DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

As we wrap up the holiday weekend (or holiday week for some, including me haha) we see warm and still humid weather, though behind a “kind-of” cold front that went through last night we will see a slight reduction in dew points during the course of today and into Monday as a small bubble of high pressure builds in. We can still see a couple isolated pop-up showers and maybe a thunderstorm this afternoon / early evening mainly near and east of I-95 and near and south of I-90, but most areas will remain quiet today. And don’t get used to any slight drying later today and Monday, because we have Florida weather on the way for Tuesday and midweek as tropical air returns, along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms once again. Also, we’ll need to factor in remnant moisture from Beryl, which after its long, historic early-season trek across the tropical Atlantic, southern Caribbean, Yucatan, and western Gulf of Mexico, will come ashore for the final time on the central Texas Coast. A landfall further south (South Texas or Mexico) would have likely buried that moisture and we’d probably have never seen it, but a landfall further north makes the moisture more available to the westerlies that deliver much of our weather, so it now becomes a factor. It’s hard to say how much it will add to our rainfall potential and exactly when that will be, but right now looking at a broad-brush window of time beginning sometime Wednesday and lasting through Thursday for the opportunity, and we can pin down the details as we get closer to that time.

TODAY: Clouds dominate the morning, especially I-95/I-90 east and south. More sun afternoon, but pop-up showers and possibly a thunderstorm later in the day once again favoring areas east and south of I-95/I-90. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point starts out 70-75 but reduces to 65-70. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH, but some more direct light coastal sea breezes may develop midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. A few fog patches form, especially interior lower elevation locations. Lows 63-70, warmest in urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevation locations. Lows 63-70, warmest in urban locations. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, except a little cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

Based on current projections, the shower and thunderstorm chances and humid weather continue through the July 13-14 weekend before some potentially drier air arrives. Temperatures near to above normal. Much to sort out and fine-tune in this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Still expecting a large scale pattern of westerly flow aloft, lower amplitude high pressure off the East Coast, trough position often in Ohio Valley to Great Lakes, may shift back to Upper Midwest at least for a short while. General weather idea here in this pattern is warm but not persistently hot, more humid than not, and a few opportunities for showers / thunderstorms.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

We’re at our most humid in this stretch of mugginess this holiday weekend, and the wettest weather for many areas will take place before noontime today as the remains of a convective complex cross the region from west to east (doing so now as I write). There are still some active thunderstorms in eastern CT up to about the MA border as of 8:45 a.m. while to the north it’s a gradually diminishing area of elevated-base rainfall. This area should continue to diminish gradually as it moves east but also lifts a bit north. Greatest rain coverage will be from eastern CT and northwestern RI through east central MA and south central to southeastern NH mid morning, with areas to the southeast not immune to passing showers / downpours / thunderstorms, but activity should last a shorter time there.

After the mid morning activity, we stay in the soupy warm sector much of today but there is a little less support to trigger numerous showers and storms, so I’m just looking for mostly pop-up isolated activity to be possible. One more line may try to organize later on in the day as a cold front ambles across the region, but this activity probably fades before reaching the coastal plain this evening and we just have a soupy air mass and not much more rain for most areas after what happens this morning. Later tonight, the front will cross and bring a reduction in the humidity which will become more noticeable Sunday. As the front is lazy to move through, some additional high and mid level cloudiness will be generated over the boundary and may limit our sun for a portion of Sunday morning, especially in southeastern areas, before we see more sunshine. It doesn’t look like we pop any showers Sunday, or Monday too as high pressure has a little more influence and there is more sunshine. The next disturbance from the west arrives later Tuesday to early Wednesday when we have another period of time when showers and thunderstorms can occur.

TODAY: Overcast with showers and embedded thunderstorms crossing much of the region mid morning, exiting late morning, then a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower or thunderstorms possible from midday on. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lowers into 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate the morning along with potential lingering showers eastern and/or southern areas. Sun dominates the afternoon. Highs 83-90 except a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

The large scale weather pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast, a low pressure trough Great Lakes and Midwest, which creates a humid southwesterly air flow here, with warm weather and several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Current cautious call on when shower chances are highest: July 11 and 14.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

No big changes here. Still expecting a general westerly flow aloft with flatter high pressure off the East Coast, and a trough in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. General result is a warm pattern but no persistent hot weather. Humidity is often higher and there are a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities which of course cannot be pinpointed many days in advance.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

