COMMENTARY

Horrible forecast yesterday. No excuse, but the reason for me (and according to NWS discussion, others as well), extremely poor performance by short range guidance in picking up conditions that produce more widespread and persistent rainfall than they were indicating. A forecaster from NWS Boston noted that even the “best performing” piece of guidance was inadequate and far under-forecast the scope of the rainfall. Ouch. I gave a couple of forecasts to people for outdoor events that were less than accurate, to put it nicely, though the events worked out fairly well anyway. Still, not a good feeling when that happens! But, we move forward…

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Since the synoptic conditions haven’t changed all that much today from yesterday, today’s short term forecast is a little less optimistic than I indicated just 24 hours ago. No I don’t think we’re in for a repeat of the rainfall, but an overcast morning with drizzle patches and areas of fog may only improve very slightly, and I can’t rule out pop up showers at any time, as low pressure sits to the south and a fresh feed of Atlantic moisture remains in place. Finally, this begins its exit this evening as high pressure starts to shift in from the southwest and overtake our weather. While some lingering cloudiness is likely to be around Monday, expect a much nicer day overall with fair weather and it turning considerably warmer than the weekend was. This trend will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure sits just to our south and puts us in a warm southwesterly air flow. This will give us a preview of summertime with many areas going over 80 for high temps. This, of course, will be a lot harder to achieve closer to the South Coast and over Cape Cod where a southwest wind is a direct ocean wind and the cooler water will have a significant modifying influence. Thursday, the temperature forecast will depend on the speed of an incoming cold front, which will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with associated cloudiness. Details TBD.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle/fog. Chance of a shower. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog. Lows 49-56. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy South Coast to MA South Shore / more sun elsewhere. Highs 62-69 South Coast to MA South Shore, 70-77 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs ranging from near 60 Cape Cod to 81-88 Merrimack Valley, interior MA, southern NH. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs ranging from near 60 Cape Cod to 81-88 Merrimack Valley, east central to central MA, southern NH. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 68-75, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

Models may not yet see what turns out to be a rain threat from passing low pressure on May 24, followed by fair weather to at least start and get into the Memorial Day Weekend, with the potential for the next shower threat around Memorial Day itself, unless a slower pattern holds it off til the end of the period. Will monitor the trends. Temps will be typically spring variable.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Last few days of May look fair, early part of June maybe a shower threat. Progressive pattern – variable temperatures not straying too extremely.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)

A little weather toll booth stop today – a day that I thought would remain dry just a couple days ago, but for most places won’t be 100% dry after all. That said, we’re not looking at a Saturday wash-out either, just some scattered showers and patches of drizzle as low pressure offshore sends some moisture back our way via the Atlantic. This threat will last into tonight and even the very early portion of Sunday before it’s gone again, but there will also be plenty of precipitation-free time during this as well. It’ll remain on the cool side with the air flow off the Atlantic this weekend. The first few days of the upcoming week we will see a transition to fair, warmer weather as high pressure becomes established to our south and the next frontal boundary stays well to the west and north of our region.

TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle / isolated to scattered showers. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle / chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A shower or patch of drizzle early. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy South Coast to MA South Shore / more sun elsewhere. Highs 62-69 South Coast to MA South Shore, 70-77 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High s78-85 except 70-77 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)

Not high confidence on any details, but the general idea is that a cold front brings a shower or thunderstorm chance May 23, a follow up low pressure area brings a chance of rain May 24, then fair weather follows for the first couple days of the Memorial Day Weekend (May 25-26) before a trough brings a shower threat sometime on Memorial Day itself (May 27).

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Unsettled weather early period, then a progressive pattern brings drier weather back, but watch for another front with shower / t-storm chance later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

We’ll remain in a general easterly air flow off the Atlantic through the weekend, with varying amounts of clouds dominating over clearer sky, but very little threat of wet weather. It is only sometime tonight and into Saturday morning that some moisture from the east can result in areas of drizzle and/or a few showers. Much of the time from today through Sunday will be free of any precipitation threat. It will be on the cooler side though, especially the closer to the coast you are. This weather pattern comes about as we see a block with high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south. But the pattern breaks down early next week and high pressure moves over us on Monday, then south of us on Tuesday. This is when we see fair weather and a warming trend.

