From Thaw To Re-Freeze

162 Comments

11:32PM

The January Thaw as it is known, is ongoing. “January Thaw” is nothing more than a term applied to a period of mild weather in January. It happens quite regularly and normally. But we will not be experiencing this thaw for that many more days, as we gradually make our way back to near and eventually below normal in the temperature department over the next 7 days. This will take place as a mean trough of low pressure gradually shifts eastward from the Midwest toward the East Coast. Weather systems traveling through this trough will start out as mild rain producers (Tuesday) then trend to mix or snow producers as we head toward the weekend. It is too early to tell if the mix/snow events will be significant, but indications point away from big storms at this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially mid morning on, steadiest southeastern MA. Highs around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Rain ends. Clouds break. Patchy fog. Lows around 40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers coast, showers of rain/snow inland. Low 32. High 40.

FRIDAY: Sun AM. Clouds PM. Mix/snow possible night. Low 26. High 38.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix coast, snow inland. Low 30. High 38.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers especially late day or night. Low 27. High 35.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.

162 thoughts on “From Thaw To Re-Freeze”

  3. We really need to watch Fridays system. With colder air on the way right around at that time. I think models start showing this.

  5. Sat is a very close call temp wise. Euro has a bunch of precip, very cold 850 temps but marginal surface temps.

  7. Euro snow map has a big time sharp gradient, inland gets 6+ and from Boston about 3-6 but nothing just south of the city.

    1. More than snow showers Vicki maybe, more snow inland and if it comes together, that’s if than boston a few solid inches.

      1. Agree … things seem to have advanced a notch or two towards a little more accumulation than I would have thought a day ago.

      2. I was figuring that was possible, John. It would be irresponsible of JR to say more at this point, however. Darn and darn again.

  9. The Euro clearly has at least a moderate event for Saturday, however, Euro shows
    a Near miss for Thursday.

    I Guess we’ll have to continue to watch. 😀

    1. Thursdays temps will still be two warm IMO. The second storm was always the watcher because its coming at the same time as it gets colder. Take a look at the projected temps, but still thinking those temps to warm.

  10. It will be cold enough oldsalty. Earlier I was thinking out first thing sat am but now it may/ could linger. Mlk weekend snow again.

  11. GFS vs. the Euro once again……which model will succumb to the other? Either way this weekend goes, it looks to get colder for a longer period of time with multiple snow opportunities.

  15. I’m really afraid to ask but is it too soon to even guess at whether whatever happens Saturday will affect travel in the afternoon/evening?

  16. TK, oversimplified questions.

    I have been reading about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and its effect on everything from droughts to tornado intensity and just about everything else. I know it “flips” between a warm (positive) and cool (negative) phase every 10-20 or 15-30 years, and this can change weather patterns in North America. Since I am not meteorologically inclined enough, what I cannot understand:

    1) Is the PDO currently in a state of changing its phases?
    2) Does the PDO have an effect on storm patterns and tracks in NE?

    Again, I know I am oversimplifying this since much of what I read was complicated, but just looking for a little better understanding when it comes to the PDO and our weather here.

    1. 1) In cool phase which was when changes started .. including less loss and some gain of Arctic sea ice and colder outbreaks becoming more frequent.

      2) Yes. Short answer: More La Nina and less El Nino.

  17. I guess i must be seeing the euro differently for saturday. I dont see a moderate storm. Sure northern MA into S NH get some moderate snows but not south. I see a very sharp cutoff. Wants to give boston a couple slushy inches toward the end but nothing south. The cold air isnt in here yet when this storm gets here unfortunately.

  18. 850 temps are cold but surface temps are warm in the euro. It had on average .40 to .70 qpf depending on location.

    1. AM I think we have mixed precip south of Boston Sat, doesn’t look to be q big deal at this point, continue to monitor

  26. Doesn’t it look like the GFS wants to set up a Norlun trough for sat or am I just being an amateur here?

  27. EURO has below freezing 850 and surface temps for Worcester so its not far off for many areas. Plenty of qpf as well

  28. I just witnessed a company applying a lime app, I will not name names, I stopped and asked him if he thought it was unprofessional, he said my manager sent us out, I told him to tell his manager it’s unprofessional, this happens all the time. I do not do this, applying in Jan is straight non professional and just to make money, and not really benefiting the customer, as the lime will leach right out

    1. U dont start the Lawncare year until early March, I’ve started in Feb once in 2010, but it was bc it was so warm with consistency

      1. How is it the customers fault AM? The company just comes out and applies your lime visit, they don’t call. And most customers r not home during the day.

