Tuesday Forecast

143 Comments

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
Boundary sits over the region for a few days with unsettled weather, then dry air pushes in from the north late this week and brings improvement. All the while we’ll be watching Hurricane Florence for its impact to the south, looking more and more like at least some kind of landfall on the NC Coast, speed and exact position to be determined. Either way major impacts will take place down there and you’ll find discussions about that in the comments section. Forecast details…
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Highs 70-80. Lows 60-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the lower 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
Fair weather to start as high pressure dominates, then some occasional unsettled weather follows and some of this may be associated with remains of Florence, depending on where that goes. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)
A little more changeable weather expected with cool shots early and late in the period, a warm-up mid period and a risk of some wet weather before the second cool shot.

143 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  11. I read the blog last night before bed and was frankly, thoroughly disgusted.

    Vicki I am so sorry you were subjected to such a vicious and totally unnecessary and unfounded attack.

    Without going into a total rant, I will just comment that although blackstone is a highly educated man, he appears to have some deficiencies in his personality. It’s too bad, because this blog is awesome and does not need to be taken down by the likes of him.

    Vicki, keep doing what you do and don’t change a thing! 😀

    2. I’m at an uncharacteristic loss for words, JPD. Thank you is hardly enough. I do have some very happy tears. A very sincere thank you!!

      1. Did Blackstone come from the WBZ old blog? This blog is great for us to learn about our weather and not have to listen to someone berate another. Love your posts Vicki they are always uplifting. Thanks TK for your unending desire to inform us all about what we can expect in the future.

        1. What a special family we have here. Thank you ! I always figure I should learn from everything. I’m going to work on sitting on my hands more 🙂

  12. Florence has weakened a bit and is down to 130 mph.

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    800 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

    …RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY…
    …RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY…

    SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
    ———————————————-
    LOCATION…26.4N 64.6W
    ABOUT 405 MI…655 KM S OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 950 MI…1530 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…130 MPH…215 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…950 MB…28.05 INCHES

  14. I suspect Florence will become a high end Category 4 or Category 5 storm this evening or tonight. The halt in strengthening and slight weakening over the past 12-18 hours looks mainly due to internal reorganization, not environmental impacts. Convective tops cooling and a new eye clearing out this morning suggest reintensification is imminent.

    1. From what I have read this morning, you appear to be spot on, but that’s
      nothing new. When you have completed your education and training you
      are going to be one of the GOOD ONES! Keep up the great work.

      We can then all say we knew him when. 😀

    2. Last evening, Eric said pretty much the same thing.
      I honestly believe Flo will become a Cat 5, even if only briefly.

      I still think there is a reasonable chance it makes landfall as a Cat 4, certainly a high end 3. From what I was reading, it depends upon where in the eye
      wall replacement cycle Flo is when it makes land.

  16. Thanks, TK, and pulling for a great report today. Wishing you all the best.
    Remembering the solemn and tragic events of 9-11-01 this morning.
    As I do, I will always remember the absolutely wonderful, late-summer weather of that day: deep blue sky, low humidity and warm temperatures.
    Also thinking about all those about to be affected by Flo in the Carolinas and Virginia.

    Vicki, your words and kindness here lift me up every day.

    1. Thank you, Captain

      Your comment brings home the true focus of today…every day to be sure…but today more than many. There is something so much bigger than we are, and it’s easy to lose sight of it until days like today bring it clearly into focus.

  17. Thanks TK !

    I feel like we have slight improvement this morning in the models, even if it is in an indirect way.

    At least the models still initially aiming for the Outer Banks seem to then stall and head back southwest, landfalling somewhere in the vicinity of where the EURO comes ashore.

    For sure, an importance difference in timing of when that occurs, but they are at least arriving at a fairly similar location.

  22. Keith shared the name of a scanner app with me last night. I’ve been looking for a good scanner for this area, but he also suggested it would be interesting to listen to stations along the mid-Atlantic. I thought some here might be interested.

