Monday Forecast

53 Comments

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)
High pressure builds in today bringing the best weather of the next 5 days, sunshine, seasonably warm air, and low humidity. But things change in a hurry as a warm front moves across the region from southwest to northeast early Tuesday, re-introducing higher humidity to the region, which will stick around (pun intended) into Thursday until a cold front moves across the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will exist later Tuesday, returning Wednesday, favoring areas to the west, and Thursday, favoring all areas. Whether or not any severe storms occur remains to be seen, and something we’ll fine-tune in the next few updates. By Friday, that cold front will have moved offshore and we’ll be back into drier air, but some chilly air aloft will make the atmosphere unstable and we’ll have to watch for pop up showers and thunderstorms that day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-86, coolest coast. Wind light variable with light coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind S under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Mid to late afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. More humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms, favoring areas west of a Boston-Providence line. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms likely. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog evening. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)
The August 10-11 weekend looks dry and comfortable with temperatures averaging slightly below normal – a slight hint of fall days ahead. Warming back up the first half of the following week August 12-14 with fair weather to start then an increasing risk of shower/t-storms as the jet stream dips and a broad trough of low pressure moves into the Northeast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)
Fair, drier and cooler weather returns the first couple days of this period followed by increasing heat/humidity later in the period as the jet stream lifts to the north and high pressure ridging builds into the eastern US.

53 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Welcome relief today. I left the house to a dew point of 51. Ahhhhhhhhh!!!!!

    1. That looks about right based on model runs I have seen. But as we have
      all seen this can change as we get closer.

      In all honesty, so far, I am not impressed by the severe parameters I am
      seeing.

      Will continue to monitor.

      btw, I am still intrigued by what TK said yesterday re: Thursday
      Most curious am I.

  8. Thanks TK.

    Too bad that the awful (HHH) days will continue to greatly outnumber the top 10 days like today. Oh well, it is August after all.

    NOT looking forward to Tuesday-Thursday at all. Very much looking forward to the weekend though. 🙂

  9. From NWS Boston For Wed and Thurs
    Both afternoons CAPE values reach 2000-3000 J/kg with steep low level lapse rates near -7C/km. 0- 6km bulk shear is also similar each day, not great but certainly enough to support some organization and severe thunderstorms, around 25-30kts. Deep layer moisture is better on Wednesday, but Thursday may also see better surface convergence ahead of the cold front. A lot of factors involved, but the overall idea is for scattered thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. Some could be strong to severe.

  10. JPDave I was thinking the same thing. The part of the discussion that says Thursday may see better surface convergence ahead of the cold front.

    1. And a little more robust with severe parameters.
      May be getting interesting, but timing may be off some.

  12. So far SREF not highlighting any area of SNE for a potential tornado risk. One thing that looks certain at the moment it is going to get quite sticky around here Wednesday and Thursday. More than enough instability around Wednesday for thunderstorms to form.

    1. 12Z NAM was indicatimg a tornado threat for parts of the area, but
      that was from College DuPage site with the Soundings. Those threats
      on the sounding are generally over done, so we shall see.

      If it is not highlighted on the SREF, then I do NOT pay as much attention
      to it.

  13. I wonder if Pivotal is like the College DuPage site and also has a tendency to go high when it comes to severe parameters. When the SREF highlights an area that is a time to pay attention. It was highlighting the Cape for possible tornado development a couple weeks ago and there was a tornado there.

    1. NOT liking what I see there. And it appears Alaska will be a blowtorch.

      Back-to-back below normal snows around here. 🙁

        1. Funny thing is that I thought until a year or so ago that the wide bands meant a bad winter….based on comments above 🙂

            1. It was because before the snowiest winters, the band was very wide. We used to follow them at the barn.

    1. Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher · 6h6 hours ago

      What’s a warm September around here? Just as an example last Sept was 4th hottest on record and had 3 days in the 90s and 5 more in the 80s. The rest 70s and 60s

  20. As of yesterday, August 4, still some snow left in Tuckerman’s Ravine. This is pretty impressive given the toasty summer we have had.

    Hi-res shot from the Wildcat webcam:

    https://twitter.com/MWObs/status/1157976957910421505?s=20

    Should they get an earlier season coating of snow in late September (which is not uncommon at all), there will likely be snow on the ground every month of the year in 2019 on Mount Washington.

      1. Wish I could read French….

        Absolutely hilarious this guy brought his skis to ski down this patch!

        1. First paragraph

          The 2018-2019 season has undoubtedly been one of the most beautiful of the last years. My eternal quest to have the longest ski season in the east has allowed me to ski from October to July. I did not think I would ever be able to turn on the snow in August. Skiing in August is rather rare. We must go back to 2001 to find documented evidence of such a feat.

  21. Was at the summit of mt. Washington today. What a rare weather day, absolutely spectacular views of about 95 miles, and wind 10mph or less with a temp of 55. What a great day up there. Although a part of me wanted to witness at least some tropical storm force winds.

    1. Glad you had a spectacular day up there! Definitely would have had to hike a ways down from the summit into the ravine to see the snow.

  23. From Ryan Hanrahan
    Will have to watch for mesolow development nearby Wednesday evening/night. May help increase low level wind shear and enhance severe weather threat.

  24. The reality is this…

    The band on the woolybear means NOTHING about the coming winter. Anything in nature (vegetation, appearance of insect or animal, location of nest, etc.) are a result of past and/or current conditions. They cannot predict the future. It’s purely a myth, but fun nonetheless. That’s like saying tree rings will tell you what kind of a winter we’re going to have. No. Tree rings are a good weather log of past weather. There are no predictions being made there.

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