Tuesday Forecast

78 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 15-19)…
No big changes for this period with everything still expected to play out as was expected yesterday.
TODAY: Lots of clouds to start with showers exiting eastern MA. Sun/cloud mix balance of day with a slight risk of a passing shower mainly northern MA and southern NH. Highs around 60 through late morning then cooling slowly this afternoon. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH or greater.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.
THURSDAY: Clouding over. PM rain. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 20-24)…
Leaning toward a little more progression than many of the models suggest. Fair and chilly December 20. Fair and milder December 21. Mild with a series of fronts and a risk of rain showers at times December 22 through early December 24. Fair and mild later December 24.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 25-29)…
Same overall pattern. Fair weather to start and end the period with some wet weather from a low pressure area passing to the north sometime in the middle of the period.

78 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, TK. I also very much appreciate your explanations. They’re thoughtful, accurate, to the point, and aimed at both lay persons like myself and experts.

    Nice rain last night. Helped me sleep.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    The skunks were out in force last night. Smelly night.

    I see that Saturday and Sunday will feel more like Winter, but short lived.

    I still see Cuttervill all over.

    Blah blah blah… 👿

        1. I hope too see it this weekend. I agree the last 3 were not the best. Hope the new one will be as good as the original. Yes I am a star wars geek lol

  8. The latest from Dr. Cohen:

    We anticipate that the additional energy pulses will be of sufficient duration and amplitude to significantly weaken the polar vortex, most likely in January. Following the weakening of the polar vortex we expect a reversal to much colder winter weather for the Eastern United States and/or Europe for the latter half of January and into February. However, if the additional energy pulses are of insufficient duration and amplitude to force a meaningful change in the polar vortex, there is little reason to anticipate any long term deviations from the mild to very mild temperatures in eastern North America and/or Europe.

    Boy does this guy hedge. And what’s this? Eastern United States and/or Europe

    Link to his blog:

    http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    1. Heard from several Dutch friends that it is extremely mild there, too. Daffodils are out, dogwood trees in partial bloom. No frost in sight.

      I look forward to 3 days of normal this weekend. The weather today stinks to high heaven, in my book. I was out running just now. It’s disturbingly warm. A great day in late March or April. A head-scratcher in December, especially after all the warmth we’ve endured since September.

      1. So it’s either going to turn much colder mid-January OR
        it’s going to remain Mild to very mild the whole Winter.
        So which is it going to be?

        Reminds me of several Winters ago where various Mets kept
        saying the cold was coming and it never did of course. 😀

    1. Love the wind and even the mild. Since I know we get December patterns like this now and again, the spirit of the season never allows me to despise the weather. Don’t get me wrong. I love the cold and the pre Christmas snows when we get that, but this is just fine too. 🙂

      1. Agree as you know. And all the gifts I have so far are wrapped. That truly gets me into the spirit 🙂

  10. Did I ever say how much I despise the US postal service?????

    Was in line for an hour to mail 2 packages!!! It SUCKED!!!

    Had a horrific dream that the roof was leaking badly with water dripping from the ceilings and while checking it out a huge gust of wind blew the roof off. Very realistic dream. YIKES!

    1. Did you dream about USPS also?

      UPS is on my daughter’s list of not too cool. The threw a gift she had ordered onto our driveway. She heard it break from inside the house. By the time she got outside, truck had left. She asked what to do….she had to do the calling, etc. I watched same delivery woman throw a package onto a neighbor’s front stoop yesterday.

      1. I would go down to the local P.O. branch and talk to them. Sounds like Ms. Scrooge is on the job.
        If no luck I would call my US rep. and see if he will act in the name of constituent service. It is a Fed function, the Post Office.

        1. Sorry. I should have made sure to mention I switched carrier topics. It was UPS….why the initials are so similar is beyond me. We adore our mail carrier.

    2. Yes, and that’s the biggest reason I do not like this weather and find it hard to get into a Christmas or holiday spirit. December is not supposed to be like this, at least not day in day out. I do not mean it’s supposed to snow all month or be cold all the time. But, consistently above 50F – particularly after a warm autumn, is a bit much. TK and Vicki are positive people. We can learn a lot from them in this regard. This said, I’m not cool (literally) with this weather.

  12. The people who plow for a living or work at a ski area this stretch of mild weather really hurting those folks in the wallets. While many are loving this weather there are those hurt by this weather.

  13. The snow is piling up about an 8 hour drive from here. Far northern Maine may actually be positively impacted by El Nino as far as snow is concerned. While the temps will be above normal, the jet stream will bring storm after storm their way. Because above normal temps up there still allow for snow, this is what you get:

    http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/USME0431:1:US?phenomena=WS&significance=W&areaid=MEZ002&office=KCAR&etn=0013&tid=774886

  15. Thanks tk 🙂

    Absolutely splendid day!!! Little windy, but no complaining here, take windy and 58 degrees over cold and snow any day. Models continue to suggest overall mild weather going into January. “Enjoy the weather because it’s the only weather we have”. Joe Bastardi.

    Again we deserve this over last years terrible last half of winter and even always froze to death in March, when your suppose to be mild. I just keep thinking in 2 months much much longer days, and will be thinking spring. 🙂 enjoy the day whw friends.

