Thursday Forecast

79 Comments

7:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 25-29)
High pressure brings dry and cold weather today and Friday, then moves offshore to allow a warm up Saturday before a front arrives with a rain shower threat Sunday. This front will be not far offshore when it slows down Monday and we’ll have to watch an area of low pressure forming on it. If it’s close enough, a mix/snow threat will result. Leaning toward it being more offshore for now but it’s several days away so confidence is not too high.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-17. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of mix/snow showers. Temperatures falling 40s to 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
Risk of snow showers January 30 as a disturbance is nearby and dry January 31 as high pressure moves in, with cold weather expected. Moderating February 1-2 with a risk of unsettled weather by February 2, then turning dry/colder end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Temperatures near to below normal with 1 or 2 mix/snow threats possible.

79 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Absolutely PERFECT Winter morning. Not too cold, but cold enough to know it
    is Winter. Bright blue skies with not all that much wind. Love it.

  4. GFS and CMC advertising some decent snow 1/30 and again around 2/2,2/3.
    Euro says, nah not so much, perhaps an inch or 2.

    Won’t post anything until the 12Z runs are out.

    I will say this:

    All 3 models, Euro, GFS and CMC hint at some sort of Norlun type set up
    Monday into Tuesday. We’ll have to monitor that situation.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Both the 6z GFS and 0z Euro miss with the followup wave Monday but are showing the quite the Norlun trough forming on Tuesday. Euro actually focuses it further west over western CT and the Hudson Valley with accumulations up to 6 inches there.

    1. CMC as well. Will be interesting to watch it play out and also when
      the mesoscale models come into range.

  7. Thanks, TK. Didn’t realize you weren’t feeling well ’til I looked at yesterday’s post. Hope you feel better soon!

    And Vicki, hope you are feeling better. And for anyone else who is not feeling well, feel better soon. Me and my husbanad are going through some frustrating medical issues right now. Not related to cold or flu (very nervous about that, ‘though) .

  8. Truck Day is February 5. Hopefully that will not be the only exciting vehicle event in Boston that week!

    Feel better, Vicki.

  9. Thanks TK. Very seasonable winter day out there. I hope all who are not feeling well get better soon! Such a bad cold/flu/etc. season.

    Continuing to watch the follow up wave Monday. However, if it tracks closer to us, I think we’ll have p-type issues. Cold air looks slow to drain in behind the front, and isn’t very cold. So that may be a lose-lose situation for snow in SNE. Will also watch for the Norlun setup Tuesday, but we all know those rarely turn out as impressive as models show them days in advance. Beyond then, as we enter February, the battle begins in earnest between intense Canadian cold and the SE Ridge. In line with my February forecast, I increasingly favor the SE Ridge to win out through ~2/10. Then we bring in the MJO and, if I’m right, set up a colder/stormier window for the middle of the month. Difficult forecast in that range though.

    1. re: Wave

      Understand precip type issues for sure.

      re: Norlun

      What impresses me is that the global models are picking up on this
      4 days in advance. The Norlun may not work out as advertised, but something
      usually happens. One of these days, one will over achieve.

      The GFS has been sniffing this out for days now, albeit a different alignment
      each run.

      I look forward to the 12Z runs and all subsequent runs with great interest.

      The Mesoscale models “Usually” handle Norluns better, so I can’t wait
      until they come into range.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    To all of you with medical issues, my thoughts are with you. As we age we get fewer days that we feel great. This is why I don’t take anything for granted.

  13. Huge win for medical device companies. The Medical Device tax as part of the Affordable Care Act pushed off another 2 years.

    1. Good. It is one of the fixes that could have been made if sides worked to make fixes. I believe Massachusetts fought against it.

    1. I just wish early daylight would start making a comeback as well. I don’t understand why sunrises lag so far behind.

    1. This may translate to a more progressive flow in the long term (NAO), the arctic air may have a harder time pushing south with a less amplified pattern (AO) and may have a harder time pushing into the eastern US, if the west coast ridge is not as amplified due to a less positive (PNA).

  17. WOW! Not that it is necessarily correct, but here is a HUM DINGER compliments
    of this morning’s GFS. 48 Hour Kuchera snow ending 18Z 2/3.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018012512&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=219

    Here’s a look at surface with precipitation:

    This is nothing but a qpf laden wave on the front:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018012512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018012512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png

  19. I don’t get snow maps on the EURO, but at hr 120, I can see about a 20 knot northeast wind at 850 mb over southeast New England. It looks plenty cold enough at 850 mb. I’m thinking perhaps a 1-3 or 2-4 inch contour on Jan 30th, (late next Monday into early Tuesday) may be what the EURO has ?????????

      1. Virtually no accumulation, else I’d post the map. 😀

        However, perhaps the MesoScale models will show more
        as they get in range.

