Sunday Forecast

350 Comments

10:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)
Today provides a break in the harsh weather that has been March so far, as high pressure dominates, but don’t get used to it. Here comes another storm threat. As described yesterday, this next threat will be comprised of a complex set-up with a developing coastal / ocean storm in the subtropical jet stream off the Mid Atlantic, and a strong disturbances coming eastward from the Great Lakes associated with the polar jet stream, and a trough of low pressure connecting the two, as if they are extending their arms to start an atmospheric dance. Although they will not be fully joined until beyond the region, the intensification of the southern stream system system and its northward turn, as well as the development of moisture between the two system, will likely be enough to bring a significant snowfall on Tuesday. Upper level low pressure and offshore surface low pressure will bring blustery, chilly March weather with a snow shower threat midweek.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-30. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind light NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing late. Lows 24-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast with snow, but possibly mix/rain for a time immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands. Early call accumulations a widespread 4 to 8 inches except under 4 inches immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands. Highs 31-39. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the upper 20s. Highs in the upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)
A more progressive pattern evolves during this period with the threat of light precipitation as warm air tries to move back in March 16, but probably fails as low pressure passes over or south of the region with a rain/mix/snow threat to start March 17 then windy/colder later that day and March 18. Next system brings rain/snow threat March 19 for the final day of winter, with clearing to follow, if current timing holds, for the Vernal Equinox on March 20.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 21-25)
Quick warm-up early in the period, then another storm threat followed by a shot of cooler air late in the period.

350 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  3. Question for TK: we see so many of these models being wrong so much of the time. Given this, who uses them, why are they even in existence, and why can’t they be fixed?

  4. The Nam had about 1/2 the QPF of the GFS at 6Z. You watch, GFS will probably come in half of the NAM at 12Z. They seem to trade places sometimes.

  6. I know Arod answered saying late Monday night but a more close time are we looking at say well after midnight on Monday night and ending before dinner time on Tuesday.

  8. When this thing starts Monday night, it will be wet snow with low ratios, however,
    as it gets cranking the colder air becomes entrenched and ratios go up to 12 or 13 to 1.
    Point being, it will be cranking so much and a drier snow during the day Tuesday, that
    I do not think the sun angle will reduce accumulations much at all. Just my thought.
    Of during the night won’t be an issue either.

  9. Time frame: 10PM to 1AM start, south to north. 4PM to 8PM end, southwest to northeast.

  10. Man these damn things just won’t stay south.

    This is all on me for having a house framed. So if you like snow, thank me…if you hate snow, you’ll never find me ha.

    1. In the next 3 hours, adjusted to about the same position as the NAM. Still 4-6 mb less intense so far.

  19. Enjoy snow lovers in eastern New England. Unless some shift to the west comes I am getting grazed with a couple inches of snow.

    1. Geez, kind of bailed out to the East. Still nice event, but Well, well short of
      the NAM. Dose of reality, perhaps.

      AS of this moment, I am adjusted my totals up to 8-12 inches.

      I reserve the right to continue to adjust up or down. 😀

      1. That’s why i’m looking for 25 mile insurance to the west. It’s so close to losing the grip of the trough to the west.

      1. Actually I think the model has an attempt through programming to adjust ratios based on atmospheric profile.

        1. Oh I understand that. Just wish I knew what their algorithm is. Fwiw, often times it under estimates
          snow totals. Much like the 3km NAM Ferrier totals.

  24. If we had a mid-winter type high to the north, then a big westward jog wouldn’t matter that much but even as it is, that rain/snow line invades lower SE MA for a time before collapsing. Too much to the west would likely easily bring it to Boston and a bit beyond, then there would be the haves/have nots in the opposite direction.

    I believe April 6-7, 1982 was for everyone IIRC for example. 🙂

    1. Another thing..is Crush the buzzword this year? Hear it all over the place. This blog especially (“crush job!”). Guess Bomb wore out?

