The Week Ahead

133 Comments

6:30PM

The pattern has been volatile of late, and will continue. We’ve seen some wild temperature swings, some snow, some rain, some wind, and even some lightning and thunder. This coming week will feature a lesser version of volatility, still changing, with a trend toward colder weather and possible snow threats, something that we would expect for January.

It starts out with a mild and breezy but dry Monday as high pressure passes to the south and low pressure well north of the region moves away. A trough of low pressure from the west will bring some wet weather in for Tuesday, but mild air means rain versus snow. As we get into the middle of the week through the coming weekend, a series of smaller troughs will start to re-carve a larger scale trough of low pressure in the east, meaning that we’ll see a trend to colder and somewhat unsettled weather. Lingering mild air Wednesday would make any showers in the form of rain, though there may not be all that much around. By Thursday and into the weekend, it should be cold enough for snow in most areas, and there will indeed be two threats, depending on the development and movement of potential low pressure areas near the East Coast. Target times for these threats based on current timing would be Thursday and again Friday night into Saturday. By Sunday, it may be turning quite cold as one of a series of Arctic boundaries moves into the region.

The updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 44-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain showers late at night. Lows 35-40. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Highs 42-49. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Chance of snow showers PM. Low 22. High 33.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow at night. Low 22. High 30.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow AM. Chance of snow showers PM. Low 20. High 30.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 25.

133 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. GFS is starting to see the snow threats a little better later in the coming week. Euro has seen them for a while.

      1. Agree. I’m of the school that the two teams with best record play in SB. My SIL thinks im nuts. But when a teams year record is the best, it bothers me that the team might not play in SB

      2. I always thought the the Super Bowl would run through Denver. I was rooting for SD today but this next game should be a real classic one to watch. The pats seem to be flying high right now after two very good games.

  5. Thanks TK – I certainly understand that it is still several days out, but at this early stage about how much total snow between the two systems could fall?

    1. Very early thinking: The first one doesn’t impress me too much. The 2nd one could be the type that ends up being “several inches”.

  8. Am I correct that if today’s models have Denver’s weather correct, then it looks fair and mild next Sunday ….. perhaps 60F ish ??

  9. I wish CPC would just stop issuing 10 day outlooks on weekends. Worthless. As TK noted they are untweaked model output.

    Agree that first system offers nothing but…what we have is an eastern trough that is going to have numerous waves of energy spinning through it. Most of it looks moisture starved and dominated by the northern stream. One piece early in the weekend has some potential to dive south, eject off the mid-atlantic coast to make Saturday a snowy day, particularly east. How snowy? To early to say. Don’t feel confident to say several inches but maybe a few inches….

    December and first half of January played out pretty similar to what I thought, with the exception of one anomalous storm that got nearly unprecedented ratios to deliver a low QPF, high snowfall accumulation event. Generally though, dry and cold periods, with brief warm ups that were accompanied by significant rains, only to have cold air usher in afterwards again.

  11. so it was not just me there was actually a meteor going across.
    Also seahawk fans must be impressed with them selfs. they caused the entire stadium to rumble in their divisional playoff game.
    i feel bad for the chargers. to bad would of been the 3 time the afc was held in new england. oh well.

  14. Charlie I was moving some things around in the yard yesterday near my foundation and noticed some plants emerging from the soil. The were green and it appears to have emerged recently.

    1. in sunny areas? Very typical in sunny areas, I would be surprised if it was in shady sections right now

  15. Good morning!! I nice day to have 14 pallets of fertilizer plus 6 pallets of Lime being delivered today, still jan, but 6 weeks or March will be here before u know it, no I’m not rushing it, it seems to rush itself, good day all, nice day the next several days for Jan,

  16. Morning,

    Now we wait to see IF anything gets it’s act together.
    So far, not impressed with anything. Hopefully that changes. 😀

    On another front:

    Denver lost a defensive back yesterday. IF he can’t go Sunday, it
    certainly improves the Pat’s chances.

    It looks to be a battle of the train wrecks. Neither team has close to a full complement
    of players.

    It could go either way, but I’m going with Brady. 😀

  17. I can’t stand this BORING weather.

    Saturday’s Thunderstorm was GREAT!!! But now….blah blah blah.

    C’mon TK rustle us up something….

    2. Neither am I, but I could go another week before our next snow event, just saying, 42.2 degrees 🙂 feels like March today, as supposed to climatology speaking the coldest of the year.

  19. It’s only Monday. I feel the second storm hits and it will be Friday night into Saturday. The tempature would probably support all snow.

  21. As for football the networks both got what they wanted. Denver New England Seattle San Fransico.
    The snow threat’s this week don’t look that impressive to me at the moment.

