Wednesday Forecast

95 Comments

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 16-20)…
Small area of high pressure brings fair weather today. A broad area of low pressure will cross the region Thursday and early Friday with unsettled weather – again rain instead of snow due to mild air. Fair, windy, and cooler weather returns during Friday and sets up a seasonably chilly, dry weekend.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind light E.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs in the 50s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 21-25)…
Fair and milder December 21. Mild with a series of fronts and a risk of rain showers at times December 22 through early December 24. Fair and mild later December 24 through December 25.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 26-30)…
Next risk of unsettled weather from late December 26 to early December 28 then fair weather returns. Temperatures continue to run above normal.

95 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    It appears November was a very warm month across the globe. We are only half way through, but my educated guess is that December will also come in globally as a very warm month. So, not just in New England. As everyone on this blog knows I am not an alarmist. I believe in a careful consideration of climate data, taking into account trends and the cyclical nature of weather and climate. I do not take it as given that the changes we have seen in recent decades are caused by humans. More research needs to be done to prove this. At the same time, I believe that being prudent stewards of our resources, cutting back on our wasteful consumption of energy, and diminishing obvious pollutants, are imperative for all who inhabit the earth. I also think it would be folly to ignore the global data on a warming climate.

    1. Good morning and thank you TK.

      Although it is considerably cooler this morning, it is still MILD.
      I was really noticing how mild as I walked from my car to the office
      this morning.

      Perhaps this weekend it will feel more seasonable, albeit for only a couple
      of days. Destined to warm right back up again.

      re: Bastardi
      TK has it correct. This so reminds me of 2011-2012 where after that
      October dumping, it was very mild and everyone was looking for that
      change to cold. Sudden Stratospheric warming etc etc. That NEVER came.

      I hope this is not a repeat performance from Mother Nature.

      Joshua, you are our voice of reason. Nicely stated. Thank you.

      If we don’t wake up regarding Climate and man’s contribution to it, we’ll be
      in deep trouble IF it’s not already too late.

    3. Nicely said Josh, however to think our dot in the essence of this world billion year lifetime is simply irresponsible. I sometimes wonder if humans were here during the ice age, if we would have tried messing with that in someway. I think what we have done to responsibly record, monitor, and really be environmentally aware of it all,,,, and continue to monitor and be smart about this, but certainly not go crazy about it. We have only been here for a extremely short time to judge billions of years. We all have to be smart about this, and not jump to conclusions. Have a great day!! 🙂

  5. Can someone tell me where or if the Pike goes through Waltham? The new traffic reporter on 7 reported a week or so ago that traffic slowed on the pike through Waltham. I thought I had heard incorrectly. This morning she said the same thing and I did hear it correctly. For the life of me, I do not know where the Mass Pike meets Waltham.

    And what happened to the old traffic guy? I always liked him.

    1. It does NOT. Brighton to Newton to Weston and beyond.

      There is, however, a Waltham Street interchangein NEWTON on the Pike.

      Perhaps, that’s what the dingbat on the radio meant.

      I looked on a map, NO WAY, it passes through ANY part of Waltham!

      1. Thanks, Dave. I didn’t think so but then since she has mentioned it at least twice….

        I think I’ll write to the station. If she is going to give traffic, she should really know where the roads go.

        1. Anyone who has driven into Waltham knows that there is no such thing as a road that goes “through Waltham.” That city is a maze. I call it no-mans-land!

          It is worth navigating, though, for some of the restaurants.

          Of course, the Pike goes well south of Waltham.

          Thank goodness for google maps and other online mapping sites. They give up to the minute traffic flow and they even know where the roads go as well!

          1. Spent lots of time in Waltham in the mid 1990s. Got to know the roads well and you are right. 🙂

          2. Trapelo Road comes to mind, MassBay.

            Lexington Street in the other direction perhaps.

            Otherwise, I’m coming up empty also. Growing up in Belmont brought me to or through Waltham a lot.

  6. Thanks TK !

    The 4 major southern New England climate reporting stations through Dec 15th are at +9.8F, 10F, 10.1F and 11F temperature anomalies.

  8. Thanks tk 🙂

    Brrr!!! What the hek happen!!! (Kidding). I will say though today looks to be below normal with highs only reaching 43-44 degrees. (Average high is 44-45 degrees).

    Tk, am I seeing the models correctly?? Mid 60’s for Christmas Eve day, and Christmas Day? Then mid 50’s for the New Year?? Thank you in advance. 🙂

        1. The only snow chance I see for a while is isolated light snow showers (if they survive the trip) on Saturday of this week. Anything that takes place after that (during the next 2 weeks) will be “lucky timing”.

