Saturday Forecast

96 Comments

9:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)
January’s final stretch is here – 5 days to go, and there will be several changes in the weather during this time. First, however, through mid morning watch for patches of black ice due to the formation of moisture on still below-freezing surfaces as milder air starts to arrive. This will vanish quickly later in the morning and we’ll have a mild, dry, and windy day with a strengthening southwesterly air flow. A cold front will cross the region Sunday with most of the rain shower activity in the morning and midday. Still watching for the formation of low pressure moving up along this boundary Monday and it still appears that the bulk of it will pass offshore late Monday, but not far enough to completely miss parts the region with a period of snow, as colder air will have moved in. The most likely area to see this is southeastern MA. An upper level disturbance may produce lingering snow showers Tuesday before high pressure moves in with a cold and more tranquil finish to the month on Wednesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, 10-20 MPH gusting 25-35 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers through early afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow mainly late and night mainly southeastern MA, mix most likely at the onset. Highs 33-39. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows from the lower to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the lower to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
A warm front arrives February 1 with some cloudiness and milder air. A cold front swings through at some point February 2 which will be an unsettle day. The questions are the timing of the front and whether or not there will be a wave of low pressure coming up along the front. This will determine precipitation type and amount. Early call is a mild start with rain showers ending as snow showers but cannot rule out a period of steadier snow. Mostly fair and colder weather February 3-5 except a weak disturbance may produce a few snow showers about February 4.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Looking for battle between cold air from Canada and milder air in the southeastern US likely resulting in some unsettled episodes of weather here along with variable temperatures.

96 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Thank you TK.

    This is a re-post.

    re: German ICON Model

    This may be more than anyone wants to see, but it explains how this
    model works rather nicely. Of course, the proof is in the verification of results, but
    it sure sounds like it should do the job.

    https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

    I have been occasionally watching it and comparing. TK compared it to the CMC.
    From What I have seen, I think it is a notch above the CMC. Will continue to monitor.

    1. Takes my breath away.

      I am a huge of both. Both individually sing a beautiful version of Elvis song, I can’t help falling in love. First and last song Mac and I danced to. I would love to see them perform together. I thought this might be it. But wow, OS, thank you

  6. As snowy as 2015 was, I can’t recall not one really notable snow event that stands out in any weather history. At least in 1978 besides the February blizzard there was the 21 inch event in January.

    1. Is part of the reason that we were better able to handle it. Smart governors learned to stop travel pre storm, etc. Even with 21 before 1978, we had more after this one. Although we were a mess for the month. Lots to be learned from this one also

  7. Many of you probably know this, but Sunday morning at 8:30AM, WBZ-TV will be doing a special look back at the ’78 Blizzard and a look ahead to the rest of this winter.

    I’ll be out with my mom so I’ll DVR it. 😀

  8. Re: what John Said about Ice and TK mentioned as well
    From NWS

    10am update…
    The influence of a slight uptick in sfc dwpts early this
    morning, under return flow did allow for the development of some
    morning black ice on area roadways thanks to condensation.
    Thankfully, temps have since quickly risen above freezing across
    much of the region with the nearly SKC conditions. This should
    allow road sfc temps to catch up.

  10. Oh No!! Armageddon is on the horizon. Look at this from the NWS….

    */ Overview…

    Progressive punch out of the NE Pacific downstream of a H5 blocking
    ridge over the N Pacific. But all that`s about to change going into
    February. Pacific jet pushing E, energy gathers S of the Aleutians.
    H5 ridging extends N/E into the Arctic in advance of the split-flow
    regime. Arctic air begins to dislodge from as far as Siberia, the
    Canadian gyre starting to wobble S. This as the MJO is forecast to
    remain strong through phase 5/6/7, captured by the S-split of the
    aforementioned N Pacific jet. The thermal / baroclinic transition
    zone edging ever so S/E and accompanying storm track, watching for
    that right moment when it taps into the S-stream and we potentially
    see greater storm development around the E-coast. Only certainty
    for now is anomalously cold, Arctic air will dig into the N CONUS
    into early February associated with a deeper H5 trof.

    1. It’s all legit. The major question is trough versus SE ridge. We can see systems that get strung out and are less intense but of longer duration sometimes in these situations.

