Friday Forecast

71 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)
High pressure brings a tranquil winter’s day today then moves offshore and allows a warm-up for Saturday. After that, a cold front will move through Saturday night and Sunday with rain showers. This front will settle offshore Sunday night and low pressure will develop on it and pass southeast of New England Monday and Tuesday with some threat of precipitation at that time. It appears the bulk of the action may remain offshore but some upper level energy will hang back near the coast at least enough to produce snow showers. Will still have to watch the evolution of this as several scenarios are still possible, ranging from virtually no snow to a widespread episode of it. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 interior rural areas, 15-20 elsewhere except 20-25 South Coast. Wind light variable becoming light SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, 10-20 MPH gusting 25-35 MPH afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers through early afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow mainly afternoon and night. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows from the lower to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
Dry and cold January 31, milder February 1. Strong front brings rain showers February 2 which may end as mix/snow as it starts mild then turns colder. Fair, colder weekend of February 3-4.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Looking for battle between cold air from Canada and milder air in the southeastern US likely resulting in some unsettled episodes of weather here along with variable temperatures. Fair too early for any deterministic details.

71 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    For whatever reason, today felt colder than yesterday, but still a very nice
    Winter’s day.

    I anxiously await the 12Z runs.

    1. I think this morning was supposed to feel colder, but feel warmer than yesterday by mid-late afternoon … I hope.

  5. I can pretty much guarantee that ANY snow event during commemoration week will be automatically compared to the “Great Blizzard” by the tv newscasters and general public.

  7. Thank you, TK.

    The past few days – including today – are winter’s finest in my book. The sun is bright, the sky clear (also of pollutants, or so it seems on a winter’s day), it’s brisk but not too cold.

  8. I believe we have to watch for an intense system sometime during the day 10 to day 15 period.

    One ingredient the EURO is showing is a tremendous temperature gradient forming by days 9 and 10. There are actually -35C to -40C 850 mb temperature contours in south-central Canada. Not too far to the southeast, relatively speaking, is the SE ridge with quite mild 850 mb temps.

    Surely, it takes other factors to create an intense storm, but a huge temperature contrast is one of them and it looks like it will be developing in the long range.

  10. Hope no one went all in on OTS for Monday based on the 0z runs. 12z NAM/GFS are further west and look cold as well. Thermal profile trend has been colder. Watch out for a sneaky snowstorm somewhere in the region. Still a lot to work out though given the large swings in guidance. Just a chance of snow/mix for now.

  11. Go back to Ryan Hanrahan’s tweet I posted on previous blog.

    The inverted trough signal at D5 frequently precedes a jump to the west with the offshore low. Nice digging trough with QG forcing at the coast but the two systems are just a bit out of phase. We’ve seen this a couple times this winter.

  12. 12Z GFS has also trended West with the 2/2,2/3 system and has it moving up
    just to the West of us, with a brief change to snow at the end. Too bad as that
    system is juicy.

  13. JPDave I just noticed that. If that could move to the east and offshore we would be looking at a healthy snowfall. Plenty of time for that to change.

    2. I thought 7am outside working this morning was a better feel than 7am working outside yesterday morning . And that’s being in it for some time not walking to the bus , car, office etc. Just my take . Hope Monday keeps trending west . Feb 1st less than a week away winter is going fast I love it .

  16. I have this gut feeling February is going to be like 1978. I think a large storm is going to make history here again.

  17. Just don’t have it when I am away for a few days in Florida next month. I don’t want to miss the fun if a storm is happening. One of my weather predictions for 2018 was there would be a widespread double digit snowfall in February. Will see what happens.
    Tweet from Eric Fisher
    MJO swinging strongly into phases 7 and 8 during February. These phases historically help to enhance risk for east coast storms. Could be a busy month for sure.

    1. You guys beat me to it.

      Euro throws about 3 inches up to about Boston with 2-3 just N&W.
      There is room for a further shift. We shall see.

  21. In the twitter response section for what its worth Ed Vallee doesn’t think its done shifting west with regards to the latest EURO run.

  22. We know how these waves usually are. I could definitely see more west shifts. Will have to continue watching for what areas are favored for rain vs. snow. It’ll be a pretty fine line for the coastal plain. Too far east and there’s not enough QPF, too far west and warm air will be a factor.

  24. Tweet from Eric Fisher earlier:

    MJO swinging strongly into phases 7 and 8 during February. These phases historically help to enhance risk for east coast storms. Could be a busy month for sure.

  25. Window lights are still in windows. Not much sense tossing 47 batteries that have been used too much to be used again, so we are letting them run out.

    They went on five minutes ago…about. This is when it was dark early December. What a difference

  27. According to Eric, at least a few inches for eastern MA.

    Also, January 27 is the midpoint average for snowfall around here.

  28. Not weather related but
    For those who have gone to graduate school, or in education, can you tell me how your Q exams were like? Were they Oral, written or both. Did you have a choice? Where they general questions or nitpicky questions. I am just wondering as a major opportunity has come up with a possible PHD position.

    Now weather related, stuff, I do not trust any of the weather models, but I feel like February will be back to snow. I hope because I want this winter go out with a Bang as It could very well be my last winter in New England for a while.

    1. I know someone who went for a masters at Pine Manor and she had both written and oral exams. But the field of study was far different than yours would be so I’m not sure if it’s comparable. Her time there was very trying but she persisted and conquered it and I couldn’t be more proud of her for her accomplishments. She just recently graduated.

      I think you should shoot for the stars. It’s worth a try.

    1. It’s the German model. I don’t have a of experience with it but from talking to others and the limited looks I’ve had at it, it seems about as reliable as the Canadian.

    1. Correct. Some will say it started on January 24 as we had several inches of snow that day.

      Do you remember in early January 2015 someone said that watch the period January 24 to March 8? 😉

      1. I do. I have been reading a bit from then on the blog. I love that we can go back. You had a gazillion storm update posts with this one also. Wow.

      2. Yes, the 24th.

        We had a bday party for my youngest and she asked for the princess from Frozen, who showed up and after that, it never stopped snowing !!!!!

  32. Good morning. Yawn. I slept in catching up.

    Waiting on 12 Z NAM, but up to this point consensus (other than NAM)
    is OTS with a slight graze for Tues system, with a moderate to borderline Major
    snow event on Fri/Sat. (GFS the least. Euro Middle, CMC the Heaviest).

    Now we’ll see IF the 12Z runs agree.

    1. Sorry, with the discussion of the German ICON model, I see that it too wants
      to bring the Tues system closer to the coast. Hmmm Interesting.

  33. re: German ICON Model

    This may be more than anyone wants to see, but it explains how this
    model works rather nicely. Of course, the proof is in the verification of results, but
    it sure sounds like it should do the job.

    https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html

    I have been occasionally watching it and comparing. TK compared it to the CMC.
    From What I have seen, I think it is a notch above the CMC. Will continue to monitor.

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