  16. I think we all agree that El Nino is having a tremendous impact on the atmospheric pattern ….

    Here’s the problem with that and the long range models ….

    There’s probably very little, if any, of the atmosphere being sampled above that part of the ocean. And thus, a huge important piece of mid and upper atmospheric data is missing from the medium and long range models.

    I’m going with persistence in the medium and long range. Too much important data missing from the models.

  18. When your looking at a good amount of instability for Christmas Eve projected on the latest run of 12z GFS run in D.C. Baltimore up to southern PA you know you have a very warm air mass in place and unstable enough for thunderstorm development. No thunderstorms here but it shows you how warm this air mass is going to be. Looking at the instability and what part of the country its in you would not think December.
    CAPE
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015121512&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=225
    LIFT
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015121512&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=225

  19. Hi all, enjoying the lovely warm day, and even the (sound of the) rain earlier.

    Heading off to London for the week after Christmas through the 5th of January. How is El Nino affecting Europe? Are we looking at continued rain in the British Isles? They’ve been warm too, bit a stiff breeze and downpour can make things feel raw.

    1. El Nino has less of an impact on Europe than it does North America. They’re experiencing mild temperatures, as you mentioned. Also lots of rain and wind throughout England and Scotland. Judging from the UK Met office as well as a Dutch weather service I look at the prevailing (well, overwhelming) southwesterly will be dominant as it usually is this time of year, carrying with it numerous lows. This said, you will likely have an occasional sunny break, albeit fleeting. Generally, the outlook is for mostly light rain every day, 40s and even 50s during the day (40s at night). be prepared for a lot of darkness as it’s up to a couple of hours darker there than it is here (further from the equator), plus the overcast weather. Notwithstanding the less than stellar weather forecast, you’ll have a jolly splendid time. England (London) is a beautiful place, with lovely people.

    1. I,haven’t seen that daesh was credibly responsible. It would seem NY did not think it had originated from the group based on its reasons for discounting it. I agree with a rocket to nowhere as long as we understand these are radical terrorists.

    1. They’re disgusting and vile. They’re also really ignorant. Their preoccupation is wreaking havoc. That’s the only thing they’re good at. I don’t fear them. I think ISIS will die out, as it offers people nothing. No future. No prosperity. Obviously no freedom. Just a radical interpretation of Islam that is rejected by the vast majority of Muslims around the world. Once the thrill of violence is over for the young men and women who join, and once they realize that Raqqa is as far from utopia is you can get, the organization will implode. It already is in parts of Iraq and Syria. I believe recent attacks outside the self-proclaimed caliphate demonstrate a desperateness on the part of the group to remain relevant and active.

    1. I,think they have done this in the recent past…last year??

      But that confuses me. I know temp is a contributing factor but light is critical also. TK?

      2. Yes we’ve had false blossoms several times before down there. The thing now is the media counts on the majority of people forgetting that it has happened before so they can use it as a shock value item.

  24. I just got a service call for dandy lions, this is a 1st time I have ever had a broad leaf weed service call a week before Christmas. Again I’m not complaining!! 🙂

      1. No, typically no pre emergents go down, I’m not a big chemical type guy, the less the better. Only crab grass pre emergents in April and May and June. 🙂

      2. Also this is germinating in December, I’m not sure applying a pre emergent in Sept would have worked in late December.

  25. I believe that I heard Eric say that Buffalo will be 50s-near 60 on Christmas Eve. I can only imagine what our temps will be then…60+??

    TK – For December are we heading toward unprecedented territory here? And will January be pretty much a carbon copy?

    1. Not unprecedented completely. Just an area we don’t get to all that often. But how often have we had an El Nino this strong, centered where it is, in the orientation that it is, with the other indices just as they are? Not too many. It’s actually just a reaction of the atmosphere to what the conditions are. I’d be more worried if it wasn’t doing this. 🙂

  27. Buffalo… No snow and very warm for December 2015. Record snow for November 2014.
    Average weather is a human-labeled “midpoint” somewhere between the extremes. Average weather does not occur that often. In fact, it’s far more rare than something closer to both extremes.

  28. I’m hoping for a winter like 4 or 5 yrs ago, ik that is very unlikely, BUT a snowfall total of 15-25 inches is very welcome. 🙂

    1. If you’re talking about your area the 15-25 is within the realm of possibility in a Winter such as the one we’re heading into. But do know that I used the word “possibility” and not “certainty”.

  29. TK, your comment on “average” or mid-point winters is spot on as the British say. The problem with the use of “average” extends beyond weather. Declaring that someone is an average patient is nonsensical. In health care there is no average or even typical patient. Such a thing is a statistical construct, not a real, living and breathing entity. What we can say in health care – and I believe meteorology as well – is that a patient exhibits an unusual or out of the ordinary set of symptoms, or reaction to a drug. Bringing this back to weather, this month is unusual or out of the ordinary in terms of the temperature anomaly, just as last year’s snow blitz was unusual and out of the ordinary.

  31. Buffalo snowless December…1899

    Boston snowfall 1899-1900 = 25.0″

    TK РDoes this mean that Winter 1899-1900 was El Ni̱o?

    1. ENSO was not really “discovered” until 1950 but it is entirely possible 1899-1900 was an El Nino year.

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