Saturday Forecast

297 Comments

9:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)
Low pressure offshore and high pressure trying to build in from the west results in a dry day but with a chilly wind and some clouds and even a few snow showers today. more sunshine and less wind Sunday with high pressure more in control. We’ve been watching the storm threat for early next week for quite some time and the current thought process is that the main storm will pass well offshore to the southeast late Monday night and Tuesday while a northern jet stream system and a connection between that and the offshore storm will be enough to produce some snow here, though not a big storm. Will detail the snow chances and eventually amounts as it gets closer. A combined larger storm offshore by Wednesday means a chilly northerly flow and upper level energy will still trigger the chance of snow showers.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. A few passing snow showers possible. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-28. NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind light NE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows from the middle to upper 20s. Highs in the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)
Upper level low pressure and offshore surface low pressure hangs on with additional wind, cold, and snow showers March 15. Pattern starts to progress with the next system bringing clouds and a threat of light precipitation March 16 and a shot of mix/snow for part of March 17, depending on its track, before wind/cold arrives March 18. Next system brings rain/snow threat March 19.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)
Progressive pattern but still active with another storm threat by late in the period.

297 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Re-Post if you don’t mind:

    JpDave says:
    March 10, 2018 at 8:20 AM
    Good morning. NWS has NOT written off the next event.

    Part of the NWS discussion Concerning Monday night/Tuesday:

    Discussion…

    For this time period, the primary focus is on how close a
    coastal/ocean storm will pass southeast of New England. There are at
    least two sources of energy at play with this scenario. One is a
    southern stream shortwave, and the other is a strong short wave
    trough dropping south in an amplified northern stream. The key
    question would appear to be whether the surface system that develops
    off the east coast in association with the southern stream
    short wave outruns or becomes captured by the northern stream
    upper trough. The consensus of models and their ensembles would
    suggest at least a glancing blow for southeast New England, but
    there is modest spread among individual models and considerable
    spread with their ensembles. Both the 00Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF have
    some ensemble runs that keep the surface center quite far
    offshore and other ensemble runs that would equate to a big
    impact for snow and wind across much of southern New England
    with a deep (sub 980 mb) surface centers passing near or even
    slightly inside of the benchmark. There seems to be a trend of
    the consensus at least modestly toward the west and suggestive
    of greater interaction between the southern and northern
    systems. In short, confidence on the surface low track for
    Monday night and Tuesday remains below average given the spread
    in ensembles. A look at the 500 mb pattern may be more revealing
    as it suggests the northern stream short wave trough will be
    quite strong and by itself produce upper level difluence over
    the area late Monday night into Tuesday with consequent lift
    across the area.

    Reply
    JpDave says:
    March 10, 2018 at 8:33 AM
    Here are some Euro charts for Tuesday Afternoon at 18Z (normally 1PM, but with DST 2PM. I believe for this run it still would be 1PM)

    https://imgur.com/a/zZdah

    The surface shows precipitation well NW of low center

    The 700MB Heights shows a norlun-like feature at that level. LIke a 700mb inverted trough.

    The 500 mb vorticity chart shows the spin in the atmosphere at that level.

    Synoptic scale vorticity is analyzed and plotted on the 500-mb chart. Vorticity is a clockwise or counterclockwise spin in the troposphere. 500-mb vorticity is also termed vertical vorticity (the spin is in relation to a vertical axis). This vorticity is caused by troughs and ridges and other embedded waves or height centers (speed .

    The 500mb Vorticity Advection leads to rising/falling pressures at the surface. Vorticity is the localized rotation of the air. Air that rotates counterclockwise, such as in … More specifically, vorticity advection is indicative of rising motion/falling pressures at the surface.

    I think this shows what the NWS meant when they said: ” A look at the 500 mb pattern may be more revealing
    as it suggests the northern stream short wave trough will be
    quite strong and by itself produce upper level difluence over
    the area late Monday night into Tuesday with consequent lift
    across the area.”

    Reply

      1. Absolutely not!
        What that is saying is it WILL SNOW!
        At the very least from the 500mb feature and perhaps even
        from the main event. Either way, we get snow, it’s just a mattter
        of how much.

      1. Even with this track we’re looking at about 6 inches give or take
        and we have to factor in the sun angle as it now appears most
        will fall during daylight hours of Tuesday.

