7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
High pressure hangs on today then slides to the east as a Pacific cold front approaches from the west then passes through the region tonight bringing a minor amount of rain with some freezing rain over the interior where it is cold enough. Then the story is the mild air for midweek, especially Thursday, when some record high temperatures may be challenged. Another cold front passes through Thursday night and cools it down slightly for Friday, but clouds will dominate and as the front tries to return as a warm front, some wet weather is possible later Friday. A stronger low pressure area will track through the Great Lakes and drag a cold front toward the region Saturday with wet and mild weather ahead of it.
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of a couple periods of light rain except freezing rain central MA and south central NH. Lows 30-38 early then rising slowly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 47-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 38-46. Highs 57-65.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late. Lows 30-38. Highs 45-52.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 40-48. Highs 57-64.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Dry, colder February 26. Unsettled weather February 27-28 with a likely Great Lakes Cutter low pressure system. Fair and colder behind this may be quickly followed by a threat of rain/ice/snow at the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)
Colder with another threat of rain/snow/ice during this period.

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
High pressure to the north delivers a chilly northerly wind for this Presidents Day and a cold night tonight as it noses down across southern New England and sets up radiational cooling as some snow cover remains in the area. A weak disturbance will approach from the west later Tuesday and may bring some patchy rain and interior freezing rain Tuesday evening. Though clouds will be more dominant than sun, we should see dry weather and mild air around for the middle of the week Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday night, another cold front will take the edge off the very mild air for the end of the week, though temperatures will remain above normal.
TODAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 11-17 interior valleys, 18-26 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of brief light rain except freezing rain central MA and south central NH evening. Lows 30-38 early then rising slowly overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 47-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 38-45. Highs 55-63.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-38. Highs 45-52.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Low pressure likely cuts through the Great Lakes and passes north of New England with a mild wet February 25 followed by a windy, colder, and drier February 26 behind a cold front. Another system may take a similar track February 27-28 with rain favored over snow before it turns colder behind this system for the arrival of March.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
The pattern is slightly indeterminate but the early indications are for a switch to colder weather overall and a storm threat of rain/mix/snow for a portion of this period.

1:43PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
We’ll have a mild time! The above normal temperature pattern is here and will continue through the next several days. A very mild Sunday will be followed by a cooler Monday (Presidents Day) but not significantly cold. Temperature rebound through midweek. The only issue will be the threat of a little rain and freezing rain Tuesday night from a weak disturbance passing by.
THIS AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy. Highs 48-56. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Risk of light rain / ice at night. Lows 18-25. Highs 38-45.
WEDNESDAY: Clouds followed by sun. Chance of rain showers early. Lows 30-38. Highs 50-58.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-38. Highs 50-58.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
A mild start and colder finish to this period with some unsettled weather, mainly rain showers, in between.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)
March begins colder with at least one threat of rain/mix/snow in the first several days of the month.

8:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
A milder weekend is underway, but if your weekend extends through Monday Presidents Day, then that part of it will be a little colder in the wake of a north-to-south-moving cold front and high pressure building across eastern Canada and nosing southward. The dry weather will last through Tuesday but a rain or snow shower may pass through the region Wednesday with a weak disturbance, if it has enough moisture to work with.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-33. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 30-38. Highs 39-46.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 10-18. Highs 37-44.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Lows 25-32. Highs 38-45.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Fair and mild early in the period. Episodes of wet weather and continued mild for the middle to end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
Trending colder. A mix/snow event may occur in the first few days of March.

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Shhhhh. The mini-trantrum the weather pattern threw has worn it out and basically put it to sleep. That nap will last through this 5-day period with dry weather, and only temperature changes, from a breezy chill today to a warming trend Saturday and Sunday, then a colder Presidents Day Monday into Tuesday as a cold front slips down from the north and Canadian high pressure builds to the north of New England.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 17-25. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-33. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 30-38. Highs 39-46.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 10-18. Highs 37-44.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Fair and milder early in the period. Episodes of wet weather and continued mild for the middle to end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
A mainly dry pattern expected but a trend back to colder weather is expected.

