6:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)
The storm is here. Much of what was in yesterday’s discussion holds true, and now to try to focus a few things. Slightly faster timeline, wind already increasing pre-dawn and will build to its peak through morning and midday then peak this afternoon through late this evening. Moderate to major coastal flooding starts as the midday high tide cycle approaches, eases only slightly between cycles only to peak again around high tide cycles around midnight tonight and again midday Saturday. The wind fetch will hold some of the water in near the coast keeping the flooding going even during lower tide times. East-facing and north-facing shores are the most vulnerable to major flooding. However depending on the orientation of the lowlands in any particular region, some locations will see standing water flooding from the magnitude of the tide height and the difficulty in draining it out between tides. Other aspects: Wind damage due to powerful gusts. Power outages both due to wind gusts, especially coastal areas, and in over inland higher elevations where any heavy/wet snow accumulates later in the storm. Regarding the snow, always been the wild card and my latest thinking is a slightly faster timing may prevent some of the change-over and accumulation especially regarding southwestern NH and the northern Worcester Hills. Still have some concerns about heavy/wet snow accumulating up to several inches in higher elevations of the southern Worcester Hills to northern RI. I’m not overly concerned at the moment with much in the way of snow elsewhere, but will monitor as timing of the cooling atmosphere and precipitation intensity will determine that snow part of the system. Some locations in the hills of Worcester County actually started as snow in the pre-dawn hours, but it has since warmed enough for rain and the bulk of the precipitation will be rain today, which will lead to areas of street flooding. Beyond the storm’s direct impact, still expecting the blustery conditions to continue right through the weekend, even into Monday, before easing. By Tuesday, we’ll be eyeing the approach of a new storm system, but we’ll talk more about that on the next blog update. Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times. Probable change to snow mid to late afternoon higher elevations southwestern NH and central MA with possible mix nearby to these areas. Moderate to major coastal flooding especially midday on. Areas of street flooding. Areas of wind damage. Temperatures 38-45 through midday falling slowly this afternoon to 34-42 especially interior areas. Wind NE increasing to 20-30 MPH sustained with gusts 40-60 MPH interior locations, and 30-40 MPH sustained with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal areas. Wind gusts will be more frequently in the lower end of the region and less frequently toward the higher end
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain except higher elevation snow southwestern NH through central MA into northern RI with a mix and/or snow change possible for some of the lower elevations prior to a tapering of precipitation from north to south. Potential snow accumulation of 1-3 inches favoring higher elevations with under 1 inch to nothing elsewhere, but a 3-6 maximum accumulation may occur in some of the highest elevations. Still some uncertainty on these amounts with many locations possibly seeing nothing at all in terms of snow. Temperatures steady 33-41. Wind NE to N 20-30 MPH sustained with gusts 40-60 MPH interior locations, and 30-40 MPH sustained with gusts 55-75 MPH coastal areas. Wind gusts will be more frequently in the lower end of the region and less frequently toward the higher end, diminishing slightly overnight. Moderate to major coastal flooding and additional wind damage.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain/snow showers possible. Highs 37-44. Wind N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 30-37. Wind N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of a snow shower early. Better chance of snow showers at night. Highs 38-45. Wind N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)
Large scale blocking pattern remains in place and for us here in southeastern New England the next storm threat exists March 7-8 with rain/mix/snow possible. Improving weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)
Another storm threat early in this period as the overall pattern remains the same, then improving weather would again follow this.

2:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)
A cold front passed through the region overnight with a few light rain showers. This was not a sharp boundary with lots of cold air behind it so today will still be a mild day as clouds increase ahead of the developing major storm system set to impact the region from later tonight through Friday, with lingering effects into the weekend. There has been uncertainty in the details of the storm track, as in how close it will be to the New England South Coast as it does a loop then heads off to the southeast in response to a rapidly developing blocking high pressure area over Greenland to eastern Canada. The large scale has been a fairly easy forecast but its the minute details that result in forecast difficulties. What I do know is that the just-beyond-full-moon high tide cycles midday Friday, late Friday night, and midday Saturday are going to result in moderate to major flooding on east-facing and north-facing coasts, and minor to moderate flooding elsewhere. Property damage is likely as a result of the moderate to major flooding. Strong east to northeast winds are also a certainty, of course strongest in coastal areas and higher elevations as is typical. This may result in damage as well. A large percentage of the storm’s precipitation will likely be in the form of rain due to a marginal atmosphere I expect to be just warm enough to keep it mainly rain. Some flooding will result as a few bands of heavy rain may move over the same areas for several hours. The wildcard is snowfall. With the atmosphere marginal, the combination of colder air aloft and heavy precipitation can change rain to wet snow, and this can occur in a patchy fashion and not a more uniform rain/snow line. This is a very difficult aspect of the storm to forecast as just differences of a couple degrees can mean the difference between no snow, a few inches of snow, and a much larger snowfall accumulation. Going to play the lower side on the snow for now, keeping in mind that this can change very rapidly and updates will come if necessary. The forecast will reflect a mix/change from late Friday afternoon into Friday night before the storm pulls its heaviest precipitation southward and out of the region. The odds favor accumulation in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH, and also possibly over higher elevations of northern RI and nearby MA. Will keep the forecast numbers conservative for these areas at this point and allow for a minor accumulation at the end of the storm elsewhere. By the weekend and Monday, this storm will have evolved into a very large circulation as it heads southeastward toward Bermuda, and southeastern New England will remain under the influence of it with some lingering coastal flooding, gusty wind, and a few rain/snow showers, especially Saturday, diminishing thereafter. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 52-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind N to NE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Rain, heavy at times, may mix with or turn to snow higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH late in the day. Temperatures steady 38-45 much of day then falling slowly late. Wind E 15-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH interior, 25-40 MPH with gusts 50-70 MPH coast, strongest Cape Cod. Coastal flooding especially near high tide times. Road flooding possible due to heavy rain. Probable wind damage and scattered power outages.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Mix/snow higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH, rain may end as mix/snow elsewhere. Early-call accumulation 1-4 inches higher elevations central MA and southwestern NH and possibly northern RI and nearby MA, less than 1 inch elsewhere. Precipitation tapering off north to south. Lows 32-39. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with higher gusts. Moderate to major coastal flooding around high tide times.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain/snow showers. Highs 38-45. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Coastal flooding around high tide times, especially north-facing shores.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)
Blocking pattern continues. Next storm threat favoring late March 6 to early March 9 and may include some snow/mix.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)
Blocking pattern continues. One more storm threat possible favoring the middle of this period.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
High pressure slips off to the east of New England today and a cold front approaches from the north. It will still be quite a nice day to end the month of February. Then it’s time for the proverbial March Lion as we continue to watch the evolution of a blocking pattern and a major storm system. The adjustment today is for a slightly more northward journey of the developing low pressure system which will intensify fairly rapidly and do a loop just south of New England. The main concern continues to be a strong onshore wind flow and coastal flooding. Will get far more detailed on tomorrow’s blog than today, still keeping it on a broadly described scale for this update. The time frame is generally the same although a further south evolution of the storm would have meant a quicker exit of the precipitation portion, so delaying that a bit with a farther north position likely being realized. Still not overly worried about snow as it will be a fairly mild atmosphere, but leaving the opportunity for some mix/change to snow over interior higher elevations before the system pulls out as it will be pulling colder air into itself. I don’t think we’ll see quite the right set-up for a dynamic cooling event to create snow over much of the region. This may be confined to the hills/mountains of western and southwestern New England, outside of my general WHW forecast area. Still looking for a windy/chilly weekend which may start with rain/mix/snow if the low’s loop is broad enough, otherwise it turns out mostly dry during the weekend.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54 South Coast, 55-61 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-41. Wind SW 5-10 MPH shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or mixed rain/snow showers during the day. Rain arriving southwest to northeast at night. Highs 43-50 then slightly. Wind light W shifting to N, then NE to E at night increasing to 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Stormy with rain, probably heavy at times. Rain may mix with or turn to snow interior higher elevations at night. Strong east wind and coastal flooding likely. Temperatures steady 38-45.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy wit a chance of rain/mix/snow early, then variably cloudy with a passing rain/snow shower possible. Temperatures generally steady upper 30s to lower 40s. Windy.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. Dry March 5 and still breezy/cool. The next window of opportunity for storminess is from later March 6 to early March 9. This system may have more cold air to work with therefore presents a better chance of mix/snow over a larger portion of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)
The same pattern remains in place. Yet another storm threat favoring the middle of the period.

7:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
Some very nice late February weather today into Wednesday as high pressure dominates today then retreats to the east Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the north. Continuing to watch the coming evolution of a blocking pattern and the first storm threat during this pattern. As is typically the case, there remains some varied solutions on the different computer guidance, but the overall idea remains the same for now. The greatest early concern is the coastal flooding threat due to a long fetch of onshore wind. Looking for largely a rain event arriving late Thursday or Thursday night that may end as snow for at least parts of the region Friday before the storm’s precipitation gets pushed to the south. The precipitation type will depend on the exact temperature profile in the atmosphere which will be marginal, as well as the intensity of the precipitation. If the storm is too far to the south you lack heavier precipitation and colder air aloft to be dragged toward the surface. So it will be a fine line. Looking for the system to be far enough south by Saturday that we are largely dry here with just continued gusty wind and a possible rain/snow shower.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light W to SW.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54 South Coast, 55-61 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-41. Wind SW 5-10 MPH shifting to N.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or mixed rain/snow showers during the day. Rain arriving southwest to northeast at night. Highs 40-47. Wind NE to E increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain likely, possibly ending a mix/snow, then breaking clouds northern and western areas. Temperatures cool 40s to 30s. Windy.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain/snow shower. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. Breezy but mainly dry weather with low pressure far offshore and high pressure to the north March 4-5. Next low pressure system approaches March 6 and evolves into a rain and/or snow producer March 7-8. This system may have colder air to work with so something to watch closely.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)
The same pattern remains in place. Storm system departs to start the period then another one threatens later in the period, favoring March 12-13.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Drying trend today as high pressure approaches from the west so a fairly cloudy and foggy start for many will end up much brighter. High pressure moves by the region Tuesday with fair weather, continuing through Wednesday as high pressure slips off to the east. The much-talked-about storm system approaches from the west and impacts the region late Thursday into Friday as blocking high pressure develops to the north. Still leaning toward a slightly further south track to the low center but it will be a broad system so still expecting its rain shield to get in, and may end as mix/snow for parts of the region during Friday due to marginally cold air. The biggest concern will still likely be coastal flooding due to a moderate to strong onshore flow. Forecast details…
TODAY: Fog and clouds to start, then dissipating fog and increasing sun. Highs 48-55. Wind NW increasing to 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-33. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light W to Sw.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-52 South Coast, 53-59 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day or night. Increasing wind. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Overcast with rain likely, possibly ending a mix/snow, then breaking clouds. Temperatures cool 40s to 30s. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. The first system should sink far to the south leaving a gusty northeast to north wind and only a few rain/snow showers on the March 3-4 weekend with more tranquil weather by March 5. The next storm system threatens the region March 6-7.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)
The same pattern remains in place with a storm system nearby to start the period, a break, then another storm system possibly to watch later in the period.

10:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
Low pressure is moving through the region today now producing mainly rain with any sleet mix confined to north central MA and southern NH as of 10AM with snow now generally north of Concord NH. This system will continue to make things wet and chilly for the rest of the day. It exits tonight and then we are set up for 3 nice days to end the month as high pressure approaches from the west Monday, passes by the region Tuesday, then moves away Wednesday as a front approaches form the north and low pressure develops in the Ohio Valley. This low pressure area, along with a high pressure behind the front to the north, are the surface reflections of a new weather pattern that will be underway just as we flip the calendar to March. This pattern, as previously discussed, will be a blocking pattern with upper level high pressure centered over Greenland and far eastern Canada and the forcing of low pressure areas southeastward to mainly south of New England. The first of these will be approaching on Thursday when we’ll begin to feel its impact of onshore wind and eventually rain. Forecast details…
THIS AFTERNOON: Overcast with rain and areas of fog, some sleet mixed in early north central MA and southern NH. Highs 35-42. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, strongest along the coast.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with areas of fog. Rain ending early. Patchy drizzle until late evening. Areas of black ice possible overnight. Lows 30-35. Wind NE becoming variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-33. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day or night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)
The blocking weather pattern will be in control. The first storm system will likely peak in impact on March 2 with wind/rain, though this may be confined to southern areas with drier weather hanging on to the north. Will have to watch to see if enough cold air gets involved for any mix/snow but early thought is this would be confined to higher elevations. Expecting the blocking to be strong enough to shunt the storm southward later March 2 through the weekend of March 3-4. This would leave the region drier with just a risk of a few rain/snow showers. A moderate to strong east to northeast wind is expected March 2 shifting more to the north into the weekend and this will result in coastal flooding issues, especially March 2, due to the combination of long fetch of onshore wind and astronomical high tides. A break between systems March 5 but the next one may be already impacting the region with a precipitation threat by March 6.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)
The same pattern remains in place with a storm likely in the vicinity for the first couple days of the period then a shift toward fair weather.

10:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
The final 5 days of February will see the end of a string of progressive low pressure systems as the final one moves through on Sunday. It will not be a major storm but will present a complex precipitation pattern as we have cold air being replaced by milder air both at the surface and aloft, at varying times – not an atypical set-up for this time of year by any stretch. Will detail it below. Behind this system will come 3 tranquil days to end the month as high pressure approaches from the west Monday, moves overhead Tuesday, then drifts off to the east Wednesday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Mid to late afternoon light rain possible mainly South Coast. Highs 50-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a brief period of very light rain possible along the South Coast. Cloudy overnight with a slight chance of light snow / sleet southern NH and northern MA and a slight chance of sleet / rain southern MA through RI and eastern CT. Lows 30-38. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast. Snow/sleet southern NH and northern MA transitioning to mostly sleet then rain by afternoon with pockets of freezing rain possible in elevated valleys of north central MA and southwestern NH, and snow/sleet accumulation of a coating to 1 1/2 inch before rain. Rain/sleet southern MA / RI / CT quickly transitioning to rain. Highs 32-38 southern NH and northern MA with coldest in elevated valleys, 38-45 southern MA / RI / CT.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with areas of fog and any rain ending early. Clearing overnight. Areas of black ice. Lows 28-35. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)
March will begin with the evolution of a blocking pattern as high pressure builds in Greenland and eastern Canada and forces low pressure to its south from New England and the Mid Atlantic States into the western Atlantic. For southern New England, the evolution should result in a storm of mainly rain to start transitioning to mix/snow as it exits, this taking place during the March 1-2 time frame. After this a very broad low pressure system should result, centered well offshore, but close enough that this area is in its circulation and marginally involved in its unsettled weather during the remainder of the period, though enough dry air will be in place during this time for more “dry” than “not dry”, assuming it evolves as expected. Will continue to monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)
The same general pattern is expected, blocking, with another system doing something somewhat similar to the first one, during this period. Too soon for any details.

9:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
As we head into the final days of February we will transition from an active pattern with low pressure systems having just departed with yesterday’s rain/sleet/snow to 2 more coming with rain and some mix later today and again Sunday to a quieter pattern early next week as the atmosphere gets ready for a larger scale change… No big changes regarding the upcoming systems from yesterday’s discussion. Will watch the cold air for possible snow/sleet in some interior locations for both of these, but neither will turn out as widespread frozen precipitation situations. At the moment I only think freezing rain could be briefly an issue in some of the valley locations of far north central MA and southwestern NH tonight and again early Sunday, but this should be very limited. Forecast details…
TODAY: Some morning sun then clouding over. Late-day rain except possibly sleet/snow parts of central and northeastern MA to southern NH but no accumulation. Highs 37-44. Wind light NE to SE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain except a couple areas of freezing rain in valleys north central MA to southwestern NH, tapering off late evening. Lows 30-37. Wind light SE to S.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind light SW to NW.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain except possible mix north central MA to southern NH to start. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s, mildest South Coast.
MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
February ends quietly with fair weather on its last day. The early days of March see a change in the large scale pattern as a block develops in the atmosphere, but this block may be strong enough so that after an initial rain/mix/snow event on March 1 a larger storm will evolve well offshore to the southeast of New England for a couple days, keeping the region dry or with just a few rain/snow showers, breezy conditions, and rough surf along the coast, and then we’ll have to monitor for a backing-up of this system late in the period for more direct impact. These patterns can evolve in a complex manner so confidence is not high at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)
The pattern that evolves to start the month should continue during this period bringing cool but not super cold weather and a fairly high risk of unsettled weather.

9:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
The front is to the south now, the spring/summer preview is over, and we return to weather a little more seasonable, and part of that includes a period of precipitation today as a wave of low pressure slides along the front just to the south. This will start out as rain for many, possibly sleet/snow in southern NH and far northern MA, and then the transition will be to bring the sleet/snow area further south, but by the time it would reach the South Coast region the precipitation should be set to move out and only a rain/sleet mix would occur there. Elsewhere, where sleet/snow occurs for a longer time, there will probably be a minor accumulation. This is gone tonight, and as the boundary sits to the south the next disturbance will come along and bring another round of precipitation late Friday and Friday night. It should be cold enough to support a little sleet/snow favoring central MA and southern NH followed by a transition to rain, with a mix to rain or just rain elsewhere, although we’ll have to keep an eye on surface temperatures over the interior typical cold spots for the possibility of freezing rain. A larger area of low pressure follows this into southeastern Canada but its sweeping occluded front will spawn a new low to track just south of or over the region Sunday and Sunday night, and this will bring yet another round of precipitation that may be similar to the one late Friday, again watching similar areas for some snow/sleet/freezing rain, though rain should be dominant in most of the region. This one-two-three unsettled episode then comes to an end as high pressure moves in during Monday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Precipitation develops west to east midday and early afternoon as snow/sleet/rain north and rain south, then transitions to sleet then snow southward but only mixing with sleet South Coast. Temperatures fall slowly through the 30s. Wind light NE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with snow except rain/sleet South Coast region, ending early, with accumulation of a coating to 1 inch away from the South Coast except possibly up to 2 inches in higher elevations of central MA and southern NH. Mostly cloudy overnight. Untreated surfaces will be icy. Lows 25-32. Wind light NE to N.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain except possibly sleet/snow parts of central and northeastern MA to southern NH but no significant accumulation. Highs 35-42. Wind light NE to SE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain except areas of freezing rain, sleet, snow possible central and northeastern MA to southern NH, tapering off late evening. Lows 30-37. Wind light SE to S.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind light SW to NW.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain except possible mix north central MA to southern NH. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s, mildest South Coast.
MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
A weakening low pressure area may bring a few clouds February 27 but no precipitation expected at this time. High pressure dominates with fair weather February 28. Low pressure brings the chance of rain/mix/snow March 1 before a drying but windy/colder trend takes over March 2-3.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)
Large scale pattern will feature a block with high pressure in eastern Canada to Greenland and low pressure near the US East Coast with near to below normal temperatures and episodes of unsettled weather here, which may include some frozen precipitation.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will deliver one more very warm day for much of the region with several records likely falling. There was a boundary of cooler air that moved down the coast from northern New England into northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as far southwest as parts of Metro Boston overnight but it should be pushed back the other way today with a generally southwest flow taking over. This flow will keep the South Coast and Cape Cod cooler, as would be expected. But a cold front is on the way and will sweep through the region from northwest to southeast this evening, producing some rain showers, and delivering colder air. As this cold air arrives, the front will slow to a stop just south of New England and a wave of low pressure will bring an area of precipitation to the region Thursday midday and afternoon, which will be in the form of snow and sleet for parts of the region, along with some minor accumulation. This will be the beginning of a stretch of unsettled weather, with additional waves of low pressure following later Friday and again Saturday night into Sunday. These may produce some frozen or freezing precipitation mainly over interior areas, but otherwise will be largely rain producers. Forecast details…
TODAY: Low clouds and fog possible northeastern coastal MA and Seacoast NH early, and may hang along the South Coast of MA/RI/CT all day. Otherwise, partly sunny. Highs 50-59 immediate South Coast, 60-74 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Lows 35-42. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late morning and afternoon rain southern MA, RI, CT may mix with sleet/snow before ending. Late morning and afternoon sleet/snow central MA to southern NH with a coating to 1 inch possible, perhaps over 1 inch in parts of southern NH. Temperatures steady 35-42 morning, falling to 30-35 afternoon. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Chance of rain which may start as snow/ice at night interior MA/NH. Highs 37-43. Wind light NE to E.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Chance of rain/mix/snow night. Temperatures steady upper 30s to lower 40s then falling slightly.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
A colder trend the last few days of the month with what looks like a minor disturbance passing through with rain/snow showers late February 27. As March gets underway briefly milder with rain/mix March 1 then clearing and colder March 2. Timing uncertain so confidence is low.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)
Expecting a blocking pattern with high pressure across eastern Canada and low pressure between the Mid Atlantic and western Atlantic. This pattern will feature generally near to below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather, however the main storminess may be to the south and southeast of New England in this set-up.

2:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
Into the wedge of warmth we go for 2 days before a cold front slices through the region and puts an end to the spring preview late Wednesday. Cloudiness will prevent most areas from reaching maximum potential temperatures today, though the warmest will occur north and west of Boston, primarily north of I-90 and west of I-95, centered in the Merrimack Valley and southern NH. Temperatures come up a few notches Wednesday just ahead of the cold front, with again cloudiness and ocean-modified air keeping the South Coast and adjacent areas cooler while the warmest air is over the same areas it was today. A few showers may accompany the cold front Wednesday evening, and this front will then come to a halt just south of New England Thursday, allowing a small ripple of low pressure to move along it. Cold air will be draining in all the while and a period of precipitation, possibly in the form of snow/sleet north and rain south, is expected Thursday. This boundary is going to sit to the south with southern New England on the cooler side of it right into the coming weekend too and another round of precipitation, mainly rain that may start as some snow/ice interior, is expected Friday night and early Saturday and another area of most likely rain/mix approaching later Saturday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 47-55 South Coast, 56-64 elsewhere, mildest north central to interior northeastern MA and adjacent southern NH. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy north. Mostly cloudy south. Lows 45-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny north. Mostly cloudy south. Highs 47-56 South Coast, 57-70 elsewhere, warmest valley areas northwest of Boston. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Lows 35-42. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain southern MA, RI, CT. Chance of mix/snow central MA to southern NH. Temperatures steady 35-42 morning, falling to 30-35 afternoon. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Chance of rain which may start as snow/ice at night. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Chance of rain/mix/snow night. Temperatures stead upper 30s to lower 40s then falling slightly.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25-MARCH 1)
A broad low pressure area brings a chance of rain/ice/snow February 25. Will watch the period February 26-28 for an additional disturbance moving through from northwest to east that may produce additional rain/mix/snow. Dry weather follows. Temperatures trend colder.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
Expecting a blocking pattern with high pressure across eastern Canada and low pressure between the Mid Atlantic and western Atlantic. This pattern will feature generally near to below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather, however the main storminess may be to the south and southeast of New England in this set-up.

2:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
A warm front approaches today and passes tonight, opening the door to very mild weather Tuesday through the daylight hours of Wednesday. A cold front will push through the region from northwest to southeast Wednesday night and a cooler high pressure area will push toward the region from the north Thursday, although the front may hang up just south of the region with a wave of low pressure moving along it, possibly close enough to delay clearing. This frontal boundary will start moving back to the north a little bit on Friday and a wave of low pressure will approach from the west with a return to unsettled weather possible by late in the day or at night. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light rain mainly west and north of Boston late day. Highs 43-50. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain evening. Temperatures steady 43-50 then rising slightly overnight. Wind light S to SW.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-55 South Coast, 56-64 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers evening or night. Highs 47-56 South Coast, 57-70 elsewhere, warmest valley areas northwest of Boston. Much cooler at night. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to NW at night.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a possible period of rain/mix then clearing late. Temperatures fall through 40s.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Chance of rain which may start as snow/ice at night. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)
Unsettled weather possible during the February 24-25 weekend with a nearby boundary and areas of low pressure moving along it. Colder air from the north will probably win out with some threat of snow/ice/rain during this time. Another system may bring some light precipitation about February 27 but uncertain as this system may get pulled apart and end up much weaker or south of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)
The early March pattern should be unsettled and cooler than normal as a blocking pattern sets up. Will eye the possibility of a couple storm systems, especially one later in the period.

11:22AM

STORM SUMMARY
I would love to say the forecast for the storm worked out well, and I suppose it did, in general. But there was a big miss, and that was north central MA and southern NH which got in on the heaviest of the snow that I actually thought would have fallen further south. The expansion of the precipitation area was greater than I expected, and some hard-to-see banding took place in those areas mentioned above. Looking back, a forecast of 4-8 inches would have been better for a large portion of the region, with 1-4 inches for the South Coast region with mixing/rain involved. All in all, not too bad, but I don’t like to dwell on my performance other than learning from the mistakes, and I have taken some notes for future reference in this regard.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
As promised, the snow that did fall will not be hanging around and is already in the process of melting. Not that it’s super warm today, only into the 40s, but that higher February sun angle does a number on the snow this time of year that hasn’t had a chance to go through a melt/freeze process. And we’re only going to see a little bit of that as we drop below freezing tonight, but tomorrow, despite losing the sunshine to an approaching warm front which eventually brings some rain, the temperature will be climbing far above freezing accelerating and nearly completing the melting process. And whatever should survive tomorrow will certainly be eradicated Tuesday as we see an even bigger temperature spike, which will peak on Wednesday as a high pressure ridge builds along the East Coast and a cold front hangs back to the north. This front will arrive by early Thursday and high pressure behind it will send a much cooler air mass into the region, ending the spring preview. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-23 interior, 24-29 coast. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind light SE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a period of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind light S.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52 immediate South Coast ranging to 60-67 interior areas with a small 52-60 area in between. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the lower 40s to around 50. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s immediate South Coast, middle 50s to lower 60s just away from the coast, middle 60s to lower 70s interior.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a period of rain morning-midday which may end as a mix. Temperatures fall through 50s and 40s to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)
Hard to time precipitation threats in what will be an active pattern but looking at the most likely days for them being during the February 24-25 weekend, and February 27. The first may start with freezing or frozen precipitation but will likely end up mainly rain. The second can be any type of precipitation and confidence is too low to be sure this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28-MARCH 4)
Evolution of the pattern is to below normal temperatures and will have to watch for some additional storminess. Leaning toward a blocking pattern.

1:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
High pressure dominates today with seasonably cold but dry weather, but it slides offshore and a wave of low pressure moves east northeastward very rapidly along the boundary of warm and cold air to the south of New England bringing a light to moderate snowfall tonight, which will exit by Sunday morning. Another high pressure area moves in Sunday returning sunshine to the region. This high is not of very cold origin and therefore it will be fairly mild and much of the snow that falls during Saturday night will melt during Sunday. A warm front will approach Monday with a late-day or nighttime rain risk, and then anomalous warmth will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds over the southeastern US and a southwesterly air flow takes over. We’ll have to watch a cold front to the north during Wednesday as this will mark the end of that significant warm-up, but it remains to be seen if it will arrive during or after Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 30-37. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast mid to late evening, peaks overnight, and tapers off southwest to northeast around dawn, possibly mixing with or briefly changing to rain immediate South Coast, Cape Cod and Islands. Snow accumulation of 3-6 inches expected in most areas, except 1-3 inches in southwestern NH and nearby north central MA, and 1-3 inches of wetter snow Cape Cod and Islands. A couple small areas of bands of 6 or 7 inches are possible favoring interior southeastern MA, possibly Cape Ann MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Lows 24-31 but to the middle 30s Cape Cod overnight. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Clouds Cape Cod early otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH early shifting to W and diminishing to around 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Highs 40-47. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the 50s south-facing shores to 60s elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs from the middle 50s south-facing shores to 60s to near 70 interior. May turn sharply cooler north to south late day or evening.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)
May start unsettled then dry out as it cools February 22. Will have to watch the February 23-26 period for 1 or 2 threats of unsettled weather that may include frozen or freezing precipitation for parts of the region. This will be caused by a pattern that remains warm in the US Southeast but much colder in Canada placing New England in the battle zone between the two.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27-MARCH 3)
Similar pattern, near a boundary with the cooler to colder side probably winning out, and episodes of unsettled weather which may include some frozen precipitation. During this time we will be watching the large scale pattern for a possible transition to a blocking set-up.

9:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
2 cold fronts will push through the region, one this morning, and one this evening. Areas of rain showers will be around ahead of and along the first front, and a rain or snow shower may accompany the second one in a few locations. The second front will mark the arrival of modified arctic air which will become established through Saturday, setting the stage for a winter precipitation event Saturday night as a developing wave of low pressure exits the northern Mid Atlantic and passes just south of New England. This will be a quick event with light to borderline moderate snowfall amounts and the chance of some rain near the South Coast, and will be out of here by early Sunday. A warm-up will follow this as a ridge of high pressure builds across the southeastern US through early next week. A surface warm front has to come through here later Monday and this may be accompanied by cloudiness and some rainfall, but by Tuesday we should see a preview of spring.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers and areas of fog morning. Isolated late-day rain showers except rain or snow showers southern NH and far northern MA. Highs 45-52 in the morning, cooling through the 40s afternoon. Wind W 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives southwest to northeast late evening, peaks overnight, and tapers off southwest to northeast around dawn, except mixing with or changing to rain along the immediate South Coast. Snow accumulation of 2-5 inches expected in most areas, except 1-3 inches in southwestern NH and nearby north central MA, and 1-2 inches of wetter snow MA South Shore through South Coast and less than 1 inch Nantucket. Lows 24-31 but rising to 32-38 South Shore of MA and South Coast. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of lingering snow except mix/rain South Coast early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 38-45. Wind N 10-20 MPH early shifting to W and diminishing to around 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Upper air pattern supports warmth but surface pattern may send a cold front southward to cut off what would otherwise by an anomalously warm day February 21. Will keep an eye on it. Episodes of unsettled weather with a cooler to colder trend thereafter. Cannot rule out some mix/snow.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26-MARCH 2)
Similar pattern, near a boundary with the cooler to colder side probably winning out, and episodes of unsettled weather which may include some frozen precipitation.