We move into a little bit of an unsettled stretch now for the balance of the holiday weekend, but when people see “unsettled” and “weekend” in the same phrase, they get nervous. There’s still plenty of nice weather to be had even during this time where clouds will be dominant and shower / t-storm chances are to be monitored. A healthy batch of showers, some heavy, went through MA this morning, moving offshore as we enter mid morning. The remainder of the day will feature a lot of clouds, partial sun, and still the chance of a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm, but the vast majority of the remaining hours will be rain-free in any given location. It will be warm (not hot) and on the humid side. We will get a shot of more oppressive humidity on Saturday before a cold front slides through and knocks it back down somewhat on Sunday. Similar to yesterday’s outlook, we will have to watch for a couple to a few batches of showers and thunderstorms in the region during the span of Saturday’s calendar day, which should then largely move offshore by Sunday, though some may linger early in eastern and southern areas. Clouds may also hang tough for a while Sunday before we finally get into more sunshine as the day passes. Early next week, high pressure brings fair, warm conditions Monday. By Tuesday, high pressure offshore and high pressure in the Midwest puts a trough sandwiched between them, and the southwesterly air flow will transport moisture into our region, increasing the shower and thunderstorm chance once again.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – breaks of sun. Early showers eastern coastal areas exit, then pop-up showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time, but greatest chance early morning and mid afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lowers into 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate the morning along with potential lingering showers eastern and/or southern areas. Sun dominates the afternoon. Highs 83-90 except a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

The large scale weather pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast, a low pressure trough Great Lakes and Midwest, which creates a humid southwesterly air flow here, with warm weather and several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Early call on when shower chances are highest: First half of July 10, much of July 11, and end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

No major changes from the previous outlook. Indications of a generally westerly flow aloft with a mean trough position in the Great Lakes and Midwest and weaker high pressure off the East Coast. This is a typical summertime pattern for here, warm, a hot day or two, on the humid side, a few shower/thunderstorm chances from time to time but fair weather more often than unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy Independence Day! I’ve been eyeing a frontal boundary set to pass through the region today, weakening / washing out as it does so, but it holds just enough impact to produce a few showers this morning, mainly north of I-90, and, with the help of a South Coast sea breeze boundary, potentially initiate a few more this afternoon, mainly south of I-90. A little disturbance coming along tonight can bring a very late evening or overnight shower or thunderstorm to some areas, but that activity will be fairly low coverage. Other than those few showers and maybe a spot storm around today, and some fog patches which may form this evening near the South Coast, I don’t see much in the way of weather-related interruption for daytime 4th of July activities and evening fireworks displays. As always, keep an eye on the sky, and the radar if you can, and stay safe. As we move through the extended holiday weekend, and you can include Monday in this if you are lucky enough to have done so, we’ll see some unsettled weather around for a while Friday and Saturday, and more settled weather Sunday and Monday. The frontal boundary that comes by today, even though it’s not showing much contrast from one side to another, sits around Friday just to the south when a few showers can form over it with the help of an approaching disturbance from the west. As a trough moves into the Great Lakes this weekend, a stronger push of moisture will occur into the Northeast Saturday, upping the potential for a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms at any point during that day. While I wouldn’t cancel plans, keep in mind that this is the day that has the highest chance of outdoor plans being interrupted by weather. The passage of a warm front early in the day will open the door to oppressive humidity, but this should drop off again during Sunday as a cold front settles through. Clouds may hang on for a while on Sunday before sun reappears, and it will be quite warm even behind the front, including Monday, which will feature fair weather.

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy morning with passing showers possible. Partly sunny afternoon with an additional shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly south of I-90. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew point rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower is possible, especially late evening and overnight. Patchy fog South Coast. Lows 63-70, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Showers and thunderstorms possible at any time, but greatest chance early morning and mid afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises to 70+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lowers to lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Clouds dominate the morning, sun dominates the afternoon. Highs 83-90 except a little cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91 except a little cooler in coastal areas. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

The large scale weather pattern features high pressure off the US East Coast, a low pressure trough Great Lakes and Midwest, which creates a humid southwesterly air flow here, with warm weather and several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. It sounds worse than it is, as I don’t expect persistent major heat. There will also be more rain-free time than raining time. Day-to-day details have to be worked out closer to each time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

