Wednesday Forecast

40 Comments

8:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)…
An low level inversion (cold air trapped underneath a layer of warm air in the lower atmosphere) will keep a blanket of clouds across much of the region today though there will be areas of less cloudiness with some sunshine. The inversion will get wiped out by an increasing southerly wind tonight/Thursday but still lots of clouds will prevail as the wind carries up moisture from the south. A weak disturbance passing through early in the day Thursday may produce a few light rain showers. The wind turning a little more to the southwest Friday will allow for a sun/cloud mix and a warming trend that will last into the weekend, if not through it. The wildcard is that a bubble of high pressure in Canada may push a front southward on Sunday introducing cooler air and possibly some cloudiness.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Chance of a rain shower overnight. Lows around 40. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of a few rain showers early. Highs around 50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-45. Highs in the 50s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)…
A storm will track to the north of the region pulling up warm air and causing wet weather December 14. Fair and cooler December 15-16 but temperatures still above normal. Additional rain showers December 17 followed by drying weather December 18 as the milder than average regime goes on.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)…
One or two disturbances may produce some unsettled weather early to mid period though odds favor rain over snow. A colder and drier trend toward the end of the period but no major cold.

40 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. Indeed. Yesterday I mentioned the heavy rains in Western Washington. Numerous flood warnings. Similar scenario in the British Isles. Relentless assault of strong storms. Of course, difference is that as you move east in Washington you rise in elevation rapidly, hence rain to snow scenarios. No snow to speak of in the British Isles. Even Scotland has been more or less spared of snow. Temps won’t support it, yet.

  2. Thank you, TK.

    We’re definitely in a mild pattern overall. Yet, I maintain that cold bursts (albeit brief) and concomitant snow chances are on the table later this month.

    By the way, I think we’ll struggle to get out of the 40s on Sunday. If cloudiness prevails it’ll actually feel like a raw November day.

    1. You absolutely cannot eliminate a fleeting snow chance even in this pattern. You don’t need a persistent trough. You don’t need a negative NAO. You don’t need Arctic air in Canada. Nobody’s calling for a massive pre-Christmas blizzard. You just cannot rule out flakes that far in advance.

      I share your concern about Sunday (and the same that Tom brought up on the previous blog). There will be a front nearby. I played the fence forecast (50s) for now. If that front slips southward, areas to its north are in the 40s. If that front remains to the north, 60+ is likely in some if not many areas.

      1. Agreed. Correct me if I’m wrong to say this, but Sunday’s scenario reminds me of an early Spring situation in which most of New England could remain stuck in the 30s (north) and mostly 40s (south), while the mid-Atlantic states could close in on 65 or possibly even 70 degrees.

        1. You can get those types of set-ups in a mild late Fall / early Winter pattern. It’s not all that different at all.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I guess we should just enjoy the milder weather. At least it helps with the heating
    bill. I could complain bitterly, but alas, it wouldn’t do any good except get me
    agitated. So, I’ll sit back and enjoy and keep an eye to the future to see if/when
    the pattern breaks and/or, we get a brief change and a shot at snow.

    I really would like to see some snow just before Christmas. It adds such a nice
    touch to the Holiday season. Oh well, we can dream, can’t we.

  4. Thanks TK.
    Yes Dave I agree with you I would like to see some snow prior to Christmas. Hopefully were not dreaming of a White Christmas.
    The other day Henry Margusity was talking about the El Nino has peaked. Well Joe Bastardi seems to be on the Henry train with that idea. Will see what happens. Some tweets from Joe
    Magnitude 30 day of SOI RISE unheard of in any el nino , yet along strong one. Signals beginning of the end

    30 day SOI values, That strong a rise in an el nino unheard of in November. Likely indicator el nino has peaked

  5. 10 years ago today we had that storm with bombogensis with hurricane force wind gusts on the cape.

    1. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT…UPDATED FOR WIND INFO
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
      253 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2005

      STORM DATE: DEC 9, 2005

      …HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS CAUSED WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWER LINE
      DAMAGE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS LAST FRIDAY DECEMBER 9 2005…

      UPDATED INFO…

      THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM CAUSED A VERY UNUSUAL
      SUDDEN INCREASE IN WINDS…RIGHT AS THE WINDS SHIFTED TO THE
      NORTHWEST.

      THE FOLLOWING ARE SOME WIND REPORTS FROM THE STORM ON DECEMBER 9TH.
      PLEASE NOTE THAT VARIOUS TYPES OF WIND EQUIPMENT HAVE DIFFERENT WIND
      SAMPLING TIME AVERAGES. IN THE CASE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
      ASOS UNITS…IT IS A 5-SECOND AVERAGE.

