8:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
A secondary cold front is pushing through the region first thing this morning hence the cloudiness and a few isolated snow flurries. Drying should allow for the sun to become dominant as the day goes on but along with a gusty wind and chilly air. But this chilly shot of air will be short-lived, and our progressive pattern will bring milder weather right back in Tuesday and especially Wednesday as we get a “quiet” warm frontal passage Tuesday, basically the return of the boundary that comes through today. Another cold front will cross the region Wednesday, devoid of precipitation but carrying an area of cloudiness with it, but this will be the mildest day of this week. Thursday’s cool-down will pack less punch than that of today. When we get to the end of this work week and the first day of December on Friday, we’ll likely see a wet day, with temperatures mild enough for rain instead of any mix/snow, as low pressure arrives from the west.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Lots of clouds limiting sun through mid morning, a few spotty snow flurries, then decreasing clouds and increasing sun late morning on. Highs 43-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-39. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 53-59. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arriving during the night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
On yesterday’s forecast I had hinted of a possible cut-off low pressure area arriving Friday and hanging around into if not through the weekend. Current indications are that this system will be more progressive as it comes through here, slowing down once it is further to the east, with any wet weather departing by early Saturday December 2 and breezy, cool but not cold, and dry weather for the balance of the first weekend of December. The early part of next week should feature fair weather and milder than average temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
The pattern will start to become more amplified as we head toward mid December. However, this does not mean an immediate dive into colder and higher snow chances for New England. We may be temporarily trapped on the warmer side of the pattern for this particular period of time, with fair weather for a few days and then unsettled weather as the trough to the west begins an eastward advancement. Will closely monitor the evolution of this expected pattern change.

It’s no secret if you’ve seen my comments around the blog. I have struggled with this forecast more than any over the last few years. Examination of indices that help determine the long term pattern have been mixed to the point where I have not felt confident leaning too much in any direction. In such a case, I place more weight on a correlation of the weather pattern of November helping to determine the upcoming winter overall. This in itself, while a decent correlation, has been nowhere close to usable on many occasions. Taking all this into account, and placing a little faith in the November-to-winter correlation, the following paragraphs are my overall thoughts, month-by-month breakdown, and wrap-up summary of the what I expect to take place during the coming winter.

Drought is not so much a factor now as it was going into last winter. Although we continue to run a long term precipitation deficit, short term moisture was decent enough during a good portion of 2017 and from a couple events during the autumn to eradicate the ongoing drought and then put out a drought “flare up” that occurred during our warm and fairly dry stretch in early to mid autumn. I have examined current and expected indices including ENSO (which is expected to be weak to moderate La Nina), QBO (expected easterly), PDO (expected negative), AO/NAO/MJO among a few others. We can talk more about these as we get into the season on the blog on a daily basis. I also realize that these letters may mean nothing to some of you but just know that they have something to do with the large scale pattern in the atmosphere, and in some cases ocean circulation, and impact weather in certain ways. In addition, fairly rapid advancement of snowcover in Siberia, as well as eastern Canada, sets up plenty of cold air north of the border to be tapped. So even in an overall mild pattern we can tap the cold air and experience brief very cold shots of air behind departing low pressure areas. So these, along with the correlation for November mentioned above, leads me to the feeling that the winter overall will end up not all that far from normal in both temperature and precipitation, with a slight leaning toward the mild side of normal for temperature and a slight leaning toward the wetter side of normal for precipitation. Either of these, especially the precipitation, can be skewed significantly by 1 or 2 significant events. And even though we can say this about any seasonal forecast, I feel that the “bust potential” for this particular winter is a little above the average. How we will arrive at “near normal / near normal” will not be by seeing daily weather that fits the average for the date, but by high variability in temperature and frequent weak storm systems with the occasional larger one. Heading into the first 1 to 2 weeks of meteorological winter it looks like the current pattern will hold, and that is one of fairly dry weather overall with changeable temperatures, mild with brief periods of cold, a little milder overall than November had started out. The tendency for the atmosphere to develop a blocking pattern will be there, especially during the first half of the season. One trigger, stratospheric warming, which then disrupts the stable state of the polar vortex and sends it into fragments that then migrate further south, may very well take place toward the end of the first 10 days of December. With somewhat high stakes my leaning, based on fairly reliable guidance with these types of events, is to forecast a shift to colder with enhanced risk for snowfall during the middle and end of December. This pattern will probably not hold much longer than that and will probably adjust into a more zonal pattern similar to that of the early to mid portion of November, which was on the chilly and fairly dry side. This would be the dominant pattern for January’s early and possibly middle portion, but La Nina is going to want to put more ridging in the Southeast, and over time, we should see the pattern revert to the one that we currently have. Assuming La Nina peaks in late January and February, along with the continued negative PDO, during episodes of zonal flow with no blocking, the pattern would be fairly mild and on the drier side overall. Blocking can still occur with little warning and result in 1 or 2 storm systems of any precipitation type, dependent on air mass in place and synoptic conditions evolving during the event. Even with this leaning toward a milder overall pattern during the second half of the winter, we can still be subjected to brief periods of intense cold as Canada will continue to be on the colder side of normal with extensive snowcover. One last thing I am concerned about is icing events. Of course these can occur in any winter, but if we have a pattern that features mild air aloft and a storm system moving through, or even just a precipitation event with a frontal boundary nearby, the availability of cold air in nearby southern Canada can set up a situation where we have a warm atmosphere in all but the lowest levels, resulting in icing situations. The number, magnitude, and location of such events cannot be determined in the longer range, but just know that the possibility of such events this winter, in my opinion, is a little higher than average.

