DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

The danger of the media speaking in absolutes will be proven, once again, today, by the lack of 60+ degree weather that many an outlet touted days in advance. While our area professional forecasters were cautious, many of the headline makers were not, so it ends up as misleading information. Now, I myself also spoke of 60 degree possibilities a few days ago for today, but with caution, as you know, with high pressure in eastern Canada being a potential thwarting influence on the big warm up. The observations at dawn today speak for themselves, showing a frontal boundary sitting right on the South Coast where temps are in the lower 50s, with the rest of the region in the upper 30s to lower 40s with either a light northerly or easterly wind. That frontal boundary may make a little bit of progress northward this morning, but any of that will be temporary, and the boundary will be shoved back to the south tonight and on through the end of the week. While this is taking place, a strung out area of low pressure will continue to provide us with a cloudy sky and occasional precipitation, which will tend more toward the freezing / frozen variety with time. The good thing is that as this happens, the quantity of precipitation will be limited, so the impacts will be lessened from that aspect of it. However, this does not change the fact that untreated surfaces will easily show the effects of the lowering temperatures as we move through Thursday and into Friday. The weekend’s outlook is improved, as it looks like most of the upper level energy I’d given as the reason for a chance of snow showers Saturday should be offshore before the day begins, thus allowing me to remove that chance from the forecast, just leaving it as a day of sun and passing clouds with a gusty breeze and seasonably chilly air. Sunday’s weather would be more tranquil as high pressure moves overhead but high clouds would already be appearing ahead of the next weather system in a Pacific jet stream pattern.

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Chance of drizzle, especially I-90 belt north. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA and 48-55 elsewhere morning to midday, then cooling temperatures from north to south during the afternoon. Wind SW up to 15 MPH South Coast, N to E under 10 MPH elsewhere, becoming NE up to 10 MPH all areas from north to south by late.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog evening. Periods of rain which may convert to freezing rain over inland areas of southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 31-38. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain except potential freezing rain early in the day interior southern NH and northern MA, may mix with snow starting north and trending south during midday and afternoon. Highs 33-40, mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain, which can and likely will freeze on surfaces away from the coast, and possibly sleet. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow except some mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow flurry possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

This range continues to be forecast with moderate confidence as guidance remains questionable and the pattern remains fast-Pacific-flow-driven. Opportunities for unsettled weather exist January 9 and January 12-13, based on current trends and expected timing. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Continued lower confidence in forecasting this far out with opportunities for storminess probably twice during these 5 days and temperatures near to slightly above normal with the same general pattern idea. Some hints in the longer range that the pattern may start to shift to a colder, drier one with a northwesterly flow, but I’m not convinced this won’t be delayed initially. Much time to figure that out.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

A stretch of unsettled weather will last most of this forecast period. Previous discussion basically holds. Low pressure will pass through our region in strung-out form, and the main forecast question yesterday was how far north a frontal boundary would get as a warm front tonight and Wednesday before being pushed southward by eastern Canadian high pressure as the elongation of low pressure was going by our region. Today’s answer is similar, but adjusted slightly to the colder side – less frontal progress – which is not a surprise as we have seen this set-up many times and it’s something I’ve been concerned about for a few days now. Being on the colder side of the boundary does set up some potential for slick travel later on. With this first batch of rainfall coming in today, developing and moving in around midday, while it is chilly, the temperature will sit above freezing in all areas, so icing is not a concern, nor is it during the main batch of rainfall as it passes through this afternoon and tonight. A break comes for much of the daylight hours Wednesday, but another batch of steadier rain comes in later, into the night and into early Thursday. Lower level cold will be more established at that time and the temperature may be at or even slightly below freezing over interior portions of southern NH and northern MA, creating icy conditions on untreated surfaces. Still additional precipitation will be around, albeit more spotty in nature, as we move into later Thursday and Friday, but this time enough cold air will have worked in aloft so that some sleet and snow will be involved, although not heavy. But this can add to some slippery conditions on untreated surfaces, and this time a little further south and east, while mix/rain may still be involved closer to the South Coast region with less of a chance of slick conditions there. Again not looking for a major winter weather event, but since we’ve lacked having to deal with slippery conditions much of the season so far, it’s important to note that it can be around and be on the look-out for it. By Saturday, the atmosphere will be drying out, but with some instability left as upper level low pressure still has to pass through, I am keeping the chance of a few snow showers in the forecast.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain midday on. Areas of fog developing, becoming particularly dense along the South Coast. Highs 36-43 except 43-50 South Coast. Wind SE under 10 MPH except around 10 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast and foggy with periods of rain. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH, except may remain SE in areas to the north of the Route 2 corridor.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog, especially north of I-90. Periodic rain showers, also areas of drizzle favoring locations north of I-90. Highs 40-47 southern NH and northern MA and 48-55 elsewhere morning to midday, then cooling temperatures from north to south during the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts except E around 10 MPH in southern NH and far northern MA, becoming NE 5-15 MPH in all areas from north to south from midday through afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog evening. Periods of rain which may convert to freezing rain over inland areas of southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 31-38. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain except potential freezing rain early in the day interior southern NH and northern MA, may mix with snow starting north and trending south during midday and afternoon. Highs 33-40, mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light snow and sleet but can still be mixed with rain South Coast. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow except some mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow flurry possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A snow shower possible. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Moderate confidence forecast for mainly dry weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures, but watching for a minor system around mid period that may deliver brief precipitation, and the approach of another system as early as the very end of the period with another precipitation threat at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Lower confidence forecast but still keeping an eye on the first couple days of the period for the opportunity to be impacted by low pressure and rain/mix/snow – TBD. Drier weather should follow that. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)