TODAY: Clouds dominate / intervals of sun. Highs 58-65, coolest near coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of drizzle and possibly a shower, especially eastern MA and NH Seacoast. Lows 47-54. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle and maybe a shower in the morning. Clouds break for sun at times during the afternoon. Highs 60-67, coolest coastal areas. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

Above normal temperatures middle of next week followed by a cool-down. Unsettled weather chances go up in the May 23-24 window followed by improvement heading into the Memorial Day Weekend later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

Drier with warming weather early period, unsettled mid period, cooler late period as we have more west to east progression of the pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

Low pressure to the south brings wet weather through midday today, then a drying trend begins as the low starts to pull away and drier air arrives from the north. A blocking pattern then puts high pressure north of our region but close enough to keep the weather dry from Friday through Monday with a generally cooling easterly air flow, starting to transition to a warming trend by early next week as the high center slips southeastward. After today’s heavier overcast, we’ll see varying amounts of clouds Friday through the weekend as additional unsettled weather is held at bay not too far away to our south and west, but by Monday the sun should increase.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain and drizzle around through early afternoon, then ending from north to south. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

Blocking high pressure holds early in the period with fair, warmer weather (cooler some coastal areas), then a bout of unsettled weather around mid period then a cool-down as fair weather returns at the end of the period, based on current expecting timing.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

Drier with warming weather early period, unsettled mid period, cooler late period as we have more west to east progression of the pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

Frontal boundary to north, low pressure to south. These players result in a kind of disorganized unsettled weather day. Patchy rain is around, more to the west, this morning and should diminish with time, but can’t rule out a few stray showers wandering northward in a southerly air flow today. Tonight, low pressure to our south gets closer and the wind turns more easterly. This is when that low’s rain shield works northward into the region, only to start getting eaten away at and pushed back to the south by blocking high pressure to the north during Thursday. This period of time will show a cool-down with a broad scale onshore flow more established. The weather for Friday and the weekend depends on the magnitude of the block and the ability of high pressure to keep additional moisture at bay. Today, I continue to lean to the drier forecast, similar to that of yesterday. But this is not a super high confidence forecast, so monitor updates.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy rain morning. Isolated showers afternoon. Highs 60-67 South Coast, 68-75 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns, especially South Coast to I-90 belt. Lows 50-57. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain most likely in the morning I-90 belt southward, then diminishing. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

Fair, milder weather early to mid period. Shower chance increases later in the period with a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Improving conditions, cooler start then warming trend.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

A spring blocking pattern is going to create better weather than we might have otherwise during the next 5 days. Now don’t get the idea that we have 5 straight top-ten days ahead. We don’t. And we’ll see a variety of weather. Follow along to gain and understanding of how I think this will play out…

A bit of an atmospheric chess game will work out mostly in our favor, keeping the weather on the drier side more often than not in the days ahead. First, a warm front is passing by first thing this morning, having produced lot of clouds and a few scattered showers overnight. But today, we’ll have a late spring feel in much of the region, even a little preview of summer, as the temperature surges well into the 70s to around 80 for highs, away from the cooling influence of a southwest wind off the Atlantic which will prevent much of the South Coast from even reaching 70. A cold front will be approaching the region tonight, but the short range guidance has been steadily trending this feature weaker and slower and I believe this will be the case. The front never really truly moves through the region at all. We get more clouds tonight and a few showers may wander into the region into the early part of Wednesday, favoring northern portions of the WHW forecast area, and then that should be about it for that front for us as it pretty much washes out. Our cool-down will result from low pressure forming and moving out south of our region later Wednesday through Thursday, turning our wind more easterly off the Atlantic. But the blocking in place wants to force this system further south, another trend I’ve been following over several days on medium range guidance, now pretty much confirmed by short range guidance. So the forecast for this feature is for some rain to occur near the South Coast Wednesday night and part of Thursday, but the majority of the region to miss out on the rain from it. This low sits off to our southeast then on Friday and Saturday, far enough way to keep rain away, but close enough to exert influence on the next approaching low, slowing it down and keeping it further south and west, hence a now mainly dry forecast for both Friday and Saturday. This part of the forecast, of course, is lower confidence than the next couple days, so check updates going forward.

