DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

A combination of warm advection cloud cover and Canadian wildfire smoke has our sky a hazy grey to start the day today, but we’ll break into some filtered sun at times midday and beyond, and it’ll warm up nicely, with many areas making a run at 80 for high temps, along with a gusty wind. This dry and windy combo also has our brush fire danger quite elevated. Any brushfires can spread rapidly on a day like today. This will also be the case tomorrow, regarding the fire threat, but the weather will be much different. A cold front sweeps through the region from north to south tonight, with a threat of a brief shower at most, and it’s right back to dry weather with a gusty wind and temperatures barely cracking 60 Wednesday. As high pressure builds over the region and the wind drops off at night, radiational cooling will allow the temperature to drop below 40 in many areas, exception urban centers, and even blow freezing in normal cold spots. The threat of frost and isolated freeze is there for early Thursday. Temperatures rebound by about 30 to 35 degrees during the day Thursday though, so the chill will be gone by the time we reach afternoon under plenty of sunshine and a sky that should be devoid of wildfire smoke, presenting as a more cobalt blue. High pressure will bring fair, warmer weather for Friday before a trough approaches Saturday with an increase in cloud cover but continued mild to warm air. Current expecting timing on the next unsettled weather event brings a shower threat by Saturday evening.

TODAY: Smoke aloft while clouds give way to hazy sun at times. Highs 74-81. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 45-52. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts from north to south.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers by evening. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

Cooling trend with dry weather returning May 21 and continuing May 22, then a slight warm-up preceding a rain chance and cool-down later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

Unsettled weather may start and end the period, and current cautiously optimistic timing suggests a dry Memorial Day Weekend with a cool start then a warming trend.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

A dry stretch of weather will continue through the next 5 days, with only one shower threat, and a minor one at that, being with the passage of a strong cold front Tuesday night. The front will be strong, but there will be little moisture to work with. That front is part of a pattern that while dry, will bring some temperature changes, most notably a shot of chilly air at mid week that culminates in the chance of frost and even some freezing that can impact early agricultural development Wednesday night / early Thursday morning, so farmers and local gardeners take note and monitor! Before that, we have a cool start and warmer afternoon today as high pressure shifts to the south, a warmer day Tuesday ahead of the cold front. After the chill-down we rebound again to warmer weather by Friday. So strap in, it’s temperature roller coaster time! Also another reminder of the high brush fire danger this week due to dry weather and periods of windy weather.

TODAY: Sunniest morning, then a cloud-sun sky share during the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

Still have to work out the timing of a frontal system moving through with a shower threat some time during the May 20-21 weekend, and whether or not a surge of additional moisture will make its way up from the south. Fair weather follows early next week, but rain chances return by mid next week. Warmest early period, then a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Additional unsettled weather is possible early in the period, then a return to dry weather is expected heading into the Memorial Day Weekend. Variable temperatures, coolest at first then warming.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

Dry times continue. You may recall some number of days ago when this period of time was further out, I prognosticated a dry pattern with temperatures dependent on wind direction. Well, here we go with that. Today’s going to be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday on a fresh northerly breeze behind a cold front that went through otherwise unnoticed. But still a very nice Sunday for Mother’s Day, and I wish a happy one to all moms reading this! Some high cloudiness may filter the sun at times today, this being the northern edge of a heavier cloud shield to our south as well as some streaming in via the Great Lakes region. A few fair-weather cumulus clouds may also pop up during the day. The Canadian high pressure area that delivered the brief cool shot will slip southward and turn the wind back to west and southwest Monday and Tuesday, when we’ll experience a warm up. Another cold front dives out of Canada and crosses our region with no more than a brief shower Tuesday evening, and puts us back into a cool air mass for Wednesday and early Thursday, but the next temperature rebound occurs quickly by Thursday afternoon as our dry weather / up-and-down temperature pattern continues. Of note, while leaf-out somewhat mitigates brush fire danger, it’s still somewhat present due to the dry weather and often breezy conditions. Use extreme caution with any open flame or anything outside that can spark a brush fire. They can spread quickly!

TODAY: Partly cloudy but still plenty of sun. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52 but may be a touch cooler in normal chilly spots. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early but diminishing.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

The warm up extends into the end of the week with fair weather on May 19. Current timing suggests a cold front will swing through the region early in the May 20-21 weekend with a quick shower threat and a return to seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather for the balance of the weekend, then continued dry weather and a warm-up early the following week (May 22-23).

