Tuesday Forecast

349 Comments

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
A sliver of high pressure brings a decent day today and then a winter storm approaches rapidly Wednesday, impacting the region significantly by late-day and nighttime, diminishing in impact as it moves away Thursday morning. A shot of strong wind and heavy precipitation will occur, with a rain/snow line somewhere in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor or just east of it. This will result in a very sharp snowfall gradient making my snowfall forecast highly vulnerable in this area. Thunder may occur during the passage of the low pressure area, which is likely to track over or just east of Nantucket by early Thursday morning. A follow up upper level trough may bring some snow showers on Friday as it will be quite cold aloft. All of this should be offshore but still close enough for a few rain/snow showers and a gusty breeze Saturday.
TODAY: Decreasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind light NE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light snow/mix interior and mix/rain coast, becoming steadier and heavier by mid to late afternoon from southwest to northeast. Highs 35-43. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow and rain, heavy at times, with a rain/snow line in the vicinity of a line from near Gloucester MA to near Boston MA to near Providence RI which will oscillate. Chance of thunder. Snow accumulation 3-6 inches in the vicinity of the rain/snow line, dropping off rapidly from under 3 inches to little or nothing east of the rain/snow line, 6-12 inches west of the rain/snow line but areas of 12-18 inches favoring higher elevations west of I-495 and north of I-90. Lows 27-32 west of the rain/snow line, 33-38 east of the rain/snow line. Wind E to NE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, possibly to or exceeding 50 MPH coast, east of the rain/snow line, NE to N 10-25 mph with higher gusts west of the rain/snow line.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering light snow except mix/rain southeastern MA mainly Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Windy. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to upper 30s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain/snow showers. Breezy. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
Watching from late March 11 into March 13 for a potential storm of rain/mix/snow, but there is some chance this one may skirt the region or miss to the south. Another disturbance brings a risk of precipitation later March 14 or March 15.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
A couple weaker weather systems and an overall milder trend but some up/down temperatures as the ongoing blocking pattern weakens and tries to shift to a more progressive one.

349 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. TK when do you think we see flakes in our area? I assume it’s ok to go into work until at least lunch time?

      1. I’m seeing not exact but similar. Rain snow line makes a difference and deepest pocket north central is a bit different. But they have been fairly consistent with each other for most, if not all, storms

        1. Well, I was really referring to the I-95 corridor but even interior not that much different from station to station which is somewhat unusual.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK. Your forecast looks remarkably like Eric’s
    from last night. 😀

    Hope no one minds this repeat, but I wanted to make sure Kane sees this.
    OR anyone else who may be interested.

    The following is the response Regarding snow map discrepancies I received from Andrew Revering the host and CEO of Convective Development, my Euro Service.

    David,

    You cannot compare WeatherBell’s Kuchera or other snow maps such as an ‘Air Force’, “10:1′ or ’13:1′ map to ours for the reason you stated — it’s proprietary. Everything from our precipitation type identification to our ratio calculations. The maps just won’t match up… they are done in different ways. We do not use the snowfall algorithm directly from models for several reasons. They often include sleet in their snowfall totals due to their precipitation type identification not being great, and with different models want to be consistent with our methods. Therefore, we use our own precipitation type method which can identify rain, freezing rain, snow and mixed precipitation with a great deal of accuracy. The mixed precip type for example requires a reduction factor in the snow totals where other algorithms would probably use a ‘yes/no’ in that situation and blanket it with a specific ratio rather than reducing it and making a smoother gradient.

    Also the way we do it might simply think there will be something less than ‘all snow’ such as a mix, freezing rain or even all rain in fringe areas that differ from the raw model output or other sites. So our site might determine it as snow, while another has rain in fringe areas. Additionally we use a ‘modified’ Kuchera algorithm to identify snow ratios. Many sites and raw model output will use a static 10:1 or 13:1 ratio. By looking at the thermal profile at any given location at any given point in time, we can get a dynamic snow ratio that better fits the true atmosphere. Kuchera is great, but we have modified it slightly to fix some biases that we’ve noticed with that process.

    We also apply a ‘compaction’ factor that is rarely if ever considered. In certain situations the snow will compact or perhaps melt during the process of the storm — and we try to take this into consideration when applicable.

    I would encourage you to use all data you see (any site) to make your forecast, but take everything with a grain of salt. Over time you may learn to prefer one site’s methods over another, or better, find biases that allow you to trust one over another in certain situations.

    I would like to see the discrepancy you found between QPF maps. Can you send me a copy of theirs that you’re looking at so I can investigate?

    Pretty detailed explanation, if you ask me.

    I sent along the weatherbell snow map. I’ll share any response.

  6. Based on TK’s thoughts above, at least there is no more wiggle room for the rain/snow line to go any further west.

    1. Come to think of it, Dylan Dreyer on the Today Show did mention that if any shifts in the track, more likely be eastward.