No major changes from the previous outlook. Indications of a generally westerly flow aloft with a mean trough position in the Great Lakes and Midwest and weaker high pressure off the East Coast. This is a typical summertime pattern for here, warm, a hot day or two, on the humid side, a few shower/thunderstorm chances from time to time but fair weather more often than unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

With Independence Day on a Thursday this year, there isn’t really a clear cut “4th of July Weekend” as we like to call it, but using the day-rounding process, with the holiday just 2 days away from the standard weekend, it’s basically the weekend for all intents and purposes for the next 5 days – this forecast period – if you include today as a “get-away day”. So here we are in a stretch of weather-important days for plans that include travel, pools, beaches, cookouts and other gatherings, and of course many fireworks displays over a stretch of nights. And the weather doesn’t look all that bad for most of the time, to be honest. We have a few showers and thunderstorms to dodge, no doubt, as would often be the case in many 5-day stretches in early summertime, but we’ve certainly had more unfriendly patterns than the one that will be ours for this time period.

Today, high pressure governs with fairly comfortable humidity but a little warmer than yesterday. You’ll also notice some cloud patches fanning across the sky from northwest to southeast as the air warms up aloft too. A “quiet” warm front will slide through during today and this evening, made evident only by the cloud patches but no precipitation, so it’s going to be a really nice day! Weak low pressure will travel north of our region tonight and Thursday, and a weak cold front trailing it will move into the region until it gets to about the South Coast where it essentially becomes indiscernible. Nevertheless, this boundary can help create a few passing showers mainly during the morning hours north of I-90, and along with a sea breeze boundary on Thursday can initiate a few more showers mainly south of I-90 Thursday afternoon, which I do expect to fade away for evening fireworks. While humidity levels will be noticeably up for Independence Day, it won’t be oppressive, and there should be a ventilating breeze if you’re outside, with cooler air to be found at the shoreline compared to inland locations. If there are any issues with fireworks, as previously mentioned, there could be a few fog patches near the South Coast during the evening on Thursday. Hopefully they don’t form extensively enough to hinder fireworks views. Looking beyond the holiday to the rest of the weekend, the pattern is a little more unsettled, but not bad. Friday’s weather will feature more cloudiness especially across southern portions of the region with the hold frontal boundary still hanging around there, but there should be partial sun too – more to the north – and only a limited chance of a passing shower at some point, nothing that I see as causation for cancelling any outdoor plans. With the larger scale pattern starting to feature a trough in the Midwest and Great Lakes, another low pressure area is expected to travel to our north over the weekend, dragging another warm front / cold front combo through our area. The warm front should trigger showers late Friday night into Saturday morning under an abundance of clouds, but we likely break out into some sun on Saturday with a spike of more oppressive humidity, though not especially hot – just quite warm. We’ll have to watch for another shower or thunderstorm sometime later Saturday to the early hours of Sunday, depending on the timing of a trailing cold front. Indications are this point are for limited activity with this front, despite the high humidity, but with these conditions you can’t really rule out at least some scattered downpours at some point, so keep this in mind during that Saturday PM to Sunday AM time period and I’ll fine-tune that part of the forecast asap. Cloudiness may linger around on Sunday even after the front goes by as there is no real strong push of dry Canadian air to be found this time… However I would expect the muggy air of Saturday to be replaced by at least less humid air for Sunday. Again, this will be something to refine in coming updates.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A couple passing showers possible north of I-90 morning. A pop up shower possible south of I-90 afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog South Coast region. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A possible late-day shower in a few locations. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 60+ Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. Showers possible, mainly morning to midday. Chance of a late-day thunderstorm favoring areas to the weest. Highs 80-87. Dew point climbs toward 70. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point falls toward 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: More clouds than sun. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Pattern next week puts high pressure in the Midwest and adjacent Canada, and another high off the Atlantic Coast, with our region in between, where a boundary will reside. This increases the chance for high humidity and episodic showers and thunderstorms. But it’s important to note, this is not likely a “rainy week” but rather a humid, hit and miss shower/storm pattern. Much detail to be worked out.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

Pattern for mid month strongest indications are for westerly air flow aloft, high pressure still off the East Coast but flatter / weaker, and a trough more persistent Midwest / Great Lakes. For our area that’s a warm pattern, not persistently hot though, more often humid than dry, and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities but more fair weather than unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

