Thursday May 11 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)

74 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

Bringing the short term into better focus leads to a couple detail adjustments on the forecast for today and Friday, and a minor re-tweak for the weekend (don’t worry, the latter is good). First, we still have a smoke plume wavering around the Northeast, via Canada, like a semi-transparent ribbon about 5,000 to 10,000 feet overhead, and that will continue to filter the sun that we do get today and Friday, but unlike the last couple days, we’ll also be contending with more actual cloudiness at times, and a couple shower and slight thunderstorm chances as a series of disturbances pass by. Timing on those: This afternoon, Friday morning, and late-day on Friday. Today-Friday will be quite warm – another preview of summer for our area. Although we will still have one more frontal boundary to cross the region later on Saturday, the latest trends in reliable guidance has been to largely evacuate moisture from the region that would help to fuel any showers, so other than the potential for a morning shower favoring the South Coast on Saturday, I’m keeping the forecast for that day dry. While Saturday’s high temperatures will be down a peg or two from the previous two days, it will still be a warm one. Behind that front, a northerly breeze between eastern Canadian low pressure and Great Lakes high pressure will bring pleasant air to the region for Mother’s Day on Sunday. A switch to a westerly wind should trigger a Monday warm-up. Different from my previous thinking is that I expect dry weather that day as moisture from the west that I had thought might get here, likely will not.

TODAY: Smoke aloft. Filtered sun through midday, more clouds afternoon and a possible shower and remote chance of a thunderstorm mid afternoon to evening northwest to southeast. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds exit evening but return overnight. Smoke aloft remains. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early to mid morning. Sun/cloud mix thereafter. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late day. Additional smoke aloft. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Additional smoke aloft. Lows 52-59. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. An early-day shower possible South Coast. Potential smoke aloft early. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Expecting a ridge to our west, and a trough in the Northeast, but not a deep one, and its axis a bit to the east. This pattern would feature a series of frontal passages with minimal shower chances, a mostly dry regime, and a few temperature swings. Should start this period with a cool-down, and end it with a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Shower chance early period, rain chance mid to late period, but low confidence forecast. Temperature trend may be down as well.

74 thoughts on “Thursday May 11 2023 Forecast (7:32AM)”

  1. The answer to the quiz…

    Boston had 18 days of 80° or higher between March 1 and May 31 in the year 1977.

    2. Interesting on 2 counts.
      1st, I was close with my guess of 21
      2nd, it was the same year of the big may9-10 snows. Most interesting. Probably the whole reason you put that little quiz up in the first place. 🙂

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    How high will it go today. Happy to see that you put up
    to 83 for a high. I saw some mets with only upper 70s to 80 as a high and i felt that was too low. We “may” even exceed 83. We shall see.

    Made 73 here in JP yesterday and bottomed out at 54 this morning and now back up to 65 already.

    1. should be interesting. Wonder if smoke will offset fairly usual overachievement of temps.

  7. Logan hit 73F for a high temp yesterday around the same time frame Mt Washington’s summit hit its high temp of 38F.

    Mt Washington summit yesterday morning at 9am was 28.7F and currently its 36.6F. So, the airmass is definitely milder/warmer as of this morning vs 24 hrs ago.

    1. Do all signs point to an over achiever? I think so, but it will be what it will be. Curious to find out.

    1. unfortunately, that’s probably what it will be, their final call of the season.

      I really did have faith last year vs Milwaukee because they played D and would lose games last year with short mental lapses.

      Game 5 was a whole game malaise. The coach hasn’t cared about D all year. Can’t just flip that switch.

      The only way they rescue this series, according to how they have played this year, is if they shoot well from 3 pt land.

      Under this philosophy, they could win tonight on the road by 20 and come home and lose game 7 by 15,

  11. The Covid-19 Emergency throughout the world ends today! Our 3 year health nightmare is at long last over. 🙂

    March 18?, 2020 – May 11, 2023

    2. We hope! I don’t believe the pandemic is over and I still believe this is all wrong and if I am taken off this blog because of my opinion so be it. I don’t like wearing a mask but as long as covid is out there masking should still be in place – especially in medical places. I just came back from the hospital awhile ago for a test and not just patients but some nurses and doctors aren’t masking.

      3. Wife and I continue to mask and will continue to do so until we feel the risk is low enough. I HATE the damn masks! and we use the N95 masks that we can barely tolerate at a stand still. Starting exerting oneself and it is almost impossible to breath!

      4. If you are taken off, I’d sure be beside you. I have found that for the most part an opinion is respected and that most understand that having a different opinion isn’t faulting anyone. It is just another view.

        That said, not masking in any medical setting IMO is disrespectful. Many folks at hospitals are there with life threatening conditions. For a country that claims to have respect for disabilities, we have certainly failed here.

    1. I concur, Logan is at 73

      73 here in JP as well. 🙂

      Does not bode well for over-achieving. Oh well.

  15. JPD, if the N95 mask bothers you, I would think the ordinary surgical mask should still give you plenty of protection. I tried the N95 for a couple minutes once and it was quite uncomfortable for the reason you mentioned (breathing).

    Fwiw I gave up masking gradually last year and for good soon after I received the Omicron booster last fall. I still take some with me at all times though just in case and wear them in medical facilities where required of course.