TODAY: Lots of clouds early, then mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs ranging from near 60 Cape Cod to around 80 from Metro Boston west and north. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers late evening and overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible in the morning favoring areas north of I-90. A bit of rain possible near the South Coast late in the day. Highs 60-67 South Coast, 68-75 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast. Lows 48-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain near the South Coast early. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

Fair, milder weather early to mid period. Shower chance increases later in the period as an evolving zonal flow allows a trough and front to move in from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

Early-period unsettled weather potential, then improvement following. Temperatures start cooler, then moderate.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

Like last week, we have a warm-up to start the week off today and Tuesday. Today we moderate over yesterday quite nicely as we’ve lost the clouds and will turn the wind around to southwest with high pressure to our south. Tonight, a warm front will cross the region with clouds and maybe a few showers – much of the region probably staying dry or just seeing brief rain. Tuesday warms even more over today behind the front, with more sunshine and a slight up-tick in the humidity that those sensitive to it may notice. A cold front approaches at night, but most of the energy for its showers will stay to the north, with just perhaps a few wandering into the region overnight and early Wednesday as the front moves in and washes out. While this is happening, low pressure organizes to our south. The trend on this from guidance has been for it to occur further and further south, to the point where the primary rain threat from the low is confined to the South Coast. It looks like that at this point and my hints of a mostly cloudy but largely rain-free forecast for Wednesday as discussed on yesterday’s blog are carried over and solidified today. There’s a little uncertainty on medium range guidance for late week with a few different scenarios depicted, but the one I am leaning toward carries the surface low out to sea Thursday while an upper level disturbance brings a sun/cloud mix and maybe a shower. And Friday, another trough approaches from the west with an increase in clouds. Further refinement of this later-week outlook will take place on the next update.

TODAY: Cloud patches early to mid morning in some locations, otherwise a fair amount of sun then some additional clouds arriving later in the day. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 73-80 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers late evening and overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible in the morning favoring areas north of I-90. A bit of rain possible near the South Coast. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

My outlook continues to largely ignore medium range guidance in anticipation of some errors, so after an early unsettled start for the weekend of May 18-19 it should improve with a milder finish than it starts out. Fair weather early next week, maybe unsettled by middle of next week with milder weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

Upper level low pressure may bring cooler and somewhat unsettled weather early to mid period – details TBD. Improvement may follow for Memorial Day Weekend which is May 25-27. Low confidence based on how far in the future this is, so follow updates.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

An upper level low crosses there region today with a weak surface low passing to the south. By evening, it’s already moving out to the east. Instability and sun fuel will be limited today so I only expect a few pop up showers later in the day, mainly to the north of Boston, while anything with the low to the south passes well offshore. Monday, high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic coast and we see milder weather. A warm front scoots through the region Monday night and may produce a few showers. As a result, Tuesday’s a warmer day with dry conditions during the day as an approaching cold front stays far enough to the north and west. This front finally brings showers to the region that night as it moves into and across the region. Medium range guidance has been advertising a slowing down of this front and a wave of low pressure bringing more rain for Wednesday, but recent trends are this taking place further and further south, and based on some recent happenings with models in relation to the overall pattern, I’m going to lean cloudy but not too wet for Wednesday, with more notable improvement for Thursday with drier air arriving. However that day we may have to watch for a pop up shower as we’ll have solar heating and cold air aloft.

TODAY: Partial sun, especially eastern areas through mid morning, otherwise clouds dominate, but sun breaks may return later in the day favoring northern and western areas. A pop up shower possible this afternoon, favoring southwestern NH and northern MA. Highs 57-64, coolest along the coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 46-53. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 54-61. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible, favoring areas south of I-90. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

My outlook here largely ignores medium range guidance in anticipation of some errors that have been pretty consistent, so I lean toward a return to unsettled weather for a brief period May 17, improvement for the May 18-19 weekend which carries into early the following week along with a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

This period should feature upper level low pressure returning to dominate the pattern with a cool-down and some occasionally unsettled weather.