The pick of the first full week of 2023 comes early, and it’s an easy pick: today. But wait, what about those 60s on Wednesday? Shouldn’t we plan a beach day in January? Not so fast. Let’s go through this step by step to see how things really evolve, and why today will be a nicer day than Wednesday. Well, on the surface (yes, it’s a pun), it’s rather simple. High pressure controls our weather today, and even though its center is off to the south it exerts plenty of influence so we have dry air with temperatures a little above the seasonal averages, and while we will see some clouds at times related to disturbances passing to our north, it will be a nice day overall – for many people a holiday (the Monday observance of New Year’s Day). And then things change. You may recall last week that I indicated during this week we would be in a battle zone between warm air to the south and cold air over eastern Canada. The battle gets underway Tuesday as a warm front approaches, bringing in an overcast sky and a period of rain. While this is happening, high pressure will be building in eastern Canada, and a decent supply of low level cold air will be moving into northern New England. I’m not overly impressed with the set-up to push the warm air behind the front too strongly to the north, and this is why I am having my doubts as to how far that frontal boundary will get. For now, I am going to forecast the boundary making it into but not completely through the Woods Hill forecast area – probably into the I-90 and southern I-95 belt,. but maybe not all the way to the northern I-95 belt and the Route 2 corridor northward. If it does make it that far, it’s likely to be for a brief time only, as the low level cold will ooze southward by later Wednesday, assuming it hasn’t been so stubborn that it stayed in places in most areas. This is more easily accomplished as we will have a more strung-out west-to-east low pressure configuration to the south of the Canadian high pressure area. When we see this set-up, the models often forecast the warm air to make it too far north, and while it does move northward above us, it doesn’t really do so very well at the surface. And with plenty of moisture around, this means initially that we can have additional rainfall in the region, but with time, it may turn cold enough at the surface so that freezing rain and/or sleet become part of the equation, especially over interior locations to the north and northwest of Boston, sometime during Thursday. The scope of the issue this could cause would be determined by how much precipitation is around. We may end up with just spotty light activity, which would limit the trouble. As we get to Thursday night and Friday, cold enough air should move in at mid and upper levels so that whatever falls ends up in the form of light snow or snow showers. It’s uncertain how long that will hang around on Friday. Some guidance dries us out while other guidance keeps the cloud cover and precipitation chances going. Leaning toward the latter for now, but with plenty of time to adjust if needed.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain midday on. Areas of fog developing, becoming particularly dense along the South Coast. Highs 36-43 except 43-50 South Coast. Wind SE under 10 MPH except around 10 MPH coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast and foggy with periods of rain. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH, except may remain SE in areas to the north of the Route 2 corridor.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog, especially north of I-90. Periodic rain showers, also areas of drizzle favoring locations north of I-90. Highs 45-52 southern NH and far northern MA and 53-60 elsewhere morning to midday, then cooling temperatures from north to south during the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts except E around 10 MPH in southern NH and far northern MA, becoming NE 5-15 MPH in all areas from north to south from midday through afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog evening. Periods of rain which may convert to freezing rain over inland areas of southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 31-38. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain except potential freezing rain early in the day interior southern NH and northern MA, may mix with snow starting north and trending south during midday and afternoon. Highs 33-40, mildest South Coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light snow. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow except some mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 34-41. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)

