Sunday Forecast

108 Comments

11:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
No significant changes on this post. A cold front pushed through the region and will settle to the south of the region and slow down as a wave of low pressure develops and moves along it, keeping the bulk of its precipitation offshore but tossing a little snow into southeastern MA for a period of time late Monday. An upper disturbance may produce a few snow showers Tuesday before high pressure moves in Wednesday for a cold/dry end to the month. A warm front will push into the region on Thursday with clouds but milder weather.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers South Coast through early afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow mainly late and night mainly southeastern MA, mix most likely at the onset. Highs 33-39. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of snow southeastern MA with minor accumulation. Lows 25-32. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the lower to middle 30s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Cold front pushes through the region Friday February 2 with a risk of rain showers turning to snow showers but will monitor in case a wave of low pressure enhances precipitation. Fair, cold Saturday February 3. A disturbance may bring a few snow showers Sunday February 4. Fair, cold Monday February 5. Looking at the risk of some snow by February 6 depending on the track of low pressure moving into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Expecting a battle between cold air from Canada and milder air in the southeastern US likely resulting in some unsettled episodes of weather here along with variable temperatures.

108 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thank you TK.

    Re-posts

    JpDave says:
    January 28, 2018 at 11:40 AM
    12Z CMC still wants to deliver a light snowfall tomorrow night into Tuesday

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018012812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018012812/gem_asnow_neus_15.png

    JpDave says:
    January 28, 2018 at 11:42 AM
    CMC for Friday

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018012812/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

    24 hour 10:1 snow

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2018012812/gem_asnow24_neus_20.png

  4. Thanks TK!

    Blizzard Commemoration week may be interesting. Hopefully not historical as to not overshadow it.

      1. Agreed but any significant amount would get the public automatically thinking a repeat…you know what I mean? 😉

        Of course us here on the blog would know better.

  6. I am confused as to why folks keep saying we didn’t have any warning for 1978. I’d worked at my company for nine years at that point. For the first and only time in the 40+ years I was there, all managers met to set up a plan to notify employees whether there would be work the next day. This was early morning. We were then sent home.

    One VP who was also a friend, stood at the door as we left saying he’d see us the next day…kiddingly. He was one of the many cars stuck on 128 and ended up offering shelter to a family with children in his car.

    2. For the time, there was a reasonable warning. There were several media sources warning of a potential major snowstorm 2 1/2 days beforehand, 3 in a few cases.

    3. I would say that mets know of an impending storm beforehand, but no one
      that I recall ever forecast the magnitude of that beast. It was the period between Monday AM and around Noonish or so that forecasters realized what they had on their hands. I remember listening to Bruce Schwoegler on the radio calling for an HISTORICAL SNOW STORM, but this was Noonish or a bit after as he came in to relieve Don Kent. I knew we were in for a good one, but never did I expect the beast we got.

      I remember being on the phone with a customer of ours in Warwick RI
      telling me how awful it was down there. I kept looking out the window
      only to see cloudy skies and spits of light snow here and there.
      I didn’t have access to the internet and online radar displays. It was driving me nuts.

      Management got word of something because they closed down the offices
      about 3PM. Of course I was the last to leave and locked up shortly after 4PM.
      There was about 1/2 inch on the ground. I took the bus home from
      Copley Square to JP. When I arrived in JP it was snowing like hell with a
      good 5-6 inches on the ground already. The snow moved northward slowly, but arrived as a wall of snow.

      1. My father was literally the last car on my street that evening as he arrived safe and sound around 7:20 PM IIRC.

        1. We always had diner promptly at 7:00 so naturally we were concerned. That’s why I remember the exact time pretty much. I left the dinner table and looked out the front window. I was so relieved at his arrival. 🙂

      2. I remember after the storm better than during …:

        I remember no cars driving on the streets for many days after and my dad and I walking a couple miles to Demoulas (now Market Basket) to get groceries. We brought my sled to pull the bags back home.

  8. “Weather” Quizzes.
    1) In the blizzard of 1978, which governor declared a state of emergency and banned all but essential travel from the state’s roads?

    A. John Volpe
    B. Francis Sargent
    C. Michael Dukakis
    D. Edward King

    2. As a result of the Blizzard of 1978, portions of coastal MA were declared federal disaster areas by …

    A. Richard Nixon
    B. Gerald Ford
    C. Jimmy Carter
    D. Ronald Regan

    No Google lookups. Answers later today.