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
The latest bout of wintry weather, confined mainly to eastern MA and parts of southern NH northward, will move out during today, and then comes the proof that the comparisons to 2015 were just plain silly. Get ready for a long period of tranquil late winter weather with just some temperature changes depending on positioning of high pressure areas that will be dominant. See if you can follow along…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Snow showers in eastern areas ending by midday with minor additional accumulation possible. Highs 33-40 Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 12-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 29-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-18. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 20-28. Highs 44-52.
MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-43.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Current indications are that high pressure will remain dominant early to mid period with some unsettled weather later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
A mainly dry pattern but trending cooler.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
No significant changes. Low pressure approaches and moves through the region today and tonight but the 2 main pieces of energy don’t link up until east of the Gulf of Maine. We do catch some of the back lash from this system tonight and early Thursday but the major impact from it will be limited to Maine where more significant snow is likely. A more tranquil period of weather follows this with a cold start to it and a warm-up following.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of snow/sleet/rain. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, but a period of snow may bring 1-3 inches to far northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 25-32.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 35-42.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Highs 47-54.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Above normal temps overall, warmest to start the period. Next storm threat mid to late period likely rain versus snow but will watch it.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Mainly dry or minor weather systems but a colder trend possible toward the end of the period.

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
High pressure dominates today with dry weather. Low pressure approaches and moves through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night but the 2 main pieces of energy don’t link up until east of the Gulf of Maine, so we’re looking at a much weaker system than the last one. Upper level low pressure may kick off a few snow showers Thursday otherwise drier and colder for the end of the week but a quick warm-up starts on Saturday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow before dawn. Lows 18-25. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of snow/sleet/rain. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, but a period of snow may bring 1-2 inches to far northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 25-32.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
Above normal temps overall, warmest to start the period. Next storm threat late in the period likely rain versus snow but will watch it.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Unsettled weather early to mid period favoring rain/mix as pattern will be milder.

7:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Storm departs today with lingering backlash snow northeastern MA and southeastern NH this morning to about midday with wind picking up, again strongest along the coast. Dry and cold interlude for Tuesday. Next system comes through Wednesday with some snow/mix, but not a major storm as it will be a weaker system and not phase up with other energy until beyond the region. This allows dry weather to return late week.
TODAY: Snow with additional minor accumulation morning-midday northeastern MA and southeastern NH otherwise overcast, breaking and thinning with time with some sun possible later. Highs 28-35. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH inland, 25-35 MPH coast, with gusts as high as 45-60 MPH strongest along the coast.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow before dawn. Lows 18-25. Wind light SW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of snow/sleet/rain. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Highs 35-42.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
A warming trend with mainly dry weather then a risk of unsettled weather returning at the very end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Unsettled weather early to mid period favoring rain/mix as pattern will be milder.

12:18PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
The latest winter storm is upon us, and we’ll get right to it. There is pretty much no change to how I described the situation evolving yesterday. Low pressure moves just south of New England and then rapidly intensifies in the waters just to the east before moving away. We have precipitation today with a rain/snow line which will waver around, stretching from near Boston to RI, keeping southeastern MA including Cape Cod in rain for the bulk of the main part of the storm. A southeastward movement of this line in response to advancing cold air as the storm develops offshore will take place. And the wild card continues to be the amount of back-lash snow behind the storm Monday. The greatest risk of seeing significant snow from this continues to be in areas of northeastern MA to southeastern NH with the Boston area more on the edge. The strong winds will occur and will be most powerful near the east coastal areas including Cape Cod (see below for details on winds and snow accumulations). We will discuss the term “blizzard” in the comments below. Behind this, we’re still looking at a dry and chilly Valentine’s Day Tuesday. The midweek storm threat looks to me like a fairly minor event in comparison to the current one, with a progressive system coming through with snow or snow showers early Wednesday. I’m not totally confident on this yet and will re-evaluate this as we go forward. Looks like dry and colder weather by Thursday if this scenario plays out.
THIS AFTERNOON: Snow and rain, with the line between then from near or just south of Boston to southern RI, possibly moving a little to the northwest. Temperatures generally steady from the 20s northwest of Boston to the 30s to the southeast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH interior and 10-20 MPH coast but increasing late in the day.
TONIGHT: Storm continues with snow northwest, rain southeast, and the rain/snow line slowly making its way southeastward, lastly crossing Cape Cod by around dawn. Temperatures steady 20s northwest and 30s southeast evening, falling slowly overnight. Wind E to NE in southern areas, NE to N in northern areas, increasing to 15-25 MPH but gusts over 40 MPH near the coast and over 50 MPH Cape Cod area by morning.
MONDAY: Snow morning and midday will be steadiest and heaviest in eastern MA (favoring northeastern MA) and southeastern NH. Snow exits by afternoon, lastly on Cape Cod. Overcast may thin with sun trying to come out by later in the day. Blowing snow reducing visibility at times. Total storm accumulation for snow 1-3 inches Cape Cod, 2-4 inches southern portion of South Shore to southern RI, 4-8 inches from Providence RI area up to Boston, 6-10 inches northwestern RI through south central MA up to Boston’s immediate western and northern suburbs, 8-12 inches north central MA and southwestern NH, 10-15 inches Merrimack Valley to northeastern MA and southeastern NH with a slight risk of a few spotty above 15-inch amounts near Cape Ann MA to the NH Seacoast. Temperatures fall slowly to upper 10s northwest of Boston and 20s to the southeast. Wind N to NW 25-35 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH interior, 50-65 MPH eastern coastal areas, with an isolated gust above 65 MPH possible Cape Cod.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-16 central MA and southwestern NH, 16-22 elsewhere. Wind NW diminishing to 10-20 MPH with lingering higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow/mix possible morning. Partly sunny afternoon with a chance of snow showers. Lows 15-22. Highs 30-38.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Weather pattern quiets down with a cold start then some moderation.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
Unsettled weather returns during this period with a couple rain/snow threats.