Trend is drier for the January 7-8 weekend but still may be some instability around the region with a passing snow shower or two possible especially the first half of the weekend, along with more seasonably chilly air. Brief precipitation threat may exist sometime in the January 10-11 time frame from the remains of a system trying to move through from west to east.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)

Continuing to watch time windows of January 12-14 and again at the end of the period for potential precipitation threats from an active Pacific to trans-US storm track. It’s always difficult to time these things so far in advance, so for now read this as a fairly active / unsettled pattern for mid month with temperatures near to above normal as I think coldest air will be prevented from or limited in moving into this region.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)

Happy 2023! Yesterday’s unsettled weather was wasting no time leaving us, and the weather today looks even better than I had forecast just hours prior. All showers are offshore, and the sky has at least partially cleared if not mostly cleared out, but we will see patchy clouds at times today, and possibly a trend back toward more later on as a disturbance approaches from the west. What will vanish and not return today is any early fog patches as the air dries out nicely. The aforementioned disturbance will only bring its clouds this evening before it moves through and beyond, setting up a nice Monday with high pressure in control. But the fair weather will be short-lived. A warm front will approach on Tuesday, bringing clouds back along with some rain, and another shot of unseasonably mild air for at least parts of the region into Wednesday (60+ high temps potential for some), before a cold front brings rain showers followed by a sharp cool-down into Thursday. I maintain a cautious eye on high pressure in eastern Canada to potentially dampen the Wednesday warm-up, at least for the northern and eastern portion of our region. With a trough along the coast and additional low pressure in the area, any rain may switch to snow during Thursday as the colder air arrives. Further elaboration on next update.

TODAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late day. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 43-50 early, then rising slightly. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of rain showers, especially late day. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog. Lows 45-52. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Temperatures falling into the 30s. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)

Unsettled weather potential including possible frozen precipitation January 6-7 and another minor system may bring a precipitation chance late period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)

A low confidence outlook but watching the January 12-14 period for potential unsettled weather. Temperatures mostly near to slightly above normal.

This is the final Covid 19 chat post. The comment section will be open until March 21 basically taking us to the 3 year point since the start of the pandemic. Starting 5 days after this post was made, you can find it by going to the Archives section and scrolling to the first post under January. After January, make sure you go to the January section of the archive and scroll to January 1.

COMMENTARY

On this final day of 2022, I’d first like to thank everyone for participating in my blog during the year. Hoping for more fun discussion in 2023. This blog was created for weather forecasts and discussion – and that’s what we do here. Simple, yes? Yup, other things come up too at times, but mainly weather as it goes – well, since this is a weather blog. However, since 2020, there has been a covid section, first published daily, and then recently moved to once per week. I am going to publish one more covid post on Sunday January 1, and it will be the final one. However, I am going to leave the ability to comment open for 80 days, so the place will still be there to chat about the pandemic until March 21. Starting January 5, you will be able to navigate there by going to the “Archives” section of the menu, clicking on January, and scrolling to what will be the first post of the month/year. I have a few more exciting things planned for WHW in 2023, so look for news about that in the future. 🙂 To all, a safe, happy and healthy new year is my wish! Peace & cheers! And now, onto the weather…