COMMENTARY

If you did not get to see last night’s display of the aurora borealis which was widespread across not only New England, but a good portion of the North America, including as far south as Alabama and Georgia, seek out photos online. I witnessed it myself and am in awe at how magnificent it was. I’d seen the display before, in a barely-visible state near the horizon a few times, but never close to this magnitude. Am I ever glad my sky forecast was wrong for most of the region. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

A large scale northeasterly flow continues today and the dry air that allowed the northern lights to be seen last night will help much of the region start the day with sun today, but a little more moisture coming from the Atlantic will help clouds to pop up and move in from the northeast, and a few of these can produce showers, though they will be isolated in nature, and most of the region will have another rain-free day. Upper level low pressure drifts into the region Sunday but the surface reflection of low pressure is rather weak and will move south of our area. At most, a few showers will work into the region Sunday afternoon but I’m not expecting very widespread coverage, making it possible that the entire weekend is rain-free for many areas. This feature exits Monday and that day, as well as Tuesday, will feature a warm up with a southwesterly air flow as an area of high pressure scoots to our south. A frontal boundary approaches later Tuesday, but I feel its associated showers will wait until sometime that night to move in. The front and a wave of low pressure likely combine for an unsettled day on Wednesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a shower but most areas remain rain-free. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Best chance of unsettled weather mid period. Overall pattern features a cool-down early in the period, then a warm-up later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Mild and fair to start, then a cooling trend with mid to late period unsettled weather possible.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)

The battle between moisture and dry air continues in our region for a few days. An area of low pressure passing south of New England this morning is starting the South Coast with a period of steady rain, with a little light rain further northwest from eastern CT to above the western reaches of the WHW forecast area in MA (CT Valley). All of this will be suppressed south while it slides east as dry air wins the battle by late morning, and the heavier overcast that sits over the region may thin out at times today. So while not as nice as yesterday turned out, we’re not facing a regionwide washout either. Another low pressure area passes by tonight and early Saturday, and this one brings some rain to the region from the South Coast to the MA South Shore, but much of that occurring prior to and right around sunrise, before that one makes an exit and dry air prevails for the most part. While there will be some breaks in the clouds to be seen Saturday, one difference from today is a slightly more unstable atmosphere can help trigger a few pop up showers, mainly in southern NH and northeastern MA, mainly during the midday hours. These should be spotty and not last long in any one area, and most of the region stays rain-free. Upper level low pressure moves into the region on Sunday and a weak surface low passes by to the south (again), and this day will turn out mainly cloudy with scattered showers around the region, but again not a widespread soaker. Early next week, this upper low has departed and we find ourselves in a warmer southwesterly flow with high pressure to our south and a frontal boundary slowly approaching in a ripply fashion from the northwest. While some episodic clouds from the frontal boundary will find their way into our region, we will otherwise see fair and mild weather, with of course a cooling influence where a southwest wind comes off ocean, especially along the South Coast. There’s some uncertainty as to whether or not the frontal boundary will be close enough by later Tuesday to bring a shower chance, so with low confidence it appears in this update today.

TODAY: Overcast morning including rain South Coast into mid morning. Mostly cloudy midday-afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight with periods of rain South Coast to MA South Shore. Lows 46-53. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early-day rain potential for South Coast / Cape Cod, and patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal locations, otherwise clouds break for partial sun. A pop up shower possible especially midday hours favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible mainly western areas. Highs 68-75 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Cooling trend in general. Hard to time specific unsettled weather threats but a couple of them exist, probably very early period and again mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

General best idea of pattern points to fair, milder weather to start this period then a return to somewhat unsettled weather later in the period with a cooling trend.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