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

The first part of this period looks a little wetter and cooler with a trough in the region, but we may quickly return to a dry regime right after that.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

We’re back in a dry pattern, which isn’t great agriculturally should it continue, but in the short term it does mean a really nice weekend! As previously noted, there will be some clouds around, especially in our southern sky during the first half of today, and a few more clouds may sail across the sky later today or this evening with a cold front passing by. But this front will pass by mainly dry, and will only serve to bring cooler air in for Mother’s Day when highs will be in the 60s after today’s 70+ in most areas. High pressure sinks to the south and we stay dry but warm up early next week, Monday into Tuesday. It’s only Tuesday evening that a brief shower may accompany the next cold front that brings in the next shot of cool air for Wednesday.

TODAY: Clouds over the MA/RI/CT sky give way to more sun but a brief sprinkle may occur South Coast early. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

Similar to the pattern preceding, overall pattern looks on the dry side. Warming up after a cool start to the period. Frontal system swings through looking like the early part of the May 20-21 weekend, a quick cool-down following it.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

This 5-day period may feature more of a low pressure trough governing the pattern in our region and a better chance of some wet weather at times along with a cooling trend overall.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

Everything from yesterday’s discussion is on track so far. A disturbance will bring a more substantial swath of cloudiness and some shower activity across the region from northwest to southeast this morning, followed by more sun, which can then fuel a couple showers and possible thunderstorms later in the day – though these look like they’ll be low coverage. A little summer preview in the way it feels too today with many areas reaching or beating 80 for high temps – exception South Coast especially Cape Cod and any other areas along the coast where wind has to travel over water, which is much cooler. Also the humidity level ticks up just a tad, not really enough to be uncomfortable but enough to be noticed. Saturday, we still have a secondary front to come by, but in general drier area will already be here and I leave only the chance of a morning shower in the forecast for the South Coast as I don’t think anything else will pop up. Don’t expect a 100% sunny day for all of the region on Saturday though. We’ll see a shield of high clouds especially across the southern sky for the first part of the day and then some patchy clouds with that secondary front from the northwest later. More sun should dominate on Sunday but with some fair-weather clouds probably popping up. We will have a cooler day on Sunday with a northerly wind courtesy high pressure to our west, but this is a case where “cooler” just means highs in the 60s instead of the 70s – still quite nice for Mother’s Day. Monday looks like a decent day at this time with high pressure keeping one disturbance well to the south, and the surface high’s axis of center far enough south that we get a westerly breeze, allowing it to warm back up to 70+ high temps for most of the region. Whether we stay mild again through Tuesday will depend on the speed of an approaching cold front from the north, which will also bring a shower threat at some point that day if it’s quick enough to move in. For now, I lean toward the mild day, and the late shower threat, but it’s day 5, so expect at least some tweaking to that, unless I guessed right this time. 🙂 Also of note, while there is still a little bit of smoke aloft, the thickest of it has pushed away from the region and it won’t be nearly as much a factor in the sky over the coming days.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers progress northwest to southeast and become less numerous through mid morning, then a chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm later in the day with most areas dry. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. An early-day shower possible South Coast. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

Watch for a push of cool air out of Canada with a gusty breeze on May 17, a moderation in temperature with continued fair weather May 18 and 19. Watching the May 20-21 weekend for potential showers at some point as a trough and frontal system move in from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

If the trough from the west later in the 6-10 day period is slower, this period may start with showers, and additional unsettled weather may visit by mid period as well with a trough in the region. Temperatures trend cooler.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

Bringing the short term into better focus leads to a couple detail adjustments on the forecast for today and Friday, and a minor re-tweak for the weekend (don’t worry, the latter is good). First, we still have a smoke plume wavering around the Northeast, via Canada, like a semi-transparent ribbon about 5,000 to 10,000 feet overhead, and that will continue to filter the sun that we do get today and Friday, but unlike the last couple days, we’ll also be contending with more actual cloudiness at times, and a couple shower and slight thunderstorm chances as a series of disturbances pass by. Timing on those: This afternoon, Friday morning, and late-day on Friday. Today-Friday will be quite warm – another preview of summer for our area. Although we will still have one more frontal boundary to cross the region later on Saturday, the latest trends in reliable guidance has been to largely evacuate moisture from the region that would help to fuel any showers, so other than the potential for a morning shower favoring the South Coast on Saturday, I’m keeping the forecast for that day dry. While Saturday’s high temperatures will be down a peg or two from the previous two days, it will still be a warm one. Behind that front, a northerly breeze between eastern Canadian low pressure and Great Lakes high pressure will bring pleasant air to the region for Mother’s Day on Sunday. A switch to a westerly wind should trigger a Monday warm-up. Different from my previous thinking is that I expect dry weather that day as moisture from the west that I had thought might get here, likely will not.