      1. The whole 500 mb configuration is weird.
        As TK said above the interaction between the 2 upper lows etc.
        This could end up being MORE than modeled. We need
        to watch this one.

        Now watch the GFS and EURO march it straight out to sea. 😀 😀

  4. Here is the 12Z NAM Kuchera Snow from Pivotal Weather:

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031012/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Please note:

    1. This is not complete as this run still has it snowing at the end of the run
    2. Most of this falls during the daylight hours on Tuesday, so that will cut into the accumulation. It depends on intensity. So if map shows 6 inches, figure maybe 4 etc.
    We’ll have to see.
    3. This represents a significant change. Shows more phases for a closer pass. What will the other models show? Will the NAM be on an Island or lead the way to a new solution?

    2. So right now what is the timeline if such an event materializes? Early tuesday morning throughout the day tuesday?

  6. So what happened to that St. Patrick’s Day warmup for next weekend? Has it been put off until May?

  7. Thank you, TK.

    Great information.

    As I’ve said before, March 13 is another day that is familiar with storms, including the one (about 10-12 inches) when my son was born in 1984.

    Tom……I am so happy to hear you have sun. It has been a really long haul for your area. I, for one and I suspect I am not alone, am hoping that we have no impact from Tuesday’s storm.

      1. Now that I think about it, probably the Merrimack valley too (except our friend Matt), because many towns and cities up there took a beating and are a few days into not having power too.

        1. Haverhill was featured on the news last night.

          The mayor was ripping the power company, National Grid I believe.

          1. I believe so ….

            I get his reaction, at the same time, that’s a large area that was affected and these weren’t simple outages with easy fixes.

            I feel awful for the guy that seems to have run his generators inside his house and lost his life to carbon monoxide poisoning.

            1. Yes, feel for him, but at the same time
              how cold anyone be so STUPID as to
              run a generator inside the house!!
              His stupidity cost him his life. So Sad
              as it was a needless and very preventable loss.

              I can’t fathom it at all.

              1. Yeah …. if anything positive can come out of it, it’s a continued public service announcement to make sure the exhaust is properly vented outside !!! And if there’s any question at all if that’s happening, then don’t run one.

                I will never run a generator because I am kind of clueless when it comes to properly setting it up.

          2. There is a ton that goes into restoring power. I’m not sure why some folks this they just wave a magic wand. In addition to needing to wait for replacement equipment, is there are any spills, environmental tests need performing.

            That said, utilities have stretched preventive testing further apart in the name of the bottom line and that’s on them.

            As far as human error, there was enough warning to prepare. Had we lost power storm before this, I would not have been prepared. No idea what I was thinking but that would have been on me. (Thanks Sue for reminding me to prepare for this one)

            Politicians bloviating drive me nuts. I have no idea if I used that word correctly but I liked the sound 🙂 🙂 🙂

        2. We actually loss our power as our neibor who would notcut down a very old dying oak tree properly, it took 7 inches

            1. got it back the day after, Luckily it happened at 7pm and it was back on in the morning. neighborhood snowball fight came to be like old times with some NEW younger guns 🙂

    2. So far the GFS 500mb seems more amped than the NAM did, BUT
      gfs surface feature starts a bit more off shore.

  10. Do you all still have deep snow cover ?

    Our side of town received 1.5 to 2 inches of wet snow from the departing comma head. That quickly melted that afternoon.

    On the west side of town, they had closer to 3 to 3.5 inches of snow and they still have 50 to 60% snow cover of about 1-2 inches.

  15. Crap, I have to leave and run some errands before lunch. I hate leaving this.

    I’d say that the GFS is on board with at least a similar hit to NAM, if not a tad more.

    Later.

    What will the Euor say?

  17. For snowfall, if the airmass is marginal, more of this storm will be taking place in the daylight then the nighttime. So, in the coming 48 hrs, if something like this were to verify, I think we would have to incorporate that into our accumulation projections.

  18. Now down to 969mb east of Cape Cod! Even with the offshore track, a big hit for eastern MA and sizable hit for all of the rest of SNE. Northern stream interaction will help.

  19. East coast mass high tides Tuesday ….

    9:15 am (9.2 ft)
    9:50 pm (8.5 ft)

    Plenty more room to accept a storm surge, thankfully.

