7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
As we head into mid February, the large scale pattern will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure in the US Southeast, while we have an active jet stream sending low pressure systems in the battle zone between southeastern warmth and building colder air in Canada. Much of the winter we’ve had the arctic air bottled up far to the north, with the result being a very mild pattern since around the solstice (after colder weather before that). But some of that air will be released in small pieces and help build more cold to our north, intensifying the battle between the air masses. We’ll see 3 unsettled days as a result of this battle during the next 5 days: Monday, Tuesday, Thursday. Monday’s unsettled weather will be mainly the first half of the day and mainly in the form of rain, Tuesday’s will be mainly midday and afternoon and again mainly in the form of rain (which may start as a brief mix to the north), and Thursday’s, starting late Wednesday night, will begin as snow and probably transition to rain for most areas, though it may be little more of a struggle to get it to turn over to rain in southern NH as colder air that arrives Wednesday may be a little more stubborn. But what about Friday? Bundle up. It’s going to be pretty cold to end the week.
TODAY: Cloudy through midday with rain (possible mix higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH) ending west to east early afternoon. Breaking clouds and just a risk of an additional rain shower thereafter. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, SW 5-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH mid morning into afternoon, shifting to NW later.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain southern NH and northern MA, rain likely elsewhere, mainly late morning to mid afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Snow arriving pre-dawn, mixing with or changing to rain South Coast. Lows 20-27. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast with rain South Coast, snow to rain most areas but may remain mixed southwestern NH. Highs 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Rapid freeze-up of any standing water / wet surfaces. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Fair, cold February 15. Quick warm-up February 16 with late-day rain showers as low pressure tracks north of this area. Fair, colder weather returns February 17 into February 18 and the next system brings a chance of rain/mix/snow later February 18 or February 19.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Fair, seasonably cold early period. Watching February 22-24 for potential winter storm threat.

11:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Late update today so quick and to the point. A weakening system approaches today and may cause a touch of light snow mostly west and north of Boston, but city flakes can’t be ruled out either. Then a low pressure area will fly down the St. Lawrence Valley then cut across northern Maine Monday, and its warm front will bring some rain and snow to the region Monday morning followed by its cold front and a few rain showers Monday afternoon. This cold front comes to a halt just after passing by and a wave of low pressure will run along it. It’s a close call whether this passes just too far south or close enough to bring its precipitation shield into southeastern New England, but right now I’m leaning toward the “bring it in” scenario, although the air should be mild enough for rain, and not snow. That departs and we get a high pressure area bringing slightly colder air in for Wednesday, setting the stage for the next low to come along Thursday, with marginal temperatures, and the precipitation type question to be answered as we get closer to the event.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of a touch of light snow. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Remote risk of a touch of light snow south of Boston evening. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a period of snow/sleet interior, rain coast early, then rain tapering off from west to east in the morning. A few rain showers possible from northwest to southeast in the afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, SW 5-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH mid morning into afternoon, shifting to NW later.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain southern NH and northern MA. Rain likely elsewhere. Highs 38-45. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 20-27. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast with rain/mix/snow (details to be determined later). Highs 32-39. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Dry and seasonably cold weather February 14-15. Watching the remainder of the period for an unsettled weather threat with any type of precipitation possible.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
One or two more opportunities here for messy winter weather but far too early for details.

9:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
High pressure will be the dominant player this weekend, which will be cold and dry for the most part. But each day will have a possible yet minor exception. First, we’re still in the pressure gradient this morning between the approaching high and departing low that impacted the region yesterday, and there will be just enough low level moisture to pop some cumulus clouds and a remote risk that one of them may grow just enough to produce an isolated snow flurry today, mainly north of Boston, but the risk is tiny and fleeting. And on Sunday, the fragmented remains of what was originally being watched for a possible snowstorm will bring some cloudiness into the region and a remote risk of a few stray snowflakes, this time favoring areas south and west of Boston. Despite the weekend break we’re not out of the woods for weather action, and before this 5 day period is up we’ll have a low pressure area travel eastward but pass north of here later Monday, dragging a warm front / cold front combo through, with a risk of some interior snow/sleet and coastal rain from the warm front in the early hours of Monday, with rain showers from the cold front during the day Monday as we get a shot of milder air post warm front / pre cold front. The cold front will settle just to the south of the region Tuesday at which time a wave of low pressure will be moving eastward along it, passing just south of New England. This won’t be a strong storm until it gets well beyond this area but it may spread a shield of rain/mix into parts of southern New England for several hours Tuesday. A little slower evolution and it may end up as a complete miss. So there will be a tad bit of fine-tuning to do with that one. High pressure moves in with dry and chilly weather for Tuesday night into Wednesday, but we may already be seeing a rapid advance of cloudiness during Wednesday ahead of the next weather system…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Remote risk of a brief snow flurry north of Boston. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts this morning, diminishing this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Remote risk of a touch of light snow south and west of Boston afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Remote risk of a touch of light snow south of Boston evening. Lows 23-30. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a period of snow/sleet interior, rain coast early, then occasional rain showers. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH early, then SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain showers early. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain/mix especially South Coast. Highs 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Active pattern with a couple of opportunities for significant winter weather events mainly early and again later in the period. Not sure how these play out yet but we’ll be in that battle zone between building cold to the north and continued mild weather to the south. There is quite a bit of potential for extended unsettled weather which may include frozen precipitation.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
One or two more opportunities here for messy winter weather but far too early for details.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
A lot will go on today in the weather department. We start the day with very little wind, just a northerly drift of air in interior areas and a variable breeze nearer the coastline, an overcast with areas of fog, and ribbons of rainfall, some pockets of freezing rain over interior areas where surface temperatures have slipped back below freezing. And big changes take place like a chaotic crowd of kindergarten kids running around at recess as the 2nd in a 1-2 low pressure punch comes by. This low is going to first cause the region to warm up, especially southern and eastern areas, although the colder interior areas will eventually warm to above freezing and alleviate the icy issue. Our precipitation from this passing 2nd low will produce its heaviest rain over Cape Cod and keep an area of heavy sleet and snow far to the north (big snow in some mountains and across the Canadian border). As the elongated low center starts to tighten up as it meets perfect conditions for rapid strengthening just as it is crossing southeastern New England during the day today, one more batch of rain showers may occur, and a couple of those may be heavy and even contain hail and thunder (though that will be the exception not the rule). The big story will become the wind as this system gets just beyond the region. First, a westerly wind will be felt increasing rapidly near the South Coast, and then as the low center departs a northwesterly wind will erupt across the region, strongest over eastern and southern areas where gusts above 40 MPH are likely, gust above 50 MPH are very possible, and gusts above 60 MPH are not out of the question. This will last several hours into this evening before the wind starts to scale back gradually, though this diminishment will take much of the day Saturday to complete itself. And Saturday will feel pretty cold as the temperatures, which plunges to the 20s tonight, struggles to get back to freezing, with a gusty breeze to add to that – something we have not seen too much of during the course of this winter so fair. Sunday’s weather while more tranquil will still be cold, and a weak area of low pressure will travel south of the region tossing a shield of high cloudiness across the sky to filter the sun. By Monday, another low heads from the Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence Valley, and a morning warm frontal passage may yield brief snow/sleet/rain for some areas before we are in the warm sector with a rain shower risk and milder air. The cold front trailing from the low will cross the region Monday night and a wave of low pressure traveling along it should stay south of the region Tuesday, but may be close enough to bring some rain to the South Coast.