  23. Which is one reason we have not gotten a blockbuster so far. The NAO since winter has not tanked. Its gotten slightly negative at times. With that said I am not disappointed with the amount of snow so far this winter. I hope we get a couple classic Noreaster’s before we close the books on winter.

    1. Agree JJ. I would like to see at least one classic nor’easter with a widespread double digit snowfall. The last storm was not IMO. Yes some areas got that, but it was the exception and not the rule. In my area I’ve gotten about 18″ so far. Not complaining by any means, but if accumulating snow ended at that, id be very disappointed.

  24. I got about the same amount of snow far this season where I am that you have. I hope that amount at the very least doubles before the winter is over. The biggest snow totals so far that I have gotten have been 6 inches with the storm on the 14th of December and on the 3rd of January.

  26. Preliminary #’s coming in from CBS. Pats game had a rating of 8.9, with 27.8 million viewers. While I thought this game would be the lowest rated game I didnt think it would be that low. Colts vs Chiefs last sat. did a 9.8 by comparison. Not sure about the other games this week.

  27. 12Z GFS brings some snow Thurs and again Friday night/saturday….much more encouraging from 06z runs

    1. Interesting. Snowmap doesnt show any accumulation in eastern MA but yet temps are cold enough aloft and at the surface, hmmmm

  28. The Patriots have had historic injuries, amazing just amazing!! BB tied with Shula for playoffs wins, amazing

  29. So seattle and denver will only sell tickets they have available to people living in local area — no denver tickets for anyone in New England.

    1. I hope they don’t sell out their stadiums and then the game is locally blacked out, now that would be something

      1. Do u know for a fact they have never done it? We all know how our local media covers up stories about the team to keep them happy 😀

      2. Because the Pats can still win with opposing fans in their building, I guess the Broncos feel they need the full homefield advantage to have a chance. 🙂

        2. Absolutely – I just clicked the “like” button for your comment, Tom…..well, I will when I can find it 🙂

      3. I’d be just as ticked at Gillette. To me it is just another example of bad sportsmanship. Everyone deserves a fair shot at getting tickets.

  34. John, this is just what today’s euro spit out, but rain tues afternoon-evening, close pass thurs night with some rain showers, and then saturday rain for all central and eastern MA, snow into central and northern NE.

    1. Does it happen exactly that way? Probably not, but thats what happens when temps are marginal at best, could go either way. Euro wants to really deepen that trough into the south.

    2. Interesting ace as tk had a good feeling on the weekend one. It’s still to early and I’m betting we see it change. I think tk can probably chime in later on it.

  35. LV has the pats as under dogs and Brady said that’s fine. The pats have a decent shot and maybe a road game is good. You know bb has watched and dissected that game lastnight. Tough game, close game and pats can’t make any mistakes.

  36. It’s still early in the game for the potential storm threats later in the week. I have a feeling that if they do materialize it will be snow and not rain based on the colder trend for the end of the week. We shall see

  37. If that trough digs as far south as some are thinking, we in eastern sections will actually end up on the warmer side of the front and colder air will never make it to the coast as the storm rides right up along the front.

  38. I believe the ECMWF model may be over-amplified and too warm at the end of the week.

    12z GFS is my model of choice this afternoon, other than I think its timing of things may be a little too fast.

    1. Everyday, a matter of fact, all the kids, even neighbors kids were riding there bikes, the kids rollerblades came out, even though it was a little sandy, everyone can’t wait for spring, it’s still winter though, I’d like 1 more snowstorm then I’m ready Go Patriots!! 🙂

      1. We used to have winter and summer roller blades for the kids so one pair stayed in good working order. It felt wonderful out there

  40. Absolutely love Eric Fisher’s FB posts and blog writings.

    Right away he’s on the ball posting how normal it is to reach or exceed 50 in January. And HE’S RIGHT. It’s not something unusual. It’s not “climate change”.

    Averages are made up of the “non-averages”. Sometimes people just can’t seem to keep this in their heads. 😛

    1. Nah!! It’s global warming which will be followed by next week’s Polar Vortex and toward the end of the month I think there will be a stormier pattern due to EXTREME Weather. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. Yup,
      It’s all in the variance.

      The “average” high temperature might be 36, however, we have to look
      at the standard deviation to measure the variance. I’m not sure what it
      is, but for the sake of argument, let’s say it’s 7 Degrees. Then about 67%
      percent of the time the high would be between 29 and 43. About 95% of the time, the high would be between 22 and 49, and then 99.7% of the time it
      would be between 15 and 50.