TODAY: Smoke aloft. Filtered sun through midday, more clouds afternoon and a possible shower and remote chance of a thunderstorm mid afternoon to evening northwest to southeast. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds exit evening but return overnight. Smoke aloft remains. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early to mid morning. Sun/cloud mix thereafter. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late day. Additional smoke aloft. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Additional smoke aloft. Lows 52-59. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. An early-day shower possible South Coast. Potential smoke aloft early. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Expecting a ridge to our west, and a trough in the Northeast, but not a deep one, and its axis a bit to the east. This pattern would feature a series of frontal passages with minimal shower chances, a mostly dry regime, and a few temperature swings. Should start this period with a cool-down, and end it with a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Shower chance early period, rain chance mid to late period, but low confidence forecast. Temperature trend may be down as well.

Additional wildfire smoke from Canada will give the sky a hazy look at times over the next few days. We had a one-day cool-down from a flow off the ocean yesterday, but that switches back to a regional land breeze today with a warm-up, and this continues into late week but with an opportunity from a shower as a warm front goes by later Thursday / Thursday night, and a chance of a shower or thunderstorm both Friday evening and Saturday afternoon from a pair of cold fronts that have to cross the region. This will lead to a fair and slightly cooler (but nice) Sunday, courtesy Canadian high pressure.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Smoke aloft. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny / smoke aloft. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a chance of showers early, then clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Unsettled weather early next week with low pressure passing through the region bringing a chance of showers or rain and a cooling trend, with fair weather returning later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

Brief shower chance around May 21-22 with passing trough. Rain chance increases at the end of the period with a potential approaching/arriving low pressure area.

Upper level winds brought a significant smoke plume across our sky from west central Canadian wildfires yesterday, and this continues into today, putting a veil over the sun once again in an otherwise mainly sunny sky. Some high clouds are crossing the sky as well this morning in association with convective activity passing to the southwest of New England, but these will exit at midday leaving us with just the smoke filter and eventually a few fair-weather flat cumulus clouds that may develop this afternoon too. An onshore wind in the wake of a back-door cold front will make today the coolest of this week, but a return to a land breeze tomorrow and the departure of the smoke plume will bring brighter sun and a warm-up. Thursday-Friday will be even warmer days but will not match exactly, weather-wise. High pressure keeps the weather settled with sun Thursday. Clouds and a stray shower or even a thunderstorm may cross the region, favoring western and northern areas, with a warm front Thursday night. This brings in slightly higher humidity for Friday, which those sensitive to may notice, and the approach of a cold front that day means more clouds and eventually the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms in the region, but at this point it does look like most of that day will be rain-free. Saturday, a west northwest air flow downslopping off the hills and mountains will keep us fairly warm and it will be a day with a fair amount of sun as well – a very nice start to the second weekend of May.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun & a few clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest at the coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Smoke clears out. Lows 35-40 inland with coolest in valley areas, 40-45 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a chance of showers early, then clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Fair weather hangs on to finish off the weekend on May 14. Unsettled weather early next week with low pressure passing through the region bringing a chance of showers or rain and a cooling trend, with fair weather returning later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

General pattern looks dry and somewhat seasonable though with variable temperatures. A weak trough in the region does bring the opportunity for a few showers here and there but no strong indications of bigger rain events.

This week, we don’t have to contend with any slow moving upper level lows. It’s a pretty straightforward outlook without much opportunity for complication, so let’s go over it. Today, a disturbance departing the region first thing has some clouds over mainly southeastern areas but these will exit for a mainly sunny sky and pleasantly mild to warm temperatures. Tonight, a back door cold front moves into and across the region from northwest to southwest, but with only a few clouds and no rain whatsoever. This sets up a fair but cooler Tuesday and early Wednesday, but before Wednesday is over, we’ll already start to see a moderating trend beginning. High pressure slides offshore Thursday and Friday with a solid warm-up. Thursday features sun, but by Friday some more clouds enter the picture, along with the increased chance for showers (perhaps thunderstorms) – representing the one and only shot at precipitation during this week – as a cold front approaches from the west. A hint of higher humidity on Friday ahead of that front will give the day a bit of a summer-preview feel in comparison to the lower humidity days that precede it.