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and periods of rain morning, with pockets of freezing rain north central MA and interior southern NH. Breaking clouds with a few rain showers, possibly briefly heavy with a slight risk of thunder and hail through mid afternoon, then a sun/cloud mix later in the day. Highs 38-43 southwestern NH and north central MA, 44-49 elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH coastal areas and N under 10 MPH interior morning, becoming W then NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH except 25-35 MPH South Coast during this afternoon, with late-day gusts above 40-55 MPH and possibly 55-65 MPH, with higher elevations and some South Coast areas seeing isolated higher gusts still.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, strongest in eastern areas, diminishing somewhat overnight. Wind chill near 0 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 20 at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 22-29 evening, rising back to the 30s overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain/sleet/snow possible favoring northern areas early, then a chance of rain showers mainly in the afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers evening. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain South Coast. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Active pattern and near the border of cold north and mild south so any types of precipitation may occur, with current timing bringing threats through the region late February 12 into February 13, and again by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Similar pattern with episodes of unsettled weather and variable temperatures.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
On this date 42 years ago, a historic blizzard was about to get underway. The Blizzard of ’78 is still the storm to which all others are compared to, or fail to measure up to, for many who were around for it. Today, a storm has arrived, and it definitely will not measure up, but make no mistake, it is significant in that it is impacting the morning commute with snow and ice in a good portion of the region, causing delays and some cancellations. Forecast-wise, there are no significant changes with this system, as today we see a transition to rain take place, but freezing rain has been occurring already in areas southwest of Boston, maybe a little more than expected, and while it warms up there, we will see temperatures struggle to get to and above freezing in some sections of north central MA and interior southern NH, so the icing threat will be with those areas after transition to rain for much of the day. There will be a lull in the precipitation as low #1 of 2 goes by, and it should be warm enough in all areas for just rain for a good portion of the precipitation from the second low, which will soak the region especially early Friday, but all the while, colder air will be set to move in from the north once again and we’ll need to watch the surface temperatures for a chance to freezing rain before precipitation attempts to go to sleet and/or snow before ending. But I still feel the steadiest of it should be exiting right around the time it is cold enough to support frozen precipitation again, so any accumulation on the back side should be limited, and many areas may just see a passing shower of sleet or snow instead. More importantly will be the free-up of any standing water or any remaining wet surfaces on Friday night as much colder air arrives. There will be wind so that will provide some aid in the drying process. However if you do plan on being out, use caution. The weekend currently looks dry and cold as high pressure dominates Saturday and a very weak low pressure area passes south of the region, too far south for impact, on Sunday. One change I have to make to today’s forecast is to bring the next system in more quickly, but it currently looks like it will be a low pressure area heading for northern New England or the St. Lawrence Valley on Monday, putting southern New England into milder air with rain showers the most likely type of precipitation we see here. But at 5 days out, there are still time for additional changes, as this pattern of multiple systems and fast movement can play havoc with any forecast.
TODAY: Overcast. Snow/sleet/freezing rain transitioning to rain but pockets of freezing rain remaining north central MA and southern NH. Little additional snow/sleet accumulation from here on. Highs 31-36 central MA through southern NH, 37-42 elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Pockets of freezing rain still possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures ranging from 32-37 north central MA and southern NH to near 50 Cape Cod. Wind SE 5-15 MPH RI and southeastern MA, variable from E to N up to 10 MPH elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Overcast through early afternoon with rain, possibly freezing rain pockets north central to northeastern MA and southern NH, then precipitation may turn to sleet and/or snow from northwest to southeast before ending. Mostly cloudy remainder of day with a risk of passing showers of sleet/snow Boston area north and west, rain showers then mix/snow showers southeast of Boston. Temperatures remaining in the 30s north central and northeastern MA through southern NH, falling into the 30s elsewhere. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29 evening, rising back to the 30s overnight. Wind variable up to 10 MPH evening, SW 5-15 MPH overnight.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. Highs 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
A cold front should be moving through early February 11 with rain showers that may end as snow showers. Quick shot of cold follows. Next low pressure approaches later February 12 into February 13 based on current timing with a threat of a variety of precipitation, then a trend to drier weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
A long duration unsettled weather event is possible during this period.

