends up being right then so be it.

  148. Wind 070 at Boston Harbor buoy, temp : 24.8F

    Hadi, I wonder if regarding the tweet you posted above ….. They are going to insert a narrow band of higher accumulations somewhere in the 128/495 belt (North of Mass Pike) If its 36F later tonight at the buoy, 30F at Logan and say 17F in Natick, I’d think that should enhance precip amounts just west of the coastal front.

    2. Nam has wind right out of the south at 850mb. for Boston. ugghh for you guys.

      GFS doesn’t look any better.

      Here’s to front end snow. The first ping of sleet you here tonight off your siding will be the signal. They’ll be no flipping back after that.

        1. remember the models showed a “coastal hugger” right from the start like what, a week ago. pretty amazing if you ask me.

  153. Actually, I don’t want to make fun of the name Electra, as NOAA weather radio in Worcester says we might get some thunderstorms tonight. Thundersnow! In any case, they are saying that there will be a mix, even in Central MA tomorrow morning. Who knows. I frankly would prefer all snow – I don’t like the thought of ice.

  154. Guessing ….

    I wonder if when we look back at this storm …..

    It seems like in the last day or 2, the strength of the disturbance north of the Great Lakes sharpened up a bit more than thought. In turn, the flow sharpened more in the eastern third of the U.S.

    Perhaps thats why the primary low has gotten further north and west than expected and of course, that allows a closer pass of the secondary low.

    I’m not giving up the whole ship here. I still think its a majority cold storm in Boston ……….. unlike this morning however, I can see sleet getting to Boston, maybe even a bit of rain and temps getting towards 32-35F for a few hours. Still a decent 4-6 inches of snow first though.

  155. It’s gonna be a close call with mixing in Worcester too. Column is -3c pretty much throughout except for a little tongue between 850 and 800mb where it looks maybe -1c or so. This, between 00z tonight and daybreak. (NAM)

    GFS might be a touch colder. Have to wait for graphics.

  156. Heading home from Amherst . Snow coming down prety well now. Visibility down quite a bit but the roads are still good.

        1. BZ Eric fisher calling for more. I think the confusion is Logan vs boston itself. He needs to be more clear.

  167. Sleet may become an issue sooner than many think. It’s warming faster aloft than projected. Have to watch that. IF that happens, snow amounts will be cut down. Not a certainty yet.

  172. Once the changeover happens your going a rainorama for areas at or near the coast and a mixorama for the interior but not before having a snowrama producing an accumulating snow and in some places several inches.

  176. Trend is clear this winter thus far. Lots of east wind storms. Not a good set-up for classic nor-easters. This one is colder than the previous storm, but in the end not by much. I think Boston will be lucky to get 3 more inches. Temps are climbing rapidly and you can feel the east wind, which is not conducive to great snowfall. Where the low ultimately tracks will be important to determine the storm’s impact. My guess is it’ll be a lot closer to the coast, perhaps even at the coast, which will mean plain rain for Boston and west to 128 early tomorrow and tomorrow morning. Cold rain, yes, but rain nonetheless. The interior will get the jackpot and parts of Maine will get hammered by all snow. Maybe even 18 inches of it.

  180. We got about a half inch or so here, it’s not even snowing right now, at a wonderful Christmas party 🙂

  182. on 128 now near Braintree. Road conditions were bad till hitting around route 135 exit then they got better for awhile till Braintree plaza now going down hill again

  183. I had my enjoyment of the snow when my boys sang Christmas carols at a local nursing home this afternoon. Seeing the snow falling through the window behind the kids while singing Silent Night was absolutely perfect.

    1. For the next few hrs TJ. Assuming the column above remains cold, I’d say that that last ob at the buoy probably says that the boundary layer should be cold enough for a few more hours. Based on the radar, the heavy stuff should be here within an hour. My guess is a chance at another 2-4 inches on top of whats out there now. I have become resigned to the idea of temps going above freezing, maybe to even near 40F for a few hrs near dawn.

      But, another 2-4 and I think I might get to the colder air tomorrow afternoon with some snowcover left.

  187. Up to 25.7 here. 2 inches on the ground.
    Nig flakes now mixing in.

    Was out an about. Roads are slippery.