As expected, dew points fell to the 50s last night as a Canadian airmass moved in behind a disturbance that caused a few showers and storms yesterday. This comfortable air will be with us today into tomorrow, though tomorrow you’ll notice a slight up-tick in the humidity toward day’s end. This takes places as high pressure dominates the weather, moving into the region from the northwest today then sliding southeast offshore Wednesday, another fair weather day. You will notice more high level cloudiness Wednesday as it warms aloft. A weak cold front will move through the region Thursday morning and may be responsible for a few showers in the region (nothing like last year’s July 4th’s period of rain). As the front settles off to the south and a South Coast sea breeze boundary forms, a few more showers can be triggered near the South Coast in the afternoon with higher humidity levels, but the balance of the region should be rain-free for afternoon gatherings and nighttime fireworks displays. Even areas that see pop-up showers should lose them in the evening with the only risk of interruption to fireworks being patchy fog in some South Coast areas. Friday looks a little nicer to me today than it did yesterday with weak high pressure to the north in control. Saturday, a warm front scoots through with some clouds and perhaps a shower, otherwise a return to very warm and humid weather is expected.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A pop up shower possible near the South Coast. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 60+ Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: More clouds than sun. A shower possible, mainly morning to midday. Highs 80-87. Dew point climbs toward 70. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

A cold front slides through early July 7 with maybe a shower or thunderstorm, otherwise lingering clouds but still humid and warm that day to finish the weekend. Pattern into next week features high pressure and fair weather at first but shower / storm chances go up toward midweek between offshore high pressure and a Midwest / Great Lakes trough.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Westerly flow aloft – high pressure off US East Coast, trough Great Lakes and Midwest. Surface front west of region, generally warm, humid pattern here with a few shower / thunderstorm opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

July starts off with a comfortable, slightly cooler than normal day, but it won’t be a “fair” day in its entirety, for we have an upper level low pressure area crossing the region with a cold pool of air aloft. As I write this update at 8:00 a.m. I already see diurnal cloud development outside my window here in Boston’s northwest suburbs. They are rather high-based, but regardless will continue to build with the sun’s help, and we will see isolated to scattered showers and potential thunderstorms by midday which will be around until about sunset before completely dissipating. While many areas will be missed by any rainfall, areas that do see a shower or storm can see briefly heavy rainfall. The later in the day we get (once the sun drops below 45 degrees elevation angle), the opportunity for seeing a rainbow will increase if you are in the right place between the sun and a shower. So rainbow seekers, take note! We clear out tonight as the upper low moves out and a clear sky and fairly light wind will make for a pretty cool early July night. High pressure builds in with great weather Tuesday, light wind, light sea breezes at the coast, mild to warm air after the chilly start, and low humidity. High pressure slips offshore Wednesday, another nice day with manageable humidity, but up a few notches from Tuesday with a southerly air flow developing. A weak cold front will cross the region in the early hours of Thursday with some clouds and no more than a brief light shower, but the balance of the Independence Day holiday will feature a sun/cloud mix, warm air, and moderate humidity as what’s left of the frontal boundary dissipates. If there are any other showers that day it would be a couple that generate along the dissipating boundary and/or a sea breeze boundary near the South Coast. By Friday, a trough moves into the Great Lakes while a fairly flat high pressure ridge sits to our south. We’ll see some episodes of cloudiness that day and perhaps a few showers around, though wet weather looks like the major exception rather than the rule. We will be on the warm side and a bit humid to end the week as well.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms midday on. Highs 73-80. Dew point around 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Ground fog patches forming. Lows 55-62. Dew point under 60. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A pop up shower possible near the South Coast. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day shower possible. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

The extended holiday weekend through July 7 features warm and humid weather with a daily chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but mostly rain-free weather. High pressure brings fair weather early to middle portions of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

West to northwest flow at upper levels. A few disturbances pass by with shower / t-storm chances, but otherwise mostly dry weather, with some variation in temperature, averaging near to a little above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

