DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Heat continues to build in as we close out the weekend and we’ll peak our hot days Monday and Tuesday. As we get to mid week a frontal boundary will get into the region and increase the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

TODAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning, then partly to mostly sunny. Fog patches South Coast early morning. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches in sheltered locations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 90-97, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of evening showers. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91. Dew point upper to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

A frontal boundary should be in the region to start the period with a higher shower and thunderstorm threat and less heat but still somewhat high humidity, and then high pressure from eastern Canada may sneak down and dry the region out but keep it on the warm side for July 3-4, before that high slips to the south, it stays warm but turns more humid later in the period. The confidence on this scenario is not particularly high still.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

No significant changes to the medium range outlook of a typical summertime pattern with weak jet stream to the north and a regional pattern of moderate humidity, warm air, and limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – June 27 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

Classic summertime in New England pattern over the next five days….. During the weekend we climb the ladder into the heat and humidity. Saturday starts out on the cloudy side with both low level moisture producing low cloudiness and higher level moisture and warming air producing a lot of high cloudiness above that, but the limited or no sun start will progress to partial sun as the day goes on, though South Coast areas may never really break out into much if any sun at all during the day. Cloudiness of both high and low but especially the low variety dominates again tonight. When we get to Sunday, the ability to break those clouds up improves and the amount of high cloudiness coming across the sky from the west will also lessen. Net result: More sunshine Sunday than Saturday. Also, Sunday’s heat and humidity will be more noticeable than Saturday’s. Then it’s the full heat for Monday through Wednesday to finish off June. Monday will have only the minimal chance of isolated air mass showers or thunderstorms, and I think this even remote chance will be absent Tuesday with some potential drying of the air mass and a more westerly wind, not always well-forecast by guidance. Wednesday, a frontal boundary from the northwest that will be held back for several days finally tries to make a run into this area, and while it will likely fail in its effort to fully get into and across the region, in its weakening form it can still be a better trigger for showers and thunderstorms, so those will be in Wednesday’s forecast, with room for adjustment as we get closer to it…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Fog patches at times South Coast. Highs 77-82 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SSW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Fog patches South Coast early morning. Highs 85-92, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches in sheltered locations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 90-97, cooler Cape Cod. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

Using guidance loosely and applying anticipated model error for early July outlook. Frontal boundary that approaches the region on the final day of June washes out over the region July 1 & 2 with each day running the chance of a couple showers and thunderstorms forming in the region, hottest day July 1, not as hot July 2, humidity high to moderate levels. Stronger front pushes through early July 3 from a not-well-forecast stronger high from Canada which clears the region for the balance of the holiday weekend with lower humidity but still warm for the balance of July 3-4. Heat comes back a little bit July 5 as high pressure shifts to the south. Confidence is not high on this outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

Still a low confidence forecast here too but overall idea is typical summertime pattern with weak jet stream to the north and a regional pattern of moderate humidity, warm air, and limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – June 26 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

It’s “warm front Friday”! While you were (probably) sleeping, clouds came up from the south during the night with areas of showers and drizzle. This will continue through midday today before we start to see some breaks in the clouds from south to north across the region as the front edges northward. This is the surface announcement of the door opening to a classic summer pattern, and rather early in the summer too. A Bermuda High will anchor itself off the US East Coast this weekend into next week and we’ll find ourselves in the classic hot & humid set-up starting Saturday and going at least through the beginning of next week. Initially, when this weekend and early next week were several days away, the medium range guidance was trying to bring a front into the region. This is not going to happen during this period, so the guidance was over-forecasting the ability of that front to get close to and get into the region – a reminder not to put too much stock in model forecast details more than a few days in advance. If we do see any rainfall after today, it would be from air mass pop-up showers and thunderstorms, though the risk of that in any one area during the period from Saturday through Tuesday is fairly low.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle with scattered showers this morning. Highs 75-82, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising into lower 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds gradually break for more sun. Areas of fog until mid morning. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point middle 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patches of fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 87-94, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog lower elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30– JULY 4)