      All I know is that I have 2 weeks off from work that will also happen to coincide with this pattern. 😉

  11. SREF still Bullish for Mon/Tues. Ensemble mean for Boston: 5.87 inches with a high
    of 12 inches and a low of 0.00 inch. 😀

    It didn’t get the memo.

  12. TK – Is the intense cold wave literally going to take hold from next weekend through the end of February?

    1. No. We’ll have a shot of cold, a moderation, then several shots of cold after that. I don’t think it goes all the way to the end of the month persistently. SE ridge will have a say, at least at times.

      This will also not be a repeat of 2015’s super deep trough that basically sat in place with a combination of sustained cold and storm after storm.

  15. Monday is still close enough to be interesting for me. A graze for now, but still can’t rule out something more.

    The early February system does not strike me as a likely snow producer at this point.

    1. The 2 models we were comparing, the CMC and the ICON apparently agree with you re: Mon/Tue. Perhaps OTS is not a lock after all?

      Definitely interesting.

      Wonder what King Euro has to say?

    2. re: Early Feb.

      Not sure what to make of it just yet. This far out, much divergence in solutions,
      but I would not rule it out at this point. Could end up being a decent
      over running snow event with a wave and not a full-fledged wound up system.

  17. Models will struggle for a bit on what wins out, the trough or the southeast ridge, I think its going to be the middle but due to us being in New England, watch for colder air in our area while areas like NYC points south have more moderate temperatures. I am not sure about the snow chances but what ever storms do form, I do not think they will be big back busters but multiple smaller ones going along frontal systems or the boundaries between the outer edge of the SE ridge and of course lower end of the troughs

      1. Based on those maps, I am wondering if the cold will come straight down from north to south for the Midwest first then east modifying for us.

  22. Back from the sunshine and lovely tradewinds on Oahu and getting caught up.

    First and foremost I hope both Vicki and TK are feeling much better. Vicki – word of caution – be overly careful with yourself as you recover. I’ve had pneumonia several times now and have ended up pushing myself a little too hard once I started feeling better, only to have a much stronger relapse and ending up in the hospital. So please coddle yourself well beyond when you start to feel better!

    Quick question for the group – has the general thinking changed regarding this being a front loaded Winter? That hope that it was and that we might be through the coldest and/or snowiest part of winter was what got me on the plane back. However goes one of my favorite sayings – it is what it is!

    1. Welcome back and thank you! I echo your advice about coddling.

      As far as the winter… Still feel we’ve seen more than half our snowfall and our coldest temps overall, at least the persistence of the cold.

      We have about 5 weeks left before a regime flip again and in that 5 week period we’ll see a couple to a few bouts of arctic air and at least a couple significant storm threats with several more minor events. Still don’t think it all adds up to equal or more than we’ve seen, so yes – we are in the middle of a winter that was front-loaded, and I still feel that March will provide a reprieve – a.k.a., early spring.

      2. I love this answer! 5 weeks is doable and I will count on your having a second existence as a groundhog if you don’t mind? We are in the middle of a move from Westford to Harvard and currently cooped up at my parents house (they are being incredible as always but I know for them having their soon to be 42 year old daughter back in her upstairs bedroom with husband and 7 year old son in tow is a lot!) so springtime can’t get here soon enough! Also we close on the new house in late March so a possible early spring sounds particularly wonderful this year!

        1. I love love Harvard. I’m so happy for you. Wishing you, your husband and your son many years of smiles and laughter.

          I don’t know if you saw the song I shared with you when you said you wanted a small town. It makes me think of towns like Harvard and Sutton, etc.

          https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fV9FENAVO7E

          1. I did miss it and am so glad you reposted this! That’s it exactly. And we are so lucky to be able to be in a state where you can still find lovely small towns like Sutton or Harvard without sacrificing the social benefits of living in a less rural area (read high education levels and liberal political leanings!). Although Concord was not tiny it really did have a “small town” feeling when I grew up there and we wanted to find that for Sammy. We couldn’t be more excited about the move!

            1. I absolutely agree. Belmont was the same as Concord…small and everyone knew everyone. It was warm and made me feel loved. We truly are lucky. This is an amazing state.

    2. Welcome back. And thank you. That is the hardest part but this is as sick as I have been in a long while, even with flu last year, and it scared me enough to behave. However, I am my own worst enemy and can make myself feel guilty so your words give me what I need to counter my guilt.