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

After a very mild day yesterday, we’re going to see a repeat on the final day of 2022 – maybe a touch cooler than yesterday though due to thicker cloud cover and a little more southerly air flow off cooler ocean water, especially along the South Coast and nearby areas. With an increase in low level moisture, we’ll see a few rain showers around the region during the day. Unfortunately, it looks like an area of light rain will move into and through the region during the evening hours, putting a bit of a damper on travel to and from destinations as well as events like Boston’s First Night. At least the mild air will make the light rain more tolerable. We’ve had it far worse. The system responsible for the wet weather will be in a hurry to move through and we’ll have some lingering dampness and cloud cover Sunday morning just behind it, before drier air returns and we clear out. While the first day of 2023 will be quite mild as well, I’m not looking for outrageous warmth or any records to be set, and somewhat cooler air will be flowing in as we get to Sunday night and Monday – still a mild day but down a few from Sunday. It will also be a dry day with high pressure moving in. The next round of unsettled weather arrives Tuesday as a warm front approaches there region, bringing the clouds back, and eventually some rain. The low parenting this warm front will be tracking to our northwest, and its cold front will then come across the region later Wednesday with additional rain showers, but between the fronts, in the warm sector, we may challenge some record highs on Wednesday..

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): A cloudy start with areas of fog and a chance of rain, especially eastern areas, then breaking clouds / increasing sunshine. Highs 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH increasing to 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain by late day. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 43-50 early, then rising slightly. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of rain showers, especially late day. Highs 58-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Cooler to colder weather settles in during this period but only bringing temperatures back to near to above normal. We’ll have to watch for 1 or 2 waves of low pressure that can bring rain/mix/snow to the region, especially in the January 6-8 window.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

The outlook is not high confidence, but the overall pattern should still be dominated by a Pacific jet stream and a lack of really cold weather. However, temperatures will be marginal enough that any precipitation type can occur with unsettled weather, and I am currently eyeing the window of January 12-14 for a potential threat.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

As we approach the end of 2022, we will experience a spell of mild weather thanks to a combination of a Pacific jet stream having flushed most of the cold air out of the US and high pressure to our south giving us a warming southwesterly air flow in contrast to the anomalous arctic delivery from southwest wind just about 1 week prior. We see fair weather today, but as we count down the final hours of 2022 and get ready to welcome 2023, we’ll have to deal with a low pressure and frontal system from the west bringing us some wet weather for New Year’s Eve and into part of New Year’s Day. This won’t be a heavy rain producer, but enough to put a damper in some of the outdoor celebrations and travel to and from New Years events. At least we won’t have to deal with any ice as our temperatures will be running quite above normal – maybe even challenging a few record high minimums for the first day of the year. The current record high mins for 1-1 are 48 at Boston, 45 at Hartford, 43 at Worcester, and 42 at Providence, all set in 1965. Drier air will return during the midday and afternoon hours of Sunday behind the departing system, and a shot of slightly cooler air, but still milder than normal, will be inbound for that night as well as Monday, with dry weather. Clouds return Tuesday as a warm front approaches ahead of low pressure heading for the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 57-64 elsewhere.. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog especially near the South Coast. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Overcast. Periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy with rain tapering off in the morning. Areas of fog until midday. Breaking clouds giving way to sun afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day and nighttime rain expected. Highs 45-52. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)

Warm sector weather as low pressure passes to the north of our area January 4 with very mild temperatures and a chance of rain showers. Cooling trend thereafter but only back toward normal as high pressure builds in eastern Canada and toward the Great Lakes while another high holds off the East Coast but gives ground with time. In between that, for our region, there can be additional unsettled weather with rain then some risk of mix/snow before a series of disturbances depart the region late period. There will be a lot of fine-tuning to do as we get closer to this unsettled stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)

Pattern should support closer to normal temperatures heading toward mid January with fair weather to start then a return to unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

The predominant pattern is now driven by a strong Pacific jet stream coming into and across the US and high pressure off the US East Coast. This will continue as we count down the final days of 2022 and begin 2023. Fair and mild weather is the story for today and Friday, and then we go unsettled just in time to ring in the new year, with the potential for some rainfall to dampen travel and outdoor activities for New Year’s Eve, and a pretty wet start at least for New Year’s Day. Still working on the timing of this and will detail it a little more precisely over the next couple updates… After that system passes, fair weather returns to round out the 5-day period.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers possible during the evening. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)

During this period we will sit near a boundary between mild air to the south and east and cooler to colder air to our north and northwest, leaving us vulnerable to a couple unsettled weather systems. It’s too early to really try timing the unsettled weather precisely, as well as predicting the precipitation type, but odds favor rain for anything earlier in the period and the frozen potential is a little higher later in the period as I believe the trend will be colder.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)

