DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 18-22)
High pressure nearby moves offshore today with fair and milder weather for our region. Low pressure cranks up and heads through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada tonight through Friday. Stronger southerly winds develop as this system moves in and its cold front will sweep through with many hours of rain showers preceding it, and a final band or cluster of heavier showers including a low chance of embedded thunder. A wind shift to west takes place and it dries out other than the chance of an additional rain / snow shower as colder air returns Friday night. Saturday, winds slacken and we can expect a sun / cloud mix as a smaller clipper low moves through the Great Lakes. This system will pass north of our region Sunday when we’ll be briefly in its warm sector between a warm front, which may produce brief insignificant precipitation Saturday night, and its cold front, which may produce a sprinkle of rain Sunday daytime and maybe a snow flurry behind it at night. The winter solstice occurs at 10:03 a.m. EST on Sunday. Fair, colder weather is expected behind that low pressure area for Monday.
TODAY: Sun much of the time then clouds arrive late. Highs 44-51. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Widespread rain showers arrive west to east overnight. Lows 37-44 evening, rising through 40s overnight. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Overcast with widespread rain showers including the slight chance of thunder, then a clearing trend begins west to east mid to late afternoon. Highs 55-62 but starting to fall later in the day. Wind S 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH South Coast, gusts as high as 45-55 MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W from west to east midday on.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing mix / snow shower possible. Lows 22-29. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A brief period of very light snow possible mainly north of I-90. Lows 22-29. Wind SW 5-15 MPH,.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A brief rain shower possible. Highs 41-48. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief snow flurry possible. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 23-27)
Clipper low pattern and up-and-down temps, tending to be colder vs. milder. Watching for minor snow or snow shower events December 23 & 25, and a snow / mix / rain chance toward the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)
A similar pattern – a couple smaller low pressure systems with mostly minor impact, but causing variable temperatures, tending to slightly colder than normal.
Thanks TK !
Wordle: EPIC FAIL, lol !!!
I think I had 3 or 4 letters, mostly in the wrong spot by my 3rd guess and I just never saw it or sounded out what I had.
Obviously, when I saw the word after the fact, I shook my head.
A Belichekian, “on to tomorrow” 🙂 🙂 🙂
Ugh.. sorry. I was in a similar situation, but finally got it on guess 6. Back to normal today.
Haha, yes !!!!!!!
I did mean for me. 🙂
Me too !! lol !!
A really odd word. I got really lucky with guess 3 and it was the only combination I could think of to get in 4.
https://ibb.co/DHhWNjMG
Really nice. I don’t think it is an odd word at all.
Just had a really hard time zeroing in on it. 🙂
Thanks TK.
Good morning and thank you TK
28 here and that was the low.
Ocean: 46
Wordle: 6
Good to get this one.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=925wh&rh=2025121800&fh=39&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=925wh&rh=2025121800&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=925wh&rh=2025121800&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025121800&fh=36&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025121800&fh=42&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The magic hr on the winds seems to be 15Z Friday morning. That works for the GFS, with 3 hr panels (1st link), but the Euro and GDPS miss it as their 6 hr panels go from 12z to 18z (2nd and 3rd links)
The 4th link is the sfc for 12z and 18z from the euro and look at those isobars and can see the pressures dropping along the cold front. Plus, disturbance at 500 mb is strengthening as it approaches.
Thanks TK.
1,382 ❄️
I forget, is this the number of days since the last snowfall of 6 inches or more in Boston?
Yes, indeed.
It’s also the last time Beacon Street, where I live, was plowed. Salted multiple times but not plowed. A remarkable run.
The last one (6″ snowfall or more) was the 2022 blizzard in, especially SE Mass.
We had at least 2 ft of snow in Marshfield, in 8 hrs and we had blizzard conditions for 8 straight hours. EPIC, it was.
Should have known it was mother natures way of saying, its going to be a while til this happens again 🙂
Thank you, TK.
Up a degree from our low of 22
That’s a big difference with downtown Boston. My low was 31F, higher than JP and much higher than Sutton.
