Saturday Forecast

85 Comments

7:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)…
A split weather weekend, today being a day with plenty of sunshine and very mild air, then Sunday being a cooler and cloudy day after a cold front slips down from the north northeast tonight and puts itself southwest of southern New England before coming to a stop. As low pressure then passes north of the region late Monday and early Tuesday, another weather change will take place. First, the front that went by us will struggle to return as a warm front during Monday, but will eventually do so by late day and evening, while at the same time the low’s trailing cold front will push eastward and eventually offshore by early Tuesday. This process will be accompanied by wet weather, but again rain instead of snow as it will be very mild. A gusty wind and a mix of sun and clouds will make it feel somewhat cooler Tuesday. Winds settle down and air will finally feel a little more seasonable by Wednesday, though it will still be milder than the long term average.
TODAY: Areas of fog early. Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Patchy fog late. Lows in the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Highs 45-50 southern NH and northeastern MA, 50s elsewhere.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle. Chance of light rain day. Numerous rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms at night. Temperatures in the 40s to near 50 during the day rising into 50s to around 60 at night.
TUESDAY: Windy with sun/clouds. Temperatures falling through 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 25-35. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)…
A progressive trough of low pressure will temporarily change things a little during this period. Mild with a few rain showers possible later on December 17. Isolated rain or snow showers and trending colder December 18. Isolated snow showers and seasonably chilly December 19-20. Fair and cool December 21.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)…
Milder December 22 into December 23 with another system producing rain showers at some point. Briefly colder later December 23 to early December 25 with a few rain/snow showers possible later December 23 or early December 24 otherwise dry. Fair and milder at the end of the period.

85 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Thank you TK.
    Sun is out where I am and going to be going golfing this afternoon after I get the Christmas tree with my mom for her house. Golf courses in my area going to stay open until at least December 20th. Unbelievable.

  3. Thank you tk 🙂

    Beautiful morning!!! It’s always much better when your not scurrying from the car to the retail shops when shopping. Makes for a much better experience. Enjoy the mid Dec day!! 🙂 🙂

  4. Thanks TK. I agree with your read on the pattern. Looks like about a 3-4 day cool-down around the 18th-21st. Not bitterly cold, just near average. And dry (although the lake effect machine will finally start to crank). And definitely not a pattern change, just a short term fluctuation. The prevailing very mild pattern returns for the last 10 days of the year. Those last 10 days of this month should average 5-8 degrees above normal.

    Doesn’t look like a big rainfall event from this next system, maybe 0.5-1″ for most of New England. Barely a dent in our deficit.

  6. Thanks TK !!

    It has largely been daytime high temps leading the way to large positive temperature anomalies.

    The last 2 days, anomalous nighttime lows have joined in, creating around +15F daily anomalies.

    This probably continues another 3 more days and by Dec 15th, all four southern New England locations (Logan, Worcester, Hartford and Providence) should be very close to +10F anomalies for the first half of December.

    1. Through the first 11 days of Dec 2015, Logan’s lowest temp this month has been 32F.

      By contrast, 1 year ago, in the same first 11 days, it was 18F. Even Dec 2014 was mild, at just under +4F for a monthly temp anomaly.

      Data from Taunton NWS climate section.

  7. Good Morning and thank you TK.

    Mild, mild and more mild.

    Wonder what the record December is? Do we have a chance? Appears so.

    1. I think we can now take December Snow chances and flush them down
      the toilet!! I officially GIVE UP!

      Wondering HOW long this patterns goes into January as well????

        2. Well, feel good about the fact it’s not actually Winter yet. Lots of time for me to be wrong. 😀

  9. Is it possible we get through the entire Winter with ZERO for
    snow accumulation. Is it possible?

    We are going to need a dramatic shift late in January for this to change.

    I am still look for changes in January. I hope so. We shall see.

  10. El Nino. El Nino. El Nino. As much as I have an admiration for snow and tracking winter storms, this surely is nice after what we endured last winter.

  11. I am pretty sure we’ve had thunderstorms in Dec. but kind of amazing if we actually get one next wk.

    For those who are out and about and enjoying this mild weather – I am glad. But personally, I find it weird. Even the sky looks different. I can’t explain how it does – it just does to me. Especially the mild weather lasting so long – whatever the reason. We went to the Fatima Shrine in Holliston last night – beautiful. It was a bit chilly but not a winter-type feeling. I still believe we will get snow – at some point. We have to. A snowless winter would Really be weird.

    2. We are hoping to go to Farima next weekend. It is usually damp with a bit of chill there even when warm out. I noticed the Sky also, rainshine. I was thinking it has a ice blue look even though it isn’t cold. But that really doesn’t describe it

  12. I think the area’s first measureable snow (Logan and the south shore of Mass) is going to be ocean effect.

    We’ve seen a few occasions the last month or two, where a bubble of high pressure has nosed in from SE Canada and cooled off New England. Another instance of this tomorrow.

    I think in a few weeks, when this happens again probably, one of these times, the shot of air will be quite cold and with a NE wind, there’ll be 1-3 inches of ocean effect snow along the coast.

  17. Was talking to Matt on FB. He is my go to guy when it comes to wildlife. Son in law thinks he saw a coy wolf in the woods behind our house yeaterday. To me that is really exciting. I think it is amazing how anjmals adapt despite our best attempts to eliminate the,

    And back to weather. I’m thinking a nap out in the sun might be in store for this afternoon

  18. WBZ Accuweather Winter Preview tonight at 7:30 (Ch. 4)…assuming college football doesn’t pre-empt it. It has happened in previous years unfortunately.

