10:27AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 11-15)

As expected, the “outer bands”, really lobes of tropical moisture leftover from a weakening low which was once called Tropical Storm Fay, delivered a few episodes of showers and scattered downpours during Friday night. Generally under 1/2 inch of rain fell in most locations, with isolated heavier. Thankfully, no instances of damaging wind transpired, so “Fay” was pretty much the non-event it was expected to be here across the WHW forecast area. But we are not completely free of its influence yet, as it is in the process of merging with low pressure coming out of the Great Lakes, and a fresh southerly wind is blowing across the region this morning. The last of the showers exited via north central MA and southwestern NH early this morning, and other than a remote risk of an isolated brief passing shower in the moist air mass, it’s just going to be a breezy, muggy day with a sun & cloud mix. Later in the day you may notice a deck of higher clouds moving in from the west, which will be blow-off from showers and storms that form well to the west during the afternoon along a trough that trails from the newly-merged lows as they move away into eastern Canada. However, these storms will weaken and fade to just a few lingering showers as they cross the region tonight, so there will be no significant impact from them. Sunday, a westerly air flow behind this trough will knock the dew point down several notches, and while it’s still technically going to be a humid day, you will notice it being less humid than today. I’m leaving a remote risk of a pop up shower or thunderstorm in the forecast, but I really doubt much of anything will take place with Sunday just being a nice summer day. However, Monday is when things get interesting again around here. Don’t mistake that as a call for severe weather in any form of outbreak, but the atmosphere is going to support some shower and thunderstorm activity, so there may be quite a bit of activity to track as a couple of low pressure troughs move through the region. Behind this comes a push of drier air for Tuesday and Wednesday, but these will have their own weather associated with them, Tuesday being the risk of a pop up shower with some lingering cold air aloft, and Wednesday being the advance of some cloudiness ahead of a warm front.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated brief shower possible. Humid. Highs 80-85 South Coast, 85-90 elsewhere. Wind S 10-20 mph, higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a passing shower late evening. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mid afternoon to early evening. Slightly less humid. Highs 82-87 South Coast, 87-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts at times.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Slightly less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm mainly eastern areas during the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak to moderate westerly flow aloft and weak weather systems at the surface. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

C-19 Chat Post – July 11 2020

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 10-14)

Tropical Storm Fay formed just off the East Coast of the US yesterday and will make a rapid run up the coast, center making landfall over the northern Mid Atlantic tonight then racing northward up the Hudson Valley region early Saturday morning. This is going to be a very quick “event” for us here in the form of a gusty breeze, a couple waves of showers / downpours and potential thunder (which carry a slight potential of a few damaging wind gusts), and tropical humidity, and then it’s gone, just like that, leaving us with a sun/cloud mix Saturday but still quite humid. Also a lingering trough behind Fay may help ignite some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Saturday, but right now the greatest chance for this to happen is just west of the WHW forecast area, some making their way in weakening or scattered form into the region during the evening or night. Humidity comes down a notch Sunday but another weak trough swinging through may still help fire off a shower or thunderstorm in a few places during the afternoon / early evening so can’t forecast totally dry. If there is one “significant” change to this outlook it is that a slightly stronger disturbance seems slated to want to make a passing visit on Monday, and that will again increase the risk of showers and thunderstorms before drier air finally arrives for Tuesday.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers and possible thunderstorms any time this afternoon, but greatest risk mid to late afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Very humid. Lows 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. Slightly less humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Slightly less humid. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Moderately humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak to moderate westerly air flow much of the time. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

C-19 Chat Post – July 10 2020

7:49AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 9-13)

