Wednesday Forecast

730 Comments

3:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)
Some preliminary moisture ahead of the winter storm will bring areas of light snow and some coastal rain during this morning and the first half of the afternoon, with some of this caused by ocean moisture and some of it caused by an area moving in from the west ahead of the main storm. The window of time for the main storm impact, taking place while low pressure strengthens and wobbles north and east off the New England South Coast, will be from mid to late afternoon through about midnight or shortly thereafter. During this time, the heaviest precipitation will occur, with the all-important rain/snow line being a huge determining factor in snow amounts in the vicinity of the I-95 corridor. So even the snowfall call on this blog, the day of the storm, has some uncertainty and will display a large gradient near this rain/snow line. With more confidence I can say that little snowfall will occur further to the southeast and the heaviest amounts will be west of the I-95 belt. During the peak hours of the storm the wind gusts from the northeast may reach 40-60 MPH along the coast, and though the tides are not astronomically nearly as high as during last week’s major storm, there can still be moderate flooding in some locations. Wind damage is also possible, especially with some weakened structures and trees from the major storm. In addition, inland heavy/wet snow will increase the potential for tree damage and power outages there. Thunder may even occur in areas of heaviest precipitation. During the early hours of Thursday, there will be a taper-down of precipitation from south to north, but some back-lash light snow will occur into Thursday morning behind the departing system. An upper level low pressure area may bring a few snow showers to the region Friday which may linger into Saturday as the upper low is slow to move away on Saturday. By Sunday, weak high pressure means a quieter weather day. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Spotty light snow/mix interior and mix/rain coast, becoming steadier and heavier by mid to late afternoon from southwest to northeast. Highs 35-43. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Overcast with snow and rain, heavy at times, with a rain/snow line in the vicinity of a line from near Gloucester MA to near Boston MA to near Providence RI which will oscillate in the vicinity of the I-95 belt. Chance of thunder. Snow accumulation 3-6 inches in the vicinity of the rain/snow line, dropping off rapidly from under 3 inches to little or nothing east of the rain/snow line, 6-12 inches west of the rain/snow line but areas of 12-18 inches favoring higher elevations west of I-495 and north of I-90. Lows 27-32 west of the rain/snow line, 33-38 east of the rain/snow line. Wind E to NE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, possibly to or exceeding 50 MPH coast, east of the rain/snow line, NE to N 10-25 mph with higher gusts west of the rain/snow line.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering light snow except mix/rain southeastern MA mainly Cape Cod and Islands, during the morning. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain/snow showers. Breezy. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)
Continuing to watch the March 12-13 for a potential storm, which has some chance of just skirting the southern areas or passing out to sea, however an upper level disturbance may still produce some snow/mix/rain March 13. An additional upper level system may trigger rain/snow showers later March 14 and March 15 before improving conditions at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 17-21)
The transition to a more zonal weather pattern during this period with passing weaker low pressure systems and more variable temperatures.

730 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  6. Thanks tk….32 degrees with a dp of 31 when I left this morning…coating of snow and spitting wet snow….no snow to speak of in Cambridge and truck temp of 38

  7. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Some early morning thoughts….

    1. The Euro never budged. Still calling for ALL SNOW in Boston.
    2. Although the GFS still not calling for much snow, it shows 850 mb below freezing eth whole event and 925 mb below freezing most of the way.
    3. The NAMS are back to a full fledged snow storm for Boston!
    4. RAP is on board with snow storm for Boston.
    5. SREF never budged. ensemble mean 10.63 inches for Boston.

    HELLO!!!!

    NAM Kuchea snow

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018030706/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    3km NAM Kuchera snow

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018030706/060/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    10Z RAP kuchera snow

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018030710/021/snku_acc.conus.png

    euro snow (my service)

    https://imgur.com/a/cHrL8

      2. Jamaica Plain is going to have one interesting event. I believe you will end up being in that gradient. It will be interesting to see if you end up with 2 or 10.

  10. Tk so I’m hearing 1-3 in Boston is that to low now . Amounts for medical & Pembroke area thanks .

    2. Pembroke : may be in that tight snow gradient. Prepare for anything.

      If I had to guess for pembroke, I’d say 3-5 inches of pure cement.

  14. Today is meeting day.
    I get to present a mobile app I developed to senior management at work.
    I am not considered senior management, I’m just the geeky IT guy. 😀

    I’ll be tied up from 11 to 1 or so. bummer on this day.

        1. Good luck, OS. Most, perhapssll, businesses I work with consider the IT “guy” to be every bit as vital to the organization as senior management.

              1. Everyone is disposable especially IT people (been in IT for a loooong time). I see layoffs all the time that get replaced with people who do the same job for half the money. Foreign workers too (not so much these days) would take a lot less and work twice as many hours. Every job I am in I know I am a number somewhere that can be shut down to save a few bucks. You can’t be fiercely loyal to any employer.

                1. I work with senior management and boards. I understand this is present in some companies. Please note that I very specifically said the business I am in and even there a few exceptions exist. Not with my clients, however. Either way….undeniable that it is short sighted. I’m sorry you are under appreciated. Very sad.

        2. Doesn’t look to be the case Philip . Different confusing numbers out there but seems the storm may be colder for Boston . I do think old saltys numbers are way to high but who knows

              1. haha!! I was wondering who might add that….. SSK’s ending just lent itself to a bit of fun!

  17. I don’t understand how a storm that passes near Nantucket/outer Cape produces mostly rain for Boston and tons of snow in the 128 area.

  20. The uncertainty is why I haven’t moved from yesterday’s forecast. 15-mile shift east and Boston is 6+ … Yes we saw a shift east in most model data but that is VERY risky to just bite on even with that much consensus when you have a low center that is going to have a few centers and doing the jello-thing.

    So, for now I kept it all the same. Will be slow to update during the day but will pop on when I can.

    1. This job is never easy is it? Ha. As much as I like this stuff I would never want to do it as a job. Hats off to you sir!

  21. Funny doesn’t feel that cold out. The snow we got this morning – even with no sun and it being early morning – has already melted.

  22. In addition to the trend southeast, there’s been a (related) trend to slow the initial explosive development phase of the low by a few hours, hence the unimpressive radar this morning. That’s actually good for snow in most of SNE, because that will help move the most extreme precip rates into the region as opposed to more towards NYC. NYC and southwest CT still in line for a big hit too though. At this point I think the rain/snow line stays mostly inside of I95. Boston is still a little uncertain. At the airport, there will probably be a good deal of mixing. But you may not have to go more than 3-5 miles inland to get 6+, and maybe not much further than that to get 10+. NYC jackpot also remains on track.

    I think they’ll be some surprised people at the end of the day. From talking to my family in Wrentham, I know they’re expecting mostly rain (they don’t read WHW 😉 ). I think a probable 8-12″ amount there will come as a bit of a shock.

  26. on various radio stations this am, all saying 1-3 inches. wow! some people nay be in for a shock.

  28. Timing of the heaviest snow? Deciding on whether or not to hold after school and athletic programs.

  30. The snow was really coming down in the center of Sutton. A mile or so out and there was nothing. Fascinating how this happens.

      1. That would be a lot of fun. I’m still figuring my way around out here. Daughter airs me out (we go for rides) as she knows the area very well. I have a tendency to look at houses and fields and forget to look where we are going. I was surprised when we traveled down central turnpike the other day after heading to Whittier Farm (Sutton) and were in Oxford before I knew it.

  31. Those early morning squalls lines eastern are originating from the ocean thanks to our east northeast wind trajectory 😀 This is the calm before the real storm which doesn’t crank until later afternoon and early evening.

  32. 12z nam looks to be on track…has the low stall out just east of the NH seacoast, does a loop and then off she goes

  33. Coating of snow on the grass where I am which is just the appetizer for this storm
    Couple tweets
    Meteorologist John Homenuk
    Observations continue to suggest that things are evolving further Southeast than high resolution models depicted yesterday. Trends among these high resolution models help, too.
    Someone here is looking having a snow party.
    https://twitter.com/HartfordHHr/status/971385260155068416

    From Ryan Hanrahan
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/971362257413312512

  34. If you believe you will see greater than 6 inches of wet snow, are you ready ???

    1) Consider having some ice for the freezer and fridge to try to save some of your food

    2) Gas up

    3) Have some cash from the ATM

    4) Any meds you need updated ?

