Friday Forecast

45 Comments

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)…
No major changes from yesterday’s outlook. Dense fog in much of the area to start the day today. Very mild air dominates, but may be cut back by a back-door cold front at least for part of the region Sunday. Still looking for a more widespread wet weather event later Monday from an approaching front.
TODAY: Cloudy with gradually dissipating fog in the morning. Partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 35-40 interior, 40-45 coast. Wind light SW to W.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-45. Highs 40s southern NH and northeastern MA, 50s elsewhere.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely especially late-day and night. Lows in the 40s. Highs 55-65.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)…
Fair and mild December 16 into 17 with possible rain showers later December 17. Drier and a little cooler December 18-19. Risk of rain/snow showers December 20.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)…
A disturbance or two may bring some precipitation in a couple of episodes but overall mostly fair weather with temperatures near to above normal.

45 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Very, very, very mild in SE Mass. I believe the temp and dewpoint down here are around 50F.

    I’m pretty sure that fog has thickened even more in the last half hour.

    TGIF !!!!!

  4. Thank you TK. Santa would need rudolph if christmas were today. I am hoping Christmas Eve night will be clear so we can see the near full moon

    1. If the weather remains this mild, Santa will be a very sweaty man once his packages are delivered. This said, Santa delivers gifts to children down under, and Australia and New Zealand are quite warm this time of year. So, he’s used to all kinds of weather on Christmas Eve. I know one thing, he’s instructed Mrs. Claus to pay attention to the only trusted forecast for SNE: WHW.

      1. hahaha – I had heard Mrs. C is lurking here also!

        Mac would tell the kids about swimming on Christmas when they lived in South Africa. They were not impressed.

  5. Extended forecasts are showing colder temps (upper 30’s for the high) around the 19th-20th of the month, with a possibility of some frozen precip after dark on 12/19. Any thoughts on this?

    1. It’s almost like the weather models, for the first 7 days of a given run, forecast based on the current atmospheric data being put into them.

      But beyond around day 8 or so, it’s like they follow climatology. So, because it’s December, which climatologically should be colder than it is, the models predict something colder.

      With that in mind and given the power of El Niño, I won’t trust these projections of long range cool downs until they start showing up in the 3 or 4 day range on the models.

  6. Good morning and thank you again TK.

    Still not too excited about snow prospects prior to Christmas. Still a ways off, so
    there is time, but I am NOT holding my breath, except for my daily temper tantrum. 😀

    I suppose there is a possibility or 2. It changes with every single model run.
    I’m guessing more no than yes.

    We shall see.

    Not too foggy in my area this morning, but very mild. About 47-48 heading out.

    Looking at the 7 day forecast from Eric, sure doesn’t look like December. 50s all over
    the place!!

    1. Keep the faith, JP Dave. This mild stretch was to be expected with a strong El Nino and very limited cold in our vicinity the few times we get a WNW wind. After another 5 days or so of mild to very mild we’re gradually returning to normal temperatures, which by the way, are low 40s for daytime highs (it is still late fall). My somewhat educated guess is we even go below normal around the 20th for a couple of days and trend around normal after that. It’s during that period that snow and mixed precipitation becomes a distinct possibility. There’s increasing certainty that during late December the ski areas north of us will get some snow even if we wind up only getting rain and a mixed bag.

      1. Sure, I understand all of that. I’m just being pessimistic, is all.

        I am not feeling it. In fact, I fear you may be too optimistic.

        Time will tell.

        Waiting on 12Z runs. 😀

    1. There has been little if any severe frost, really anywhere in New England except the far northern tier of Maine. I’ve seen mosquitoes flying around outdoors. Highly unusual in December. I’ve also seen plenty of autumn flowers still in partial bloom. It sure as heck does not feel like December or Christmas, which to me is disheartening.

      1. We have had killing frosts here. Not a bunch but most everything was killed a while ago. Uxbridge as well.

        I was amazed last night at the stroll though, Joshua, that many plants were still alive and well.

  11. Good morning!! Thanks tk 🙂

    Another beutimess day!! Temp is 55 degrees and mostly sunny. For the winter or snow haters, a positive note…. I see no significant real cold and or snow for the rest of the year. I’m actually rooting for a few flurries around Christmas, but like I said any significant snow, that comes in 3-5weeks IMO. It would not suprise me if even after briefly cooling down to end December, we warm back up for the beginning of Jan. Time will tell. Enjoy the beautiful day folks. Only 13 days till Christmas Eve!! 🙂

  12. At least I get another weekend to golf. Trying to look at the positive which there isn’t much of if you are a snow lover.

  13. TK, I just requested you to be a friend on FB. Couldn’t remember your last name but finally found it! 🙂

  14. TK’s chances of snow.
    GFS
    #1. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

    #2.
    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_47.png

    CMC chance

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015121112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

    EURO chance

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015121112/gem_mslpa_us_33.png

    Like I said, I was waiting on the 12Z runs. Something is up. Will it materialize?
    Who knows, but it’s looking a tad better at the moment.

  15. Vicki, there are indeed differences between the coast and inland locations. I’m sorry I didn’t make it clear about the severity of the frost. Boston has had frost, but I don’t think the temperature has gotten below 27F (depends of course on where in Boston). While that may kill some plants and insects, it’s not severe in my book. I guess I’m translating from the Dutch school of weather terminology, in which killing frost is not a term. The Dutch use different terms for frost – from ground frost to light, moderate, and severe frost. All are precisely defined. Here’s my translation:

    Light frost: temperature between 23F and 32F.

    Moderate frost: between 14F and 23F.

    Severe frost: 5F and 14F.

    Very severe frost: Anything colder than 5F

    I don’t think any locale in SNE has had severe frost according to this scale, and only a few up north have had severe frost.

  16. Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan take on the GFS.
    GFS wants to give us some snow next Friday. Without a cold/dry high to the north I think snow is unlikely, however.

    1. Wind direction & just cold enough aloft => sufficient dynamic cooling for SNOW.

      I disagree with the Good Ryan. 😀

      1. There are many ways to get snow. The high to the north is a key ingredient for a classic Northeaster. This would not be that situation.

  17. Dave I am not a big fan of his. Gil Simmons is my favorite meteorologist in CT. He doesn’t blow things out of proportion. I also think being a out there in the future its a little too early to make a statement like that.

  18. There will be a full moon on Christmas Day for the first time since 1977. From the looks of the landscape and the mild temps it hard to believe that we are now less than two weeks away.

  19. FYI,

    Edelman was practicing today, albeit a “light” practice for the boys today.
    But he was on the field running. Don’t ask me how? Some magic elixir I guess. 😀
    He’s still a few weeks from playing, I’m sure.

  20. Once again, run to run changes with GFS.
    18Z run (yes we know it is the 18Z run) all chances have gone POOF!
    So what the bleep else is new. They’ll will be back with the 0z Run, watch. 😀

      1. I think what your seeing is a gfs that is daised and confused, if your looking for a few flakes, you can never rule that out, but accumulating snow is very doubtful, especially with the ground so very warm, unusually warm for mid December.

  21. Eric fisher keeps impressing me. As I said on FB…he is not Pete but he is darn near as Likable. He was on air in blue and snowflakes ….bringing snow of his own.

  22. The unusual ground warmth this month is an accurate observation. But that means zilch if the pattern were to flip to cold. I recall late December, early January 2003/2004 being very warm. Ground was soft. Looked like spring. Well, literally within a day or two the ground felt like the tundra (permafrost) and the month turned very, very cold. My guess is the pattern doesn’t flip, but does gradual adjustment, and the ground will harden accordingly.

Comments are closed.