Thursday Forecast

165 Comments

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)
5 years ago on March 8, we were dealing with the lingering end of a very big snowstorm in the region. Though this storm’s snowfall was not as big in much of the region, it was still quite significant and will be a little slow to end in portions of the region during today as low pressure pulls away toward the Canadian Maritimes. In the comments later I will talk about snowfall amounts and how the forecast worked out. But moving on, forecast-wise now, we’ll be watching upper level low pressure coming through the region with additional rain/snow showers Friday and part of Saturday, and then will eye another low pressure system by late Sunday and especially Monday. The track of that storm is uncertain but the leaning is that it will be a little further south than the last couple with more of a grazing than direct hit. But this is not a high confidence forecast.
TODAY: Cloudy. Lingering snow with up to 1 inch of additional accumulation through the morning mainly east central and northeastern MA to southeastern NH. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts along the coast.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain and snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain/snow showers. Breezy. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)
Additional snow showers as upper level low pressure crosses the region March 13, followed by another threat of some precipitation by March 15 with yet another upper level system, and then a third system brings a better chance of rain showers March 17 as it should be milder.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 18-22)
Drier and briefly colder, then a moderating trend but another round of unsettled weather possible by the end of the period.

165 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  3. Can’t resist-first!
    No school in Milton. I have no idea how much snow is out there–hard to say; the bird bath looks like maybe 3, but my husband’s footprints look pretty deep.

  4. Dang. Longshot was first. Thanks for the post tk.

    Heres what my front stoop looks like in hingham:

    https://i.imgur.com/Nh20MRh.jpg

    So i think i can speak for myself and keith and say: wow for once Hingham gets a break from a massive storm. This never happens! lol.

      1. Hahaha i am going to say I am still right too. Because i can totally push this small amount with a broom even if every other city can’t!

        1. The good doctor is correct…we needed this “miss”…but overall the storm behaved just as TK predicted.

          I just have flashbacks to Feb 2015 (that 6 week period) where it just seemed like those of us here in the Hingham, Norwell, Weymouth, Hanover, Cohasset area just had that freight train of snow that kept going for hours after other areas quit.

    1. And yet i see a ton of bitching online about how the forecasters “got it wrong”. Oh my word. lol

        1. I’d say the people will realize they are the ones who are wrong but there is no hope there

  6. Thank you, TK for your great forecasts and information.

    We got 11 inches in Sudbury. Many roads closed due to fallen trees, wires. Our lights have flickered and once went off for about a min. Back on, but I expect they will go out again.

    Stay safe, everyone.

  8. I personally think this storm was well forecasted. To me, the coastal plain and especially I95 was never a guarantee for snow. The models showed this pretty well I think and given the time of year, no arctic high, etc…, risky bet to think epic snow. If there was a bust, it was to our southwest where snow was underforcasted. That much heavy wet snow where 100 trillion people live is dangerous.

  9. Good morning Again. Checking in after shoveling and reviewing the situation, including a bunch of measurements.

    1. After averaging a bunch of measurements and avergaging, I ended up with a total snowfall of 7.5 inches. I have no idea what the wipe away method would have been? 8 , 8.5, 9?? I dunno. Just 7.5 inches on the ground this morning. I’d say that was within forecast ranges, even within my final 6-10 range. Not quite in my initial enthusiastic 8-12 range.

    2. We lost 2 big branches from our Japanese Cherry Tree. I didn’t notice any other issues.

    3. Shoveled the walk and drive. Not too bad shoveling.

    4. Very picturesque out there this morning.

    1. Still waiting for Logan’s total. As of last night, it was 2.5 inches. As of this morning, Southie received 7.0 inches.

      Good forecasting JPD! 😀

      1. I’m not a forecaster, just ask my wife. I looked at a bunch of maps and charts and came up with a total. I’m not a met.

        I leave the real forecasting to the Pros like TK.

        However, I don’t mind giving it a shot as many of us do here.
        That is the beauty of this blog as some of us can be “Arm Chair Mets” sometimes with no harm or foul regardless. Lots of fun.

        But you are kind.

  12. Thanks TK.

    Just reported 14.6″ here in Coventry, CT. Nice storm but incredibly heavy snow. Lots of trees, branches and power outages across town. 60% of the Town was out at one point. Kids have no school again and are now going to be going to school into the last week of June.