    2. That map displayed in the 3KM NAM. He seems to value that information, but translation: I’M Waiting for the F’ing Euro!

      1. I believe his commentary calls for higher accumulation than the Accu map he shows and, in fact, critiques.

        He says “this is a blizzard for Eastern NE. 1-2 feet in Maine might reach to south to Boston. This storm is bigger than you think.”

        “Rayno Rule is in effect. If you think you are getting 6-12, you will get 12-18”

  29. NWS thinks we might be getting 10 t0 15 snow ratios.
    Here is their discussion on that

    Keep in mind since it is colder aloft than with last storm, consistency of snow will not be nearly as wet, in fact this looks like snow to water ratios of 10 to 15:1 (instead of 5 to 8:1). This should limit damage to trees and wires.

    1. How do you get ratios that night with temperatures only in the lower 30’s? Do other factors play besides surface temperature? Maybe it’s colder upstairs? You would think it’s heavy wet snow since it will be around 33 32

      2. It has to do with the temperature where the snow forms, not the temperature of the air at the surface. It will very cold aloft.

      3. Can be high ratio snow with temps in the 30s. Key is temperature
        in the snow growth zone and they will be colder this time around. 😀

  30. Been snowing all day great loon. Saw some of the medals are agreeing with the stronger euro ensemble members

  31. SREF HRDPS brings 6 plus inches to all of SNE. Hoping for this to move a little bit further west.

  35. Thanks tk and jpdave for the explanation about the ratios. I wonder if someone will get 2 feet out of this, although this storm doesn’t seem to stall or really slow down so it might be hard but I could be wrong

  38. The coolers I had on the deck were emptied and food put back in fridge, but lazy me left them on deck. I jut went out to empty what I figured would be melted ice and it is a frozen block at the bottom of each. I figure I’m off to a good base just in case power goes out again. I left the gazillion bags of frozen water in the freezer also.

    Tom, don’t tell anyone, but this is my way of jinxing the storm so it does not materialize…..at least along the coast.

  39. If this is going to late Tuesday night and starts at say 10 Monday nights we may need to cancel my wife’s very important appointment in Boston on Wednesday as I still may be at Wednesday morning

    1. Ugh. Can you get a hotel room? Also, We ended up taking a driving service to multiple appointments Mac had Feb 2015. It was expensive but well worth the cost.

      1. If it stops in Boston at 8 Tuesday I shouid be home sometime wee hrs of Wednesday 4 Tuesday would be better .

          2. Had friends who did snow removal when younger and I’d often ride with them.

            Maybe reserve a room if cancellation can be same day. Just a thought. I know how critical some appointments can be. Good luck

  40. Here is the 12Z UKMENT accumulation map in mm.

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_qc_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif

    This shows about 30mm in Boston and 25 mm just to the West.

    30 mm = 1.18 inch
    24 mm = .98 inch

    So with the Ukmet with the exepected ratios are very close to one foot in the Boston
    Area.

    Here is the CMC Kuchera snow from pivotal weather

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018031112/078/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    ANd the RDPS Kuchera snow through 48 hours.

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018031112/048/snku_acc.us_ne.png

    RDPS indicating BIGGER HIT than the GDPS or CMC.

      1. They usually swear by the Euro which is more offshore and lower in snow totals, so we’ll see what they do.

      1. Caveat.
        Mark and I have both noticed that these totals tend to be
        25-30% low. Those should be reading 6-7 inches.

      2. It’s not final that will change again to up or down I’m sure . Even if it held 4, 5, 6 or whatever in March is good .

    3. I keep going back to my earlier thought that we need it more west so that trough doesn’t just sling it away. Need some 25-50 mile insurance!

  44. Ok, so now the almighty Euro has spoken.
    Makes TK’s 4-8 look pretty good, doesn’t it.
    See why he’s slow to move to the big numbers.