    I’m sure there are others, but I’m guessing the wet snow zones are going to have some multi day power outages.

    1. Just got power back yesterday and I can’t stress how important this advice is for folks. I lost all of the food in my fridge, waited in ridiculous lines for gas, and didn’t have Dunkin coffee for two days (gasp!). Might want to crank your heat today, fill the bathtub if you are on a well, and charge all electronics.

      1. GREAT advice and glad you have your power back. I also froze a ton of bags of water on the deck.

        One tactic I always use if we lose power is to load the freezer with the bags of ice and put as much as I can from the fridge into the freezer (condiments, etc.). The freeze is an excellent cooler. I also fill a couple of coolers with ice and put any items I will use from the fridge into it so I do not have to keep opening and closing fridge. I keep the coolers outside in winter.

        Sue, your insurance should cover the food loss. It may not be worth the pain of filing a claim but thought I’d throw that in there.

        1. Thanks Vicki…great advice about moving the food to the freezer! I definitely let my guard down and should have prepared better for this.

          1. Sue – I never did a thing either and I knew winds were going to be big here and a lot of the area lost power. Not sure why I didn’t think ahead. It was a comment by you yesterday that prompted me to freeze the bags of water.

        1. Same here SSK. My alarm went off this morning and I realized I actually slept through the entire night without waking up. That NEVER happens for me.

          1. Sue just my two cents if thinking about food claim : we have two fridges one main & one in basement I lost a lot of food when Nemo happened . We decided to put in a claim & got $ 500 back from Abella mind you had them for years . After that I had some minor glass claims ( glass covered ) and I think we had a very minor backup in parking lot type accident . The insurance cancelled us after being with them for years . The agent was floored by this and thought it was uncalled for . Lesson learned I lost all of my food again this week having lost power at 5:00 Friday till 12:30 yesterday afternoon. A claim will not be made . Very frustrating.

            1. Thanks SSK. We also have two refrigerators and probably won’t bother with a claim. I’ll play the lottery instead. 🙂

            2. That is why I said it might not be worth the pain of putting in a claim. They will always get the money back and then some. However, there is not need to cancel after that, SSK. Abella sounds as bad as Liberty Mutual.

    2. Well darn – I should have read up, Tom. I saw Sue’s post and went no further. Also excellent advice.

    1. I don’t think that guy realizes what he’s looking at there. Those brown/yellow shaded regions are not CAPE, it’s the LPL height in meters. There is also CAPE contoured on the map, but the only region it exists is well off the Virginia coast. Note how there are two quantities being contoured in that region, with the unfilled contours representing CAPE. The product comes from the SPC Mesoanalysis page.

      Still, there will be some rumbles of thunder in SNE this afternoon. But you’ll never see 3000J pf CAPE with a winter storm…. I hope 😉

  36. The 3-6 is immediate coast Gloucester to Logan to immediate South Shore. Short distance inland it’s 6+.

    Less southeast obviously.

        1. completely agree. increase near the coast, bring the gradient further south and east and …. slightly decrease some of these inland amounts. The inland amounts would be good if it were going to be 25F.

    1. yay….I just about make it into the area. I think I may stay awake all night to see if we have any.

  43. I love watching snow showers come off the ocean like this before a storm. So cool to watch low level flow come from east to west while main precip shield comes from opposite direction. Neat subtlety

    1. Here on the coast, those showers are now mostly rain, but go to snow
      if they pick up in intensity.

  45. So it looks like due to boundary layer issues near the coast, that the coast
    is a mix and/or rain for a few hours until the Meat of the precipitation gets here
    around 6-7 PM then all hell breaks loose.

    I am also very concerned about loss of power as the snow will be unbelievably heavy and wet. HRRR ratios are around 4:1 at the beginning of the heavy snow barrage and only goes up to 7:1 as we get into the wee hours of tomorrow. That is CEMENT!!!

  48. All of my neighborhood streets have been treated. IMO this might be premature since Boston is still assured of a start of rain and those chemicals will only be washed away fairly quickly long before any change to snow.

    Of course the snow intensity will soon overcome any chemical treatment anyway, but still…

    1. CMC has the same damn problem! 925mb and 850mb are very cold, yet
      it shows rain until the end!!!

  52. Another comment from me:

    With the CMC and GFS showing COLD 850mb and 925Mb temperatures,
    whether or not they show snow at the surface, with the intensifying storm with possible thunder snow, there is NO WAY on Earth that it does NOT snow.

  54. Still haven’t been called into my meeting. Everything works in strange and bizarre
    ways around here, that’s for sure.

  55. I will right along the I95 battle zone between good and evil, snow and rain. Who wins out? FWIW, I am back under a winter storm warning after being downgraded to an advisory late yesterday. It could go either way

  57. Home with a sick kid today so if it does snow at least I don’t have to worry about driving

    2. yikes and as near as I can tell Sutton is just on the edge of that area – just not sure in what color

    1. Snowed enough to whiten the ground here in the northeast corner of Sutton; then it all melted while it is still snowing. Very cool!

      1. Did the same in my corner of town. The center and around the schools, however, is still coated. The coating always seems to start just as we approach Blackstone Valley. I find it fascinating.

        1. There are a lot of quick elevation changes around here. It often snows/ices here while one mile down the hill in South Grafton it is raining.

    1. My dad has always said some of the best skiing happens in March, its not bitterly cold but there is powder. Also ski areas that do not have night skiing usually stay open a bit longer

    2. You made me think of my dad too. His favorite was Tuckerman and the headwall on memorial day weekend but he loved March skiing.

  61. From Harv:

    Harvey Leonard‏Verified account @HarveyWCVB · 14m14 minutes ago

     More

    Boston and the I 95 corridor will change to all snow this evening and then heavy wet snow will fall deep into the night. Chances of Boston getting 4” or more are excellent, and 6” or more quite possible…heavy, wet snow with strong NE winds.

    1. Yup! For sure!

      HRRR showing strong signals for very very very Heavy Wet Snow.
      Could be disastrous!

      1. Old salty that 3-6 zone should be a go down RT 3 through Pembroke correct . More snow than rain

    1. I hear ya SSK…throw some wind in the mix and the brigade of trucks will be back on our streets.

  64. They way this is looking the very heaviest most intense precipitation associated
    with the maximum intensification of this system will occur in Eastern MA, including
    Boston. This is going to be a WILD MESS!!
    A Shit storm of heavy heavy water logged cement snow!!!

    8 inches of this crap will be worse than 20 inches of powder.

    2. There is way to much wrong information out there . My rep just updated From mema and has Plymouth county as all rain

  65. From Ryan Hanrahan.
    And it begins. A bunch of thundersnows just now in Lower Manhattan, Governors Island, and Brooklyn.

  66. Just drove home from Cambridge back up to groveland…teno started at 38….at 32 up here….snow/mix in Cambridge to all snow around peabody…snowing moderately now with the grassy surfaces coated. The snow even started to coat I-95 around exit 54

  67. Still spritzing snow in Manchester, CT. Just got back from a meeting at CT DOT and the State is letting them and all non-essential employees out at noon.

    Driving on the roads this AM was like a Sunday AM. No one out there!

    1. I haven’t seen any new maps with 3-6 for the South Shore yet. Just going by the pros on this blog. 🙂

  70. Latest 16Z HRRR indicates that any rain in Boston now changes over to snow
    aroun 4:30 PM or so.

  72. Everything trending south/east and colder at this point. 6″+ even at Logan would be no surprise to me at this stage. Rapid development of the low underway. This is a classic. The HRRR is on it.

  73. Man I posted the chance for 3-6 on my neighborhood FB page and I’m hearing no it’s rain no it’s 1-3 ugh . Thinking about deleting it . Barry just said he may go higer there

      1. I never post amounts on the Sutton FB page or my neighborhood ones. I do post a link to this site. You and I do not have the expertise that many here have so I figure it is wiser to let people come to the source.