  23. I thought I read either on this blog or someplace else that much of Europe have their wiring underground. If this is correct, it may be time for this country to do the same.

    1. Many countries are underground for the most part, there are exceptions. it does improve the quality of the scenery thats for sure.

  24. 3 days out, early thoughts are light to moderate snowfall for most, potentially major snowfall for parts of southeastern MA, RI, CT.

    No #’s until tomorrow.

  26. I want February weather back. TKs 15 day outlook doesn’t look good for any type of spring weather. Typical though. March weather usually blows chunks.

    1. what people call spring weather does not come till April, it will come with the warm temperatures and the crappy allergies that come with it. I for one hate spring, just because of the allergies. I say skip spring and go into summer

      1. Yes I know. I’ve lived here probably longer than you’ve been alive and I’ve never seen a March that was worth a tinkers damn weather wise. Exception was 2012.

  27. mobile. in w. roxbury. flaking a bit.
    looked at ukmet. off shore with perhaps not as much precip. difficilt to tell ss precip only goes out 72 hours. looks like light to moderate.

    now the euro. probably ripping out to sea with no phasing whatsoever.

    euro will be a key, one way or the other.

    here’s hoping if is on board.

  28. Thanks TK! And might I add that for TK to say 3 days out that we have a moderate to major snowfall potential….my ears and eyes are open.

  29. If this ends up a hit, I think at least (3) 90F days in April can only be considered fair and equal compensation from Mother Nature. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. Wow nice!!. I didn’t have access to the qpf map so I underestimated. Is this model ever right? How credible is it?

  31. We may get 1 or 2 anomalously very warm days before March is over. But my March outlook from back in November was not really that good at all. Oh well.

    3. I remember 🙁
      But I never believed it really. Only one March ( 2012) I can remember was good. I always assume March weather is going to be this junk. That way I’m not disappointed.
      Another month or more.

  34. 12z Euro jumps NW as well with about 0.75″ QPF for Boston.
    Game on! Now let’s keep the trend going….

  36. 12z Euro total QPF is actually closer to 1″ for eastern MA when all is said and done, with the 0.5″ line back to Worcester and the CT/RI line. That’s warning level snows for much of eastern MA and RI:

    https://s9.postimg.org/4e4ihh4gv/Capture.jpg

    Euro followed the trend NW but is still not as far NW as the GFS…..yet. Very interested to see the EPS.

  37. So what will the provide the cold air with this storm? Besides dynamic cooling if any? There is no high to the north

    1. Plenty of cold air in place for this one. Big trough in the east with the 850mb 0C line all the way down to Georgia and low track well off shore. This one is fact looks like the coldest system of the 3 coastal storms we have had.

  38. Just drove Main Street through upton and hopkinton and 85 hopkinton, and i cannot believe the number of trees down. SIl says framingham is worst he has seen. The sad past is I think this all pales in comparison to the coasts

  39. Need that storm to track a little closer get me on the action. There is time for that to happen.

  40. Euro has joined in with the rest of them, but has it a little more off shore.
    Still a heavy light to moderate hit.

    Snow map

    https://imgur.com/a/zQGu3

    So is this shift temporary? OR is it locked in? Or shift even more Westward?

    2. Once again that snowmap does not look right at all which is why I posted the QPF map above instead. Weatherbell maps are showing 3-6″ back to the CT River and 6-10″ in eastern MA. I don’t see 1″ QPF equates to 4″ of snow. I supposed the ratios could be that low but this looks like a colder setup. I think the eurowx.com snow algorithm is whacked.

      1. Mark, I agree.

        Still waiting for a follow-up email
        from the ceo of the site. Last storm, snow map was about 25-30 % low.

    3. looking at the ensembles many are further west and stronger. on the gfs ensembles, 12 of them are around or within the benchmark with Pressure fomr 965 to 978.
      Canadian similar with about half of them closer than the operational.
      Euro they are still coming in. I will make another one of those maps late afternoon/evening when I get home. Since my last cat passed away back in October, we are getting a new member for the family 🙂

  41. I did not get thundersnow Philip. I was happy with the 13.5 inches of snow I got. The winner in CT Warren CT with 28 inches.