    Frankly, I am not sure what to make of it.

    It’s close to the NAM’s wheelhouse, so I don’t know how you totally
    toss the 3KM NAM. The RDPS is usually not too bad, even if it’s big brother
    the GDPS shits the bed all of the time.
    Yet the Euro clearly has a different solution, but the Euro is usually better
    more hours out than this.

    What does one do? Mix them all in a blender and take what pours out?

    At this point, I’d blend my 2 early calls of 6-10 and 8-12 and just call it 6-12.
    And hope that the Euro is at least a little off. Plus the Euro still shows
    .7 inch qpf. Yeah, I’m comfortable with 6-12 even after the Euro.

    Here is the qpf map:

    https://imgur.com/a/tSHih

  46. I can’t stop laughing at channel 4s map on FB page

    Wording starts with this is a preminary prediction! Exclamation point included

    Wording on map says

    Preliminary prediction
    POTENTIAL snowfall

    Three times making it very clear

    2. Does this possibly mean that I should make preliminary preparations to potentially purchase the milk and bread?!

  47. I am making a preliminary announcement about possibly putting a preliminary forecast preliminarily posted with preliminary potential snowfall, if I can put it past the peepers. But I’m worried it may be premature…

    2. I have a premonition your preliminary potential numbers may potentially possibly stick…and primarily predicate the correct numbers potentially.

  49. NWS at 3:04 PM updated their Winter Storm Watch…. Going with 6-12 now.

    Excerpt here:

    …WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 to 12
    inches, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, are possible.

    * WHERE…Portions of northern Connecticut, western, central,
    eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, as well as all of Rhode
    Island.

    * WHEN…Monday evening through Tuesday evening.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel could be very difficult to near
    impossible, including during the morning commute on Tuesday.
    Damage to trees and power lines is possible as snow will be
    accompanied with strong to damaging winds, especially over
    southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Significant reductions
    in visibility are possible.

    1. Interesting. He is either an awfully young enthusiast OR that is this guy’s
      son. It that photo is that person now, then how can you take it seriously.

        1. Pretty impressive for a 16 year old. Although, I often believe that the younger generation has a lot more on the ball than the older…especially recently.

  54. From Bernie Rayno
    Lots of questions pertaining to EURO.I am thinking EURO track is too far E & there will be more precip on western side than shown.Having said that, I absolutely can see Euro solution with only glancing blow for Bos,worst of storm in Maine.take a deep breath,end game is far away

  56. NWS’s updated low end and high end snow amounts show a 24 inch spread for Bedford MA. 😉

  57. The funny thing about the need to use the words preliminary and potential and possible, etc. is people create the need….much like regulation. We are own worst enemies.

  58. Thoughts on progress of the NAM. So far it is a bit more East
    than at the same time on the 12Z run. We shall see what happens.
    Out to hour 19.

          1. Ok fair enough, but I see differences there
            as well, but they are more pronounced on the
            surface reflection.

  62. This 18Z NAM is a totally different run. Snow totals will be way down.
    I think it received the memo from the Euro.

  64. It’s more to the East, but the precip has expanded more West and North.
    Oh well. Let me sit back and see where it ends up.

  65. This watching is futile. After all this baloney, it ends up at a higher latitude a bit
    West of where it was for the 12Z run.

  69. Thanks, TK.

    I blew it on the storm Wednesday night. Snow definitely stuck around longer than I thought it would. Thursday morning at 9am I measured 4.8 inches in Back Bay and that was compacted (so my guess is that around 6 inches fell). Still snow on tree limbs this morning. Shows you how relatively cold it’s been. I dare not make any predictions for the upcoming storm.

    1. Nice snowfall, Joshua. If you don’t mind, would you predict a lot. That way maybe we can shoo it away…at least we could keep it inland 😉

      You had just a bit less than we. But our snow is melting quickly. Trees have been bare for a while ad have rooftops. Grass is showing through on the lawn. The sledding hill in the backyard is bare.

