8:01PM

This is just a quick update on how I think the storm Sunday and Monday will play out…

Some light snow/freezing drizzle Sunday morning over the NH Seacoast down to the eastern MA coast including Boston and its immediate suburbs will be a result of an onshore wind and not directly related to the coming storm.

The precipitation from the storm overspreads southern New England from west to east during the morning and midday, reaching the Boston area by 1PM.

A rain/snow line should be somewhere in southeastern MA and may move north toward Boston for a while, but by late in the day this line will start heading back to the southeast as the colder air wins out. It may take most of the night to make it all the way across the South Coast and Cape Cod so a good portion of the storm there may be in the form of rain. Elsewhere, snow will take over and be dominant.

The wildcard portion of this storm is how much back-lash snow occurs on Monday as the low center gets into the ocean water just to the east of New England and very rapidly intensifies. Right now the greatest chance of moderate to heavy snow lingering through the morning will be across southern NH and northeastern to east central MA, extending down through the South Shore and Cape Cod.

Blizzard conditions are possible along the coast during Monday morning. Blizzard conditions are defined by 3 or more consecutive hours of 1/4 mile or lower visibility caused by falling and/or blowing snow with winds sustained or frequently gusting over 35 MPH.

Ok, so about those snow amounts? This is tricky, but here’s my best guess, and highly depended on both a rain/snow line to the southeast and the amount of back-lash early Monday…

1-3 inches outer Cape Cod & Nantucket at the end, 3-6 inches remainder of the South Coast of New England, 6-10 inches interior southern MA to northern RI northward to about the Mass Pike including Boston, 10-15 inches over central and northern MA into southwestern NH, and 15-18 inches due to extra back-lash snow over northeastern MA and southeastern NH on Monday.

Please understand that these snow amounts are still subject to change and I will update this when needed!

The remainder of this post is from earlier today but has been edited slightly.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-30 north to south. Wind light variable becoming NE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Spotty very light snow or freezing drizzle near the MA/NH East Coast in the morning. Snow develops west to east midday and afternoon except mix/rain southeastern MA and southern RI. Highs 25-40 north to south. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain/snow line moves southeastward, crossing Cape Cod lastly overnight. Snow elsewhere. Temperatures 20s north, 30s south, but falling slowly. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of snow favoring eastern areas with heaviest most likely northeastern MA and southeastern NH. See above for accumulations. Temperatures falling to 20s. Wind NE to N 25-35 MPH gusts above 50 MPH interior and above 60 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 25-35.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
Snow showers possible to start the period then fair and cold weather dominating, moderating late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Pattern transition underway here but there may be another storm threat during this.

10:56AM

This will be the first of 2 blog entries between today and later tonight to better update for the evolving storm situation for Sunday and early Monday.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
The latest “event” is about done here as a general 1 to 3 inch snowfall occurred overnight and early this morning. Only some spotty very light snow remains, almost like snow-drizzle, or “snizzle” as it has been often termed, over eastern MA and southeastern NH as this is really a warm front trying to press through. It will do that during the day and we will see some breaks in the clouds and sun, but the greatest amount of this will be to the southwest and south of Boston. But the break will be short-lived. The next system, a stronger low, will approach from the west on Sunday. We do know that this system will intensify rapidly once it reaches the ocean Sunday night and Monday, and the critical part of the forecast, in terms of where a rain/snow line is and how much snow falls, is the track, orientation, and rate of deepening of this system. This will come down to almost an hour-by-hour thing as we go along, but this forecast will reflect that I currently feel a very sharp line will exist between not much snow and much more snow, somewhere in the I-95 belt. But again this is not a certainty and there is plenty of room for adjustment. Please keep that in mind. One thing we do know with a certainty is that powerful winds are going to occur especially Monday as the deepening storm starts to pull away via the Gulf of Maine to the waters south of Nova Scotia. Beyond this, look for a fair and cold Valentine’s Day Tuesday, and the next unsettled weather threat quickly arriving by Wednesday. This system will likely bring a threat of snow or snow showers and I am far from knowing its exact evolution. Revisiting this next update and again tomorrow.
TODAY: Clouds dominate. Partial sun develops Boston area south and southwest. Spotty very light snow north of Boston to southeastern NH through midday. Highs 28-35 north, 35-42 south. Wind light variable, mainly SE in northern areas and SW in southern areas.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 20-30 north to south. Wind light variable becoming NE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Spotty very light snow or freezing drizzle near the MA/NH East Coast in the morning. Snow develops west to east midday and afternoon except mix/rain South Coast. Highs 30-40 north to south. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain/mix southeastern MA and southern RI, mix/snow elsewhere – details to be worked out. Steady or slightly rising temperatures. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts especially coast.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of snow favoring eastern areas with heaviest most likely northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Significant snow accumulation for this event possible many areas but especially just north and west of Boston extending westward and northward from there. Will add numbers to prediction on next update. Temperatures falling to 20s. Wind NE to N 25-35 MPH gusts above 40 MPH interior and above 50 MPH coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 25-35.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 10-20. Highs 20-30.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
Snow showers possible to start the period then fair and cold weather dominating, moderating late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Pattern transition underway here but there may be another storm threat during this.