  42. I have a proposal for a new forecasting system called the WHW benchmark. When a post approaches 100 comments an alert goes out that a storm is almost definitely going to occur soon. This system will be almost flawless. lmao

  43. Chatting with a colleague. We are liking the idea of a moderate snowstorm in Boston on Tuesday at this point.

    1. I trust your current outlook 100%, but I ain’t’ “liking” it.

      🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  44. I haven’t seen them yet but reading that the 12z EPS looks similar to the operational run, but juicier. Likely some pretty amped members in there.

  49. TK,

    Would it be possible to give me any idea of what the weather maybe like around Easter? My family and I are going to the Berkshires that weekend. Does it look warmer or still cold and snowy?

    Thanks,
    TJ

  50. 18z NAM cranking…

    At 00z Tuesday it has the low in about the same place off the Outer Banks as the 12z run, about 4mb weaker.

    1. I’m watching as well. Clearly weaker than 12z run. We shall see. Perhaps
      it really cranks near our latitude?

  55. I’m doing the Bernie thing with the 18Z run and the 12Z run for 6 hours later.
    I keep switching back and forth. Amazing! Truly amazing.

    This run will come in OVER A FOOT Guaranteed.

  60. Here is the Instant Weather Maps Kuchera snow. Mind you still snowing some
    at 84 hours, so these could go up just a tad.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/conussfc.php?run=2018031018&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    Pivotal Weather Kuchera Snow

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031018/084/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    Surface and precip at hour 84, 6Z Wednesday or about 2 AM

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018031018/084/refcmp_ptype.us_ne.png

  61. It’s becoming apparent that more and more of an interaction between the northern and southern streams will be occurring.

    What scares me is that the models probably don’t have the full interaction down yet and that today’s increased phasing is a transition to what phasing may take place Monday night and Tuesday.

    Translation …. the western shift is likely to continue.

    1. Agree and even with this we have what a 968 mb bomb.
      What would be like if things cook more?

      sub 960mb? That would be disasterous.

      1. BIGGER HIT with more snow and more destructive wind.
        Rain on Cape and far South shore if it comes too close.
        It would have to shift a long way to get rain to Boston.
        I suppose anything is possible.

        1. Thank you. What’s keeping it all snow? Dynamic cooling? I’m not sure I see a high to the north.

  64. We need one more trend to the west and that’s it. Last thing we need is a coastal hugger or worst inside runner..

  65. I’m trying to be careful in my choice of words …….. First, I fully agree that the weather does whatever it does no matter what ……

    I just want to point out that the past 2 storms have already affected a lot people in a lot of areas in New England. I think a majority of people, when they see the trends in the TV forecasts tonight are going to be disheartened.

    I get the excitement for another hit, but I also wonder if there’s a bit of tone deafness in expressing excitement or happiness over this one, especially if it trends closer and maintains the low pressures we are seeing today. This has the potential to be the worst of the 3 and again, the weather will do what it will do, but deep down, do we really want a direct hit from a sub 970 mb system ?

    I’m certainly not mad at anyone, but just felt the need to express my viewpoint.

    2. I understand you completely. And part of me agrees 100%, however, part
      of me just can’t help it and wants to see another storm. I know, I know. My wife has been giving me a hard time about it already.

      I should be careful. Karma will bite me in the ass and drop a tree on the roof
      and punch a huge hole in it. I hear you, I hear you.

      But, in the end, we can’t control the weather, so we must stay of top of this and do the best we can with the information available to us.

      We do NOT need a closer pass. I can’t imagine what those winds would do once again.

      1. Oh, my brain is wired the same way.

        I wrote the post above and my weather enthusiasm side of my brain is having the same conflict 🙂

    3. Can totally understand how you feel Tom. I’m excited at the prospect of a lot of snow but can do without the wind and certainly don’t wish destruction upon anyone. I apologize if my posts appear insensitive to those who have been hit hard in the past week. That was not my intent.

      On a positive note, I do not think this system will be anywhere near as bad as the first storm. You don’t have the astronomical high tides, track will be farther off shore, and its moving much faster than the storm last week.

      1. I love your enthusiasm !!

        It was a general thought and like I said just above, a small part of the weather enthusiast in me wants another storm.

        Just another discussion point really.

