Wednesday Forecast

134 Comments

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
An old frontal boundary will sit over the region today and Thursday, providing some focus for shower and thunderstorm development. High pressure strengthens over the region at the end of the week and erodes the boundary and replaces unsettled weather with fair weather. Meanwhile, the Hurricane Florence watch continues as the powerful hurricane nears the Carolinas where it looks like there will be a landfall, the details of which (speed and direction of storm) are still somewhat unknown. There will be serious storm surge, rainfall, and wind in that area, with major impact. One possible positive aspect may be that the storm may, after intensifying some today, start to weaken and briefly make a turn to parallel the coast before eventually landfalling. This could expand the area impacted by surge but at the same time lessen the level of it. It also would mean slightly lesser wind impact if the weakening were significant enough. Rainfall is always a wildcard and we’ll have to see where heavier bands set-up and move. If we ever hear from the remnants, it will not be before the end of this 5-day period. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring RI and eastern MA this morning, and favoring areas closer to the South Coast this afternoon. Highs 70-78. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers. Lows 60-67. Wind light NE.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring the morning hours. Highs 70-78. Wind light NE to E.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-80. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
A risk of some wet weather front a front moving through from the west and possibly some moisture associated with Florence anywhere from later September 17 through September 19, then a shot of cooler/drier air to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)
A more progressive pattern, warming up early in the period, a risk of showers following that, and then a cool down to end the period.

134 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Nice upcoming weekend, it appears.

    https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=eus&band=13&length=24

    Observations :

    1) The outflow from the Gulf of Mexico disturbance, which may have been affecting Florence on its southern side yesterday ….. seems to have either eased some or Florence has moved a bit out of its way

    2) In turn, the southern side of the hurricane looks much better

    3) outflow continues to look superb, it makes me nervous that one more intensification phase is possible.

    1. 1) Was expected so not surprised.
      2 & 3) It will intensify some today.
      4) It may weaken considerably near the coast…hoping for that.

  3. Huge difference in winds the recon plane is seeing between the southwest side of the eyewall and the northeast side.

    Perhaps this is normal to have a difference, but that much ?

  4. Thank you TK

    When you say parallel the coast, do you mean to the south? And sp9logies if you specified, my eyes are only half open and I have not had coffee

    1. TK – you answered my question in your comment on FB. Thank you. I am keeping my fingers crossed that this is the scenario. Interesting that you have said from the get go that you felt she might (stressing might) not be a direct hit.

  5. Thanks TK. Really glad to hear your appointment went well yesterday!

    The internal structure of Florence is remarkably complex. This speaks to what Tom was talking about above. It’s mostly related to the concepts of concentric eyewalls and eyewall replacement cycles. There have been some occasional intrusions of dry air into the storm as well, and perhaps a bit of shear on the SW side as TK has talked about. But I think it’s the internal variations more than anything that have capped her intensity.

    That is a silver lining, but not much of one. Florence has also expanded greatly in size, largely due to these same processes. This increases the storm surge threat. It also remains forecast to slow down significantly near the coast with catastrophic flooding possible. Remember, most hurricane related fatalities occur from water (surge and inland flooding), not wind. The last message we want communicated is that Florence is less dangerous because the top winds are 10-20mph less than forecast.

    1. As always, WxWatcher, excellent information. I have listened to a couple of local mets…the ones I have the most confidence in. I like to do this as any storm approaches. They both gave the same explanations. I’m a huge fan of mets explaining the whys. They also have mentioned Katrina, as I understood Tom to mention the other day, being a 5 but arriving as a 2. They stressed that the drop in intensity did not diminish the storm surge. It seems a lot of emphasis is placed by folks on the category. I think human nature tends to have us focus on the small picture rather than the large.

      All of that said, the three people I have spoken to in the Charleston area are concerned because of the amount of rain they have had leading up to Flo. They have said their ground is fairly saturated. I’m not qualified to say for certain that would add to the seriousness, but it seems to me that it would have some impact.

      1. Thanks Vicki, Katrina is a great example. Many people do not realize that storm was rapidly weakening as it made landfall. But because of its size it had already pushed so much water out ahead of it, it all had to go somewhere. This won’t be as bad as Katrina as that was a unique case with impacts exacerbated by far more than the storm itself. But the idea of a strong major hurricane possibly weakening to a 2 or a low end 3 on landfall is a similarity. Hurricane Ike in 2008, which was devastating in parts of Texas, is another good example, that storm was a major hurricane for a long time but weakened to a 2 before landfall. And then of course there’s the inland flooding you talked about, and that’s almost entirely independent of storm intensity.

        1. Thank you, WxW. I should have said that Flo and Katrina cannot be compared with only a few – or perhaps even one – exception. I think it is important to mention as you did.

          Tom’s image of the Cape Fear Basin below shows also what you have said.