There are conflicts between various medium range models at this time. Example: One model tends to keep a more of the same regime going with a gradual step-down in the heat as a weakening front brings some showers/storms to the region as it slowly moves through the dissipates. Another model keeps the heat around through July 1 then brings a stronger front through followed by Canadian high pressure with still warm but not nearly as hot and humid weather for the Independence Day Weekend. Given previous “misguided guidance”, we’ll split the difference for now and basically go with the heat hanging around at first, then lessening somewhat, but at least some chance of isolated to scattered showers/storms into mid period before a weekend drying trend for July 3-4. Tweaks will be needed.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

Low confidence forecast. Looking for a weak jet stream to the north and a regional pattern of moderate humidity, warm air, and limited shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – June 25 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

High pressure sits over the region today with another very pleasant weather day. Yesterday’s crisp northwesterly breeze will be replaced by lighter morning and midday winds and a developing coastal sea breeze, then a more general southeasterly breeze later in the day as the high pressure area starts to move offshore. Weather changes are coming though. A warm front will traverse the region from south to north during Friday and Friday night with lots of clouds and a few showers passing through the region, and the first of many days with higher humidity and warmer to hotter weather will occur Saturday, continuing through the weekend and on into the start of next week, as the main feature in control of our weather will be high pressure both at the surface and aloft anchored off the US East Coast – typical summer pattern. There will be a frontal boundary to the west and north of New England, but through this period at least, it will be held from making any progress into our region, and after Friday’s warm advection shower chance, the only chance of rainfall in the days following would be from isolated air mass showers and thunderstorms, but the chance of those isn’t even that high.

TODAY: Sunny through mid afternoon. Patchy clouds later in the day. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point rising slightly to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing through early afternoon, then SE 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point holding in lower 50s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few passing shower possible. Highs 75-82, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Fog patches forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm mainly hilly terrain far west and northwest of Boston. Highs 85-92. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patches of fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

Latest trend is for high pressure offshore to hold a cold front back to the west and north of the region that will only gradually make its way in with the help of a couple disturbances moving along a weakened jet stream to the north. The basic result is minimal risk of any afternoon showers and t-storms early and late in the period with a slightly better chance mid period. Temperatures should run generally above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

A weak or washed out frontal boundary hangs around early in the period and dissipates with minimal chances for showers/thunderstorms with warm and at least moderately humid conditions. A stronger disturbance may approach mid to late period with an increased chance for showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 24 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

An early summer polar air mass has arrived from Canada via the Great Lakes, chasing out the early week’s humidity and yesterday’s rainfall. High pressure builds across the Great Lakes today sending the refreshing air in on a northwesterly breeze. High pressure moves right over the region later tonight and Thursday with light wind, allowing an afternoon sea breeze in coastal areas Thursday. Both days will feature a lot of sunshine, but there will be a canopy of high cloudiness across Cape Cod for a while today, a few passing fair weather clouds will pop up and cross the sky in the prevailing wind especially over interior locations during the late morning and afternoon today, and some patches of high and mid level clouds will start to move up from the south later Thursday as we see the first signs of returning warm air above us, though these should not take away from the day’s beauty, and may only add some color for sunset at least in southern areas Thursday evening. Later Thursday night and Friday there will be more extensive cloud cover and a few passing showers are possible as a warm front lifts northward through the region. You’ll notice a bit of an up-tick in humidity on Friday but with cloudiness and a southeasterly wind for a while, temperatures will be held in check. But the warmth will come in with more force during the course of the weekend, along with increased humidity, as high pressure anchors itself off the Mid Atlantic Coast in the western Atlantic and a frontal boundary makes a feeble but failing attempt to move in from the northwest, stopping well short of making itself felt. Other than the chance of a pop up air mass shower or thunderstorm mostly well to the west and north of Boston Saturday and Sunday, it is likely to be a rain-free weekend.