      2. And Mark…..this is a weather blog. You are supposed to be enthusiastic. We can always move away if it gets difficult.

    4. Tom…….as always you chose your words well. I recall 2015 when I felt the very same way for a different reason. I don’t want another storm. We all know how much I enjoy loss of electricity…..but I didn’t want the last storm. I know wanting and not wanting makes no difference. But I completely understand your comment and my heart aches for so many people who are still facing a disaster.

  66. Some schools are up to 7 snow days already. Looks like Tuesday will be 8. Plus the lost time at work. I suspect Tuesday will be short handed at work again. I’m already behind on several things so another lost day sure won’t do me much good 🙁

    1. I am behind at work too. These storms, and the model watching that precedes them, are killing my productivity.

      1. I don’t waste time model watching. Not that interested. Just have a ton of stuff to do lab work wise and if me and my guys can’t get to work, it puts me further behind. Working from home isn’t an option when you run lab equipment to generate data.

        1. It can be a bad habit, or a good habit, depending on one’s perspective and time available. 😉

          I look at almost every run of every model, but most people know my practice there is more like flipping through a catalog or an advertising flyer to see what’s there. The true analysis doesn’t really happen until I feel it’s necessary.

  67. A couple notes about the NAM…

    18z (which has some impact but not as great as it once did).
    The NAM’s forecast accuracy diminishes rapidly after 48 hours.
    The NAM also chugged out astronomical snowfall totals for both previous storms at about the same range which were off by 10 to 36 inches. That’s pretty poor computer forecasting.

  68. I was just about say that this is around the time that Debbie Downer steps in and puts a damper on things……

    1. More like, the realist. None of those NAM numbers really ever verify this far out. And the reason is, the model sucks out there… 😉

      1. I got it…..but, the NAM has a foot for Boston. You don’t think that has a chance of verifying with a storm that potent and closer track?

        1. I think it has a chance of verifying, but as far as model forecasts go, that NAM is still a very untrustable model at this range.

          Even computer models can be “right for the wrong reason”.

  69. I’ve seen snowier winters with less school days and work missed. Just seems like a lot of the events this winter have come early mornings on work/school days.

    1. It’s all in the timing. You also had an issue with a whole lot of cancellations this Wednesday, based on weather app forecasts, instead of actual live meteorologists who adamantly expressed that the daytime hours of Wednesday would see just wet roads during school hours. But since the weather apps showed snowflakes, all bets were off.

      1. Yea, my kids school cancelled Wednesday on Tuesday evening. Pretty ridiculous. I actually talked to the principal on Tuesday and told him that I had very reliable weather info the Wed would be fine. Initially he was going to do a half day, but cancelled late Tuesday due to “New information”. Probably his weather app

        1. I can guarantee you it was a weather app.

          I hear it everywhere. “But my phone said….” I just can’t get anyone to understand how bad those are.

          1. I’d be rather upset if they were cancelling school because of a weather app. I’d be even more upset if a parent called and asked them to reconsider

            The snow had started here and the roads were wet before the elementary bus would have arrived here. We saw how quickly ice forms on the roads a couple of months ago. School doesn’t end with the final bell. It ends when the final student gets off the bus and the driver is safe. There was a fine line. They made the right call.

            1. The difference between this one and that was was quite large though. The temperatures were already below freezing then, and forecast to drop further.

              For this event, the temperatures were going to be above freezing into the evening with much much warmer surfaces to start.

              It was different for elevated areas in the central parts of the state, but my commentary was geared toward the balance of lower elevations east of there. There are always going to be exceptions, but that’s why these things are done on a city by city or town by town basis.

            2. Should have had school, period. Nobody else canceled. A few had a half day.

              And I’m not just any parent. I’m on the school board. When this winter is in the books the board and the principal are going to have a conversation. There’s other reasons he cancelled school which had squat to do with the weather here that I won’t post.

              1. Maybe your kids. I believe most out here had early release. As I said, the temps were dropping when my grandson would have gotten off the bus.

                If there are other reasons, then your initial comment was misleading. And probably a weather app??

      1. It often depicts precipitation that won’t be hitting the ground as precipitation that is.

  73. 18z GFS is not further east, it actually ends up in an almost identical position SE of the benchmark as 12z. It is however about 5mb weaker than 12z.

  74. All you are seeing today with the model runs is how they interact the 2 streams.

    Trends are not always correct. So keep that in mind.