  9. BTW… It’s not Winter yet, so it’s a bit premature to judge what kind of Winter we’re having. 😉

    1. True, BUT in a typical Winter we would have had some snow by now and it
      would certainly be colder that this. 😀

      1. But December average snow is 9 inches. I would think that means we have a lot of Decembers without snow – especially since I can remember some blockbusters in December. I also think Decembers have tended to trend a bit warmer of late. Not every year to be sure but more than I remember from a couple of decades ago and previous to that.

        1. All through my life my memories of Decembers are that big snow totals are the exception. And many of the cold ones have been dry with light snowfalls.

    1. Interesting. But to me, I like to look at the surface and upper air charts
      for the event.

      Here is the surface (remember this is 16 days out. HIGHLY unlikely things will
      pan out exactly as depicted here, but rather perhaps something to watch)

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121612/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

      850mb nice and cold

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121612/gfs_T850_us_53.png

      nice looking 500MB

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121612/gfs_z500a_us_53.png

      and 250 mb

      http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015121612/gfs_uv250_us_53.png

      1. And here is a nice 500MB vorticity chart

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151216+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

        Nifty 300mb chart

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_300_wnd_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=300_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151216+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

        and a nice surface chart showing surface temps BELOW freezing from Boston N&W. VERY INTERESTING, now let’s see IF it even comes close to happening!!!!

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_384_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151216+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

  11. Vicki, December has not been cold the past few years. However, from 2005 – 2010 I can recall several cool to cold Decembers. They came with snow and periods of real cold.

    I don’t need snow to feel well-adjusted weather-wise. I do need seasonable temps. This weekend I’ll feel well-adjusted. After that, not so much.

    1. Haha – I wish it were just weather that would help. I’m not sure I have ever been well adjusted 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  12. Dave I think this is the same system a couple days ago you posted a link from GFS which showed a 995 low which on Monday showed rain for our area.
    I am not getting my hopes up since we saw the same thing a couple weeks ago with the GFS wanting to give us some snow and we know that is not going to happen.

  13. Eric Fisher said they are considering reopening the Mt Washington auto road for the first time in winter.

    As great as that sounds, this is not a good thing. Too many livelihoods depend on snow. And sadly the ski areas are already struggling as they have not had consistently good snow seasons in certainly a decade…perhaps more.

    Sunappe also is closed. They said they have had only one night since end of November when they can make snow.

    1. Very sad indeed. A whole industry going down the tubes because
      of EL NINO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      I say we should BAN EL NINO!!!

      1. hahahaha – I suspect it is El Nino this year…but all of the others? I think we need to consider banning things that Mom Nature doesn’t control.

  14. TK – When it eventually does snow around here, how will get the final total for the season?

    A. One big dumping (2’+)
    B. A few moderate events
    C. Bits and pieces spread out during February-March

    1. I hope ALL of the above.
      It wouldn’t surprise me if it were any of the above or NONE of the above even.

      I think it is entirely possible that we get at least one big dump.
      To me a big dump is certainly 1 foot+, preferably 1.5 feet+.

      1. I actually thought of ALL of the above as an option but given the strength of El Niño, we may have to take whatever snow we can get.

  17. The EURO’s 850 mb temps 10 days out are eye popping in this particular projection.

    12 to 15C over southern New England, with a 15 to 18C bubble just to the southwest.

  19. Regarding the fantasy story on the 12z GFS: Fantasy. ZERO support from ensembles and a very very different set-up on the run compared to all others before it. RED FLAG.

    Regarding the weather for Christmas Day: Windy and turning cool with a few rain or snow showers possible. Don’t count out that scenario. No we won’t have a snowstorm out of nowhere that day.

    Regarding the ski industry: They’ve had some great years recently. And the season is young. They’ll have some recovery as the season goes on. They made out great last year not so much because they got dumped with snow like we did. They were SO COLD for so long they made snow basically forever. That’s the nature of the beast. Feast or famine.

    1. If the ski conditions remain the same going into the week between xmas and New Years it’s a whole new ball game. That’s historically one of their biggest revenue makers of the entire season. Growing up we always went skiing that week. I remember some snowless times but it was more than cold enough to maintain man made snow. We’ll see in a few weeks but I think they’re in big trouble.

      1. My guess is your parents remember very few snowless times. If I recall correctly they skied the same area we did. I’m giving my brother a call tonight. I’m curious to hear his comments. He has skied for 71 years and has been on sunappe ski patrol for many of those although his skiing extended further north for the most part.

        And manmade snow only is awful….was it you who said that yesterday ?

        1. That indeed was me who made the man made snow comment 🙂 My dad and aunt remember VERY few snowless xmas/New Years vacation weeks up in North Conway. And when they were snowless it was at least cold.

          1. Funny how there are three of us here who may well have crossed paths….Keith, your dad and aunt (i know they are not technically here) and me. Talked to my brother a bit ago. He said it is very different than it was. I want to ask Mac’s cousin also who now owns the ski camp her dad built just above Stowe 60+ years ago.