    Beautiful scene out there this AM though with the snow clinging to the branches:
    https://postimg.org/image/50afmw1qz/

    And thanks TK for the posting the guidance from the NWS on the snow measurements. I did clear the deck a few times after less than 6″ accumulated so I suppose my number could be a bit high but it is consistent with the spotter reports in Tolland and Stafford just to my north

  13. Got to say was easier to clean than I thought. Totally done and took about an hour. Heavy but manageable.

  15. Thanks TK. Here in Plymouth, NH, about 8″. Sort of in a shadow region here, which is fairly common for this area. Very pretty out though.

    Onto the next one… early next week. Current model consensus is somewhere between a graze and a miss. We know the usual model bias in these cases: the storm usually trends closer to the coast. I suspect in this case it may be a little more difficult to pull this next storm up the coast. Trough position and tilt at this stage doesn’t look ideal. But it’s several days away, so we’ll see. Can’t rule out a bigger hit yet.

  17. Long live TK!!!!!! Just finished up the driveway…Even with a snowblower not easy. Small and medium sized trees down all over the neighborhood.

  20. 12Z NAM places the next system in a precarious position Sunday evening at 7PM.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2018030812/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

    Current modeled 500, 300 and 300 mb upper flow would suggest a miss or a graze of some sort, however, I must say the 200mb flow shows signs of amplifying, so there is always the change this amps up enough to bring the system up the coast. IF so, could be a biggie.

    Here is the 200 mb chart.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conusncep.php?run=2018030812&var=GRDHGT_200mb&hour=084

  23. Early thoughts for next week from meteorologist John Homenuk.
    The potential does still exist for another snowstorm in the Northeast on Monday. But despite the big ridge building out west, I am underwhelmed with model and ensemble guidance. The incoming shortwave over Eastern Canada actually acts to suppress the storms move up the coast.

    2. Wonder what time it changed there? OR it was just able to accumulate faster
      once it did change. Curious.

      It is a rare event, but I have seen Big Blue decked out in SNOW, while
      there wasn’t a trace on the ground next to Rt. 138. I wish I grabbed a photo of that.

      1. I am actually 8 miles almost due North of Big Blue and we changed just a tad before 8PM, but I saw mixing off and on for
        a few hours before that, so I am thinking Big Blue could have
        changed around the 6PM hour, give or take.

        1. Very possible. I had been eyeing the approximate rain/snow line on radar using the dual pol products, and it was definitely hovering at just a few hundred feet for awhile. A couple extra hours in those heavy rates likely made a big difference, plus better ratios in general throughout the night.

  25. They are reporting 10.2 inches in Billerica.
    I made two measurements through the storm, to look at compaction issues. Would of had about 11 inches here in Billerica, but due to compaction, its around 7 inches.
    My area always seems to not get the jackpot.
    Have to say my predictions were not that good for I95 area and southeast mass. I got the easy part of 10+ correct though. I also thought the change over would happen quicker in portions of Northeast mass
    https://merrimackvalleyweather.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/untitled11.png

    some snow showers Friday night, minor accumulation?
    Storm next week, like people been alluding to could take a further north and west track than currently predicted. If we can get rid of this storm quick enough then maybe but if this storm sticks around in southeast Canada/maritimes, the storm will likely be moved south, this storm is also a rather southern energy system which are usually good hits for the mid- atlantic.

  26. All cleaned up here and 43 degrees. About 14” of wet slop near as I can figure. Gotta go find a gas station that’s open with power and fill my gas cans. Need to keep the genny running. National Grid has no idea when we get power back. Just heard Sutton and a lot of northbridge is a mess with wires and trees down. No cable or internet. I’m on Verizon LTE.

    1. 4.1 for hingham? Wonder what part of hingham that spotter lives in. I got maybe two inches.

      1. Well then you know Hingham. Perhaps it was in the Woods
        Near the S. Weymouth line not far from the Derby Shoppes.
        That area would be a world of difference say from
        Lands End. 😀

        1. I’m in West Hingham near the commuter rail stop..probably a little higher (50 ft maybe) than sea level. We got maybe 3 inches but that’s with compaction…soooo I don’t really know.

    1. 500 mb is great, however the 200mb flow is not amplified enough, so the
      whole shooting match slides ENE and out S & E of us.

      1. If that is the case, then perhaps it could put Boston over
        average for season snowfall????

        So Boston is around 41 inches for the season? something close
        to that anyway, so only need a couple of inches from the next one.

