8:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
I’ll keep this discussion brief as it’s a busy day for many and you don’t need a book to read here. No big changes anyway. Here comes an arctic front later today, snow showers/squalls possible but not everybody will see them. What everybody will see (or more appropriately, feel) is the arctic air that prompts the nickname “Cold Turkey” for Thanksgiving 2018, which will be the coldest in recent time, perhaps the coldest daytime since records have been kept. There will be wind along with the cold between high pressure approaching from the west and the low that gave rain and snow to the region yesterday, now a major storm in the Canadian Maritimes. For Black Friday shoppers, expect cold, but less wind as high pressure settles overhead. This high will then move off to the east allowing low pressure to approach the region Saturday, but wet weather is likely to hold off until Saturday night, and yes it will be in the form of rain as we’ll have warmed considerably. Sunday, we end up in between that system and another one approaching from the southwest, so it may be a damp day but may not be doing much, if anything, from the sky. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Snow showers/squalls possible north and west of Boston by late afternoon. Highs 34-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated to scattered snow showers/squalls evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times especially morning.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Diminishing NW wind.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain at night. Temperatures rise to the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
A low pressure area will move into the region as mild air remains in place bringing rain to the region November 26. A drying, colder trend with a few rain to snow showers possible November 27-28. High pressure brings mainly dry weather to end the month of November.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)
The weather pattern will feature a split flow (2 jet streams, polar and subtropical). The northern (polar) jet stream will become dominant regarding out weather bringing shots of cold air and a few minor episodes of precipitation while the southern (subtropical) jet stream tries to send a larger system at us around mid period, however much of this may end up passing to the south as the streams to not phase. Temperatures near to below normal.

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
The second of 2 low pressure waves will pass by today, strengthening as it does so. This one’s precipitation is a little heavier, and the air is a little colder, with a rain/snow line northwest of Boston that will eventually start to head toward the southeast. There is no change in the overall idea on snowfall amounts, with the most appreciable snowfall occurring in the hills of north central MA across interior southern NH. Drier air works in tonight behind the departing system. A strong arctic cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and reach the area in the evening, and while the daytime will be tolerable though chilly and breezy, a shot of unseasonably cold air will be arriving in the evening, just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday, which will be one of the coldest we’ve seen, along with some wind. A few snow showers or snow squalls are possible as this air mass arrives Wednesday evening, but the holiday itself will be dry and bright despite the chilling cold. High pressure will move right overhead Friday which will be a cold/dry day. As high pressure slides offshore Saturday, temperatures will moderate, but clouds will arrive as well as a low pressure area approaches from the west. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Snow north and west, rain south and east changing to mix/snow. Precipitation ending west to east during the afternoon. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches higher elevations north central MA and interior southern NH, coating to 2 inches elsewhere except little or nothing southeastern MA and RI. Highs 36-43 morning-midday, falling slightly thereafter. Wind light N to NW.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of passing snow showers/squalls evening. Highs 33-39. Rapid temperature drop at night. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NNW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NNW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero at times.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Highs 18-25, coldest in higher elevations. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Less wind. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
2 waves of low pressure will bring wet weather in the form of rain to the region November 25-26 before a trend to drier and colder with a few rain to snow showers November 27-28. Dry weather expected under the influence of high pressure November 29.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
Overall pattern looks polar jet stream dominated while moisture from the southern jet stream is kept at bay to the south, leaving this area cold and mainly dry with a couple minor precipitation episodes possible.

6:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
A busy week has arrived, busy in terms of shopping, travel, holiday gatherings, and oh yes, weather! And since the latter affects all listed before it, let’s focus on what is expected from it. We start the week with 2 relatively minor low pressure waves coming through. The first one brings a very light snow/rain event this morning, with only minor snow accumulation in higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH while it winds down as patchy light rain elsewhere due to an advance of milder air in the early morning hours. Between waves clouds hang tough and there is no real delivery of cold air, so for the second wave coming in later tonight into Tuesday we will still see marginal temperatures across the region with a rain/snow line expected to be in the I-95 belt from the NH Seacoast area through northeastern MA and then generally along I-90 (Mass Pike) in areas to the south. However this second wave will carry a bit more punch and as low pressure starts to gather strength as it moves offshore, it will drag a little more cold air into the region, and areas that were raining may end as mix and snow. This system will produce generally light snowfall accumulations from Boston north and west, with a few locally moderate amounts in areas that saw the lighter snow this morning, and that is the north central MA and southwestern NH higher elevations. When we get to Wednesday, a strong arctic cold front will be approaching, and while the daytime will be tolerable though chilly and breezy, a shot of unseasonably cold air will be arriving in the evening, just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday, which will be one of the coldest we’ve seen, along with some wind. A few snow showers or snow squalls are possible as this air mass arrives Wednesday evening, but the holiday itself will be dry and bright despite the chilling cold. High pressure will move right overhead Friday which will be a cold/dry day. If you are planning to be one of those overnight / early morning Black Friday shoppers, you had better be prepared for air that would be colder than normal in January, let alone November. You have been warned! Onto the detailed forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. Light snow/mix southern NH and north central MA with accumulation of 1 inch or less and light rain/mix elsewhere morning. Isolated light rain showers afternoon. Highs 37-44 except 45-52 southern RI through Cape Cod. Wind light variable except S up to 15 MPH South Coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Developing snow/mix central MA and southern NH, mix I-95 belt northwest of Boston, rain to the south and east. Lows 30-36. Wind light NE to N.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow north and west, rain south and east changing to mix/snow. Precipitation ending west to east during the afternoon. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches higher elevations north central MA and southern NH, coating to 2 inches elsewhere except little or nothing southeastern MA and RI. Highs 36-43 morning-midday, falling slightly thereafter. Wind light N to NW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of passing snow showers/squalls evening. Highs 33-39. Rapid temperature drop at night. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NNW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s. Very cold wind chills.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Less wind. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Temperatures moderate November 24-26 with a dry start to the period then increased rain chances as 1 or 2 low pressure areas impact the region. Turning colder with a few rain to snow showers otherwise a drying trend November 27-28.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Overall pattern looks polar jet stream dominated while moisture from the southern jet stream is kept at bay to the south, leaving this area cold and mainly dry with a couple minor precipitation episodes possible.

8:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Every now and then the short term pattern gets away from me and every detail I see is mis-timed or not even that close to what I envisioned. The atmosphere is attempting to subtly pull that trick on me, so this short blog update is an attempt to begin reeling that in, as the biggest problem has not been the medium ranges but the shorter range the last few days. So today just making a few adjustments to reflect unsettled weather through Tuesday instead of just the first half of Monday, and the colder trend for Thanksgiving. The next blog update will go more into detail with all. But for today just an updated detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arriving west to east as snow most areas except rain southeastern MA and southern RI. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch away from the coast east central MA north and west except possibly up to 2 inches in higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 28-35. Wind light variable.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with episodic rain and snow, with minor additional snow accumulation. Temperatures generally ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s throughout. Winds light variable Monday, light N Monday night and Tuesday.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Breezy. Evening snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY): Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
Dry November 23-24 with a gradual temperature moderation as high pressure dominates. Low pressure from the west brings the threat of wet weather later November 25 through November 26. Fair and colder weather returns at the end of the period behind this system.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Fair and cold to start the period. Will watch a storm threat around the very end of November but there is a chance a lot of that system passes to the south. Fair and cold to end the period.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
An inversion in the lower atmosphere (a layer of warm air over a layer of cold air) will support a deck of cloudiness to start today, but this inversion will break down and clouds will break for sun as the day goes on. Sunday will start with sun which will then lose out to clouds advancing ahead of a disturbance approaching New England from the west, so while the days of the weekend are a bit opposite in terms of sky cover, they will be similar in that they are both dry. But by Sunday night and into a portion of Monday, we’ll have some rain and snow around from that disturbance as it passes and ignites a new low pressure area just offshore, but this will be a fairly weak and fast-moving system, and though minor snow accumulation may occur in some locations, nothing will be hanging around and clearing will follow. This will set up a cold pre-Thanksgiving period of weather for Tuesday and Wednesday that may feature a few snow showers due to a passing disturbance Tuesday and a reinforcing cold front arriving later Wednesday, although the weather these days will be largely dry and favorable for shopping and traveling despite the cold. Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light rain/snow arriving west to east. Lows 28-36. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy with rain/snow in the morning, minor accumulation of a coating to 1 inch most likely north and west of a Boston-Providence lien, with up to 2 inches possible in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Clearing during the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind light variable morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of passing snow showers mainly early to middle part of Tuesday and again later Wednesday. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Dry but cold and possibly windy for Thanksgiving on November 22 as a delivery of arctic air may be perfectly timed to freeze the holiday. Dry with moderating temperatures following this for the remainder of the extended Thanksgiving weekend. A “Colorado Low” traveling across the country may tap enough Gulf of Mexico moisture to bring a soaking rain to the region by November 26 with fairly mild air in place, but at 10 days out this is not a forecast of high confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Colder, mainly dry, but a couple threats of snow showers would occur in a pattern dominated by disturbances passing in the polar jet stream dominated pattern.

3:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
The winter storm before winter, producing its mid winter type snowfall and ending with sleet and rain, moves out quickly during today. Behind this comes a more tranquil weather pattern. Although we hang onto clouds and damp air as the storm departs today, it will dry out for a good part of the weekend, although a disturbance much weaker than our departing storm will send clouds and light rain/snow back into the region later Sunday into Monday. Behind this comes another surge of cold air. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with areas of rain/drizzle which may mix with or turn back to snow briefly in areas northwest of Boston before ending. Breaking clouds late. Highs 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast, shifting to NW during the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: AM mix/rain showers. PM clearing. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Cold/dry for pre-Thanksgiving travel November 21. Cool/dry Thanksgiving November 22 as high pressure dominates. Generally dry with moderating temperatures thereafter, but lower confidence as to whether or not we make it to the very end of the period without the return of some wet weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Should start wet and milder then turn dry with near to below normal temperatures for the balance of the period.

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A very cold air mass for mid November is now in place and sets the stage for the first general measurable snowfall of the season for much of the region, however there will be a few exceptions and that is portions of Cape Cod and the Islands and immediate eastern shore which may see nothing if the wind is already east at the onset of precipitation. The low pressure area responsible for this event is going to track toward southern New England from the southwest as an already mature system, occluding and starting to redevelop east of itself as it delivers its front-end snow/mix to this area. The old low will still pack a bit of a punch as it goes by, probably passing just south of Boston, during Friday. A lot will have taken place between now and then, however, including a few to several inches of snow mainly over the interior, a period of sleet, and then an eventual change to rain pretty much everywhere, although by the time that happens we may have seen a dry slot move in and much of the precipitation shut down for a while before resuming with the passage of the primary storm system Friday. By the time we get to midday Friday, it’s all getting ready to shut down, ending with a burst of rain showers except rain or snow showers to the northwest and a shifting, gusty wind. After this the weekend is much more quiet, starting a bit breezy Saturday but dry and fairly bright, before clouds return ahead of a disturbance on Sunday, which may bring some light rain/snow to the region as early as Sunday night. This system will exit during Monday, which likely starts unsettled with a bit of rain/snow then ends with fair weather having returned. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow, except mix/rain Cape Cod, developing south to north evening and continuing overnight, changing first to sleet in many areas interior and rain coastal areas, then rain all areas except pockets of freezing rain central MA and interior southern NH. Snow accumulation before changeover under 2 inches coastline and Cape Cod, 2-4 inches most areas, except 4-8 inches higher elevations of northern RI, central MA, and southern NH. Lows 22-30 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light N interior areas, E 5-15 MPH elsewhere evening, E 10-20 MPH all areas overnight.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain, pockets of freezing rain valleys of north central MA and southwestern NH early. Rain tapering off late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind E increasing to 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, however shifting to briefly to SW similar speeds from near the Cape Cod Canal southeastward, shifting to N 10-20 MPH during the day, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Watch for icy patches on remaining wet ground and a freeze up of any remaining slushy snow. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM light rain/snow possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
