Slow Trend Toward Colder

185 Comments

7:13AM

The trend out of the thaw and back to the cold will be a slow one as it takes a while for the trough to carve its way back into the eastern US. It will happen in stages over the next several days but with the main push being just too far west initially to bring much cold air in. The result will be mild air still in place today as we’ll be between a departing storm system to the east and a weaker one in the Great Lakes. Though slightly cooler Thursday and Friday, it will still be averaging milder than normal. A storm system Thursday will get going too far offshore to have a major impact other than some cloudiness over eastern New England, and another storm will try to get going just offshore Friday night into Saturday, with slightly colder air to work with, but probably getting its act together too late to have any significant impact. By Sunday, a strong disturbance in the northern jet stream will drive a cold front through the region, setting off snow showers as it turns a little colder. More seasonable cold is expected to start next week, but as the week goes on, even colder air is expected to come out of  Canada into the northeastern US. There may be some threats of snow as the cold air becomes re-established.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sun dominates over clouds through midday, clouds start to increase later day. Highs around 50. Wind light SW.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds, moon shines through breaks. Lows in the 30s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds, some intervals of sun. Highs 40-45. Wind light N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind light N to  variable.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix South Coast, light mix/snow elsewhere. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 33.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 15. High 30.

185 thoughts on “Slow Trend Toward Colder”

  4. Thanks tk
    I’m thinking we r heading to the beach today
    50 degrees today again,
    How many 50 + degree days r normal in Jan?

  5. I’m noticing a trend to a delay in the cold. Not saying it wont eventually happen, but with each run, the real cold seems to be getting pushed back and the cold that was forecast for each time period flattens out and moderates some. Last week, the artic air was supposed to arrive end of this week into the weekend, now its end of next week. Again, not saying it wont eventually happen, but interesting it keeps getting delayed.

  6. Thanks tk. You basically said the same as Harvey did last night regarding the cold. He said were heading towards a pattern change of colder air but its coming ever so slowly and probably be here mid week of next week.

  7. Accuweather is starting a tv network. that should be interesting, especially when a big storm hits. I can not wait to see the hype

    1. I need to get DirectTV, lol. I checked with Comcast, they do not have that new weather network u mentioned last night. I checked it out online, looks pretty cool, kinda like how TWC used to be.

      Hopefully they have Henry on accuweather TV, now that would be something!

      1. Actually Comcast does have it. It’s the Cool TV Channel. Forget to specific number, but it’s in the 200’s. Also heard Accuweather is coming out with a new channel with 24×7 weather in the third quarter.

  8. Regarding the euro bomb for later next week. Not biting yet. The euro has done this to us all winter and it never comes to fruition. I would feel better if other models had it. GFS and CMC have something but OTS and nothing like the euro.

    1. I have been pretty dissapointed with the Euro this year and have actually felt the GFS has done a better job in the medium range of finding the trends. I was thinking about that a bit and wonder if the lack of blocking this year has something to do with it. The Euro seemed to handle to blocking pattern very well last year whereas the GFS did not. With the lack of blocking those roles seem to have switched. The Euro recently came around to the GFS on Saturday’s storm or non storm I should say whereas last year we could always count on the opposite. I hate this kind of weather in the winter and have been quite bored of the pattern of late

      1. Agree! I have been bored as well. The thing i hate the most in winter is rain and 40 degrees, just downright miserable (yesterday)

      2. Totally agree.

        This Winter blows.

        AND I don’t care that we “may” actually be ahead of
        schedule on snowfall.

        With all of this warm/rainy weather in between snows, it
        makes for a miserable Winter!

        Eric Fisher on his 11PM broadcast was taking about the extremes. He called it a High Amplitude Weather pattern. 😀

              1. Would be nice, wouldn’t it?

                What’s the over/under on the 12Z Euro? I guess that wouldn’t apply, but you get the idea.

                I say it is NOT there, OR if it is, it
                is an OTS job.

    1. Regarding Icy Spots,

      My care was coated in ICE from top to bottom, front to back.
      There was black ice on the roads all over.

      Was NOT mentioned on the weather broadcast last night at all.

      Shame, shame, shame. There should have been a warning!

    2. Direct TV and TWC are having a rather strong disagreement over something – I’m sure it involved money – and they did drop TWC

  10. Rainorama yesterday and fog this morning. Not very winter like. The weekend system minimal impact if any. The mid week storm threat next week won’t happen like what is being depicted on the EURO. Hopefully will get a blockbuster in February.

