7:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
High pressure will be the dominant player in our weather for 4 out of the next 5 days, with the only interruption being Wednesday as a low pressure area moving west to east across the region sends its warm front / cold front combo through with some shower activity. During the fair weather days, the temperature and wind will be determined by the position of high pressure, the first area of which will start out north of the region today then sink southward over the area Monday and just to the south Tuesday, with a second high from eastern Canada influencing the weather by Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 46-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SE to S 5-10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
High pressure should be strong enough for fair weather September 13 but need to watch a boundary to the south. A front from the west comes through with a slight risk of a shower September 14 but overall the September 14-17 period looks dry with above normal temperatures as high pressure dominates surface and aloft.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
Brief interruptions with shower threats early and again late period in an otherwise mainly dry and warmer than average pattern as high pressure holds control much of the time.

10:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
Dorian is not done yet, giving Nova Scotia a decent hit today. Nova Scotia averages 1 hurricane landfall every 3 years (of course that can be very uneven, as that is a long-term average). Clusters of landfalls there have been observed at various times in weather observation history, seemingly related to large scale patterns, such as the AMO. And yes, Nova Scotia gets more landfalls than New England. It actually makes perfect sense if you look at the average hurricane path through the Atlantic Basin. Simple statistics. For New England, we’re not completely done with the impacts from the passing of the hurricane, with rough surf continuing through today into tonight before subsiding Sunday. Cloudiness has been dominant through the morning so far (10AM writing this) with the rain shield sitting over part of Cape Cod earlier in the morning, since having moved out. The drier air is in the process of eroding the lingering lower clouds as the higher deck of clouds from the storm’s circulation moves away. So the theme will be increasing sun as we get to and into afternoon, but still some cloudiness as well, but later in the day or definitely by tonight more clouds will show up from the northwest in advance of a cold front that will drop through the region tonight, producing nothing more than a brief passing shower in a few locations. This will be followed by the arrival of high pressure, bringing great weather to the region Sunday through Tuesday, with local variations based on wind direction and speed relative to the high’s position. By Wednesday, a trough arrives from the west with a warm front / cold front combo, lots of clouds, and a risk of showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clearing late morning-midday. Cloud/sun mix this afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty early, shifting to NW and gradually diminishing later.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 46-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind SE to S 5-10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
High pressure to the north with fair weather expected September 12-13 but may have to watch a boundary not too far south that could mess up this forecast. Front pushes through September 14 but shower risk looks minimal as high pressure ridging builds aloft and results in dry/warmer weather for the balance of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
Overall pattern will be dominated by west to east flow with a mean ridge in the eastern US, but a disturbance may cause a few showers and possible thunderstorms around mid period. Predominant weather will be fair with above normal temperatures.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
Hurricane Dorian will accelerate northeastward today through Saturday, the center making its closest pass about 200 miles southeast of Cape Cod early Saturday (around or a little after dawn). The hurricane will be undergoing transition to non-tropical during this trip, and when that happens, its coverage expands. This track and expansion will allow the remaining outer rain bands to make it to the South Coast of New England this afternoon and push northward through tonight, with the main rain area pushing across RI and southeastern MA overnight and first thing Saturday morning, before everything moves offshore and away. While a few of these showers some more likely some of the rain from the main area may be on the heavy side, the main impact from Dorian will be large swells and rough surf along the coast, where splash-over and some minor flooding is possible. Behind that will be a gusty northerly breeze and drier conditions for the remainder of Saturday, but in the evening or nighttime there may be a passing shower from a cold front dropping south from Canada. High pressure builds in with great weather Sunday and Monday, and this high sinks to the south with fair weather but a warm-up by Tuesday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of showers arrive south to north during the afternoon, best chance of heaviest near the South Coast. Highs 67-73. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives RI and southeastern MA, showers to the northwest. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH southeastern MA and RI with higher gusts, perhaps to 50 MPH or greater Cape Cod and Islands.