  20. The EURO now keeps the 2/3 wave off shore and does NOT have the SNOW
    the GFS does. So here we go again. 😀

  21. Good day all!

    Despite about 1/2 hour of sleep all of last night, I’m feeling better – just tired. 😉 Heart has a 3rd irregular rhythm it goes into at times. It’s actually almost a hybrid of a-flutter & a-fib, and it’s the only one that keeps me awake. I can sleep through the other 2 if they are active. Anyway it went into that rhythm late at night and for whatever reason that particular one is the most stubborn and can take hours to respond to my special medication. It finally slowed at around 4:30AM and went somewhat normal after that, but the damage was done. Woke up after a short nap feeling crappy, but I have found that going about regular business and keeping active is more beneficial than sitting around, so I’ve been treating today normally and progressively improving. 🙂

    Hoping we don’t head back to bad heart habits. 😉

    Weather…
    No changes to the simple forecast I have up there. Jury is out on what happens early next week. I’m not feeling big storm at this point, but I’m not ruling anything out yet either. Just something to monitor. Just for the fun of it I’m going to say that the regional groundhogs will not be finding shadows other than ones cast by the tv camera lights next Friday morning. 😉

    5. Take care TK !

      Is that something that is unnerving to go through ?

      Glad to hear you have seen improvement throughout the day. Hoping you’ll see a break in episodes soon !

      1. The rhythm I was stuck in last night is the most unnerving of the 3. Ironically it’s a steady one, just contains powerful ventricular contractions at the end that make you feel like your heart is going to pop. It also results in chest pressure and some shortness of breath, although atrial fibrillation does that to me too along with a rapid, irregular beating of the ventricles because of the “atrial storm” ongoing. I just don’t really like the feeling of the “power beats” that take place in last night’s episode. To be honest, a-fib is easier to take, though no picnic either.

        1. Boy Tk this seems to be happening a lot now I hope it gets figured out . Do you have an implanted device

          1. I don’t. It’s not far enough along for that. We have many med options still to go. 🙂

            1. Hang in there. My wife & son both have long QT . My wife has an implantable device my son will at some point . Hang in there Tk .

  24. Regarding the AO/NAO/PNA … These were the very indices Barry Burbank and I were discussing during our chat at the SNE Weather Conference back in November regarding the upcoming winter forecast. We were in agreement they’d be a factor but hard to pin down. It’s not a surprise to me that guidance indicates these several different strengths and timings over just a couple runs.

    We will have arctic visits in February. I’m just not convinced it becomes “persistent” as Harvey, for one, indicated. I’m not picking on Harv, just noting that there have been some forecasts for it. I’m not convinced yet…

    1. Pete on his evening forecast just a few minutes ago hinted the cold would be persistent as well. NWS has the cold for the rest of the month once it arrives.

      Well, we will see one way or the other.

      1. I think we’ll look at about a 2 week period in which it will be below normal more often than above, but I don’t know if it’s going to sink below and stay there…

  25. TK feel better.
    Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan for early next week.
    The inverted trough signal at D5 frequently precedes a jump to the west with the offshore low. Nice digging trough with QG forcing at the coast but the two systems are just a bit out of phase. We’ve seen this a couple times this winter.

  26. Well, not entirely sure as it was to fast, but I believe I saw a Bald Eagle flying over the Marsh. White head, White Tail. Brown body. Very long wing span.

  28. I’m banking on the MJO to drive the February forecast. We’ve got the -AO supporting cold but the La Nina supporting a pushing back against it via the SE Ridge. I’m convinced 2/10-2/20 is our cold/snow window once the MJO reaches phases 8 and 1. We may get a taste of cold early in the month, but I think 2/1-2/10 averages above normal. Been watching the Euro/GFS/CMC ensembles. I buy the consensus idea of the SE Ridge dominating most of February’s first 10 days with the cold close by and perhaps making a quick visit a few days into the month. By day 15, on the GFS ensembles for instance, at a glance it doesn’t look cold/stormy, but I think it’s just a damped out mess. Ensemble members all over the place being blended together. That’s only just getting to around 2/10, which I think will be a transition window. I think we’ll see a higher amplitude pattern by mid-month.

  29. The Monday wave is looking like at least a decent sideswipe to me. Euro doesn’t have it, which is keeping a lot of people wary I think. Certainly precludes me from being all in on it. UKMET is west though, and I’ll be interested to see if the 0z Euro joins.

    As mentioned earlier, precip type will be a factor. Would favor rain at least at the coast, but maybe more snow not too far inland, if the QPF shield comes far enough west and the system is a little more organized, which I think it may be.

        1. Possibly, it could be a rain to snow situation for some areas. Again, a two-fold forecast problem between the thermal issues and how far west the low tracks.

      1. A possible opportunity risen. A professor of mine that I been working with for a while, had a connection with a professor down in the University of Florida. She is looking for a PHD student for Ecology and everything is paid for, tuition, fees, Healthcare, and Stipend. So even though its not the best of programs, she has a very good lab. Part of the fellowship is to understand the ecological effects of the altered flow of water in the Palo verde wetland, which if I can twist it, I can talk about the Mangrove and seagrass habitats as well, the habitats I find so fascinating, and need to be restored, if we want to protect our coastlines .

  31. Anyone have any experience with an Ambient weather web cam? Thinking of picking one up. It is wireless internet ready and able to interface with weather under ground. tx

  34. Good morning and for what it is worth, the Euro now keeps
    the mon/tues wave and norlun well off shore.
    Also the wave for 2/3 or so OFF-Shore.

    However, the Euro wants to cook substantial coastal for 2/5. Should be much better defined and far enough out on the 12Z runs. Now to have it come up the coast
    and not run out to sea.

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