8:01PM

This is just a quick update on how I think the storm Sunday and Monday will play out…

Some light snow/freezing drizzle Sunday morning over the NH Seacoast down to the eastern MA coast including Boston and its immediate suburbs will be a result of an onshore wind and not directly related to the coming storm.

The precipitation from the storm overspreads southern New England from west to east during the morning and midday, reaching the Boston area by 1PM.

A rain/snow line should be somewhere in southeastern MA and may move north toward Boston for a while, but by late in the day this line will start heading back to the southeast as the colder air wins out. It may take most of the night to make it all the way across the South Coast and Cape Cod so a good portion of the storm there may be in the form of rain. Elsewhere, snow will take over and be dominant.

The wildcard portion of this storm is how much back-lash snow occurs on Monday as the low center gets into the ocean water just to the east of New England and very rapidly intensifies. Right now the greatest chance of moderate to heavy snow lingering through the morning will be across southern NH and northeastern to east central MA, extending down through the South Shore and Cape Cod.

Blizzard conditions are possible along the coast during Monday morning. Blizzard conditions are defined by 3 or more consecutive hours of 1/4 mile or lower visibility caused by falling and/or blowing snow with winds sustained or frequently gusting over 35 MPH.

Ok, so about those snow amounts? This is tricky, but here’s my best guess, and highly depended on both a rain/snow line to the southeast and the amount of back-lash early Monday…

1-3 inches outer Cape Cod & Nantucket at the end, 3-6 inches remainder of the South Coast of New England, 6-10 inches interior southern MA to northern RI northward to about the Mass Pike including Boston, 10-15 inches over central and northern MA into southwestern NH, and 15-18 inches due to extra back-lash snow over northeastern MA and southeastern NH on Monday.

Please understand that these snow amounts are still subject to change and I will update this when needed!

The remainder of this post is from earlier today but has been edited slightly.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-30 north to south. Wind light variable becoming NE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Spotty very light snow or freezing drizzle near the MA/NH East Coast in the morning. Snow develops west to east midday and afternoon except mix/rain southeastern MA and southern RI. Highs 25-40 north to south. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain/snow line moves southeastward, crossing Cape Cod lastly overnight. Snow elsewhere. Temperatures 20s north, 30s south, but falling slowly. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of snow favoring eastern areas with heaviest most likely northeastern MA and southeastern NH. See above for accumulations. Temperatures falling to 20s. Wind NE to N 25-35 MPH gusts above 50 MPH interior and above 60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 25-35.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
Snow showers possible to start the period then fair and cold weather dominating, moderating late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Pattern transition underway here but there may be another storm threat during this.