      You get the idea. Even with an average high of 36, PERFECTLY normal to
      have a high temperature of 50 or more Degrees. 😀

      1. What was I drinking.

        IF ave high is 36 and assume SD = 7 Degrees then:

        67% of time high is between 29 and 43
        95% of time between 22 and 50
        99.7% of time between 15 and 57

        I’ll bet that’s not too far off. 😀

    3. Not sure who wouldn’t think it wasn’t normal to see 50 in January. Going by an occasional temp would be silly. It might be considered out of the ordinary that the first 12 years (haven’t checked #13) of this century are the warmest on record. But then there is a lot more than temp…….again our slow but steady destruction of the only earth we have :).

      I agree. I like Eric. Said that a while ago. I really enjoy the way he lays out his forecasts. And the way he interacts with the posters. Maybe he can straighten the BZ blog out. I may start following it a bit. And I can’t remember where but he also alluded to the harm we have done to the planet not too long ago.

  42. I guess the way I look at it, of course it can be 50, it was today and obviously has been 50 in the middle of the winter before, but if we’re talking stats, let’s say the standard deviation is 7 degrees. A variation from 29 – 43 degrees contributes a high percentage to the average. Anything beyond that 7 degree deviation would be considered statistically significant. To me, 50 degrees in the heart of any winter is and will always be statistically significant. It can be 50 in July too.

    2. Also the consecutive days of 50, pretty soon it will snow cotton balls, and that will be normal 🙂 kidding lol

  43. So, reading up on our friends down under …..

    Perth, in its record keeping era, had their warmest ever overnight low (29.7C = 86F).

    Now, in Melbourne, Australia, home of the Australian Open tennis tournament, that has just started, its supposed to be 40-43C Tues – Sat. 40C = 104F, 43C = 109F. Thats the air temp, imagine the temps down on the courts.

    At 8am Melbourne time Tuesday morning, they are reporting 91F.

    2. As a former tennis player I can tell you the heat is brutal. I can’t imagine going 5 sets in that heat. People like to make fun of tennis players but very few athletes in the world have the physical shape and endurance tennis players have. I can gtd not 1 football player could go 5 sets in the heat of the Aussie open 🙂

  44. Looks like the 18Z GFS didn’t get the memo for this weekend. Perhaps
    it will make it’s way to the 0Z GFS. 😀

    1. Don’t worry, I’ll hack the 0Z and straighten it out. 🙂

      On a related note, I was reading that not long ago an NOAA low earth orbit satellite was hacked. A hacker was actually able to download satellite images to his TV using very unsophisticated equipment. No harm was done, but I have read that much of what NOAA — satellite-wise — does is actually not encrypted.

  46. just want to point out how people say the pats are unclassy look at what the dam bronco’s are doing making it almost impossible for patriot fans to get tickets. hope to see that stadium empty at the end of the game 😉

      1. The Pats are about as classy an organization as they come. Kraft wanted it that way and made sure it became so.

  47. Tk what I would really like to talk about is this system for Friday. It could produce rain / snow showers/ wet snow. But as I have been saying I think it will be to cold for rain and I’m thinking the phasing happens to give us an accumulating snow event Friday night/ Saturday at least the first half.

    1. I’m far from convinced it goes that way.

      I don’t like the models’ handling of the upper air pattern.

      I think the Euro is too amplified, and the GFS seems to be trying to figure something out and getting nowhere fast (though I did like the 12z run to a degree).

      I will go as far as to say the threat is there but I’m not confident anything will come together at this point. What looks more impressive is the cold shot that blasts in here at the end of the weekend. The pattern is still a dry one overall.

    1. I don’t think people were equating the fact they are classy with the success. The success has been due not only to Tom Brady, but a variety of excellent players brought in by a top notch team of recruiters, and excellently coached. Has it been perfect all the time? Hardly. But you cannot argue with the success this team has achieved. The credit extends from the ownership to the coaching to, and most importantly, the players.

      And nobody is hinting that no other organizations are classy. There are plenty of them out there.

  49. There is a story going around the newspapers by a group called Storm Surge out of Newburyport, making statements that only scientists should be making, and doing a very poor job making the statements, with NO facts to back up the statements.

    All it’s going to do is alarm people. I’m going to contact some local meteorologists about this, as well as local news agencies.

    “We’re getting hundred year storms every 5 years now.”

    Oh really? Because Plum Island is flooding due to natural erosion? I completely get the concern. But what do you think is going to happen when you build a neighborhood on a SAND BAR??? The ocean isn’t getting closer to us any more than we’re getting closer to the ocean! Wake up people!

    Storm Surge. Formed by a group of “concerned citizens”, making statements that are being published like scientific fact-based stories in local papers. And people are buying every word.

    They are all up in arms now because we went from the “Polar Vortex” to 60 degrees in a matter of days.

    Apparently none of these people remember January 1978, for example, when there were temperature swings as dramatic if not moreso than what we just went through, and several times over during a 4 week period.