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
A disturbance moving by to the south extended its rain shield, mixed with sleet in some areas, across the region overnight but today this is replaced by drier air, and the clouds that start the day will break for some sun, only to be replaced by more clouds by tonight. And then comes the 1-2 punch of low pressure we’ve been talking about for Thursday and Friday. Number 1 tracks northeastward into NY State but redevelops over southern New England during Thursday. The precipitation comes in as snow for a good portion of the area, although it may start as sleet or rain toward the South Coast, and this mix / change line will advance northward so that eventually rain is falling everywhere. There may be a small accumulation of snow especially along and north of I-90 before this, but the bigger deal will be that once rain is falling, the surface temperatures across parts of southern NH and north central MA may stay near to below freezing, making icing an issue. As round 1 tapers off, the new low from it, while not strong, may still serve to shove some of this surface cold a little further south, so that will be something we’ll need to watch for the arrival of round 2’s precipitation shield Thursday night into Friday, which will probably be in the form of rain for most (freezing rain where it’s cold enough) but colder air will be already set to move back in aloft as a transition to sleet/snow is a possibility as the precipitation gets ready to wrap up and exit. The speed of that exit versus the reestablishment of cold will determine how much snow ends up falling. I still lean toward a quick enough precipitation exit that the snow at the end should be minor, but even without much snow falling a temperature drop will result in wet ground becoming icy where it does not dry off from increasing wind later Friday. So that will be something else to keep an eye on. Much colder air will be here Friday night and into the coming weekend. I’ve been keeping an eye on the possibility of a low pressure area impacting the region Sunday, but the last couple updates I have been leaning toward a weaker system passing a little further south, and I still feel this way at this time, but being a few days away we still need to watch it. A shift northward would change my current drier Sunday forecast (at day 5) to a snowier one…
TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow arriving before dawn, may arrive as mix going right to sleet and/or rain South Coast. Lows 25-32. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow to sleet to rain transition progressing north northwestward across the region during the morning and continuing as rain afternoon except for freezing rain southern NH and north central MA. Snow accumulation before changeover of a coating to 1 inch South Coast to I-90, 1-3 inches north of I-90 with highest amounts higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 31-36 central MA through southern NH, 37-42 elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Pockets of freezing rain still possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures ranging from 32-37 north central MA and southern NH to near 50 Cape Cod. Wind SE 5-15 MPH RI and southeastern MA, variable from E to N up to 10 MPH elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Overcast through early afternoon with rain, possibly freezing rain pockets north central to northeastern MA and southern NH, then precipitation may turn to sleet and/or snow from northwest to southeast before ending. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny remainder of day with a risk of passing snow showers. Temperatures remaining in the 30s north central and northeastern MA through southern NH, falling into the 30s elsewhere. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW and increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 15-22. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thin high overcast north with filtered sun, thicker high to middle overcast south with less sun. Highs 32-39. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Quiet weather expected February 10-11 before we enter another period of unsettled weather with several types of precipitation possible. Plenty of time to figure out the evolution of the next system… No extremes of temperature.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
A long duration unsettled weather event is possible during this period.