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Frigid Friday morning in the arctic air mass behind the winter storm. But the fast moving pattern continues and next we’re talking about a minor snowfall from a much smaller low pressure system early Saturday. A stronger system on its heals arrives later Sunday and departs Monday and this one will be a little more interesting, pending its evolution, which will determine its impact in terms of precipitation type and location. Will fine-tune this starting later today and early in the weekend. Cold air follows that system either way.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow toward dawn. Lows 10-18. Wind W to S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow of 1-3 inches except under 1 inch South Coast with snow/rain mix. Partial clearing afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Wind light SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow/mix late in the day or at night. Highs 35-42. Wind light SE.
MONDAY: Rain/mix/snow possible early. Windy. Temperatures mainly 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Cold pattern continues with another storm threat early in the period, coldest weather mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)
cold patter eases, milder and drier trend.

2:51AM

DAY 1 (TODAY’S STORM)
I’ve decided to isolate “day 1” into its own section for the purposes of this weather event. You may remember recent reminders of poor computer model performance beyond 3 days and a weather pattern that can produce a renegade big snow event with not a lot of warning. Well, here it is. This storm is coming today as low pressure tracks east northeast off the northern Mid Atlantic Coast and tracks just south of New England while intensifying rapidly, during which time it will gather Atlantic moisture and throw it into much colder air, which follows a Wednesday that started very icy but ended up feeling like spring. Classic changeable New England weather – it’s really nothing new. So let’s run through a break down of the storm and just incorporate today’s and tonight’s detailed forecast into this…
START: Should be underway already by dawn in western and central MA to southwestern NH, and much of CT, then rapidly advance eastward so that Boston and Providence are into the snow by 8AM and areas to the southeast of there are underway shortly thereafter.
PRECIPITATION TYPE: May start as rain in far southeastern MA, especially cape Cod and the Islands, and perhaps far southern RI, but here it will change to snow and be a wet to average consistency snow, staying wettest on Nantucket, which may take until early afternoon to go to snow. Elsewhere, it’s all snow, of average consistency near the South Shore for a while before becoming lower water content later, and a dry/fluffy snow for the remainder of the region.
PEAK TIME: 9AM-2PM CT / central MA / southwestern NH, 10AM-4PM RI / eastern MA / southeastern NH. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour will be common during the peak time, especially under bands of heavier snow that set up. It’s always difficult to say where these will be more than a few hours in advance, and even closer to the occurrence, so will monitor and update.
COASTAL FRONT: This feature is a boundary, like a localized front, that marks the edge of very cold air over inland areas and less cold air from the ocean. In this case, northeast winds will be blowing in the region to the east of the boundary, while to the west the are blowing from the north in the much colder air. This creates an area of convergence of air and results in rising air which then results in a band of heavier precipitation. The most likely spot for this to set up is from Boston to just inland of the South Shore.
THUNDERSNOW: Yes, lightning and thunder are possible with the heavier snow bands.
END TIME: Connecticut Valley and Hartford area about 5PM, Worcester MA north and south by 7PM, Boston area north and south by 9PM, and final flakes exiting Cape Cod by 11PM or midnight.
SNOW ACCUMULATION: Widespread 10-15 inches for most locations. Exceptions, under 10 inches in portions of southwestern NH to north central MA and in a few valley areas and probably over Nantucket due to a wetter snow. Pockets of greater than 15 inches are very possible especially associated with heavier precipitation banding which is common with rapidly-intensifying storm systems.
TEMPERATURE: Starting out in the 30s over far southeastern MA and southern RI but falling to the upper 20s here by late-day, mainly from the middle and lower 20s to upper 10s elsewhere. There may also be a sharp contrast in temperature from near 30 just east of the coastal front to near 20 just west of it. By tonight, all areas fall to overnight lows of 5-13.
WIND: NE increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts as high as 45-55 MPH over southeastern MA, N increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 35-45 MPH elsewhere.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS: This is most likely to occur in southeastern MA where the winds are strongest for the longest period of time, at least in terms of being an official blizzard by definition (3 or more consecutive hours of greatly-reduced visibility caused by sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater), but it’s important to note that gusty winds blowing the falling and already fallen drier/fluffy snow around in areas further to the north and west will create white-out conditions at times, even if the official criteria for a blizzard are not met.
POST-STORM: The sky will clear from west to east as temperatures fall to lows of 8-16 with NW wind diminishing slightly but remaining gusty.

