C-19 Chat Post – June 6 2020

7:10AM

BLOG TEST THEME #5: Twenty-Fifteen

This is the 5th of 8 layouts in the test run. Please continue to comment on the layouts as we go along. Don’t hold back, even if you hate it. I didn’t make these up, and some of them I am definitely not a fan of at all. This one, however, may be my favorite so far (close between yesterday’s and today’s).

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

The muggies are back. After a very warm to hot but dry day Thursday, the frontal boundary that’s become the relative that won’t go home has shifted its position back to the north, putting our region back into the humid air again, and it will stay this way into Saturday. We had one round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms around dawn, which is moving out as of the time of this writing. During the day today, clouds should be dominant but some sun is possible as well, and it will be just unstable enough that a few isolated showers and storms may pop up, but I do expect most of the daylight hours to remain rain-free across most of southeastern New England. Tonight, the risk of showers and thunderstorms goes up again. There’s a bit of conflict on different guidance as to where the axis of most frequent and heaviest activity will be, with the majority favoring the I-95 belt southeastward, so I’ll also lean in this direction. Timing is also variable, and will depend on when and where activity develops upstream during the day. This should clear out of the region before dawn Saturday, and then we have one more shot at a shower or thunderstorm along a cold front which will cut through the region from west to east from late morning through mid afternoon. Behind this front, we’ll see a dew point drop as drier air moves in from Canada, but the position of high pressure will turn wind a little more northeasterly and keep coastal areas cooler during Sunday. Colder air aloft will also incite additional cloudiness and perhaps a few showers, especially near a minor convergence zone between northeasterly coastal winds and winds a little more northerly over interior areas. So I’d love to tell you Sunday will be a stellar day, but I cannot. That will wait for Monday, when high pressure, still to the north, will be met with more stable air above and we’ll see wall-to-wall sunshine but continued cooler than average temperatures. It will warm up a little bit as high pressure hangs on Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Any early showers/thunderstorms moving out. Isolated additional showers/thunderstorms possible, mainly mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely mainly after 10PM with greatest chance I-95 southeastward. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly late morning and midday west of I-95 and midday to late afternoon from I-95 southeastward. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)

Advancing warmer air and higher humidity means more cloudiness but limited rain chances June 10-11, then a better chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches and passes through during June 12-13. It still looks like the main moisture from whatever is left of T.S. Cristobal (expected to move from the Gulf of Mexico into the central US) moves into Canada and misses this area, which is in need of significant rain. Dry weather is expected with lower humidity by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

High pressure dominant in eastern Canada and weak systems in the US indicates a drier and slightly cooler than average pattern for our region for mid June.

C-19 Chat Post – June 5 2020

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

The frontal boundary that will be toying with the region through the weekend will be far enough south today to allow a very nice late spring / early summer day, definitely feeling like summer with warm air in place, but comfortable with low humidity. But back comes that front tonight with clouds, one round of showers (maybe a few embedded thunderstorms but low risk of that), and that introduces the humidity back into the picture for Friday into Saturday when the front pushes back to the south once again. There will be a couple more rounds of showers and storms possible during the humid phase as well, mainly Friday afternoon in scattered form, and a little better chance sometime Friday night with an impulse of low pressure passing by, and once again with the actual front passing by during Saturday. Sunday, the front will be to the south but the orientation of high pressure to the north, in eastern Canada, will turn the wind flow northeast, and the front not being that far away will likely combine to hold a lot of cloudiness in the region, and I’m still not ruling out a few showers developing as well. Monday, the high in Canada will exert more influence and turn us sunnier, cooler, and dry.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds evening. Mostly cloudy overnight with a round of showers favoring areas near and south of I-90, along with a slight risk of a thunderstorm. Increasingly humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring the early morning (before 8AM) and mid to late afternoon (after 2PM) hours. Humid. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast with coolest Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible mainly after 10PM. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly late morning and midday west of I-95 and midday to late afternoon from I-95 southeastward. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 9-13)

High pressure from Canada brings fair, pleasant weather June 9. Then we go back to the pattern with a nearby frontal boundary and bouts of cloudiness while cool air to the north battles warm and humid air to the south. This also means a few shower and thunderstorm threats as well. But despite being in this pattern again it looks like rainfall for the region as a whole will still be below average. The early indications are that moisture from Tropical Storm Cristobal (Gulf of Mexico) will eventually travel through the middle of the US and instead of toward New England will move into Canada and actually result in a very late spring snowstorm somewhere between Lake Superior and Hudson Bay. That will be interesting to watch.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

High pressure dominant in eastern Canada and weak systems in the US indicates a drier and slightly cooler than average pattern for our region for mid June.