      1. A shitlod can still go wrong here. Let’s see about GFS.

        So far, it’s awesome eye candy.

        Sticking with 6-12 still.

        1. Agree, Wouldn’t change that just yet. However,this is something to monitor. Waiting on 3KM.

          Let’s see GFS

            1. Dude, you had me sweating bullets when I was watching the 500MB. I kept thinking to myself, what the hell is OS worked up about. Each frame looked ok to me compared to 12Z. LOL

              1. Seriously, if you want go back and carefully examine the surface. It was freaking me out for awhile.
                And then all hell broke loose and the surface ended up West of the 12Z run. Crazy.

                It’s still fun doing, even if we drive ourselves loony.

    1. I think it’s safe to say the south shore is probably in the sweet spot almost no matter what.

        3. Yeah..not looking forward to this one. Usually I get ramped up even if it’s only a day before…not this time.

  75. Nws discussion latest headlines.
    Potent snow storm, potential blizzard Monday night into Tuesday – Moderate to heavy snow, some locations seeing upwards of a foot perhaps two feet, 1-3″/hr snowfall rates, plus winds could yield blizzard conditions with visibility less than a quarter of a mile

    They even mentioned thundersnow. I am trying not to get too excited because of the euro

    1. You sound as bad as I do. 😀 😀 😀

      I have a feeling that tonight’s Euro shows a significant increase in the snow
      totals. We shall see.

  77. Vicki, I’ve heard from several `inland’ people who said that the snow had more or less melted (at least from lawns). But, I must say that in Boston quite a bit of snow stuck around until today. It’s been cold here, especially Friday and Saturday afternoon.

  80. I’m hoping this will be the last big event of the season . Looks like we all have white landscape this St pats day .

    1. Check your Facebook messages SSK. I sent you a friend request and told you who I was but I don’t think you saw it or knew it was me

  82. I’m surprised by the NWS snow map …..

    Joaquin
    Sandy
    Isaac
    Irma (not once showing up the east coast)
    And all the times the euro sees that one specific atmospheric thing it takes all the other models another 36-48 hrs to see.

    And they’ve pretty much gone NAM/GFS blend ???

    If I only knew how to post a mouth wide open emoji.

      1. WOW …….

        Those will be coming down.

        In addition ….. Daylight event too near the solstice and all that snow ?????

  84. As to alluded to why tv stations shouldn’t throw the high numbers right away.
    GfS is east. What a bummer. Why do these models tease us lol. I have a feeling this will trend more east

  85. To support my comment earlier….Millbury-Sutton Chronicle picked up on Barry’s map and no one commenting is noting the words Preliminary or Potential. We truly are an amazing species.

  86. From Bernie:

    One thing I have seen in my 27 years of forecasting.the EURO 500 mb fcst is usually rock solid. However, it does have its flaws like any model. Looking at the 500 mb,I think the S Piece is getting pushed too far east to fast (2am tue) & therefore storm is farther W than shown.

    1. Sue – there you are – we need the hair dryer brigade to chase this thing away. As always, wine will be served while we hold the dryers 🙂

      1. Vicki, Sue: I’m with you; I’ll bring my hair dryer and a bottle of red. Fingers crossed this thing just goes away.

          1. I’m doing everything I know how–hair dryer, check. Ingredients for quiche–check. Shovel out on the front steps–check. Shoveling clothes (fisherman knit sweater, ugly scarf and baseball cap)–check. Completely prepared so this thing can blow out to sea.

            1. Hahahaha…..me too. Loss of power but preserve food…check. Stock up on vermouth (which should have gone first) … check. Candles at the ready…check. Shovel on deck to get to grill….check. Swedish gloves out and dried from last storm…check.

              We need to find Sue though??