DAYS 2-5 (FEBRUARY 10-13)
A shot of very cold air Friday will be followed by a small low pressure system coming from Canada via the Great Lakes bringing a risk of snow during the morning hours of Saturday. The next system will be on its heels and bring a chance of snow/rain by late Sunday to early Monday. Track of this one will be critical to determining precipitation type. This system may also try to intensify rapidly as it departs but will watch in case it happens sooner.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill often below 10.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Chance of snow late. Lows 10-18. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of snow morning with minor accumulation. Highs 28-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow late. Lows 20-28. Highs 35-42.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy early with chance of snow/mix/rain. Partly sunny later. Lows 32-40. Highs 40-48.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
Active pattern continues with fair/cold weather February 14, then a storm threat February 15 which may bring snow/mix. A very cold air mass may arrive for the middle and end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)
Temperatures recover and moderate with a little more quiet pattern.

3:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
The low level cold air moved back into the immediate suburbs of Boston during the night with any wet areas frozen over. This also extends further north, west, and even southwest of Boston into the early morning hours so watch for icy ground and ice-covered vehicles. Allow extra time. As a cold front moves through the region this morning a band of rain will accompany it, and this rain may still freeze on surfaces that remain cold in areas northwest of Boston. There is a secondary trough behind this front that the cold air sits behind, so initially it will actually warm up after the cold front passes, something that is not all that uncommon here. The cold air will move in starting late today and especially tonight as the next storm system approaches. This system will pass just south of New England Thursday, while intensifying, and bring significant snow to the region. It may start as mix/rain south of Boston and especially toward the South Coast, but cold air will overtake this area too and result in mainly snow, though wetter in consistency than the drier snow that will fall deeper in the colder air to the north and northwest. Behind this a shot of very cold air follows for Friday. A weak low pressure system may bring some snow early Saturday but the majority of the weekend looks precipitation-free, until Sunday night when the next system may arrive with some light rain/mix/snow. The timing and precipitation type are uncertain at this time.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers ending west to east morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 52-60 by midday then turning colder late day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow developing southwest to northeast toward dawn except likely starting as mix/rain south of Boston especially South Coast and may be mixed with rain near the South Coast. Temperatures fall through the 30s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times, with the greatest risk for heaviest snow in the region from northeastern CT and northern RI through southeastern and east central MA. Expected snow accumulation 6-12 inches for most areas but may be under 6 inches in portions of southern NH as well as near the South Coast. Blowing and drifting snow especially north and west of Boston. Temperatures fall into the 20s. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts from the I-95 belt westward, NE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 8-15. Highs 20-28.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow especially AM. Lows 10-18. Highs 28-35.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain especially late. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Low confidence forecast here. Most likely unsettled with mix/rain February 13, fair/colder February 14, storm threat February 15-16 with snow/mix potential, and possibly very cold by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)
Low confidence forecast here as well. Leaning toward dry weather and temperature moderation early to mid period and a storm threat toward the end.