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Making a few adjustments. I like faster timing of features during this 5-day period. A weak wave of low pressure may bring a little light rain to areas mainly south of I-90 today to early Wednesday, with mild air today giving way to a more seasonably chilly day Wednesday. And then we have a 1-2 punch of low pressure areas Thursday and Friday. Enough cold air will be around for the first one to start as snow Thursday morning, probably pre-dawn, in most of the region except the South Coast which probably starts as rain. Generally minor accumulation is expected from this before enough warm air takes over to change it to rain, followed by a lull, then another slug of rain for early Friday with a second low center moving up over New England. But this system will be hauling and will already be on its way out Friday afternoon. It currently appears that the end of the moisture will beat the arrival of colder air, so I’m not expecting anything more than a passing snow shower as colder air returns, setting up a fair and seasonably chilly day for Saturday, or a nice start to a mid winter weekend. Will that last? See the DAYS 6-10 section after you check out the detailed forecast for the next 5 days…
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible south of I-90. Highs 40-47. Wind
Partly sunny early morning. Cloudy thereafter. Light rain likely in the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers possible, may end of snow showers, favoring areas south of I-90. Clearing afternoon. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow arriving around dawn quickly changing to rain South Coast more slowly changing to sleet than rain further north. General accumulation of a coating to 2 inches, least near the South Coast and most near the New Hampshire Massachusetts border. Highs 38-45 occurring late in the day. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Temperature rising to 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain, possibly ending with brief mix/snow. Sun and passing clouds afternoon. Temperatures falling in the 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
A wave of low pressure brings the risk of snow/mix February 9, but this will be a small area of low pressure so a subtle shift in its track would mean a significant difference in weather here. It could end up further south and largely a miss, but a little early to know for sure. Interlude of drier weather February 10-11 before another low pressure area brings unsettled weather later February 12 through February 13, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Unsettled pattern continues with another risk of precipitation, possibly a longer-duration event, favoring the second half of the period.

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Well we may as well get the nicest day of the week out of the way, right? A warm front will clear the area this morning and High pressure centered way down near the Gulf Coast and Florida extends its influence northward far enough to bring decent weather to our area today, and then things will change. Then comes the parade of lows. The first approaches Tuesday and departs Wednesday as a fairly weak low pressure wave moving over or even just south of the region, but there will be enough mild air in place that this system’s precipitation will be mainly rain. However cold air coming into the region as it departs may flip it to snow with a small accumulation early Wednesday before we get some clearing in. Hot on its heels comes another low from the southwest and this one will start as snow, with some accumulation during the first part of Thursday, before a messy flip to sleet, freezing rain, and rain occurs as warmer air moves in both aloft and at the surface. And behind this comes yet another, stronger low pressure area that will cross the region by the middle of the day on Friday, with this system bringing mainly rain. But we will have to watch for a flip back to snow on the back side of this one as more cold air arrives. Timing is uncertain for that, and being at the end of the 5-day period we have a few days to fine-tune it.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy early to mid morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny early morning. Cloudy thereafter. Light rain likely in the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers possible. Clearing afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow/ice/rain likely. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Mix/rain likely. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain/mix to snow, ending late. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Active pattern continues. Storm threats around February 9 and again late period with snow/mix favored for the first and any type of precipitation possible for the second threat should it occur. Overall temperatures will still average a little above normal but not by that much.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Mid February continues to also look unsettled with the battle of cold north / mild south and a couple low pressure systems likely impacting the region.

10:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Sorry I’m late with today’s update. I was out looking for my shadow. Didn’t find it. And that means…..it’s cloudy. Or at least it was when I was out. Here at WHW home base the clouds have thinned and broken enough to allow a hint of sunshine and a slight shadow of any animals walking about. But jokes and myths aside, nobody really knows when winter weather will end, other than sometime within a few weeks of the end of winter, by the calendar. It will depend on the weather pattern as we go forward, and we’ll be looking at that as always. But this is section is for the next 5 days, so let’s pull in and focus on that. We have an elongated trough moving through at upper levels at this time, and that’s responsible for the cloudiness, but most attempts by the atmosphere to generate any precipitation have failed. It gets one more try tonight as a warm front crosses the region, but that doesn’t look like anything more than spotty mix or a touch of snow. And then comes Monday, the pick of the week, the nicest day, with high pressure in control as it passes to the south, we’ll have a fair amount of sunshine and fairly mild air by early February standards. After that, we’ll be heading in a different direction, first as a frontal boundary sets up shop in the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A couple bouts of insignificant precipitation, likely in the form of rain, can take place during those 2 days, although there will be enough dry air about to make it difficult for the atmosphere to do much. Later Wednesday, a cold front will have pushed through and will bring in just enough cold air so that when a more significant area of low pressure approaches Thursday, we’ll likely end up dealing with some frozen precipitation, although it’s a bit too soon for minute specifics. So here is my best effort at the forecast details for the next 5 days…
TODAY: Clouds give way to partial sun. Highs 36-43. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouds re-thicken and a period of mix/snow may occur with minor, temporary insignificant snow accumulation possible in some areas. Lows 29-36. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Early sun possible then mainly cloudy. Brief light rain possible favoring northern MA / southern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers possible. Clearing afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow/mix arriving. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
The low pressure area that approaches on Thursday will still be around Friday but with warmer air aloft we’ll probably see a mix to rain scenario, but being 6 days away a lot can still change. Updates to come. Current idea is that this system departs leaving us with a dry and seasonably chilly February 8-9 weekend. After this we’ll have to keep an eye out for more unsettled weather toward the end of the period as we’ll be in the same general pattern (battleground between cold to the north, mild to the south). But I’m not sure how quickly the next round of unsettled weather evolves so that part of the forecast may change to a drier outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Mid February looks unsettled with the battle of cold north / mild south still being waged in this area.

9:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Low pressure passes well southeast of New England today, keeping its precipitation shield offshore. A little upper level energy will trigger a few rain and snow showers today through early Sunday, and a warm front will approach later Sunday, passing through the region Sunday night with a risk of a period of snow/mix, but nothing too significant. The pick of the 5-day period will be Monday with sunshine and mild air for February. After that, things start to head downhill as a frontal boundary stretches across the region, separating that mild air from colder air in Canada. It won’t be arctic cold sitting up there, but mid winter cold, and that type of a set-up always makes for a tricky forecast as to where the boundary will set up, where it may move, and timing of any episodes of precipitation, and of course, precipitation-types. We won’t face too much of that Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, but it will be like the opening act to what may be a longer stretch of unsettled weather to come. Anyway the wording for Tuesday and Wednesday will be vague for now, then fine-tuned later.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Risk of a few snow showers. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a snow or rain shower early. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow/mix possible. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief light rain possible favoring northern MA / southern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Risk of rain/mix/snow. Highs 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
We’ll be near a boundary of mild air to the south and cold air to the north February 6-8 which will be unsettled with periods of snow/mix/rain. Fair, slightly colder weather later in the period as high pressure moves in from the northwest.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Back into unsettled weather with the next round of battle between mild south and cold north.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
No big changes for the forecast looking out through 5 days – a nice day to end the month of January, a fairly benign winter month. February starts with a little more activity in the pipeline but nothing too spectacular, storm-wise, as we get grazed by low pressure passing south of the region Saturday bringing a little rain/mix to southeastern areas, and an upper low crosses the area Sunday with perhaps a rain/snow shower as it turns a little colder. A small area of high pressure will bring fair weather Monday before a warm front returns cloudiness and a slight risk of a little light rain to the region Tuesday as milder air returns.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief snow/mix possible late evening. Lows 26-33. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/rain favoring eastern CT/RI/southeastern MA. Highs 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts southern areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower favoring southeastern areas. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a rain or snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief light rain possible favoring northern MA / southern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Mild with rain showers possible February 5. Cooler, still above seasonal averages, but a period of unsettled weather from a couple of low pressure systems possible during the February 6-8 period with a variety of precipitation possible. Fair, colder at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Pattern transition puts southeastern New England in a battle zone with additional unsettled weather and a variety of precipitation possible during this period. Far too soon to try to pick out any details.