  7. So not that much south shore ? Day 4 no power house is getting colder and colder .

    2. Let’s hope the wind stays in check. There are still a lot of trees around my house that I swear are conspiring to keep us in the cold and dark. Hope you get your power today SSK!

      1. Now, they probably are not in line at all. A Westward shift
        may be required pending results of the rest of the 12Z Suite.

  10. Early comparisons for the 12Z run indicate a slightly tighter to the coast track OR
    at least it is tighter at hour 20 compared to 6Z run at hour 26.

    1. That is 12Z NAM. I know what is in my mind (sometimes!), but not necessarily all here. 😀

  12. Yikes, coastal hugger. NAM track is right over the CC Canal. Basically no snow in Boston in that run.

    1. AGREE 100%. Just STOP the TEASE already.
      Just bring it West in the first place)!@#*&!*(@^#&*!^@&*#^!&*@^#&*^!*@&#^

      If we think the NAM is a torch, just wait for the GFS.

  15. As I have been saying, this is what happens when there is no cold high, just blocking alone doesn’t automatically mean “snow”. The previous storm was an example as well.

  16. I’m not sure why we are reacting in such a way to the NAM or letting it influence our meteorological logic ….

    Its snowfall performance on the last event was awful. In my opinion, its snowfall amounts and location, in similar storms, tends to be too inflated and too far northwest.

    In my opinion, bring that gradient further southeast and closer to the coast by about 30 miles and multiply the snowfall projections by .7 this go around.

    1. I disagree. I think the NAM has simply come around to most of the other
      models.

      I’d even wager that the Euro comes West and joins the others as well, even if not to as great an extent.

  18. If this comes any further west snowfall in my area will be cut. Right now in good shape for around 10 inches.

  19. Have a look at hr 36, which is, I believe 00Z tomorrow night or 8pm Wednesday evening.

    Huge vertical velocities at both 700mb and 850 mb overlapping very heavy precip centered over most of southern New England. 850 mb temp still below 0C.

    I believe there will be heavy snow at this point, even in Boston. Too much dynamics. I don’t necessarily believe the boundary layer will be torched by the ocean. Climatologically, the ocean offers its least amount of warmth to the boundary layer in March.

    If the tightness of the NAM were to verify and the 700 mb closed low were to come overhead Boston, then yes, the best snowfall amounts will be northwest of the track of the 700 mb feature.

    However, I think the dynamics even in the NAM scenario would win out in Boston for a while, particularly in the late afternoon thru mid evening time frame, say 5 to 10 pm. Then, under this scenario, rain would become involved for a while at the end.

    2. Tom, I hope you are correct. Nice analysis.

      Heaviest precip is 0Z tomorrow or 7PM Wed evening.
      925mb temps above freezing in Boston. I just don’t think it will happen.

      However, we have a few more runs to look at before we jump off of the cliff.

      But it isn’t looking good right now.

      1. I believe its why TK and to a greater extent, the NWS have snow projections for locations in their forecasts, that the NAM would show as nearly all rain. (For TK’s forecast above .. its Gloucester to Boston to Providence : 3 – 6 inches in the vicinity of the R/S line)

  21. In terms of snow ratios in Central MA, just northwest of Worcester-what are we looking at? Greater or lesser than 10:1?

  23. Jpdave I saw the euro explanation you posted. Very interesting thanks

    Another thing that worries me about the latest nam is dry slot problems towards the end. If you look at the QPF map. You will see eastern mass has less than before

        1. Yes thanks. Hard to do everything on Mobil. But yea this storm looks like a disappointment so far.

  25. Here is another thing may have to watch for SNE that will impact snowfall totals. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Morning update: more concerned with dry slot and mixing in Hartford area points SE. This will hold accumulations down some.

  26. It’s been spitting snow ever so lightly in northeast ma, I’m talking like a min a ture flake every few seconds, but it feels like snow out there….really enjoying the discussion this morning

  27. Interesting, the RDPS keeps in mainly snow in Boston or at least most of the neighborhoods with rain for a period downtown and airport. However, not much
    in the way of accumulation.

    Two periods of the rain threat for the city, 7PM to 10PM Wednesday evening:

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018030612/036/prateptype.us_ne.png

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018030612/039/prateptype.us_ne.png

    Kuchera Snow (still some snow falling at the end of the 48 hour run, but not a whole lot)

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018030612/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Also worth noting: The qpf on this run is way down. Not sure what’s up with that???