10:56AM

This will be the first of 2 blog entries between today and later tonight to better update for the evolving storm situation for Sunday and early Monday.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
The latest “event” is about done here as a general 1 to 3 inch snowfall occurred overnight and early this morning. Only some spotty very light snow remains, almost like snow-drizzle, or “snizzle” as it has been often termed, over eastern MA and southeastern NH as this is really a warm front trying to press through. It will do that during the day and we will see some breaks in the clouds and sun, but the greatest amount of this will be to the southwest and south of Boston. But the break will be short-lived. The next system, a stronger low, will approach from the west on Sunday. We do know that this system will intensify rapidly once it reaches the ocean Sunday night and Monday, and the critical part of the forecast, in terms of where a rain/snow line is and how much snow falls, is the track, orientation, and rate of deepening of this system. This will come down to almost an hour-by-hour thing as we go along, but this forecast will reflect that I currently feel a very sharp line will exist between not much snow and much more snow, somewhere in the I-95 belt. But again this is not a certainty and there is plenty of room for adjustment. Please keep that in mind. One thing we do know with a certainty is that powerful winds are going to occur especially Monday as the deepening storm starts to pull away via the Gulf of Maine to the waters south of Nova Scotia. Beyond this, look for a fair and cold Valentine’s Day Tuesday, and the next unsettled weather threat quickly arriving by Wednesday. This system will likely bring a threat of snow or snow showers and I am far from knowing its exact evolution. Revisiting this next update and again tomorrow.
TODAY: Clouds dominate. Partial sun develops Boston area south and southwest. Spotty very light snow north of Boston to southeastern NH through midday. Highs 28-35 north, 35-42 south. Wind light variable, mainly SE in northern areas and SW in southern areas.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-30 north to south. Wind light variable becoming NE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Spotty very light snow or freezing drizzle near the MA/NH East Coast in the morning. Snow develops west to east midday and afternoon except mix/rain South Coast. Highs 30-40 north to south. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain/mix southeastern MA and southern RI, mix/snow elsewhere – details to be worked out. Steady or slightly rising temperatures. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of snow favoring eastern areas with heaviest most likely northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Significant snow accumulation for this event possible many areas but especially just north and west of Boston extending westward and northward from there. Will add numbers to prediction on next update. Temperatures falling to 20s. Wind NE to N 25-35 MPH gusts above 40 MPH interior and above 50 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 25-35.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
Snow showers possible to start the period then fair and cold weather dominating, moderating late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Pattern transition underway here but there may be another storm threat during this.

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Frigid Friday morning in the arctic air mass behind the winter storm. But the fast moving pattern continues and next we’re talking about a minor snowfall from a much smaller low pressure system early Saturday. A stronger system on its heals arrives later Sunday and departs Monday and this one will be a little more interesting, pending its evolution, which will determine its impact in terms of precipitation type and location. Will fine-tune this starting later today and early in the weekend. Cold air follows that system either way.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow toward dawn. Lows 10-18. Wind W to S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow of 1-3 inches except under 1 inch South Coast with snow/rain mix. Partial clearing afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Wind light SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/mix late in the day or at night. Highs 35-42. Wind light SE.
MONDAY: Rain/mix/snow possible early. Windy. Temperatures mainly 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Cold pattern continues with another storm threat early in the period, coldest weather mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
cold patter eases, milder and drier trend.

2:51AM

DAY 1 (TODAY’S STORM)
I’ve decided to isolate “day 1” into its own section for the purposes of this weather event. You may remember recent reminders of poor computer model performance beyond 3 days and a weather pattern that can produce a renegade big snow event with not a lot of warning. Well, here it is. This storm is coming today as low pressure tracks east northeast off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast and tracks just south of New England while intensifying rapidly, during which time it will gather Atlantic moisture and throw it into much colder air, which follows a Wednesday that started very icy but ended up feeling like spring. Classic changeable New England weather – it’s really nothing new. So let’s run through a break down of the storm and just incorporate today’s and tonight’s detailed forecast into this…
START: Should be underway already by dawn in western and central MA to southwestern NH, and much of CT, then rapidly advance eastward so that Boston and Providence are into the snow by 8AM and areas to the southeast of there are underway shortly thereafter.
PRECIPITATION TYPE: May start as rain in far southeastern MA, especially cape Cod and the Islands, and perhaps far southern RI, but here it will change to snow and be a wet to average consistency snow, staying wettest on Nantucket, which may take until early afternoon to go to snow. Elsewhere, it’s all snow, of average consistency near the South Shore for a while before becoming lower water content later, and a dry/fluffy snow for the remainder of the region.
PEAK TIME: 9AM-2PM CT / central MA / southwestern NH, 10AM-4PM RI / eastern MA / southeastern NH. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour will be common during the peak time, especially under bands of heavier snow that set up. It’s always difficult to say where these will be more than a few hours in advance, and even closer to the occurrence, so will monitor and update.
COASTAL FRONT: This feature is a boundary, like a localized front, that marks the edge of very cold air over inland areas and less cold air from the ocean. In this case, northeast winds will be blowing in the region to the east of the boundary, while to the west the are blowing from the north in the much colder air. This creates an area of convergence of air and results in rising air which then results in a band of heavier precipitation. The most likely spot for this to set up is from Boston to just inland of the South Shore.
THUNDERSNOW: Yes, lightning and thunder are possible with the heavier snow bands.
END TIME: Connecticut Valley and Hartford area about 5PM, Worcester MA north and south by 7PM, Boston area north and south by 9PM, and final flakes exiting Cape Cod by 11PM or midnight.
SNOW ACCUMULATION: Widespread 10-15 inches for most locations. Exceptions, under 10 inches in portions of southwestern NH to north central MA and in a few valley areas and probably over Nantucket due to a wetter snow. Pockets of greater than 15 inches are very possible especially associated with heavier precipitation banding which is common with rapidly-intensifying storm systems.
TEMPERATURE: Starting out in the 30s over far southeastern MA and southern RI but falling to the upper 20s here by late-day, mainly from the middle and lower 20s to upper 10s elsewhere. There may also be a sharp contrast in temperature from near 30 just east of the coastal front to near 20 just west of it. By tonight, all areas fall to overnight lows of 5-13.
WIND: NE increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts as high as 45-55 MPH over southeastern MA, N increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 35-45 MPH elsewhere.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS: This is most likely to occur in southeastern MA where the winds are strongest for the longest period of time, at least in terms of being an official blizzard by definition (3 or more consecutive hours of greatly-reduced visibility caused by sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater), but it’s important to note that gusty winds blowing the falling and already fallen drier/fluffy snow around in areas further to the north and west will create white-out conditions at times, even if the official criteria for a blizzard are not met.
POST-STORM: The sky will clear from west to east as temperatures fall to lows of 8-16 with NW wind diminishing slightly but remaining gusty.