DECEMBER
Breakdown: Weak La Nina pattern. Zonal pattern overall first 10 days, blocking potential higher middle of month possibly into late month but may relax to zonal but more northwest flow before the month ends. Systems during the first third of the month would be more apt to produce rain versus snow, with the snow threat higher thereafter. A significant amount of the seasonal snowfall can occur in a pattern like the one expected in mid to late December, assuming storm threats line up to produce it.
Temperature: Near to below normal, arrived at by balancing a mild beginning of the month with a colder mid to late month.
Precipitation: Near to above normal.
Snow: Above normal.

JANUARY
Breakdown: If the pattern expected in mid December should try to repeat, as we sometimes see, it would likely be during the first half of the month in an otherwise colder and drier regime as late December’s pattern should be more dominant (zonal northwest flow). With time, expect this to relax and become more of a west southwest flow with milder dominant air and brief shots of cold as more of a ridge occurs in the US Southeast. We can see clipper type systems with the northwest flow, and a couple of Pacific systems when the pattern relaxes. Rain/ice/snow would be determined as always by the conditions in place at the time, but the tendency here would be for a somewhat wetter pattern by month’s end
Temperature: Near normal, arrived at by a balance of a colder start with a milder finish.
Precipitation: Near normal.
Snow: Near normal but high stakes as a big swing between Pacific systems producing rain or snow can mean many inches difference.

FEBRUARY
Breakdown: La Nina in its strongest state at this point of the winter should put a more persistent ridge in the US Southeast with the late January pattern continuing, the mild dominating and the cold shots brief but potentially intense.
Temperature: Near to above normal.
Precipitation: Near normal.
Snow: Below normal.

MARCH
Breakdown: Uncertainty abounds not only from it being several months away but the status of La Nina and other indices being somewhat in question. For now going to lean toward a milder and drier than average pattern, but with low confidence.
Temperature: Near to above normal.
Precipitation: Near to below normal.
Snow: Below normal.

WINTER SEASON OVERALL
Temperature: Near to slightly above normal.
Precipitation: Near normal.
Snow: Near normal.
-Boston 40-50 inches
-Worcester 50-60 inches
-Providence 30-40 inches
-Hartford 40-50 inches

8:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
The final 5 days of November will be fairly quiet but will start with a winter chill as cold air moves in today and lasts through Monday. A disturbance moving down from Canada may produce a few snow showers as far south and east as central MA and southern NH during this evening, otherwise dry weather is expected for this brief cold shot, and the warm-up that follows it during Tuesday and Wednesday. Another weaker cold front will knock the temperature back a little bit by Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-45 hills, 45-50 elsewhere this morning, then falling into the 30s during the afternoon. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers, mainly central MA and southern NH. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25 interior, 25-30 coast. Diminishing NW wind.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)
A cut-off low pressure area is expected to form over and just off the Northeast Coast, but the lack of cold air means that this would be a rain-producing system and impact the region December 1-2 gradually diminishing and pulling away during December 3. Fair weather would return for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Zonal flow pattern with quick moving systems, fairly weak, and a couple air mass changes. No major storminess expected during this period.

8:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
As we head down November’s home stretch we will see the fast-flowing weather pattern continue. The temperature warm-up that started yesterday will peak today and then get shut down by a cold front that comes through tonight with no more than a passing rain shower. Behind it, however, will be a shot of cold air for Sunday and Monday. There may be a few snow showers around on Sunday, especially late, as a disturbance passes by. A moderation arrives for Tuesday and Wednesday but the next cold front is due sometime on Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny start. Mostly cloudy finish. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures fall into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers, especially late. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-28. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
A fair final day of November expected then a brief period of wet weather to start December as another front comes through. Currently, the December 2-4 period is expected to be dry but may have to watch the evolution of a storm offshore from a trough cut off from the main jet stream. There are indications of this on reliable guidance and cannot discount it completely.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)
A little uncertain as the end of the previous period is also uncertain. For now expecting a departure of any cut off system and a fast-flowing pattern for the balance of this period with quick weather changes and no major storminess.

10:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
High pressure retains control today then slips offshore Saturday with a warming trend. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night bringing a few rain showers to the region, and a weak disturbance will follow this Sunday with a second disturbance crossing the region Sunday night, both with a risk of snow showers as colder air will have arrived. The cycle repeats again as high pressure is in control Monday, which will be fair and chilly, then slips to the south Tuesday which will see a warm-up.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny start. Mostly cloudy finish. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures fall into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Mainly dry with a mild November 29 and colder November 30. Rain or snow showers about December 1 then a fair and colder first weekend of December, based on current timing in this continued fast-flowing pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Fast-flowing pattern expected to continue and difficult to time northern jet stream energy and weak but occasional southern stream energy. Expect frequent changes in the weather but at the moment not seeing an indication of any major storminess.

1:45AM

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! I am thankful for being able to write this blog daily and share my thoughts on weather with you all!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
High pressure will move in for Thanksgiving Day but a very weak upper disturbance will approach the region by late in the day. High pressure centered south of the region will allow for a moderating trend Friday and Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night with no more than a passing rain shower as low pressure offshore stays out there, not impacting the region. By Sunday, the cold front goes by and we turn breezy and colder with some upper level energy triggering a few snow showers in the region. High pressure moves in with a fair/chilly set-up for Monday.
TODAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 39-46. Wind light W.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 26-33. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers evening. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
A significant warm-up is expected November 28-29 then temperatures get knocked back down toward normal thereafter with mainly dry weather overall.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Not going to say too much here as we will be in a pattern that may have more Pacific jet energy here and timing impossible to pin down so far in advance. Will fine-tune this going forward.

7:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Discussion…
Well so much for my “no travel trouble” a few days ago regarding today. Sometimes they just don’t work out so well. What I thought would be an area of rain largely offshore and a front with very little precipitation on it turns out to be that front helping to squeeze the atmosphere as a tongue of tropical moisture moves northward into southeastern New England on this day before Thanksgiving, resulting in widespread rain. So travel will be slow around the area today, though improvement will arrive at the end of the day and we’re still looking at a dry but chilly Thanksgiving Day as high pressure moves in. This will hang on through Friday as it stands now though some cloudiness is still expected as it starts to warm, first aloft, then at the surface, which will be much more notable by Saturday as we will be in the southwesterly air flow ahead of a cold front. This front will come through Saturday night when a few rain showers may occur. And as cold air flows in and an upper disturbance crosses the region Sunday a few snow showers may occur.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Overcast with rain and embedded downpours and thunder especially southeastern MA and RI, diminishing toward dusk when clouds may break. Highs 46-53. Wind light S to SW becoming NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH late day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Watch for patchy ice where the ground does not dry. Lows 25-31. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing toward dawn.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light W.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-30. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late day or evening. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Temperatures fall to the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
The tough that I thought may ignite a storm early in this period should be progressive enough to allow high pressure to move in with dry and cool weather November 27 and a milder November 28 ahead of the next cold front, which may bring a little bit of unsettled weather on November 29 or 30 with fair weather returning as December arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Indications are for a progressive pattern, weak systems, and a couple air mass changes. Will work on the details as the days get closer.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Discussion…
A couple adjustments will be made in this forecast. Giving more weight to the northern jet stream and less to the southern jet stream. I think one of the common difficulties the medium range guidance sets are having is over-forecasting the strength of southern jet energy and mistiming disturbances in the northern stream. So this is the current thinking: A mild west southwest air flow arrives today and boosts temperatures to the plus side of normal, something we have not seen much of this month. But this will be short-lived as a cold front charges eastward with an arrival time of Wednesday morning. While this is ongoing, a plume of moisture that had moved from the Gulf of Mexico to the waters off the US Southeast Coast will get drawn northward ahead of the front. As it starts to curve to the east, it should clip southeastern MA and RI with a period of rain Wednesday morning, but showers associated with the front should dry up as they try to cross the mountains to the west and north of the region. By later Wednesday, colder air will be flowing in and this will set up a dry and chilly Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. However another frontal boundary will approach from the northwest by late Thursday and some cloudiness will arrive in advance of it. Where I previously thought moisture to the south may fan some cloudiness into the region Thursday/Friday, I no longer feel this will be an issue. However, Friday may still turn out to have more cloudiness from advancing milder air from the west, and this should be here by Saturday for another short-lived stay.
Forecast Details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 54-60. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH mainly in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Rain likely Cape Cod and Islands and chance of rain remainder of southeastern MA and RI toward dawn. Lows 42-48. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy through mid morning with a chance of rain RI and eastern MA except cloudy through late morning with rain more likely Cape Cod and Islands. Clearing late morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 45-53 morning, falling through the 40s afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-32, coldest interior valleys, mildest coastline. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of brief very light rain NH/MA. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a rain shower late-day or evening. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Transition back to below normal temperatures in the November 26-28 period but I’m not sure yet of the weather details. Not completely letting go of a chance of a storm system the models still don’t see. Faster-flow may allow moderation the last 2 days of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)
Low confidence. Fine line between a block and zonal pattern as we have talked about. Will re-evaluate but for now leaning toward mild followed by cold with an unsettled period in the transition.

2:46PM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Discussion…
Again no major changes. Some temperature downs (today) and ups (tomorrow), etc. for this period with the most notable weather event being a period of rain favoring southeastern MA and RI Wednesday morning as moisture from the south gets drawn north northeastward ahead of a cold front. High pressure passes south of the region before this with today’s gusty and chilly west northwest wind and stray snow flurries giving way to dry and mild but continued breezy weather Tuesday. By Thanksgiving, we’re back into the chill but with less wind as high pressure moves overhead and hangs on into Friday with fair weather – though Friday’s sky may not be cloud-free due to some moisture to the south.
Detailed forecast…
REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT: Sun, passing clouds, isolated snow flurry far west of Boston. Highs 36-43. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 52-58. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain in the morning, especially RI and southeastern MA. Clearing afternoon. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s but may fall during the afternoon.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Weekend November 25-26 is mainly dry except a period of rain showers possible late Saturday or Saturday night with a cold front. Breezy and milder Saturday, breezy and colder Sunday. Still watching for a rain risk Monday November 27 that some models are not seeing as of yet, followed by drier and a brief chill-down followed by moderation. Confidence level still very low on the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
Zonal pattern expected with quick-moving, weaker systems and quick air mass changes.