    1. Let’s just home some blocking shows up in Feb. Without that, it will be very difficult to get that classic look of a blockbuster nor’easter. I’m using the winter conditions and pattern so far that to date has not produced your classic storm. We have been very fortunate to get certain things to line up the way they did to get the snows we have gotten so far.

  11. Thanks TK. Can’t say that I am disappointed in the diminishing threat for a storm on Saturday. And I have to agree with OS…this winter kind of blows. But at least my kids won’t have to go to school until July. Always trying to look on the bright side. 🙂

  12. Winter officially started on December 21. So not even a month into it, it feels much longer. Winter is far from over and we enter into a much colder pattern next week and its staying put. I’m not discounting Saturday yet as something will be falling from the sky if not snow than mix but looking like a minor event. To the others not rooting for snow Saturday I am with you because Monday is a holiday and it seems like every mlk weekend I get called in.

    1. Was just gonna say that coastal. I know anything can happen between Dec 21st and March 21st and beyond, but around these parts, especially in southern NE, its meteorological winter that’s more important.

      1. Ace as you said anything can happen. February can produce some of the biggest storms of winter. Again the pattern is changing and it will stay cold for awhile. To me winter has not been boring we had an active December, cold shots since November and a big storm to begin January, and to boot it was an unusual storm being how cold it was. Now we had a mini January thaw which is typical and now we go cold again. I think we have plenty of winter left and snowstorms.

    2. I agree coastal, ill be out on properties before u know it, about 6 weeks is go time, this time of yr Flys by

  15. One of the mildest stretches in mid January that I can remember (1998 comes to mind as an analogous pattern, without any real stretches of cold that winter). I know that 50 degree days happen every January, but it’s uncommon to have a continuous stretch like we’re experiencing during what is typically (on average) the coldest period of the winter. I do recall it being mild in January 2012, but that winter was such an anomaly. January was just filled with lots of days in the low 40s back in January 2012. Now, after some biting cold last week we’ve been around 50 or above for 5 straight days. And remember where we were around the 5th of January, too. You guessed it, around 50.

    Also, we’ve had a lot of rain this winter. We may still be in a drought. But, we’ve had our share of rain storms since early December. Far more rain than snow. Makes for a less-than-desirable `winter.’ Not a terrible one, but far from ideal.

    The return of core, `Arctic’ cold is unlikely in the short term, and may be something we don’t see again in the Northeast until next year. Most of the core cold is too far away from us, and what we’ll get in successive waves are glancing `blows’ of cold. Enough for snow, yes, but not nearly as cold as last week.

    Sun is very bright and spring-like. With the southwest wind, it feels like a day in late March. Birds are singing. Not yet mating season, but owls do mate by the end of January. For those of you in the suburbs, listen for the screech owl hooting late at night. This should happen by the end of January.

    1. Joshua we spent the month at the beach in Jan 2012 and there were days into the 60s as well as 50s. There was even a snow storm and some bitterly cold days tossed into the mix. But you are right – it was an unusually warm month.

    2. I haven’t heard any screech owls, but I do hear a lot of regular Great Horned Owls and occasionally a barred owl. The Great Horned I hear all year long, but loudest on clear autumn and winter nights.

      1. I will have to listen to their calls online and then listen for them at night. We used to hear the pheasants drumming all of the time but with new houses, etc., had not heard them for a while. Last summer, however, we heard them regularly. I love the sound.

        1. I listened to them and have not heard them sadly. But I’ll hope that one or two might find their way here.

          1. I was watching tv the other night and heard a Great Horned that was so loud, I thought it was a sound effect on the show I was watching! I muted the tv, and listened – the owl was so loud, it must have been in one of the many trees in my back yard. When I went upstairs, I could hear the owl in the distance that my visitor was calling to. I love that!

            1. I would love listening also. I can listen to wildlife for hours. I even like the red fox that everyone thought was a fisher. A bit eerie but pretty cool nonetheless.

  16. Last night Eric Fisher indicated that yesterday was the 4th Consecutive
    day at Boston where the high temperature was 50 or better! AND he said that
    today “may” make it 5. That is to be determined.

    That is the definition of a THAW!!!!