        1. It’s not to my town just my neighborhood watch page . Barry is actually maybe going even higher

            1. I also have a neighborhood page as mentioned. I just feel since you or I repeat rather than read the maps, it is safer to give a link to those who know.

              1. And the plus is that WHW is promoted to more people who may tell more people and on and on. Always looking for a way to get more interest in WHW.

  74. Mark I was just flipping the channels and saw Jim Cantore in Bethel. Snow coming down steady where I am. Pavement still wet.

  76. Holy Sh!t !! I just looked at the GFS for Monday and it crushes us. Low down in the 970’s mb range and it stalls out, snowing on us for 48+ hours!

    1. Long time before that storm. Rather see it as a weaker low then get stronger as we approach. Will watch it nice eye candy.

  77. If 12z EURO shows this twitter will go nuts not just with this current storm but the next potential one early next week.

    1. HA I am not even thinking about that. Considering this storm is underway and most of us don’t know what we are getting, I am not banking on anything 5-6 days out.

  80. Looks like a summer thunderstorm with the lightning strikes on the Jersey shore.
    1pm my how things have changed and the snow sticking to the pavement.

    1. Good heavens, they have me in the 12-18. I need to make more bags of ice. This is why I never advise anyone and why I always am clear my predictions are guesses.

  87. I do NOT like how this is trending at all. Poor interior southeast Mass, with increasing chances of several inches of wet snow. I’m starting to think coastal Marshfield might sneak in 2-4 inches of cement too.

  89. I was just outside. Sort of a calm before the storm. Not much of any wind at all
    and just spitting a small rain drop here and there.

  91. After all this I am all in on a bust. Like a lot less snow. Who’s with me? Don’t tell me technology says otherwise…models are still shifting.

  92. It could down hill quickly which was the case where I am. Snow really picked up around 1pm its clinging to the trees and no longer wet pavements.

  95. Don’t think bust for a good while this afternoon.

    With boundary layer temps in the mid-upper 30s, especially along the coast and solar radiation high from the March 7th sun, not much will happen locally the next handful of hours.

    I believe it will take some time into the evening for things to get going in the Boston area.

  96. Surge in Boston Harbor at +2.3 ft and growing.

    Going to take a rather ordinary 9.3 ft tide and make it a 12 ft tide with increasing surf.

    1. I was just looking at that site and showing a colleague of mine.
      There’s no wind to speak of just yet. Throw the wind on top of that
      and we could be looking at 13 feet or more.

  97. Finally starting to pick up in intensity here in Concord. Up until a few minutes ago we had just had flurries – now quickly up to a light coating on the ground.

    Also just got caught up on several days of WHW and for this snow-hater I love this blog both for the incredible information (best to know and be prepared) and also because the enthusiasm and love of storms can be infectious at makes it more fun/exciting/educational for me – rather than just something I dread. I’ve lived in Mass all of my 42 years but cannot seem to embrace the cold and snow. I’m here for the culture , politics, and my family and because I think it’s the best place to raise and educate our son. But thank you all for making yet another pre-storm buildup fun rather than frightening!

    Stay safe tonight everybody!

    1. Oops – iPhone auto fill

      Laurel – aka “MamaMia.”

      And FKA – “GettingBetterAllTheTime.”

      Sorry if I just violated anonymity policy – lol!

      1. I was able to edit the name to your preferred handle. I didn’t realize it was you until I checked the email and saw this, which I can’t do from the Topkatt88 account. You’re all set!

      1. We will be closing in Harvard in two weeks and the house has a stand by generator so next season we can put up anyone from our gang who loses power 🙂

  98. 38.2 at my house in JP as we get things started. Will monitor that
    to see If and how fast it drops.

  100. Arrived home in Coventry CT about 1:30 and it was pounding heavy wet snow with huge flakes. We have picked up a quick inch of snow though roads are still mostly wet. Snow has lightened up now and become finer. 32 degrees.

  101. 12z Euro has the ocean storm next week but it is out to sea and just a grazer. Still a closer pass than the 0z run.

  102. Sure is a good updated discussion from NWS recently about the comma head and where it will traverse overnight.

  105. Mixing with SNOW in the city. That is somewhat of a surprise to me.

    We shall see if it flips. Very very wet flakes mixed in.

  107. TK….I am waiting for you to chime in and say things are going as expected and this trend I am reading here is “fake news”. 🙂

  108. Sutton down to 34 and is all snow again. Wind picking up a little and snow ranging from light to heavier bursts and larger flakes.

  110. I just spoke to a gentleman who works for Amazon. He is in Atlanta now and misplaced from snow areas of the country. He said he and several of his friends in the area truly miss the snow.

  113. Weatherwiz- 12z Euro had widespread 1.5″+ QPF for eastern MA. That’s a lot of heavy wet snow in areas that it stays all snow. Don’t trust the snowmap from my service at all or I’d post it.

  115. Still mostly rain here in the city with some snow mixed in.

    Down to 37.2 at my house in JP.

    Very slow drop in temperature.

      1. Everyone was suitable impressed and they want me to demo to
        all of the staff involved. I think they want to use it. 😀

        Thank you for asking.

        1. Glad to hear it went well JpDave – and I am in awe of anyone in IT as you guys are willing to “tame the beast” – I think my early training on text based MS-DOS ironically instilled in me a complete fear of tech. It was either that or the movie “War Games.” I live in fear of pressing the wrong key!

  116. Very unimpressed with the snow so far here. We are barely even flurrying. After the initial burst of snow, we have been oscillating between light to moderate snow and flurries. Radar is very fragmented in eastern CT/RI. All the heavy/steady stuff is setting up shop further west. I realize its still early, but I think that snow hole that was showing up on some of the models last night is materializing.

    2. If they keep upping amounts, I will having nothing left in my freezer except bags of frozen water 😉

      Although, I am sure I have guaranteed we will not lose power. I have unearthed the lanterns (thank you Coastal for the recommendation of my favorite LLBean lantern years ago) and I have the glow sticks out for the kids.

    3. TBH that is not really a whole lot of change for the vast majority of the region. They even outlined a highly uncertain area (which STILL has some uncertainty) and people are trashing them for that in various places (not here).

      Those are the people that are completely clueless about forecasting.

      1. Agreed. I feel they have done a good job informing. People seem to want one number and then have people stick to it for the duration of every forecast.

  119. MamaMia .. in case you didn’t see above, I edited the name so your comment that was mis-named is now fixed. That’s why it went to moderation. WP didn’t recognize it matching with the email. 😉

    1. Thanks for the catch TK! I was knee deep in a game of “Clue” with my Mom and my 7 year old son – we found my (very) old game in my parents’ attic 🙂

  123. Keep an eye to that Boston harbor buoy. Wind was 080 earlier. Now 070. Continued backing will verify further southeast track.

    1. Just be careful reading that map. The area of greatest pressure fall is not necessarily where the low is tracking. It’s usually somewhere in an area with a tight pressure change gradient, and in this case west and northwest of the area of greatest change.

  126. TK…serious question…assuming this snow pans out and maybe more next week…I know we talked about a front loaded winter. I know before on here it was commented that after late Feb Spring was coming early.

    So my question is…what was missed/not seen/unpredictable/whatever that has made this all happen? I assume the blocking?

    1. Nothing was missed really. There is always more error further out on a long range outlook. We still had a front loaded winter with cold & snow combined.

      The blocking pattern is responsible for this series of storms. But if you recall, northeastern #1 (last Friday) only produced a lot of snow in the Berkshires as far as SNE goes. This one will be decent for a good part of the region, and the jury’s out on anything beyond this.

      1. Yeah true. Thanks for the reply. I am still holding out for a bust even when faced overwhelmingly with science and maps ha.

