Tuesday Forecast

61 Comments

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)
A warm front crosses the region today, parented from a low pressure area in east central Canada. A separate low will be tracking south of New England and may toss a few showers close to the South Coast especially the islands off Cape Cod. Otherwise, look for a mainly rain-free day but an increase in humidity today, and then a spike in humidity at midweek as a cold front approaches. The timing of this front is such that most of the shower/thunderstorm activity will occur to the west during the day Wednesday, moving into the region later Wednesday night into Thursday before pushing off to the east. Although some strong storms are possible, this timing should spare the region severe storms. Refreshing dry air will arrive later in the week, but a few instability showers/storms may pop up due to colder air aloft and a still fairly warm surface on Friday. By Saturday, expect dry weather across the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of fog early to mid morning. Variably cloudy. Isolated showers South Coast. More humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms, favoring areas west of a Boston-Providence line. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Increasing risk of showers/thunderstorms west to east. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms likely, favoring morning and early afternoon. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)
Pleasant/dry August 11 as high pressure dominates. High pressure pushes to the south with fair weather and a warm-up August 12. More humid with a shower/thunderstorm risk August 13-14 as trough crosses the region from west to east. High pressure and fair weather return at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)
Dry pattern expected as the jet stream lifts to the north and high pressure builds into the eastern US, but look for increasing heat and humidity with time.

61 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  3. Thank you, TK.

    And NO……say it ain’t so. The caterpillar can’t predict winter? Next you’ll be telling me the ground hog cannot predict spring. Oh the travesty of it all.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.|

    The MUGGIES are definitely returning!!!
    Went to bed with DP = 60
    Woke up to 64
    Left the house and it was 65

    YUUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!

  5. Thanks TK
    SPC Outlook for tomorrow
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

    Tweet from Meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Will have to watch for mesolow development nearby Wednesday evening/night. May help increase low level wind shear and enhance severe weather threat.

    NWS Boston mentions what Ryan tweeted about last night
    Guidance has even started to hint at a meso-low center forming in the vicinity of the CT coast which would increase convergence and serve as a focus for an increased severe weather threat.

  6. I’ll believe it when I see it. The SPC has not been very keen on any severe
    threat around these parts. Could they miss it? Sure. We shall see.

  7. NWS Boston for tomorrow night bullish on severe threat. Even mentions possibility of rotating storms.

    1. thursday seemed to be good but it looks like it will be early thursday when we get the storms and that will be before peak time heating. TK mentioned this as well. the shear is impressive for early late wednesday night and early thursday morning (at least the 6z nam).

      Wednesday’s threat is too far west. Thursday’s theat is too early. leaving us with nothing probably lol.

        1. Looking at the 12Z NAM, Not sure what you are seeing.

          I see bulk shear at about 26-27 knots. Perhaps adequate for some activity, but Not all that impressive.

          If you mean helicity…that is not impressive either.

          We’ll see what later runs show.

  10. The SPC outlook placing western SNE in marginal risk looks good for tomorrow. This will be updated around 1:30pm today.

  11. This is not a severe weather outbreak tomorrow. With that said I would not rule out a severe thunderstorm somewhere in western SNE tomorrow.

  12. Thanks, TK…

    Back to school three weeks from today with teacher days.

    Sky has a “tropical storm” look to it today to me.

    1. Three weeks????? Didn’t you just get out last week or somewhere close to that? Good grief the summer is going too quickly.

  14. All of SNE in the marginal risk area. Will see if this changes tomorrow. Last Wednesday the SPC upgraded most of SNE to a slight risk prior to the afternoon thunderstorms that came through which included that 74 mph wind gust at Logan.

    1. …Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic into New England…
      An upper trough will move eastward across the Northeast,
      Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas on Wednesday. A belt of 25-35 kt of
      mid-level southwesterly flow will be present ahead of this upper
      trough, and will overspread much of these regions through the day.
      At the surface, a lee trough should be present to the east of the
      Appalachians, and storm development will probably focus along this
      trough by the early to mid afternoon. Upper 60s to perhaps mid 70s
      surface dewpoints will be present across the warm sector, and
      diurnal heating should encourage surface temperatures to warm into
      the 80s and perhaps lower 90s. MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg should
      develop along/east of the lee trough. Around 25-35 kt of effective
      bulk shear will be enough to organize thunderstorm updrafts, with
      multicell clusters probably the dominant storm mode. Strong to
      damaging winds appear to be the main threat as storms develop
      eastward through the early evening.

  15. No more updates from the SPC for Wednesday today. Tomorrow there will be multiple updates first coming while most of us our sleeping around 2am the next just before 9am and then just after 12pm.