    That saying “the trend is your friend” is bullshit about 30% of the time, at least.

  75. If/when you look at NWS’s snow forecast maps, keep in mind that we are 3 calendar days away from this. The low ends of 0 and high ends of 11-12 are NORMAL. The “expected” of mainly 3-4 inches reflects their early ideas of a light to moderate event, taking everything into account. That’s really all there is to know at this point.

    Anything else is extraneous.

  76. My grandson is doing a report on CT. Any fun people from CT or highlights off the beaten path are greatly appreciated.

    2. Here’s one for you not far from us. Have him look up Roseland Cottage in Woodstock. My younger years were spent in that part of the state. Off the path.

  77. Remember this is also march, storms that would be decent hits in January are marginal at best in March in terms of snowfall.

    1. Depends. If it is a light to moderate snowfall during daytime hours then yes, you’re not going to get the accumulation. If the precip intensity is there or the snow occurs during nighttime, it doesn’t matter a whole lot.

  79. To TK:

    I appreciate your comment on “the trend is your friend.” It is so over-used. there is a TV met who I respect who uses it over and over again. Ugh!!

    1. There are definitely differences depending on what particular thing you’re trying to forecast, and while the “trend rule” is probably decent greater than half of the time it is by no means automatic.

      I heard a TV met yesterday say (regarding the upcoming threat) “I’m thinking 4-6 inches right now, but I’m not going to put down any numbers on this thing yet.” Ah, so 4 and 6 are not numbers. I guess I missed the memo.

  80. I was watching the Paralymic Games from South Korea today and one of the biathlon skiers described the snow as “mashed-potato-y”. Love it! 🙂

    1. I really like the Paralympic games, I know someone who thought she would never be able to ski again after a drunk trucker struck her car up in NH on her way back home from a ski competition. She now skies with only one leg and kick my back side in a race.

    1. JJ these are great. He comes downstairs each night to “chat” with nana so we read these together. He was particularly interested in all three types of rocks and the dinosaur tracks. He asked me to say thank you.

    2. That’s a cool list. That 10% forested stat is cool. I sometimes forget that New England was largely stripped of all its trees at one point. Mount monadanock for example has a bare top. And not because it has a treeline but because it never recovered from being deforested back in the day. Erosion from it etc…

  82. Vicki I am glad I could help. There were things on that list I didn’t even know and I have lived here in CT all my life. It was fun for me to read.

    1. That makes it doubly special. I always loved kids projects because I learn a ton too!! Thank you again!

    2. Protip: you can upload stuff on imgur as “hidden” so that it doesn’t show up in random public imgur feeds lol. The last time you made a graphic like this someone commented that you were marking where you buried models at sea. Keeping your posts hidden means you avoid randos like that trying to troll.

        1. I imagine the fun begins tomorrow, but I am wondering
          who dives in tonight. Does anyone know if Barry is on tonight? I really don’t want to watch P.G. Or Wankum either. I loathe them both.

          1. I would assume Barry is on morning duty so whatever the Euro says will be our snow amounts. 😉

            I’m not a Waunkum fan either but I prefer him over PG. Hopefully Harvey will carry us for the week as always. 🙂

  85. Last evening Pete mentioned that March could end quite cold. I would be curious how TK feels about that. I was looking forward to mild, dry second half but I guess that is now by the boards?

  87. Doesn’t get its act together until later and a bit further east. Still a decent hit for eastern areas but nothing like 18z.

  90. 00z RPM, RGEM, and GGEM also solid hits.

    Short is the NAM, good 00z suite so far. We’ll see if the Euro stays the course…

          1. My wife has been ill. Was playing cards with her and then we watched a movie. I don’t dump her
            for the weather.

            But I am here. I see all of what you have posted.
            Jury is still out. Beware of the 3km NAM.

            😀

  92. No, the milder/drier period for later March is not “by the boards”, it is still a valid possibility. When TV guys say “the rest of the month” regarding things, it’s in reaction to one GFS run they see before a broadcast, not really any serious medium range forecasting. I’ve been around long enough to pick that out with no issue whatsoever. It’s a common practice in TV media these days.

    Same guys called an end to the snow season in late February when the GFS had mild weather and no snow for the area for the first 15 days of March. Oops.

    Someday these folks will learn what not to do … maybe.