5:09PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Oh how things can change, and they have here on this 39th anniversary of the Great Blizzard of 1978. We are having our own storm today, nothing like that biggie, but one that produced up to a few inches of snow in central and northern MA into southern NH before turning to sleet/rain/freezing rain. This scenario will go on for a while this evening and milder air will be moving in, turning everything to just rain showers. Very mild air will be in place early Wednesday, but that brief interlude will come to a crashing end as a strong cold front moves across the region and sends the temperature down in a fairly quick fashion from late Wednesday into Thursday. A low pressure area that looked like it may stay far enough southeast to just graze the region now looks pretty solidly like it will take a perfect track to deliver a significant snowfall to pretty much all of southern New England Thursday. Fair and cold weather will follow this on Friday. And as the pattern continues active, a clipper type low pressure system will bring the threat of some light snow by Saturday.
THROUGH EVENING: Overcast with rain occasionally mixed with sleet, especially north of Boston. Some pockets of freezing rain interior northern MA into southern NH. Temperatures ranging from near 32 northwest of Boston to near 40 South Coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
OVERNIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperatures rise through the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 52-60 by midday then turning colder late day. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW during the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Snow developing southwest to northeast toward dawn and may be mixed with rain near the South Coast especially over the islands.. Temperatures fall through the 30s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times. Early call on accumulation a widespread 6-12 inches, but probably under 6 inches over Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, and pockets of greater than 12 inches possible from northern RI and northeastern CT through central and eastern MA. Blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures fall into the 20s. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 8-15. Highs 20-28.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows 10-18. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Next disturbance later February 12 into February 13 should come along with slightly milder air and bring rain/snow showers to the area. Fair, colder weather February 14-15. Next storm threat late in the period would likely be a snow producer if it were to occur.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Pattern should feature near to below normal temperatures but drier weather.

7:33AM / EDIT 3:30PM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
High pressure moves out of the region by tonight and a warm front approaches from the south by early Tuesday. A little wave of low pressure moving along this front will keep it from advancing too far north at first. Eventually, a stronger low, the parent to this front, will move through the Great Lakes and into southern Canada, dragging warmer air up into southern New England. As is typical, the cold air will hang on longest over the interior and especially valley locations. Precipitation is expected to arrive and also develop over the region from the pre-dawn hours to shortly after dawn Tuesday so that by early to mid morning much of southern NH and northern to central MA will be snowing, with mix/rain to the south. This rain/snow line will advance slowly northward during the day, but cold air hanging at the surface means that a period of freezing rain is likely away from the coast especially in north central to interior northeastern MA and southern NH. These areas will also see the most snow before the changeover, although the amounts will not be all that significant. By Tuesday night and early Wednesday, the warm air wins out with plain rain tapering to rain showers. A cold front will come through later Wednesday without much fanfare, but will deliver enough cold air so that the next precipitation threat, Thursday, would be in the form of snow. The question is, how far north does the low pressure area bringing this threat track? For now, going to lean toward a light to moderate snow event, with the greatest chance for moderate amounts being over southeastern MA, RI, and parts of CT, with less to the north. This system should also be moving fairly quickly. By Friday, windy/cold but dry weather is back.
TODAY: Mostly sunny through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy late in the day. Highs 32-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow with a coating to a few inches possible mainly along and west of I-95 and north of the Mass Pike with the greatest chance of a few inches in higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH, changing sleet and freezing rain here during the day. Brief snow/sleet/rain elsewhere becoming mainly rain during the day. Highs 31-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely mainly morning. Lows 31-39 early. Highs 45-55, warmest southeastern areas.
THURSDAY: Chance of snow AM. Breaking clouds PM. Windy. Temperatures fall 30s to 20s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 12-20. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
A couple small low pressure areas are expected to track through the region during the weekend of February 11-12 with some light snow/rain. Will fine-tune the details as it gets closer. Improving weather but turning windy and colder by later February 13 through February 14. Next storm threat in pattern of fast-moving systems will be here as early as February 15.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)
Unsettled with precipitation threat to start the period, then trending drier. Temperatures near to below normal.

8:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Low pressure passes north of the region today but has so little moisture to work with it just looks like clouds will be the dominant feature and rain/snow showers will never really materialize. Behind this system, colder air flows in for Monday and the next system approaches Monday night and Tuesday as a low pressure wave along a front to the south of New England, which will lift northward with time. That will bring snow/ice/rain into the region Tuesday with snow most likely in northern MA and southern NH to start, ice for a portion of inland locations and rain closer to the coast and areas to the south. This will lift out of the region later before a stronger low tracks well north of New England dragging mild air up from the south and causing numerous rain showers Wednesday ahead of a stronger cold front. This front moves through Thursday, which will be much colder. Will be watching to see if moisture gets out of southeastern areas before the cold air arrives early Thursday just in case there is a resultant change to snow there, but for now will lean toward the drier scenario.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 36-44. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 22-30. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny through early afternoon. Mostly cloudy late in the day. Highs 32-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow with a coating to a few inches possible mainly along and west of I-95 and north of the Mass Pike with the greatest chance of a few inches in higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH, changing sleet and freezing rain here during the day. Brief snow/sleet/rain elsewhere becoming mainly rain during the day. Highs 31-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely mainly morning. Lows 31-39 early. Highs 45-55, warmest southeastern areas.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy AM. Partly cloudy PM. Windy. Temperatures fall to 30s then 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
A dry and cold start, then milder with a mid period minor weather system bringing mix/rain, followed by fair and colder end to period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 15-19)
Will watch this period of time for a little more activity in terms of storm threats.