    1. Ahh, I was about to say that is strange because my lightning display shows
      Nothing for New Hampshire, then I noticed you said Jackson New Jersey.
      A bit of a difference there. So sorry they closed it down, but sounds like
      the right move.

  17. It sure looks like it wants to rain around these parts. I see raining moving up from
    CT. Not sure if it comes up this way, but it sure looks close as to whether it will or not.

    1. It is dark to my south down toward Ct and RI. Blue sky to my north. And I’m stuck in the middle again.

  18. NATIONWIDE TEST OF THE EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 7, AT 2:20 PM

    This was posted on the Taunton Emergency Management
    Facebook page.

  19. From Eric Fisher regarding thunderstorms tomorrow
    Stormy day tomorrow. Most of the action 1-6pm looks west of Boston. Heading into the overnight, watching far SE Mass & the Cape. Not sure there will be enough surface instability to sustain good updrafts, but a veering profile and low LCLs is reason to watch for quick spin-ups

    1. I was somewhat concerned about that, but not so much for the Boston Area.
      “Could” we have another South Coast Special????

      We shall see.

  20. Another tweet from Eric Fisher with regards to tomorrow
    Current SPC outlook for tomorrow. IMO that slight (which really means’ very good chance’) area will expand across eastern NY and western New England

  21. I am not seeing a big severe weather threat at the moment. I do think there will be a locally severe storm somewhere in SNE tomorrow.

  22. From NWS Boston for tomorrow
    * Isolated Severe Weather/Localized Flooding Potential Wed
    Afternoon And Wed Night

    * Low Risk For A Tornado Wed Afternoon/Night

  23. I agree with them calling an isolated severe weather threat. Tomorrow will see if there is an upgrade by the SPC to a slight risk for parts of SNE.

  24. Today, I am in general agreement with the assessments by NWS as well as Eric & Pete who I caught on air a bit ago. The on-air mets were very careful to keep the hype sound out of their wording, which I like. Just matter-of-fact info, the way it should be.

    1. Awwww my two guys…..on air Mets. You are my everyplace else met. I never get why people watch other than main stations.

      1. I suspect with Pete and Eric and Barry and other really good Mets that their excitement can also come across as hype. Not to you, TK, since you know them and the feeling.

        Dickie was like a kid at Christmas when something was brewing. His excitement played a large part in my love for weather

        1. Yes. I agree. Sometimes their excitement is misread. They are all weather enthusiasts too.

  27. We don’t talk much about things that are quiet, but I’m glad to say the tropics look VERY QUIET.

    1. I think this will go on for a while. Everything is against development right now and it will stay that way for some time to come. Eventually we’ll see it wake up a bit, but it’s never likely really get cooking this season.

      I think NHC’s prediction was too generous with storms. And you already know that I am fully confident Andrea was never anything that should have gotten a name, and Barry was never a hurricane before landfall, so the season is even quieter than it has gone down on paper so far.

  28. Hi all, been busy the last week but also having some fun in the Virgin Islands. Went to St. Johns USVI the other day and went to Trunks Bay. Despite it being one of the more visited beaches on the island it was by far towards the top in terms of what I saw. Around 19 species of fish. (some only one or two species but others 5 to 7 species) It was amazing fish diversity. In terms of the coral it was extremely healthy. I saw Elkhorn, Lobed star coral, Mountainous Star Coral, 2 species of brain coral. (not sure exactly which ones), Sea Plumes, Common and/or Venus sea fans which look similar and ( wide mesh sea fan), sea whip,fire coral, encrusting sponge feather duster worm (which are full of amazing colors) Long spine urchin
    And what I thought was some kind of blue coral that I never seen was actually a Blue Bell Tunicate which is an amazing color.

    That was all in snorkel number 2. Number one was only a few fish.

  29. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Surface low moving through central New York may introduced an enhanced tornado threat around Albany and into portions of northern New England tomorrow. Lower risk here in CT… but certainly not zero.

  30. Eastern area threat

    Tonight …

    Global and Hi Res models coming into better agreement on potential
    two rounds of convection, one this afternoon and a 2nd round this
    evening and overnight from a trailing short wave to move across the
    area. The first round of convection this afternoon should impact
    northwest CT into much of western-central MA, possibly into
    northeast MA. The second round this evening and overnight appears to
    focus across RI and eastern MA especially southeast MA.

    Despite loss of daytime heating dew pts in the low 70s coupled with
    some height falls/cooling temps aloft models offering 1000-1500j/kg
    of CAPE across RI and eastern MA. This combined with trailing mid
    level speed max of up to 35 kt at H7 may result in a second round of
    strong storms tonight across RI and eastern MA. Strong winds and
    localized torrential downpours/flooding would be the concerns. Also
    given shear profiles rotating storms are possible.
    — End Changed Discussion —

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