  28. I wonder if it has to do with that dry slot that Ryan Hanrahan’s was mentioning why the QPF is down.

    1. Thanks for providing this JPD. That double barreled high might as well be in the Arctic Circle itself. Move that 75-100 miles due south and the rain/snow line goes no further north than Nantcket. 🙂

  30. I have been saying for well over a month now the most we will get are broom brusher amounts of snow. When will talk believe me? lol

          1. Very true. And not for nothing, but the GFS was correct in the R/S line for our last storm while everyone kept saying it was too warm

  34. Definitely a gradual westward trend in the 0z and early 12z guidance. Rain/snow line very likely gets to 95, but still not thinking too much further. I like the 12z RGEM.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2018030612/rgem_asnow_neus_48.png

    As usual, NYC is probably the trickiest forecast spot for this storm. I could make a decent argument for 18″ there and also for only 2-4″. I think it ends up closer to the former than the latter.

  35. Boston itself is a tough forecast for this one too. It’s going to be a very fine line between 0-2″ and 6″+.

    1. I could come down to the airport getting 0-2 and the Western and Soutwestern
      neighborhoods getting the 6 or 6+ or anything in between.

  37. I know tomorrow’s evening commute will be rough but will the Thursday morning commute be impacted too??

  38. FWIW Ch 7 had the rain/ice/snow line headed on in toward Sutton briefly. That was on the video and not a static map. It was the only one I saw do that.

    Also FWIW…..not that we lose power here, but since it is going to be heavy show, I have several dozen bags of water freezing on the deck to line a few coolers so I do not lose food. As it is, we have natural refrigeration surrounding us, but I like to pack the freezer even when I can put refrigerated food outside.

    This alone will jinx the chances of large accumulations and favor Dr S’s broom prediction 😉

  39. Thank you, TK.

    As I said before I’m not seeing this is as a snowstorm at or near the coast. in fact, I’m not seeing anything in our immediate future that resembles a snowstorm. Cold rain with some wet snow flakes. Sure. But, in my book that doesn’t even count as a winter storm. It’s just a dreary spring storm. West of 495 and well north of 90 perhaps they will get cement-laden snowstorm out of this. Surely the hills will and ski areas, too, as well as parts of CNE and NNE. I do think, however, that most of SNE will miss out. Similar story next week. I sound like a broken record (that’s probably because I still play vinyl records on my 1976 turntable), but there isn’t a sufficient supply of cold air in our coastal vicinity to make this storm turn white.

  40. Am I correct that kids and teachers on this blog are all back in school? I am impressed if that is the case.

    2. My boys are in school. Lots of angry parents on Facebook that thought the kids should stay until every single person has power and each twig was picked up. 🙂

      1. I heard on tv that some schools in Braintree are still closed due to damage. Not sure as to how many.

  41. JP Dave, I don’t know nearly as much as you do about weather, but I do not see the High pressure area which you referred to as a `cold’ area of high pressure. Cool, perhaps. But not cold. In fact, you really have to go very far north to find Arctic air. Strange this time of year, but alas it’s what we’re dealing with during this otherwise favorable period for snow (eg, blocking). The lack of cold is a major problem for a storm like this at or near the coast. It may indeed be cold enough aloft from the storm and dynamic cooling, but surface temps and temps between the surface and, say, 2500 feet, will be too warm at or near the coast to support accumulating snows. I don’t think Boston gets below 34F tomorrow night. This doesn’t mean we won’t see any flakes or a gloppy mix of an inch or 2 in Boston Thursday morning (likely to melt by mid to late morning).

    1. I never said it was cold. My exact words:
      We actually do have a high to our North, however, it is not the strongest or coldest high in the world and it is perhaps a bit too far North, but it is there.

      It is clearly there, just wish it were a true Arctic high, which clearly it is not.
      But it is there.

  43. If the westward trend holds you could conceivably have all of these warnings at the same time for various locations of SNE:

    Winter Storm Warning
    Blizzard Warning
    Winter Weather Advisory
    Flash Flood Warning
    Coastal Flood Warning
    High Wind Advisory/Warning

    Did I miss anything? 😉

  45. I for one am rooting for a rainer with some wet flakes in boston. Wont be as bad getting to work.
    I dread having to shovel a foot of slop out my way.
    Why most of you like this shyte is beyond me. Specially in March.
    YUCK!!
    I’m in Camp Joshua 😉

      1. FWIW, My wife and her whole family on both sides are native New Englanders. And most of them hate snow and winter too, including my wife and her sister.
        I don’t know many people who do, native or not. Has squat to do with it.
        I think snow lovers are drawn to a weather blog. New England doesn’t do major long term heat, t-storms, severe, etc. But it does do snow. So weather nuts tend to gravitate to snow, I suppose.

        SSK hates winter and snow and my guess is he was born and raised here.

        Just sayin’

        1. OK, I’ll give you that.
          I guess it depends upon ones make up.
          Some like it hot and some don’t.

          1. Me – I just like every day I am on this earth. However, I find all weather events fascinating…..Blackstone, that is what I believes draws folks to a weather blog. It makes absolute sense.