      1. And just for the record, I NEVER use Google for the quizzes here. If I truly don’t know the answer, I just guess if necessary.

  12. There are a few You Tube video and audio files about the New England Blizzard of 1978. I have included the links here: The first one is from Channel 7 from WNAC. I think it aired Saturday night, February 11. If you watch to the end, there is a VERY young Harvey Leonard recapping the blizzard.

    There’s a WBZ-Radio audio clip with the voices of Larry Glick and Gary LaPierre.
    I also included a bloopers reel from WBZ-Channel 4.
    Channel 7:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDivFrck9iU
    WEEI:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbLu2nZL35s
    WBZ Radio:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNxZjsoAHqI
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WicUjGNCUJY&t=228s
    WHDH Radio:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDlel472kHc&t=3s
    Channel 4 Bloopers:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClAd9F-uKd8&t=183s
    NOAA Weather Radio:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6lP8qgoXqM&t=223s

  13. There were warnings prior to the Blizzard of `78. I was a `paper boy’ as they used to call it. That is, I delivered newspapers (Boston Globe) on my bike. I had a 2 mile route (loop). Did this for 4 years; from `75 to `79. I remember being called by the Globe distribution center a few hours before the storm on the afternoon of the 6th of February. They told me that I could deliver on the evening of the storm (this was when there was a morning and evening edition of the Globe), but that I should expect not to have to deliver the following day as a “major” storm was about to “hit.”

  14. Obviously no memories from me of ’78. But I love reading about everyone else’s experience with it. A true generational storm. In terms of all around impact, I think it tops the list for winter storms in the past 100 years. Some other storms since have been “stronger” (e.g. 1/4/18) and a couple have produced comparable or slightly higher snow totals (e.g. February 2013) but they will never have the all around history of ’78.

  15. TK:
    Thanks again for your 1978 snowstorm retrospective from last Saturday. I have read it a couple of times. I read with particularly fondness your “snow song”: “Sentimental Lady” by Bob Welch.
    When it snows, I always smell chocolate. I grew up in the north end of Mansfield in the shadow of the Merckens chocolate factory. It was originally the world-famous Lowney chocolate factory.
    During each nor’easter, the smell of chocolate would mix with the snowfall.
    Despite the separation of distance and time, I still smell chocolate during snowstorms.

    1. For years, an east southeast wind, especially springtime seabreezes, would bring the smell of flavored gelatin from about 1 mile away to our neighborhood, as the General Foods plant sat down by Route 93 near the Woburn / Stoneham line. It closed a couple years ago.

  19. After tomorrow’s grazer, 3 more snow events on the 12z Euro….Friday 2/2, Sun night into Monday 2/4-2/5 and then again 2/6-2/7.

    12z GFS is a miss for a Friday but has snow events on 2/5, 2/8-9 and 2/12.

    None of these look like blockbusters but it would indeed appear that we are entering a more active/wintery period.

    1. There was a school snow day the day after Super Bowl, 2015 AND 2016… 2018?
      The state also schedules MCAS Biology exams the Monday morning after the Super Bowl each year.

      1. They should get rid of the MCAS particularly the verbal sections, as they use words that no one ever uses. MCAS = Massachusetts child abuse system. I think standardize testing is plain stupid as it is not a good measurement of what you know. A good measurement is writing a paper.

  20. I noticed on the Channel 4 special this morning that a private school uses “virtual learning” in place of a snow day. I know that a Catholic high school in our city has tried this as well. I know that this was a topic in this blog a lttle while ago.
    The Massachusetts DESE is not against this, but has to approve a district’s plan before it can grant a virtual day as credit for a snow day. Here is the department’s response to “Virtual Days” from 2015:

    The Department has received inquiries regarding so-called “blizzard bags,” assigned work sent home with students in advance of an expected storm. In many cases, this work appears to be very similar to normal homework assignments; there is educational value, but it does not necessarily meet the standard for structured learning time. For this approach to count toward the student learning time requirements, school districts must ensure that such work is structured learning time, is substantial, and has appropriate oversight and teacher involvement. To the degree that learning outside of the school setting may rely upon parental involvement or access to technology, districts must also account for the widely varying circumstances in students’ homes. Districts are encouraged to share their experiences as they experiment with different models so that all can learn about their effectiveness and develop examples of best practices.