          1. Yeah. I am having house framing done and the weather has been making it sucky (for lack of a better word). Makes me wonder…for an exposed frame…is snow less damaging than rain? No idea. 🙂

  129. On the Lowell train, it was rain from Boston to wilmington, then a mix between Wilmington and at Billerica north station was snowwith everything coated. Mix of rain and snow throughout the rest of town. Got home it’s rain and some flakes mixing in

  130. TK – the amounts seem to be increasing – at least in this area – are they accurate or are folks not seeing something? Thank you, sir!

    1. There were a couple up-tweaks because of the short range showing a further offshore track. But remember NWS maps are set ranges and also keep in mind the low-end as well as the top end. 🙂

      1. As you know I always watch ranges but they seem to have increased. Either way….what we get is what I’ll be happy with. Thank you.

  131. TK – Regarding the NWS snow maps, I always assumed that Boston is represented as Logan as far as the maps themselves are concerned. If not, then what area of the city does that 7-inch (6-8) represent then?

  134. Quite a few cloud-to-ground lighting strikes in the comma head over NJ and another cluster offshore east of the low.

  136. Mark I think west of I -91 is going to be the jackpot with this storm. Those heavier bands in NJ what will be interesting to watch will all of CT get into them or part of the state. Those bands producing 2-3 inches of snow an hour.

  138. Going mobile for a while. Have to get a few things done before any serious snow back at HQ. I’ll be sporadic for a while and online later tonight…

  139. Boston Buoy current wind as of 4PM 060 degrees. Backing from 070 degrees
    one hour ago. It is beginning.

  140. Only raining here in the city. Precip is too light for any snow to be mixing
    in. Rain snow line “just” to the NW.

    Here is my radarscop display.

    https://imgur.com/a/YjfN9

    I love this display. If not 100% accurate, it is usually fairly close.

  144. The melting level above Boston right now is just about 1500ft, per dual pol radar. As the rates come up that level will fall to the surface. Sunset will help a little also. Look for the change away from the immediate coast by 6PM.

  145. While I’ll probably be wrong, I’m not buying it. However much I like snow and winter, I see the current set-up as problematic for significant snows along most of the Massachusetts coast, up to I-95. Ground is `warm.’ Pavement is `warm.’ Surface temps will remain above freezing throughout this storm. Sure, it will snow later this evening, but how much of that will accumulate on these surfaces? Some, yes. And it may be the case that there’s accumulation of several inches that melt very quickly tomorrow morning on all surfaces except grass. Now you see it now you don’t kind of thing. Even on grass I don’t think there will be much left by tomorrow afternoon.

    Been looking at NYC webcams where it’s definitely snowing hard, but nothing is accumulating on roadways in the city. Zilch. Not even on sidewalks. Different story in Albany where it’s snowing and accumulating with surface temps at or below freezing (temps have been around 32F for several hours).

    1. Totally and completely disagree.

      Please look out to the street around 10 PM tonight and then
      reconsider your statement. 😀

    2. It’s not dark yet that’s when the game changes . I’m right down the street and I’ll be here till sometime tomorrow but on this one I don’t agree they actually keep upping it . The wind is really cranking up here as well . I will say Joshua I hope you are right but this one may be a producer

  148. Just cant get it going here. Continued nuisance variety light snow. Still stuck at an inch and some of that has melted. Getting very impatient!

    1. Pavement surfaces still just wet. There was absolutely NO reason to cancel school here today.

  149. my area been trying to change from rain to snow for most of the late afternoon its now plain rain. I am hopeful it changes soon.

  150. Not much going on here. I left Boston at 3 pm. Made it home in about 1 hour and 10 minutes. No traffic. Rain on the Pike to Framingham, then it started mixing with wet cats paws snow. As I look out my window, it’s down to wet flurries. Nothing sticking. Not even on the grass. I’ll with hold judgment until after dark and the temps drops. So far in in camp Joshua.
    Probably be a foot when I get up in the morning, but so far I ain’t feeling it.

  153. Finally picking up here again in Coventry CT, hopefully for good this time. Moderate snow and 32 degrees.

  154. Going away from the weather for a moment and going to the patriots. Rumors are going around that The Patriots and Sherman could be a possibility as well as talib ( who has been in New England before, but I rather not have him. I rather have Sherman come to New England. Before people say he is a dumb player and disrespectful. During the superbowl win in 2014 against seattle, he went to Brady and congratulated him. Good sports man ship. he also very smart

    1. Sherman’s a good player and a smart guy. Be glad to get him. Talib? He can stay in Denver

  156. Patience. Those heavy snows will eventually traverse our area. It’s not expected for a few hours yet.

  157. I dunno. Looks like the heavier stuff is to the south and west. I guess it could start cranking here later tonight. Looking at the radar, it looks like a pretty tight storm. Unless it stalls out and just stops, and pounds snow for hours, not sure how higher totals verify here. I could be all wrong and have to crank the snow blower in the morning. Looking at the radar, like I said, ain’t feeling it.
    TK said people will start hollering bust too early, so I’ll keep an open mind here. Almost stopped here.

    .

  159. Still light rain and still 36 degrees in North Reading. Wind picking up a little. Not much going on at all.

  161. I agree with some of what was said above regarding accumulation. For example, this time of year the difference between daytime and nighttime in terms of accumulation can be significant. Nevertheless, the surface temperatures do matter, however intense the snowfall. And along the coastal plain they’re not budging much. Several towns and cities have actually seen increases in temperature to the upper 30s in the last few hours. Temps will go down, and of course cooling will take place as the air aloft will be under 32F and there will be a period of intense snow. Yet, to have significant (emphasis on significant, or more than an inch or 2 that doesn’t just disappear once the intensity of the snow lets up) accumulation on relatively warm surfaces (that have been warm for several weeks – no frost in Boston in quite some time) the surface temperature must be lower than 35F. And I don’t see the temperature in Boston dipping below 35F with a east/northeasterly over waters that is now at or around 40F/41F.

    1. That wind will back to NE, NNE and then N.
      and if you don’t think snow can accumulate at 35, then where have you been?

      sorry, just not aligned with your thinking on this.

  163. Back to glorified flurries here in Coventry, CT. Absolutely pathetic snow growth so far in NE CT and central MA. Still only around an inch here. It melts as fast as it accumulates. Losing patience 🙁

    Meanwhile….13″ reported already in New Milford CT. Would not be surprised if they made a run at 20″.

    1. For a small state CT is seeing different types of weather. Southeastern CT rain, eastern CT as you mentioned Mark not a whole lot with snow, and west of I-91 snowing to beat the band.

      1. When JJ looks out the window in the same state, unless I misunderstood, he sees seven inches 🙂

      2. Until what’s out the window is better than what I am seeing on the models, I remain glued to the computer screen….

        Actually coming down good here finally.

  166. While not the same type of storm (iirc) as the April 1, 1997 Storm I do remember sitting at work (I was bartending in the North End at the time…took a 3 year break from 9-5) and wondering up until 6 or so if we were going to get anything at all..It was just cold rain….by 7pm it was coming down like crazy and I had a tough time getting home to Winthrop around 10pm.

    1. I remember an earlier start in meteowest but also slower. Also TK has not raised his numbers which to me is telling. I’m going back to my five ish inches….

      Nice to see you here Keith. Is all well in hingham?

      1. Thanks Vicki.
        Hingham came out of the last storm in very good shape…no outages as far as I know. On vacation this week. A little under the weather the past couple of days but it’s still nice to be home.

    2. Amen to that. Altough this won’t be nearly as bad, it will be similar in terms of when it chnages.

  169. And it’s 2-0 Raptors, 10 seconds into the game.

    The Celtics are going to lose !! Game is over !!

    This is my sports analogy for how far we are into this event and the resulting panic of snow underachieving.

    1. I don’t think it’s panic. Just banter back and forth.
      That’s one thing I like about AmericanWx. They have a model thread, and banter thread. So the serious model analysis stuff stays separate from the back and forth.

  170. Harvey saying even if it’s 8/9 with changeover it’s still going to accumulate 1-2 inches per hour . If you have doubts my man has just spoke .

    1. When I had ch 5 at my house Monday night I made sure I made mention of Harvey . But they decided to cut my interview. They were in my house.

