Saturday Forecast

81 Comments

9:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)
It is typical this time of year to see a back-door cold front and a significant temperature drop. This particular case is stronger because of how cold eastern Canada is, so the temperature drop till be to levels that result in some frozen and freezing precipitation by Sunday. Today’s temperature drop will be accompanied by largely dry weather but an increase in clouds. And then we turn our attention to Sunday’s cold and very late taste of winter. Back some time ago I expressed concern of a very late winter event. Will this count as that event? Time will tell. Of more immediate importance is the weather for Patriots Day Monday. We have to first see where that boundary that today is the back door, coming back as a warm front, makes it to. I’m going to split the difference at this point and bring it about half way through the region before a stronger cold front sweeps through from the west Monday night. Before all that we have additional wet weather, including a band of heavier rain showers associated with the front from the west. Timing of that is crucial for the Boston Marathon, but so far I think a lot of the race may be finished before that arrives. However that doesn’t save the region from wet weather prior to that, and very likely wet enough to rain out the midday Patriots Day Red Sox game for only the 5th time. Once we get beyond all this, Tuesday will also be unsettled as upper level low pressure crosses the region, but clouds and cool air will be more of the story than any precipitation, which will only be scattered. And then we will sneak in a quick nicer day on Wednesday as a small area of high pressure moves in. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 48-55 eastern MA and southeastern NH, 56-64 elsewhere, occurring this morning, then falling into the 40s all areas from north to south. Wind light variable becoming N to NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts from north to south.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Drizzle developing evening. Episodes of rain and sleet overnight. Lows 32-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of rain, freezing rain, and sleet, with the icing most likely in pockets of interior northern MA and southern NH. A small accumulation of sleet possible. Temperatures steady 32-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of rain possibly mixed with sleet early. Temperatures rise slightly to 34-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Periods of light rain/drizzle morning. Rain showers likely during the afternoon, some possibly heavy especially late-day. Highs 40-48 north central MA and southwestern NH, 48-55 elsewhere but may spike to 55-62 interior southern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to SE, may shift to S in some southern areas later in the day.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers of rain possibly mixed with snow. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the middle to upper 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)
Active but mostly progressive pattern with at least 2 low pressure systems possibly impacting the region with additional wet weather. Temperatures mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-28)
Pattern transition may begin with more of an amplified pattern with slower-moving weather systems. Unsure where this area ends up just yet but as transition begins we’ll still see a couple episodes of unsettled weather and overall below normal temperatures.

81 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Waiting on the 12Z NAM, but looking over the 6Z, 925MB temps remain below
    freezing until 12Z Monday AM. Surface remains near freezing. Sounds like
    a recipe for sleet. We shall see.

  3. Thank you, TK. Glorious spring morning to enjoy coffee outside. The birds are singing loudly. Snow blowers are running out their gas. Some lawnmowers are humming. What a beautiful world.

    1. I’ll be heading to Concord in a few to support a friend doing a 26.2 mile walk while wearing a 10 pound backpack. She’s doing this as part of an event inspired by the events of the Boston Marathon a few years ago. It honors first responders and veterans from the military. One of those she is doing this for is my dad. She’ll be carrying his photo in her collection.

      They are ready for the falling temperatures but by then they’ll probably welcome it. 😉

        1. It starts by the bridge and then it progresses to that path that runs along 2A (the name escapes me, oops), and then it returns to the start area for the finish. So the beginning and end are a little different than the rest of it which is over a loop, so during the course of the walk they pass the same location several times. I went last year and sat in 2 different places as I had to leave for a while in between. It passes many of the parking areas along the way so plenty of places for friends / family to support them.

          1. Awesome cause. Spectacular area. I spent a lot of time in that area. We went more often to the re-enactments in Lexington a s concord than we did the marathon. Hoping to see photos on FB

  5. Nearly 60 and sunny here.
    Not sure where the BD front is. Need to find s surface map.
    Anyhow, Sunday And Monday look like a miserable mess.

    1. The boundary is already by most of the region. The reason your temp is still relatively mild is because it didn’t fall much last night and the air reaching you now has traveled over milder land versus chilly ocean. That will change a little later.

  7. FWIW, the 3KM NAM shows much less sleet than the 12KM NAM. Precip more
    spotty and lighter with 3KM. Oh well, sit back and enjoy because it will do whatever
    it wants to do. 😀

    1. Experimental HRRRX shows only a touch of sleet for the area.
      Far more spotty and light precip than all of the others.

    1. Arghhh. I was hoping for a deep freeze to hinder the mosquitoes…just not during marathon. Now tell me…is that too much to ask 🙂 🙂 😉

  9. It’s not gonna do much except maybe at elevation. Sometimes those models are crapola. Common sense would say how much icing is there on April 15th at the coast.

  11. I’m not a fan of the new thing on the 7 day forecasts that I’ve seen on a couple stations now, especially ch 5. The upside down triangles with the ! in it. Not necessary at all.

      1. My opinion is it’s a cross between hype & distraction and then the viewer is focusing on the graphic, which tells you nothing, while ignoring the forecast that is explaining why they have it there.