      2. Sorry one more storm hopeful this gives good snow, minus the very strong winds. I understand those who live on the coast my myself and my brothers want to go skiing wednesday and next weekend. Wednesday only works if there is enough ability to close school so my youngest brother can go

  87. My take on the storm, just catching up from a fun weekend at Northeast Storm Conference: There are a lot of people currently in 12-18″ ranges on this storm who will be in 2-4″ ranges tomorrow. East it goes.

      1. It was a great time. No promises on the storm! I’ll defer to TK and I would bet he’s not changing his numbers at this time, which would leave him below the TV mets but above me 😉

  88. Storms this time of year- especially daytime ones like this mostly looks to be- are often “all or nothing”. If you’re not in the heavy bands of precip, you’re not overcoming the Sun. And I have serious doubts about most of SNE getting into any heavy bands.

    1. I love your forecasts but this time I don’t know I think Boston/ south will have 0 issues during the day .

      1. Going out on a limb and a hunch here. This is a very complex storm evolution, more so than any others this winter, and the models are not handling it well. If I’m wrong, I’ll look pretty silly, but I would bet under 6 for Boston. We’ll see though.

  89. Harvey saying sensible approach is 8-12 right now with the understanding that it could and the key word is could go up higher . He presented an outstanding forecast . You know it’s the real deal when the chief is called in during the weekends. That 8-12 is from Boston right down here along the south shore . I think we are going to cancel my wife’s appointment on Wednesday as I just can’t get that stop time on Tuesday it’s looking like Tuesday night

    1. I don’t envy them. They know as well as I how fine the line will be in this event between 12″+ and 4″ or less. I really don’t know a good way to communicate that.

  91. It’s pretty sad in media when a teenager’s FB page forecast of 24+ with major blizzard is being shared and believed in the comments of a FB page by a major TV station. HAHAHAHA!

      1. Just that there’s still a chance this goes from “blizzard” to pretty innocuous winter weather advisory.

        I’m still sticking to 6-12 Worcester east but the public already has blizzard in their heads.

        1. The public is completely ignoring the wording. And you are correct

          Eric so far agrees with your numbers.

    2. You got that right. I do think we get that 8-12” Harvey has on at 6. If it stays east, I don’t see how it tops out higher than that. Further east and I could see barely 3-4”

    3. And then some.

      WxWatcher’s comment about all or nothing is so apropos.

      I looked at the RDPS and the GFS and got sick to me stomach.

      Plus the Euro. Something ain’t right here. TOO close to the event to
      have this kind of model divergence.

  93. Just had a coworker email me about 18″ of snow coming central mass with a blizzard.

    And there you go…..

  95. My local city patch posted on Facebook the NWS snow map and added 12 to 24 inches in their headline. This is how everybody gets misinformed and then blame the meteorologists

    2. I have posted to them repeatedly and they just continue. It is completely irresponsible. Maybe if we all posted to our local patch

  96. Whenever I am explaining what a hard job forecasters have I always use my ripple in the water analogy. Imagine you and I are by a serene lake. I take a pebble and skip it across the water. Now imagine I expected you to know how many ripples would be made. Which direction those ripples would go. Where those ripples would be later. How those ripples would react to other ripples fish are making. What effect the ripples have on the temperature surrounding them. etc. etc. – then you might have some appreciation of how amazing it is that forecasters even know it’s *going* to snow days out and maybe appreciate how calculating how much snow we get is difficult.

  97. I have always liked the NAM, but I have seen it dead wrong before and I have
    seen it correct going against the others.

    How the bleep is anyone to know whether it is correct this time or not?
    Answer: We don’t!!

    Take a look at the RDPS.

    It has a deep low, 968 mb with hardly any precipitation? Does that sound correct?

    http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018031118/045/prateptype.us_ne.png

    I think we could find flaws in all of them.

    I smell a rat! A big disgusting fowl smelling putrid rat!

    I told my wife at dinner that previously I thought my office would be closed
    on Tuesday but then I now think it will be open.