    😀

    Here is an interesting article on the “January Thaw” from the Blue Hill Observatory.

    http://www.bluehill.org/climate/201001_January_Thaw.pdf

  17. My kids and the kids in the neighborhiod have ridden there bikes everyday the last 5 days, this morning they were like, no cold right? I said no cold or snow, u will be able to ride all u want today, I told him if it stayed nice, we could ride there backs on the paths this weekend 🙂

  20. Isn’t this thaw a week long? Everyone saying 3-4 day thaw, the thaw started last Friday, and will last till this Friday, that’s a 7 day thaw, I’ll take it 🙂
    I see a rather boring outlook for snow lovers over the next week. Good day all 🙂

  21. I can remember the January thaw being talked about back to when I was a child. I definitely believe it is real.

    Thank you TK for diminishing that threat Saturday. Thank you, Deb and Sue, for manning those hair dryers!!!

  22. 12Z GFS has a stronger signal for something middle – end of next week. Still offshore but definitely something to watch. The PV is crushing the system as the heart of the cold air is making its way in at the same time. IF the cold air is delayed once again as has been the trend, this could allow it to come closer as the euro suggested.

    1. AND….

      It has it hanging around off shore just a bit, but in our vicinity for 24+ hours.
      Another long duration event should it come closer???

      Something to watch. Thanks Ace.

    1. Yes, but very, very little snow. The Northern NE states should all have a healthy snow-pack by now. My sister in Vermont told me that this year is worse than 2012 in terms of snowfall. Indeed, the OBS (Mt. Washington) has also measured a well-below normal amount of snowfall.

      Thanks, AM, for the link.

      All in all, this is a strange winter nation-wide. Quirky. So much hype about PV and yet so little snow across the country.

      1. January thaw may be nothing unusual but the lack of snow the ski areas north of us have seen for quite a while is highly unusual. I understand there are exceptions but that is the reverse from the time that lack of snow was the exception.

  27. Thanks, TK.

    Well, I guess one of my predictions for 2014 went out the door – I said “no January thaw”. I guess I said that during that really cold spell. Oh, well. It is mild out but there is still a chill in the air – I think that is just dampness – we still have some small snowbanks that are melting. In any case, I am looking forward to a decent snowstorm or 2 in Feb. Just having really cold temps. doesn’t seem worth it without snow.

    1. I don’t mind cold temps without snow. I just like it to be seasonable. It’s a lot to ask for in SNE, but I like it consistently cold in winter (20s/30s), 50s/60s in spring, 80s in summer, and 60s/70s in fall.

  28. If we hit 50 today, that will make 7 days above 50, and according to my calendar it’s January 15th. Pretty incredible, given that we have had some intense cold as well this month. It does not look like we’ll hit 50 again this month, but one never knows.

    1. Vermont especially is very thin. NH and ME have benefited from some coastal storms, but VT, very thin

  32. I just got done reading an interesting article on bostonchannel. Com. It says the key to the rest of the winter is the tempature. I don’t know how long Harvey meant but he said this cold once it comes mid next week will be in no hurry to leave. February could be very interesting, heck January could go out with a bang just how it started. Still guessing on finishing way above for snow.

  35. That 12z Euro may look great but it actually is very possible to evolve a little slower and further east than that.

    1. What do u think of that strong Atlantic ridge out there? Could that possibly act as a block and prevent an eastward movement?

      1. That is the reason it’s all happening slowly now. But that ridge is about to give it up…

  37. Joe B tweet

    @BigJoeBastardi: Think once again, people will be shocked at what is coming, this time longer duration for entire nation.12-20 day onslaught

    1. Did I miss something?

      What’s coming?

      Just kidding….

      You MEAN the SECOND COMING of the POLAR VORTEX??? 😀 😀 😀

    2. He also said:

      Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 23m

      I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US

        1. He’s talking about the upcoming invasion of the
          Polar Vortex. He expects the impact of that (COLD) to be
          as bad as a major hurricane hitting the US coast.

  38. Hey Ace,

    Re: 12Z Euro for next week.

    IF, and I say IF, this storm happens, we “could” be looking at a similar
    situation to that storm early in January with the real cold and High ratio snow.

    Take a look at the 850MB chart. 😀 😀

    1. I did notice that OS. For as close as the low is coming to the coast, i was surprised at how low 850mb temps stayed. Hopefully theres more QP than that storm, and at high ratios, could be big

      1. Sure it “could” be Big, BUT as we have seen all Winter
        and also as TK suggests, there may be a trend for this
        to be more off shore, perhaps even a total miss.