Today we find ourselves deeper in the feel of the summer season we’re in – a little more heat than yesterday (though not excessively hot), and humidity on the high side. We don’t have a trough to kick off a batch of storms similar to what happened yesterday to the north – although those storms did not really make it down into Massachusetts from VT & NH as there was more stable air in place there. Today, we may see isolated pop-up air mass showers and thunderstorms, simply due to daytime heating, so be aware of that possibility. Any of these will fade as the sun sets, and tonight will be simply warm and muggy – a classic summer night. Next we turn our attention to a system that has been talked about as the bringing of a Saturday wash-out, or even by some, a weekend wash-out. You may have been lead to believe this by a verbatim interpretation of computer model forecasts, especially the currently very poorly-performing ECMWF model. Once again, this is where using the science of meteorology comes into play. This system, whether the NHC classifies it as something or not, will indeed be coming northward up the East Coast, but it’s going to be a relatively small low pressure area and take an “inside runner” track, over the Delmarva region and probably up through the Hudson Valley Friday night and early Saturday. And while that does mean we can get some heavy tropical rainfall, it’s likely come in the form of 2 or 3 lobes of showers and thunderstorms, moving rapidly south to north across the region, during the window of late Friday afternoon to very early Saturday morning. Once that low is beyond our latitude, we’ll be left in a south to southwesterly air flow of very humid air for Saturday, which for the most part is likely to be rain-free, as is Sunday. We’ll have to watch, however, for the development of afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms especially near a weak lingering trough line behind the low Saturday as it drifts to the east, and another trough approaching from the west again by later on Sunday. While we remain in a warm and somewhat humid air mass for Monday, there will be less of a risk of any showers/storms forming due to more stable air which will have arrived at that time.

TODAY: Areas of fog & low clouds into mid morning, otherwise partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, but a few higher gusts possible near any storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly mid to late afternoon, favoring areas south of I-90. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 67-74. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible. Humid. Highs 84-91. Wind S-SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

Limited risk for any shower / thunderstorms in weak southwesterly to westerly flow overall. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

A slightly stronger west to northwest flow aloft means a warm pattern with limited shower / storm chances but probably no extreme heat either.

C-19 Chat Post – July 9 2020

7:51AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 8-12)

Warm front passes this morning with no more than isolated quick tropical showers. Clouds may break for sun at times after that but not expecting completely clearing today. A weak disturbance approaching from the northwest will be enough to kick off showers and thunderstorms it interacts with daytime heating and humidity, and these will take place mostly from during the second half of this afternoon into very early evening, and will be most potent as they move into and across southern NH and the northern portions of Worcester, Middlesex, and Essex Counties in Massachusetts. South of there, the air will be more stable, and the timing too late, so any advance of showers and storms into areas there and southward will be thwarted and they should fall apart rather quickly in most if not all cases. Where they do occur, briefly strong storms are possible with downpours, lightning, and even some small hail possible. A quiet but muggy night tonight, and the heat is up a notch along with humidity continuing Thursday, but there will be less of a kicker for storms so only isolated air mass storms are possible mainly over central MA and southern NH. Humidity continues again into Friday and may go up even further, while it will not be nearly as warm as Thursday. This will be due to a more south to southeasterly air flow ahead of approaching low pressure that had its origins in the Gulf of Mexico. This low will move up and across the region Friday night and Saturday morning with a slug of appreciable rain likely. Its steady movement should allow us to salvage a good part of Saturday without widespread rainfall, but we will run the risk of additional showers and thunderstorms popping in daytime heating and with a lingering trough behind the departing low. Sunday will be a touch less humid but still somewhat humid, and we will still have the risk of a few pop up showers and storms, though much more of the region will be rain-free on Sunday as a lingering trough will be nearby but a shadow of its former self by then.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers early to mid morning, favoring RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH. Scattered showers and thunderstorms arriving late afternoon to early evening southern NH and north central to northeastern MA with a few strong storms possible. Humid. Highs 80-87, cooler some South Coast areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring central MA to southwestern and south central NH. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a shower. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with showers likely early morning. Partly sunny remainder of day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH early, becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of thunderstorms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Weak high pressure brings drier and seasonably warm weather July 13-14. Disturbance from the northwest brings clouds and a shower/thunderstorm risk during the July 15-16 period with drier weather following. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

Ridge position well to the west, northwesterly air flow aloft, limited shower/thunderstorm risks, but when they occur they can be potent. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 8 2020

7:48AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 7-11)