C-19 Chat Post – June 4 2020

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 3-7)

A warm front passing through the region early today will introduce warmer and more humid air to the region, but a cold front quickly on its heals will bring the risk of a shower or thunderstorm to some areas by later in the day, although it looks like the bulk of that activity may occur southwest of the WHW forecast area, across western MA and CT. Still have to watch for one elsewhere. A sliver of drier air arrives for Thursday, behind the cold front, but it’s not a strong front so it will remain rather warm anyway. Also, that front won’t get that far south of the region and a disturbance coming along it will allow a batch of clouds to come back in later in the day and even a chance of some shower and isolated thunderstorm activity favoring the South Coast overnight Thursday night / Friday morning. In fact the boundary will lift back to the north with time and bring back the humid air during Friday and into Saturday, when low pressure passing north of the region will again drive the front back to the south for the second half of the weekend, introducing cooler air, but will there be any significant clearing? I’m not banking on it. A still-close-by front and a northeasterly air flow with high pressure to the north does not often promote a clean clear-out behind the front, so Sunday may end up at least mostly cloudy, and we may even see some shower activity. Yup, this is that boundary that I mentioned last week being in the area for the second half of this week.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible from mid afternoon on. More humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers mainly south of I-90. Lows 60-67. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly morning and midday. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 8-12)

High pressure from Canada brings fair, cooler weather June 8-9. Then we go back to the pattern with a nearby frontal boundary and bouts of cloudiness while cool air to the north battles warm and humid air to the south. This also means a few shower and thunderstorm threats as well. We’ll have to keep an eye on possible remnant tropical moisture from a Gulf of Mexico system that may be involved in enhancing rainfall before this 5-day period ends.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 13-17)

Return to a drier pattern. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 3 2020

2:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 2-6)

A warm front will approach today, sending clouds back into the region. This front will not have enough moisture for widespread rainfall, so only scattered light rain is possible mainly this evening. As the front slowly but steadily pushes its way eastward through Wednesday morning, a few additional showers may occur. We then get into a wedge of warmer and more humid air during the day Wednesday, when we may see a few additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm as a cold front approaches. This front will also have limited ability to produce much activity, so many areas will see a rain-free Wednesday for most of if not all of the day. The cold front clears the region by early Thursday and drops the humidity a bit, although it will still be a fairly warm day, but the front comes back again to the north on Friday and Saturday with more humidity and a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms possible, though once again it does not look like it will be a widespread rainfall situation.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Scattered light rain late. Highs 65-72. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of showers early morning, then partly sunny. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms mainly morning and midday. Humid. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 7-11)

A frontal boundary will hang up just to the south for a while June 7 with high pressure in eastern Canada and a northeasterly air flow setting up with cooler conditions, lots of clouds and perhaps some isolated to scattered showers. High pressure from the north pushes southward with drier weather June 8-9, temperatures running a little below normal. Temperatures return to near normal June 10-11 but during this time the risk of rainfall may increase, and toward the end of the period we may have to watch for remnant tropical moisture from a Gulf of Mexico system that could potentially bring the first threat of needed significant rain in quite some time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 12-16)

Return to a drier pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – June 2 2020

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 1-5)

Welcome to June and Meteorological Summer! While the summer solstice is still just under 3 weeks away the “climate summer” gets underway today. And it won’t really feel much like summer as we have a cool high pressure area centered to the west, and an upper level low pressure trough about to cross the region. This disturbance will help clouds pop up today, some of which will produce showers. It will be breezy and on the cool side as well. The upper low exits tonight and a warm front approaches Tuesday, bringing more cloudiness and eventually a risk of a little light rainfall. This will introduce warmer and slightly more humid air for Wednesday, a day that will be mainly rain-free but still feature the risk of a shower or thunderstorm, especially south of I-90, as a weak cold front moves in late. This front will bring the humidity and temperature down a tick or two for Thursday but the front will also hang in the region and drift back to the north by Friday, a day with lots of clouds but more warmth and humidity, and a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Risk of passing showers this afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Scattered light rain late. Highs 65-72. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of showers early morning, then partly sunny. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 69-76. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 6-10)

A frontal boundary will be in the region on the June 6-7 weekend, likely with this area on the warm/humid side Saturday with a few showers and possible thunderstorms, and on the cooler side Sunday with a few showers. High pressure brings fair weather June 8-9 with a cooler start then warming. Warm front may approach with clouds and showers by June 10.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 11-15)

Leaning toward slightly cooler than average and drier than average during this 5-day period.