  40. I wish I could believe the Euro for next week, but the trend this winter is for the Euro to follow the GFS which shows an OTS solution 🙁

  42. Nice 2 min segment on the 20yr anniversary of buying the team. He changed everything around here 🙂

  43. Brady was sent home today to rest as he is sick with an undisclosed illness. Also said he was playing last week battling a cold.

          1. If one has the full blown Flu he couldn’t possibly play. Impossible. Now to be sure, many illnesses are called the Flu by people when it is not the flu.
            Sure one could play through those, However,
            NO ONE can play with the full blown Flu. NO ONE.

              1. I stand by what I said. IF anyone could play, it’s not the Flu. 😀

                It may be a bad cold, a stomach bug or some such thing, but it’s not the flu.

                2. I remember one great playing a game where he drove in runs and coming back to our hours and literally collapsing for days. The greats are a cut above. It is what makes them great. My gut tells me Brady is a great.

              2. Of course Brady is great. No question about it. Not denying that for a second.

                Who was that great? Teddie Ballgame? Or Carl Yaz?

                Either way, No Doubt they played when ill. No doubt at all and probably so when most would not.

                I’m just saying IF Tom has the swine flu, which is what is out there (the current ‘swine flu’ strain hits young, healthy people especially hard. Seven deaths are confirmed, 28 more under investigation.) he ain’t playing.

                I had the swine flu in 1980 when it hit hard. I could barely make it to the bathroom to piss, let alone play a football game.

                Just my take.

                HOPEFULLY he does NOT have swine Flu.

                1. I didn’t know Yaz more than casually. I’m not worrying. Although the flu is bad now there are also many drugs that shorten the duration and severity that they didnt have. He has the best doctors available. We will see which is why I said maybe yes and maybe no. We simply do not know

                2. Oh and I assume he had a flu shot which will also lessen the severity….hopefully. IF its what he has. A lot of rumors out there.

      1. At least if Brady is off his game Sunday, we will know why. Of course knowing Brady, he will never give an illness as an excuse during the post game interview.

        1. I say, BRADY Practices with a so-called “stomach bug”.

          That’s team speak for: “HOLY S**T, WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO NOW?”

          Did you ever hear of the Joke where the punch line is
          “Your Grand Mother is on the roof”?

          Watch out.

  44. Based on the TV mets extended forecasts, it appears that next Wednesday is the next serious snow threat. Let’s see what happens.

  47. Wow!! My Brady post got a few hits. So does he have the flu? I did not hear that. I just heard what I wrote from the article I was reading.

  48. Vicki,
    re: flu shot

    OH do I SURE HOPE SO.

    WE NEED BRADY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Not to put a damper on things.

      A friend of ours (Who had received his pneumonia shot) came down with it
      and spent a week in the hospital.

      SO who knows.

      All I can say is I HOPE Brady feels better by Sunday and/or is ABLE TO PLAY.

  49. Hopefully no other teammates have or catch the flu. I noticed that Mallet was taking the snaps in practice.

  51. Sure, all we’re doing is speculating about Brady and applying our OTS/INSIDE RUNNER/LAKES CUTTER logic into it.

    Simply put: As Vicki says, we DON’T KNOW.

    1. Update] Players confirm that Brady missed practice

      #Patriots QB Ryan Mallett admitted he was Tom #Brady AND Peyton Manning in practice today. Meaning he took every rep; Brady didn’t practice.
      — Erik Scalavino (@E_Scal) January 15, 2014

      I asked Julian Edelman if he was confident Tom Brady will play Sunday: “I’m not a doctor or a trainer, so I can’t say.”
      — Bart Hubbuch (@HubbuchNYP) January 15, 2014

    2. I’ve heard everything’s ok, they will be leaving Friday afternoon at 3pm, I suspect he will be playing, reminds me of 01 a little bit 🙂

  52. If you got a flu shot this year it covers the swine flu as well. Mandatory where I work to get one or your fired.

    1. Yes, I heard that. Does NOT mean it will work.

      Let’s hope it does, If that is even what he has.

      I heard on the radio that it was, indeed, the flu and that his wife had it
      and was very very sick with it.

    1. I was listening to 98.5 sports hub and they seem to think a low scoring game etc 27-24 type thing. Not that what there saying will happen.