            1. Adding, that it does confuse me as to why folks who do not like weather are drawn to a weather blog.

    2. I have a feeling – based on absolutely NOTHING – that we might top 5-6 inches here. But…..We have a snow blower for sale 😉

      My SIL for whatever reason prefers to shovel. I’d say it takes the place of his daily workout, but he works out right after shoveling. I actually miss the days when I could shovel. I stubbornly tried a couple of winters ago and messed up my shoulder again. Mostly, I miss the days when Mac would work on starting the mid-1960s Ariens my brother gave us while I managed to shovel everything. There is a whole lot of message in that last sentence.

    3. What I’ve always wondered is : what is the emotional attachment to snow about? There doesn’t seem to be any other weather phenomena that gets people so cranked up. Is this just a New England thing?

      1. I dunno, All I can tell you is that I have loved snow since I was
        3 years old. I can’t shake it nearly 70 years later. 😀 😀

        1. But JPD – you also love all weather events or basically weather as a whole….unless I am missing something that is.

      2. See my reply above. Plenty of natives don’t like it.
        I think its some sort of neuroses myself 🙂

        1. It depends on where you live and if your a weather junky. I know plenty of people in Texas and Oklahoma that like severe weather as much as JPDave likes snow. If JpDave was from and lived in tornado ally, I’m sure he would hang on every model run in the spring for CAPE, helicity, dry lines, etc.

      3. For me, snow is very pretty falling and covering the ground thereafter. Of course when it is actually falling, I prefer just looking out the window. 🙂

      4. For me…it’s just the work involved. Rain comes and goes and rarely closes schools or makes travel that difficult. It you both work and have kids in school, snow sucks ha. I was like JP when I was younger, but now I could live without it. However, I live here and that’s just how it is…

        1. I have always worked and had kids in school for a couple of decades. I always loved having them home….still enjoy the grandkids being home. My kids are the same. They are not, however, huge fans of snow and they are new england born and bred.

      5. Thunderstorms, hurricanes, absolutely any weather event fascinates the true weather lovers here. It sure does me. We simply have more snow so I suspect folks who don’t like snow think it is more of a draw.

        1. Everything covered in a white blanket, being in the woods hearing the snow fall, sledding, making snowmen and woman, no school, making some coin shoveling, hot chocolate, skid hopping, making forts and tunnels, snow ball fights, jumping into snow drifts, skiing, snowboarding, and having a ton of fun!

      6. For me snow covers the brown disgusting ground. I also need it for my favorite sport skiing. The man made stuff is better than 10 years ago but nothing beats that natural powder. Also the kid in me comes out

  48. The noontime mets have lowered snow totals considerably at the coast.

    1-2 inches for Boston (and that may end up being too high) 🙁

  49. I just look at it as a PITA to deal with. I have a bad back and it kills me to clean it up.
    And, i have a bad case of claustrophobia. Something about all that white, and piles on street corners, driveways, and parking lots gives me the willies. The trees around here are bad enough. Even after 25 years living here, it makes me feel boxed in with all these damn trees.
    Give me flat plains where I can see for 30 miles 360 degrees any day.
    I have a piece of land back home in Beckham county that sits on the highest hill in the county. I can get up on that hill and see lights from a couple towns over 50 miles away. One is in Texas.

    1. Interesting ideas about being enclosed or out in the open. I grew up in upstate NY surrounded by trees and hills. There were very few places with a view. Then I lived in southern CA for some time. I found being out in the open unnerving – like I was a tortoise stuck on my back.

      I net my wife in CA and we now live in an area very similar to where I grew up. I am very comfortable, but my wife sometimes feels the claustrophobia that you describe.

      I guess it depends on whether you prefer to see your predators at a long distance or hide from them.

        1. My biggest laugh of the day.

          I tend to feel claustrophobic in urban areas. Out this way there are so many open fields and water areas that I find it comforting. Malls make me squirm. Too many people and too closed an area.

  50. Catching up…

    * Snow obsession debate. Some people.like it. Some don’t. Some people like ice cream. Some don’t. The debate is worthless, but have it if you must.
    * Yes it is a cold high, just not an arctic one.
    * Philip: yes it can shift west or east, not just east.
    * WeatherWiz: You’re good to travel thru mid afternoon Wed.

    2. Thanks man…appreciate it. VIPs in tomorrow so I “have” to be in the office for at least a while.

    3. It is a cold high that is not nearly far enough south.

      Yes, obviously it can track west as well..and it certainly has.

  52. 12z Euro looks beautiful for most if you like snow.

    Storm track remains well offshore, near the benchmark and it is cold. Rain/snow line does not make it past a BOS-PVD line at its northernmost extent.

    3. This the 12z Euro snowmap from my Eurowx.com service:

      https://s14.postimg.org/ddj7lrnox/Capture.jpg

      I think these calculated totals are too low. I don’t see how many of these areas that are receiving all snow are only going to end up with 3-6″. Maybe right along the R/S line but not further inland. Something seems screwy with the algorithm.