Tomorrow’s high could break a record in Boston. I think 60F is possible with the southerly wind.
I am concerned about the very strong wind – I am MUCH more anxious than my daughter who will be flying into it.
Wow. That is a big difference . It was still 32 at 12:30 but when I woke up briefly at 4:00 there was a thick frost on the cars
Boston’s record of 64 from December 19 1899 is safe.
I should say so. 🙂
Thanks, TK.
There’s some model mayhem regarding Europe’s long-range. As mentioned, it looks like a blocking high to the north could result in a prolonged period of cold. BUT the Dutch forecasters have not ignored the 30% chance that this does NOT happen and relatively mild or simply normal/typical conditions predominate. One meteorologist even said he thinks the 30% should be more like 40%. I like their no hype approach.
At this point they should just eye ensemble trends.
Joshua – I don’t blame you for worrying about your daughter for flying tomorrow. I am the same way with my kids. Hope she has a great flight.
TK – what do you think the peak gusts will be in the Natick area tomorrow?
Thanks
40
Thanks TK. That’s a relief after hearing a lot of near hurricane level forecasts.
0Z Euro for 12/26
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025121800&fh=210&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025121800&fh=216&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
10:1 Snow
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_024h-imp&rh=2025121800&fh=222&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Yeah, I get it. It’s an operational run which is highly likely to change. I just wanted to post a “snow” Possibility, however unlikely it may be. 🙂
12Z NAM, Yes it is the NAM, but here is the NAM’s predicted
wind gusts in MPH for tomorrow.
https://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM/2025121812/USA_GUSTM_sfc_029.gif
Sorry about that link. Please try this.
https://ibb.co/MyXJh2fF
12Z HRRR wind gusts for tomorrow at 1PM
Wind is in Knots
https://ibb.co/fYrxvwKp
50 – 60 Knot gusts
or
57 – 69 mph.
Wordle in 4. (But the wordle bot says I should have had it in 3…..)
Excellent job Julie and Vicki, our co-engineers so far today.
I got it in 5.
An interesting thing about the solution is that it’s the only 5-letter word ending with those three letters.
Nice job, both of you. At least I got it and avoid the Push Care or Kalamazoo. I’ll be sure to extend a line to Tom. 🙂
🙂 🙂 🙂
I think I grabbed a hold of it.
Good!!! We wouldn’t want to lose you!!!!
Than ………… k U …………………………. ! ! !
🙂 🙂 🙂
Excellent Julie and SClarke.
Wow. That explains why I couldn’t come up with another option so got the word… by default.
Maybe the one slight change I’m seeing on 12z vs 00z run is a slowing by maybe an hr or 2 of when the strongest winds could occur.
I felt like on the 00z info, it was squarely centered at 15znand with what’s come in at 12z, perhaps it’s btwn 15z and 18z
If that’s true, probably not a noticeable change but it helps out the south coast a bit by getting them even closer to low tide.
HRRR is really bullish on the winds!! even more so than the NAM.
I wish I had access to the winds of the RRFSA model.
Indeed.
Yes, I don’t know what’s happening on pivotal weather with the RRFSA model, some of its recent runs have stopped early in the run.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G19&band=09&length=24
Thanks, TK!
Thank you TK!
Epic fail for me today on Wordle.
Sorry To hear. I am throwing a lifeline from the caboose for you.
Welcome Sue, same and that is how I categorized my not getting it too 🙂 🙂 🙂
They really are getting tricky. Nice try to you and Tom
To JpDave, not sure I am looking at this the right way but at 850, the winds from HRRR look almost hurricane-like.
850 mb winds are at 95 knots
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850wh&rh=2025121812&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
note: that is rough;y 5,000 feet up.
That’s what my daughter will have to fly through no matter what. That’s not just a stiff breeze.
I am guessing flights will delay their takeoff time to avoid peak winds upon landing.
But she’s due in at 1pm/1:30pm.
Peak winds will last a while.