    12-18 inches ain’t happening.

    1. I’m not even liking my 6-12 inches now. That “may” have to come back down.
      I’ll make another adjustment, if needed, tomorrow AM or perhaps tonight after
      I have a look at the GFS.

      1. Way to early for that comment . You will get your snow but at least wait till you see tomorrow s runs

        1. I haven’t changed anything at this point. Just open to the fact that I might have to do just that. I “may” do it later tonight OR wait for Euro and do in the AM. 😀

          Encouraged some with the HRDPS.

  98. I for one hope it continues east. Don’t need another lost day st work. Too much going on and deadlines won’t get made.

  99. I think the word blizzard has taken on a life of its own. People understand it to be an indication of the severity of a storm, when in fact, it is a descriptor with a precise but not all that meaningful a definition. I mean, if the wind speed is slight too low, or the visibility not low enough, conditions could just miss the definition of a blizzard, but is that useful information? It could still be horrible outside and even dangerous without the blizzard distinction.

    Just my non-meteorologist 2 cents…

  100. I realize tomorrow evening is the night before whatever happens but there’s a fair chance I’m going to be away from the blog for about 4 or 5 hours starting at 7PM. I’ll have everything updated as good as I can before that.

  102. The weather is always a great subject for fake news, misinterpretation, and misunderstanding. Throwing out words like blizzard, nor’easter, and feet of snow is good for attention-getting. For the purists and the fact-based types such as myself, it is sometimes painful, but there is probably no escaping it.

    1. thing is I think someone does see blizzard conditions, now if it happens for 3 hours is a different story.

  104. Probably one of the best days skiing in a long time for me. My ankles did not feel like a needle was going into the sides. Mix of equipment adjustments and a long time of healing still need one of the boots adjusted a little bit, but that will hopefully come Wednesday. Overall a great day at loon as it did not stop snowing all day, there was that nice little layer of snow each time we went back up.

    In terms of the storm.
    1. chance of Blizzard conditions eastern Mass. Best chance Southeast Mass.
    2. Moderate to heavy snowfall.
    3. Even with the further out to sea solution, still large enough for Blizzard conditions for southshore/cape and islands. with a moderate snowfall for Eastern areas. Gives more snow for the cape and islands.
    4. This is march, even with the closer track, I feel like we will see a snow/rain line form. This will also mean that only the moderate to heavy bands will accumulate mid day. Most accumulation would probably occur over Monday night/Tuesday morning, maybe late afternoon depending on when the heaviest precip ends. I will have maps out soon of what I think, this one is hard.

    1. not sure who has the ensembles of the EURO and GFS but they have not seemed to really of backed down. many still show a very potent storm.

  105. 21Z SREF just starting to come it. It takes a good while to complete.
    I wonder IF it got the memo or not?

  107. A selection of model forecast from 18z for Boston’s snowfall…

    RPM: 4.2″
    ECMWF: 4.5″
    GFS: 5.9″
    NAM: 20.8″

    The NAM was obviously hit in the thumb by a hammer.

  108. NWS going all out this evening for sure. It will be interesting as to what info comes out in the morning.

    Barry mentioned this morning that more of these storms are waiting in the pipeline but the impression I get from the other mets and NWS this evening is for moderation ahead at least for next weekend. What are your thoughts TK?

    1. The blocking pattern breaks down. Future storms should be taking place in a progressive, unblocked pattern, for a while.

      1. Love how it’s a blocking pattern but it doesn’t block any storm ha. I get it…but when you hear blocking it sounds like it would shield you ha.

        1. It’s blocking all of them. This particular blocking pattern is preventing them from tracking north of New England and through eastern Canada and the Maritimes and forcing them south of New England where they blow up off the coast, sometimes do a loop or 2, and then head out.