      1. that algorithm is very messed up, looking at the temperature profiles and the amount of liquid in the storm and the amount of that liquid in the form of snow, no way.

  53. There been two models that been constant. the EURO and the GFS. I choose to believe the EURO more than the GFS as it has many issues with it. Nam is having trouble with placement like someone alluded to up above, I think we will see future runs go back towards the euro as well as many of the short range models.

    Not changing my snow map, maybe this evening I will but for now I am rather confident in my prediction. I am going with consistency and also looking at the two features current locations compared to the models placement 😉
    https://merrimackvalleyweather.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/untitled11.png

    1. GFS got last storm right. Not saying it will be right with this one, but the EURO along with the NAM more so, was still trying to build snowmen in SE MA even during the event.

      1. The GFS also had an all-rain event up into southern NH less than 24 hours out for that Feb 17 overnight storm that dropped widespread 6″ right down to the South Coast.

        Its 925mb temps are broken. Pay attention to the track and QPF on the GFS runs not where it is showing the R/S line

        1. How come all of a sudden they’re broken? Did something change? It’s the same GFS right?

          1. no its not, they forced an update before the winter started because of budget cuts put on by the administration.

          2. No, it has had this problem for some time. Warm bias. I believe since the last upgrade.

            It did not get the last storm right either. It had it raining out to Albany and southern VT and they ended up with a foot of snow.

          3. That all said, if the track of the 12z GFS over RI verified, eastern MA and RI are going to rain regardless!

  54. The dry slot maybe something we got to watch. Ryan Hanrahan was mentioning on twitter earlier its a possibility Hartford area south and east.

  55. To add to what Mark posted (sorry there will be a repeat of Euro Snow Map).

    Euro snow Plus the closest Rain gets to Boston according to this run.

    https://imgur.com/a/aY9Yx

    Now Matt says our Euro service Snow map is all messed up.
    Well perhaps, but please read very carefully the response I received from my Euro
    Service regarding their snow algorithm. I think in this case, it reflects the boundary layer and even if it remains all snow, the ratio will be extremely low. It also
    includes any mix in there , if any.

    2. I think its right on point actually. Its in line with everything except for GFS and NAM

  57. Most models now consistent on the most QPF being in eastern MA, coastal NH, and downeast ME. I wouldn’t worry about dry slotting except maybe for extreme southeastern CT and RI

  58. If I could get in the 6-10 inch range I will take it.
    Friday was so painful being just miles away from accumulating snow. Hoping I don’t get skunked this time.

    2. Good luck on that Jimmy! Here in Boston it now appears we will get skunked and then some. Pretty much deja vu with more rain, floods and power outages and very little snow, if any. Hopefully it will be more progressive for those same areas.

  59. Continues to spit fine grain snow here and there up on the north shore…temp has not crossed 36…..I feel the snow coming, I just feel it….again, love the analysis going on with this storm

  60. Just doble checked the Ukmet. 850 mb temps below freezing the whole way.
    Again, any issues will be with the lower levels just like last storm.
    Let us hope Dynamic cooling wins out this time. Of course you snow haters
    can ignore this post. 😀

  61. I gotta laugh at the NWS. Im still under a winter storm warning for 12-15″ of snow. And now I got an alert for a flood watch during the same period for 1-2″ of RAIN. Well NWS, which is it??? Extremely confusing to the average person.

  62. An update in case anyone is keeping track with the 12z runs from Mike B. on twitter
    12z UKMET RGEM and HRDPS all took a step colder and easterly. Still a large split in models that will make it or break it for areas along the coast.

      1. the gfs i bet there is some brotherly love going on there, Nam and GFS vs everyone else lol Nam had to back up big brother lol.

  63. 12z GFS and 12z Euro are well south with the Monday storm threat. And not much cooking on the models beyond that either.

    1. 50 and 60s cape and islands
      40s and 50s coastal areas
      30s and 40s interior lococations
      for gusts.
      sustained winds
      40s outer cape
      30s coastal areas
      20 to 30 eastern areas and higher terrain.

      not that big of a wind storm but with snow and weaken trees from the previous storm won’t take much to cause power outages.

  66. Great discussion here today. This place is a hidden gem 🙂

    We’re looking at a rapidly developing system tomorrow. Expect some surprises, and also expect considerable local variation in totals even in areas where it remains all snow. There will be regions of enhanced banding and of subsidence, as usual in major storms. My main ideas continue to be a rain/snow line fairly close to I95, and also the potential for a jackpot zone outside of NYC and in southwest CT. 12z HRDPS has me on edge for that, because I think it’s very possible. For most places more than 10-20 miles outside of I95, 8-14″ would be my range. Totals over 14″ will be the minority, but there should be some. There will be a very sharp gradient line somewhere near or just outside the 95 belt.