          I find this discussion fascinating but at the same time and hoping that somehow the least amount of damage possible will be the end result.

  6. Listening to local radio hosts ridiculing “hurricane hype,” this morning reminds me that at the time the media perception of Katrina was “ cat 5 or total flop.” If anything in the years since Katrina and the proliferation of social media that perception has only gotten worse……

  9. Good bullet points at this time from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    -Northern NC/VA impacts trending less intense, but STILL PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
    -SC/SE GA (including Savannah) impacts trending WORSE.
    -Winds worst near the coast, but can extend inland as well.
    -Inland flooding a BIG concern along the path.

  10. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e4/Capefearrivermap.png

    Here is an image of the Cape Fear River Basin, which becomes tidal as it approaches Wilmington (the red dot at the bottom).

    It may not look like a lot of mileage, but that’s probably 8 to 10 miles from the mouth of the river (at the ocean) to just north of Wilmington.

    This is a huge concern as its an easy path for a big ocean surge to move inland and inundate the city several miles inland, from the ocean.

    Even more concerned today, if the center does what it looks like it may do. Wilmington is poised for strong East, than perhaps southeast winds, veering to south as Florence’s center crawls west southwest or just southwest of Wilmington.

  11. Waves as high as 83 feet tall have been measured by a high resolution satellite altimeter in Florence this morning.

    1. Good grief!!!! I’ve never heard of such a thing. Just imagine waves of that magnitude or even 1/2 of that making it on shore! YIKES!

    2. That is terrifying I don’t know how eaves buikd but assume they are far from land. But could they maintain their strength as they move toward shore

  13. Latest from NHC (Thanks for the reminder JJ)

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/092830_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 12/1500Z 29.8N 71.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
    12H 13/0000Z 31.1N 73.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
    24H 13/1200Z 32.6N 75.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
    36H 14/0000Z 33.5N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
    48H 14/1200Z 33.8N 77.4W 105 KT 120 MPH…NEAR THE COAST
    72H 15/1200Z 33.6N 78.4W 85 KT 100 MPH…NEAR THE COAST
    96H 16/1200Z 33.6N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
    120H 17/1200Z 34.7N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

    There is still a narrow window of opportunity for Florence to
    strengthen a little when the cyclone moves over the warmest SSTs and
    highest upper-ocean heat content while the shear will be the lowest
    between 0600-1200 UTC tomorrow morning. After that, decreasing ocean
    heat content along with the slowing forward speed of Florence should
    cause at least some cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, which
    should induce a gradual weakening trend. Once Florence reaches the
    shallow coastal shelf waters in 72 h, land interaction and more
    significant upwelling are expected, further enhancing the weakening
    process. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher
    statistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of the
    decay SHIPS model after that time

  15. This puts Florence in perspective. Tweet from meteorologist Ed Vallee
    #Florence currently is larger than the state of North Carolina. What a beast.

    1. Andrew was about the size of Massachusetts.

      More to it than the size of the storm. Florence is a mid sized hurricane.

  16. More perspective…

    Some of our winter storms have produced offshore waves of 75-95 feet.

    The ones associated with Florence are what would be expected with a hurricane of that strength.

  22. An observation …..

    The 12z EURO at 24 hrs has a pressure of 956 mb

    At 48 hrs, nearly encountering land close to Wilmington, NC … it projects 960 mb

    I see this also in many of the other global models.

    All the way to where it really slows down, and/or encounters land, I don’t see many signs from the models that Florence is going to weaken much at all before it comes to a near stop or slow drift.

  23. I am posting this NOT to emphasize hype or non hype so please ignore those sections.

    Rather, the article has an area “Rainfall and secondary impacts” that emphasizes not only what I am hearing on media but also what the folks (only three so not a great number) I have spoken to in Charleston have said. The land along this area of the coast is saturated already. Certainly, 15-20 inches along a good length of coastline and a bit inland for a period of time will cause tremendous problems. I am relieved that she will not plow into one area, but I am concerned that there may be no scenario with Florence that is really positive…..unless she turns around and heads out to sea of course. Most of all I am hoping that the majority of folks are smart enough to evacuated. Judging from the information on Charleston’s Post and Courier, I’m not convinced that is the case.

    Just some musings …

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/09/10/3-very-worrisome-facts-about-hurricane-florence/#1ebb0a573ca3

  24. Somewhere in southeast Georgia or northeast Florida might be 100F Friday or Saturday.

    Sinking air around the periphery of the hurricane with (20C) 850 mb temps and a NW surface breeze.

    1. Perhaps northeast GA, in somewhat diminished form.

      I’m sure some water level rises and waves will propagate southwestward along the immediate coastline, perhaps towards northeast Fl.

      1. Thank you, Tom. Was thinking of my sister in law in Atlanta but really didn’t think it would have an impact in that far…especially in view of what TK said about Atlanta the other day.