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
High pressure slides from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic today bringing fair but cold weather to southern New England. Low pressure passing north of the region Sunday will drag a cold front through by Sunday night with a few snow/rain showers around. A shot of cold air follows this for Monday with dry weather. By Tuesday, the first part of a complex storm system will arrive with low pressure moving along the front to our south, cold air in place and overrunning warmer air above. Snow/ice will result. The second part of this event will be as broad low pressure area tracks north of New England, drawing mild air up from the south, first aloft, later at the surface, with a changeover in precipitation eventually to rain for Wednesday. It will be the transition period between that will be the tricky part of the forecast.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. PM rain/snow showers possible. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow develops during the day and turns to ice and rain later day and night. Lows 20-27. Highs 28-35.
WEDNESDAY: Ice to rain, ending as rain showers late. Lows 28-35. Highs 38-45 north, 45-53 south.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Windy/colder February 9, then a more tranquil pattern with only a couple minor weather systems bringing light precipitation threats during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 14-18)
A couple minor weather systems but overall a quiet pattern. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
High pressure slides from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic today and Saturday bringing fair but cold weather to southern New England. Low pressure passing north of the region Sunday will drag a cold front through by Sunday night with a few snow/rain showers around. A shot of cold air follows this for Monday with dry weather. By Tuesday, the first part of a complex storm system will arrive with low pressure moving along the front to our south, cold air in place and overrunning warmer air above. This will result in a snow/ice event, the details of which will be known as it gets closer.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. PM rain/snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/ice likely mainly afternoon. Lows 20-27. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
The second part of a complex weather system is expected February 8 with ice to rain as milder air wins out. However, this is pretty far out to try to pin down any details. Fair, windy, colder weather expected February 9, then mainly fair and more tranquil thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 13-17)
Unsettled weather is most likely early in the period otherwise mainly dry. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
This morning, a bunch of rodents in various parts of the country appear out of holes, or are pulled out of boxes by humans dressed in funny hats and coats, and make predictions about the end of winter, or maybe a script is read which is just for fun and actually means nothing more than the fun little tradition and news story this has become. Not to be a party-pooper, but regardless of what any animal predicts, the weather is going to do what it is going to do, and we like to peek out 15 days every blog, but the focus will always be on the first 5 days. So here we go, starting today, Groundhog Day, with a mainly dry and chilly day. However, an approaching cold front may trigger scattered snow showers and snow squalls this afternoon and evening, so be on the look-out for those especially if traveling. Squalls don’t usually last more than a few to several minutes, but can bring visibility way down and rapidly coat the ground with snow, making untreated surfaces slippery. This front will usher in the coldest air we have seen in a while for Friday and Saturday, though this will not be an excessively cold air mass by February standards. By Sunday, we’ll start to see moderation as low pressure approaches from the west. This system is likely to be split into 2 parts, with the focus of energy being both well north and well south of southern New England, leaving this area in between with just some snow and rain showers later Sunday or Sunday evening. By Monday, this system will be offshore and moving away, with fair and chilly weather expected.
TODAY: Sun and clouds. Scattered snow showers and snow squalls this afternoon. Any squalls may be briefly heavy with quick coatings of snow. Highs 32-37 central MA to southern NH, 37-42 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially near any snow squalls.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with scattered to isolated snow showers and snow squalls. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 13-18 interior, 18-23 coast. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. PM rain/snow showers. Lows 18-25. Highs 35-42.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows 25-32. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
The timing of the next low pressure system brings the threat of unsettled weather back for February 7-8, with the very early indications for a snow/mix threat February 7 and a milder push of air with rain showers for February 8 as low pressure would pass north of the region. This is not set in stone yet so check back for updates. Drier, windy, colder weather would follow this for mid period with more tranquil weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
A couple of weak systems may bring light precipitation threats. At the moment, this does not look like a very stormy nor very cold stretch. Will watch for changes.