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
We end January with one dry and seasonably chilly day and another dry and slightly milder day as high pressure moves across the region then offshore and away. We will start February with a slightly unsettled weekend and by slightly I mean being skirted by the northwestern edge of a broad low pressure area offshore Saturday bringing a little rain and possible mix into southeastern sections, and some upper level energy coming across Sunday with slightly colder air in place, resulting in the possibility of some snow showers in the region. High pressure will bring fair weather Monday and we’ll already be moderating in temperature by then as things are moving right along.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 26-33. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/rain favoring eastern CT/RI/southeastern MA. Highs 35-42. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts southern areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower favoring southeastern areas. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Milder then average throughout the period though some variability in temperature, with warmest likely occurring on February 4. A couple low pressure areas will impact the region, the first in the February 4-5 period with rain showers as mild air dominates, the second sometime in the later February 6 to February 8 period which may have more of a mix involved as slightly colder air will be present by then.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Fair weather to start this period then being near a boundary between mild air in the southeastern US and colder air in eastern Canada means we’ll likely turn unsettled again for the balance of this period, although it’s far too soon to detail what any storminess may produce as far as precipitation type goes.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
High pressure brings fair and a bit more of a chill to the area today and Thursday, certainly not “cold” by January standards, but feeling a little more seasonable than much of the month has. High pressure continues to dominate through Friday, which will be a little milder. This will end the month on a quiet note. As February arrives we’ll immediately be watching a storm system but at the moment I feel the bulk of this will pass offshore to the southeast of New England, not being able to link with energy dropping through the Great Lakes in time to form a more significant storm to impact the region, so going with rain (maybe mix) confined to southeastern portions of the region with little or nothing to the north and northwest as the initial system passes by on Saturday. Slightly colder air arriving with the energy from the Great Lakes passing by on Sunday may produce a few snow showers. There is still just enough uncertainty that we have to watch that initial storm should it end up closer.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early morning clouds depart north to south, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/rain favoring eastern CT/RI/southeastern MA. Highs 35-42. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts southern areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain or snow shower favoring southeastern areas. Lows 30-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a snow shower. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Fair, chilly February 3. Unsettled weather potential February 4-5, and again later February 6 or February 7. Too early to know precipitation type for those threats but temperatures will still likely be running above seasonal averages for the first week of February overall.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Unsettled weather threats very early and again late in the period. Temperatures gradually trend colder with a slow pattern transition underway.

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
A cold front drops north to south through the region today as a pool of chilly air continues to move through aloft, causing lots of clouds. A few flurries may occur mainly this morning. A band of snow showers may impact the southern portion of the South Shore (south of Plymouth MA) across Cape Cod with a minor accumulation of snow this evening and tonight as colder air blows over relatively warmer water. High pressure north of the region will create a chilly northerly air flow for midweek but with dry weather, but as the high slips to the southeast it will moderate a little with continued dry weather on Friday, to end January. As February arrives Saturday we’ll be watching for the arrival of a possible storm system that brings the chance of rain and/or snow. At this point it remains uncertain as to the magnitude of impact from this potential system. Will fine-tune this in the next few days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief passing light snow showers possible through midday. Highs 37-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Snow showers with minor accumulation possible south of Plymouth MA through Cape Cod. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain. Highs 33-40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Surface low pressure that may impact the region the day before should be departing but upper level low pressure crossing New England may cause snow showers February 2. After a break February 3, another weather system brings the risk of precipitation February 4 followed by another at the end of the period. Temperatures will run above seasonal averages.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Potentially 2 more low pressure systems around February 8 and February 10-11. Temperatures should be trending colder at this time.

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 27-31)
A quiet final 5 days of January as high pressure will be in general control. There will be lots of cloudiness around today however to start the week as upper level energy moves through the region, and a weak cold front will pass by later Tuesday bringing somewhat colder air into the region as well, also possibly bringing a touch of snow shower activity to outer Cape Cod. But those would be the only flakes to possibly be seen in the area for the next several days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 37-43. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Possible snow showers outer Cape Cod. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Weather pattern gets a little more active as we start February with storm threats on the February 1-2 weekend and also February 4-5. In each case it’s far too soon for much detail, but the weekend system at least as some risk of having frozen precipitation involved with it.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Another opportunity for storminess around the middle of the period.