  55. OS I don’t mean to tick you off. I am not even disagreeing. Its possible he can’t rise above it. I just know that playing when you are really sick has and does happen. I doubt you are at your best but there is a mind set I learned to admire that is just different. And I know its done. I am not going to worry until we have to and in the end, the pats play as a team. Actually what surprises me more is IF he has the flu and since reports say he had the start of it last weekend that he was allowed to even show up to practice both for his health and to spread it.

    1. I think Michael Jordan played game 6 of the 1998 NBA Finals against the Utah Jazz with the flu and a very high temp. I seem to remember Scottie Pippen literally carrying him back to the bench during timeouts. I’m pretty sure he dropped close to his usual 30+ on them and hit the series winning shot.

      Brady will have to be unconscious not to play.

    2. Said last week he had a cold. Just say if he has the flu I would think they would not want him around at all. He would be risking getting the entire team and staff sick, they can’t take that risk. If he is still sick Sunday and indeed has the flu the coaches have a tough decision to make. I can tell you one thing no Brady and no win.

  56. I am thinking 38 34 34 31 game. No matter what happens to me the Patriots over achieved this year especially with all the injuries. I think the season comes to an end Sunday for the Patriots. The other game I am going with Seattle. They are so tough at home. I think that will be a close game as well.

  57. To think the games they pulled out which they could have easily lost. Saints, Broncos, Browns games come to mind. Here is a team that could have been easily playing the wild card round and got a bye.

    2. Absolutely amazing. Gave me goosebumps. Ted would have never gotten the credit that Jordan got and certainly deserved. Boston sportswriters hated Ted. But then these greats don’t play for credit.

      Thank you Tom. Everyone here has read the article you linked.

  59. 103F in Melbourne, 11am. High temp last couple of days has occurred there around 3:30 pm. If conservatively they warm at 1F per hour, that will be 107F.

    The saving grace, if there is one, the dewpoint is in the 40s.

  61. been working this past week at mass general , there are alot of people with the flu, sadly its not the worst thing going around right now.

  65. one of the few movies that i will buy a ticket too. the new muppets movie thats comming out in the spring 😀 ANIMal and the two older guys in the booth are my favorite charcters.

  66. If Brady has a stomach bug, thank goodness he had it today and not on Sunday because it is virtually impossible to play at that level with a stomach bug. Havlichek did play a playoff game with a stomach bug once, and scored 26 points, including a game winner. But, that’s very unusual. Havlichek was a very unusual athlete. If Brady’s ailment is a stomach bug he’ll definitely be better by Sunday. Stomach viruses have very short incubation periods, but also very short life-spans (24-48 hours). On the other hand, if he has the flu, he could be affected by the illness Sunday (mainly fatigue). I doubt he has the flu. He probably has the stubborn cold I had and so many people have had this winter. Annoying, long-duration head and chest-cold that doesn’t go away easily. My guess is that he has this. He should be fine on Sunday with a little day-quil.

  67. The bigger problem could be if this spreads like wild fire…. Brady was told to go home for 2 reasons 1. to get medical attention and 2 . So he doesn’t infect the rest of the team

  68. IDK. Seems like a lot of speculation. This is one smart ball club and the smarts run bottom to top. I’m going to trust that they know what they are doing and that no matter what the pats as a team are among the greats

  69. Regardless of the specific illness, it might be wise for Brady to travel separately from the rest of the team, just to be sure there is no further spread. The team is very lean on healthy bodies as it is, especially on defense.

    Btw, what is our punting situation for the big game??

  71. To Vicki,

    No way you’re ticking me off. After reading that post by Tom about Jordan, then
    I may have to reconsider everything I have said. Amazing story! Amazing!
    AND if Jordan can do it, Brady can as well.

    Let’s hope he feels better and it is just not a concern. 😀

    2. Good. I’m glad as I’ve been worried :). I was blessed to have been weaned on some of this. But as much as I was exposed ill never totally understand the mindset.

  73. Sorry guys but Brady is Not like Jordan. Brady is a great winner but he’s not a human specimen that Jordan was. With that said you would have to break Brady’s legs to not have him play. Enough of that talk.

    2. hadi you would not be saying that if rg3 was being compared which is a much worse qb and will never have the career that brady has. stop saying crap about the patriots because we can say alot about your redskins.

Comments are closed.