        1. I guess i misunderstood how it works since ive never had a company care for my lawn. I would think before any contracts were written up the customer would get a schedule of events and applications and agree upon them, with the understanding weather can play a role and is bound to change slightly but not drastically. Also, a notification 24 hours before any application or mowing was done. Thats how i would approach it anyways and if the company didnt agree than id find one that did. I guess it doesnt work that way though and customers are free to be taken advantage of which is a shame.

              1. I’ve used two different lawn care companies–Scots and Noon. My issue with both companies is that they don’t stop calling and asking me to do this and that when I made it clear that finances are a concern and I only want 4 applications–nothing fancy. Yet both keep calling about lime, grub, aeration/overseeding, etc. Yeah–my lawn would probably benefit from that, but we don’t have the money to invest in that.

                1. Yes Dave, totally agree, if I were u I would tell them to please take you off the list for all additional services, other than the 4 visits 🙂

    1. A storm next Wednesday fits into my schedule so I have no objections. However, I don’t want any snow on Saturday!

      1. Sue there is a very, very good shot at that. But not this huge storm. best case snow showers/ worse case maybe a few inches of that slushy snow. Sue this is all still uncertain and can go either way so check with tk as we get closer. take care.

  31. Hey Sue I just wanted to chime in on what John said. When we are talking about the weather, there is NEVER a Very Very good shot at anything this far out. Time always tells the story.

    I feel Boston’s last and only shot of sizable snow for the rest of winter will be now until the end of January. I feel temps will moderate in Feb-Mar though it may be unsettled. I think Boston gets less than 6″ for the rest of the winter.

    1. Thanks Coastal. I am certainly not banking on any forecasts yet as I know there is plenty of time to change. 🙂

      1. Let’s see if you and I can wish it away. I have a horribly selfish reason – if the party is postponed, it might be rescheduled to Sunday afternoon. Even though I attended the first partial bday party for this grand, only a bad, bad, bad grandmother would opt for a playoff game………………I’m feeling all sorts of guilt here 🙂

          1. I’m with you–we simply can’t have snow on Saturday. If I have to go out there with my hairdryer to blow this thing away, I will. I just need someone to point me in the right direction.

  33. I posted something earlier and it didn’t seem to go. I guess I’m banned from
    WSW!!! 😀 😀 😀

    What’s up with the models?

    12Z Euro wants to give the all clear for both Thursday and Friday.

    1. Thursday was always nothing to really be concerned with as it was rain, however now the latest runs show not much rain now for Thursday.

    1. The sudbury is higher – but then that is comparing it to a mud flat. It’s still below where it should be. However, anything is an improvement.

      1. Drove by the Sudbury in 2 places today.
        Rt 9 Framingham and MA pike Framingham.

        Looked AOK and quite normal to me. 😀

        1. It is not normal for this time of year. It does look better as I said but then I see it every day and am very aware of what the height should be. Remember, I started mentioning it last year before it was determined that in fact it was well below where it should be.

            1. It looks far closer to normal around the saxonville area also. I live a stones throw from there. I just watch the smaller off-areas because they are a better barometer. If that makes sense. And I exaggerated. I don’t see it every day – but maybe every other 🙂

              1. Those smaller areas can be disturbed by construction far away, sometimes those will completely disappear do to recurving the small rivers upstream a few miles

      2. I’m saying that they r high bc of the recent snow melt, and rain events, some of these rivers ponds r very slow risers, and very slow to recede. They r not nearing flood stage, BUT they have risen over the past couple months, and r high, anymore rain in the near future will send some of these into flood stage.

        2. I have a very selfish reason to keep the rivers LOW.
          That is fishing. In the Spring, it is nearly impossible
          to catch fish when rivers are OVER the banks, let alone
          get to them.

          There are years where I can’t fish the rivers until Mid-May. Other years they are very accessible in April.

          1. Is it different in this area than it would be north of here? I used to love fishing in the Ellis and Saco when the rivers were running in the spring. But I have never fished these rivers.

            1. I think for trout and salmon it may be different than for other species. Don’t ask me why as I have no clue.

              I just know that I can’t even catch a sunfish when the river is very high in the Spring.

              In the Summer, should the rivers get really high, I can still catch fish. It seems to be a Spring situation. 😀

              1. I am sure you are right. We used to fish for the brook and rainbow trout in NH and then the landlock (sp?) salmon in Rangley but Rangley was lake fishing. I have so many fond memories of sunfish as a kid. And the little perch.

  35. I know tk said we were on the low end of a moderate drought, but we’ve gotten another 2-3 inches of rain since he said that, so I would have to believe that we r in the higher end of a light drought 🙂

  36. Strong signals for a series of Arctic cold fronts starting Sunday.

    The thaw is going to end up lasting just about as long as expected several days ago.