  171. this seems to be more progressive than i thought it would be. I know we will get to the heavy stuff tonight but how we are going to get wide spread double digit snow totals with it moving fast. it will snow heavy for about 4 hours. unless we get 2 to 3 inches per hour snow rates for at least 3 hours then i think we are good. but then again i could be totally wrong and out of my mind like the gfs model lol

  172. I don’t understand Ch. 25 snow map, still showing 1-3″ for Boston.

    And yet they were the first to announce that BPS will be closed tomorrow. 😉

  173. Lightning strikes southeastern Connecticut.
    Power lines on fire in East Taunton.

  174. TWC and radar saying it’s snowing on me right now. Well, it’s heavy rain and has been for hours. One model said it would changeover by 4pm, then 6pm, now 8pm? Running out of time for model verification

  176. An interesting observation. This is like watching a pats game as if starts. And don’t blame the messenger. FB says I am a shenanigator I’m just living up to a word I am fond of. Or if that doesn’t work, we can always go back to snark

  177. I continue to say it feels nothing like snow out there. Not b/c it’s been a cold rain all day but just a feeling.

  178. According to Harvey, once the temps get to 35F in any location, any rain should flip to snow. As of this posting, Logan is at 38F.

  179. Dropped to 33 here. Snowing a little harder and starting to stick a little on the grass. It’s like paste.

  181. pure rain, of course this happens my area is all rain right now. 🙁 Can i never get the jackpot?

  182. 20″ reported in Morris County, NJ
    15″ New Fairfield, CT

    Just saw multiple reports of thundersnow from different towns in central CT.

    Ryan Hanrahan also just reported multiple trees and branches down on the Merritt Parkway in southern CT.

  183. Radar says it’s currently pounding snow and has been for the last hour. Only problem is, it’s raining. I believe models have counted this in their totals so we should knock off a couple inches from the total. Anyone in the Foxboro/Mansfield/Sharon area seeing snow?

  184. You may or may not have noticed that…

    *I never specified a change time for anywhere in the zone of uncertainty.

    *I left my snow amounts generally alone today.

    🙂

    1. Pssttt I noticed and mentioned that you didn’t change Amounts

      Snowing here now. Radar filling in. I’ll stick to my 5ish and will enjoy whatever we get.

    2. Your second point is telling. I’m guessing you’re not buying the big totals getting to the PVD to Boston corridor? Big meaning 6+

  185. Meanwhile…I’ve still only got 3″ here in Coventry. Snowed hard for awhile but we keep struggling with this huge dry slot that has been persistent over NE CT and central MA. Just cant overcome it. Definitely going to underachieve here.

    Going to be some huge variations in snow totals across the state when all is said and done.

        2. Ha! GFS bench mark special. I’ll believe that when I see it.
          And that one may be all she wrote.

  186. Pouring rain in Woonsocket and North Smithfield just about 15 miles southeast of me.

    2. My wife is from Fairfield. The Merritt is a dangerous road on a sunny day with no cars on it.

  188. It’s thumping hard in Wilmington, big time rates, this one’s gotten off to a banging start!

    In rain, that is…

    Looking like TK’s numbers will be the ones that verify. Seems like the huge NWS numbers will be limited to whoever is under the big bands.

  189. I’m not ruling out some 6+ amounts not too far from the coast. It can literally take place in 2 to 3 hours when the comma head crosses eastern MA.

    1. Nice JJ! I’m glad someone is getting snow. And you were worried 😛 Any thunksersnow?

  192. this blob of yellow and red echoes keeps retreating back everytime it pushes north. its like blocked by some magic force. Tk do you think our area will see the heavy yellow and orange echoes late or we have to wait for the comma head to come? it looks to be heading more north west and miss northeastern mass. i know north eastern mass will get action later from the comma head but i was hoping we get the echoes from the south as well. Yes i know i am being impatient lol . I was hoping to see snow by now.

    1. I don’t think that blob of yellows and reds is necessarily heavy precip. It’s radar reflection of snowflakes aloft. I think

  193. Talking to some friends this is what they are reporting
    Lowell, snow/rain.
    North Billerica (train station area) Snow with rain mixing in
    Billerica center Snow/rain
    Tewksbery, rain.
    Burlington Rain.
    south Billerica Rain.
    Radar shows it as all snow, but its not.

    1. Exactly. What the radar is showing as snow was calculated in as accumulated snow in the models. Take model outputs and reduce by at least 25%

  195. AceMaster no thundersnow where I am. There have been parts of CT that have had thundersnow. 1pm things went down hill and roads started to get snow covered.

  197. Absolutely pouring in Boston right now & it feels warmer . Harvey sticking with 4-8 & 2-4 south shore .

      2. Laughing my ass off Harvey is not backing down 4-8 Boston . Said it’s not going to take much once it’s here. Let it happen .

  201. Still pounding rain in Wilmington. But progress has been made! Looks like there’s some snow mixing in now.

  202. 15-20 minutes ago changed to heavy snow and we had a coating on ALL surfaces.

    JJ said it doesn’t take much time once it starts and he is right

  203. im not buying into a bust, I am just wishing it starts snowing already, I have had it with the stupid rain.

  204. Snowing pretty good here right now. Pure paste. Kind of snow you stand out in for about 10 minutes and you’re soaked to the bone.

  205. getting some wet flakes mixing in here in coastal marshfield.

    The harbor buoy wind is backed now to 060, the low is sliding underneath us, otherwise from its current position, the wind would be veering. That heavy precip will remain generally in place for hours and the snow will overtake more and more real estate.

    Patience ……

  206. 2 stages for the snow: The dynamic cooling changeover stage the next few hours and then the “blowback” or comma head stage after that which will feature a synoptic band expand westward across eastern and into central MA. Thunder most likely with the blowback stage.

  208. Surge is almost 3ft right now at Boston Harbor, hopefully wind direction will be better by 4am high tide to lessen the surge.

    2. It sure is Kathleen. Myself & the crew waiting for the changeover it’s going to be crazy tonight but most will probably be in bed by than

  213. TK. I was txting nine year old granddaughter about storm and shared your comment re comma head. I found an image online as an example. I said it was pretty cool. She said it is the coolest thing ever. We have a budding met

    1. I miss the west side but will be back there in the Spring. I am close to Burlington now.

  221. Vicki your right when you said when it switches it switches quickly. In addition it accumulates. Down in Norwich CT where they have a crew from NBC CT it was raining most of the day. Switched to snow around 5:30 and its accumulating pretty quickly.

  222. I have all inside lights off. Outside lIgths on to see snow but dark enough to see lightning. I may have to stay up all night

  223. Pounding heavy snow in Coventry, CT for the past couple hours now. Finally into the 1-2″ per hour stuff. 6″ on the ground now and 29 degrees.

    More thundersnow just reported in W Hartford as well…

  229. FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    That was the longest most excruciatingly slow changeover I have ever seen.

    Snowing in JP now.

    Temp down to 35.

  234. I saw snow mixed in since 4:30 PM when I left the office. Just would not go over and it
    was mostly a little bit of mixing on and off with straight rain. Then from about 7Pm
    to almost 8 PM it began mixing and the temp started dropping. Just before 8 PM
    it went over. It sure like nice!

  241. Starting to get really jealous. Still hardly any snow in North Reading and zero accumulation. Temp is 33.6 though.

      1. Close to 8PM here. I fully expected it to change between
        4 and 6 PM. Wow! Did I ever Miss. Making up or lost time now.

  245. Flipped to snow on the west side of Woburn at 7:45PM and I drove home in it. Low vis, but just wet roads. Everything else covered with a thick coating. Slushing up on driveway.

    Staying with the same snow amounts for now although interior SE MA may get a little above what I said.

  247. When it was snowing really hard an old friend of mine used to say:
    “It’s Snowing Like cuckoo birds!”

  248. Power just flickered. Hearing a lot of reports of tree branches snapping and power outages across the State.

  249. Never mind. It was daughter taking a flash pic out window. I have now officially disowned her. I didn’t think it was snowing hard enough. Back to sitting in the door.