    Notice the term “structured learning time”. “Blizzard Bags” just can’t be “fill in this worksheet”. I believe New Hampshire uses “Blizzard Bags” in advance of major snowstorms when school is called off.

    2. Arghhhhhhhh. I understand MA has the best system in the country, but our mindset is still so far behind the best in the world.

      1. If Massachusetts was its own country, it would rank second or third in the world in terms of public education. The state is often broken out and compared with other countries on various standardized test results. We also are usually number 1 or 2 in the country every year. As an elected school committee member now serving my 14th year, I can tell you that standardized tests have their place and that The Common Core provides a solid base for public education. All of that said, I do think we over test and would like to see the number of tests administered reduced.

        1. We rank about 17 in math and a bit higher in reading in world. We will agree to disagree on testing. In many cases, we are so busy tescjingvtomthe test that We fail to focus on individual strengths.

          Our biggest failing is we do not empower our teachers, making my last sentence above a reality.

  21. With regard to warning of 1978. It had to have been far more than an average warning of a nor’easter. We met early morning….work began at 8:00 always… to set up a plan. Since it was something not done before or since by that company. We certainly didn’t know the magnitude; but we definitely knew it was something out of the norm. And My memory is not remembering incorrectly. I was part of the meeting and part of the plan. And even more important, I was excited about the storm and heading back to Macs apartment might just have played into that a tad bit.

  22. I am trying to identify if I have maples on my property that I could tape to make syrup. I snapped pictures of the bark and some leaves. I think I have a red and a sycamore maples but not sure. Is there a app or web site I could use to identify?

    1. I am no expert on this, but I do believe they need to be sugar maples.
      Different than you ordinary maples.

      Some indentifying images:

      http://www.greatermichigantimbermanagement.com/yahoo_site_admin/assets/images/sugar-maple-leaves-2.147174954_large.jpg

      http://static3.shop033.com/resources/E7/1000423/picture/D2/83477458.jpg

      http://tapmytrees.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/sugar_maple_bark_large-206×300.jpg

      http://arbordayblog.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/sugar-maple-iStock-147259434-1080×608.jpg

      http://c0380802.cdn2.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/5709-Green-Mountain-Sugar-Maple.jpg

        1. Cool, as I said, I am not any kind of expert.

          We used to have a sugar maple in our yard growing up, but we never tapped it. 😀

  27. The 18z NAM is my concern scenario. The “risk” in this forecast, something I always like to assess, is more towards getting more snow than expected versus a total miss. This is why I haven’t been willing to write this thing off.

    Having said that, the 18z NAM is *probably* overzealous.

  28. To clarify: I don’t know anything about the educational regulations in New Hampshire. I am not implying that the “Blizzard Bag” system in NH is effective or not effective or better or worse than Massachusetts. I think the way I worded my sentences above might imply as such.

    1. I must have missed something with regard to NH

      Please know my comments are not directed at you. You are the messenger. Our school system just frustrates me.

  29. Noting a large shift west on the 3km NAM as well. These are extremely large swings for one cycle at such a short lead time. Definitely have to wait for the 0z NAM runs to see if these runs are bogus or potentially possible. Of course, we also have to see if any other models start going this way. If most of the 0z guidance follows suit, there will be a major snap correction in forecasts tomorrow morning. Have to wait a little longer.

  30. 18z HRRRx, which runs to 36 hours, also looks well west versus prior guidance for tomorrow night. Unfortunately on Tropical Tidbits all there is is a simulated radar product, no accumulation maps. But from the radar, we would certainly have the plows out region-wide.

    Again, not saying this is right, but we need to see the 0z guidance before we toss it, or, if necessary, take it seriously.

          1. Not about a complete miss, but about a limited impact event focused on southeastern areas.

  35. We’ve seen the NAM do this so many times I’ve lost count.

    If you swing too much with the models, you’ll get an upset stomach. Forecast above remains the same at this time.

  37. Say what you like about the CMC, but the RGEM at 48 hours in is “usually” a pretty
    reliable Short Range Mesoscale model. We shall see very soon if it is reliable or not.

    One more thing I would like to add.