TODAY: High cloudiness far southeastern MA filtering the sun morning before brighter sun takes over in these areas midday and afternoon. Sunshine and passing clouds elsewhere. Highs 73-80. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. A few fog patches possible interior lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny through mid afternoon. Patchy clouds later in the day. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point rising slightly to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point holding in lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible. Highs 75-82, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Fog patches forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm far western areas early. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm mainly hilly terrain far west and northwest of Boston. Highs 85-92. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Latest trend is for high pressure offshore to hold a cold front back to the west and north of the region that will only gradually make its way in with the help of a couple disturbances moving along a weakened jet stream to the north. The basic result is minimal risk of any afternoon showers and t-storms early in the period with a slightly better chance mid to late period. Day-to-day details can’t be determined this far in advance. Temperatures should run generally above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

A weak or washed out frontal boundary hangs around early in the period and dissipates with minimal chances for showers/thunderstorms with warm and at least moderately humid conditions. A stronger disturbance may approach later in the period with an increased chance for showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 23 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

A cold front will move across the region from northwest to southeast today. The extensive cloud cover ahead of the front and the early timing of the frontal boundary will work to prevent a significant thunderstorm flare up. A few clusters of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms are most likely from a Boston-Hartford line southeastward during this afternoon. However I’m not expecting any of these to become severe, though some may produce heavy downpours that make travel temporarily difficult. Otherwise, it just looks like a general area of showers will move up across the WHW forecast area from southwest to northeast this afternoon into this evening before moving away, at which time a dry, cooler air mass arrives. This sets up great early summer weather for midweek with a northwest breeze, sun & passing clouds Wednesday, and a sunny Thursday with light winds and a developing sea breeze, both days having very low humidity. High pressure which moves in from the Great Lakes Wednesday and right across the region Thursday will shift offshore by Friday and a warm front will approach the region with more cloudiness moving in during that day. There will be a shower threat Friday night or first thing Saturday as the front goes by and then we’ll find ourselves in a warm, more humid air mass for the start of the weekend. But any shower and thunderstorm threat with the next cold front should remain well west of the WHW forecast area Saturday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to general showers and thunderstorms midday and afternoon, with thunderstorms / downpours most likely in eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers during the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 53-60. Dew point falling significantly to the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point in the 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point rising slightly to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point holding in lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 75-82, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Fog patches forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Cold front moves into the region from west to east with warm/humid weather June 27 and an increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms, especially west and north of Boston, depending on expected timing. Frontal boundary may stay nearby June 28-29 with additional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms and warm/humid conditions. Front should push offshore by June 30 but upper low may produce a few additional showers or thunderstorms before drier weather arrives from the west end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

A weak frontal boundary may cross the region somewhere in the first couple days of this period with a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, but the overall trend is for a westerly air flow and typical summertime warmth with mostly rain-free weather and moderate levels of humidity overall.

C-19 Chat Post – June 22 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

Summer has arrived and this first full day of it will surely make you know it. Heat and humidity will be the story of the day as high pressure offshore pumps that air in from the south. A gusty breeze will counteract some of the heat if you are outside, however. As a cold front approaches New England from the west, it will likely spawn a line of thunderstorms in NY today that will make it into far western New England by this evening before fading out as it tries to move eastward, having run out of support to survive. Only a spot pop-up storm is possible well in advance of this during the afternoon, but even these I believe should stay outside the WHW forecast area. A tropical low pressure area (maybe classified as a tropical storm) will be passing to the southeast of New England on Tuesday. Once thought to have a shot at bringing our region more widespread rainfall, all it will do is add a bit of moisture to the cold front that is moving across the region during the day, bringing the chance of showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. The greatest chance for any heavier downpours may be over southeastern MA and Cape Cod as that area has the chance to warm the most before the front arrives. Regardless of rainfall coverage and intensity, the front does clear the region by Tuesday evening at which time the air mass will change as the humidity breaks and much drier air flows in from Canada via the Great Lakes. High pressure will move across the region by Thursday providing another very nice day, then offshore Friday, at which time a warm front will approach then cross the area from south to north, bringing more cloudiness and the risk of some light rainfall or shower activity as the humidity starts to creep back up again…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point rising to 70-75. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Foggy areas especially near South Coast. Isolated showers possible. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms especially midday and afternoon, greatest chance for heaviest and most widespread rainfall southeastern MA & RI. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SE.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A period of light rain or a few showers possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