    It is Scanner Radio Pro – Fire and Police Scanner by GordonEdwards.net LLC

    https://imgur.com/a/EPAnRqZ

        1. For the Outer Banks there are feeds for Dare, Currituck and Carteret Counties. Also there is NC State Highway Patrol feed. Also the Hurriance Watch Net (which is Amateur Shortwave Net) is carried on this App. I believe they plan to activate that net tomorrow at 11 am.

    1. Use the drop down menu on this site to access other local cams. The Atlantic Beach one has an awesome looking sky right now!!

    1. Thank goodness !!

      Against its own initialized pressure, it appears the GFS landfalls Florence 8 mb lower than its initialized pressure on the run.

      1. Yes, a bit ragged. I still find it impressive.

        Seems to be between recon planes. I see cooling cloud tops around the central dense overcast and excellent ventilation on all quadrants.

        I think the plane may find a pressure drop when the hurricane is next sampled.

  32. Katrina offered an important lesson re : storm surge.

    Within reason, it doesn’t necessarily matter what the hurricane landfalls as, it matters what the hurricane’s intensity was not too far offshore.

    Recall that Katrina made landfall as a 3, but had built up a cat 5 storm surge in the Gulf.

    The analogy to this might be to create a wave in the pool. The wave keeps going for a while, even if you ease off the mechanism by which you created the wave.

    So, I think its really crucial to the coastline whether Florence maintains around a 950 mb pressure or intensifies the next 24 to 36 hrs to something in the 920s or 930s.

    1. Excellent point. Oh so true.

      So far the Euro wants to raise the pressure on Flo before it makes
      landfall, perhaps mitigating some of the surge. We won’t know until we know.

      1. So did the NAM. (raising pressure a bit offshore)

        Perhaps the GFS did, I almost can’t look at that model anymore. It drives me CRAZY !!!! LOL

    2. Interesting, Tom. I was reading this morning about the storm surge for Hugo. Sorry to keep mentioning it, but with my inlaws living there, it is the worst I’ve had even a light connection with. Hugo had a confirmed surge of 19.8 feet (a fair amount below Katrina’s on the scale of things) in Awendaw, SC, which is about 25 miles due north from Sullivans Island/Isle of Palms where he made landfall.

      I had found this

      https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/

      and this

      https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/#hugo (this because I was following hugo but it has blurbs on lots of others…maybe all, but I have not read that far yet)

  33. Boy, the EURO didn’t move the hurricane very far btwn 48 and 72 hrs and it dropped the pressure about 4 mb during that time frame.

    1. Worried what hr 96 will bring. It may not move much. At 72hrs, the 500 mb ridge is stronger to the west of Florence, than it is to the east.

      1. Ugh – GA is where some of the folks evacuating NC and SC are heading. Not the coast of course.

        SC has made I-26 which is the main road heading out of Charleston is now one direction only. I don’t know if other states are doing this. It was one of several major errors on the part of LA for Katrina. SC has always been good at it.

  39. The governor of South Carolina earlier lifted the mandatory evacuation for southern counties areas near the coast. I am hoping 12z EURO does not happen.

  40. This tweet from meteorologist John Homenuk pretty much says it all with 12z EURO
    Afternoon Euro is a good example of what can happen to #Florence when dealing with weakened steering currents underneath a huge ridge with a few subtle shortwaves meandering around. This would be a total nightmare for the Carolina coast.

    It is hard to say right now whether this Euro run has to do with a specific shortwave/weakness offshore, or the larger loss of steering overall. It is also important not to be overly reactionary to one model run. Let’s see the full suite of data first.

  41. I see the “ever consistent Euro” burped. And yet the masses will still never learn this model isn’t perfect either.

  42. There are also people convinced that if it reaches CAT 5, it stays that way through landfall, as if storm’s don’t have the ability to weaken. Again, not here on the blog but folks I talk to in daily life and things caught on TV and heard on radio. Same type of mentality that resolves 3-6 inches of snow in the winter to “we’re getting 6 inches”. It’s not really that difficult, is it?

    Anyway gotta keep the BP down, heading to doc in a few min. 😉

  43. I prepared and presented this last year, but since this is 35 years since, I will post it again today…

    Think this summer was the “worst ever”? Think again…

    On September 11 1983 Boston hit 99 near the end of their hottest summer on record.