TODAY: Early clouds, then dominant sun. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 39-46, coolest interior low elevations. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

Early call on the May 13-14 weekend looks great with high pressure in control, then an episode or two of unsettled weather early to middle of following week as some disturbances move through from west to east. Temperatures near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

Overall pattern looks mainly dry during this period with variable temperatures, often dependent on wind direction.

I’m writing a quick update for you today, and then I want you to get outside (f you can) and enjoy the beautiful weather today that we have in a nice mid spring pattern. A northwesterly flow today means dry and warm weather, with plenty of sun to start though clouds arrive later ahead of an approaching disturbance. Unlike the low of last week that hung around for 5 days, this one will be around for about 5 hours (ok maybe a tiny bit longer haha), with clouds and a shower threat tonight, mainly late night, before it departs and nice weather returns to us on Monday with continued warm weather. Dry weather will continue into the middle of the coming week, but we’ll bump the temperature down for Tuesday into Wednesday behind a back-door cold front and with a push of high pressure from eastern Canada, before we recover on Thursday, albeit with some clouds announcing the warmth’s return.

TODAY: Bright sun into afternoon, dimming and fading later in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late evening and overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early morning, then clearing. Highs 69-76. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

Look for more clouds and a shower chance early in the period with a disturbance and frontal boundary on May 12, then high pressure bringing another nice weekend to the region for May 13-14, followed by the next disturbance with a chance of unsettled weather early the following week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

Overall pattern looks mainly dry during this period with variable temperatures, often dependent on wind direction.

We’ve served our time in the dank tank, and now that the upper low pressure area has departed, we’re in for a nice stretch of weather. But there are still changes to talk about in the forecast going forward, even in this 5-day period. This weekend, it’s a dry northwesterly air flow in control, and I’ve had to make a slight adjustment to the sky forecast regarding Sunday. Today’s idea is the same: bright sun, but during the day it will have to share the sky with fair-weather clouds that develop in response to its heating of the ground and those thermal rising into the still-cold air above our heads. But these clouds will not be abundant enough to turn it mostly cloudy, or to release any showers, so we’re good really – just more of a decorative sky resulting. On yesterday’s update I thought we’d see wall-to-wall sunshine on Sunday, but I no longer feel this way. We start sunny after today’s clouds dissipate / move away tonight. But we’ll see an increase in high and some mid level clouds during the afternoon into the evening in response to convective blow-off with a disturbance moving southeastward out of the Great Lakes. While its remnant showers will miss the region, we’ll have to deal with those clouds dimming and possibly blotting out the sun before day’s end, but they peak at night, and decrease again Monday as the disturbance moves away. So look for that day to turn out brighter again. We’ll also see milder temperatures evolve during the next few days too – a nice change from the springtime chill we’ve had during much of the week. Speaking of chill though, a back-door front, pushed by Canadian high pressure, will cool us down toward the middle of next week, but it looks like it will remain dry, with no rain associated with the back door cold front that introduces the cooler air mass.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a mix of clouds and sun. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Bright sun to start, then filtered to fading sun by later in the day. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Decreasing clouds with dimmed sun becoming brighter. Highs 68-75, but turning cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH but developing coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

Overall pattern looks mainly dry, but there may be a few showers around toward mid period. Temperatures near to above normal during this time, but may be a day or two that vary more significant from coast to inland.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Watch for another high to the north and possible push of cooler air early in the period, then a transition back toward milder with unsettled weather in between.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

One more unsettled day courtesy upper level low pressure which has taken many days to move across the region – basically all week. But we’ll see improvement beginning this afternoon in the form of breaks in the clouds after a mainly cloudy, damp morning. More complete clearing takes place tonight and sets us up for a great weekend with a dry, milder northwesterly air flow. We’ll still have some fair weather clouds popping up due to lingering chilly air aloft on Saturday, but Sunday will feature full sunshine. Nice weather continues into the start of next week as well. We’ll remain mild Monday but you’ll notice some high cloudiness from a disturbance setting set to pass by to our south. The flow in the atmosphere will allow Canadian high pressure to send a back-door cold front through the region to cool us down somewhat on Tuesday, but my early idea about this air mass change is that it will just be accompanied by some clouds and no rain.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with patchy drizzle and a possible shower. Clouds break for sun at times this afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 63-70. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 70-77 except 60s some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

Canadian high pressure keeps it cool with a flow off the ocean to start the period, but this time with generally fair weather. Some unsettled weather follows as we transition back toward a westerly flow and eventually a warm-up with fair weather returning before the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