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Low pressure trough weakens over the region today with lingering clouds and possibly a snow shower. Cold front arrives Thursday with a few snow showers/squalls possible. Dry and colder for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds in. A broad split low pressure system approaches later Sunday likely bringing a few snow showers at night.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 32-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers/squalls in the afternoon. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-23. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 12-20. Highs 28-35.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers at night. Lows 10-18. Highs 32-40.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 6-10)
Next storm threat comes about the middle of the period, but too far away to be sure of track of system. All solutions are on the table.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 11-15)
Weather looks fairly quiet and seasonably chilly during this period.

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
A clipper low will track just south of New England tonight, basically the right track for a southern New England snowfall. This will be a light to moderate snowfall. The elongated nature of this system will keep the snow going into the early hours of Wednesday before it all lifts to the north and out of here. But an additional disturbance may fire off some snow showers/squalls Wednesday afternoon, with one final one bringing yet another chance of a few more on Thursday. Fair and cold weather will dominate Friday and Saturday.
TODAY: Clouding up. Snow developing southwest to northeast this afternoon. Highs 27-34. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow of varying intensity with general accumulation of 2-5 inches regionwide except a few amounts under 2 inches near the South Coast and isolated amounts of over 5 inches possible northern CT, northern RI, south central MA, and east coastal MA to southeastern NH. Lows 19-27. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with snow lingering in northeastern MA and southern NH, then a sun/cloud mix with scattered snow showers and snow squalls in the afternoon. Any squalls can briefly reduce visibility and quickly coat roads with snow. Highs 32-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH early, then W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-23. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 12-20. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Next low pressure area may track north of the region later February 5 into February 6 bringing mix/rain showers and milder air, and a follow up system around February 8 may do the same, but the forecast confidence for this period is lower than average, so will re-evaluate for the next update.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 10-14)
Weather looks fairly quiet and seasonably chilly heading toward the middle of February. But again lower confidence here and will re-visit this tomorrow.

7:21AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
For days on end I was eyeing the possibility of a snow event somewhere in the last 4 days of January. That “event” is actually taking place, but 99% of it is just barely offshore to the south of New England, with the other 1% probably bringing a little mix/snow to Nantucket later today. For the rest of the southern New England region, it’s more dry weather with a seasonable chill to the air. We’re now in a pattern of colder weather compared to what we have seen for most of January, and this will also continue into the first few days of February. A strung out area of low pressure with several centers, kind of a broken up clipper system, will slide east southeastward out of Canada and across New England Tuesday and Wednesday with some light snow and snow showers. This will reinforce the cold air for later this week.
TODAY: Sun and high clouds most areas, but thicker clouds along the South Coast with a risk of some snow/mix Nantucket. Highs 32-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Risk of snow with minor accumulation Nantucket early. Lows 15-22. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light snow in the afternoon. Highs 30-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Periods of light snow with minor accumulation. Lows 20-28. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 32-40. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 13-20. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 4-8)
Fair and cold weather February 4-5. Low pressure area may bring snow/mix February 6. Fair weather returns February 7 but is quickly followed by another storm threat February 8.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 9-13)
Temperatures near to below normal with a couple disturbances bringing minor precipitation threats.

2:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
A cold front moves northwest to southeast across New England today but will have very little moisture to work with. Snow showers that occur in the mountains to the north and west will likely never make it into southeastern New England. What the front will do is bring colder air in for the start of the new week and the last couple days of January. A low pressure area developing south of Long Island Monday will track east northeastward, passing mostly south of New England, but may be close enough to clip Nantucket with some snow/mix. A clipper low pressure system will come along Tuesday with the treat of some light snow and minor accumulation. This will be an elongated system and will hang around into Wednesday with some snow showers. Dry and colder weather is expected Thursday with a strong northerly air flow from Canada.
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW late.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sun and high clouds most areas, but thicker clouds along the South Coast with a risk of some snow/mix Nantucket. Highs 32-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Risk of snow with minor accumulation Nantucket early. Lows 15-22. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light snow with minor accumulation. Highs 30-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-28. Highs 32-40.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-22. Highs 28-35.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Fair and cold weather February 3-5. Watching a storm threat for later in the period, February 6-7.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Temperatures near to below normal with a couple disturbances bringing minor precipitation threats.