  67. Using my proprietary method of using the SREF to predict the NAM… do not be surprised if the 18z NAM is a very warm/west run 😉

  68. I hope I that jackpot zone you mentioned in southwestern CT shift a little bit further north and I get into it.

  70. It will be interesting if Boston gets even advisory snowfall. Is there a realistic chance of a last minute shift east or does the westward shift only continue from here?

    1. Philip, if pretty much any of the model runs but the NAM or GFS verify, Boston will receive at least an advisory level snowfall.

  72. Northwest Hills do get on that run interior parts of Fairfield New Haven counties as well as Litchfield County.

  73. I would like to recognize the commenters today for debating weather and staying civil. That is how it’s done. Thank you.

    Taking mom for a routine medical procedure. Don’t worry nothing wrong! So I’ll be sporadic for a while then re-evaluating things when I return…

    IN THE MEAN TIME… Here is a special blog update from Mr. SAK to share with you all. 🙂

    https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2018/03/06/the-lion-roars-again/

    1. Thanks! Looks like that puts me in the 2-4″ zone IF I am reading it correctly. Some of those maps are tough to see.

      1. I think at the moment that’s a fair assessment. I have my zones set up a bit different but his covers it too.

        I’m going to update everything when I get back.

    2. Thank you..I enjoyed the discussion. Gives us a chance to learn more about each other. I especially liked SClarke netting his wife 😉 😉 😉

  75. On a completely unrelated note.

    NFL fans:

    Ed Hoculi retired…….to be replaced as a white hat by….wait for it..

    his son, Shawn Hocuili. Currently an NFL back judge.

    Can we say quid pro quo? 🙂

      1. I’m concerned about you guys within 10-20 miles of the coast. Inland from there should be ok.

    1. I’m about ready. What I would like is some light spring weather with a little bit of a surprise snowfall in April. 🙂

    1. Thanks again Dr. S! 🙂

      Note that Ch. 7 has ZERO snow for Boston. Sadly that could very well be the most accurate map of them all.

  88. NWS Albany calling for another 24″ of snow in the hilltowns of southwest Albany County, Schoharie County and the Catskills. These are the same areas that received THREE FEET of new snow from the Friday storm.

    Two straight storms jackpotting in the same area. Epic five foot snow totals in five days! Will be well into April before all that melts.

    1. And Boston’s snow season may very well be over. This blocking pattern so far has been very disappointing. Only 0.6″ since the patten began.

      Total to date = 35.9″

    1. That occluded low over the Midwest has been amazing to watch on visible satellite today.

  92. Something else I’ve been thinking… we’re not at all out of the woods on a storm threat next week. Latest models are not always the greatest models. They’re very much struggling to resolve shortwaves, which should be expected this far out. Not promising anything of course, but know that the potential is not off the table just because none of the models show a storm anymore. Mixed signals beyond then. The blocking pattern will break down, and we’ll go warmer than normal at least for a few days the week of 3/18, but it’s a little muddled on how much staying power the warmth will have.

    1. NWS Boston and Upton both left the chance of precip in the forecast for early next week. They mentioned in their AFD’s that a few ensemble members were still north and they had low confidence on the suppressed solution.

  93. I’m going with BZ map and 5 inches give or take .25 in Sutton and that is, as always, based on absolutely nothing

    1. Well the Sutton amount is based on nothing. Being a fan of Eric, BZ preference is a good bet…..not to mention I know a little birdie also favors it 😉

  95. NWS Burlington discounting the colder/southeast Euro solution in their afternoon forecast discussion.

    1. Agree. Some weird dynamic cooling would have to take place. Everything looks warm. Of course by morning somehow, the storm will take a sharp turn south and east.

    2. Well, all I know is it was in the 60’s last week the day before the storm with high dewpoint. It’s 30 at my house right now, clear and with a DP of 20. There’s plenty of hope.

  98. For what it is worth…..snow is the least of this state’s problems. The tide is already above where it should be. I’m seeing photos of it coming over the walls at Humarock and other locations and now with reported dead fish. So the winds may be less; but with so many houses with gaping holes, 40-50 mph wind driven rain into those holes is little consolation.

    My heart aches when I see the photos. Yet everywhere I hear the folks reaching out to each other to get information to those who desperately want to see their property or house those who have no home or no power. It is some of the worst of nature and easily the best of humanity

    1. Indeed, these storms are bad news for some areas and many people. Losing power for days and in some cases property and possessions is really hard.