DAYS 2-5 (FEBRUARY 10-13)
A shot of very cold air Friday will be followed by a small low pressure system coming from Canada via the Great Lakes bringing a risk of snow during the morning hours of Saturday. The next system will be on its heels and bring a chance of snow/rain by late Sunday to early Monday. Track of this one will be critical to determining precipitation type. This system may also try to intensify rapidly as it departs but will watch in case it happens sooner.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill often below 10.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Chance of snow late. Lows 10-18. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of snow morning with minor accumulation. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow late. Lows 20-28. Highs 35-42.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy early with chance of snow/mix/rain. Partly sunny later. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Active pattern continues with fair/cold weather February 14, then a storm threat February 15 which may bring snow/mix. A very cold air mass may arrive for the middle and end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
Temperatures recover and moderate with a little more quiet pattern.

3:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
The low level cold air moved back into the immediate suburbs of Boston during the night with any wet areas frozen over. This also extends further north, west, and even southwest of Boston into the early morning hours so watch for icy ground and ice-covered vehicles. Allow extra time. As a cold front moves through the region this morning a band of rain will accompany it, and this rain may still freeze on surfaces that remain cold in areas northwest of Boston. There is a secondary trough behind this front that the cold air sits behind, so initially it will actually warm up after the cold front passes, something that is not all that uncommon here. The cold air will move in starting late today and especially tonight as the next storm system approaches. This system will pass just south of New England Thursday, while intensifying, and bring significant snow to the region. It may start as mix/rain south of Boston and especially toward the South Coast, but cold air will overtake this area too and result in mainly snow, though wetter in consistency than the drier snow that will fall deeper in the colder air to the north and northwest. Behind this a shot of very cold air follows for Friday. A weak low pressure system may bring some snow early Saturday but the majority of the weekend looks precipitation-free, until Sunday night when the next system may arrive with some light rain/mix/snow. The timing and precipitation type are uncertain at this time.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers ending west to east morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 52-60 by midday then turning colder late day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow developing southwest to northeast toward dawn except likely starting as mix/rain south of Boston especially South Coast and may be mixed with rain near the South Coast. Temperatures fall through the 30s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, with the greatest risk for heaviest snow in the region from northeastern CT and northern RI through southeastern and east central MA. Expected snow accumulation 6-12 inches for most areas but may be under 6 inches in portions of southern NH as well as near the South Coast. Blowing and drifting snow especially north and west of Boston. Temperatures fall into the 20s. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts from the I-95 belt westward, NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 8-15. Highs 20-28.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow especially AM. Lows 10-18. Highs 28-35.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain especially late. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Low confidence forecast here. Most likely unsettled with mix/rain February 13, fair/colder February 14, storm threat February 15-16 with snow/mix potential, and possibly very cold by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
Low confidence forecast here as well. Leaning toward dry weather and temperature moderation early to mid period and a storm threat toward the end.