    1. disagree. the regular surgical masks, although they provide “some” protection, don’t provide nearly the protection the N95 mask does. That is a fact. 🙂

      1. I wear the N95 mask also. It can be uncomfortable but better to be safe than sorry. I didn’t mean to start this conversation but between the masks and another issue at this hospital today that was totally unbelievable regarding how I was treated, I hope now we can now move onto the weather. Another beauty of a day – nice after all those gray days we had.

        1. You always give your opinions in a civil way and that is something I appreciate.

          It’s an example of how discussions can and should be had even when the opinions don’t match completely. 🙂

  21. Now 80 here and 81 at the airport.
    Now that the trees are fully foliated here in JP,
    our temp has been consistently lower than the airport.

    Although it does not contribute that much, I “think” it explains much of the discrepancy, I believe it is due to transpirational cooling:

    Transpirational cooling is the cooling provided as plants transpire water. Green vegetation contributes to moderating climate by being cooler than adjacent bare earth or constructed areas. As plant leaves transpire they use energy to evaporate water aggregating up to a huge volume globally every day.

  23. Disturbance number one is right on schedule. 🙂

    Some places will get a drink of water in the next few hours and many will not. Most of the places that get the drink it will be more like a few sips. 😉

    A couple of isolated gulps will occur. 😀

  26. The latest Drought Monitor Map shows “abnormally dry” conditions SE MA & Cape.

    Hope this doesn’t come any farther north but I have a bad feeling it will. Any general showers in the coming days TK?

    1. Overall pattern is dry.
      If you recall, sometime last year I indicated that I would not be surprised if we slipped back toward at least minor / moderate drought for a time in 2023, but that I thought it would be coming without a hot summer. Still feel the same way.

  27. Back in the middle of January, there was a potent offshore storm that we kept insisting looked at least partially tropical, but of course, nothing was ever done. Well, NHC acknowledged today that it was in fact a subtropical storm:

    Public Information Statement
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1100 AM EDT Thu May 11 2023

    …NHC Determines That a Subtropical Storm Formed in the Atlantic
    Basin in Mid-January 2023…

    Through the course of typical re-assessment of weather systems in
    the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) area of responsibility, NHC
    hurricane specialists have determined that an area of low pressure
    that formed off the northeastern coast of the United States in
    mid-January should be designated as a subtropical storm. Specific
    information on the justification for the subtropical storm
    designation, as well as the system’s synoptic history and impacts,
    will be available in a Tropical Cyclone Report, which will likely be
    issued during the next couple of months.

    This subtropical storm is being numbered as the first cyclone of
    2023 in the Atlantic basin and will be given AL012023 as its system
    ID. As a result, the next system that forms in 2023 in the Atlantic
    basin will be designated as AL022023, and advisories will be issued
    in AWIPS bin 2 (e.g., Public Advisories will be issued under AWIPS
    header TCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT22 KNHC). If the system begins as
    a tropical depression, then it would be given the designation
    ‘TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO’, and if it becomes a tropical storm, it
    would be given the name ‘ARLENE’.

    National Weather Service policy (through NWS Instruction 10-607,
    Section 1) allows for marginal subtropical systems to be handled in
    real-time as non-tropical gale or storm events in NWS High Seas
    Forecast products. This was the procedure followed for the unnamed
    subtropical storm in mid-January. However, the lack of real-time
    issuance of advisories does not preclude NHC from retroactively
    designating these systems as a subtropical cyclones in
    post-analysis, if necessary.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

  28. Going back through the blog, I found this:

    Woods Hill Weather
    JANUARY 15, 2023 AT 7:31 AM
    Interesting that NHC, which has had a habit of naming cumulus clouds over recent years, is ignoring what’s pretty clearly a subtropical low pressure area well south of New England. Maybe because it will never make a landfall and have an impact in any way differently than a typical cold core low, but you’d think they’d have at least mentioned it.

    1. I was talking to one of our fellow forecasters about this event at the time, and he was going crazy that they ignored it. haha!

    1. At this time of year we have some type of fly swarm around here, and the birds that just built nests in the area have been having a field day picking them out of mid air. They’re eatin’ good!

  31. CFS has a whole lot of negative temperature departures over the next few weeks.

    Kind of the same idea on the GEFS 8 billion hour forecast. 😉

    Cool tendencies into June.

  32. The Boston “Keltics” look pretty good so far. Up 40-26 as I write this.

    I spelled the team name the way it should be pronounced. They don’t say it right. 😉 Hard C, like a K! Not a soft C, like an S. 😉

    1. 46-30 5 min left in the first half. I never watch basketball. But I’m flipping back and forth between this and NHL playoffs (Hurricanes / Devils).

  33. For those of you who want to plan around the Patriots schedule…

    https://www.patriots.com/news/new-england-patriots-announce-full-2023-schedule

    Get your football breakfast plans ready for the 9:30 a.m. kick-off on Sunday November 12. 🙂 (Germany game).

    Pats also play only 2 times not on a Sunday (Thu Dec 7 & Mon Dec 18), of course pending the schedule for week 18, which can be a non-Sunday too.

    For the second consecutive season, they will play on Christmas Eve, this time a Sunday night game, finishing just before Santa arrives!

  34. Not a fan of the 76ers jerseys. “PHILA?” The way the L is written it looks like it has a period after it, so it makes it look like we’re playing the PHIL. A’s … Can’t they at least write “Philly?” or what happened to the “Sixers”? That was a better nickname for their full name.

  35. Will the ghosts of 1982 return to TD Garden on Sunday?

    1980s Celtics fans will know of what I speak of. :mrgreen:

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