Saturday Forecast

62 Comments

8:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)…
Let’s play warm front / cold front! Today is warm front day. The front that slogged through as a cold front on Friday and barely dropped the humidity while allowing it to get quite hot was technically labeled as a cold front, but did not do much in the way of delivering any refreshing air, nor did it bring anything resembling beneficial rain. Our warm front / cold front combination this weekend may do slightly better in the rain department, but stress the word “slightly” here. Again, we’ll not receive a beneficial rain over the entire region. After a warm front that just brings a few scattered showers as it pushes through today, a cold front coming through at the “wrong time”, i.e., before maximum heating, on Sunday will muster a few showers and downpours, but again leave many areas high and dry. Once this front gets offshore Sunday afternoon, drier air will arrive in more force along with fair weather that lasts through Tuesday, courtesy of high pressure. As this high slips to the south Tuesday and Wednesday, a warm-up will ensue, but just as it’s about to get that late-season hot/humid feel, it will be cut off at the pass later Wednesday by a stronger cold front from the north, which will bring a shower and thunderstorm threat.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny – greatest chance of sunshine south of Boston. Isolated to scattered showers but most areas dry. Increasing humidity. Highs 74-81. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated showers overnight. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind SE to S up to 15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy through midday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms including a few possible downpours. Clearing trend west to east afternoon. Decreasing humidity. Highs 76-83. Wind S to SW up to 20 MPH with higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60, coolest in southern NH and north central MA. Wind W up to 15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Highs 77-84.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of midday and afternoon showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-86.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)…
Shot of cooler/drier air Thursday September 15 with fair weather. High pressure will be in control September 16-18 with fair weather, cool mornings September 16-17, slow warming trend each afternoon through September 18. By September 19 a shot of heat/humidity precedes the next front and there may be a shower/t-storm threat – of course timing uncertain this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)…
Overall pattern remains dry with above normal temperatures.

62 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    1. The good news is, we never get as bad as somewhere like California. We’ll recover far more quickly than they will. By the end of summer 2017, it would not surprise me if we have made up the deficit and more.

  7. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Hurricanes never form within how many degrees latitude of the Equator?

    A. 5 degrees
    B. 10 degrees
    C. 15 degrees
    D. 20 degrees

    Answer later today.

    3. I know this, having forecast tropical cyclones in every basin of the world for years, so I won’t give it away. 🙂 I disqualify myself.

      It should also be noted, that once the answer is revealed, it will only be partially true, because the “rule”, which is only a rule because we say so, has been “broken” twice in recorded history, and probably countless times before recorded history. This once again will solidify my often-made statement about reaching solid conclusions about weather-related things based solely on “recorded history”. You leave yourself such a small sample to pull from that accuracy of the statement is virtually guaranteed to fail.

      2. I’ll go with C since no one has mentioned it

        I absolutely agree re conclusions re climate trends. Our time here is not more than a blink in time. What we do have is enough data to know we are destroying the earth and that has to be entered in the equation and we need to stop playing political games and do something….although chances are that we are already too late since we take one step forward and two back.

  8. So Far, the showers are holding together as they March Northeastward.

    We shall see. They best get through here soon.

    Wedding on the beach in Plymouth at 5PM.

    1. Showers are actually moving more ENE.
      IF they hold together, Boston “could” get clipped by the Southern edge.

      Plymouth “should” be spared regardless, I hope.

      Just never know when/where something else will pop up.

      1. Warm front. The atmosphere will not be that unstable around here once that front goes by. We have to wait about 24 hours for the cold front. That has some good juice to work with and lots of shear, but the timing is not good. We’ll probably split the difference tomorrow.

    1. Tiny taste Sunday night and Monday is about all we can muster until later in the week. That trough is going to swing through here so fast by Tuesday we’re back in return flow of high pressure already sinking to the south.

      The cool shot later in the week may have a little more punch to it, but again will be fleeting.

      1. Yeah, that’s the one I’m hopeful for. Interesting how even this rather potent front that will move by tomorrow still doesn’t bring much relief. Stubbornly warm pattern, but I guess that’s what we were expecting for this month.

        2. I have been surprised by very little in the weather department over the last year. I’ve found it to be a fairly forecastable long term pattern and feel this will continue for quite a while.