  111. I do not trust any of these models.
    Not looking at snowfall but, gfs ensembles
    10 ensembles Wind gusts of 30+ all of eastern mass. Blizzard conditions
    11 ensembles. Wind gusts of 30+ for Southeast Mass including Boston. coastal areas. Blizzard conditions.
    All of them are below 972mb. OH NO 50/50 shot……
    EURO.
    15 ensemble members winds gusts of 30+ all eastern mass. Blizzard conditions
    16 ensemble members wind gusts 30+ Southeast Mass including Boston, coastal areas. Blizzard conditions.
    11 members smaller hit, with light/moderate hit cape and islands
    8. Out to sea little impact. Some wind on the cape and islands possible.
    Canadian. Blizzard conditions southeast Mass, coastal areas.
    so to put all of those together.
    25 severe hit, with Blizzard conditions all of EAstern mass. heavy snow
    28 Blizzard for Southeast Mass, heavy snow
    19 smaller hit. Cape and island event or no impact.

    so in conclusion, Why should I trust the models lol.

    1. oh and then the nams that should be included with the severe hit.
      Also the canadian ensemble spread. Most further northwest.

      we shall see what happens.
      I am rather confident about blizzard conditions in Southeast mass with the jackpot happening some where in interior southeast mass.

      1. of what I can make out 13 of the canadian ensemble members severe hit with blizzard conditions. so 38 severe hit blizzard conditions Eastern Mass.
        28 southeast mass Blizzard conditions
        19 smaller hit.

  112. NAM still delivers a powerful snow event for the immediate Boston area. I am still in NC and people are freaking out here. I see maybe an 1-2 in Chapell Hill but not familiar with the way storms progress down here. 1-2 shuts down the city 🙂

  113. One of the TV folks has reported the models are coming in slower than expected.

    Actually, it’s called “Daylight Savings Time”.

    Oh boy…

    2. I HEARD that and explained to my wife what an IDIOTIC statement it was!!!

      And I’ll name names. It was Pamela Gardner!
      She is useless!!!

    3. In my mind that kind of shits on the modeling systems. You don’t want to shit on them for no reason. I get needing to dumb things down for the casual TV viewer but every other met says “The guidance we use used to be available right before broadcast to inform us but now because of daylight savings it comes in later.”

  116. Here’s a summary of the 00z model suite so far….

    00z 12km NAM Kuchera Snow (about 18″ for Boston):
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018031200&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    00z 3km NAM Kuchera Snow (about 16″ for Boston):
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2018031200&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    00z GFS Kuchera Snow (about 7″ for Boston):
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018031200&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    00z ICON Snow (about 7″ for Boston):
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018031200&fh=84

    00z RGEM Kuchera Snow (about 10″ for Boston thru 48 hours):
    http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018031200&fh=48&r=us_ne&dpdt=

    12z CMC is running now and Euro is at 2AM.

    This still looks like a good hit for Eastern MA and I like the 6-12″ forecast range right now. Thinking 3-6″ back here in northern CT.

    2. One note about the ICON, despite the fact that the snow map only shows 7″, it is delivering nearly 1.75″ QPF to Boston. That is likely going to end up more like 15″ of snow than 7″ ! I have noticed that the ICON “true SLR” snow ratio is consistently low.

      Factoring this all in, there is still quite a bit of model support here for a healthy dumping of snow. GFS is the outlier at this point. We’ll see what the Euro does…

  118. 00z UKMET has trended stronger and ticked west as well.

    QPF is 1″ to Worcester, 1.2-1.5″ inside 495, and 1.5-2″ southeast Mass into Cape

    That’s good for 12″+ in Boston.

    1. Appreciate all the model updates! I am staying up for the euro. Btw what site do you use for rpm?

  120. 00z euro doesn’t seem to be more west or east if I am reading it right but has higher snowfall accumulation than 12z. 12 inches for Boston kuchera method

    1. MSLP is in about the same location, yes, but the whole system is more juiced and the precip field larger and further west than 12z.

