Monday Forecast

82 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 14-18)…
Very mild pattern this period with 2 frontal systems producing some unsettled weather – one today/tonight, the other later Thursday to early Friday.
TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle/fog. Slight chance of light rain. Highs 48-55. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle early. Showers likely mid evening to pre-dawn including a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures rising through the 50s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Early morning rain showers most likely eastern coastal areas. Isolated passing rain shower possible through midday favoring northern MA and southern NH. Highs 55-62 through midday then cooling slowly. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain. Lows 25-35. Highs 45-55.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with AM rain showers. Partly sunny PM. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 19-23)…
Fair and seasonably chilly December 19-21. Mild with a risk of rain showers later December 22 into December 23.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 24-28)…
Dry and very mild December 24-26. Mild with a risk of wet weather December 27-28.

82 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. TK, thank you!

    News reported Tornado in NE TX that was never warned? IS that easier to have happen than I think? Scary stuff.

    1. Scary stuff. The Spc is good, but not perfect. You know the old saying,
      SH** happens. Hope no one was injured.

      Good morning and thank you TK.

      Nice to hear from John and Hadi. I feel better now.

      Rrgarding Vickis comment about special teams:

      %#%{%]%\<{%}?\?##.

      Translation. Get rid of that ********* Martin. You CANNOT have a player
      muff a punt like that!!!! It was right in his chest. ZERO excuse for that! NONE! He was NOT about to get hit. Nothing. What a freakin MORON to drop that punt. I would NOT be surprised to see that TURKEY released!!!!!!!!

      1. Look, if he got his brains beaten in by a vicious hit, then
        it would be understandable, but this…..NOPE!
        BYE BYE Martin.

  3. Thanks tk 🙂

    11-2 and back in the #1 seed!!!! Just continue to get healthy, and the Patriots should represent the AFC in the Super Bowl for a record 9th time since the NFL merger 55 yrs ago. 🙂

    Teams playing for just pride:
    Cowboys
    Browns
    Chargers
    Ravens
    Titans
    49ers
    Lions

  4. Holy CRAP Batman!!!!!!
    The latest GFS has no less than SEVEN (7) Lakes Cutters, 8 if you count sort
    of a 1-2 punch on one. I have never seen such a thing.

    We’ll be headed to the beach for New Years Day. This is NUTS!

    1. I heard CNN weather guy this morning say ice sculptures will not be this new year, he said 50 degrees is a decent probability. 🙂

  6. Bruins play the Canadiens OUTDOORS at Gillette Stadium on New Year’s Day. The way things are going, the surface will be slush and fog! I know it’s an artificial surface, but it might be unplayable with our continued warm stretch!

    1. Good point. It will also be subjected to sunshine as I believe it is
      an afternoon game. Could be a disaster.

  7. I went back to December last year. Is good for a Chuckle. Barry was thought to stick his neck out because he said we could still get 50-60 inches. One person who shall remain nameless said talk of spring begins Feb 1 like clockwork. Another womdered legitimately if we could have three high snow seasons in a row. It was pointed out lilies were blooming and response was same as TKs yesterday.

    All through it TK tried patiently to calmly assure all that it was just December and barely two weeks into winter.

    1. It was much colder than what we’ve had this year though, this year so far has been very nice. Plus we have el ninio this year which is having a big factor. This year will be different than last year. Mark my words 🙂

      1. Yes different, BUT, there will STILL be backend SNOWS and you
        “may” be surprised to see how much. 😆 😆 😆

        Of course all could be shot to bleep and it stays mild the whole
        freakin Winter. I don’t think so, don’t hope so, but one never
        knows.

        Dr. Cohen still expects it do change next Month. His new blog
        will be out tonight.

      2. We marked your words last year. I’m not doubting your comment….just that if you keep saying the same thing, it will eventually be correct. 🙂

        1. It was cold last year at this time, which to me is winter, and yes I’m hoping this year I’m correct, I’m feeling good at the moment. If we can just get to Feb it will really feel like a short winter. 🙂

          1. It was warm enough this time last year that the lilies were blooming. Not as warm as this year for sure, but warm nonetheless.

            Psstttt – you also said last year if we can just get to February….well, you know the rest.

            No disrespect, Charlie. Just teasing you 🙂

  8. Thank you TK. I was very busy this weekend and finally caught up on reading the blog. So happy to see Hadi and John’s comments yesterday.

    Took my boys to Edaville Railroad last night and we had a blast. My childhood memories of Edaville consist of being bundled up in layers of clothing and then thawing out in the car on the ride home. It sure was a different experience last night. I just kept thinking how much nicer everything would have looked if we had a little bit of snow on the ground. 🙂

    1. Glad you had a nice time. My family shares those memories and they are indeed special. Even my snow not lover child (I cannot bring myself to say hater) said some snow and a winter feel would be very nice.