1:15PM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Discussion…
Generally favorable weather for errands and travel during the next few days leading up to Thanksgiving which is Thursday November 23. A strong cold front is moving offshore now and the door is open to windy, dry, and colder weather through Monday. A plume of lake effect snow will reach western New England tonight and as it breaks up coming over the mountains I cannot rule out a stray snow flurry making it a little further east into the WHW forecast area. Still looking for slight temperature moderation Tuesday before the next front flies through on Wednesday, but an area of moisture to the south will mean that some of this may be drawn northeastward by the front. However I think most of this will remain south and east of the region, getting push back to the southeast later Wednesday and setting up a dry Thanksgiving. But with this area not too far away some high cloudiness may continue to fan back up into the region during the holiday.
Detailed forecast…
THIS AFTERNOON: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures falling into the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated snow showers north central MA and southern NH. Highs 36-43. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain or rain showers morning. Clearing afternoon.Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s but may fall during the afternoon.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Low pressure is expected to pass south of the region Friday November 24 (Black Friday) with some cloudiness but precipitation should stay to the south. Fair weather over the weekend November 25-26 with no more than a stray rain/snow shower on a cold front which before it will be a breezy and slightly milder Saturday and and after it windy and colder Sunday. A storm may be nearby or over the region November 27-28 which may start as a mix but be mainly rain. Low confidence on this.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
A more zonal pattern returns with a fair and chilly end to the month and then some unsettled weather and moderation in the first few days of December.

Please visit the contest page ( http://www.woodshill.net/?page_id=3218 ) and leave your guess for total snowfall, to the nearest tenth of an inch, for these cities…

Boston MA
Worcester MA
Providence RI
Hartford CT
Concord NH
Burlington VT
Portland ME

9:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Discussion…
The 5-day run-up to Thanksgiving is here and many will be doing errands, finishing yard work, and perhaps doing some outside decorating and then comes the travel period for those departing or arriving for the holiday, so this is a high stakes period for weather impact. What can we expect? Variety, which is typical, but nothing that should result in any significant travel trouble. Let’s break it down day by day… Today, high pressure slips away and a warm front approaches, but it will take until tonight for its rain to reach the region so outside activities that need dry weather are a go for today! The warmest part of today will be tonight when the front passes and temperatures rise, and being in the warm sector will make the region very vulnerable to showers and even downpours as strong cold front approaches early Sunday. This front will cross the region from west to east by late morning and midday exiting via Cape Cod by early afternoon. The mild air of the morning will be replaced by wind and cold during the afternoon and this will continue through Monday, which will have a winter feel. A few stray snow showers may make a run at the higher elevations of southwestern NH and northwestern MA during the day, but don’t hear the word “snow” and suddenly think the wrong way. It will be a fine day for travel – just very chilly and windy. Look for dry and milder weather Tuesday as high pressure slips south of the region and we get a piece of “backside warmth”, relative to the season of course. Another cold front will cross the area Wednesday and may bring a passing rain shower as we’ll still be in relatively milder air, but it will turn colder again behind this system.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Clouds increase / sun fades. Highs 45-50. Wind light SE to S.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain through midnight. Scattered to numerous rain showers after midnight. Lows 40-45 evening. Temperature rising into the 50s overnight. Wind light SE to S evening, S to SW 10-20 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with episodes of rain showers, a few possibly heavy, and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Partly cloudy mid afternoon on. Highs 55-60 morning. Temperature falling into the 40s afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts morning, shifting to W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated snow showers north central MA and southern NH. Highs 36-43. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs in the 50s but may fall late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
The front that goes by the day before will sit south of the region for 2 days and will allow a wave of low pressure to pass not too far south of the region and this will probably just bring a shield of cloudiness to the region later Thanksgiving Day and early Black Friday (November 23-24), but no significant weather problems are expected. More detail to come. Looking milder for November 25 and cooler November 26 as a cold front comes through during the weekend. During this time a short-lived blocking pattern may be establish and immediately amplify the pattern enough for a storm system to impact the region by the end of the period with odds favoring rain over anything frozen.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Amplified pattern delivers a shot of cold air to end November then moderating temperatures as December arrives and the flow flattens again. No major storminess expected.