MONDAY: Decreasing clouds. AM light snow/rain possible. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Mainly dry weather is expected during this period with a moisture-starved frontal system reinforcing some chilly air just prior to Thanksgiving then high pressure sliding off to the east and allowing moderating temperatures later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Watch for a wet weather event, likely rain as we’ll be milder in the region, most likely occurring between late November 25 and early November 27 during a transitional pattern as we watch for the possibility of a Colorado Low to tap some Gulf of Mexico moisture. If this system occurs, rain will be favored due to milder air in place. Dry weather and a colder trend for later in the period as we enter a pattern dominated by the polar jet stream.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Before we get to the relatively minor, albeit first general measurable snowfall of the season, there is actually weather occurring before that, which I will not skip talking about. That is a blustery northwesterly air flow transporting cold air into the region. In fact a strip of snow showers has made it all the way from the Great Lakes into Massachusetts as of dawn. But that snow won’t be the story today, just the breeze, chill, and plenty of sun. The cold really settles in tonight as high pressure builds in, then this high will slowly retreat during Thursday toward the Maritimes of Canada as our next storm system approaches from the southwest. This system be in the process of maturing and redeveloping just east of itself as it passes through the region during Friday. In advance of it, moisture arriving with cold air in place means snow for most areas at first, though it may start mixed on Cape Cod before going right to rain. The rain will also overtake the immediate coast rather quickly as the water temperatures are still quite mild and the wind will be coming off of it. A little further inland a lighter northerly air flow will keep cold air in longer, allowing a little more accumulation of snowfall. See the detailed forecast below for expected amounts. During Friday, other than a period of freezing rain interior valleys and higher elevations, we’ll see rain expand west and north and overtake the region before tapering off later in the day. Behind this departing system will come another episode of gusty wind, not as strong as the one that rattled your windows overnight. The air mass behind that system is also not as chilly as the one entering the region at this time, although it will be a pretty chilly weekend regardless. By Sunday, a disturbance will approach, bringing cloudiness and eventually some rain or snow showers. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy into mid morning with a few light snow showers south central MA into northern RI and interior southeastern MA, then sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH higher elevations, gusts 25-40 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22 interior, 23-30 coast and urban centers. Wind diminishing to calm.
THURSDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, except mix/rain Cape Cod, developing south to north evening and continuing overnight, changing to rain by dawn except pockets of freezing rain central MA and southern NH away from the coast. Snow accumulation before changeover under 1 inch coastline and Cape Cod through Plymouth County of MA, 1-3 inches most areas, except 3-5 inches higher elevations northern I-495 belt northwestward. Lows 22-30 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light N interior areas, E 5-15 MPH elsewhere evening, E 10-20 MPH all areas overnight.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain, pockets of freezing rain valleys of north central MA and southwestern NH early. Rain tapering off late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 15-25 MPH coast, shifting to N 10-20 MPH during the day.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain/snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Big 5 days here with pre-Thanksgiving travel weather November 19-21 to take place under generally favorable conditions with a departing disturbance to bring a rain/snow shower early November 19 and a quick frontal passage late November 20 or early November 21 with a few rain/snow showers, otherwise generally dry weather with no major storminess. High pressure should dominate Thanksgiving and “Black Friday” with dry and cool weather for the day of football and food and milder weather for the day of shopping (or avoiding it).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Watch for a wet weather event, likely rain as we’ll be milder in the region, most likely occurring between late November 25 and early November 27.