  10. Patriots played a solid game. However, the refs (NFL) continue to want to take games away from the Patriots. Shameful. Even when they do reviews they sometimes get it wrong. How is that possible?

    Can’t stand this weather. It’s drab and dreary. Boring. Nothingness. If I could transport myself to Caribou, Maine I would. Right now. I apologize, but I’m pretty miserable, especially when I’m sweating in December on my half hour commute to work on foot. I want to breathe crisp air. I want the insects to either die or be in a dormant state. It’s “beginning to NOT look at all like Christmas.”

    1. They did play a pretty solid game if you dismiss Martin’s blunder.
      Logan Ryan got bamboozeled one time.

      re: Refs

      We got hosed on some of the challenges.
      Amendola, I “might” give to them. It was extremely close

      We got the shaft on James White being out of bounds.
      NO WAY!!!! I think freakin Goodel was overseeing that one.

      On the fumble/incomplete pass of Hoyer? I think we may have been hosed
      again. To me, it looked as IF he was trying to pull in that pass and lost
      control ie a fumble and not an incomplete pass. ALL Pats player KNEW
      it was a fumble and not and NOT an imcomplete pass.

      Oh well, BUT it was a WIN!!! none-the-less.

  11. Sue, Edaville is great. Glad you had a nice time. Home to the railroad, and also cranberry bogs as I recall. I remember going there as a child, and looking forward to hot chocolate. Right now I can’t imagine hot chocolate. In fact, ice tea is more appropriate given the temperature outside. But kids don’t drink ice tea.

    I propose we drop billions of tons of ice cubes into the Pacific to get rid of this El Nino once and for all.

  12. To me its looks right now snow is not going to fall for December.
    Hopefully in January will start seeing some. So far I have only seen flakes of snow and that was back on the 18th of October.

    1. Yes, even I am throwing in the towel for this month. I must say it’s not so much snow I am looking for, just some normal temperatures. Seasonable is my theme.

      1. No, Not you too!
        Throw in alright, throw it way in!!!!
        Gone! See Ya!

        At the point, let’s break ALL TIME RECORDS!!!

        How about a completely SNOWLESS WINTER?

        Now, that would be something!

        Let’s do it!!!!

        Wait a minute, my guess was 70 inches for this Winter.
        How are we going to get to that? I was figuring “about”
        4 inches for December. 😆 😈 😆

        Well, that happened, didn’t it*()!@#&(!@#()!)@#!(*)@(*#

        Now, I am wondering if the change happens soon enough, IF
        at all.

        Curiously awaiting Dr. Cohen’s blog later today.

        He has maintained that colder weather IS coming, yet he continually hedges that with the EL NINO happy horse shit. 👿

        1. A wise person (wink wink) on last year’s december blog did say that the average snow for December is 9 inches so zero is well within average range. And look how much we got last year with none in December. I do know this is a very different year and I do believe the chances of last years repeat are slim. However, being person of the year, Mother Nature might want to live up to that with some hocus pocus.

  13. Now thats more like the patriots.
    Patriots defense has been winning games for the patriots, been keeping the games that the patriots have lost close as well. remember most of the points with the eagles were not because of the defense.
    Defense was solid last night ( I think the front 7 had it with the talk of the texans defense.)
    Last week we saw glimpses of the players that would have an increasing role.
    last night we saw the high quality defense work as they did not give up a single touchdown for the 3rd or 4th time this season.
    This patriots defense is the real deal.
    Patriots offense will be getting healthier as we go.

  14. Just a wee hint that there “might” be something a bit different coming down
    around the end of the month. Previously, this was a LAKES CUTTER, now it
    is a coastal inside runner. MUCH closer to something than a cutter. Will it
    evolve more towards a true coastal? Only time will tell.

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

    btw, even if this were to be a coastal, I still don’t like the upper air after the storm.
    this would only be a temporary cooling.

  15. If your a snow lover your looking for any sign of hope. It looked for a little bit about a week ago around Christmas there would be some snow now that looks to be off the table.

  16. Niagara Falls is 70F, Buffalo is 69F. They are probably closer to needing a heat advisory than a lake effect snow warning.

    Double high whammy possible tonight, when the high temp is around midnight, so that 2 days end up with that high temp.

  17. A snow-less and/or cold-free winter and I would seriously consider moving. Up north. Way up north. Toss belongings into my jalopy and go full throttle up I-95 for about 7 hours. I know jobs are hard to come by up in Presque Isle. And refined culture, too. There’s no Boston Symphony Orchestra, Charles Street, Museum of Fine Arts, or Chinatown. Well actually, I’m sure there’s a Chinese restaurant – there is in every city it seems. But, snow and cold are guaranteed, even when El Niño rears its ugly head . By the way, I think El Niño is especially hot and bothered this year, in response to Trump’s rhetoric on Hispanics; él está furioso y indignado contra la retórica del Trumpismo.