    Signed,
    A very disappointed Vicki

      1. Niece thought she saw some too. Her boyfriend said he also just saw Santa fly by. There will be some very sorry folks tomorrow. Thunder snow is a very serious thing

  250. down to 33.8, all roofs, cars and grassy surfaces covered and our road is beginning
    to slush over. Awesome!

    Into the yellow echos here.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.2891304347826087&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=318.72180451127815&centery=400.82706766917295&transx=-81.27819548872185&transy=160.82706766917295&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25341212&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  252. I just looked outside my door again and I am pretty sure it’s snowing at a rate of 100″ per hour.

  256. Everything is White. It’s a Winter Wonderland out there. My street is now
    Covered in White Snow, Not slush.

  257. 10.5″ accumulated and 9.5″ compacted on the ground now

    I have measured 6″ in the past 1 HR and 45 MIN!!!

    This is what I’m talking about!!

      1. This is Nemo-esque. Once it gets going, it mounts up fast!! Though I’m down to 29F now so the ratios are getting a tad higher which is helping it to add up more quickly

    1. Crunch time for our region and whether we get a lot of wet snow in a snow period is later on overnight.

  261. Getting awfully close to our 1st inch here. My street is totally covered from end
    to the other.

    1. Speaking of Oreos…there are like 24 different flavors now it’s ctazy. Even saw Swedish fish flavored Oreos the other day. Double Stuff or nothing 🙂

      1. I like the thin ones dipped in milk…and fair warning….I’m in a really bad mood. You don’t want to cross me 😉

        Just kidding.

      1. Haha..I decided to just open slider and close screen so not much snow comes in. I need a glass of wine though. Designated survivor not on for an hour so I have plenty of time to enjoy

        But I’m betting under your bed has a lot fewer dust bunnies than mine. There is always an up side !!

      2. I was introduced to the Mega Stuff Oreos while on one my radio trips a few years ago. Had to buy them through Amazon until they became locally available…Have two packages of them here at home right now 🙂

      1. I’m thinking about 7-10 inches at my house in JP.
        Maybe 5-7 at the airport. We shall see.

        Is it evening snowing at the airport?

        1. At 7:54 PM, here was the obs

          Last Updated: Mar 7 2018, 7:54 pm EST
          Wed, 07 Mar 2018 19:54:00 -0500
          Weather: Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy

          1. Airport at 8:54

            Last Updated: Mar 7 2018, 8:54 pm EST
            Wed, 07 Mar 2018 20:54:00 -0500
            Weather: Light Snow Fog/Mist and Windy
            Temperature: 33.0 °F (0.6 °C)

  265. What’s the thinking at the moment as the ultimate snowfall total for Logan?

    I’m in Quincy, where it is snowing and 34F but dropping. The snow is so far only sticking to the grass.

    1. Logan should still fall in the 3-6 range but this will largely depend on how long they are under a couple heavier bands in the next 5 hours.

  269. INCREDIBLE snow band has set up and just parked itself in western CT/MA/southern VT. Ridiculous rates under that band occurring. TWC just reported a town in southern VT just picked up 6 INCHES in one hour!!

    JJ are you under that band or is it just west of you??

    Going to see many two foot reports coming in from western CT under that band.

  271. Healthy coating in W Newton. Will be an inch in a heartbeat.
    I plan to shovel before bed at about 10-1030. Expect there will be 2-3 ” then.

    Beautiful quiet big flakes. Everything turned white in no time. A Wonderland.

  273. Credible report of 26” of snow including 18” in three hours with that band near the Berkshires. That is absolutely insane.

  275. Seriously, find a window or door or slider or whatever. Sit in it. Listen. This is the true definition of peace. The beauty of natures miracles.

  277. Of course the heavy snow bands form not in my location after all that stupid rain all afternoon.

  278. That is the 18″ in 3 hours… Thankfully, I can imagine the quiet and peace. No exclamation point needed. Tonight has a bit of magic to it…almost like Christmas or New Year’s Eve at home.

  279. Came down heavy as Harvey said it’s tapering some but I suspect not long . It stuck immediately once it turned over . I’ll update when I can .

  281. Looks like almost an inch on the ground in Wilmington with 1″ per hour snow rates the last half hour or so.

    1. 6, 7″ definitely sounds like a good forecast for this area now unless we get under a big band.

  283. Moderate to heavy snow for the last hour here in Woburn (back on Woods Hill) and we’re just reaching 1 inch.

    1. Waiting for school cancellations ha. Should this be mostly done by 3am? By that u mean the a accumulating snow.

  285. I was meeting my brother in Cambridge this evening, and so I was out and about. It is 34F where I am. It is snowing. I’d say moderate to heavy at times. Slush is accumulating in patches on sidewalks and side streets. Waterlogged snow is accumulating on cars, grass, and trees. But, it is not snowing at a 2 inch per hour clip. Certainly not accumulating to that degree by any stretch of the imagination. And I like to stretch my imagination. We’ll see what the rest of the evening brings. It looks like we’ll have bursts of heavy snow, but also lulls or at least lighter intensity at times, too. I’m not counting on much snow when I wake up tomorrow. But maybe I’ll be pleasantly surprised. I did notice that Albany and the surrounding area have already lightened up considerably. They’re not going to achieve the totals forecast. New York City has turned to rain and snow. I think the areas that will do well are in Connecticut away from the coast, parts of Central and Western Massachusetts. But even there I have a hard time believing that any locale will get to 18 inches, in part because of the ratio’s but also the slightly more progressive system.

    1. Don’t discount higher amounts just southwest of Boston. This storm has only just begun.

  286. Mark the snow has lightened up where I am. Had a good snow band from 7pm -8pm. Up 11.5 inches of snow

  287. ChaseCarry,,,Christmas, New Years, Easter, birthday. Love your comment.

    As I typed my comment above, Louis Armstrong What a wonderful world played on my music system. Says it all

  288. This storm has already overachieved relative to what was being forecasted just 24 hours ago.

  290. I’m hearing a few limbs cracking in woods on hill behind house. Even 4 inches is heavy. Some areas of grafton have power out

  292. Northeast mass once again seem to have been avoided when it comes to the heavy snow accumulations 🙁 Oh well, unless the ski areas have a good size storm.

  293. Back to all snow here for the past 20 minutes or so..starting to whiten up pretty quickly…wind is also picking up again.

  294. My old house in framingham does not have power. I am jealous. And yes, I may be nuts but life is, after all, an adventure

  295. About maybe a half inch here and coming down pretty good here now. The funny thing is that the roadway here is covered just as much as my lawn.

  296. Slush fest going on in medical area . Accumulation of slush . We just checked radar looks to go to 7 or 8am

    1. Are you measuring on the ground or a board? I live right in the center of town. We’re probably neighbors.

  299. Up to 13.3″ accumulated here in Coventry CT with compacted snow depth on the ground of 11.3″. Snow has lightened up considerably. I’d love to make it to 15″ but we’ll see.

    That intense snow band remains parked in western CT and up through the Berkshires. Going to be seeing a swath of insane snow totals on the order of 20-30″ in that corridor. Incredible snowfall rates and virtually no movement of that line for hours.

  300. 1.5 inches of snow here in Billerica….. Very large flakes. Yawn. Hopeful for the next storm to give my area a good snow but highly doubt it.

  301. Must be some sorta of Charlie a hole in North Reading. Been snowing for two hours, but really not heavily. And, visibility is fine. Makes me sad.

    1. in the same boat. 🙁 Always seems like we are always in the middle, storms either to close and gives us a bunch of rain or its good for other people and we get the lessor amounts of the storm. None of these people south and east of Boston were suppose to get that much and some of them have more than us.

    2. Same in Boston . It’s a snow / rain mix . Extremely wet !! Main roads totally fine & drivable. Side walks getting drenched with slush. Harvey updated 5-9 we shall see as I’m going to be a wise man and just see what happens . Old salty must not be thrilled with the performance so far or maybe the in JP it’s sticking better .

  303. Mark that band you were mentioning came back east just enough that I am in it. Snowing moderate clip. I think that will give the half inch I need to get over a foot.