Forecasts always present challenges in the longer term as it’s naturally more difficult to predict the air flow through the atmosphere and its impact on a given region the further out from “now” you get. Sometimes those challenges are realized in a much shorter term. Such was the case yesterday. Yes, the forecast was “right” in terms of a warm front causing one swath of showers and embedded thunder earlier in the day and then an approaching cold front setting off showers and thunderstorms later. The hail potential was definitely realized in the storms with many reports of it across portions of southern New England. What was a bit of a surprise was the coverage of the second round of activity, and the persistence of it. I was definitely lead a bit astray by buying too much into shorter range guidance that had the activity, but less widespread and of a shorter duration. But now that show is over, and we have some other forecast adjustments to make. You might recall several days ago I indicated some hope for Thursday in a longer stretch of unsettled weather starting Wednesday, then abandoned the idea based on more pessimistic looking guidance. Well, once again, should have stuck with the other idea. High pressure indeed noses its way in enough to give us a fairly decent day today. While we won’t have wall to wall sun, there is a good mix of sun and clouds across the region to start the day, with some high clouds streaming in from the west above patchy lower level stratocumulus clouds drifting north to south. This north-to-south motion is indicative of that drier air flow at the surface, and the difficulty of the higher clouds from the west to overspread and thicken during the day today indicate somewhat drier air above us too. It is tonight, finally, when a wave of low pressure approaches New England from the southwest, and the surface wind turns more northeasterly, that we’ll see clouds collect in a more concentrated fashion. A few of the lower clouds around during the day can build up just enough to produce a few rain showers mainly over southern NH and the northern half of MA, but these will be rather isolated. From late evening tonight to the very early hours of Friday morning, we can see an area of rain from the low pressure area to our southwest moving into the region, only to be obliterated by a renewed push of drier air. While I expect cloud cover to be more dominant on Friday than it will be today, the rain chance will likely be held at bay again after that initial push, for most of the day and into the evening. Finally, the low pressure area makes its closest pass Friday night and first thing Saturday morning as it slides east northeast, to our south. This is when a little more wet weather can occur, but most of it looks like it will be toward the South Coast, especially Cape Cod, while much of the rest of the region may be spared or just see brief light rainfall. Behind that, a shift of wind to the north will dry the region out again, and breaks in the clouds allow partial sun for Saturday, which is definitely a more optimistic outlook than I was carrying before. Does this means the entire weekend is saved? Probably not, because it still looks like another upper low and associated surface trough will drift eastward into the region on Sunday when I cannot rule out some showers, but some guidance does keep the region mainly dry for much of the day, so the potential definitely exists to salvage much of the weekend rain-free. Monday’s weather looks ok as upper level low pressure starts out nearby then shifts to the east, with a sun/cloud mix and maybe a pop up shower.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A possible shower favoring southern NH and northern MA late afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring central MA, eastern CT, and RI late evening / overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Potential for early-day rain favoring the South Coast. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns to areas mainly near and south of I-90. Patchy drizzle possible elsewhere, especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early-day rain potential for South Coast / Cape Cod, and patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal locations, otherwise clouds break for partial sun with a chance of an afternoon pop-up shower. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Early period milder and fair weather expected with a short-lived southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts offshore and a frontal boundary sits to the north and west. After this, a cooling trend and occasionally unsettled with some wet weather episodes middle to latter part of next week. More precise timing and details TBD of course.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

Medium range trends point to fair, cool then milder weather to start this period then a return to somewhat unsettled weather later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

A “dynamic duo” impacts today’s weather across the WHW forecast area. First up, a warm front with good instability moves in quick fashion from west to east across the region this morning and midday with the early sun you saw if you were up being lost behind thickening clouds, followed by areas of showers with potential embedded thunder in some locations. Behind this a break comes with some thinning and breaking of the clouds. Then the second member of the duo comes along from the west northwest from mid afternoon to early evening – this a cold front that will set off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, possibly a cluster or two a little more organized. Any of these heavier cells have the potential produce hail of up to 1 inch in diameter and a lower probability of a damaging wind gust, so while the chances are low that any one location sees this, keep an eye to the sky (and the radar) as we move through the afternoon. This exits early evening, possibly with rainbows in showers’ wakes in locations where it occurs before sunset as some partial clearing can occur right behind them. Another swath of clouds will slide across the region later this evening as the air flow shifts to northerly, but this will be followed by some additional partial clearing overnight into early Thursday as an area of drier air arrives. This means a little bit of sunshine can be seen to start the day Thursday, before clouds thicken up ahead of the next low pressure area. This will the first in a series of 2 or 3 low pressure waves that travel just south of our region through early Saturday, resulting in a much cooler and unsettled stretch of weather. It won’t rain all the time, but all in all it will be pretty dreary and chilly with a regionwide northeasterly to easterly air flow. This finally starts to back to the north during Saturday as low pressure pulls away, but upper level low pressure in the region will keep the clouds locked in and still the chance of a passing shower or patch of drizzle. So, it’ll clear out Sunday, right? Not so fast. Just as our system departs, another will be on its heels via the Ohio Valley, and will move across the region during Sunday which now looks like a slightly milder but still unsettled day. Sorry!