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
Discussion (edit of previous)…
A dry but windy and chilly day today between yesterday’s storm system and the next one coming over the weekend. Clouds arrive Saturday but rain holds off until night, then lingers into Sunday morning before the wind and cold return and last into Monday before it moderates Tuesday.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Increasing sun. Highs 42-47. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 42-47. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening. Rain showers likely overnight. Temperature rising to 50-55. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Temperatures falling into the 40s morning then to the 30s by late afternoon. Wind W increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
A cold front comes through dry November 22 just turning it breezy and colder again, lasting through the Thanksgiving holiday November 23. Moderating temperatures and mainly fair weather for “Black Friday” and the weekend November 24-26 though rain may arrive by the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Storm favoring rain November 27 followed by fair/colder, then moderating as November ends and December begins.

3:29PM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
Discussion…
No major changes today with a system currently moving through that consists of a cold front parented by low pressure passing north of New England and a newly developing low passing across far southeastern New England into the waters east of the region by this evening. Showers will wrap up and just a few more additional ones may slide through from west to east as this system departs and then dry air takes over and fair weather arrives, albeit with a gusty wind and chilly air through Friday and Friday night. The next in the train of systems arrives later Saturday but we may get through most of the day rain-free. By the time it gets here any chill that was around early in the day will be long gone and we’re just looking at a rain event Saturday night and Sunday morning. Behind this system comes another bout of wind and the return of colder air during Sunday, which will see falling temperatures as it dries out. When we get to Monday, it will be dry but very chilly and made to feel even more so by a gusty wind which will continue.
Detailed forecast…
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Widespread showers end west to east. Temperatures 40s NW, lower 50s SE. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W but stronger at times over southeastern MA with gusts up to and over 30 MPH at times.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 33-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-47. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain by late day. Highs 42-47 by late day but rising to 48-55 at night. Wind light W morning, light SE afternoon, S 10-20 MPH overnight.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start with a chance of rain early, then partly cloudy. Temperatures falling into the 40s morning then to the 30s by late afternoon.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Pre-Thanksgiving travel weather will be favorable Tuesday/Wednesday November 21-22 with a cold front crossing the region producing only a few rain and/or snow showers most likely early Wednesday. Current timing suggest dry on the holiday November 23 with chilly air in place, then maybe brief light rain/mix possibly November 24 otherwise mainly fair and moderating temperatures at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
The final days of November are still expected to see a bit of a blocking pattern develop with an increased risk for stormy weather, watching around the November 27-28 time frame but odds favor rain over snow for southern New England based on current pattern expectations. As always will monitor as this forecast is low confidence.

3:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A small area of high pressure provides most of the area with nice weather today but its orientation allows a northeasterly air flow which will hold some cloudiness across southeastern MA especially Cape Cod. A front approaches from the west Thursday, parented by low pressure which will pass north of New England, but along the front a piece of energy aloft will ignite a new storm system which will result in a significant bout of rainfall. As the new storm gets north of our latitude by Thursday night, drier and chilly air will arrive from the west resulting in a brighter but brisk Friday. But the weather pattern is continuing to feature fast-moving systems and the next one will arrive during Saturday with rain arriving during the day from west to east, peaking at night when it will likely be the mildest part of the day, but be gone by Sunday morning which will be another day that turns blustery with falling temperatures as the next cold air mass arrives.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy except partly to mostly cloudy southeastern MA. Highs 42-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH over southeastern MA, light NE to N elsewhere.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 32-38. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving by midday and may start as brief snow/mix north central MA and southwestern NH. Embedded heavy rain and possible thunder later in the day favoring southeastern MA and RI. Highs 44-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with rain ending. Breaking clouds following. Lows 33-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east, may start as brief mix interior. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s late day or night.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy very early with any rain ending, then sun/cloud mix and windy. Temperatures falling through the 40s into the 30s by late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Thanksgiving Week looks mainly dry overall with one cold front causing a risk of a few rain showers late November 21 and possible snow showers early November 22 and another approaching front with possible rain showers by November 24. A cold/breezy November 20, milder and more tranquil November 21, then colder again November 22 and Thanksgiving November 23 before moderation at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Still looking at a blocking pattern with at least one chance for some storminess but low confidence forecast at this time. Will continue to re-evaluate the pattern going forward.