We finish June today with another “unsettled” day, but not a washed-out one. The overnight showers exit southeastern areas early to mid morning and we get through several rain-free hours while we wait for re-ignition of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front today. This looks like it will take place in northern and western portions of the WHW area early to mid afternoon then progress east southeastward as a broken to solid line of showers and thunderstorms. While coverage looks high percentage, duration does not. When it visits any particular spot, we’re looking at a 30 to 90 minute duration of rain, and shorter duration of heaviest rain, but enough that some brief flooding can occur in areas prone to it. Storms do have the potential to produce some damaging wind gusts and small hail as well. Rotation risk is low but non-zero, and we’d have to watch for a cell that was separated from the line – maybe an isolated cell ahead of it or just to the south of it – for that to be most likely to occur. If one of those cells were to get going, they would also be capable of producing larger hail. After the initial line starts to head out later this afternoon, a follow-up broken line should impact areas mostly from I-90 southward early this evening. Then it’s onto the dry-out tonight with a more comfortable air mass replacing the muggy one we have in place today. The outlook heading into and to the Independence Day holiday is pretty much unchanged. Monday’s a comfortable day with low humidity, but upper level low pressure will trigger diurnal cloud development and perhaps a few pop-up showers. Tuesday and Wednesday look stellar with lots of sun, manageable humidity, and a warming trend as high pressure moves in, then shifts off to the east. The holiday looks ok to me! There will be a weak frontal boundary heading through – current timing looks like morning hours – when we have to watch for a couple passing showers, and the balance of the day looks dry and warm with moderate humidity. Fine-tuning to come on that, of course.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Showers exit the South Coast region by mid morning. Showers and thunderstorms visit many areas this afternoon from west northwest to east southeast, and one additional shower or storm possible mainly I-90 southward this evening. Any storms can be strong to locally severe, but most locations will see a lesser version. Highs 79-86, coolest South Coast. Dew point 70+, but starts to lower from northwest to southeast late day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW late-day and evening from northwest to southeast.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. DP near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A possible morning shower. Highs 81-88. DP near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-8)

The extended holiday weekend through July 7 features more humidity and a few shower and thunderstorm chances with a trough of low pressure moving through the region. Fair weather follows to end this period. Temperatures generally around seasonable levels.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

West to northwest flow at upper levels. A few disturbances pass by with shower / t-storm chances, but otherwise mostly dry weather, with some variation in temperature, averaging near to a little above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

The weather will be unsettled for this final weekend of June, but not a weekend “lost to the weather”. While clouds will be dominant, the rainfall that occurs will be limited to a fraction of the time in any given location. Today, a warm front approaches and we’ll spend most of the day under a vast canopy of clouds ahead of it, while most of the warm front generated rainfall will take places on the western and northern outskirts of the WHW forecast area, with just a little light rain getting into central to northeastern MA and southern NH at times and maybe a few stray sprinkles of rain working their way a little further southeast as far as the I-95 belt mainly north of I-90. It is this evening when a more formidable band of showers will push further east and south, mainly late this evening and overnight, while a few embedded heavier showers and possible thunderstorms accompany it. This will mark the arrival of higher dew point air which will then be with us for much of Sunday, until a cold front passes through from northwest to southeast. This front can have a few isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead of it, but seems to want to save most of its action for producing a narrow band of showers and thunderstorms to move through the region from northwest to southeast from mid afternoon to early evening. I believe this band may run a little ahead of the timing of most short range guidance, if you are looking at that, but I’ll monitor trends there. It’s possible that those storms can produce some hail and wind damage, but I don’t think this will be a widespread severe weather outbreak. The greatest chance for this appears to be from I-95 to southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT late afternoon to early evening Sunday. Regardless of convective activity, the front coming through will break the humidity again Sunday night as we say goodbye to June. Monday’s’ weather will feature lower humidity, but with upper level low pressure crossing the region we will see diurnal cloud development and the potential for showers to pop up along with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. High pressure builds in with great summer weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of light rain central MA to southwestern NH, with a few sprinkles of very light rain as far east as I-95. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 70 much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW late-day and evening from northwest to southeast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. DP near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

A weak frontal boundary may pass by with a shower early on July 4, otherwise fair weather, warm air, and moderate humidity expected. A weak trough of low pressure brings a better chance of showers and thunderstorms at times for the balance of the holiday weekend period and start of the following week, but rain-free much of time. More details to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

West to northwest flow at upper levels. A few disturbances pass by with shower / t-storm chances, but otherwise mostly dry and seasonable weather is expected.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