TODAY: Early sun east, thicker clouds from west quickly with showers and possibly a thunderstorm west to east across the area mid through late morning. Thinning / breaking clouds with partial sun possible first half of afternoon then heavier clouds move through again with scattered to broken showers and isolated thunderstorms, possibly containing hail and gusty wind. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, S-SW 5-15 MPH afternoon, shifting to WSW late-day. Winds can be variable and over 20 MPH with brief strong gusts around any heavier showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Early-evening showers South Coast / Cape Cod, otherwise variably cloudy. Lows 46-51. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partial sun morning, then cloudy. Periodic rain by late-day. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periodic rain and drizzle. Areas of fog forming. Lows 46-53. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain and drizzle, especially through midday. Patchy fog early. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and possibly a shower. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and possible showers. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle and showers. Highs 55-62. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

Improving weather early next week – drier & milder – as upper level low pressure moves away and high pressure moves in. This will be followed by another cooling trend as the next upper level trough and a couple disturbances associated with it bring more clouds and some wet weather chances mid to late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

Cool, drier weather early period, then a warming trend. Unsettled weather may return by the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

Today is going to be an example of how it can be “mild” or “warm” behind a cold front. By definition, the front that quietly slipped through the region last night was indeed a cold front. It was the leading edge of a continental polar air mass originating well to our north. However, over time, with the help of dry air and a high sun angle, that air mass has modified, so our day today in the “polar” air mass will be in many areas the warmest so far this year as high pressure moves over our region. The air mass is also drier than yesterday, when you may have noticed the humidity spiking up (my dehumidifier in the basement, which comes on automatically, kicked on for the first time since October last night). With a light wind today, the coast will be vulnerable to sea breezes, so those areas won’t enjoy the level of warmth inland locations will, but that’s typical for this time of year. Wherever you may be, if you can get out to enjoy today for a while, do so, because a rather lengthy stretch of unsettled weather pounces on us starting tomorrow lasting into the upcoming weekend. It starts as a low pressure area exits the Great Lakes and heads our way. A warm front ahead of it will bring a batch of showers through the region in the morning, then a break before showers and even a possible thunderstorm visit later in the day and evening from west to east (best chance of thunder to the west). This will be with a cold front as low pressure slides just north of our region. The front will move through at night and settle just to our south Thursday and Friday, where it will become a travel lane for a couple areas of low pressure. These will bring us periods of rain, drizzle, and very cool weather under a thick overcast both Thursday and Friday. The final low center will start to pull away from the region Saturday as we start the weekend, but enough guidance shows me that being a slow enough process that I’m reluctant to be too optimistic about clearing out that day. Will watch trends.

TODAY: A few clouds near Cape Cod and the Islands early in the morning, otherwise sunny, with some high clouds appearing in the west later today. Highs ranging from near 60 along the South Coast and Cape Cod to 71-78 most inland areas, with some cooling along the coast during the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely during the morning. Breaking/thinning clouds midday and early afternoon. Heavier clouds mid-late afternoon with additional showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH in the morning, S 5-15 MPH in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Lows 46-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH early, shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain/drizzle, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59 except cooler coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures generally steady 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain/drizzle and areas of fog during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind E shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

Another disturbance may bring a shower opportunity on May 12 to finish off the weekend but it should also be somewhat milder that day. Trend is for drier/warmer weather early to middle portion of next week before additional unsettled weather arrives toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

Low confidence forecast, but upper level low pressure should keep it on the cooler side, unsettled to start then a drying trend, with finally a late period warm up possible as the pattern opens up and becomes more zonal again.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