  121. 00z Euro has also trended west and more robust with the precip field. Big improvement over the 12z run. QPF:

    0.5 to HFD / CT river
    0.8 to ORH
    1″ to ~ 495
    1.2 through BOS
    1.8-2″ PLY through Cape

    This supports a good foot of snow in Boston and SE MA gets lambasted. NWS will probably be upgrading to Warnings from the Ct River eastward I would assume

    1. Here’s a tip – click on the timestamp of a tweet and you will get a direct link to the tweet.

    1. Thanks Doc.

      I just read all of the posts and looked at the links and checked all of my model sites.

      Something just isn’t adding up. This thing is way off shore.

      We should not be getting this much precip so far away from the center.
      I think we’ll get the bulk of the snow from upper air dynamics.
      We’ll be under the influence of the 500 mb dual lows, plus a really nices
      850 mb fetch coming in off of the ocean,not to mention some potent
      vorticity advection at 850mb

      Here are some maps from euro

      https://imgur.com/a/ywrmR

  124. Huge bust potential here …

    “The cold will manifest itself from the intense snow rates.”

    Imagine that the heaviest snow from the 850/700 mb lows remains just off shore and instead, the area receives light to moderate snows from the link btwn the coastal low and the 500 mb feature.

    During the day ….. in March …..

    I hold out some hope for 2-5 inches with less on the pavement.

      2. I have not fond that to be the case. depends upon the situation.
        I have seen it too fare SE in some instances.

        Not saying it is correct.

        I do NOT like this set up at all.

        I am not comfortable in the least.

        for now, I wouldn’t touch my 6-12 call from last night, but
        I know it could bust in either direction.

        It certainly will be interesting to see how this plays out..

  127. nws winter storm warning map

    https://www.weather.gov/box/

    text

    …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
    EDT TUESDAY…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow expected with near blizzard conditions. Total
    snow accumulations of 12 to 17 inches, with localized amounts
    up to 22 inches, are expected.

    https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=box&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

    snow map

    https://www.weather.gov/images/box/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

  129. Guys is this real saying Plymouth county could exceed 20+ Boston 18+ starting at midnight till after 8 Tuesday night

    1. If you believe it, it does.

      As Tom indicated, huge bust potential.

      I do NOT feel comfortable about these forecasts.
      Could they verify? yup. Could they bust? yup.

      1. So just catching up I’m suspecting the Nam is pumping these large numbers out . This sucks because my wife has a major Drs appointment in Brighton Wednesday morning and we don’t know what to do not knowing how long or when I’ll be home

    1. Buy it. Remember a few days ago the models demonstrated an arm of precipitation that extended well northwest of the offshore low? You mentioned a norlun type feature? Most members now agree that while the low may not traverse the BM, there will be an impressive interaction between the strong low pressure ocean system and the potent upper level trough. The models hinted st this for quite some time. If indeed the ocean storm digs a tad more, blizzard conditions will materialize over a good portion of southern New England.

  131. So JpDave and others… A few days back Eric Fisher said this:

    60% fringe hit (6″ or less)
    30% major snowstorm
    10% miss

    Would you say based on current data that this is still correct and all the stations and NWS going all in is just riding the 30%?

          1. Ah ok. Major is generally defined as greater than 6. I know most don’t agree here, but it’s is. 🙂

            1. Generally defined by whom? This is New England. The criteria should be different. Six inches is borderline moderate storm around here. However, it is usually enough to cancel schools so I give up

              1. I don’t wear boots in 12 or 18 or 24.

                Common sense would say a hit is when the major part of a storm hits an area at its strongest. I would think even three inches would be a hit if that is the strongest part of the storm. Logically, it does not tell me that a hit means 12 inches. Six sounds more realistic – at least to me.

  134. Need to see the 12z runs ….

    if nothing were to change, I’m more comfortable with anywhere between 2-5 and 4-7 and less on the pavements.

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