    2. The few recent years have been just that …. Few. Many areas have yet to recover from the lack of snow prior to those few. Many that once thrived are depressed. This from family and friends who are lifelong skiers and also from clients we have in ski areas. Remember cross country and snowmobiling. They cannot make snow

  20. I’ll be away from blog for much of this evening. Winterfest Concert at the school in which my son (for the first time ever for any student) is performing in 4 outfits: Marching band (bells), a cappela choir (vocals), chorus (vocals) , and concert band (piano/synth).

  22. TK – Regarding white Christmases, Boston has a 25% chance and I am wondering if from the early 20th century and back to colonial times were the chances much greater of having a white Christmas around here given that the earth was so much cooler than it is today or just about the same percentage wise?

    1. As far as we can tell, it’s the same pretty much all through our history. And it comes in stretches sometimes where you’ll have maybe 7 out of 10 years white and then only 1 out of 5 the next decade.

      The long term average works out to 1 in 4.

    5. Thanks coastal. I had not seen this.

      He went through a cancer scare with a family member and reached out to me several times just because he is that kind of person. I pray this is a positive move. My guess is JR will move in. Oddly, I’ve has the sense lately he was being groomed. He is good. But he is not Pete

    1. It was worth repeating. I know from comments from Pete it is a hell hole which is why I always reacted as I did. Management dictates and could give a darn about reputation. I don’t know how to tweet but will figure it out. I hope all works out well for Pete. He is an amazing person with a huge heart.

  27. This is a blow to the ski industry. While December snows are not a guarantee up north, snow-making more or less is, at least for a period of time. That looks less and less likely. And, one of their biggest weeks of the year will be lost. That’s huge for the relatively small operations. We shouldn’t underestimate the effects. I’m an economist, so my job in part is to analyze effects of external events. We call them exogenous shocks. They have much more impact than one would think. Weather, for example, is a major factor in seasonal adjustments to the economy. Too much warmth can be an issue for ski tourism in winter. Too much cold and snow can be a problem for urban areas in winter (Boston, early February 2015). On the whole, economies fare better with milder winters than severe ones. However, local industries (eg, ski areas) are negatively impacted by unusually mild winters. One must take into account that it’s not just the ski chalets and operators. It’s the money being pumped into the towns that depend on skiers and the ability to ski. Much like the Cape would be negatively impacted by a rainy, cool summer. A killer for small businesses.

    My sister’s lived in Vermont for the past 12 years. She’s never seen it this mild, and never seen so little snow. I can attest to this, too, as I go up there often. Even in 2011, when I went up to Vermont, there was some snow and it snowed while I was there. Of the past 12, the only year there wasn’t any snow was last year, but it had been cold enough to support snow-making most of the time in the ski areas. Hence, plenty of snow on the mountain slopes.

    1. To clarify, I’m talking about snow or lack of snow in December in Vermont. So my reference to last year was last December. Obviously they did get their share of snow from January through March.

    2. I gotta be honest, everyone I have talked to, which have been many, are happy it’s mild. Hopefully not offending anyone, just saying. 🙂

  28. I know this is a weather blog looking for exciting cold crazy weather, but I’m a person that is fine with pleasant non exciting weather that causes delays,closing’s, emergency’s etc, I’m ok with easy living:)

      1. Charlie, you are probably in the majority. That is, the majority of people prefer mild over cold. I understand. This said, I think many of us live in New England, and not, say, North Carolina, for the distinct seasons and seasonal change. I really couldn’t live in a place with limited seasonal change. This December is therefore a disappointment to those of us who like seasonal change. I’m not asking for blizzards or extreme cold, but just some seasonable weather. The flipside of this is early June this year when it was still in the upper 40s in Boston. There’s something off about June in the upper 40s and 50s. I know I don’t like it, just as there’s something off about December in the 50s.

        1. I completely understand what you are saying Joshua, but I think many are here for there jobs, I’ve heard of many taking a lower salary to stay in warmer climates for less money. This is not a shot at anyone here, as I live here too, it really is the truth though. 🙂

          1. COL far less in other climates so I’m not buying the sacrifice thing. If a person chooses to live where there are seasons, no matter the reason, then they have only themselves to blame.

  29. That’s sucks Pete B left he was my favorite. Channel 7 sucks!!! Except they have hot anchor women. So that mitigates some of the sucking. If they did not have them they would really suck

    1. Not a fan of their anchor women and really not a fan of this tendency to hire women to appeal to the viewing public. Not referring to you at all. Just seems to be a very demeaning trend

  30. One of the main reasons why it is so expensive here, I’d because they keep the housing inventory so very low. 🙂

    2. Didn’t see this comment. Thanks for verifying comment I just made :). And there are plenty of places for sale.

  31. Sorry to see Pete go. Hopefully JR will take over the Chief Met position as I always trust his forecasts. JR reminds me a bit of Todd Gross minus the “antics” so to speak. 😉

    I have no idea what new NBC Boston is. ???

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