The only adjustment to today’s forecast from yesterday’s is to slow timing of larger scale features and synoptic systems a little bit, but the overall picture remains the same: warm front passage tonight / early Wednesday, trough hanging around the area Wednesday and Thursday, all mechanisms that can help kick off some shower and thunderstorm activity, though it will be rain-free far more of the time than it is raining in any given location. Tropical moisture from the south still looks as if it will make it up this far and give us a better chance of widespread rainfall Friday night into Saturday. How quickly it exits on Saturday is a question at this time, but even a quicker exit would still leave the atmosphere ripe for additional shower/thunderstorm development during the day.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm overnight. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 81-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

Lingering tropical moisture brings a risk of showers/thunderstorms July 12. Drier weather July 13-14. Disturbance from the northwest may bring some unsettled weather for the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Ridge position well to the west, northwesterly air flow aloft, limited shower/thunderstorm risks, but when they occur they can be potent. Temperatures near to above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 7 2020

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 6-10)

About 90% of the area starts the day under a blanket of stratus clouds today as our cooler air deliver behind the front was of the marine variety once again, due to orientation of high pressure to the north behind last night’s passing cold front and thunderstorms. But this area of clouds will erode away today as dry air works in, and most places will eventually see sunshine. But more changes are coming, and clouds move back in for Tuesday ahead of a warm front. This front may trigger a shower or thunderstorm for parts of the region Tuesday night, and it will lead a new batch of summertime humidity into the region for Wednesday through Friday. A couple disturbances in the region may trigger afternoon showers and thunderstorms in some locations both Wednesday and Thursday. The question mark for Friday is whether or not we get enhanced moisture from the northeastward / northward movement of a tropical disturbance currently in the Gulf of Mexico, so we will watch that during the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then decreasing clouds and increasing sun. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 57-64. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm mainly mid to late afternoon. Highs 75-82. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Lows 62-69. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 85-92. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

The July 11-12 weekend forecast hinges at least partially on what happens with the tropical moisture to the south, so for now just leaving it at a risk of showers and thunderstorms and will work on the details during the week. Somewhat drier air should follow this without any major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Still eyeing a shift to a little more zonal flow, warmer, and limited shower/storm risks.

C-19 Chat Post – July 6 2020

8:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

While the clouds cleared out better than I expected yesterday, the marine layer held strong, and that has lead to a cloudier morning than I expected today. Also, the lead trough in a 1-2-punch from the northwest carries quite a bit of cloudiness above the stratus we have over much of the region now, so this will keep us on the cloudier side at least into if not through mid morning until enough of the mid level cloudiness goes by to allow the sun to work on the stratus layer below. Also, the expected early morning showers near the NH Seacoast are right in that region as of the writing of this update (8AM), and a few may clip far northeastern MA as well before exiting to sea. Eventually, we get into sunshine and it warms up rather quickly, but there will be a boundary setting up as we try to set up a land breeze against what still wants to be an onshore flow. This boundary is going to be our first potential trigger point for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. This may take place anywhere along the boundary, but probably only a couple or a few cells, so we’ll have to visually watch the clouds and of course the radar and now-cast the event if and when it unfolds a bit later. The second kicker is a short wave / cold front coming down from northern New England later in the day and this evening. Still favoring southern, especially southeastern NH, and eastern, especially northeastern MA for the greatest storm potential. These storms may appear in cluster form and have the potential for wind damage, both straight line and (lower risk of) tornadic. Wind damage should be isolated, but could be significant where it occurs. And of course hail and frequent lightning may accompany any storms today. Things settle down later tonight and then a little push of high pressure from eastern Canada comes for Monday, a day of northerly to easterly wind but with dry weather. Then as the high slips off to the southeast, the wind will turn more southeasterly on Tuesday, which may feature more cloudiness as a warm front approaches. A shower may occur near this boundary but activity should be fairly limited on Tuesday as the boundary lifts very slowly through the region. This will set up a more humid and warmer day Wednesday, with a warm front passing and a cold front approaching – a set-up for possible thunderstorms. This boundary will weaken but may still be in the area Thursday for continued humid weather and an additional risk of a shower or storm in some locations.