    It is too early to turn our backs on the threat of East Coast development at the end of this week. Though it may be true that models are “all over the place”, they are all showing some kind of troughing and in such a way that a storm can form and impact the Northeast one way or another. Continuing to keep an eye on it.

  38. Rivers can vary all over the place in the winter. Anything is “normal”.

    The higher ones are due to snowmelt moreso than recent rain.

    1. Exactly. We haven’t had that much rain here….not enough to make the difference I’m seeing. Its also why I watch the same, very specific areas. SIL does as well. His office building is on the Sudbury in Ashland. They’ve owned it decades and it has never been as low as this year.

      Also why I think I noticed it in the Sudbury last year before others did in the Charles. The Sudbury is smaller and may show it first same as smaller flow Areas do within the Sudbury. That’s a guess.

      1. I understand your concern, but with more precip over the next week, I think the drought monitor will disappear IMO

        1. It will barely scratch the surface of what is needed.

          It’s long term, multi-inch deficit in precipitation. Unless we have a month like June of last year, it’s not going anywhere.

          And precipitation over the next week will likely be below the climate average for the period.

          And the medium range pattern looks dry as well.

            1. Charlie. Climate change is the term. It does exist. I would be hard pressed to find anyone who argues that. IMHO and I’ve said it before – we have a huge factor that can’t be ignored. How much has our destruction affected what would be a normal cycle. Somehow it seems both sides of the Coin want it one way or the other. It just isn’t IMHO and I would love to hear an argument that it is

  39. California is headed for a major crisis, drought wise. Has it rained there this wet season ……. is it going to rain anytime soon ? Doesnt look like it. Crazy.

    1. My brother in law lives outside of San Francisco. He said its the worst in 40 yrs. and he has been there for some bad droughts when flushing toilet etc was very limited

    2. As I may have mentioned earlier, this could be due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is changing its pattern these days.

      1. It very likely does. It will get attributed to more dramatic sounding causes, but it’s largely the PDO and resultant effects.

          1. It’s really hard to say, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it went right into if not almost all the way through Summer 2014. If it quits earlier, it may actually come back several months to a year later, as these things can cluster.

  41. Harvey saying with the pattern change coming to more colder air it will not happen over night and will be here by middle of next week. He also said its not going anywhere in a hurry. Friday pm Saturday still ? But Harvey thinks that the storm will get stronger after here. So it will be rain, rain and wet snow or snow come this weekend.

        1. I know john. So far they have all been tricky. I was just kidding. The forecast covered everything but sun so it made me chuckle

  43. Has anyone noticed a fairly consistent area of weak low pressure hanging around in southern canada?

  44. Personally I see signs the cold air won’t be as strong as advertised, 2 days ago I saw some models showing 12 degrees for a high next week, not many if any r showing the cold air intrusion like previous, sure it gets cold, but not like the past cold, also the sat possibility does not impress me as for snow.

    1. The models went back and forth on the previous one as well.

      Don’t pay much attention to the actual forecast #’s. Watch the overall trends not just in forecast models but in actual current conditions.

        1. I think he’s being faceeesious as my SIL would say. Just a guess :). Now please make it go away. I don’t think three hair dryers will get rid of that

  47. Thanks for the link Old Salty. One could always hope that happens. Its looking for like a MISS than a HIT Right Now.

      1. Vicki I think you have a good shot of that happening. The Almanac predicted a storm for that time period and when the Almanac says a storm will happen the opposite happens.

  49. John I thought you were calling for a storm on Friday into Saturday. You have me confused on what you are thinking?

    2. Hadi I’ve been saying we have a watcher all week. It has s shot at happening or equally missing us as well.

  50. Being realistic about this…a.k.a. applied meteorology, there is not really anything more we can tell about the late week threat other than there is a threat of being impacted in some way but a low pressure area and it’s potential configuration. These details will start to come into focus in the next 48 hours. Pretty much the same with every system. 🙂

  52. Agree TK.

    Euro again not showing much for the weekend but does have a nice little system next week as Longshot has been hinting it.

  55. Had to make some adjustments to a so-so (as best) forecast.
    More sun today, also milder, like you’ll complain. 😉
    Slower transition back to cold, but it is coming, trust me.
    Saturday’s system a little less impact.

    WAY too early to say much about the evolving bomb on the Euro. But I was thinking of printing out and blowing up the surface panel from 12z next Wednesday and using it for a meteorological dart board. 🙂

    Blog updated! Have a great day! 🙂

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