A similar pattern to what’s expected in the 6-10 day period continues to keep us in the zone for a couple of precipitation events with variable temperatures, averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Today is transition day as high pressure slips off the East Coast and a clipper system travels to our north. We’ll see lots of clouds and slightly milder air. Thursday and Friday will be fair and mild late December days with high pressure firmly established off the US East Coast. As we approach the time to flip the calendar, it will turn unsettled over the weekend that takes place. Clouds will dominate Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches from the west. There is some question as to how much rain will make it into the region that day. I will include the chance of passing rain showers for now, holding off much of the rainfall until later at night, possibly before midnight, and into a portion of the first day of 2023 before low pressure pulls a frontal boundary to our east and drier air arrives. Some fine-tuning will be needed for the weekend (New Year’s Eve / New Year’s Day) forecast.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers possible during the evening. Rain likely overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely in the morning. Breaking clouds afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W with higher gusts by late in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)

During the first several days of the new year we will sit near a boundary between mild air to the south and east and cooler to colder air to our north and northwest, leaving us vulnerable to a couple unsettled weather systems. It’s too early to really try timing the unsettled weather precisely, but eyeing January 4 and 6 as higher potentials.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)

A similar pattern to what’s expected in the 6-10 day period continues to keep us in the zone for a couple of precipitation events with variable temperatures, averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)

The final 5 days of 2022 are covered in this first section of the blog and we’ll have a fairly quiet pattern during this stretch of time. The main feature will be a gradual warming trend as high pressure becomes established off the East Coast. Several other things will be going on – none of them major. First, clouds start today as a disturbance move through the region, but its departure will allow for sun to follow the clouds. A clipper low will track north of our region early to midday Wednesday with more cloudiness, but will keep an area of snow and snow showers to our north (delivering some accumulation to the mountains). Fair weather is expected otherwise through Friday and into Saturday, but clouds will advance into the region on Saturday ahead of a frontal boundary. I cannot rule out some rain shower activity in the region before Saturday is over, but at the moment I expect this to hold off for most areas until at least sometime after dark. They may be a factor for those out and about to celebrate the coming of the new year. Will fine-tune as we get closer.

TODAY: A cloudy start, then slow clearing. Highs 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds return overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible. Highs 47-54. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)

Low pressure moving through the region is expected to provide a wet and mild start to 2023, followed by fair and slightly cooler weather, then another disturbance with mild and rain showery weather around January 4, exiting quickly thereafter in a progressive pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)

Watching the January 6-8 window for potential unsettled weather which can be in any form from rain to ice to snow as we’ll be near the border of mild air along the East Coast and colder air from Canada. Drier, seasonably chilly weather follows.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

A fairly quiet final stretch of 2022 this week, starting cold, ending mild as high pressure shifts to a position off the East Coast over the coming days. Only a weak disturbance passing by tonight may bring with it a few light snow showers to portions of the region.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. A possible snow flurry favoring southern NH and northern MA. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Early clouds then sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

A mild end to 2022 with high pressure offshore and a trough approaching from the west, which may bring some wet weather before the final minutes of the year are counted down. Most likely unsettled days of early 2023 are January 1 and 4 based on current projected timing of disturbances in a generally west to east flow. Coolest weather January 2-3, but no severe cold.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

One or two relatively minor systems with precipitation threats during this period with a generally west to east flow. Variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

Here ’tis.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)

Merry Christmas! We will have a quiet but cold holiday overall. A snow band that has dropped several inches of snow over Martha’s Vineyard and up to a few inches along parts of the South Coast will fade away during the day. Otherwise, high pressure will bring fair, cold weather today into the early portion of the week with a moderation in temperature following that.