  99. Half day in Sutton tomorrow. Scheduled half day thurs but will see. No school Friday ..scheduled

  100. Don’t see how even a `colder’ solution – storm moves eastward – provides much if any snow to the coastal plain. And, I think that coastal plain goes at least to I-95. Sure, some glop will accumulate briefly in spots but I just don’t see this as a snow-maker for Boston and vicinity. This said, from Framingham to Worcester I think there could be as much as 6 inches, and west and north of Worcester possibly a foot. And, as Mark mentioned the jackpot area is in Eastern NY State where as much as 18 inches of heavy (water-logged) snow could accumulate. It won’t be a `pretty’ snow and it won’t stick around for long, especially in places that only see up to 6 inches. Could all be long gone by Saturday. Snow has a way of melting very fast in March, even when the temps are seasonable (low 40s).

  101. The only real adjustment I’m making right now is to push my accumulation areas westward about 15 miles or so for the lower ranges, and leave the heavier area in place, effectively tightening the gradient.

    3. TK, what is your thought for north central/northeast CT? Do you agree with Ryan’s snowmap above?

        1. thanks, I’ve been telling people who are asking here at work 6-10″ so that’s good I guess.

    4. So three inches in Sutton…..well darn I was wrong. Except when I prepared for power outage from heavy snow, you know I shifted the entire system away 😉

    1. Considering these are 10:1 ratios and need to be bumped down in areas closer to the rain/snow line, not out of the question.

      Notice the tremendous cutoff from double digit snows to virtually nothing over about 10-15 miles.

  104. The cold air needed for wet snow can be manufactured by the storm’s dynamics in combination with heavy precip. To an extent, that will bring the R/S closer to the coast than perhaps indicated by some models.

    1. Yes, also at 850 and 700.

      I believe the NAM was too far northwest with the monster storm a few days ago, all the models were and in the last 12-18 hrs, they all slightly adjusted southward. Same here, I believe. Another slight southeastward adjustment is needed, I believe.

          1. Can also see on the radar simulations the precip in northern Maine not making any progress northward at hrs 33 thru 39. Another suggestion of some blocking northeast of New England.

                1. I apologize, I don’t know how to copy off of instant weather maps. What’s your general location ?

              2. Agreed ….. ultimately, I think Boston can end up halfway between this morning’s 8 inch projection and this evening’s 2 inch projection.

                The tough part of a further southeast track is that it doesn’t allow SE mass to get into a lighter wind flow while the low passes overhead. Instead, we remain longer in the wind, while the lighter wind lull ends up further south and east.

                1. Southeast mass is gonna get that dry slot. I don’t see anyway around that almost no matter what

    1. Due to what I wrote above, I believe the 00z runs of the gfs and euro will similarly be a bit colder and then the 12z run suite will be a bit further south and east, and ultimately, the R/S will end up about where it was projected this morning.

      1. Very possible. I don’t think the Euro can get much colder/more southeast than it already is though. Probably will stay the course at 0z.

  108. I don’t know about right along the coast, but I think there’s real potential for this to remain all or mostly snow right up to and including I95. Will definitely be a wetter snow in those areas, but for example, where NWS has Foxboro at 3″, I could see them with 6-8″. This still won’t be a case where you have to be “close enough to smell the rain to get the heaviest snow.” Ratios west of that rain/snow line will be poor, and you’ll have to go further inland for the double digit totals. But the 0z NAM looks very good to me.

    1. Connecticut river valley sucks doesn’t it. I did undergrad out in springfield and drove back home to Worcester for many storms. That shadow is just always there.

      1. Yes, it’s bad in storms like this, especially in the Pioneer Valley. I typically do much better in the hills of Tolland County vs. BDL but most of CT appears to be in a bit of QPF hole with this storm for some reason. The QPF maxes out well SW and NE of us. Still, 1.1-1.2″ QPF isn’t too shabby and should give me a shot at double digit totals.

    2. Boston right on the cutoff. From literally 1″ just south of the City to 8″ just to the north.

  110. Perhaps it’s because the storm is in the short term and the NAM has a new panel every 1 hr up to hr 36, but once that low gets to NJ, it seems like it crawls all the way to Cape Cod and then slows even further.

  111. The center of the 700mb low is projected in the 00z NAM to track over Cape Cod.

    How far is Boston northwest of Cape Cod …. 50 to 60 miles ???

    1. Yes, the center of the low looks to stay at least 50 mi south and then east of Boston at all times.

      1. Interesting. I haven’t checked the model temps at each of those levels….is it consistent with what it is saying is required for heavy snow?

        1. The one that I really noticed was the 850mb and needing -5C, but that -2 to -8C can be ok, and then I looked at the NAM 850 temps and Boston was -2c and then the -4C isotherm was just northwest, etc. this was tomorrow evening.

  115. Watching Pete on Facebook live. He just ramped up Boston to 3-6 and is moving the snow line east. He has North Reading, where I live, in 3-6 and says it will be closer to the top of the range. Interesting.

    1. JPD posted at 5ish tonight. May be out with Mrs OS. You are really kind to worry. I also hope everything is ok

        1. JPD doesn’t usually post much evenings. He should be back to posting first thing tomorrow. He’s usually one of the first posters, even when no real weather is going on.