  188. I have to agree with Joshua’s take on this upcoming winter that many of our “bigger” events will probably be mostly “snow to rain” events. I also suspect that any “all snow” events will be relatively minor disturbances like the potential one coming up Tuesday-Wednesday.

    I would say my snow total of 31.7″ should be pretty much on target. We will see. 🙂

  191. secondary low pressure seems like its not wanting to get its act togeather. thinking more on the lines of 4-8 inches for almost everyone south of rt 2 with 8-16 inches of snow north of rt 2 up into NH and Maine. 2-4 southeast massachusetts. and coastal areas.

    1. Yes …. Generally 10-15F in central and western Mass, all with light N winds.

      Interestingly, its about 15F in both Portsmouth, NH and Portland, ME … Still with light N winds.

      98% sure those two coastal towns will see their winds veer to the northeast, maybe even east and moderate some. I kept 2% uncertainty because I feel like I recall one or two rare situations when that did not happen and then sneakily, the cold air to the north heads back south into northeast Mass and the Boston area.

    1. You sure about that ds. I just told the guys in the shop that and they laughed. Went out to check and its all white. I’m down by north eastern. It’s snow,

  198. Well it looks like the models were right all along. Its early in the season we have plenty of storms to track.

  202. So I have 2″ now. Channel 4 has me in the 2 to 4 range. Should I expect a change over in before midnight? I’m guessing it would be easy to hit the 4″ mark by then.

    1. I think the boundary layer stays cold enough for snow for perhaps 3-4 more hours. It should be snowing harder starting around 9pm. Could snow an inch or so per hour starting maybe by 10pm. Sometime, shortly after midnight, it may go above 32F and/or the column may warm enough to change it to sleet or cold rain. Over by sunrise.

      So, whatever Boston has now, I think add perhaps 3-4, maybe 5 more with a bit of compaction by morning.

  204. Some 8Pm obs:

    Logan: 27, East 20
    Blue Hill: 21, NNE 10
    Norwood: 25, East
    Marshfield: 30, East (It says RAIN. TOM it raining there????????)
    Tauiunton: 28, East
    Fitchburg: 13, North
    Worcester: 11, NE
    Springfield: 13, NNE
    Pittsfield: 12, ENE
    Nashua: 12, North

    Coastal Front?

      2. DaTime Clouds Vsby Wx Temp DP Wind Gs Pw SLP 1Hr 6Hr 24Hr 6Mx 6Mn Mx Mn Dpth SWE

        150055 FEW001 BKN019 OVC030 4 -RA 30 23 1015G20
        150035 FEW001 BKN016 OVC028 4 30 27 0915G23
        150015 SCT016 BKN024 10 30 23 0812G20
        142355 FEW001 BKN016 BKN024 10 28 23 0815G22
        142335 BKN001 BKN010 OVC014 1.75 -RA 28 23 0914G21
        142315 SCT001 OVC013 2 -RA 28 23 0815G20
        142255 BKN004 BKN011 OVC016 1 -SN 28 25 0813G19
        142235 FEW001 BKN016 OVC022 5 -RA 28 23 0810G19
        142215 SCT001 BKN010 OVC021 3 -RA 28 23 0712G17
        142155 BKN001 BKN005 OVC010 1.25 -SN 28 23 0812G19
        142135 BKN001 OVC011 1.5 -RA 27 23 0911G16
        142115 BKN001 OVC010 1.25 -SN 27 21 0611G16
        142055 FEW001 SCT012 BKN019 3 -RA 27 21 0710G14
        142035 BKN019 BKN024 OVC030 10 -RA 27 21 0709
        142015 BKN021 OVC026 10 -RA 27 19 0709
        141955 FEW001 BKN019 OVC026 3 -RA 27 19 0606
        141935 SCT001 OVC019 6 -RA 27 19 0608

    2. Home now. Here in Hingham winds are out of the NNE and light. Snow is still very powdery here with a temp of 24 and about 1.5 inches on the ground.

  205. Take a look at this surface map.
    3 things to notice:

    1. The Juice. Tornado Watch Box
    2. The NE wind at NYC
    3. The North Wind in Central North Carolina.
    Can someone tell me HOW a secondary gets going up near NJ and NYC with
    a North wind down there? Something doesn’t make sense to me.