    1. Nice. Are you clearing snow every so often when you measure? If not, you are probably already over a foot. I got 13.3″ so far but its compacted down to 11.3″ where I didn’t clear it and left it untouched.

    1. Absolutely crushed. Will be interested to see what Berkshire East ends up with in the Am. They are still under that heavy band.

      North Adams has 24” so far

  305. The snow is too heavy to measure. It is just compacting. Now I have to figure how to sleep lightly in case we have thunder snow. Night all….enjoy !!!!

  306. Mel and Matt I am in the same boat. I live in Reading and it’s not much better here. Bands are moving from the east and nothing really impressive comin. Merrimack valley always get shadowed. I always thought that north eastern mass does the best when it comes to nor easters but not this.

    1. not that big of a snow hit. 3 to 6 inches, does not crank up the snow until your further up in Maine. This storm has been pathetic.

    2. also its the gfs, all the other models have it well south and we all know how bad the gfs has been.

  310. packing it in for the night. 11″ in Holden. (I measure on a 2’x2′ board 30″ off the ground on two sawhorses.

  311. About 2 sloppy inches here after nearly 4 hours of snow.
    It snows an inch worth, but accumulates 1/2 inch. Slop, pure slop.

    NOT making the higher totals here. Not gonna happen.
    Reasons?

    1. It changed to snow too late.
    2. Intensity NOT as advertised.
    3. Snow is too wet, very low ratio.
    4. May get Charlie Holed

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=1&delay=25&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.47391304347826085&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=275.50458715596335&centery=275.8715596330275&transx=-124.49541284403665&transy=35.871559633027516&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25341405&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    JP “may” eek out 6, wouldn’t surprise me if less. Best case scenario 7 or 8 and that
    would be a stretch.

    VERY disappointed in the snow intensity. It was nice for the 1st hour or so and that was that. Decent since, but not what I expected to be sure.

      1. In the time between when I posted that and now, the Charlie
        hole has completely filled in and it looks like we might get into
        some really intense snow. Then and only then can the higher numbers be realized. We shall see.

        https://imgur.com/a/XGM5V

  315. Ok. The folks saying that this is a disappointing storm were saying that before the heaviest got to them.

    Many people are doing exactly what I said would happen – calling it “bust” or “disappointing” 1) before it happens or 2) when the snow will reach the expected ranges anyway. 😉

    For the most part, the storm is behaving how it was expected to, and there are always going to be pockets where #’s are a little above or below the forecast ranges. Snow pretty much never falls in uniformly distributed accumulation contours, even if forecast maps make it look that way. 😉

      1. But the snowfall this winter is fairly close to normal, and has pretty much doing as many of the long range forecasts have indicated.

        I’m a snow-lover, but I’m a realist snow-lover. I don’t have this unreasonable expectation that somehow every winter is going to be or should be well above normal. That’s just silly. 🙂

          1. I was probably like that as a kid. When I became a forecaster “officially” I became more of a “weather realist”, probably because I had to forecast so many parameters for so many parts of the world…

    2. Forgot to mention, we lost power, but only for a minute…Have had some pretty brisk wind gusts and heard some loud cracking and creaking coming from the woods behind my house.

      1. So far we’ve been lucky here. We’ve had power blink 3 times briefly and that’s it…

  316. Taunton Latest Snow Totals:
    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

    Upton’s Totals:
    https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201803080307-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

    Albany’s Totals:
    https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

    20” in Newtown, CT and 24” in North Adams, MA. Still snowing in both places.
    Also saw an unofficial report out of southern VT of 30”

  317. I give up… 😉
    I have reached the conclusion that some people will never be satisfied with any storm. I’m just going to stick to the weather and forget the psychology part of it. I’ll watch Survivor for that. 😉

    We have to learn something: Weather forecasting is the predicting of billions of cubic miles of fluid within fluid and how it will impact things in detailed ways down to very small locations. There are going to be some errors of varying magnitudes in these predictions, mine, or others. That’s just how it is. You’ll find that more often than not most of the criteria predicted are reasonably accurately predicted. That reads “more often than not” and not “always”.

    Also, predicted ranges are just that, predicted ranges. There are occasions when a location may measure something that falls below the lowest number of a range. There are occasions when a location may measure something that falls above the highest number of the range. Weather forecasting is inherently not able to be done perfectly (unless you’re a non-met on the internet with a fake weather page and really love yourself).

    And regarding predicted ranges, people HAVE GOT TO STOP FOCUSING ON THE TOP NUMBER! Even today, I told someone “I expect you to get 6 to 12 inches”. And their reply: “Oh great! A foot of snow!” And I said no, “6 to 12 inches. In other words, if you get 6 inches, the forecast is correct…” It took me a while to get them to understand this.

    Also, if there is one forecast I make perfectly every time, it is people calling storms “duds” before they even start or are at their half-way points. I had people today where I was asking me “where’s all the snow they said we were going to get?!” BEFORE NOON. On the net I actually saw someone this morning claim that the storm was incorrectly forecast at about 8AM because their coating of snow overnight had melted and it was lightly raining there, which, by the way, had been predicted accurately, with a forecast of rain changing to snow and significant accumulation occurring about 12 hours later.

    I simply do not get it.

    Moving on… 🙂

    1. You are still the best forecaster I have ever experienced…most of the time I am here just having fun here with the posts I make. And, I get jealous when I read about locations in Connecticut and New Jersey getting up to 2 feet. So lucky! Anyway, I was hoping the intensity would have been a little higher here, but I will be satisfied with the 7-8 inches we end up with. I also never said I thought it was a dud, but did post that I was moving close to the dud column. All in good fun. 🙂

      1. Oh I know. And most of the time I rant about “people” it is generally triggered by a Facebook page or a personal encounter. 😉

        The “dud” reference actually came from Facebook earlier. But the one that called it that THIS MORNING really made me laugh. 😉

        And thanks for the compliment! I don’t think I’m the best but I do think there is always something to learn from every event. 🙂

  319. Plow woke me up…too warm to get up and look out the window ha. TK if you are awake how we looking?

    1. I have not officially measured, but I can give an in-progress measurement if you give me a moment…

  320. As of 1:30AM, adding the 0.2 inch coating from early Wednesday morning and the 5.8 inches so far from the main event I sit at 6.0 for the storm here in Woburn, with a few hours to go.

  321. Wow ok…guess it did add up. Thanks again. Have to shovel by 7am-ish to get people to work ha.

  322. 00z Euro still out to sea with the Monday storm but perhaps a tick closer than 12z. It’s a potent system. Gfs is a hit and CMC is a semi-hit as well. Our next watcher….

    1. I don’t think that will be a clean miss. There is also likely to be a double upper level low with a second piece having to swing through on Tuesday.

      1. I don’t either. Several EPS members earlier were sizable hits. And these things seem to gradually trend further NW as we get closer to the event.

  323. Picked up another half inch and looks like several more hours of light snow to go. Up to 13.8” of snow. It looks like my measurement is the highest on Taunton’s spotter report list. Not sure people realize that you should be clearing the snow every so often to avoid a measurement that is tainted by compaction. If I measure in undisturbed snow, it’s 11”. That’s nearly 3” of compaction that has occurred due to the heavy wet nature of the snow.

      1. Really? I didn’t know that. I seem to recall them suggesting clearing the snow every 2” in the spotter training course I took.

  326. Lost one of four main shoots off of our old Norway Maple due to the heavy snow. It took out a section of rail fence and out onto a small part of the street. Sad to lose part of the tree but nature’s way of pruning on its own.

    2. That is indeed nature’s way. Still a bummer to lose something that is naturally sentimental. Glad the damage was minimal and not worse.