  96. euro operational is weaker than half of its ensembles.
    25 out of 50 show a storm within the benchmark, with sub 970mbs
    22 out of 50 shows a storm outside the benchmark, with around 970 and below. Decent hit on many of them.
    2 over 975 outside bench mark.
    gfs 7 members inside or on Benchmark sub 970.
    5 members inside or on bench mark 970 to 980
    the rest are outside the bench mark around 970.
    Canadian of what I can see
    17 members within or around Benchmark sub 975mb
    7 members outside bench mark
    I am not going to be able to post those maps like I been doing as I am heading on up to Loon MTN 😀 for the first family trip to the MTN since the 2016 season. been skiing with all of them, but first time since then that everyone is going at the same time 🙂

  98. Get that storm to move a little further west. I am really on the western edge now with 2-3 inches for my area.

    1. I think if you got into the same amounts expected here in Boston, I would end up with snow to rain, and perhaps a lot of it. Not sure of course.

  99. It’s your turn with this one. I was happy to say a one of these Nor’easter’s gave me a good snowfall. I can’t be greedy.

  101. JPD I am upset to learn that Mrs OS is still ill. It’s been a long time. Not sure why but so many have had what normally lasts a week-ish last weeks to months this year. Please tell her we are all hoping she is better soon.

    1. We’re not sure what is going on. She had a CAT scan that confirmed a stubborn kidney stone that just wouldn’t move. It has moved now, reducing the pain, but
      she is still sick. Scary thing, her doc said the Stone could be contributing to her
      symptoms, whatever that means.

      Thank you.

  102. Get well wishes for Mrs. OS!!

    Today’s update will take place during the early part of the 10AM hour. Out with mom for a bit. 🙂

  103. Good morning…
    Can someone give a time of when snow might breakout in the Taunton area Monday night?
    Monday night 6 pm? Midnight? Early Tuesday morning?

    Feel better real soon, Mrs. OS!

    Thanks, amigos…

      1. Good for him. Do I recall you didn’t have snowdays as a senior

        I was thinking about the comment by blackstone (IIRC) that we have had a lot of snow days considering the snow amounts are not astronomical. I know several of us have said we have had days where we may have set records for the last amount of snow in the longest period of time. Interesting that, even with lower snow amounts and the largest accumulation here on a weekend, the storms have timed themselves so that schools have had to cancel.

      2. I think Tk’s will be lower. More like 3-6 or 4-8, imho. 😀
        He tends to be conservative starting out and adjusts as needed.
        Based on what I have seen this morning and adjusting
        for Sun Angle, my early early call would be 6-10, again subject to
        adjustments as needed.

  111. Marc,
    re: Americanwx.com links

    Sometimes these subscription sites don’t allow direct links. Perhaps it is another issue, I don’t know.

    maybe you should try what you do with our convective development subscription site.
    Save a copy of the image and use Imgur.com to obtain the link. Just a thought.

    1. They work 90% of the time but for whatever reason when I try to post them from my phone, it’s hit or miss and the link breaks or has to be copied into the browser. Perhaps it’s a word press issue.

      1. Could be. I always have trouble posting from my phone.
        Outstanding effort though and it is much appreciated.

  112. 6-10 for Boston down through the south shore is that correct . Do we have a start and finish time very big appointment in Boston at 10 Wednesday . Also is it heavy

    1. Late tomorrow night into Tuesday afternoon. The snow will not be as heavy as last storm. Temp profiles are colder. Snow ratios will range from 10:1 south shore to 15:1 to the north and west of Boston.

      1. You don’t it. You’re there. I am seeing 19 inches for Holden and
        it’s not quite done. May add an inch or 2.

          1. I need it west another 30 miles or so although I’ll take my 10” and run with it. Perhaps I could get in on one of those outer deformation bands if that track verified

          2. I’m looking for 25 more miles for insurance for this not to get booted. It’s so close when you look at the 500mb. Give me one more big storm then let spring come on in.

  120. Now we’re onto the GFS with the CMC tagging along.
    Then Ukmet
    Then Euro, which we don’t see until 2:30 to 3PM.

  122. NAM always seems to do one of these insane prolific runs around 36 hours out. That said, it’s snow projection last storm wasn’t half bad. If anything, it was low on some of the totals that verified in NJ and western New England

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