    Anyone else? Or am I the Looney one?

      1. Agreed, the evidence suggests it should be a bit further south. This does not mean it wont end up tracking near NJ/NYC.

  208. OK now, take a look at this 8PM obs from Central Park NYC:

    New York City, Central Park, NY
    (KNYC) 40.783N 73.967W

    2 Day History
    Last Updated: Dec 14 2013, 7:51 pm EST
    Sat, 14 Dec 2013 19:51:00 -0500
    Weather: Snow Freezing Fog
    Temperature: 22.0 °F (-5.6 °C)
    Dewpoint: 18.0 °F (-7.8 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 85 %
    Wind: from the Northeast at 12.7 gusting to 18.4 MPH (11 gusting to 16 KT)
    Wind Chill: 10 F (-12 C)
    Visibility: 0.50 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1021.1 mb
    Altimeter: 30.18 in Hg

    1. Yup, unlike Boston, any kind of northerly component to their wind in winter is an ice cold breeze, even like 060 or 070. If they switch to 090, they’ll warm up as I think the NYC harbir buoy had an airtemp of 43F !!! But, if their wind stays NE, they wont come close to 32F.

      1. It does, but who knows. I still find it extremely interesting
        that NYC still has a NE wind as well.

        We shall see. Don’t like Matt Noyes Tweet!

  211. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 14m

    Sleet now mixing in with light precip off and on along Route 6, Falmouth to Chatham

    1. 2 1/2 for sure.

      What kind of thermometer you have?

      Mine is Oregon Scientific and I’m at 26.9 and heading up up and away!!!!!

  213. From NWS out of Upton, NY
    BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS…WARM NOSE
    (ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS) ALOFT STILL SITS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
    AREA…SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTH. CLEAR DUAL-POL MELTING
    LAYER/REFREEZING SIGNATURE INDICATED BY KDIX…WITH THE LINE OF
    REFREEZING EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELMAR THROUGH SW MONMOUTH COUNTY
    AND DOWN TOWARDS PHILADELPHIA AS OF 2330 UTC. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
    OBS OF ICE PELLETS/RAIN AROUND THE SIG. THE TRANSITION ZONE IS
    VERY SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE N/NW…INDICATING THAT MOST OF NYC
    METRO SHOULD CONTINUE AS SNOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS…SOME OF
    WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. IMPROVED CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT MOVING
    IN FROM THE SW ALSO SHOWS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MDT-HEAVY SNOW NEXT
    FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY…AS THE HEAVIER BANDING MOVES
    OVERHEAD…THE MELTING LAYER SIGNATURE AT KDIX DOES CONTRACT
    SOME…SHOWING THAT COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER BANDS IS
    SLOWING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MELTING LAYER.

    1. This part is KEY:

      THE MELTING LAYER SIGNATURE AT KDIX DOES CONTRACT
      SOME…SHOWING THAT COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER BANDS IS SLOWING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MELTING LAYER.

    1. Glad you got out. Its wonderful with kids isn’t it? But then I think everyone here is a bunch of kids. Grandson not feeling well but just watching the snow out the window gave hum ear to ear smiles. Shhhhhh don’t tell anyone, I had my nose pressed against the glass smiling ear to ear too.

  215. IMO at least 6 more hours of snow. If by 10 we are snowing at inch an hr we are looking at about 8 inches. We shall see

  217. I’ll depress my Boston friends a bit more ….. Just had to pick my daughter up at the neighbors.

    Mixed precip…… Big snow flakes and some ice pellets. Sorry. 🙁

  218. I was just looking at intellicast and noticed that the rain line was getting close to south coast of RI but as the heavier band came through the rain line was pushed further south. Something to keep an eye on.

  219. Nothing holding the rain line back for long at this point. The High to our north is just not in a good position (too far east). Now for Maine and especially the interior it’s a different story. I think parts of Maine could get 18 inches when all is said and done. But Boston and vicinity is pretty much a dud storm. Would not qualify this as a winter storm for Boston and points south (coastal). More a winter weather advisory.