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
A rapidly-moving low pressure area soaks the region through midday today, then a dry-out process begins as the low pulls away. As the low pressure area passes across the region, quite the variety of wind will occur, with winds ranging from light northerly in central MA and southwestern NH to light variable around Boston, and southwesterly all the way up to 40-60 MPH in gusts across Cape Cod and Nantucket, but as the low pulls away, a moderate and gusty northwesterly air flow overtakes the entire region. A quick temperature drop will cause rainwater to freeze up, but on many surfaces it should be able to dry before this happens. But be careful in areas that it does not this evening and tonight as the temperature drops. Wednesday will be the coldest day of the season so far, along with a gusty wind. High pressure moves overhead for a quick drop off of the wind at night and a tranquil Thursday, though high clouds will arrive ahead of our next storm system, which starts as snow/mix later Thursday night before going to rain as milder ocean air overtakes the lower atmosphere Friday. This system will begin to pull away later Friday and set up a return to dry and chilly weather for the start of the weekend. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with rain, heavy at times through midday. Lingering drizzle and lighter rain early afternoon ending mid to late afternoon as clouds break. Highs 45-52 except 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH southern NH and central MA, light variable east central MA to northern RI, SE to SW 10-25 MPH southern RI across southeastern MA except 25-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH Cape Cod and Islands, shifting to NW all areas late in the day 15-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Watch for icing up of lingering wet ground in areas north and west of Boston. Lows 25-33. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-26. Diminishing NW wind.
THURSDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Highs 37-43. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Pre-dawn snow/mix interior and mix/rain coast arriving then rain likely, tapering off late-day or nighttime. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Sun/clouds. Slight risk of a rain shower early. Breezy. Lows from the middle to upper 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Disturbance brings late-day rain/snow shower risk November 18. Front may bring a rain shower at some point around November 20 and weak disturbance may arrive with a rain or snow shower by the end of the period, otherwise a largely dry period of weather with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
Dry start and end to this period. A period of wet weather possible in between. Temperatures will likely be close to seasonal averages.

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
High pressure over the region this morning, starting the day bright and cold, retreats to the northeast during the day as low pressure approaches from the southwest, and the day ends on the greyer side. We may also see some haziness in the sky due to smoke from California wildfires that has traveled across the country in the mid and upper level winds. The low pressure area represents our next slug of solid rainfall which will cross the region Tuesday before exiting to allow a shot of cold air in for Wednesday, but with the arrival of this cold air we’ll have to watch for any puddles and areas of wet pavement to ice up Tuesday night especially north and west of Boston. High pressure will move overhead and quickly settle the winds down Wednesday night and set up a cold Thursday morning but a dry and tranquil daytime. Another low pressure area will already be approaching from the south southwest at that time, hopefully the last in the series, and will bring more wet weather Friday, though this system may have some mix/snow involved at the outset in a larger portion of the region – details to be worked out. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine through midday, some smoke in mid to high altitudes, and increasing cloudiness during the afternoon. Highs 42-48. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight, may begin as brief mix/snow from northern Worcester Hills of MA to Monadnock region of NH. Lows 34-41. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times through midday. Drizzle and areas of lighter rain later in the day. Highs 45-52 except 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind SE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, may shift briefly to SW Cape Cod, shifting to NE then N all areas late-day.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy start, then partial clearing. Watch for icing up of lingering wet ground in areas north and west of Boston. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a snow shower. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Pre-dawn snow/mix/rain arriving then rain likely, tapering off late-day or nighttime. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
Weekend of November 17-18 will feature sun/clouds, 40s, and a possible rain shower Saturday followed by lots of clouds, 30s, and a possible snow shower Sunday, along with plenty of wind as a strong northwesterly flow dominates and an upper level disturbance crosses the region. Look for milder and more tranquil weather November 19-20 although a cold front may bring a brief rain shower sometime on November 20 based on current timing. This would return seasonably chilly air to the region by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Very preliminary but Thanksgiving (November 22) and Black Friday (November 23) as well as the start of the weekend look dry at this point with a chance of more wet weather by the end of the period. Temperatures will likely be close to seasonal averages.

8:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
Veterans Day 2018, bright, chilly, and breezy, but at least it’s not wet, and that’s lucky given the frequency of wet days this autumn. That pattern will continue with the next wet weather system Tuesday and perhaps another threat late in the week which I’ll discuss in the second section of the blog. No big changes to anything I said yesterday. The track of Tuesday’s low may be just a touch further southeast but that won’t really have much of an impact on what was going to happen anyway, and that is another good slug of soaking rain. Before the storm’s arrival, it’s interesting to note that smoke from California’s wildfires may give the sky a hazy appearance even before the high cloudiness increases on Monday. Still expecting the coldest air of the season so far to follow Tuesday’s storm. Forecast details…
TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below freezing morning, 30s afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-26 interior, 27-34 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY OBSERVED): Smoke-filtered sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain starts pre-dawn, perhaps as a brief mix Worcester Hills and Monadnock region. Lows 32-38. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times, tapering to lighter rain/drizzle late. Areas of fog. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
WEDNESDAY: Windy. Sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a passing snow shower. Temperatures fall into 30s day, 20s night.
THURSDAY: Sunshine and high clouds. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
Storm threat exists for November 16 but at the moment I’m leaning toward an incomplete connection between the polar and subtropical jet streams with the mean burst of energy missing this area to the southeast and just some rain/snow showers around, fair weather following although breezy and chilly on November 17, then clouds and a risk of light precipitation (possibly mix to rain) November 18 as a disturbance not really seen by guidance yet moves into the region. Fair and slightly milder weather to end the period as the jet stream relaxes and a flat ridge overtakes the East.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
Currently expecting important travel/holiday/shopping time to be a fairly quiet stretch of weather with perhaps a weak system bringing light rain at some point around November 23 or 24. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

10:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)
Low pressure sits over southern New England this morning and is responsible for the murky start with overcast, drizzle, and areas of fog lingering after last night’s heavier rain has moved away. But a change will take place during the day as the low pressure departs and intensifies fairly rapidly while moving away. A system that does this draws dry air rapidly into the region it just left, and this is often done with plenty of wind. Though the wind will not end up as ferocious as it did a week ago today, you will notice it by afternoon and evening. This wind will also be transporting colder air into the region which you’ll very much feel tonight and early Sunday. So if your city or town is doing Veterans Day ceremonies Sunday morning (some wait until Monday) then prepare for a chill and a lingering breeze. Winds will relax during Sunday as high pressure builds in, and this will set up a more calm but quite cold night Sunday night. For several days we have been keeping an eye on the November 12-14 period for a storm system that may include snow for parts of the region. Don’t worry, I’m not about to forecast a snowstorm. As it is now that these 3 days fall in my DAYS 1-5 period, it’s time for details. And they are that a storm will approach later Monday and there is only the slight risk that the onset of precipitation, if quick enough, may including a bit of snow or mix over interior areas late Monday night. Don’t count on it. The low will track rapidly northeastward right across the region Tuesday with another slug of moderate to heavy rainfall. Snow will be confined to the mountains of northern New England. As the system departs Wednesday, however, it will drag down air cold enough to support snow, but by that time all the moisture will be gone, and all that we’d be left with is the risk of a few passing light snow showers, if they were to survive a trip out of the mountains and hills. Any flakes that do manage to make it into the area that day would be insignificant, but they would mark the arrival coldest air mass of the season so far. But that air mass is coming regardless of the occurrence of any snow showers. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog, drizzle, and patchy light rain this morning morning then breaking clouds leading to a midday and afternoon sun/cloud mixture. Temperatures fall from the lower 50s slowly through the 40s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH morning, W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-34. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SUNDAY (VETERANS DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below freezing morning, 30s afternoon.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-26 interior, 27-34 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind light variable.
MONDAY (VETERANS DAY OBSERVED): Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: A storm of rain which may begin as a brief mix pre-dawn. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Windy. Sun/cloud mix. Slight risk of a passing snow shower. Temperatures fall into 30s day, 20s night.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
Dry and chilly start and end to the period. In the middle we’ll see a front come through with northern jet stream energy and a storm evolving offshore with a combination of northern and southern jet stream energy.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
An important period of days with a lot of travel and football games around the Thanksgiving holiday which is November 22, and of course “Black Friday” and all that goes with that. A pattern that is progressive and more northern jet stream dominated should just send a front through the area around November 21 and another later in the period. These would be minor events in comparison to recent ones. Temperatures, though variable, would average closer to seasonal averages.

6:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
Low pressure will approach from the southwest today then intensify while crossing the region tonight, bringing a good slug of rainfall with it. Though the heaviest of this rain will have exited by dawn Saturday, the day will start out murky as low pressure will be just departing with lots of trapped low level moisture before the drier air arrives. Once it does, it will clear and dry out but get quite windy Saturday. A gusty breeze will continue into Sunday as well but will decrease quite a bit compared to Saturday afternoon, although it will be cooler Sunday, still a very nice Veterans Day. For the observed holiday on Monday it will be dry though clouds will advance ahead of the next system in a series. That one is expected to also bring a good slug of rain to the region Tuesday, that could start as a brief mix if precipitation arrives quickly enough Monday night (long shot chance). Forecast details…
TODAY: Early sun then clouding over. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusty late in the day.
TONIGHT: Overcast with rain and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast, shifting to N.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of drizzle and a chance of rain through mid morning., then a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures steady 47-54 early then falling slowly through the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of rain at night that may start as mix/snow. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Windy and colder with a few snow showers possible otherwise dry November 14. Dry and cold but more tranquil November 15 under high pressure. Weak system brings a risk of a few rain/snow showers at some point between later November 16 and early November 17 followed by dry and seasonably chilly weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
This is Thanksgiving week and so far the early look is for mainly dry weather to start and end it with a front passing by about mid week with a risk of rain showers. Temperatures closer to seasonal averages overall.

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
No big changes for this update, just some fine-tuning in the short term. High pressure arrives today and hangs on until early Friday with fair weather, then a low pressure area advances rapidly into the region by late Friday producing a quick but strong pulse of wet weather Friday night ending very early Saturday. Winds pick up Saturday behind this departing storm system as it intensifies and another area of high pressure approaches. This high will bring fair weather for the balance of the weekend including into Monday which is an observed Veterans Day holiday for some after the actual holiday on Sunday. Dry but chilly weather will be in place for observances on either day. By late Monday, however, clouds will arrived in advance of the next storm system as the active weather pattern continues. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind light NW to light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-36. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Early sun then clouding over. Chance of rain by late afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusty late in the day.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain and a slight risk of thunderstorms. Temperatures steady 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast, shifting to N.
SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of drizzle and a chance of rain early morning, then a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures falling slowly through the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then W increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 40s.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Chance of rain at night that may start as mix/snow. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Storm system impacts the region Tuesday looking like mainly a rain event but have to watch interior higher elevations for mix/snow possibility. Cold air arrives November 14 with a risk of a few snow showers otherwise dry/windy. Dry/cold but tranquil November 15. Minor system may produce a few rain/snow showers later November 16 to early November 17 with only slight moderation in temperature.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
This currently looks like a fairly dry period with more seasonable temperatures, just a frontal passage around November 21 with a few rain showers.

7:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
Departing low pressure and approaching high pressure will result in an increasing breeze but dry and fairly mild weather during today. Cooler air arrives with high pressure Thursday, which will be a nice day. A chilly night as high pressure is overhead Thursday night but this high quickly departs Friday as low pressure approaches from the southwest in a pattern somewhat similar to late last week, with a period of wet weather, followed by a weekend that is damp turning dry and windy Saturday and fair and more tranquil Sunday, which is Veterans Day. Though some areas hold their observances the next day, there are some cities and towns doing it on the Sunday, including Woburn, and the conditions will be dry but chilly for those ceremonies. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 55-62. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH early, diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind light NW to light variable.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-36. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Early sun then clouding over. Chance of rain by late afternoon and night. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusty late in the day.
SATURDAY: Early rain shower possible otherwise sun/clouds, becoming windy. Temperatures steady in the 40s through day falling to 30s night.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)
The next in a series of storm systems will impact the region late November 12 to November 14, with a risk of snow/mix/rain from the night of November 12 into November 13. It’s very early but any mix/snow would favor the interior if it were to occur with rain more likely closer to the coast. A much colder air mass arrives as the system departs with snow showers possible November 14 then fair weather November 15. Weaker system may bring rain/snow showers by November 16 but timing uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
A less stormy pattern here, with dry weather to start and end the period and a minor system with light precipitation mid period. Temperatures below normal.