        2. I actually like Ch. 5’s new graphics. I can figure out for myself though whether it is an “impact” day for me or not. Most every day has some impact to an extent.

  12. Thanks TK. 37 here in Plymouth, NH. That has been steady or falling all morning.

    In terms of the ice risk, I pretty much agree with what the NWS has out in terms of an accumulation forecast and the extent of the WWAs. I think Monday will likely be classifiable as a total washout. Even in the morning, there could be some downpours around, even with the heaviest/steadiest rain coming in the afternoon. I think the 3km NAM has a good handle on the evolution.

      1. Yeah, I think the Sun is the key. Because you guys are behind the front too, but like TK said the air mass isn’t overly cold yet, so the Sun can still heat it nicely. But we’re socked in.

  13. Thank you TK.

    Skied this a.m. at Wachusett– their last day. Fine spring skiing under a blue sky.

  14. Even though winds are now onshore everywhere, still not really chilly just yet. Temps have just stopped rising is all.

    1. OH No! Please NO! AH(*!@&#&!@*(#&*(!@&#*&!@(#*&!@(*#&(*!@#

      OK, for those who give a crap or don’t, down to 48 here in JP. It’s happening.

  21. WWA has been expanded to Boston/Providence!

    As I boldly predicted this morning in my post above. 😉

      1. URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
        National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
        415 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

        MAZ013-015>017-RIZ001>003-150415-
        /O.EXB.KBOX.WW.Y.0020.180415T1000Z-180415T2100Z/
        Western Norfolk MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-
        Northern Bristol MA-Northwest Providence RI-
        Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
        Including the cities of Foxborough, Norwood, Boston, Quincy,
        Taunton, Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry,
        and West Greenwich
        415 PM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

        …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT
        SUNDAY…

        * WHAT…Sleet and pockets of freezing rain expected. Total ice
        accumulations of a trace are expected.

        * WHERE…Portions of eastern and southeastern Massachusetts and
        northern Rhode Island.

        * WHEN…From 6 AM to 5 PM EDT Sunday.

        * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…The ice may result in areas of slippery
        travel conditions on untreated surfaces.

        PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

        A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
        will cause travel difficulties. Expect

        1. Given the season, that is a good number of hours of frozen precipitation especially for the coastal plain.

  22. Leaning toward a lesser ice / sleet event. There will be some sleet, and minimal icing. 75% or more of the population will be largely unaffected in terms of any travel or walking difficulty.

  23. Down to 50.

    Just dawned on me that I didn’t clear garage for my car. TK will sleet be bad enough to damage car? And I fully understand this is close to an impossible question but thought I’d toss it out.

      1. Cool. I was thinking it would not either but the idea popped into my head and there it stayed 🙂

  24. Down to 32 here in Plymouth, NH. We won’t get above that til at least Monday morning. Cold air dam locked and loaded to the max. Any precip for at least the next 36 hours here will be of the frozen variety.

  26. And to think there was a forecast model a few days ago that had highs in the lower 80s in northern MA and southern NH this afternoon. 😉

        1. I remember originally seeing hints of a very warm day today and initially saying it could happen, then that night the ECMWF reminded me about highs in eastern Canada and…..

      1. That definitely looks like a potential recipe for repeats of 1987 (late April) and 1977 (early May). Up until now, I always figured those anomolous snows as once in a hundred years, not 30 and 40 respectively. 😉

        1. Anomalous events are not that uniformly distributed. In fact if anything they tend to cluster a bit.

  29. If I may share this. I think some are familiar with “why not Devin” or “Devin strong”who lost his battle with DPIG last October just before his 7th birthday. Last year he met his mom and ran the last few yards of the marathon with her. This year, his mom and friends run to raise money for DPIG

    But this is how horrible negatives are turned to positives. The post below came from devins moms FB page….weather the storm is what life is all about and this mom is beyond strong.

    “We are ready! The weather may not be great but I’ve learned to weather the storm. I will be running with my two best girls, all of our support on the sidelines, 3 of my sons at the finish, and Devin in my heart and soul. So grateful to be raising money in Devin’s honor for all the little warriors fighting DIPG. Life is supposed to be a marathon, Devin only had a chance to sprint. Thank you so much for all of your support.”

    1. Thank you for sharing. One of my friends lost her daughter to DIPG a couple years ago.

      1. I’m so sorry. What an aweful disease. This woman is amazingly strong but very honest and open about a loss I cannot imagine.

        I think her comment that she has learned to weather the storm is something we can all learn from.

      1. I love it. Pingers. She’ll be on maternity leave soon. It’s almost time for her baby to arrive. 🙂

        1. I love pingers. A new weather term has been born…and it seems like yesterday she announced pregnancy

  31. The Red Sox seem to have an early-season goal of setting a record for runs scored.

    And the Bruins have scored 4 goals so far this evening and it’s not even the end of the first period.

  32. With the Red Sox its not just the offense its the pitching as well. If they don’t blow that first game they would only have one loss right now.

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