  26. My sister and brother-in-law moved to Camden, NC this spring. Despite what her new neighbors are saying, this is probably not her fault!

    Even though it looks as if they may be spared the worst, they are near the ocean with a canal in the back of the house. Their altitude is 3′. The neighbors have actually been wonderful to the new residents. Almost everyone in the are is staying put.

    My sister has a grandson at William and Mary. The college is closing and all students must be off campus by 5 PM today. My sister and BIL are driving to pick him up from school and then going to his parent’s house in Virginia.

    1. Most colleges are closing down there, some of which are being used for shelters according to a friend of mine. Her entire floor was moved. Basically the bottom half of the dormitories are being used as a shelter starting tonight.
      How do they like it down there besides for the hurricane threat, I am thinking of going to graduate school down there.

      1. They are from upstate NY and finally made the move south after several members of the family already did so. So far, they are very happy with the new area.

    2. Camden is a lovely area. I’ll keep your sister and brother in law in my prayers along with everyone in Flo’s path.

  29. I have to laugh, yet again, seeing news stories about it being “crazy” that the tropics are so active.

    Yeah, it’s the middle, PEAK, of hurricane season. It would be more “crazy” if it was dead quiet.

    Unfreakingreal.

  32. Still some issues on the south side of that hurricane, which looks larger than it is due to outflow.

    I am thinking now it’s down to high end CAT 1 before landfall, maybe low end CAT 2.

    Better scenario than it might have been, but still nothing to be taken lightly. What people have to understand is when terms like “catastrophic flooding” are used, this does not mean that everywhere in the influence of the storm will see this. It will be in relatively small areas overall, just very significant where it occurs. Same with the worst of the storm surge and peak wind. There is this mass thinking that a hurricane is equally nasty from one end to the other and that whatever the peak intensity WAS, still exists even after it weakens. It sounds weird but yes people believe it. I still have people today telling me that they can’t believe a CAT 4 is going to make landfall in NC, and I tell them you don’t have to believe it, because it’s not going to happen.

      1. TOO MUCH, unfortunately. I’ve paid close attention to national coverage of weather since I was a child, and comprehended it very well.

        If I had to apply a # to it, I’d say 25% good, 75% hype/misinformation/useless information.

        We can even see an example of this by going to YouTube and watching old posts of coverage of storms from the 1980s and even 1990s from TWC or maybe one of the cable news channels before they became the political news channels. HUGE difference.

        Look up the old weather channel clips of John Hope covering a storm. Or interviews with Neil Frank of the NHC. That was real information, not the bullcrap we all get now.

        1. I’ll repeat my question from above.

          So the comment that we have never seen anything like this on the east coast is a bit untrue???

          1. It is MAJORLY untrue. People need to look back at past storms if they want to make comments like that. There are so many things being said with no foundation it’s insane.

              1. Another thing I’m really tired of seeing out there right now is how “crazy” it is that the tropics are active.

                I know I already stated this above but just the fact that people think this is weird TWO damn days after the peak of hurricane season baffles me.

                Oh and the Pacific too? What, 9 systems if you include disturbances? Not even close to the observed record.

                1. I’ll volunteer for two hours in a room with him…with supervision now that I say that

                  Although I’m not sure who the supervision would be for

          1. Ratings.

            Even back when we had major storms threatening they didn’t all turn into The Weather Channel. There were just frequent updates.

  33. My aunt and uncle live in Sunset Beach, NC and have arrived safely at their daughter’s home in Lynchburg, VA. They are hoping to return on Sunday but will obviously need to see how this all plays out.

      1. Thank you Vicki. They have a beautiful home on a golf course and we had the pleasure of staying there when we made our trip to SC last year. Hoping for the best for sure.

  35. 1.26″ of rain here since about 12:30 and climbing.
    Pretty decent showers and downpours with occasional thunder.

  37. Even if the Hurricane does not make land fall as a catagory 3 or even 2 storm, It will likely feel like it as it just sits and spins off the coast and goes down. It very well could weaken to catagory 1 when it finally makes land fall. That storm surge could be devastating in areas and be more in the way of cat 3/4 despite the wind decrease just because of the fetch.

    1. It may very well be a TS when it finally makes a true landfall.
      I have been watching the wind gusts maps from Instant weather maps.
      The winds keep going down with each run.

      I really think their biggest problems will be storm surge and flooding rains.
      It has not been mentioned, but wouldn’t tornadoes be an issue as well?
      Or perhaps the slow movement mitigates that issue.

      The SPC has Eastern NC in the slight risk category for tomorrow. I “presume”
      this is due to a tornado threat. We shall see.

      https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1536783397410

  38. I think a “best case scenario” would be the HMON tropical model’s track. Keeps it moving and minimizes rainfall. Storm surge would still be significant. Rain and wind impact would be more narrow-swathed.