    1. It’s snowing good here josh I’m in the long wood medical area. I think boston meets the total 3-6 easily.

    1. Tuesday’s a very different scenario. No rain involved on Tuesday, but also very little moisture. Clipper system deprived of moisture will spread some light snow in the area (it’ll be cold enough and the wind won’t be blowing in from the east) before reorganizing itself well to our north and east and impacting the maritimes as a winter storm. Fairly typical clipper scenario. Warm-up late this week will mean that whatever snow we have left is gone by Friday evening/Saturday evening. Will not even go below freezing from about Friday morning to early Monday morning. Southwesterly flow will be the culprit. Sunny spells will feel like spring on Friday and Saturday. Colder as we approach Christmas, but no snowstorms in sight (and also a bit too far in the future to predict at this point).

  221. Looking forward to the Thunderstorms tomorrow morning with pouring rain!! I have to hand it to the mets especially Pete. Also good job Charlie you were all over the east wind. See you guys tomorrow.

  223. Alright I’m definitely out for the night but if you look at the radar echoes things seem to be moving more northeast instead of just north. Anyone else see this?

  226. Will be interesting to see where the secondary is in the 10 o’clock hour. 00Z Nam has it in the northern Chesapeake Bay by then. If it goes off the coast near Norfolk, we may be in better shape.

  236. ughhh, why is it everytime the heavy snow bands approach my town they back up just to the south, It’s frustrating!! Merrimack valley always gets screwed over

  238. Kane,

    I’m not quite sure. I believe they are ripples of intense bands of snow that come in quick drop sometimes several inches and die out. But TK would know better.

  239. Just got in from a xmas party in Hopkinton. Left early but really no need to. About an inch there when we left but roads were terrible, mostly 495. A lot of cars on the roads tonight and lots of spinouts. Got home in Sharon and also about an inch, snowing steadily but not heavy. Radar looks ragged to our south.

  242. Some of the last snow burst the next couples overs then sleet starts mixing, about 2 in a half inches, temp is up to 25.2 degrees

  244. Just got home after a 90 mile drive from CT. Max speed was 40 mph. The Pike is in bad shape. Not plowed at all. Rough sledding.

  246. Retrac,

    I’m in Quincy and those yellow echoes are over me and there ain’t no sleet mixed…Heavy snow right now!

    2. thanks.

      Watching that radar and it must be snowing like crazy right down the pike from Newton to Boston.

      Been snowing hard here for a while now. I’m gonna go see what we’ve got in a minut

  247. The “coastal front” which is really born of the old boundary that came into the region yesterday is wavering around in eastern MA. Watching temps range from mid 10s to mid 20s over a very short distance.

    Pounding snow here right now, nearly 3 inches so far.

    1. We’ll see where it goes. I can see it going over the Cape. Not a huge change. Just have to watch the boundary near the East Coast and the warmer air aloft.

  253. Tweet from Matt N

    @MattNoyesNECN: Snow falling fast and furious Boston area now, 1-2″/hour. Too fast for most plows to keep up. Full-on snowstorm driving.

  255. Tk do you think accumulations will be cut down due to the huge dry slot over CT? or do you think it will fill Again

    1. No. Everything’s on track with the only variable being the boundary over eastern MA. There is another moderate to heavy band south of that dry slot. It’s not a true dry slot as in a dry tongue wrapping into the circulation, just a larger scale form of banding.

    2. Ct. is getting robbed right now. Remember that storm last year where RI had a snow hole sit on them for almost the whole storm.

    1. Not sure how that is possible, given no stations right to the south coast of RI have mixed with anything yet. All snow. Are you sure it isn’t someone dumping sand on you? 😉

  258. This is pretty interesting…

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 30s

    The atmosphere has cooled sufficiently for moderate snow and half mile visibility at Chatham MA, Outer Cape Cod.

  259. Update from NWS

    NOTING PRESSURE FALLS OF 6-7 MB/3 HR IN THE NYC AREA TO E CT AND
    SW RI AT 03Z AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLC STATES. COASTAL
    FRONT HAS SET UP FROM W OF KBVY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
    ROUTE 128 DOWN TO BETWEEN ROUTE 95 AND 24 AT 03Z. E WINDS HAVE SET
    UP ACROSS E MA…BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO RISE. PRECIP
    REMAINS PRIMARILY SNOW EVEN DOWN TO THE VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
    APPEARS THAT THE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR HAS WORKED IN AT THE SURFACE
    AS E WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST…BUT COLDER AIR REMAINS JUST
    ALOFT. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE WITH THE E WINDS UP TO
    900 MB ON THE 00Z KCHH SOUNDING.