TODAY (CHRISTMAS): Snow showers with additional light accumulation Islands to South Coast, diminishing by midday, otherwise partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

Fair and mild weather is expected with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast for the final couple days of 2022. Unsettled weather, likely rain or rain showers, with low pressure and a frontal system moving through the region to greet 2023, followed by dry and somewhat cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)

One or two relatively minor systems with precipitation threats during this period with a generally west to east flow. Variable temperatures averaging near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)

Christmas Weekend will be a cold one, and mainly dry, behind the big storm. Today will be the windier of the the two days, and some ocean-effect snow is expected along the South Coast, especially Cape Cod and the Islands. Otherwise, generally dry weather is expected with only the remote chance of a few snow flurries making their way into the region via the Great Lakes. Cold weather eases up slightly but generally continues into early next week. Watching for a disturbance with a snow shower threat about Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Snow accumulation of up to 3 inches islands, especially Martha’s Vineyard, and up to 1 inch South Coast especially Cape Cod. Highs 20-27. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill around 10.

TONIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers, but additional scattered snow showers in the South Coast region. Lows 12-19. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS): Mostly sunny. Slight chance of an isolated light snow shower. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)

Temperature moderation heading through the last few days of 2022 with fair weather as high pressure moves off the coast, after which we get into some unsettled weather – likely rain, as a frontal system and low pressure area move through the region, to start the new year.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)

A bit of an up and down temperature pattern during this period with a battle between the Southeast ridge and high pressure in eastern Canada seems to be shaping up. Typical La Nina pattern. Too soon to time any disturbances / unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)

The long-advertised storm is in progress, and behaving as expected with no surprises thrown at us. Expect some coastal flooding and additional wind damage with potential power outages especially in RI and eastern MA to the NH Seacoast region where wind gusts are strongest through mid morning, with coastal flooding issues through the late morning high tide cycle. The lull is on the way and then we get one or two more rounds of rain squalls in the area this afternoon as the cold front extending from rapidly deepening low pressure in the Great Lakes passes by. As the low lifts into eastern Canada through tonight, an arctic boundary will pass by and may produce some snow showers and even a brief snow squall in some areas. While we miss a widespread flash freeze due to the wind’s ability to dry many surfaces before temperatures fall rapidly below freezing, we still will have icy patches and also some scattered coatings of snow which can also briefly slick up some surfaces. But the ongoing wind and much drier air should sublimate much of the ice into morning – but use caution regardless. Wind chill becomes the deal for Saturday, and while most of the region is dry with just a slight chance of a passing snow flurry, the South Coast will see some ocean-effect snow which likely delivers a small accumulation. Christmas Eve and Christmas Day continue to be generally dry and quite cold, though the wind will start to settle down moving through Christmas Day and any lingering ocean effect snow showers will push away from the South Coast, leaving only the slightest chance of a snow flurry from Great Lakes snow shower remnants. High pressure brings dry and chilly weather Monday, and a weak disturbance may produce a few snow showers Tuesday as it moves through from west to east.

TODAY: Overcast morning with rain and embedded heavier rain showers with a slight chance of thunder, diminishing from southwest to northeast. Mostly cloudy midday and early afternoon with isolated showers and even a break of sun possible. Then heavier clouds and 1 or 2 rounds of moderate to heavy rain showers moving through from southwest to northeast through mid afternoon, again a slight chance of thunder. Clouds may break for a glimpse of sun, especially near and west of I-95, prior to sunset. Snow showers are possible central MA, southwestern NH, and eastern CT late day. Highs 53-60 this morning, falling to the 40s this afternoon. Wind SE 15-35 MPH, gusts 40+ MPH inland, 50+ MPH coastal areas, diminishing for a while, then shifting to SW at similar speeds but a shorter period of strong gusts through mid afternoon.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with snow showers possible – minor accumulation may occur. Rapid icing over of any wet surfaces. Partly cloudy overnight with additional snow showers developing South Coast. Lows 12-19. Wind SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered snow showers possible, especially South Coast. Snow accumulation of up to 2 inches island and up to 1 inch South Coast. Highs 20-27. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill around 10.

SATURDAY NIGHT (CHRISTMAS EVE): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers, but additional scattered snow showers in the South Coast region. Lows 12-19. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

SUNDAY (CHRISTMAS): Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 28-35. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)

Quiet and cold middle of next week followed by moderation in temperature as we approach the change of year. May see wet weather to greet 2023, based on current timing and a more progressive Pacific-driven pattern evolving.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)

May start with a bit of wet weather then drier and a cool down followed by moderation again and potential unsettled weather by the end of the period. Far too soon for any detail, but the overall pattern looks somewhat benign for early January.