    We should NOT dismiss the 12Z Euro shift to the West. That means something.

    1. Not always. the Euro has sucked at these situations. Shorter range guidance is much better from here on, in general. However, I’m suspicious of an area of convection some of the models are develop in the Appalachians. That is the basis of the heavier snow on the models that have it. I don’t think this is accurate.

      1. ok. so that is the reason. hmm interesting.
        Well, we’ll have the 0z runs for another check. I wait.

      1. It got real thick real quick. Were there any fog advisories posted or do they not post for this type of situation?

  39. On that fateful Monday morning 40 years ago I went into work knowing something big was on tap (though I didn’t realize how big it would be). I was thinking something along the lines but probably a little less of what hit us a few weeks earlier. By 10 am upper management at the publishing company I worked for on South Street (downtown) was telling us that for now we would be working a full day. By 1pm someone had been in contact with people south of the city and in Rhode Island and they decided to let us out at 2pm. At that time it was just starting to come down a little harder in the Boston area (at least from what I remember). My friend and I left work and decided it wasn’t going to get really bad until well after dark (not sure why I thought that) and we went out for a some drinks down near Chinatown (ahem..cough cough…The Zone LOL). Anyway after several drinks we left the bar around 5 or 6 only step outside into something I had never before experienced…Near zero visibility and winds that must have been over 40 at that point. Made my way a block or two up to the Essex T stop (the Orange Line) and boarded a train headed southbound toward Forest Hills (I was living in Roslindale at the time…up past the Square near Metropolitian Avenue). The train was full but not wall to wall. It seemed like what was normally a 15-20 minute ride took hours…in fact it probably took over an hour. The train seemed to rock with every blast of wind and of course it was scary since the Orange Line was Elevated at that time. Going by the curved section (not as bad as the inbound track) of the outbound track was a nightmare and it felt like the train was going to tip over. Finally got to Forest Hills sometime after 7pm only to find that almost all buses had stopped running. Ended up walking up Washington Street to home in the worst conditions possible. Got home sometime after 9pm. My parents had been worried but not too worried. Wild night.

    1. Those drinks were a poor decision, but what they hey, it gave you a story to
      tell. 😀 Wild night for sure. You were lucky you weren’t tagged by a snow plow.

  41. Possible 2-4 down here by later Monday night into Tuesday morning and possible 1-2 for Boston area.

  42. All Mets have snow maps up with this changing forecast . Boston will be involved the way it looks now .

    1. I don’t think things have really changed all that much. But we’re in range of having maps up now.

      1. Tk ???? So is your thinking for Boston any different than last night. It shifted more Tk so I’m suspecting your answer will be yes .

        1. It’s the same as yesterday at this point. Nothing has shifted except the forecast on a couple computer models.

          1. Ok so your not buying the west?? I guess we wait for next run . You watch game brad got booed big time , he got a goal and gave a big wave to the crowd . He was a hated player in Tampa

            1. I can’t fully buy it yet because I have reason to believe there is a common misfire between some of the models. Next set of runs will help me resolve that a bit. I saw the game. He was loving the hate. He had a blast in that game.

  43. 0z NAM goes right back the other way. Exactly why we needed to wait. Some people jumped the gun. Agree with TK that it may have been a systemic error across the 18z guidance. Doesn’t mean no snow, but some of the 18z runs were unrealistic. I still like the 1-3 with isolated 4 idea that I was thinking earlier for Boston area and the South Shore. We’ll see what the rest of the 0z runs show.

    1. This run is missing that odd convection flare that was present only for the 18z runs of the few models that had the NW shift and heavier precipitation. That is what stood out to me.

  45. Not sure if this was mentioned here today. It is the 32nd anniversary of the Tragic Challenger disaster.

    I’m willing to bet many here recall where they were. Mac was home from work and in the kitchen and I turned the tv on to watch. It was one of those surreal moments when you look and know something is very wrong but don’t want to acknowledge the thought.

    1. I was attending morning class at Framingham State College (now University). Hard to believe it has been that long that I was in my college days.

      Thanks Vicki! 🙂

  46. Your Monday post is out very early! No real changes. Tweaked snow amounts a bit for tonight. The upcoming weather pattern is one that is about my favorite for winter. We’re going to get into a disturbance about every other day pattern for quite a while.

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