Watch for another high to the north and possible push of cooler air early in the period, then a transition back toward milder with unsettled weather in between.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

Two more days until the upper low leaves us alone – for now (keep the last 2-word phrase of that sentence in mind for beyond the 5-day period). Today, it’s the coolest of the lot, surface low to the southeast, upper low still overhead, northeasterly air flow at the surface, grey sky, patchy drizzle, a few showers, and below normal temperatures – as you’ve heard me say recently: in the dank tank! But not long from now improvement will begin. Friday, both upper and surface low pressure areas will be to the east of the region, pulling away, and while the sky will still be filled with plenty of clouds, drier air working in from the north will start to break them up with the sun chance going up as we move through the day, especially by late day. We’ll be rid of the wet weather and we will be subtly milder (or less chilly). Our weekend as well as Monday look fabulous with dry air dominating the weather as the low will be far offshore by then and high pressure will build in from the west. There will still be enough cold air aloft for diurnal fair weather clouds to pop up Saturday, so I’m not expecting a totally sunny day, but the two days that follow it should feature basically unlimited sunshine. A nice warming trend will take place during this time as well.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and a chance of passing showers. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and a slight chance of a shower. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 61-68. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75 except cooler some coastal areas. Wind NW up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77 except 60s some coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH except some coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

Our old pal, the upper level low pressure area (yes the one over us now) may retrograde – aka move westward – far enough to push a back door frontal boundary into our area before the middle of next week, thwarting the warm-up and altering the flow so that a series of disturbances approaching from the west during the period are shunted just to the south, but still close enough for some episodic unsettled weather. Will sort out the details as we get closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Low confidence forecast here given the uncertainty in the period preceding it. Going drier/milder to start, then a cooling trend to return, but an overall mostly dry pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

Upper level low pressure holds control over our weather for 3 more days. As it spins its way east southeast across the region, a new surface low will form to our south and slide northeastward to well east of the region between tonight and early Friday. This will help turn our wind more from the east and eventually northeast, then north as the system moves away. Occasional shower chances continue, with the window of highest opportunity being from this afternoon through midday Thursday. Additional diurnal showers can develop Friday with more sun’s heating. Any showers that are born of tall enough clouds can contain graupel or small hail due to the much colder air aloft and the size of the precipitation not allowing it to melt back to rain before reaching the ground. This weekend we will be rid of the upper low with high pressure building in. This will give us dry weather with a milder trend, especially away from the coast. Enough cool air lingers aloft for the development of fair weather clouds on Saturday but these should be largely absent from Sunday’s sky.

TODAY: Partly sunny, then mostly cloudy. Scattered showers this afternoon, some of which can be mixed with graupel or small hail. Drizzle may develop in some eastern coastal areas by evening. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in eastern coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

High pressure brings dry and milder weather early to mid portion of this period, then an approaching trough and frontal system from the west brings back the chance of unsettled weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

Drier pattern returns with a period of more seasonable temperatures that then trend cooler again later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

Upper level low pressure continues to plague the region with unsettled weather through midweek, lingering into late week, but exiting in time for the weekend. The center of broad upper level low pressure will gradually wheel its way east southeast. A decent spoke of energy rotating around it today, along with weaker surface low pressure passing to our west, will produce showery weather at times, along with a slight thunderstorm chance, but it will be on the mild side, except the South Coast where a southerly air flow is directly onshore. As the upper low continues east southeast, a new surface low will form south of New England later Wednesday and Thursday, close enough for a change of wind direction from south to east, then east to north during the course of these 2 days, with additional shower episodes. Once we get to Friday, we’ll be in a northerly surface flow with both surface and upper lows to our east, but still with enough instability around to ignite a few more showers during the day. By Saturday, we’re dry with just some lingering diurnal cloud development, milder inland and still cool near the coast, especially eastern coastal areas. But it does look like a much nicer regime once we reach the weekend – good timing.

TODAY: Limited sun, dominant clouds. Occasional showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Heavier showers may contain graupel or hail. Highs 55-60 South Coast, 61-66 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers likely during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, possibly mixed with graupel and/or small hail. Areas of drizzle especially in eastern coastal areas later in the day. Highs 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Highs 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in eastern coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

High pressure brings dry and milder weather early to mid portion of this period, then an approaching trough and frontal system from the west brings back the chance of unsettled weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

A little different outlook than yesterday – slower pattern evolution – with the potential for lingering unsettled weather during the first part of the period before another dry, mild interlude.