  261. Taunton NWS update

    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    1038 PM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

    .SYNOPSIS…
    AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC
    COAST…AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THEN TRANSITION TO
    MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE STORM WILL ALSO
    BRING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. COLDER BUT DRIER WEATHER
    OVERSPREADS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
    THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND TUESDAY WHEN THERE IS RISK FOR SOME
    SNOW.

    &&

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/…
    ***HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND OVERNIGHT***

    1015 PM UPDATE…
    NOTING PRESSURE FALLS OF 6-7 MB/3 HR IN THE NYC AREA TO E CT AND
    SW RI AT 03Z AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLC STATES. COASTAL
    FRONT HAS SET UP FROM W OF KBVY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
    ROUTE 128 DOWN TO BETWEEN ROUTE 95 AND 24 AT 03Z. E WINDS HAVE SET
    UP ACROSS E MA…BUT TEMPS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO RISE. PRECIP
    REMAINS PRIMARILY SNOW EVEN DOWN TO THE VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
    APPEARS THAT THE SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR HAS WORKED IN AT THE SURFACE
    AS E WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST…BUT COLDER AIR REMAINS JUST
    ALOFT. STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE WITH THE E WINDS UP TO
    900 MB ON THE 00Z KCHH SOUNDING.

    AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL NOTED ON LATEST KBOX 88D RADAR
    IMAGERY…WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
    HOURS BEFORE SLOW TRANSITIONING ALONG THE COAST TO MIXED PRECIP
    /MAINLY SLEET THOUGH SOME FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT/ THEN
    FINALLY OVER TO RAIN AS WINDS SHIFT TO SE-S.

  262. NWS and 3 people on the job at a local weather service confirm there is NO sleet anywhere in southern New England, including CC & the Islands.

      1. Then you must be too close to the sand/salt truck in front of you. 😉

        If that is really sleet it is a very remarkable occurrence given the profile of the atmosphere in that area right now. 🙂

  263. That was a profitable half hour blast of snow ……… 3.5 inches total for the whole event.

    Whatever happens the rest of the way …. Cant believe Logan and the coast has had easterly winds for a handful of hours now and the boundary layer has held. Truly impressive cold airmass for mid December, even somewhat in retreat.

    Well, we’ll see if there’s anything left in eastern Marshfield come morning. I hope so, the snow is so much better to look at than brown earth.

  264. Some of the towns that shot into the 20s in eastern MA are now dropping back to 20 or upper teens because of the fact the “warmer” air was very shallow and is now being obliterated by colder air that is just above the surface, being dragged down by this enhanced snowfall.

  266. Got my license a few months ago so my dad just took me for my first drive in the snow…what an experience! Also 3 and 1/8 in so far in westborough

  269. TK, what’s your take on Tuesday? Just curious if I will need to bust out the shovel. Not a fan of back to back storms.

    1. Not likely to be that big, but it would not surprise me if we need to shovel, or at least break out a sizeable broom.

  270. Pete B at 11 PM with has 10-12″ to the north. 6-10″ along the Pike and inside 128. 3-6″ along south shore and SE MA and upper Cape, and 1-3″ outer Cape. Said it will be 40 degrees in the am in Boston but precip will mostly be gone by then.

  274. Barry B has north central MA with 8-12″ and Boston in the 4-8″ range and then less for SE MA. He puts the sleet and rain here between 4-6 am.

  275. I think they are to low on the coast for amounts especially the cape. Several people on twitter are reporting 3 already and still snowing heavily.

    1. I find it amazing that cape cod and the island reporting snow even tho they an east wind and Mansfield reporting sleet, I wonder how that works

    2. The air is not warm enough aloft for a complete melting. If something other than snowflakes are falling there, it may very well be large-sized graupel.

