Thursday Forecast

36 Comments

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)…
5-day mild spell.*
Spotty drizzle and light rain showers this morning and midday from a combination of moisture from the south and a disturbance from the west. Low clouds to start out Friday but a brighter finish. Nice Saturday. *Sunday’s temperatures and cloud cover dependent on the position of a front that tries to push in from the north. Approaching cold front from the west will bring wet weather in during Monday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered light rain showers and patchy drizzle through midday. Highs 49-56. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind light S to SW.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with patchy fog in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 35-45. Highs 55-65.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-45. Highs in the 50s, possibly cooler to the north.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows in the 40s. Highs 55-65.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)…
Fair and cooler December 15. Fair and milder December 16. Mild with rain showers later December 17. Clearing and cooler December 18. Fair and milder December 19.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)…
A disturbance or two may bring some precipitation in a couple of episodes but overall mostly fair weather with temperatures near to above normal.

36 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Continuing on with 06Z GFS for “possible” snow for Christmas.

    Here is 12/19

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121006/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121006/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

    Would be nice.

    This is hour 216 and not like 348 or 384, so it is a tad better.

    CMC and EURO NOT, I repeat, NOT showing this feature.

    AS TK already pointed out, GFS ensembles do NOT show it either.
    Here is the MSLP for the same time period.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015121006/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_37.png

    1. BUT…..

      GFS has been spewing hints all over the place that something “may” just happen
      in the period 12/18-12/25 just in time for Christmas. So, we shall see.

      Going to check with Mr. FIM.

        1. Thanks, JP Dave for your insights. And thanks TK for your forecast.

          I believe cooler weather is coming in the next 7-10 days. Not particularly cold, but more seasonable. With that marginal cold there will be possibilities for snow. Can we count on it? No. But, I think there is a pattern adjustment ahead.

          1. I think we can, I think we can, I think we can.

            About 6 inches or so, just before Christmas would be really nice. It can all go away on 12/26 for all I care. Just want snow around for Christmas and leading up to Christmas. A 12/19 snowfall would be PERFECT.

            Now let’s see if it all goes POOF on the 12Z run. 😀

            1. I am thinking we will see something on December 20th since I am bringing my boys to their first Patriots game that day. Although personally I would love to see a Pats game in the snow. 🙂

  3. The sun sets 15 seconds later this afternoon than it did yesterday afternoon.
    I would suggest a sun block with an SPF of 30+ or greater.

    Thanks, TK, and have a wonderful day, everyone!

    1. Yes, a veritable deluge of rain out there. Seattle is accustomed to lots of light rain, but less used to constant heavy rains.

  5. Thanks tk:)

    Absolutely splendid out here, 58 degrees, Saturday may reach mid 60’s!!! Even Sunday!!! What a great December for mid Dec and thus far. Enjoy!!! As most say, “enjoy the present”. 🙂

  6. 😀 😀 😆 😆 😀 😀

    OF COURSE, 12Z GFS has ZIPPO in the way of snow all the way out
    through hour 360!!!

    1. IMO I believe if we receive any snow 1-2inches+ this will be after the new year. I believe it could flake before then, but anything before the new year will be insignificant. 🙂

  7. My winter forecast, so far is going well, we will see come January if my forecast happens 🙂

    Also I have a link to the move Racing Extinction. Its very good, and sends a very powerful message, I highly recommend it. I will post the link on here if I am given the ok by TK to do so. If not just message me on facebook and I will send you the link through there

  9. What caught my eye on this particular run of the 12z GFS is what it does with an inside runner, once the storm reaches far, far northeast Canada.

    Deepens it to a 940 mb monster on Christmas ……. Santa would have some fun with that kind of storm 🙂 🙂 🙂

  11. All I see in the Crystal ball are Lakes Cutters after Lakes Cutters after Lakes Cutters.
    Will we see 70 Degrees between now and New Years??????? Perhaps not, but
    I’ll bet we make a run at it on a few occasions.

      1. They’re not classic Lakes Cutters. Most of these are polar jet energy redeveloping with moisture that “leaks” northward, or Colorado lows that are just traveling through the Midwest and Lakes because of the jet stream. This was expected and a large part of the reason the Northeast is mild.

  14. Yesterday and other days previous I stated that we may see a temporary pattern readjustment sometime later this month (I first stated December 20 or later and then stated December 18-28 but the overall idea is the same). This event will occur in some form and will bring 2 shots at snow (NOT big snowstorms, but some snow). Look for chances in 2 windows: December 19-21 and December 23-25. Do not take this to mean automatic White Christmas, since 1) I’m not 100% certain this takes place and 2) the event(s) may be very light. This is just to provide you with the idea that having snow before Christmas 2015 is not off the table. It should never have been counted out so soon.

      1. Odds would favor whatever took place (if it did) would not have anything more than minor impact, if even that.

  15. If I may…not weather related. Well, perhaps there is a touch of weather included

    Son and grandson took me on a mystery trip Into the Beacon Hill Holiday Stroll tonight. It is a blast. It is a long time since I’ve just walked and enjoyed the city and its sounds. What a spectacular city we are blessed with. It was warm enough to leave the jacket behind. Tons of people, lights, sounds, wonder.

    Last night the girls and families took me on a mystery trip to Wellesleys festival of trees. Mac’s and my Anniveraary was yesterday. The kids clearly had plans to keep mom/nana smiling. Their dad is smiling down.

    1. That sounds great, Vicki. Glad your son and grandson did this for you. I was there, too. It’s always nice. A bit too balmy outside, but no rain which is good.

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