    It will be interesting as to how much snow the team thinks Logan will receive. I can’t imagine much more than 25-30 inches or so. El Nino not going anywhere anytime soon!

  21. Don’t throw in the towel, JP Dave. It’s the 12th of December. We’ll continue to be relatively mild this month, although not as mild as today. But, we will adjust downwards gradually. I believe there will be snow at some point this month in SNE, though not much accumulation. A cool down in January is on tap, however, not nearly as cold as last year. There will likely be several major storms mid- and late-winter.

    Psychologically we all have a tendency to extrapolate current circumstances into the future. So, when you’re in a pattern you don’t think it’ll ever end. Hey, even last January and February between the big storms, many weather forecasters predicted other storms that did not come to fruition. I recall Pete B and others predicting a blizzard or two in early and mid February that 3 days later fizzled or never developed at all. It’s like a batting slump/tear in baseball, or a losing/winning streak in any sport. It’s unimaginable that the streaks end, but they all do, and usually long before we expect them to. The weather many of us are enjoying today will be a distant memory, say, a month from now. And, I am not saying this because we’re in for lots of cold and snow because we are not. But, a much more wintry feel is coming to these parts.

    2. I seem to recall some here had written winter off by this time

      And Pete b…..bite your tongue young man ❄️❄️⛄️⛄️❄️❄️

  22. Don’t have a lot of time to look this afternoon, but a quick look finds that the warmest ever December day here in Taunton AND at Logan was 76 degrees on December 7, 1998.

    The latest first measurable snowfall in a meteorological winter at Logan was the Winter of 1999-2000…January 14, 2000 with 5.6″

    There are not many times when you read on this blog “I am going to buy a Christmas tree then going golfing” Pretty remarkable!

  23. In the category “how quickly they forget”:
    December 2011 in Boston. Temperature departure was +7F. Snowfall was 0.0 inches.
    10 years before that in 2001 the temperature departure was +5F including 2 days over 70F, but snow for the month was 5 inches.

    1. Just count the years I have said this is not the winter of my youth when ski areas were in full swing pre christmas. Remember, they barely made snow back in my dark ages. This is not new. Climate change, my friends.

      Jan 2012 had ocean temps 46 and several days near 60 with others warmer than normal and somewhere in the month a measly bit of snow

      1. Hmm

        I remember skiing on rocks at Killington 11/30 one year.
        Remember full snow operations at Killington another year
        on 12/8. Also remember skiing Veteran’s day at Mt. Snow one year with a CRAP LOAD of snow!!!

        It varies for sure.

        1. Man made? And consistent non man made thru the season. We went every weekend startimg the day after Christmas.

          1. I’m talking early 1950s-mid to late 1960s. We had one year only….perhaps 1966 or close…where there was no snow and it rained on Christmas break. We did have days where they closed the mountain because of excessive wind chills 🙂

    1. True, Phillip. And that is very unusual. On average they get their first snow in early November, and by now have a foot in accumulation.

  27. At legacy Place, and the manager taking care of us, of course she’s loving the mild weather along with many others as we talked about it, she said sales are up, and everyone is ready for spring. 🙂

    1. They’ll have a long wait for Spring, considering it’s still Autumn. But they can dream. 🙂

      1. You know tk, most r thinking winter, it’s December 12th, and on March 12th will be in Spring mode. 🙂 🙂

  28. Enjoyed my golf game for the second weekend of December. Can’t believe back to back weekends in December I went golfing. Maybe a little chilly next weekend but weekend after looks mild again to hit the links.

  29. ECMWF = shaky.
    GFS has been doing better in the medium range. It forecast the timing of the upcoming system much more accurately.

  30. Charlie, you are something. Love it. When you said you heard people saying “everybody’s ready for spring” I had to chuckle. First, it’s (late) autumn, as TK pointed out. Second, without any winter what would it mean: “everybody’s ready for spring.” I believe that people are only ready for spring after experiencing winter. But, maybe I’m wrong.

    Interesting aside: I watched the NECN forecast and it reminded me of forecasts during the 2011-2012 `winter’ season. Far-northern Maine will likely have another snowstorm Tuesday (over a foot in places), while we bask in mid-50s temps after some rain. Aroostook county did very well in 2011-2012, in terms of snow. Likewise Quebec City did well. We of course did not. I’m hoping we’re not in for a repeat of 2011-2012. I seriously doubt it, as it was a very unusual occurrence, equaled by last year’s unusual onslaught of snow and cold.

      1. I don’t knkw many who are looking past christmas let alone rushing March. Your friends will one day look back and wonder where time went ….so sad 🙁

  32. I also have an experiment for you guys and girls to do.
    take a receipt put the ink side so it touches your palm. Make a fist. hold it for 45 seconds.
    This next part will scare you.
    You will start to feel a burning sensation and your hands will sweat. That is not sweat though. It is a chemical that your skin is absorbing. It is poisonous, hince the reaction to your hand. This goes through the skin and into your blood stream. This chemical is also found in plastics, which is used to package your food and other materials. Plastic bottles as well. Plastics that are not properly disposed of can get into the food chain several ways. One way into the soil and the chemicals over time will be absorbed by plants and the plants are eaten by animals which humans hunt or cattle etc. Plastic in the ocean. Micro plastics as well. Plankton attaches. this is eaten by fish and other seafood. . Humans catch said seafood . we eat, there you go you now have plastic going through your body. Just something to think about.

    1. oh the chemical is also called BPA but there seems to also be a new one that is just as bad if not worse called BPS

      1. Mac had us checking for BPA years ago. I suspect he is smiling down at your experiment and saying….”it is about time”. Very nice Matt

Comments are closed.