  284. Do a little more investigating people. It is flipping back and forth- I am not a loon and I also am fed up with Charlies stick too but it is …. enough said

  289. Very large graupel coming down in Sharon, its huge, almost pea sized. Snow mixed in too though, more snow than graupel

  290. We’ve got about 3-3 in a half, I think my area comes in around 4 inches now that a change has happened, continuing to snow/sleet and snizzle as Barry Burbank would say 🙂

  291. From NWS
    Coastal front looks to be lying near BVY to just west of BOS then SW to Westerly RI. East of the front temp 30+ , west temps teens and 20s.
    Nantucket just turned to rain too

  293. Ok now that we have confirmed it’s graupel, what is likely causing that is a rapid warm-up at low levels just above a cold surface, and just below what is still very cold up above. You have a PARTIAL melt of clustered snowflakes and a quick refreeze, resulting in what is basically small snowballs. That can sound like and look like sleet when you are driving into it. I have experienced that before.

    So, be nice to each other and enjoy the storm. Keep the obs coming. 🙂

    I am going to attempt a blog update soon. Watching the Bruins anyway.

  296. Complicated. Harvey has Boston with 3-6″ and then the usual with Metrowest higher with 6-10″and then north central MA with 10-14.” I think … emphasis on THINK … he said the coastal front would set up between Bedford and Boston. He also has rain moving into Boston at 5am and “squishing” the snow down. I like Harvey, but it was a little difficult to understand not due to him, but because the situation itself is complicated and quite variable depending on where you live. Meanwhile it looks like Millis, MA will get the jackpot.

  299. From twitter.
    @capecodweather: Nantucket has flipped to rain…changeover line making steady progress north as expected.

  301. @BarryWBZ: Interesting…gustier easterly wind now brewing east of the coastal front, very cold with a light northerly breeze west of the coastal front

    1. Coastal I’m not sure if I’m right under that front but the wind has been shifting back and forth here for about 20 minutes now. When it goes east it gets a little gusty when goes north its much slower and steadier.

  303. I have a theory for the graupel. And the fact that I now know 3 people that have seen lightning originate in the band of precipitation that was causing the sleet/graupel debate makes me more confident of this.

    Gravity wave: Rapid compression of air, like upward displacement, propagating like a wave out from the low pressure area. We see these when there is some deepening going on and the pressure field is being forced to adjust quickly. That compression of upward-force air into a dense layer of cold air just above it will warm it just enough to partially melt the snowflakes in it, which then fall into the colder air just below and re-solidify. That is likely what Charlie and Aidan were seeing. Also the compression and upward moving air would produce low level convection, enough to produce a few strokes of lightning, a.k.a. thundersnow.

    1. It’s just funny that when I report anything but SNOW, ignore time, it’s ok thanks Tk 🙂 light snow/sleet is now falling, about 3 in a half inches

          1. I hated calculus. I failed calc 3 but that was mainly because of the professor. I retook it with “Mrs. Greenler” who was a semi-retired math teacher filling in at the college and I passed it with a B. Go figure.

  304. Tk you know I just report, I’m not a absolute snow lover, and that’s where the heads bump, I never make stuff up, so anyways I’m sure we will continue to bump heads,

  305. Gravity wave #2 entering SW RI as of 11:35PM. I am pretty certain this is one of those, as it is moving faster than the average speed of the precip. echoes on radar.

    1. Before your explanation, I was thinking of asking (out of ignorance) … .. as to whether rain aloft could re-solidify inside the cold air to a form of precip other than sleet … like snow again(?). I am sure the answer is no and probably sleet/graupel are the only answers.

  307. And Charlie my remarks about your stick is strictly as you stated…. You and I saw what we saw. This has been fun!! I am a snow lover!! All be safe! and TK thanks for the explanation

      1. hmmm Meteor Scatter dx on FM…I forgot about them. Of course in our RF rich area (too many FM stations including pirates) Meteor Scatter is tough.

  309. been snowing at a good clip. my brother ben and i have been decorating and put different color glitter on sand dollars to put on the tree and put on the mantel. nothing could possibly go wrong with this scenerio 😉

  310. Strange but I’ve been hearing clanging off the windows here in Sterling the past 15 mins and the temp is 15. Could it be graupel as well mixing in? Wonder if Retrac is experiencing this as well?