      105 MPH…MEASURED BY PUBLIC…REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER…
      ON BLOCK ISLAND. ANEMOMETER ATOP ROOF…40 FT OFF THE
      GROUND…WITH UNOBSTRUCTED PATH FROM OCEAN. ADDITIONAL
      REPORTS FROM BLOCK ISLAND RANGED FROM 78 MPH TO 94 MPH.
      101 MPH…MEASURED BY PUBLIC IN WELLFLEET MA. REPORTED BY CAPE
      COD RADIO STATION.
      100 MPH…MEASURED BY PUBLIC IN ORLEANS MA IN THE TOWN COVE SECTION.
      96 MPH…MEASURED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR IN EASTHAM BEFORE
      THE ANEMOMETER WAS KNOCKED DOWN BY A FALLING TREE.
      94 MPH…MEASURED ATOP A BLUFF OVERLOOKING NANTUCKET HARBOR.
      93 MPH…MEASURED AT CAPE WIND TOWER AT ELEVATION OF 20 METERS
      NEAR NANUCKET.
      89 MPH…MEASURED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR IN BREWSTER MA.
      82 MPH…MEASURED BY PUBLIC IN KATAMA ON MARTHAS VINEYARD MA.
      82 MPH…AT 44029 BUOY OFF OF CAPE ANN MA
      81 MPH…MEASURED BY NWS EMPLOYEE IN TAUNTON MA
      76 MPH…MEASURED BY BLUE HILL SCIENCE CENTER EMPLOYEE IN
      YARMOUTHPORT MA BEFORE THE POWER WENT OUT.
      75 MPH…MEASURED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR IN CHATHAM MA.
      73 MPH…MEASURED BY NWS SPOTTER IN MANOMET SECTION OF PLYMOUTH MA.
      64 MPH…NWS ASOS OBSERVATION AT NANTUCKET MA (ACK).
      64 MPH…NWS ASOS OBSERVATION AT CHATHAM MA (CQX) BEFORE THE POWER
      WAS LOST.

      IN ADDITION…THE CHATHAM POLICE DEPT. REPORTED HAVING SIGHTED
      WATERSPOUTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

      ORIGINAL STATEMENT…

      AN 8 HOUR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND NOREASTER BECAME A SEVERE SHORT TERM
      WINTER STORM FOR RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FRIDAY
      AFTERNOON DECEMBER 9TH 2005.

      THE EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVED
      THROUGH BUZZARDS AND CAPE COD BAYS BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM…THEN OUT
      TO SEA…CREATED A SHORT TERM NEAR BLIZZARD SCENE DURING MID
      AFTERNOON UNLIKE NO OTHER IN RECENT MEMORY WITH DAMAGING WIND…
      WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND ABOUT AN HOUR OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MANY
      WITHIN AND JUST EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

      THE STORM BROUGHT A GENERAL 7 TO 17 INCH SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF
      SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT MUCH LESS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL
      PLAIN.

      2. Thank you. It was an awesome storm. I remember about 6 inches in about 30 minutes at one point, thunder snow and the inability to see the house directly across the street.

    2. We had one 37 years ago today also, JJ. Although if I google snow storm Dec 9 1978 all I get is the blizzard of 1978.

  8. TK – Even though daytime temps have been well above normal since October, have our overnight temps actually been a bit below?

    1. No. They have been near to above the majority of the time in most locations. There have been spotty below normal lows when we had great radiational cooling nights.

      1. Works for the oil bill. I have heat trip on for 15 minutes two times during the night just to make sure it travels through the pipes. I would say for the majority of days, it doesn’t come on.

  9. Looking at Unisys weather and the current obs for northern Canada ……… in far, far, far northern Canada, a bit west of Alert, the current temperature is -47F !!!!!!!

      1. Tom, you were onto something. You may be proven right. I was thinking along similar lines, although I don’t have your analytical skills in meteorology. I think a raw November-like day is in store for many of us this Sunday.

        -47F in Alert. Now that’s frigid. I hope the reindeer have their woolen sweaters on, the toy factory workers their long-johns, and and Santa and Mrs. Claus their grog to keep them going.

  12. Not sold yet on the cooler Sunday…
    Distinctive possibility though.

    NWS believes the GFS is the leader and ECMWF the follower on this set-up, and to support their theory, last time we had this set up (about a week ago), the GFS was correct on timing and the ECMWF was not.

    1. Yes, we’ll have to wait and see. Could be beach weather, could be raw. Don’t think it’ll be in between. I think a sharp cut-off will set up in which it could be 62F at Charlie’s house and 47F at TK’s.

  13. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan on Sunday temps
    The European model now has a backdoor front spoiling the fun on Sunday. GFS is still mid 60s. Tough forecast

  15. By seconds, the earliest sunset of the year in 24 minutes (4:13) tonight. Starting tomorrow, December 10, we start getting our sun back, again by seconds!

  16. Tom, you mentioned the cold west of Alert. It appears the bubble of real cold is indeed west and southwest of Alert. Resolute is currently reporting a wind chill of -46C (-51F) . I can’t imagine that, although the summit of Mt. Washington was that cold this past February.

    1. 3-8 inches of snow Boston to Providence corridor northwestward, up to 10 inches in the Worcester Hills on that run. Next run will paint a different picture.

  18. 2 last weeks of deep root ornamental feedings left, then done for year. Looking like it’s near 60 degrees next 3-4 days. Still don’t see any snow for the foreseeable future, and even looks like rain for just before Christmas, possibly on Christmas. Maybe for the new year? I wouldn’t bet on it though. 🙂

    1. Temporary pattern readjustment may come to be around December 18-28. We may go to the colder for several days including some frozen stuff for parts of the region.

      Long term pattern is the same though.

    1. Interesting that it would do that since it’s only 2 operational runs, but no other models and not even the GFS ensembles giving that forecast any support. 😉

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