      How was Florida? Do you have a place there? And do you have a new house. here?

      1. Please do continue to rest – I know it’s hard and I tend to go stir crazy and/or feel guilty too. Took 3 hospital stays for it to stick in my stubborn head that there’s no need to be a hero! I think you may have my email or if not grab it from TK if you need a good scolding. FYI the last time I ended up having a relapse my pneumonia became resistant even to IV antibiotics and it got pretty scary. So take it from me and take it sloooowww.

        We own a coupld of timeshares – one at Disney at Aulani in Hawaii (in Ko Olina on Oahu) and one at Disney’s Vero beach. We try to alternate years between FL and HI and usually go in late Jan or early Feb. Always during playoff season so if we win it’s incredible but if we lose we are on vacation so it’s still incredible! (In 2012 for example I drowned my sorrows in a Mai Tai on the beach at sunset.) This year when we booked Aulani in February of last year I booked a cabana with TV the second to last Sunday in January in the hopes that we would be in the AFC game that Sunday – even though the NFL schedule had yet to be posted and mini camp had not yet begin. I think that may put me in the running as one of the many ultimate Pats fans – and certainly puts me in the hall of fame of type A personalities. 🙂

        1. Wow….that is amazing and yes the ultimate Pats fan. What fun that you have multiple places to chose from.

          You just scared me enough to behave. I will definitely email if I am tempted. I do not have your email, but know where to find TK 😉 Thank you. And welcome home.

          1. Also, I don’t know if you use FB. TK can give you my name if you are and want to send a friend request.

    2. Mr. Fisher and I are nearly in agreement. Won’t rule out a quick period of snow far southeast though.

  28. With the front moving so sluggishly and able to just barely clear the south coast, I am somewhat surprised that the Monday snow won’t be able to easily back in westward. It’s no wonder the models a couple days ago were briefly leaning in that direction.

    And Barry has nice snow potential for Friday as he did yesterday.

    1. Actually the front itself will clear the South Coast by a few hundred miles. It keeps moving through Monday afternoon before that low starts rippling along it.

      Not so sure about Friday yet. Just because the Euro has solid snow still leaves us far short of anything certain.

  30. Good morning.

    Just watched the BX Blizzard of 78 Special. It was good. I especially liked
    the interview Barry had with Bruce Schwoegler.

  31. This off shore system for tomorrow/tues is turning into a decent system
    with plenty of moisture. What a shame it has to pass off shore.

    Typical…One system passes to our West with warm and rain and the next
    passes off shore with Nothing. Friday’s event will probably go poof as well.
    Euro already backing off some and GFS has it not more than a frontal passage.

  33. The map showing the parts of Boston that would be under water now was chilling. The comment that we have the knowledge to talk and plan now is actually sad. Rather than do just that, we argue about whether it can happen, knowing full well that of course it can.

  34. For this upcoming week anyway, it’s nice to see the Monday-Tuesday storm impact potential backing off. It makes such a difference in viewing the upcoming week knowing the weather could be very impactful vs the weather offering a much smaller impact.

    For those who want more snow, I do sincerely hope there are more snow events coming. For me personally, if they can happen on a weekend or during February break, all the better.

    1. I always want more snow…even in the heart of summer….but I think your proposal is an excellent compromise 🙂

  35. Maybe I’m crazy, but I think 1-3”, maybe an isolated higher spot if there’s a good ocean effect band, is very much in play for the Boston metro and South Shore late tomorrow/tomorrow night. Obviously not going to be a big storm, but we know it’s often the smaller sneaky ones which cause the greatest impact depending on timing.

    We know that ocean effect is fickle as well; last time it didn’t produce at all, but this is a different setup. All in all, it’s still just enough to be interesting. Keeping one eye on it at least 🙂

      1. It’s a limiting factor, but I think the combination of the synoptic scale system and the otherwise marginally favorable ocean effect environment will partially overcome it.

  36. Tweet from meteorologist Steve DiMartino
    the period from February through early March will separate the model chaser and the meteorologist. The thermal gradients are going to be tight and intense. The precipitation shield, variable.

  38. Updating now…

    Dynamics are lacking for the Monday night / Tuesday threat.

    Late-week still in the jury room but I know 3 people flying either in or out of Logan so I know what they hope happens. 😉

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