  312. It’s beautiful out there right now. Temp at 28 with a light (very light) NE wind. Moderate snow falling. Close to 5 inches here.

  314. Ok. It’s 11:44PM. The 2nd period ends and the Bruins are down 3-1. They need a strong 3rd to force OT in Vancouver.

    The graupel/thunder band is now coming over my area. I am going to go out and check to see if any of those pellets are mixing in.

    At about midnight, I will start a new blog and those of you that are up late may see it posted, the rest of you can check in the morning. 🙂

    I’ll still be around the blog for a couple more hours.

  315. Someone tweeted that Quincy was having heavy sleet but not in my part of Quincy. Do you think it could be graupel?

  319. There is a tad bit of sleet mixing in boston long wood medical area. Good dumping here and the wind is really whipping.

  321. Passing 5 inches. Bit of graupel mixed in right now. They are BIG graupels, but I am 100% certain it is not sleet. Classic graupel. It’s so big you can almost make a snowman with it. 😛

  322. Some Graupel here now…wind (what there is of it) seems to be shifting between N and E and back again.

  328. We did have it go back to snow, but we are back to sleet and snow, about half snow half sleet, just under 4 inches here in NA

  329. Snow is heavy again here in Hingham. Wind is NE now but still fairly light. Temp is 29.3 and the snow is still powdery altho compacting a little now.

  330. Its 55F in Atlantic City with a SE wind.

    Meanwhile, about 4-4.5 inches here. Temp 32F.

    That Atlantic City temp as well as a couple 40s on Long Island Island make me think I could wake up in a different weather world tomorrow morning.

    I wouldnt have to worry about this in Lowell. 🙂 🙂

    1. I was thinking the same thing. And this time there doesn’t look to be a “dreaded dry slot” to save us. Oh well still nice and still snowing.

  331. about 4 inches of snow here and still come down good, though huge dry slot formed and will greatly reduce snowfall. as the second batch will be what brings the warmer air?

    2. yep…radar indicates that right now…more heavy precip might move in soon to your area and will be interesting to see if pulls down cooler air again or if the warmer layer wins out.

  333. We now have rain in southern RI, and also the islands, and mixing on all the cape, Tk, how quick you think that gets here?

    1. That’s about when it was expected, which is why the rain will be limited and short-lived. Once it’s warm enough to be rain, there will be barely any precipitation left to fall as it.

  335. 18 degrees and 5.1 inches of snow thus far in westborough…snow is falling very lightly with that worrying dry slot just to the west

  336. I’m guessing we have 5inches in this part of boston as it just keeps coming down and very windy. As others have reported I have not heard any thunder snow yet. Does boston go to rain towards the end or does it just stop snowing. All forcasts I saw for boston today worked out except for Pete, god ol Pete.

  337. This storm has far exceeded my expectations within city limits. Under forecasted most definitely by SOME of our local mets.

  338. Hartford has gotta be way under there expected accumulations, they’ve been in either light snow or no snows for hours now

  339. Hartford has gotta be way under there expected accumulations, they’ve been in either light snow or no snows for hours now

  346. It appears the snow is done here, it’s straight sleet about to change to rain, not a bad little storm, for New England standards, goodnight, ended up with 4.3 inches, thanks Tk 🙂

    1. Yeah, I just checked outside 1 last time, and it’s a straight rain now w/ a few sleet pellets mixing in, temp is above freezing at 33.1 degrees finally goodnight 🙂

  351. Plain rain here now but precip close to shutting off. I woke up around 4 and it was still snowing but was starting to transition I tried to take a
    Measurement but it was starting to compact. I came with somewhere around 7 inches and 7.4 in another location.

  356. 06z nam and gfs seem to develop the tuesday storm quicker dropping some more snow. I also believe the Euro backs this up as well.

  358. Euro has .45 qpf and all snow, gfs has .54 and all snow. Increase slightly more from yesterday. If that holds I would day 3-6 inches.

  360. Thank you! This past storm wasn’t bad we did pretty well here in Quincy. It just doesn’t look the same after it rains pretty dreary here now..

  362. good morning gang.

    8″ here right on the button. I woke up at about 3:30 to sleet pinging off the house. We got 3″ only from 11:30 last night on. Turns out the bulk of the storm came well before midnight – different from my expectation.