This Monday-Friday 5-day period, known to many as the “work week”, will feature quite a contrast of weather from one end to the other, and in some cases in the same day. Clarification is presented in this discussion. Read on. Today, a disturbance exits early, and start-of-day scattered showers, a few heavy, along the South Coast will exit. For much of the day, we’ll sit in a mild and increasingly humid but light southerly air flow. Inland areas warm nicely, while in coastal areas the temperature will be held back more by the ocean’s influence. Later today, a cold front dropping into the region from the northwest can and likely will trigger scattered showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm. Where these do occur, they will be brief, and maybe good for a couple rainbows on departure. This front sets us up for the pick of the week, Tuesday, dominated by high pressure. The air mass remains mild behind the front, so inland areas warm easily to 70+ for high temps Tuesday afternoon, while coastal areas are vulnerable to a healthy sea breeze. By mid to late afternoon a temperature contrast of up to 20 degrees may exist between some coastal and inland communities, another distinctive characteristic of New England’s springtime weather. Enjoy Tuesday, wherever you are, because the weather takes a turn after that. A low pressure disturbance and frontal system move in from the west via the Great Lakes on Wednesday, bringing unsettled and cooling weather to us as the wind turns more easterly over the region. The frontal boundary will sit mostly just to the south of our region Thursday and Friday while a couple waves of low pressure travel along it. I was a little more optimistic about Thursday’s weather previously, but not as much now, so I’m just forecasting both of those days to be generally cloudy, occasionally wet, and quite cool. Sorry!

TODAY: Early showers exit the South Coast and a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible from northwest to southeast (least likely South Coast), otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland, with some cooling in coastal areas after midday. Wind S up to 10 MPH, may turn SE in eastern coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming in inland lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 except 60s coast where some areas can cool below 60 in the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Good chance of showers. Highs 58-65 in the morning, then cooling in the afternoon. Wind variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle in the evening. Lows 46-51. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers/drizzle, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59 except cooler coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures generally steady 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

The May 11-12 weekend starts cloudy, cool, and somewhat wet, but may have improvement with some partial clearing and drier weather before it’s over. A drier interlude early next week but may turn unsettled by the end of the period, middle of next week, yet again. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Overall pattern expected to feature upper level low pressure US Northeast and southeastern Canada, a partial block, and a generally cool and occasionally unsettled set-up here, but still plenty of rain-free time too.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

Spring in our part of the world is not all sunshine, warm temperatures, blooming flowers, and singing birds. Yes, we get any and all of that, and spring can have many nice days, but it also is a season of change, and while we get pushes of warm air from warmer parts of the country to the south and southwest in preview of summer, we still have a pretty cold ocean next to us, and often still some snow left to melt in parts of nearby Canada where some pretty cold air masses can still reside. This mix makes for volatility, and depending on the pattern, sometimes stretches of similar weather for many days. While there is some nice weather in this 5-day forecast, it’s limited, so pay attention if you want to make some plans to enjoy it…

High pressure that kept us fair and cool with varying amounts of clouds Friday and Saturday has given way and now we’re seeing things moving more from west to east across the region, which will be the case for several days. We start out by seeing a trough and frontal system move into and across the region today and tonight with a cloudy sky. Most of the wet weather from this system in our area will occur during the midday and afternoon hours, into tonight. It pushes off to the east early Monday with maybe a lingering shower. And while high pressure begins to build in on Monday, just enough instability will be around to maybe trigger one more brief passing shower in a few locations during the afternoon hours. The pick of the coming week is going to be an easy one: Tuesday. That day, high pressure builds in and we’ll have a mild air mass in place. Away from any direct cooling influences of the ocean, many areas will see high temperatures of 70 or greater that day. But it won’t last. On Wednesday, a disturbance and frontal boundary will move through the region from northwest to southeast, returning unsettled weather to the region. We may get a break for part of Thursday if high pressure to the north is strong enough.

TODAY: Cloudy. A few showers possible mainly west of I-95 midday hours. Widespread showers arrive from west to east mid through late afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with widespread showers this evening. Mostly cloudy with showers diminishing west to east overnight. Areas of fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds and showers lingering in eastern MA and RI early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with an additional shower possible in the mid to late afternoon hours. Highs 57-64 South Coast / Cape Cod, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs ranging widely from 55-60 Islands & Cape Cod warming as you go west and north until 75-80 west of the I-95 belt. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes developing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Good chance of showers. Highs 58-65 in the morning, then cooling in the afternoon. Wind variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle in the evening. Lows 46-51. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

A cool and unsettled stretch of weather is expected during the May 10-12 time period as a series of weak low pressure systems pass over and south of the region. High pressure builds back in with improving weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

Large scale pattern should feature upper level low pressure in the US Northeast and southwestern Canada, but weakening later in the period. This pattern would be slightly unsettled but overall drier, and limit the ability to warm significantly.