Friday Forecast

56 Comments

12:06PM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)
Brief warmth today. Strong back door cold front arrives Saturday driven by building high pressure in eastern Canada, returning the chill to the region during the course of the day, then remaining in the region for much of the holiday weekend including into Monday. The biggest questions remain for Monday are whether or not that boundary moves back much to the north ahead of a stronger low pressure system and cold front from the west, and the timing of a ribbon of heavier rain showers associated with the stronger cold front, especially with regard to the Boston Marathon and a Red Sox game. The Patriots Day Red Sox game has only been rained out 4 times (1959, 1961, 1965, and 1984). Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 53-59 South Coast, 60-66 elsewhere except 67-75 interior valleys. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind light SW to W.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy then becoming cloudy from northeast to southwest with possible drizzle/fog by evening. Highs ranging from 55-63 southern NH and northern and eastern MA and 64-72 to the south except cooler South Coast, then falling through the 50s to the 40s in all areas from northeast to southwest during the day and to the upper 30s at night. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast with areas of fog/drizzle and a chance of rain possibly mixed with sleet. Temperatures steady middle 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle. Chance of rain. Band of heavier rain showers favoring later in the day. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs ranging from the middle 40s north to lower 60s south but low confidence temperature forecast at this time.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)
Expect a progressive but active pattern with a few episodes of unsettled weather and temperatures averaging mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)
The pattern of days 6-10 continues at least into the start of this period. It may try to warm somewhat later in the period.

56 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  5. Going to be participating in the marathon on Monday. And by participating I mean watching in bed with a tub full of snacks while I self soothe myself that next year I will be fit enough to run the marathon.

  6. I just hope the very heaviest of the rain holds off until at least noonish. I don’t expect a bone dry am commute to work Monday, but I don’t want downpours either.

    On the way home, it can do whatever it wants. šŸ˜‰

  8. Looking at some of the guidance for Sunday into early Monday, especially temperatures, forecast soundings, and ptypes… it’s pretty unbelievable. I’d guess some school districts, especially in the interior, will have to burn another snow day Monday due to ice. Also concerned about potential damage in the interior due to ice accretion, though hoping for more sleet/snow as opposed to freezing rain. Really interested in seeing what the hi-res guidance looks like as it comes into range- we know that often the global models don’t hang onto low level cold long enough.

    Oh by the way, a quick glance at 500mb for Sunday would suggest temperatures 70-80+ when we’ll be in the 20s or 30s. Just an incredibly ugly 72 hour evolution on the way for New England, with some records likely to be set.

      1. Ah, thanks Vicki. I’ve been out of high school so long I forgot April vacation was a thing šŸ™‚

  9. Looks like an icing event setting up your way WXWatcher looking at 1z runs of the American models.

    1. Yes I do. And they are careful to use the word “risk” which many people will ignore. As soon as they see the map, it’s 100% certain to happen.

  15. Rain here….I am planning to grill; and although I have no problem grilling in the rain, I had planned to sit outside while food cooked with a mojito. This is not working into my plans.

    On a fun note….my youngest whose photos I post here occasionally has be asked to display two of her photos in Artisans at Polly’s in Sutton Center. Polly’s is run by a Sutton photographer who has a phenomenal talent. She brings in artisans with various items as well as local artists and photographers.

      1. Why thank you! It departed but my chair is wet šŸ™ Iā€™m betting since I sit out in snowstorms, I can find a solution.

      1. It has snowed on Marathon Day before. I don’t know specific years though but not recently and not this century so far.

  18. I don’t recall ever experiencing an all day “sleet”storm. It usually changes fairly quickly to rain or mixes with snow. Glad I didn’t put away my shovel…assuming that is the proper tool to remove it.

    1. We’ve had 2 in my memory. This will probably not quite be the 3rd.

      And sleet’s ratio to water is basically 1:1, so given the amount of precipitation expected, there won’t be a whole lot of sleet accumulation. Also, the ground will not be that cold, as in, below freezing, so it won’t hang out that long either.

      1. I was wonder if u usual cold or the heat of several years ago is more difficult. I suspect my son would say cold but then he is my son šŸ™‚

  20. There are mosquitoes about this evening, which is normal for a sudden warm-up when it has not been too dry. However, if one is looking for nature to control the population, that may very well happen in areas that temperatures drop below freezing during Sunday. Many of the early crop will be eliminated and that may also impact the second crop later as there will not be as many larvae to develop.

    1. I do remember this. They are out in droves and as you know I have been out so would notice the change. Iā€™m hoping for a deep freezer chase them away. However, even without it, it seems they moderate.

        1. I agree. That is one reason I love to sit out in winter. Iā€™m not constantly swatting something. Just relaxing time

  23. WRF_ARW2 10:1 Snow which is not snow at all, but rather sleet.
    Roughly .5 inch qpf as sleet. AS TK indicated, sleet is roughly a ratio of 1:1 (actually I think it is a tad more depending upon the diameter of pellets. I use 1:1 to 2:1) Even conservatively, this “could” amount to 1/2 inch of sleet whitening up the ground. A stretch would be 1 inch of sleet, but that is a stretch for sure. And the other 2 WRF runs were more like .2 or .3 qpf.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw2/2018041312/wrf-arw2_asnow_neus_48.png

    This map is not snow, but dramatizes just the amount of sleet.

      1. BRING IT ON!!!! This spring SUCKS anyway! Let’s add to
        the MISERY! Yeah, that’s the ticket!

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