Friday Forecast

128 Comments

7:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)
Welcome to June! We’re about to dive into a cooler period of weather after a warm and humid start to the month today. We start in a wedge of warm/humid air that arrived overnight and will present plenty of clouds and a risk of a shower or thunderstorm through this evening, there will be far more rain-free time today than not. A cold front moving through brings a shower and thunderstorm risk again during the first half of Saturday and this will favor areas south of the Massachusetts Turnpike. High pressure brings cooler air but fair weather for the balance of Saturday and Sunday, so the weekend, while not warm and feeling summery, will be largely dry. Low pressure will develop south of New England and try to lift back to the north, probably bringing a period of rain to the region sometime during Monday. However this low will move out only to be replaced by another system from the west Tuesday bringing the chance of showers. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 72-77 South Coast, 78-83 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring southern NH through northern MA until midnight. Humid. Lows 63-68. Wind light S.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms, favoring southern MA, CT, and RI through midday. Becoming less humid. Highs 68-75. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-55. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain north. Rain likely south. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 6-10)
Upper level low pressure will still be over the region around the middle of next week with below normal temperatures and a rain shower risk, but this will likely progress eastward and be replaced by drier and warmer weather before a front brings a shower/thunderstorm risk near the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)
A shot of cooler air for the first 2 or 3 days of this period then a warm-up follows this. A period of cloudiness and some wet weather may accompany the transition.

128 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thank TK
    Hard to believe but seven years ago today the EF3 tornado in Springfield. This tornado was on the ground for 39 miles. Everything came together that day. We had showers and storms with a warm front that morning. The sun came out and destabilized the atmosphere which was quite unstable for the day. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) was at 4,000 lift index values -8 to -10 helicity values in the 150-300 range. We rarely see severe parameters there this high. I will never forget watching the tornado on live television going over the bridge in Springfield and continue on its path toward downtown Springfield. This was the first time I ever saw a tornado in New England on live television.

    2. Your memory for weather events is impeccable Jimmy! I remember Boston getting some big storms as well that evening. Also IIRC the Bruins had a playoff game that evening as well. On their way towards their 6th Stanley Cup.

  3. Thank you TK

    JJ great comment. It was a day that still sticks with my older grands. I also remember watching it on the bridge in Springfield and the feeling it gave me.

  4. Tk, I know you are busy but if you have a chance, how does Worcester area look for T storms early to mid morning tomorrow? Nine year old grand is participating in the girls on the run 5K. Showers are no problem. Thunder would be. Thank you, sir.

    1. Good job getting us on track with the actual weather. 😀

      Let’s see what we get. Likely mostly nothing, but who knows.

      1. I apologize for posting something from AOL but could not find it mentioned elsewhere. I knew you would be on top of it !!!!

  8. Hey, perhaps I am misreading something, but last night’s 0Z Euro does NOT, repeat,
    Does NOT portray conditions next week nearly as bad as yesterday’s 12Z run.
    Monday’s Nor’easter stays off shore and the Tues/wed system is weak and brief.

    Perhaps not a bad week after all??????

        1. I have to say this is the best part of this blog. Maybe we will. Maybe we won’t. Keeps anticipation levels up and as we know anticipation is half the joy!!

        3. I was going to say Euro but you know me….contrarian extraordinaire. So I will go with the American 😉

            1. That’s what I figure so if everyone is going with the Euro, there may as well be someone going with the American.

    1. I wish I could say the same thing for inside our school.

      Its not hot, but it sure is stuffy in the hallways.

    2. I was surprised when I walked out the door, Philip. It really is not uncomfortable at all. Just inside the house felt “wet.” I’m thinking is because there is only a light breeze. Usually, I can open windows so that air blows through the house.

      1. Wednesday, June 20th.

        Thankfully, we get 3 days in before Labor Day, which helps to save some of June.

        1. I’m surprised. I thought you missed more than we did. I think the last day here is the 22nd, although it may be 21st. I could be confusing preschool with school. Uxbridge is the 25th

          2. We are making up 7 days. Had we gotten no snow days, we would have been out June 11th.

            No real length to the December break, as I think Christmas and New Year’s was on a Sunday, so we had a week and 1 day. Some years when they are on Wednesday’s or Thursday’s, the break can be from 1 and 1/2 to 2 weeks long.