    Oh and then there was this little storm event on February 6-7 1978 that resulted in unprecedented flooding in coastal areas and 4 to 5 feet of slush in coastal neighborhoods. Not much to say about that, eh? Oh wait that was BEFORE Global Warming was rapidly destroying the coastline.

    No, our BUILDING HABITS are enhancing the natural destruction of the coastline. We place a pile of sand there, call it a beach, and then get all up in arms when mother nature washes it away? Get real.

      1. There was a story in my local paper today, on the front page, that will do nothing but fill people’s heads with the wrong idea. The statements are spoken as if they are heavily researched, and all they are is opinion with no facts to back them up.

        How can somebody say we are getting hundred year storms every 5 years? Name them, and then tell me why they are “hundred year storms”.

    2. TK I agree the story is meant to alarm. However, having gone to the same strip of land for 64 years I will have to disagree that the ocean is not closer. The area is no more built up than it was 6 decades ago. There are sea walls that were over 6 feet that are now 2 if that. There are boulders that are covered by sand as it is pushed up by tides closer than they once were. There are aerial photos of beach a high tide that is no longer there…..a beach that no longer exists at high tide that was plentiful in my youth. Friends who don’t believe in any of the hoopla will also tell you this exists in the kennebunkport area.

      1. I have no doubt this is the case, as it is in plain view. But we know that the sea level has not risen 4 feet in that amount of time. That indicates erosion, the cause of which can be debated, though I would be willing to bet is largely natural and partly accelerated by our own activities, more directly than indirectly.

  53. Don’t get me wrong… I’m not making a statement about my take on climate change .. natural vs. “man made” .. My problem is what is being printed (in papers or online) or put on air that is easily taken by the general public as information by the best scientists we have available, when it could be your retired plumber next door neighbor.

    1. I agree that info has to be out out there responsibly. But I also think we need to be accountable. And for the most part……we are not

      1. Absolutely. I have always agreed that whether we are impacting it a little or a lot, we need to be responsible. Because the fact is, we ARE part of the environment.

        And regardless of our level of impact, it can’t hurt to be responsible and careful.

        1. Absolutely.

          I feel as if little nudges do not accomplish anything in our world. It seems to take extremes to get people to understand that something needs to be done. EPA, Dodd frank, the supposed war on Christmas are all extremes where eventually the pendulum swings back to where it belongs. My take on global warming and I detest that term is that it will take an extreme to get folks to understand and become or even start to become responsible.

          1. Btw with EPA, mac works in a field where I’d hate to tell you what was occurring before EPA. Anyone who doesn’t think it is a good thing …..well let me assure you it is

  54. Playing the devils advocate and I am not saying we are getting 100 yr storms. The Halloween storm, sandy and even last feb come to mind. 100 yr nope. Extreme on a more regular basis….possible….but that is just in our neighborhood. It seems extremes are being recorded worldwide……no?

    1. I don’t think we’ve seen an increase in extremes worldwide more than we would at any other cycle peak, or combination of peaks.

      What is different is our ability to observe these events. 50 years ago, what did we have? Satellite observations were in their infancy. Computers were in their infancy. We had a relatively small amount of ships for observations at sea. Now we can scan and view almost every part of the globe with a few mouse clicks.

      Also, if you do a little research, check the amount of our population, not just in the USA but worldwide, living along the coastline in vulnerable areas and vulnerable structures now compared to 1950 or 1960. If we put ourselves in harm’s way, then harm is going to come.

      1. Maybe 50/50. I’m not only taking about the coast however. We are running out of natural resources. Mac is famous for saying if we think oil is in short supply, wait until we get to water. I have always said some is cyclical as far as weather. Not so much in other areas.

        As far as areas such as isle of palms that was destroyed by Hugo and then rebuilt I 100% agree. That’s nuts. That’s not what I’m referring to. Old timers on Humarock who have owned homes there for generations have never had multiple destructive events yearly. Sure they occurred but the frequency ….according to them and to what I’ve seen each year…is far more regular.

        Although and again It isn’t just the Oceanside areas.

        1. Oops forgot to mention that the homes in Hum that were never raised are either raised or are being raised because now it is necessary.

            1. I am glad they pointed out that we don’t have enough data to draw solid conclusions either way.

              It’s important to note this.

              Thanks for all your input, Vicki. 🙂

              1. TK I am as well and I have always said that. As I also said, I totally agree the group you mentioned is completely irresponsible. The only part I see differently is that the ocean is closer. Why? We just do not know. Oddly, I’d never seen the linked article and was surprised it said exactly what I’ve seen over the years

                Thanks for the discussion TK and the opportunity to have it here. Sorry I fell asleep midway through :). Too late for me!

Comments are closed.