An area of high pressure will provide beautiful weather today – plenty of sun, a pleasant northwesterly breeze, mild air, and low humidity. Our weekend doesn’t not hold this kind of pleasantry for us, but also will not be lost to the weather. Saturday’s daytime hours will feature dry weather with more cloudiness and an increase in humidity as a warm front approaches and the wind turns more southerly, and it is only late in the day when some shower and possible thunderstorm activity will wander into central MA and southern NH, finally progressing east as the night goes on. The low parenting the warm front will move to our north and its trailing cold front still has to come through the region Sunday midday or afternoon. So the period from later Saturday night through at least part of Sunday afternoon will be vulnerable to a couple or a few bands of showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy downpours. Expect a drying trend from northwest to southeast heading into later Sunday as the front pulls through. High humidity will be with us while we’re in the “warm sector”, feeling quite tropical for a while on Sunday before the drier air arrives later on. July opens with a cooler, drier Monday, but an upper level low crossing the region will allow the sun to fire up diurnal clouds, some of which can grown enough to release a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. This exits and high pressure builds in with fair, seasonable weather for Tuesday after a cool start to the day.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point under 50. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point under 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Late-day showers possible mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 70 much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

High pressure shifts offshore with fair and warmer weather on July 3. Watch for a weak frontal boundary to be around on July 4 with no more than a quick shower or t-storm otherwise mainly dry and warm weather. July 5-7 look a little more unsettled with a trough in the region, high pressure offshore, and higher humidity with greater shower / t-storm opportunities.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Typical July pattern, seasonable warmth on average, a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, and rain-free most of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

After an active night for a good portion of the region with showers and thunderstorms, including a complex of storms that caused a swath of wind damage in CT, RI, and southern MA, we are going to get a break today. The last of the showers exit the eastern shores first thing this morning, then it’s a clearing trend that follows as drier air moves in. But one more trough has to move through the region from northwest to southeast during the last few hours of daylight, and that will likely trigger at least a broken to solid but narrow band of clouds with vertical development, which can be tall enough in spots to release one more shower (very low risk of thunderstorm). These should be the exception, not the rule, and if you do get one it will be short-duration, most likely under 30 minutes. Most likely time for this is 4PM to 8PM from northwest to southeast across the WHW forecast area, with the greatest chance in the northern and western portions of the region. Shower or not, dry air overtakes the area tonight and is with us through Friday – a sparkling early summer day with mild air and low humidity, along with a nice breeze. As previously mentioned, we are in a progressive weather pattern, and the next trough and frontal system will be moving through our region over the weekend, but that doesn’t mean we’re losing both days to overcast, rainy weather. Saturday will be a rain-free daytime with just some clouds moving in at times ahead of an approaching warm front. It’s Saturday night when a round of showers and possible thunderstorms move in, but first to the west and north, eventually working through more of the region. But the bulk of this may occur during the overnight hours. Sunday will be the more unsettled day with a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms in a very humid air mass, until a cold front finally passes by. It may take much of the day for that front to get all the way across the region, and we can fine-tune those details as we get closer to and into the weekend with upcoming updates. As we welcome July on Monday, it looks like we’ll have a cooler / drier air mass in place, but with a chilly pool of air crossing our region aloft, that can be a trigger for at least the development of clouds and possible some diurnally-driven instability showers – another aspect of the forecast to be detailed as we get closer to it.

TODAY: Early showers eastern coastal areas, otherwise clouds give way to sun west to east, then additional clouds with a slight chance of a passing brief shower late-day from northwest to southeast. Highs 80-87. DP starts in 60s, ends in 50s. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late-day.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP falls to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. DP lower 50s. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Late-day showers possible mainly well west and north of Boston. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. DP rises back over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. DP 60+ much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. DP 55 or lower. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 76-83. DP sub-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

Independence Day falls right in the middle of this forecast period which will be important for many travel / vacation / outdoor plans. The weather pattern features a west to northwest flow, starting out dry with low humidity, eventually with a warming trend and increasing humidity, but it looks like a mainly dry pattern, in terms of rain-chances, with shower and thunderstorm opportunities finally increasing toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

Typical July pattern, seasonable warmth on average, a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities, and rain-free most of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