  30. Blackstone thanks for info on Sutton. We figured how to get gas fireplace going and have grill so are set. Did you say your verizon went out? We have fios. I have a meeting via phone tomorrow and suspect that won’t be happening even if power restored

  33. Light snow here, not accumulating on anything though, actually seeing the snow melt a bit. With the next system, I think areas that are in need of a break will be the ones that see something out of it. (coastal communities.)

  34. 5.9 inches at Logan but I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up a teeny bit more. The absolute final total should be confirmed sometime this afternoon.

    1. Well now they’re into that “additional 5to 15” after a bunch of people including tv mets declared them done before Feb was over.

      Never do that. Never…EVERRRRRR.

  36. I will be so happy if last nights storm sits and spins in the maritimes for days, shunting the next storm well south and east.

    2. Well, looking at the charts, that is the exact reason why it is being depicted
      as passing out South of us. BUT that could change. 😀

    3. You of all folks here sure have a right to wish for that. I sure hope your area can miss everything

    1. Funny, a wee bit of a norlun type feature depicted. The precip data only
      goes out to 72 hours, so I have no clue.

        1. You’re right. How many times have we seen that before.

          Good point Ace. Hey, How’s the baby feeling today?

  38. Vicki,
    I have charter. They said they wouldn’t do much till the power was restored. Downtown whitinsville has power. I’m out on hill street. We still dark here.

    1. Thank you. Uxbridge fire posted 38% uxbridge 83% Sutton and more in Douglas and millbury out. For Uxbridge not to expect power till tomorrow am earliest.

  41. 4 unofficial inches here in Wollaston, Quincy. We often get what Logan gets, so perhaps our compacted 4 inches is comparable to Logan’s 5.9 uncompacted inches?

  42. TENNEY Mountain has opened for the first time since 2010, runs mostly in the windmills that been placed near the ski area.

  43. We’ve been without power in Groveland since 1am or so with many downed trees and limbs…worst tree damage I’ve seen since we moved here in 2012….snowing quite hard and has been for the last 45 minutes, probably added another half inch or so of snow during that time…in total about 10-11 inches of very heavy wet snow

    1. Ditto in Sutton but still far better than coast. Neighbors said this neighborhood has never lost power. Perhaps I should be concerned they figure out the connection to me and vote me off the island

      Good luck. Do you have a source of heat ?

      1. just a fireplace, which does a pretty decent job keping temps in the low 60s…before these last two storms, we had never lost power either

  44. My 6th grade students are working on the concept of mean in data sets.

    I projected an F-6 monthly report for Boston. High temps, low temps, departures. Mean or average is on this report repeatedly.

    For the first 10 seconds that I projected, they were horrified. It was hilarious. I can understand them being overwhelmed by all the numbers and the abbreviations.

    After some scaffolding (education talk for explaining what the were looking at, along with the meanings of the abbreviations), I had them proving out some of the averages on the F-6 report.

    I either just created a few future mets or turned away about 110 from the profession, lol !!!!

    2. Awesome. Cannot think of anyone who would explain better than you

      Perhaps you can explain Pyra math to my SIL. His nine year old gave up.

        1. Also interesting that Worcester and Boston is 10″ apart in terms of total accumulation. 16.4″ vs. 6.4″

          1. This has happened many times, and is especially noted in a set-up like the one we had for this event.

  47. euro shows something way south on monday, but something forms as well for Thursday of next week.

    1. How did it get revised? Some snow slide off of the roof?
      Did you cart in some new snow?

      Did you find a break in your yardstick?

      Seriously, what happened.

      1. The initial measurement was taken quickly on the corner of the driveway when I was about to leave. When I went out there again I took another set of them on the grass and the average was 10.3, and I added the 0.2 from the early morning for the revised total. My brother about 1 mile away had 11 inches and my brother 2 miles away had 12.

        1. Makes sense. Thanks. I was giving you a hard time, but was really curious to know why the change. Not too shabby.

          Interesting storm.

          One of our cherry tree branches dropped onto the roof
          of our neighbors car. I emailed him and then talked to him. He says the car is fine, not a scratch. Nice cushion of water logged snow to break the fall as it was a good sized branch, certainly big enough to scratch the hell out of a car’s enamel.

          1. There was a whole lot of pruning done by mother nature the last week around here.

  52. Amazing how quick the temp eats away at the snow. Sun barely out and only for the last hour and parts of the deck that still had smaller piles are totally gone.