              1. 2 were for snow and 5 were for power due to down trees and coastal flooding which made picking up students on the eastern side of town dangerous.

  14. The model forecasts for next week have really been all over the map. The Euro in particular seems to be on again/off again with every 0z/12z cycle. However, I think we’re getting convergence now on an offshore scenario with the Nor’easter. The 6z GFS is a major outlier from its ensembles, which are all way offshore. So yes, next week may not be bad at all.

    Taken to the extreme, the 6z run of the “parallel” GFS shows hardly a drop of rain in the region the next 16 days. If that’s the case, there will be some whispers of drought after this very warm and somewhat dry May.

        1. I agree with that. Even if next week isn’t bad from a rain perspective, we’re not going to see any summer heat. That likely holds off until mid-month.

    2. Our lawn (we have a sandy soil) went from lush and green to dry and green/tan in a matter of days. It even changed between yesterday and today.

      1. If I am not mistaken, May was somewhat dry. As much as I want sunny days, lawns, gardens, crops may end up paying for it perhaps.

        1. We had a fair amount of rain in May – spaced well so that the lawns never needed water…..even when it came to watering in the fertilizer. I seem to recall Sutton received more than other areas.

  15. Lightning strike(s) with the cell just south of Long Island.
    It’s finally June!!!! Quite stuffy in my classroom this morning.
    Six weather days brings us in Middleborough Public Schools to June 26.

    2. Yikes – that is late. I recall once my kids going to the 29th but that was an exception as other dates were days earlier.

      I cannot recall when we ended the year back in my day. I recall graduating junior high on June 18. I only remember the specific date because it is my birthday. But that was a few days before nongrads ended their year.

        1. Do you know if Boston starts before or after Labor Day and if it recognizes the Jewish holidays in the fall? I looked at its calendar but think I need a degree to figure it out.

        1. Sounds like it might be cool to wear it . Have a nice weekend all I’ve been straight out 7 days a week so more quick reading than postings. I am still getting calls from the March storms for brush & debris .

          1. I bet, I am taking down a few trees because if not, they could fall into the neighbors driveway. I also have another one that was partically taken down and hanging over the pool area so for saftey sake taking that one down as well. Also found one of them has a disease so taking it out before it can spread is good.

          2. Been seeing your schedule on FB, SSK and you have been really busy. SIL gets nice shirts for folks at his business and for daughter and the kids. Hope you got one for your son. It is great advertising. 🙂

                1. No way to much money & benefits I’m keeping up just fine my references speak for themselves. Take care very early estimate in Marshfield than two jobs going in pembroke .

  18. A few light showers passing by in the City.
    Can cut the humidity with a knife. Walking from my car I felt like I was swimming.
    A stinker as far as humidity goes.

  19. PWATs at 2″ today. That’s tropical air. Dew points are fine for assessing surface moisture, but if you want a measure of the full air mass the PWAT number is the one to look at. At or above 2″ = tropical soup.

        1. You’re right, Tom. June 28 with the snow days. That is a very busy calendar. Lots of info.

    2. I had looked at this past years calendar and could not figure out what Dever first day of School Aug 29 was. They do have religious holidays off to the right on the top but it doesn’t seem they have the days off for some.

      1. BPS last day for 2018-19 is June 18. That is perfectly normal, actually. IIRC back in my day, it was usually a few days later than that, depending on the year.

        1. Agree, Philip. That is what I said above. Sutton would have been out June 11 if no snow days. It started August 30 so two days prior to Labor Day. But Sutton also has just one day for Feb vacation. I’ve yet to figure out why it doesn’t get out earlier. But then I haven’t taken the time to look closely.

  23. WxWatcher your post on PWATs is very interesting. Is that a value that anyone can find or does it require calculations?