A “quiet” warm front went by overnight. The only evidence you had of it here is the variety of high and mid level clouds that appeared late yesterday and last night, and if watching radar you saw some light showers cross northern New England. This has opened the door for a one-day shot of heat and humidity, though it won’t be nearly as hot as our hot spell of last week, with most areas topping out in the upper 80s to around 90. The exception of course will be the South Coast which will feel a cooling effect from a southwesterly wind coming off the ocean water, which while it has warmed up significantly since spring, is still a couple months from reaching its summer peak. There will be a South Coast sea breeze boundary which can help trigger a few showers and even a thunderstorm this afternoon in an east-west orientation – best guess in the vicinity of I-90 but may be a bit south or even a bit north of there, so watch for developing clouds and you can get a visual clue as to what’s happening before anything forms. Much of the rest of the region will remain rain-free through the daylight hours. It’s later this evening and overnight when a more widespread batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move through the region as the cold front moves into and passes through the region. While these showers can linger over eastern areas into early Thursday morning, the bulk of Thursday is going to feature a return to sun, with passing clouds, and lowering humidity, cooler compared to today but still pleasantly warm in the afternoon without the higher dew point air. There is one more trough that has to swing through the region late in the day that can trigger a couple showers and a thunderstorm, but these should be generally isolated to widely scattered and quick-passing if/where they do occur. A fresh Canadian air mass settles in for Thursday night and Friday with low dew points, a cool nighttime and a pleasant daytime. A northwesterly air flow should keep up well into Friday which should prevent sea breezes, but the air will be refreshing anyway, along with plenty of sun to be enjoyed. The weekend will feature some weather changes. High pressure will slide offshore Saturday and a warm front will approach, bringing an increase in clouds. This front may bring some shower activity but right now I feel the bulk of that will occur west and north of Boston later in the day. It’s then overnight and Sunday morning that a cold front will approach and move through with the most widespread shower and potential thunderstorm activity, with a follow-up trough maybe popping a shower or storm in some areas Sunday afternoon before we clear out again. Humidity levels will come up again Saturday into Sunday, but without high heat, and the humidity will then break again later Sunday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A few showers and possible thunderstorms favoring the I-90 belt mid to late afternoon. Highs 77-84 South Coast region, coolest immediate shoreline, 85-92 elsewhere. DP rises to middle 60s to around 70, highest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible early, then more widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms late evening and overnight. Patchy fog forms. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the early morning. Partly sunny mid morning on. One more possible shower or thunderstorm mid afternoon to early evening northwest to southeast. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 by late-day. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW late.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP falls to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. DP lower 50s. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. Mid afternoon to evening rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. DP rises back over 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms become more likely from west to east late evening and overnight. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 63-70. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the early to mid morning. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. DP 60+ much of day, lowering late. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW late.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

During this holiday period we’ll see a west to northwest air flow and progressive pattern. A couple disturbances / fronts bring passing shower and t-storm chances, but it’s hard to time these this far in advance. The bulk of the period sees rain-free weather. Temperatures start out coolest, then warm to a little above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

A similar pattern to the previous period. More detail to come…

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

High pressure brings great weather today – warm but with low humidity. The high slides offshore tonight and a southwesterly air flow returns humidity to the region Wednesday along with continued very warm weather, but a cold front will be moving in our direction and likely brings a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms from later Wednesday through early Thursday. This will lead a Canadian airmass into the region with pleasant, drier weather returning during Thursday. High pressure builds in continuing really nice weather through Friday and into the weekend as well, but Saturday may see a few more clouds in advance of the next trough / frontal system to our west as we remain in a progressive weather pattern.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. DP under 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP upper 50s-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Late day showers / thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers / thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the early morning. Partly sunny mid morning on. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. DP lower 50s. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH early, becoming variable under 10 MPH with afternoon sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. DP lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. DP rises to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

A frontal boundary moving through brings a shower / thunderstorm chance the last day of June – timing TBD. High pressure brings fair weather the first several days of July leading up to the holiday. Starts out low humidity and pleasantly cool then a warming trend with increasing humidity later on.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

Watch for frontal boundaries early and again late period with shower and thunderstorm chances but otherwise mostly fair weather will be the rule with temperatures running near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

A quick blog update today. A cold front has passed, but we still have an upper low swinging through and some instability which will at least pop clouds and maybe a few showers (extremely low chance of a t-storm), favoring eastern areas midday to evening, otherwise it’s a mainly fair, drier and more comfortable day as the humidity drops, along with a busy breeze. High pressure builds in tonight and Tuesday with spectacular early summer weather, then offshore Wednesday when some heat and humidity return, but a cold front will be moving our way and will bring a shower and thunderstorm chance later Wednesday to early Thursday – timing of front will determine coverage and strength of showers and storms – stay tuned. Improving weather Thursday through Friday with a nice Canadian air mass.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. DP falls through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog in low elevations evening, dissipating overnight. Lows 56-63. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP upper to middle 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP under 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Late day showers / thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms late evening / overnight. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