      1. Yeah. Wondering how much will be left after the weekend. I think this heavy snow melts slower no?

        1. Not really. In theory, higher water content snow can melt more slowly than lower water content of the same accumulation, because there is simply less to melt. But the high sun angle and the lack of repeated melt/freeze cycles will allow a lot of this to go by Sunday. And I think whatever falls from a series of systems between Monday and Thursday next week won’t add all that much.

  53. So counting upper level low pressure areas there are 3 snow threats next week.

    1) The wave of low pressure passing by to the south Monday, which I think is at least a graze of snow/mix.

    2) An upper low and elongated trough Tuesday which will produce snow showers.

    3) A strong upper low late Wednesday into Thursday. We have to watch this because it is the type of trough that can spawn a very quick and powerful surface low. It may end up as a fairly benign passage but cannot let guard down on that one.

    1. Three days in a row to boot. What year was the February when we got some form of snow almost every day of the month? Guessing it was 2015. That was crazy.

      1. Perhaps close enough for a graze, but I am open to anything
        around these parts. Which model will catch it first?
        😀 😀 😀

              1. Almost a big hit, but stays “just” far enough off shore. Plus I think
                Uncle GFSy is having thermal problems again.

  56. I will just say I am not believing the GFS one bit until it shows me that it can show something correct.

      1. none of the others as well, but some of the others show something in the area on the Thursday which I think have a better shot. 😉

    1. At this rate the GFS is going to be forecasting snow on July 4. There is something majorly wrong with that model.

      1. The way we’re going, Tom and I will be in school on the Fourth of July. You’re predicting a snow day on the Fourth of July? Will we have to make up that day this year or next school year?

  58. I’ll put myself in camp Euro on this next system. Just don’t think it’s the right setup to bring something up the coast. I will be watching that upper low that TK mentioned for late Wednesday into Thursday and the potential for it to spawn an additional surface low. The pattern remains active.

  60. We just got power and cable/internet back. Now I can shut the generator down.
    Thank god for the generator all day.

        1. No. But you are not thinking about it.

          Now focus. Everyone was not happy without power. Or they spent tons of money to have power for a few hours of lack of electricity

          I….on the other hand….was happy all day and enjoyed every minute because I love a sense of adventure

          Now tell me….who isn’t making sense 🙂

  61. Holy crap…just took a drive through my neighborhood and I cannot believe the number of limbs and full trees down. I was shocked. Lots of trees will have to be completely removed because they lost such large limbs. Mother Nature!

  62. We’re some of the 12z euro ensemble members north and west of operational for Monday’s system?

    1. Break down of all the runs of the 12z euro model
      No impact 40 members. Some have active ocean activity
      Small Impacts 6 ocean activity/southeast mass
      965 outside the benchmark
      967 outside Benchmark (south of Novia Scotia)
      969 outside the Benchmark (south of Novia Scotia)

      Impact 2
      973mb outside bench mark
      Large impact 1
      Travel over Nantucket 968mb
      I am going with increased wave activity with a chance of rain and snow showers.

  63. Lexington has cancelled school tomorrow due to outages, downed trees and the need for the HS to be used as a shelter. Two schools are without power. Yikes!

  64. Hope everyone enjoyed the storm . Tough few hours at the end which to us was the most challenging in Boston . Watching the bruins after a 24 hr + shift.

      1. So Backes was suspended 3 games basically for interference.

        And tonight this team cannot breathe on the other team without being called for a penalty.

          1. Well, they won anyway. Marchand, ANOTHER gwg, this one with 22 seconds left in the 3rd. And missing 3 key players. This is a very fun team to watch play.

    1. Is there a neighborhood covenant that prohibits you from cutting them down? That can often be the case in a neighborhood which stinks.

      1. Good question. I told my wife today that all of these trees should be removed. They have become a bigger hazard each year as more limbs fall off and they become weaker.

        1. You would have had to sign a covenance. Unfortunately, if neighbors are not bothered, they won’t do anything. But worth checking. Good luck

  67. For this far out the gfs, ensemble members are in two camps.
    10 out of 21 members of the gfs that I have, shows a storm some where from cape cod to outside the bench mark with a sub 985 low. The rest have weaker and suppressed to the south
    between the euro and gfs ensembles and operational runs.
    some sort of impact, from small to impactful, 19 ensembles.
    Nothing at all surpressed well out to sea/ to the south. 51 ensembles.

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