    1. How good is that HMON model? I thought that the HWRF was the go to
      hurricane model? and what happened to the GFDL model? Gone and replaced with HMON?

      1. Yeah, it’s OK from what I know. HWRF is better. That track would be OK too, at least in a relative sense. What we don’t want to see now is a meander – anything that would keep heaviest rain bands over one area for too long.

        I think the forecasts of 40 inches are too high, however.

        Also, that 83 foot wave thing being used for hype pisses me off too. Our winter storms produce waves in excess of 50 feet, sometimes in excess of 80 and even as high as 90 feet.

        Hurricanes produce waves that high over open ocean all the freaking time. It’s just another number being used for the wow factor. Not saying an 83 foot wave is unimpressive. It’s damn impressive, however it is also not that uncommon in this situation.

        1. the site I saw that on first, said its not uncommon with these storms to have 50 to 80 footers as it travels but the wave heights decrease as it heads towards land.

  39. There’s a headline today from a generally responsible outlet calling for “Days of Devastation “ – if or when that doesn’t happen the people who didn’t evacuate will claim “the last laugh” anyone else will be accused of hyping or buying into the hype. We are probably past the point in coverage where any storm could live up to this level of hype…

    2. This is why media should still be doing it like they did in the John Hope & Neil Frank days. All of that would be avoided. But stupidity reigns supreme apparently.

  40. Regarding waves, the Perfect Storm of 1991
    had a HUGE wave recorded.

    A buoy off the coast of Nova Scotia reported a wave height of 100.7 feet (30.7 m), the highest ever recorded in the province’s offshore waters

    So, what is all the hype about a mere 83 foot wave in the middle of the ocean??????

    😀 😀 😀

    1. It’s all about hype, and a whole new generation of people believing things that are just not true. The only thing true about it is that it’s truly sad.

      1. We can be thankful for SCs post. It gave me the ability to sit on my hands a bit longer than usual while I laughed at it. Fair warning ….I only have so much self control 😈

  42. Florence down to 120 mph.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/152637_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    INIT 12/2100Z 30.9N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
    12H 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
    24H 13/1800Z 33.4N 75.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
    36H 14/0600Z 33.9N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
    48H 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.9W 100 KT 115 MPH…NEAR THE COAST
    72H 15/1800Z 33.6N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH…NEAR THE COAST
    96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
    120H 17/1800Z 35.6N 83.4W 20 KT 25 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND

  43. My concern is flooding more than anything else, especially if the storm sits and spins for a while. Immediate coastline will get hammered by strong, destructive wind, but a large area will be inundated with rain that the ground and waterways cannot handle well given the saturation throughout the area during the summer.

    TK, I’m really glad about your doctor’s good news.

    Vicki, I hope all is well with you and that you know that we all very much appreciate your posts, point of view, and trips down memory lane.

    1. Thank you, Joshua. Greatly appreciated!! There is never a time I do not enjoy your input and especially your taking us on trips to other places and lifestyles.

    1. It absolutely is. And the trend has been DOWN a little since 1900.

      The storms are not really any stronger either. The way we measure them has changed. Applying this method to “older” storms has yielded higher winds than we estimated then in many cases.

  46. We certainly had more than just showers down on the South Shore today. Steady rain, heavy at times, as well as thunder and lightning.

        1. Ahhhh makes sense. I like your red days when parents have to stay close or arrange for transportation. Brilliant really.

  48. I think the media is hyper focusing on the wrong stuff, They should be talking about that storm surge not the wind. Florence won’t make land fall as a cat 3 but there could be times in which winds could be up there. Even when it weakens that storm surge is going to be very large and large coastal flooding. I also still think lots of rain with this storm, the heaviest of course to the North of the EYE.
    In other news two very important agencies FEMA and the Coast Guard got millions of dollars pulled from their budget. Even after last years disasters and it happened right when Hurricane season started. I won’t say to what agency that money has gone too, if you want to, go look on my facebook or twitter.

      1. Was tongue in cheek but appreciate the info.

        The rain may also be a serious problem. NC has large areas of farmland that has already had a great deal of rain. If Florence produces the rain feared, those areas are at great risk.

        I’ve been following both news stations and newspaper coverage in both SC and NC today. I’ve learned a lot about the area and the people. It is both impressive and moving

        1. Just noting the weakening trend and yes this will impact the surge. The threat is coming down a little.

  52. TK – About how much rain is expected for us from Florence next week? I have been hearing Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

  55. Well, let’s see if Florence maintains its state today.

    I think the satellite shows better convection wrapping around the core.

    Perhaps the hurricane is large enough now (wind field) to prevent a tightening up again near the center.

    Based on global models, wouldn’t be surprised if a bit of strengthening happens before this evening.

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