  10. As I drove rt 16 from newton to Sutton, the clouds were thicker and lower. I had four raindrops through Holliston and even more into Milford….just not enough to use the wipers. We had a brief downpour in Sutton that completely wet pavement but didn’t trip gauge

    I’ve decided that the clouds could sink to the ground and still not give up any liquid.

      1. It was awesome and if I hadn’t looked at the car thermometer I would have thought it was a fall sky blanketed by clouds

  12. It rained hard in Back Bay for 10-15 minutes. Certainly enough to produce puddles. Of course it stopped, but at least we got a decent shower. My estimate would be around 0.05 inch. Nothing to write home about, but I’ll take anything at this point.

  13. Porcello has been masterful this year. I was totally wrong about him. I thought he couldn’t handle Boston. Not true.

    The Sox-Yankees rivalry may heat up this year in ways it hasn’t for quite some time. If the Sox lose today – which looks likely – and the Yankees win (they play later) a mere 3 games will separate them with a big series looming at Fenway next weekend. It’s as close as I’ve ever seen it this late in the season in the AL East with 4 teams vying for the division or a wildcard spot.

    1. Agree totally. I was wrong about Porcello as well. Very pleased he figured it out.
      He’s really an excellent pitcher.

      re: Pennant Race

      4 teams down to the wire. It doesn’t get any better than this.

      Reminds me a bit of 1967.

      Too bad Rodriguez was off just a bit today and the Toronto pitcher Happ?
      Is really on his game today, fooling the Sox hitters left and right.

  15. Great forecasting Tk as usual. You said a hot summer , you said a drought and you said a warm fall , trifecta brother Tk you win . I’m hearing all these people now saying how bad the winter is going to be I don’t think that bad .

    1. A common saying every year around here literally. Every winter is always predicted to be bad. But what really is bad?

      1. 95-96 winter comes to mind as bad winter where some cities like Philly, NYC, and Boston had their snowiest winters on record. The record still stands for NYC but Boston and Philly have new snowfall records for amount of snow in a winter. Snow that year continued into the first part of April. Winter 10-11 winter was bad for a six week stretch beginning in late December through early February. You take away those six weeks it was not a bad winter. Of course bad if you hate snow great if you love snow with those winters.

  17. SSK, You are absolutely right about our commander-in-chief, TK. His forecasts blow me away. Perhaps more importantly, I’ve learned a lot from his explanations. My weather knowledge is limited to observation, historical knowledge of patterns, and a very basic ability to understand models. TK’s explanations have expanded my meteorological horizons immensely, and I’m grateful for that.

    Ona different topic, Sox know how to pound opposition, but they’re subpar when it comes to 1 run, low-scoring games. No easy solution for this. It’s going to be nail-biting time, and that’s a good thing. September baseball when it’s meaningful is a lot of fun.

  18. Good shear in NY. Some cells may rotate.
    Shear here in the AM and midday but not optimal timing of the front. Though southeastern MA may get a little surprise around midday Sunday.

  19. SSK, You are absolutely right about our commander-in-chief, TK. His forecasts blow me away. Perhaps more importantly, I’ve learned a lot from his explanations. My weather knowledge is limited to observation, historical knowledge of patterns, and a very basic ability to understand models. TK’s explanations have expanded my meteorological horizons immensely, and I’m grateful for that.

    On a different topic, Sox know how to pound opposition, but they’re subpar when it comes to 1 run, low-scoring games. No easy solution for this. It’s going to be nail-biting time, and that’s a good thing. September baseball when it’s meaningful is a lot of fun.

  22. I gave up and opens Windows. I detest not opening windows in summer. There is quite a nice breeze going right through house

  24. Come playoff time, most of the games are tight low scoring games. Of the sox get in, they won’t last long.

  25. Answer to the AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Hurricanes never form within how many degrees latitude of the Equator?

    A. 5 degrees
    B. 10 degrees
    C. 15 degrees
    D. 20 degrees

    The answer is A.

        1. Nooooooooo

          Everyone loves the quizzes. I sometimes know answers and sometimes guess as I did today. But I always like to read about the answers. They are as much a learning experience on here as anything else. I’d bet my bottom dollar TK thinks so too.

        3. Keep posting them! That one held a great example of the way weather does not fall into the solid boundaries in which we try to confine it.:)

  26. My radar said no severe warnings bc problems with NWS. Is that what was mentioned earlier? And is that the case with all radars? So we would not know if there is a warning in this area?

  29. Yep windows closed and AC back on. Odd that as hot as summer was I never ran AC overnight and always left window open.

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