    1. Yup
      Available at Tropical Tidbits. Unfortunately, I can only find it on
      the CONUS region and not the NE.

      In any case, here is is as of 1*Z today (2PM)

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018060112/gfs_mslp_pwat_us_2.png

      You will not the shading in somewhere in the green zone.
      It is in MM, so 1MM = 0.0393700787 inch.

      I figure with the shaing it is somewhere between 50 and 60 mm
      OR
      1.9685 inches to 2.3622 inches, thus WxWatchers statment of around 2 inches.

  24. Vicki…
    There is a remote risk of a shower around late morning in that part of the region. Then it’s gone. Almost everywhere will see zippo.

    1. Perfect. Grand said she was hoping for rain to see how it feels to run a 5K in rain. Thank you very much

      1. No problem. Yeah, usually one outside hopes for no rain, but this time the rain chance is probably about 10%. 😉

        1. You’d like this grand….she is happy n0 matter what the weather and fascinated by it

  25. June 1 sure is the start of summer in this area. Sutton center store has lobster rolls as of today. I 8 am to reserve. And a very favorite farm stand in northbridge opened.

    1. A lot of things are open along the beaches now but Nate & I had the place to ourselves because there are still schools in session and it was a weekday, but those who did have the day off probably stayed away because their weather apps said “washout” through icons. It was very very nice up there until early afternoon then started to sprinkle off and on with more cloudiness. The air was humid but comfortable because of a southerly breeze. Very nice early season beach day. 🙂

      1. Nice.

        Did you see any flyers/posters for the Social Distortion concert
        coming to the Hampton Beach Casino Ballroom early in October??

        They are also coming to the House of Blues in Boston.
        I purchased tickets today. 😀

  26. International conservation great group. I won’t post to much but for those interested, some nice science video’s and articles. Vicki you will like the newest video. ( which is in the middle link) I put this on here because there are others I know that I talk to through email that are interested that I do not have on facebook.
    https://www.conservation.org/Pages/default.aspx
    https://www.conservation.org/Pages/default.aspx
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rM6txLtoaoc

    1. Thanks Matt. First two are the same. Third one….May be Fords voice but I can hear Mac saying the words.

  32. I do think we may have a 94 to 98F day or 2 sometime in the June 11 – 20 time frame.

    The PNA has tended to be negative late into spring, prompting a west coast frog, inducing a central us ridge, which has already caused a 100F in Minneapolis.

    The NAO has been positive keeping northeast Canada extremely cold. Low pressure areas have been rippling across southeast Canada, helping to occasionally grab pieces of that central us heat and sending it our way. Plus, the Bermuda high has occasionally been around already this spring. Perhaps a repeat performance mid month ??

        1. LOL ……

          When we are at myles standish in Plymouth at Fearings pond, there’s a small connection from the big pond to a small, muddy, grassy area called the frog pond and there’s tons of them. Our dog goes nuts and the kids like to catch them, hold them and then of course release them back.

          1. Something about kids and frogs. Trouble is,
            that feeling has never left me. I still love frogs.

              1. Afraid of warts? salmonella?

                Never afraid to hold frogs, toads
                or snakes.

                I used to capture spiders with my bare hands, but NOT anymore. 😀

        3. We used to catch frogs when I visited my nana on Isle la Motte in Lake Champlain. We’d set the hook right under the jaw bone and caught some awesome bass that way. Odd how that never bothered me but I still won’t take a fish off of the hook.

            1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

              My youngest, who loves to fish, struggles to take the fish off the hook. My wife usually saves the day.

          2. My wife won’t bait the hook or remove a fish. That’s my job. When we go fishing, I spend
            much of the time baiting her hook and removing her fish. 😀

            I used a live leopard frog for bait one time and one time only. Got a hit but didn’t hook the fish. That was it.

  35. Well, I’ll be interested to see if the 12z Euro op run shows consistency with the 3 rain events and also, towards day 9 and 10, if it shows the central us ridge building with high 850mb temps approaching New England from the west.

  36. New post!

    As Bri Eggers calls it “the air you can wear” is on the way out today, replaced by dry air through Sunday. When the moisture returns Monday, it wont’ be in the form of summer-feeling humidity, but rather a chilly rain!

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