  363. Storm winding down. Looks like a general 5-8″ snowfall in SNE with lesser amounts south and east and higher amounts north and west. Jackpot area might be areas 30-35 miles due north of Boston, in Essex county around 10″ and then out west in northern Berkshire County where around 10-12″ fell as well. In the areas in between that 5-8″ seems good.

    The 12z GFS yesterday had the QPF right, but not the temps. NAM was ok on temps but as usual nearly 50% too high the QPF. 12z ECMWF to me did the best overall job with this one, but 5 days ago it wanted to deliver 18″ of snow to SNE. So everything showed its flaws.

    I will tell you given the pattern, 5 days ago I would have bet a lot of something that this thing would have gone out to sea instead of over SE MA.

    Speaking of patterns, the northern shortwave for Tuesday is exactly the type of system I would expect to over-produce in this pattern, which probably means it will under-produce.

    Early thought is that it could deliver a general 2″ snowfall in the areas of SNE where most people live.

  364. Good morning. Woke up around 1:00 and read the comments. It was fun to watch. Changed to something around 2:00. I was afraid to say what in case I’d get taken to task ;). I can’t get the back door open more than a few inches so could only stick the tape measure in just outside. Got 5″ for one and 7″ another. It looks around that depth. Will get an accurate measurement once the shoveling is done.

  365. Lawrence dropped another 4 degrees and is now back down to 21. Temps are going to drop back down, may be a good time to shovel now then later 🙂

  366. Eastern parts of SNE COULD have the most snow from the Tuesday system especially if it real develops.
    Level 1 snow event I am thinking with a general 1-3 inches but totals COULD be higher in eastern parts of SNE should the system develop further.
    It looks nice out there with the snow. There is a bit of glaze on the snowpack as there was changeover here.

  367. 28 degrees with a light freezing drizzle, it changed to a drizzle about an hour ago, 9.4 inches,now starting to compact to about 8.6 inches of snowfall. on the board. will post more in a bit. for the yard

  369. Temps are dropping. Natick may have dropped 8 degrees in a matter of minutes. Lawrence went from 34 to 19 in the last hour.

  370. Suggest everyone shovel while they can. Stuff on the ground could start freezing very soon depending on where you live.

  372. * Christie (if you are reading): 4 of your replies ended up in the pending folder among over 6000 spam messages but somehow I finally spotted them and they are now approved. Sorry for the delay!!!

    * JMA: Once again, agree with you about the models showing the flaws and your initial analysis. That pattern usually tosses storms like that out to sea, but as we found out, atmospheric “rules” are not solid. At least personally I felt like I was able to adjust the forecast enough to get it as close as I could in the end. Never felt good forecasting too many double-digit snows, and obs show they were quite limited.

    *Models: Please stop over-forecasting QP! k-thanks-bye! 😉

    I know I mentioned a blog update overnight but never quite managed to finish it off. This virus has me nailed at the moment and now I have that upper chest tightness and cough as I am sure all of you have gone through before. On the bright side, I don’t feel it’s getting any worse. But I have to go move some snow outside for an hour or 2 later this morning. Hmm. That’ll be fun. I share a driveway with my next door neighbors as the houses used to be part of the same property of the original builder back in the 1800s. They have a really nice snow blower. Will I see them out there with it today? I’m not betting on it. 😉

  373. TK. Please just rest. You certainly have enough on your plate and can easily move woods hill off for a bit. Thanks for all you’ve done to keep us informed during the storm.

    1. It’s amazing. I thought I was reading wrong. I’m watching mac and SIL clear cars. There is at least a one inch shelf of crust on the top of the snow

  379. Looking at the models, an early guess for Tuesday is 1-3 inches, then it gets move away cold, then it gets mild through this week, and it could get close to 50 degrees Friday 🙂

  381. Big problem right now with icing. Everything is icing up big time. I tell ya that rain caused a lot of problems for us. I might be here till tomorrow. Use caution while out.

  382. Was out and about, all the roads seem to be clear, even back roads, the temps getting into the mid 30’s, GAMETIME 2hrs 50 min’s till kickoff 🙂 officially got 4.5 inches of snow, about expected, my friend says they only got about 2-3 inches on ground, they live in Norton

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