    The temperature at Logan Airport exceeded 95 on 7 days…
    June 22: 97
    July 4: 98
    July 16: 99
    August 8: 96
    August 20: 97
    September 11: 99
    September 20: 97

    There were 4 heatwaves with 90 or greater on 3 or more consecutive days, the longest being July 15 through July 21, with the days running this way…
    July 15: 93
    July 16: 99
    July 17: 91
    July 18: 93
    July 19: 90
    July 20: 93
    July 21: 95

    There were 30 days that reached 90 or higher at Logan Airport…
    June: 5 days
    July: 13 days
    August: 6 days
    September: 6 days

    June 1983 was the 10th hottest on record at Boston with a mean temperature of 70.7.

    July 1983 was the hottest month on record in Boston with a mean temperature of 78.0.

    August 1983 came in a modest 18th place for heat with a mean temperature of 73.6.

    September 1983 was the hottest September on record in Boston with a mean temperature of 70.6, beating the old record of 69.4 from September 1930.

    The June through August mean temperature of 74.1 was the hottest meteorological summer at Boston.

    The July through September mean temperature of 74.1 was the hottest for that 3-month period.

    The 4-month period from June through September was also the hottest on record with a mean temperature of 73.2.

    ………………….
    And just think, that all happened with Logan having a temperature censor that was CORRECTLY CALIBRATED. 🙂

  48. High altitude recon flight in progress. Sampling atmosphere west of Florence.

    No low altitude flight in progress currently.

    Current satellite showing ragged eye getting less so with time and central dense overcast becoming a bit more symmetric and with cooling cloud tops.

    My guess is Florence has entered a slow strengthening phase and whenever the next recon plane gets out there, I believe it will find pressure having fallen some.

  51. Quick summary…

    Doc appointment went very well!
    We pretty much have it nailed that my autoimmune disease flares are being triggered by my immune system’s response to allergens. We may be able to fight that more directly soon. For now, to get the flare under control, I’m increasing a medication dose for a while then tapering it back. It’s worked every time in the past. I know it will work again.

    🙂

    6. Great news! I know for sure you know this but stress also causes and intensifies AI flares so please be extra good to yourself and let us know if you need a hand with anything! We’ve got your back TK!

    2. It’s really just an issue with the model’s response to lack of steering. Pay attention to the second low that it forms, which probably won’t actually be there.

      1. Did you have a peek at the Our Gang link?
        Only about a minute or less that needs to be viewed, but how appropriate.

  53. That dry air is taking serious bites at the south side of Florence. At this rate she’ll be a “half-i-cane” soon. 😛

      1. Well I have been mentioning it off and on after discussing it with a fellow forecaster privately last night. We were talking about how much influence that disturbance’s outflow may have on the hurricane. It’s trying at least.

  54. The 18Z HWRF is cranking and it looks like it has it’s eye on Lower NC or the SC/NC border. In that area somewhere. Where it goes from there? Nobody knows.

    1. I’d say really strange. I looked to see how far it is from Roswell…that’s how my quirky mind works….and it is not that close. 2 hours.

      1. Yes they located Alf and the Planet Melmac 😉 In all seriousness though must be something significant if it might be shut down for a few months.

  57. First pass through the eye tonight …..

    Around 942 to 943 mb ….. East quadrant of storm with around a 125 knot at flight level and just under 110 knots at the surface.

  59. Good morning. latest from NHC

    Looking more and more like TK nailed this one. CAT 2 at landfall. Pretty much exactly what TK predicted. Flo down to 130 mph at latest advisory.

    http://www.woodshill.net/?p=8017#comments

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 12/0900Z 29.0N 70.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
    12H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
    24H 13/0600Z 32.0N 74.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
    36H 13/1800Z 33.2N 76.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
    48H 14/0600Z 33.8N 77.3W 105 KT 120 MPH…NEAR THE COAST
    72H 15/0600Z 33.8N 78.2W 85 KT 100 MPH…NEAR THE COAST
    96H 16/0600Z 33.6N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
    120H 17/0600Z 34.2N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

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