I am not looking forward to a sleepless night and anxious morning. I HATE flying. And I even hate thinking about someone else flying.
I know I’d feel the very same. Wishing your dsughter and all flying safe travels
The Person of Interest in the Brown shooting has been identified. No name given though.
not in custody at this time
Glad they identified the person. But I do find the investigation very odd.
I also read this disturbing bit of news about a possible link between the Brown shooting and the MIT professor’s assassination. https://www.wpri.com/target-12/police-probe-potential-ties-between-brown-university-attack-and-mit-professor-slaying/
saw that. I think that may be speculation. who knows
I really wish they wouldn’t put out headline like that until they have more info so it’s actually news. Until then it’s all rumor and speculation, and that’s not really news.
I do NOT like that direction media has taken during the last 2 decades.
While I would not be surprised, I also wish they’d wait to be sure
Of course. Kash Pa-Idiot keeps being premature with info.
BAD habit of his. He is USELESS anyway!!!!! Who knows who came up with the link to the MIT Professor’s shooting.
Probably some conspiracy nut job.
Reviewed 12z info. No changes. 🙂
Thanks, TK.
TK, based on yesterday’s discussion about the PNA and the IOD
would you change your snowfall estimate of 40-50 inches downward some if you knew this was going to happen? Just curious.
By no more than 5 inches, but since I know how quickly things can go the other way, I’d change nothing right now.
Good to know. Thank you.
Echoing what TK mentioned regarding ensembles, Dutch forecasters now are saying it’s an 80% chance (that’s quite high for long-range forecasts) that the blocking high settles in to produce a lengthy period of cold in the low countries.
How that impacts us is not something I can comment on. But based on my observations, usually if it’s cold there it’s milder (or simply above normal) here.
One thing you do notice there is that changes in temperature happen quite gradually. You don’t have plummeting temps or fast-rising ones either very often. So looking at Amsterdam’s 10-day you see a gradual decrease in temp, step by step. Then once it settles on, say, a 35F high/28F low (colder than normal for Amsterdam) it stays that way for a while. Same temp, wind direction (east/northeast), and wind speed. Very little change from day to day until the blocking high retrogrades or moves away in some fashion, allowing the more dominant pattern of southwesterlies to take over.
AP Sources: Person of Interest in Brown University and Brookline shootings identified.
Still no name given and still no one in custody.
I hope this isn’t going to go on all night. There is a show I’ve been looking forward to watch tonight.
Not so much concern with national tv but local breaking in and ruining my evening with very little new info.
CBS Sources: Arrest Warrant issued for suspect in Brown University shooting.
Uxbridge cancelled school tomorrow for a deep clean. 79 kids out yesterday
Norovirus????
They didn’t say but that’s my guess too
Medford had to close a couple schools due to norovirus earlier this week or late last week.
Ugh. It is a nasty virus.
Hurricane speed gusts in places like Colorado and Montana.
Thanks TK!
South/southeast flow in the cold season notoriously underperforms, often in a big way, when it comes to wind. And tomorrow’s setup doesn’t really “wow” me synoptically. So it’s a tad surprising to see the normally reasonable HRRR and RRFS showing widespread 55-65mph gusts over all of eastern New England tomorrow, which would be a pretty high impact event. Tough one for the NWS. Meteorologically I think you’re inclined to go low, but you kind of ignore the higher end potential at your own peril.
For now, looks like they’ve kept the high wind warnings confined to the Cape and coastline only. We’ll see if they expand it into the coastal plain if the hi res guidance doesn’t back down.
Thank you WxWatcher. Merry Christmas!!
Thanks WxWatcher. Always like to see your posts. Hope all is well with you.
The 23z HRRR brings 64 knot (73.6 mph) gusts to Taunton at noon tomorrow!!!
Breaking news says pd searching for brown suspect in Salem NH
The suspect was found deceased. He took his own life
What about Brookline?
It’s the same guy.
My friend in Methuen lives about 10 min from there and built that self storage facility where the guy was found. He does not currently own it though….they sold it 5 years ago.