A cold front will approach from the west then move into the region during the course of the June 26-27 weekend, with Saturday having only a small risk of late-day showers/thunderstorms mainly well to the west of Boston and Sunday having the better chance of showers/storms in the region. With high pressure offshore the frontal boundary may hang around for a couple days, with additional shower/t-storm chances, before being kicked offshore by a stronger westerly flow by the end of the period when an upper low may bring a few additional showers.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

A weak frontal boundary may cross the region somewhere in the first few days of July with a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms, but the overall trend is for a westerly air flow and typical summertime warmth with mostly rain-free weather and moderate levels of humidity overall.

C-19 Chat Post – June 21 2021

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

We’re going through the final hours of spring, but the atmosphere around here has already moved onto summer. Technically, the summer solstice occurs at 11:31 p.m. tonight, when the Earth’s wobble reaches the point which puts our sun angle at its highest of the year before it begins its long journey back the other way. But don’t waste time lamenting that the climb is done. Summer is just about to get underway and it’s weeks before we really notice a change in the daylight. I’d also like to wish any dads reading this a Happy Father’s Day! In our area it will be a very nice day for outdoor activity! It might not look that way initially in a good portion of the region that starts the day under a canopy of clouds, leftover from a departing disturbance. This disturbance was responsible for triggering a fairly widespread rain of showers and thunderstorms to the south of I-90 last night. But today, high pressure builds in and the humidity will be lower to the north and still moderate to the south, as the push of driest air is not all that strong. It will also be quite the warm day today. Tonight, the dew point starts to come up as we get into a stronger southwesterly air flow and higher dew point air just to the south starts to shift northward. This will set up a hot and muggy Monday as high pressure shifts offshore and the next cold front sits back to the west of New England. As that front starts to draw closer to the region later in the day and the first of the tropical moisture in the air mass that contains a tropical low from the Gulf of Mexico, some shower and thunderstorm activity may arrive in western New England, but for now I expect that this activity will occur outside the WHW forecast area during the afternoon. During Monday night, however, the continued approach of this front and additional moisture advecting into New England from the south will increase the chance of showers and possible thunderstorms, a trend that will continue into much of Tuesday as the front finally moves into and crosses the region from west to east. While the actual remnant low from the Gulf of Mexico, or what’s left of it, probably passes just southeast of New England, it will have added humidity to the air and fuel for the front to work on. Once that front goes by, in comes a fresh polar air mass via Canada and the Great Lakes and we’ll see pleasant, comfortable early summer weather by the middle of the week as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Wednesday then right over the region by Thursday. That would make Wednesday the “northwest wind” day that feels coolest and driest, and Thursday the pleasantly mild to warm summer day with slightly cooler sea breezes at the beaches.

TODAY: Early clouds exit from west to east, then sunny mid through late morning. Sunshine mixed with pop up fair weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s, highest near the South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind 10-20 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Foggy areas especially near South Coast. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 10-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point lower 70s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

High pressure shifts offshore. Expect a warm front to pass by sometime June 25 with some cloudiness and perhaps an episode or two of showers. Most of the June 26-27 weekend should be rain-free but the shower and thunderstorm threat will be just west of the region Saturday and likely shift a little eastward so that the WHW forecast area has a chance of a few showers and storms in the area by later on Sunday. June 28-29 stand the best chance of showers/storms with a front in the region. Obviously, the further out in time we get, the lower the forecast confidence, but this is how I foresee things playing out at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Upper level low pressure may hang around to end June with additional showers/storms possible, then a warmer/drier trend possible thereafter as we get into a more westerly air flow.