SATURDAY: Cloudy early morning with rain and showers ending west to east. Sun and passing clouds remainder of day. Highs 68-75. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty early, shifting to NW and gradually diminishing later.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 46-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
West to east flow dominates. Cold front slides through September 11 with a shower risk. High pressure builds in with fair weather September 12-13. Weak front approaches with slight shower risk September 14. Fair weather returns September 15.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
West to east flow continues. One or two minor systems may bring shower threats, but the overall pattern looks fairly dry with temperatures not too far from normal.

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
Minor adjustment in this blog update, slowing the arrival of the cloud shield of Hurricane Dorian, which will continue its track just off the Carolinas (bringing the eastern portions of those states significant impact from wind, coastal flooding, and heavy rain) during today, then accelerating northeastward while losing tropical characteristics Friday-Saturday. The center’s closest pass to New England will be about 200-250 miles southeast of Cape Cod about dawn Saturday. Large ocean swells and rough surf are the certainties. It is likely that rain will get into southeastern areas, with a period of moderate to heavy rain possible Cape Cod & Islands while lighter rain can get back up into the I-95 corridor. This will arrive Friday evening, peak Friday night / early hours of Saturday, then clear out quickly around or just after dawn Saturday. The remainder of Saturday will see a gusty north to northwest wind behind the departing storm as high pressure starts to build in. A cold front will pass through the region north to south Saturday night, pretty much without any notice, and high pressure will continue to build in during Sunday and then overhead Monday with some great late summer weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Brightest sun north, filtered sun south. Highs 70-77. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 56-63. Wind light variable
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 67-73. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern MA. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod & Islands.
SATURDAY: Cloudy early morning with any rain ending, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, shifting to W and diminishing late.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-53. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
West to east flow dominates. High pressure sinks south with fair weather and a quick warm-up September 10. Cold front slides through September 11 with a shower risk. High pressure builds in with fair weather September 12-13. Weak front approaches with slight shower risk September 14.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
West to east flow continues. One or two minor systems may bring shower threats, but the overall pattern looks fairly dry with temperatures not too far from normal overall.

6:51AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
The feel of summer will be with us today, warmth and humidity dominating, but it will all be shut off quickly when a cold front slices through the region from northwest to southeast later in the afternoon and early evening, timed with max heating so that we should see a fairly solid line of showers and embedded thunderstorms, with any of the thunderstorms potentially being strong. Behind this, cooler/drier weather will flow into the region as the front pushes off to the southeast. High pressure building north of the region will create a northwest to north wind Thursday and a north to northeast wind Friday. All the while, Hurricane Dorian, in a weakened but still significant form, will be tracking parallel to southeastern US coast from just off northern Florida to near the Outer Banks of NC, before it starts to accelerate northeastward, eventually passing about 200 to 250 miles southeast of Cape Cod Friday night and early Saturday. Saturday’s weather here will improve rapidly as any wet weather that got into southeastern areas departs quickly and clearing takes place. A cold front will drop out of Canada and across the region Saturday night and early Sunday and deliver a fresh cooler air mass for Sunday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog early morning. Sunshine mid morning into mid afternoon. A deck of clouds arrives west to east mid to late afternoon with a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms, with any storms potentially strong. Humid. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog until late evening. Less humid. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain by late-day, favoring southeastern parts of the region. Highs 66-73. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts toward Cape Cod.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern MA. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod & Islands.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, shifting to W and diminishing late.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a brief passing shower. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
High pressure dominates September 9-11 with a slow warm-up. Warm/humid but with late showers/storms possible September 12 as a front arrives. Front may stall with a chance of rain end of period as it turns cooler.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)
Dry weather returns early to mid period, cooler then warming up. Risk of more unsettled weather later in the period in a west to east jet stream flow.

7:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
High pressure builds in today with very nice weather. As the high sinks to the south and a cold front approaches from the northwest, we get a quick shot of early September heat and humidity Wednesday, but the day will end with a few showers and possible thunderstorms from that front, which will move through overnight, introducing much cooler air for Thursday and Friday. However during this time, Hurricane Dorian will be in the process of its re-curve and acceleration to the north then northeast, a process that will bring its center about 200 miles southeast of New England Friday night and early Saturday before it accelerates away. The impacts from this storm will be a cloud shield that spreads across the region Thursday, thickens into Friday when some rainfall may get into parts of southeastern New England. While it’s still a few days away it does look like the bulk of the rainfall will miss the region. The other main impact will be large ocean swells for several days, and rough surf mainly during the shortly after the closest pass of the system. Late summer beach visitor should exercise caution late this week as some waves can be very large and the rip current risk will be very high. As far as the weather, any rain that does glance the region Friday will be gone by first thing Saturday, which turns out to be a nice but breezy day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain by late-day, favoring southeastern parts of the region. Highs 66-73. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts toward Cape Cod.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern MA. Lows 55-62. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod & Islands.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
High pressure will dominate this period but the weather will change as the center of the high shifts, starting out north of the region with pleasant and dry air, then drifting more to the east before sinking to the south, turning the air flow onshore by mid period then eventually more southerly to westerly later in the period, with increasing warmth and a little humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
A few showers and brief cooling possible early in the period, a quick warm up, a few more showers, then a cool down later in the period as disturbances come along in a jet stream near the region.

6:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
A quick warm front / cold front combination will cross the region for this Labor Day and we will lose our dry weather to showers and a few thunderstorms. The day will not be washed out, but any time after mid morning is open to passing periods of wet weather, lasting through evening before drier air arrives overnight. High pressure brings a nice day Tuesday, warming up with a feel of summer coming back as many more people head back to school / college / work. A bit of a cruel joke from mother nature there, and that summer feel will last well into Wednesday as well, in fact for some, a run at 90 is possible as a southwesterly air flow grabs some heat to the south and pulls it our way. Another cold front will put an end to that by Thursday but ahead of it may come some Wednesday evening showers and thunderstorms. As we get to the end of the week, that front will settle just south of the region Thursday with somewhat cooler/drier air moving in, although sun that starts that day will probably be gone by the end of it as a larger shield of cloudiness associated with Dorian starts to move in. Now don’t go thinking that we’re going to be hit with Hurricane Dorian head on. So far, all indications continue to be that the hurricane, after the center barely staying offshore of FL/GA/SC and possibly scraping NC, will track northeastward and its center, in the process of becoming non-tropical (a transition that we often see at that spot) will pass well to the southeast of New England. But when these storms go through that transition they usually expand quite a bit in size and this expansion certainly will put southeastern New England under its cloud shield. The question is whether or not any of the rainfall gets up into the region and if so, how much would make it. We’ll answer that going forward, but for now, going to go with a period of wet weather arriving during Friday, favoring southeastern locations. Of more certainty are the large ocean swells and rough surf impacting the coastline later in the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 70-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring southeastern parts of the region. Highs 66-73. Wind NE 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts toward Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
Based on current thoughts, any impact from Dorian on September 7 should be early rain possible South Coast / Cape Cod, pulling away quickly, but lingering large swells and rough surf along the coast, with dry weather and on the cooler side with a gusty north breeze. Again at day 6 this is not a super high confidence forecast so details will be added as the outcome of the situation is more well known. Either way, the back half of the September 7-8 weekend will be pleasant, cool to mild and dry. September 9-11 we should see high pressure centered to the north and northeast of New England, like a couple other recent episodes, and a northeast to east air flow to start the period, then turning more southeast to south as the high slips off to the southeast. This would bring generally fair weather, starting out drier/cooler then transitioning to a bit more humidity and warmth later by the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
The first few days of the period look warmer than average with mostly fair weather as high pressure takes up residence to the south of the region and sends in a westerly air flow while the jet stream lifts to the north over a flat ridge of high pressure. A trough coming along from Canada later in the period could cause some showers then a transition to cooler weather.

8:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
Welcome to September, and a blog update that is essentially identical to the one written on the final day of August, because everything to me looks the same as it did yesterday. High pressure to the north sends cooler northeast winds into the region today with fair weather. A warm front brings a threat of some wet weather mainly later Monday, then the feel of summer returns Tuesday-Wednesday. A cold front passes by Wednesday night and settles to the south of the region by Thursday, which is the first of 2 days we’ll have to watch for indirect and a much lower risk of more direct impact from Dorian after it finishes a sweeping turn along the US Southeast Coast (center staying just offshore except possibly NC briefly as it stands now). At this point I think we’d just be seeing cloudiness move in during the day Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 71-78. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
September 6 would be the most likely day to be impacted by any rainfall from the passage of Dorian offshore. A New England landfall is highly unlikely. The storm may be far enough offshore that much of the rain remains over the ocean as well. Will monitor the progress. Of more certainty is large ocean swells and rough surf affecting both the southern and eastern shores of southern New England September 6 into the September 7-8 weekend before settling down. The weekend weather is likely to be pleasant, seasonably cool to mild and dry. Mainly fair weather and ocean-modified seasonably cool air will be around September 9-10 with high pressure centered north to northeast of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
High pressure sinks to the south over the Atlantic and a southerly to westerly flow develops for much of this period with a northward-displaced jet stream. This is a mainly fair and above normal temperature pattern for this area, and if it came to fruition would bring some very nice weather for the dwindling days of summer, pre-equinox, which would be just over a week away by the end of this period.

8:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
Labor Day Weekend: 2 1/2 out of 3 ain’t bad? Looks like a decent weekend, really, for southeastern New England. Our unsettled weather will probably hold off until most activities have wrapped up and people who were away are on their way back home, as a warm front crossing the region Monday brings a wet weather threat, but a lot of it probably waiting until later in the day or nighttime to pass through this area. Before that, it’s all about high pressure and a gradual wind shift from northwest today to more northeasterly on Sunday, so a cooling trend will result, but still quite nice. Out of the 3 days, today’s your best beach day. Once we get beyond the weekend, the feel of summer returns as a southwesterly air flow takes over. By later Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching, but may be doing so slowly enough so that some areas may make a late season run at 90. All the while, we’ll be watching Dorian to the south. For the last couple days, I have been leaning toward a scenario that keeps the center of the hurricane from reaching Florida. I am nearly certain of this now. The northern Bahamas will not be spared. And as the hurricane starts a northward movement, the Carolina coast will be vulnerable for at least a very close pass and possibly a landfall. A quicker acceleration of this hurricane would result in the possibility of a PRE event up here as early as Wednesday night, but for the moment any impact directly or indirectly related to Dorian is likely to be after this 5-day period.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NW 5-10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, coolest inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 71-78. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
The September 5-6 period is vulnerable for any impact from the passage of Dorian offshore, pending the exact track and speed of the storm. Certainly rough surf along the coast. There is the possibility of showers or a period of rain somewhere during this time frame as well. Drier weather is expected for the September 7-9 period as high pressure builds in. This outlook is different, timing-wise, than previously. This is why I had been mentioning previously that the outlooks were low confidence. Have tropical systems in the area, even without direct impact, can play havoc with prediction.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Still looking for a northward-displaced jet stream over a flat high pressure ridge and domination by surface high pressure much of the period as well, leading to a drier and warmer than average stretch of weather. There will probably be a couple temperature swings within this, however.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
This forecast period includes the 3 day Labor Day Weekend and the 2 days that border it. Maybe you made it an extra long weekend? I didn’t. I’m actually working Labor Day itself, but you don’t care about that .. “just get to the weather TK!” Ok ok! Here we go. High pressure centered to the south dominates today which will be a very warm and slightly humid day, typical of late August. A weak cold front passes by late today and kicks off no more than a brief isolated shower over north central and northeastern MA and southern NH. I didn’t have these in the forecast on yesterday’s blog but I am adding them because the moisture is borderline and I don’t want people to see one and think the weekend is about to go downhill. If you see one, 5 minutes, maybe 10, and gone. Behind this front comes another high pressure area for Saturday with slightly cooler and drier air, but still very nice if you have beach plans. As we get deeper into the holiday weekend, that high will slip off to the east and we’ll turn the wind more easterly by Sunday and southeasterly by the holiday itself on Monday, when a warm front will be approaching. So we’ll see some cloudiness and slightly cooler air Sunday although it will still be a very nice day. By Monday, more in the way of cloudiness will be noted and the wet weather threat will increase as a warm front approaches. If we get a period of rain it should hold off until later in the day, based on current timing. It’s very hard to string together 3 completely dry days in New England at any time of year, but overall this particular holiday weekend will be quite nice. By Tuesday, post warm frontal passage, we’re back in warm air and increased humidity but with fair weather as a southwesterly flow takes over.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny with the exception of some clouds and a possible brief shower southern NH and north central to northeastern MA late afternoon.
Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Risk of light rain, especially afternoon/evening. Highs 72-79. Wind light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
Hurricane Dorian’s path will have an impact on the outlook for this period. The storm is expected to impact Florida around Labor Day but what it does after that is still uncertain. It is possible that remnant moisture arrives here by the weekend of September 7-8, but that could just as easily head somewhere else ranging from the Ohio Valley to out to sea south of New England. So the outlook for those days is very unclear as of now. Before that, expect a warm/humid September 4 with a late-day shower or thunderstorm possible as a cold front moves through, then high pressure to bring pleasant weather for September 5-6.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
Currently expecting a flat ridge of high pressure and a general west to east flow with a fairly dry and warm stretch, but this can also change with respect to the remains of Dorian and how it can potentially alter the pattern. So the forecast is low to moderate confidence at this time.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
The rain event that was a combination of moisture from TD Erin and a cold front is exiting via Cape Cod first thing this morning, and today will turn into a fantastic late summer day, though there will still be some humidity in the air to start, it will be drying out gradually as high pressure builds, and this will continue, with warm air, through Friday. A trough will swing through the region from northwest to southeast Friday night, but looks like it will bring only some cloudiness but no rainfall. High pressure builds in for 2/3 of the Labor Day Weekend with nice but somewhat cooler weather Saturday and Sunday. Another low pressure trough will bring more cloudiness and this time the risk of a few showers by Labor Day Monday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy with showers Cape Cod very early, otherwise clearing and becoming mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65 Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light E.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. More humid. Highs 72-79. Wind light SE.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
Something going on far south of New England, that is Hurricane Dorian likely impacting Florida at some point on the Labor Day Weekend, will have implications for what goes on up here sometime during this period, which likely starts out warming up and turning more humid September 3-4 as high pressure sinks to the south. A front then approaches from the northwest in the September 5-7 period and could do anything from moving swiftly through to slowing down, with the complicating factor of remnant moisture from Dorian possibly getting involved, so this part of the forecast is very much up in the air at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
However things work out in the previous period, we likely see a shot of drier air to start this period then a warm-up and increasing humidity as high pressure ridging dominates the weather pattern.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
Get ready for a PRE. What’s a PRE? The letters stand for predecessor rain event, and the short explanation is that it’s a significant area of rain (usually in the form of numerous to widespread showers/thunderstorms) that extends out from a tropical system (depression, storm, hurricane). It does not always connect to the precipitation shield of the storm itself, although it can. In this case, it will be a rapidly developing area of showers and embedded thunderstorms just south of to over southern New England, starting this afternoon, peaking tonight, and exiting west to east in the early hours of Thursday. It is the result of Tropical Storm Erin as it tracks north northeastward off the Mid Atlantic and New England coast, and a cold front moving into and across New England from west to east. Behind this will come drier weather for the balance of Thursday, continuing through Friday and well into the Labor Day weekend through Sunday, which is the first day of September. High pressure initially centered from the Ohio Valley to near southern New England will deliver fairly warm air Thursday-Friday, and as the high center shifts more to the north and east so that it is situated in the St. Lawrence Valley by later Saturday and Sunday, we will see more of a northeasterly to easterly air flow and a cooling trend, somewhat like last weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers arriving from south to north during the afternoon. Increasingly humid. Highs 76-83, coolest along the coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms, diminishing west to east toward dawn. Areas of fog. Very humid. Lows 64-71. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with showers Cape Cod very early, otherwise clearing and becoming mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65 Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
High pressure should hold in place to the north of the region with an easterly flow for Labor Day Monday September 2 with dry weather but will have to watch for some ocean cloudiness in eastern coastal areas. There may also be some pop-up showers Monday but not looking for a widespread wet weather event. High pressure should shift southward with increasing warmth and humidity September 3-4 and as a front approaches from the northwest September 5 we increase the chance of showers and will have to watch to see if moisture from Dorian becomes involved. It’s far too early to know what, if any impact, that moisture will have, as the track of that system is not known for certain yet. High pressure from Canada should end the period with cooler/drier weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
The overall pattern should feature a westerly flow with a couple disturbances bringing shower risks around September 7 and 10. Temperatures near to above normal.

7:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)
High pressure brings another nice day today, then things change as humidity goes up midweek, a tropical system passes east of New England and a cold front moves through from west to east late Wednesday into Thursday. The only impact from the tropical system, which will probably be a tropical storm by the time it passes well east of the region, will be to increase the surf along the coast. The shower threat will come from mainly from the cold front. High pressure moves back in Friday with fair weather, which will hold on for most of if not all of Saturday, but we’ll have to watch for a risk of a passing shower as a trough swings through the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers possible by late-day. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a passing shower favoring southern NH. Highs 77-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)
Weak fronts in the region bring shower threats sometime September 2 and 4 but much of the time will be rain-free with fair weather, dominated by high pressure. Temperatures above normal with air on the humid side for the first several days of the period then some drier air may arrive at the end of the period behind the second front.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)
Pattern should be dominated by high pressure centered southwest of the region with limited shower chances and above normal temperatures.

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)
High pressure still centered in the Canadian Maritimes will continue to cause a northeast to east air flow and temperatures on the cooler side of normal through Tuesday, but other than some ocean-effect cloudiness and perhaps a sprinkle or some drizzle over parts of southeastern MA today, it will be dry. Low pressure, possibly a weak tropical system, will pass south and east of the region at midweek while a front approaches from the west. This will increase humidity in the region, along with surf along the coastline, and eventually the front from the west will arrive with a chance of showers, greatest chance from Wednesday night into Thursday. By Friday, a bubble of high pressure will build in via the Great Lakes with somewhat drier air.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudiness for a time southeastern MA with a bit of drizzle possible this morning, otherwise partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers possible by late-day. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Showers ending. Clearing. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
A weak trough moves through with a remote risk of a shower August 31 and a front moves through with a slight risk of a passing shower sometime September 2 otherwise high pressure brings mainly dry weather with temperatures near to above normal during this period, which includes the Labor Day Weekend August 31-September 2. The warmest of those 3 days is expected to be August 31.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
Pattern should be dominated by high pressure centered southwest of the region with limited shower chances and above normal temperatures.

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)
Another quick update with tweaks. The “interruption” in the nice weather comes today for parts of the region, especially Boston southward, with a batch of low cloudiness coming in this morning and gradually breaking up later. Before that happens we may see some ocean-ffect showers there. This is a piece of marine moisture that’s a little more concentrated than what’s around it, coming into the region on a northeasterly air flow thanks to high pressure centered north of here. But still, overall not really a bad day, just cooler than some would like for late summer while others are enjoying it very much. The air flow remains northeast to east but weakens Monday as high pressure noses closer. While it will still be cooler than average it may feel warmer than today for many locations due to less wind and less cloudiness. It then holds Tuesday with another fair weather day. By Wednesday-Thursday, low pressure passes south of the region and a weak cold front moves toward the region then through from west to east. The front may grab some of the moisture from the passing system to the south and our rain shower chance will go up at that time.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Areas of low clouds/fog central MA and southwestern NH early will burn off. Low clouds coming off the ocean from near Boston to Cape Cod westward across southeastern MA into RI with patchy fog and a risk of passing showers and drizzle mainly mid morning to noon then slowly dissipating. More sun elsewhere. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind light E.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers possible by late-day. More humid. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
Bubble of high pressure moves in with fair weather and slightly lower humidity August 30. A weak front or trough passes by August 31 with remote risk of a passing shower otherwise fair. High pressure returns with fair weather September 1. A stronger front crosses the region with a risk of a shower or thunderstorm on Labor Day September 2 with high pressure and fair weather following that for September 3, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)
Pattern should be dominated by high pressure centered southwest of the region with limited shower chances and above normal temperatures.