TODAY: Cloudy into or through mid morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern MA mid to late afternoon, and potential thunderstorms in southeastern NH and northeastern MA by early evening. Humid. Highs 80-87, but cooler along some coastal areas. Wind variable under 10 MPH this morning, E 5-15 MPH immediate coast and SW 5-15 MPH elsewhere midday on, but variable and gusty winds, potentially strong, are possible near and in any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with possible showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH, gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind N to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Slight risk of a shower. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 82-89, cooler some South Coast locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

A piece of upper level high pressure will decrease the shower and thunderstorm risk but briefly spike the heat in the region on July 10, potentially the hottest day of the summer so far. Watching the potential for some increased moisture in the region during the July 11-12 weekend translating to less heat, but higher humidity and a great shower/t-storm risk. Drier air follows for July 13-14 based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

The ridge center re-forms well to the west, leaving this area in a northwesterly air flow, which features a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms from passing disturbance, and temperatures generally near to slightly above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – July 5 2020

8:43AM

COMMENTARY

We may be in the midst of events we did not picture just one year ago on the country’s birthday, but it is the country’s birthday, and this should be not only a time to reflect where we have been and where we are going, hopefully learning from the mistakes made along the way, but also a time to celebrate the nation, because even if there are questions about decisions and methods of handling things, disagreements on what is what, there is one thing that remains. We are all one country under one flag. Whether you are native to this land, or descendant of the many who have travelled to it, you are part of this one, and should be regarded as such. I am hopeful that we can heal the wounds and fix the errors going forward. But we need everybody to find a little bit of that hope. Send that message to your family and your friends. Ask them to do the same. We’ve had enough bad spreading among us. Now it’s time to spread some good. Happy Independence Day one and all! Happy Birthday United States of America!

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

The WHW forecast area remains entrenched in the marine layer this Saturday morning, but we will see an erosion of that layer take place gradually today and tonight, and more completely during Sunday, which in itself may be a very interesting weather day. But first, a rather calm day today, just lots of clouds, which do erode especially away from the coast. How quickly this occurs will determine how much sun arrives and for how long. So today’s full temperature range on the forecast takes into account that uncertainty. I’m not advocating the use of personal fireworks in areas where they are illegal, but if you happen to be “viewing” them somewhere this evening, the weather will cooperate. Onto Sunday: An interesting set-up for thunderstorms, not a widespread outbreak, but warmer and more humid air at the surface, cooler aloft and a fairly vigorous disturbance coming down from the northwest. We will see a risk of thunderstorms, favoring southern NH and eastern MA, during the afternoon and evening. Some of these may be strong to locally severe, so we need to eye it closely. Additional kickers for activity may include a sea breeze boundary, and any outflow boundaries leftover by possible activity occurring offshore in the pre-dawn hours as well as any early showers and storms that may pop up. I’m making a minor change to the forecast going into early next week. Behind Sunday’s disturbance, and I should have known, comes a little push of high pressure from eastern Canada, which means Monday will be a day of northerly to easterly wind but with dry weather. Then as the high slips off to the southeast, the wind will turn more southeasterly on Tuesday, which may feature more cloudiness as a warm front approaches. This will set up a more humid and warmer day Wednesday, with a warm front passing and a cold front approaching – a set-up for possible thunderstorms.

TODAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy start. Clouds break for sun, especially away from the coast, during the day. Highs 68-75 within about 10 miles of the coast, 75-82 further inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Brief shower possible near NH Seacoast overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S overnight.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Humid. Highs 80-87. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with possible showers and thunderstorms, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH, gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80m, coolest coast. Wind N to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 81-88, cooler some South Coast locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

A piece of the upper level ridge from the West may move into the East will increase the risk of a few hotter days during this period, and we’ll have to watch for a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as well.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

The ridge center re-forms well to the west, leaving this area in a northwesterly air flow, which features a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms from passing disturbance, and temperatures generally near to slightly above normal.