C-19 Chat Post – June 1 2020

8:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)

We’ve reached the end of May, and the month is ending on a very dry, breezy and fairly bright note, though today’s sunshine will have to share the sky with passing fair weather clouds, at least for a portion of the day. Still, a very nice way to end the month of May after an early season bout of warmth combined with humidity. The forecast heading into the early days of June remains pretty much as it was on yesterday’s update, including a disturbance crossing the region with a shower threat and even cooler air Monday, a warm front approaching later Tuesday and passing through at night with some wet weather, a warmer Wednesday with a shower or thunderstorm threat as a cold front moves through later in the day, and a return to cooler air once again for Thursday. Additional note: Last night, sky watchers in eastern MA, southeastern NH, RI, and eastern CT were treated to an overhead pass of the International Space Station, and 45 seconds later a pass of the Crew Dragon space capsule, which was launched Saturday afternoon from Florida. The 2 will dock this morning and together will make a visible pass across the sky of southeastern New England just after 9PM this evening, from northwest to southeast (9:04-9:08PM). The sky will be clear for this!

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine then increasing clouds late. Highs 63-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of showers early morning, then partly sunny. Risk of a late-day shower or thunderstorm. More humid. Highs 72-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)

Warm front approaches and brings clouds back with a rain threat at some point June 5. Warm sector June 6, warmer and more humid, risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Frontal boundary hanging in the area makes for a tricky temperature forecast and allows for at least lots of cloudiness and perhaps some scattered rainfall in the June 7-8 time frame before it dries out at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)

Leaning toward slightly cooler than average and drier than average during this 5-day period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 31 2020

9:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)

It’s transition day! Today, a cold front crossing the region will bring an end to the early-season warm/muggy episode and introduce a much drier air mass from Canada, but it’s a slow process taking most of the day today to occur. With the front not completely across the region yet, we still run the risk of a few showers and even a brief thunderstorm popping up through about early afternoon. Most areas will likely escape the activity, but if a line should get itself together the coverage, while brief, could be more widespread for a portion of southeastern New England. But odds are against this, so if you have outdoor plans, go about them and just keep an eye on the sky. Tonight, a secondary trough will push through the region from west to east with some clouds at times, but most shower activity that fires up during the day in NY State should not make it much further than the Berkshires or Connecticut River Valley before dissipating. What you will definitely feel tonight is cooler and much drier air. And this dry air will be in place for Sunday, along with a gusty breeze, sunshine and passing clouds, as high pressure moves across the Great Lakes and toward the Ohio Valley. The position of this high and the upper level air flow will allow a disturbance coming out of southern Canada to cross New England on Monday, introducing more cloudiness, a possible passing shower or two, and even cooler air. But this fast-flow pattern means quick changes and by Tuesday we’ll already be seeing the next disturbance approach by later in the day, after a mainly dry day, clouds return and a risk of some insignificant wet weather at night, putting us into a warmer and slightly more humid sector of air for Wednesday with mainly dry weather – just a minimal shower threat.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of passing showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm favoring areas west of I-95 morning and I-95 eastward midday to early afternoon. Decreasing humidity. Highs 76-83, cooler South Coast especially Cape Cod. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine then increasing clouds late. Highs 63-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of a shower. More humid. Highs 72-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)

A passing shower otherwise mainly dry and cooler June 4 as a cold front moves through. Warm front approaches and brings clouds back with a rain threat at some point June 5. Warm sector June 6, warmer and more humid, risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Frontal boundary hanging in the area makes for a tricky temperature forecast and allows for at least lots of cloudiness and perhaps some scattered rainfall in the June 7-8 time frame.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)

Leaning toward slightly cooler than average and drier than average during this 5-day period.

C-19 Chat Post – May 30 2020