High pressure dominates the region during much of this time period, with a frontal boundary to cross somewhere mid period (estimating early July 30) when a shower / thunderstorm threat will be present. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

Independence Day forecast period including the “Fourth of July Weekend” looks decent with a west to northwest flow and only 1 or 2 brief potential interruptions from passing disturbances / frontal boundaries in an otherwise mainly dry and seasonably warm pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

Much has been said about the severe weather threat for today, but it’s important to stress this, so it’s understood. The greatest threat for severe weather (i.e., thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes) exists in the northwestern portion of the WHW forecast area – southwestern NH and north central MA, as the eastern extension of the higher threat area which extends further into NH, VT, and much of western MA, as well as adjacent eastern NY. Timing and atmospheric conditions are less favorable for severe storms further east and south, but that’s not to say a few areas cannot see strong to even severe storms. The chance is just less likely in the bulk of the WHW forecast area. Now, let’s rewind several hours to now, and go forward. As I write this discussion at about 8:00 a.m. Sunday morning, a downpour is occurring outside my window here in Woburn MA, one among a cluster of them, a few containing thunder, and follow-ups to some overnight activity too. These are associated with the frontal boundary that came through on Friday as a back door cold front, and is now returning as a warm front. Where it’s not raining at any given moment, it’s overcast and there may be fog, due to the saturated air in place. So our day starts out quite dank, but as the front pushes through, the shower threat drops off for several hours, and we break the clouds and start to add more sun to the mix, making the temperature go up as the humidity remains high. So we’ll be in for a summery feeling day, and some of this will aid in the development of thunderstorms later. Starting about mid afternoon, we’ll have to watch for isolated storms reaching central MA and southwestern NH. It is from this point through early evening that the greatest chance of severe storms exists. Further east, there can be isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms, but as previously mentioned, the severe weather threat is less. We’ll have to watch to see if any more organized clusters or small lines of storms can form, because these can create their own momentum in the form of cyclic regeneration with the help of outflow boundaries. However, these would have less rotation potential and greater straight-line wind potential. Again, these still favor areas west of I-95 and later in the day into the evening, but as we get into the evening, at least weakened forms of these can make it further east. This takes places as a trough of low pressure, in this case a pre-frontal trough (trough of low pressure ahead of a cold front) makes its approach. This feature will pass by tonight, and until it does so, we can still see some scattered to isolated showers and storms, even after the severe weather threat has diminished. Monday, the cold front will sweep through the region, and it’ll be a little colder aloft with a trough up there swinging through. While there will be less moisture to work with, there can still be and probably will be some showers and storms firing up. While I’m not looking for too much in the way of severe weather, an isolated storm or two can be capable of hail and a damaging wind gust Monday afternoon to early evening. Finally, it all departs Monday night and this leads us to a great early summer day on Tuesday as high pressure builds in with warm, dry conditions. High pressure then slips offshore and Wednesday is a very warm day with some increase in humidity. A progressive pattern brings the next frontal boundary across the region sometime Wednesday night or Thursday, based on current timing, but this system looks like it will only bring a short-lived shower and thunderstorm chance, leaning toward late Wednesday night / early Thursday right now…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and scattered showers / thunderstorms with briefly heavy rain until late morning, then breaking clouds and partial sun by midday into afternoon, with isolated showers / thunderstorms possible by mid afternoon, favoring areas west of the I-95 belt, and late-day stronger storms possible favoring north central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew point rises to around 70. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH until late morning, shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts midday on. Damaging wind gusts can occur near any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, with the potential for a few strong to severe storms favoring areas west of I-95 and especially west of I-495 and north of I-90. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms possible but diminishing overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and diminishing, but wind can be briefly strong and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly late morning on. Highs 75-82. DP starts in 60s but a slow downward trend. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially around any storms where wind can be more variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible. Patchy ground fog in low elevations evening, dissipating overnight. Lows 56-63. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP upper to middle 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP under 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms late evening / overnight. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms int he morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

High pressure dominates the region during much of this time period, with a frontal boundary to cross somewhere mid period (estimating early July 30) when a shower / thunderstorm threat will be present. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Independence Day forecast period including the “Fourth of July Weekend” looks decent with a west to northwest flow and only 1 or 2 brief potential interruptions from passing disturbances / frontal boundaries in an otherwise mainly dry and seasonably warm pattern. More details to come…