  327. From NWS…

    Measure and record the greatest amount of snowfall that has accumulated on your snowboard (wooden deck or ground if board is not available) since the previous snowfall observation. This measurement should be taken minimally once-a-day but can be taken up to four times a day, (every 6 hours) and should reflect the greatest accumulation of new snow observed (in inches and tenths, for example, 3.9 inches) since the last snowfall observation. Snowfall amounts can be measured hourly or at any interval as long as the snow measurement board is NOT cleared more frequently than once every 6 hours. If you are not available to watch snow accumulation at all times of the day and night, use your best estimate, based on a measurement of snowfall at the scheduled time of observation along with knowledge of what took place during the past 24 hours. If you are not present to witness the greatest snow accumulation, input may be obtained from other people who were near the station during the snow event. If your observation is not based on a measurement, record in your remarks that the “snow amount based on estimate”. Remember, you want to report the greatest accumulation since the last observation. If snowfall occurred several times during the period, and each snowfall melted either completely or in part before the next snowfall, record the total of the greatest snowdepths of each event and enter in your remarks “snowfall melted during the OBS period”. For example, three separate snow squalls affect your station during your 24-hour reporting day, say 3.0, 2.2, and 1.5 inches. The snow from each event melts off before the next accumulation and no snow is on the ground at your scheduled time of observation. The total snowfall for that reporting 24-hour day is the sum of the three separate snow squalls, 6.7 inches, even though the snow depth on your board at observation time was zero.

    Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the “snow melted as it landed”.

    It is essential to measure snowfall (and snow depth) in locations where the effects of blowing and drifting are minimized. Finding a good location where snow accumulates uniformly simplifies all other aspects of the observation and reduces the numerous opportunities for error. In open areas where windblown snow cannot be avoided, several measurements may often be necessary to obtain an average depth and they should not include the largest drifts. In heavily forested locations, try and find an exposed clearing in the trees. Measurements beneath trees are inaccurate since large amounts of snow can accumulate on trees and never reach the ground.

    If your daily schedule permits, you may wish to make a snowfall observation every 6-hours, beginning with your regularly scheduled time of observation. This is the procedure followed by National Weather Service Forecast Offices. Follow the same rules for a once-a-day observation, but the snow accumulation reported will be the greatest for the previous six hours instead of 24 hours. If you take your observations at this frequency, make sure that you clear your snowboard (or other measuring surface) no more than once every 6 hours. Record the frequency of observations during the day in the comments section of your report. Never sum more than four, six-hourly observations to determine your 24-hour snowfall total. If you use more than four observations, it would falsely increase snowfall totals.

  328. Heaviest snow of the event occurring right now at my location. Nearly white-out under a passing heavy band. This was the 2nd phase I made mention of earlier. Westward expansion of heavy precip band under the storm’s comma head as it starts to move by this latitude.

      1. For sure.

        Sleeping in stages tonight. An hour or 2 here in there. Going to take a 3 1/2 hour nap now then start Thursday. 😉

  330. Thanks, TK for all your great info. It’s been a great discussion just before and throughout this storm.

    I can’t begin to guess how much snow we’ve got. Looks so far like we have a lot. According to radar we seem to be in a brief dry slot. Looks like more coming in from east. Yes, we got thundersnow around 8:00 or so! Sounded like an airplane at first but husband said it was thunder. Sure enough, looked out window and there was lightning. Our lights have fickered on and off at times; I am guessing from past experience they will go out at some time – hope I am wrong. Another potential storm Mon. or Tues.? For those who are getting snow, hope you are enjoying it. I hope the ski slopes up north got a lot. Personally, for us down here who like snow but are ready for spring – Enough!

    1. And for those who don’t like snow – here’s hoping the next storm misses us and no more snow until nxt. winter! BTW – I’m hoping for no more snow ’til then too.

  331. My best estimate for medical area is 3-4 inches . It’s light now after again a heavy burst came in. I’m pushing 24 hr work cycle soon .

  332. Got up several times to observe. Looks pretty, but there’s not much snow. It’s gloppy and only sticking to side streets in downtown Boston. Even there it’s mostly wet and will be gone in the morning without the help of plows. I’d say that in Back Bay about 1 to 1.5 inches on the ground, but that’s compacted. So perhaps 2 or 2.5 inches fell in total? I do not consider the storm a bust as I never expected Boston to get much, but the heavier snow totals (and very intense snows) were confined to a few areas like the Berkshires and Southern Vermont.

    1. About 4.5 Joshua and this thing just won’t shut off . I’m good I’ve had enough .

  333. Good morning.

    Tide guage in Boston shows tide has reached 12 to 12.5 feet for 2 straight hours !!!!! as a result of a 3 ft storm surge.

    I’m looking forward to seeing the difference in snowfall a few miles west of me. I have a dusting.

    Looks like the comma head is hitting eastern mass hard now.

  335. Jamaica Plain and Boston’s suburbs appear to have been sitting under a heavy snow hand for a while now …

  337. TK, I’m not familiar with word press and how much work this would be and if what you think of the suggestion.

    I throw out there the creation of a new section (like gardening)

    Storm verification or overachieving/underacheiving thoughts, where people can blog on how they think the storm is performing.

    1. (Like there is a section for gardening)

      The 3rd paragraph gives some name ideas.

      My grammar …. it’s a good think I teach math 🙂 🙂 🙂

  338. Good morning.

    By the best measurement of all, this storm was not a bust.
    My Office is closed for the day!!!!!

    However, the total snow is not impressive in any way shape or form.
    I’ll measure when the snow stops, but looking out the window, I’d say there is
    4 or 5 inches on the ground, but with compaction I’d say an inch or 2 more has actually accumulated.

    1. Well it looks like a fair amount of snow to go.
      It got started later than expected, so perhaps it ends later as well.

  340. Looks like visibility is down around 1/4 mile here despite the airport obs of light snow.
    I’d definitely say heavy snow here.

    1. Interesting…we never made it past the 2 or 3 inch mark here. Just all that much closer to the water I guess.

  342. We have about 16 to 18 inches of snow in Pelham New Hampshire. I am at an elevation of 335 feet so we stayed snow the entire time.

  344. 8/9 inches here. Too compacted to be sure

    Hope everyone is ok

    Power went out around 3:00 with some huge flashes. No idea what flashed. Usually it is arcing but our wires are underground

    Lost a little tree on hill. Other trees on property are sagging.

  345. Looks like about a foot here. Power is out all over town. Generator running, coffee on, kids watching TV, and I have internet. Thanks you 9000 watt Honda.

    1. Man that couldn’t have been cheap those Honda’s are good though. Having my new place wired for a whole house generator but for now we are in the dark ha. Woburn only has 84 people without power.

    2. And what did you say last night?

      something about a bust and the watch I’ll wake up to a foot of snow???
      or something along those lines. 😀

  348. I’m in France this week, still waiting to hear results from home in Andover and if they have power…. Per National Grid outage map, they are surrounded by outages, but look to be okay, but not sure how accurate that is… School was cancelled, so no one up yet…

      1. been mostly cloudy and rainy! Not as cold as expected though, 40’s. Still cool for here I guess.

  350. Actually not bad to shovel. Did half my driveway in 20 minutes. Heavy yes but not as bad as I figured.

  351. NWS Boston tweeted that, as of 7AM, Logan had 5.9″. So they’ll end with 6+.

    For a complicated storm, I’m happy with how the forecast worked out, and glad I leaned on a colder solution. Most places in that general 8-14″ range, with a few higher pockets, and lower in the mixing zone of course.

    That band in the Berkshires was just incredible, one of the most impressive weather features I’ve seen. Fairly sparsely populated out there, I’d imagine there were some 40″+ totals that won’t be measured in western MA into southern VT.

  352. Governor closed all state offices today for nonemergency workers. I looked out the window here in hingham and it looks like nothing. But then i looked at the mema site and the list of people without power is 300k+ again.

  353. I’m so looking forward to our La Niña hurricane this summer ….

    When the eye is east of Hatteras ….

    This is a bust !! I’ve only received .08 inches of rain. I was supposed to get 6 – 8 inches.

    Where’s the 90 mph wind gusts, currently a wind gust of 8 mph. What a joke !!

    10 hrs later, same bloggers after center has passed through central new england …..

    7.11 inches of rain. It was torrential rain the last several hrs.

    96 mph wind gust, no power. The storm ended up overachieving.

  354. New post!

    Will do a review of the storm in the comments this evening…
    I’ll be mobile most of the day.

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