  119. A habitat that I have done research on, and feel is disrespected. If you like your seafood you like seagrass and want it protected you want the seashore to be protected, well, something that helped with coastal erosion was the once vast seagrasses that were found off our coasts, current seagrass cover is no where near what it use to be. For those that have me on facebook, you can read the angry paragraph on there. P.S for around two weeks while I was down on Nantucket I experienced a Blue green cynobacteria called Lynbgia. This correlated with a few days before 4th of july weekend to a week after. There was a storm just before that created runoff, Lyngbia forms mats on the seagrass choking and with storm activity ripping the seagrass from the bed. the Lyngbia it self was a blackish color, that was smelly, slimy, skin itchy, seagrass killer that made the water that was very clear for new england, a blackish green color. Before it came, I could not step in the seagrass without stepping on scallops. When it came, Scallops went bye bye. Even when it cleared out the scallops really did not come back till August but not the way it was in June. There was no fish in the area, many of my traps came up empty during this time. The importance of this is real. I am not trying to be combative, I am trying to explain why this is wrong. Have a gander and remember the yummy scallops need seagrass.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/05/the-chesapeakes-secret-garden-is-thriving-again-but-trump-could-end-that/?utm_term=.0155a03cb924

  122. Ryan Hanrahan‏Verified account @ryanhanrahan · 10m10 minutes ago
    Last minute shift SE means snow totals are going up. More at 11. #nbcct

  128. Hmmm….0z GFS now stronger and further north with the Monday coastal storm as well. Still a whiff but closer. Clocks Virginia with some heavy snow.

  129. “when there’s no arctic air in March, we rain in Boston – I’ve gotten burned on that enough” – Pete Bouchard

      1. I think that was exactly his point…you don’t need pure arctic air in March to get snow in Boston. It just needs to be “cold enough”. If you have the dynamics and precip. intensity, it will get the job done.

    1. 00Z Canadian looks good – track is pretty much identical to the GFS and NAM now. All models in good agreement on track now.

    1. Eric and Pete did mention that could occur.

      I hate summertime thunder but for some reason, I do like thundersnow. 🙂

    1. I heard it here just last Christmas Day, and I believe one other time this winter.

      Are you saying that you’ve never experienced it in your life Jimmy?

      1. Philip I have never experienced it. I have seen a lot of weather including living through a tornado in July of 1989 but thunder snow is something I never experienced. Last year when we had the February storm we had lot of lightning strikes in CT and some were in towns close to me. The first time I remember seeing thundersnow on tv was when Jim Cantore in Worcester in Dec 96.

        1. You are considerably younger than I, but I am surprised that you’ve never experienced it at least once. Anyway, you should enjoy tomorrow. Hopefully maybe here in Boston for me as well for the third time this winter assuming the eastward trend continues. 🙂

  133. Ryan Hanrahan just posted this on the AmericanWx forum:

    I’m pretty bullish. I definitely feel like this will be a fun storm around here and could overperform.

    – earlier issues I had with dry slotting and snow growth issues seem gone with a slight tick SE with mid level lows and more importantly more compact low level lows.

    – max strength of mid level lows just SE of MTP maximizes frontogenesis up here.

    – fairly long duration MAUL/instability.

    – potential for pivot of snow band with dry slot punched off toward GON.

    – extreme omega modeled and punching through DGZ.

    we snow. Could easily become a 12-18 kinda deal locally and maybe a swath of higher impact power outage snow.

  134. The storm we had last February I remember there were a lot of lightning strikes with that storm in CT. Will see if that is the case with this one.

  136. During the March 1888 blizzard, Boston flipped back & forth between rain/snow and eventually received a foot while NYC was all snow and received 20+ inches…maybe 25?

    I have always wondered how sometimes NYC gets all snow while Boston 200+ miles to the north, rains. The setup makes no sense to me but yet it can and does happen.

  137. February 2010 there was a coastal storm and some called it snowicane. Boston had heavy rain with that storm. NYC was getting accumulated snow. I remember the snow area was right up to the western boarder of CT where all you had to was drive across the boarder into NY and you saw snow. It was a rain event for CT.

  138. 0z Euro holds serve. Nice offshore track and continued cold. Models all in general agreement now on track.

    Weatherbell 10:1 Snow map:

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2018_03/ECMWF_0z_03_07_18_run_snow_total.jpg.c3591bab8b870a5f8f38cae3e81e08c2.jpg

    Farthest advance of 925mb 0C line only makes it to Fall River – Plymouth

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=https://weather.us/images/data/cache/model/download_model-en-087-0_modez_2018030700_30_519_459.png&key=b59f31f12770cdbad6d1892925a217ffb70f5178136d54c60fe6aef674f17a80

  139. New post!

    After waffling around a little bit last evening, I have essentially made no changes to the previous blog. Go figure.

Comments are closed.