  18. I am disappointed so far but lets see where we are end of January and early February.
    4 out of 5 winters so far this decade have been great for snow lovers. Lets assume this is a dud like 2011-12 to have only two in a decade so far that are bad for snow lovers is not bad. After the 95-96 winter there were quite a few winters in a row that were disappointing for snow lovers until 02-03 winter. Hopefully we won’t go multiple winters in a row like that stretch in the late 90s early 2000s.
    I think if this winter turns out to be a dud winter comes back next year. I don’t see a repeat of that stretch we went through in late 90s early 2000s.

  20. WBZ weather at noon said it was 70 degrees in Buffalo, NY. Wow. Usually at this time of year there is some snow on the ground up there.

  22. I am in Houston preparing to return to Boston tonight. Perfect day today.
    High in upper 60’s and not a cloud in the sky. Went to the Patriot’s game last night. Have a friend who lives here and has seasons tickets. Person sitting to my right and another sitting in front of me wearing Brady shirts. Lots of Pats fans.
    Interesting noise level in a closed stadium. Half way through the 3rd period, in spite of the scoreboard flashing for loud noise, Texan fans were making more noise climbing the stairs to leave early, than rooting for their team. Interesting dynamic.
    Sad to walk by the Astro Dome and see it in such poor condition. And they have no idea what to do with it.

  23. Don’t know if this is reliable and would like to hear feed back
    Tweet comes from EPAWx Authority
    ECMWF was correct and led all models predicting phase 4/5 MJO warmth. Now says phase 7 (cold/snow) post Christmas.

  24. I absolutely agree with TK that the WBZ projected snowfall map is way too high. IMHO all amounts should be cut down by at least 10 inches (Boston area should be in a 20-35 inch range). I also believe that the pattern is not going to suddenly flip to cold & snow in late January like last year which Danielle pointed out IIRC. My bet is that it will take more like the first week of February (maybe even 10 days in) for any serious cold/snow. My feeling is that there will still be mild periods in between the cold/snow during February into March. El Nino is extremely strong and it only will break down very gradually week by week in the coming months.

    I would say throw in the towel for most if not all of January as well and just enjoy whatever snow we do get the second half of winter 2015-16 and look forward to a cold & snowy return Winter 2016-17. 🙂

  25. I just noticed that per the CPC Alaska is back to a more typical cold & snowy pattern. They have been very mild like we are currently the past two years or so.

  29. Boston’s high temp last December 25 (2014) was 59.
    I’m going to go on record right now to say it will be 5 to 15 degrees cooler than that on December 25 2015. I’ll explain why shortly…

  31. TK what are your thoughts on the tweet I posted earlier from EPA wx authority saying
    ECMWF was correct and led all other models predicting phase 4/5 MJO warmth Now says phase 7 (cold/snow) post Christmas.

    1. It remains to be seen what happens beyond, though I don’t think it happens too quickly at first. Phase 7 is possible but I’d want to see other models agreeing with it.

      In the shorter to medium range, the ECMWF has been struggling. The GFS has been superior, and that is one of the reasons I’m doubting the magnitude of the warmth for Christmas. It will indeed be on the warm side of average, but it may not be as warm as some are thinking…

  33. On Saturday I also watched Mary Poppins, Vicki. Something timeless about it. Julie Andrews at her pinnacle. Dick Van Dyke was good, too. My son teased me when he saw what I had on TV. This said, he knows Dad likes movies without violence or profanity. Hard to find these days.

    1. Daughter, niece and I were more into it than kids. It truly is timeless. And I am with you on nonviolence etc. Mac was too. He was a big a fan of hallmark as I am and the silly kids shows like boy meets world that actually have morals….except now that I think of it, we also loved MASH. Hmmm

    1. I don’t know but please send it here

      I was half expecting it when it started here because it truly came down in buckets.

  35. So, why did I doubt the magnitude of warmth? Because the GFS is right? Not necessarily. It predicts some big warmth too. I just have a hunch that it and other models are overdoing the amplitude and that things may end up a little more progressive as we head toward Christmas than is depicted on the models. This would not allow as much warmth to build in the East and would introduce air mass changes at fairly regular intervals.

  37. The GFS runs are starting to show more and more progression with time. Look for this model to be the leader more often than not in the weeks ahead.

    ECMWF, for example, should show a less-amplified ridge in the East around Christmas and more progression of surface features during the next couple runs.

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