Friday December 26 2025 Forecast (7:22AM)

81 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)

Today will be a cold and blustery day behind a cold front that passed through the region yesterday. Winds will subside later on as high pressure moves closer to the region. Clouds start to move in later today ahead of a clipper low that will dive southeastward and pass south of our region early Saturday. This system will deliver a swath of light to moderate snow to our region late tonight and early Saturday, with the lighter snowfall and lesser amounts northeast and a period of more moderate snowfall with a bit more accumulation further southwest. As the system departs Saturday morning, there may be a few hours where the South Shore of MA through Cape Cod can experience some ocean-effect snow showers with additional minor snow accumulation, so there may be a few bands of accumulation that exceed the area’s general amount, which will still be on the light side either way. With cold air in place, this will be a generally light and fluffy snow where it accumulates and rather easy to remove. The next low pressure area has a different flight plan as the upper winds will have shifted and will take it through the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada later Sunday, to redevelop over Maine and head into Atlantic Canada during Monday. The impact on our region will come in two bursts. The first will be a light rain and icing event Sunday night into early Monday. Icing (freezing rain) is most likely away from the immediate coast and can cause some hazardous travel conditions, coinciding with commute time on Monday morning. Shortly thereafter, the warm front causing this will lift northward and through the region, with a brief shot of milder air, but helping to melt any icing that took place. The storm’s cold front will swing through during midday and afternoon with numerous rain showers, followed by a wind shift to west and the return of cold air Monday night. Additional icing up of untreated surfaces can take place, though the wind and return to dry weather will help dry off many of these surfaces before a freeze-up can occur. Tuesday’s weather will be dry, cold, and windy behind that system.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives late evening into overnight from west to east, accumulating a coating to 1 inch except 1 to 3 inches from Providence to just south of Worcester southwestward into eastern CT, tapering off from west to east around dawn. Lows 15-22. Wind calm to NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds early with a period of snow showers possible MA South Shore to Cape Cod with additional minor snow accumulation possible, otherwise a sun / cloud mix. Highs 25-32. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with freezing rain (inland) and rain (coast) developing. Lows 30-37 evening then a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind N to E under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely midday into afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind E shifting to S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late-day from west to east.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

A snow shower threat December 31 and again a time or two in the early days of 2026, otherwise a cold, dry pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)

Variable but overall near normal temperatures with a couple disturbances to bring some unsettled weather, but no indication of major storms at this time.

81 thoughts on “Friday December 26 2025 Forecast (7:22AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    13 here and that is the low

    Ocean: 45

    Some models hint of Ocean effect reaching Boston, however, not quite to the extent of the South Shore region.

    Wordle: 5. ZILCH on 1st guess.

    Reply

  3. Thanks TK
    Looking at the latest guidance this could be the biggest snowfall since January 29 2022 for my area of CT. NYC has not had a four inch snowfall since then.

    Reply

    1. NYC won’t have time to enjoy their snowfall as it’s going to rain Sunday afternoon into Monday. It will be all washed away within 24 hours.

      Reply

  9. I would not be surprised later on if Winter Weather Advisories are extended to Worcester county.
    JpDave you mentioned ocean enhancement. Here is what NWS BOS said in their discussion.
    The other area of highest
    uncertainty is across SE Mass, where ocean enhancement may boost
    snow totals into the 3-6 inch range as the system pulls away and
    another reinforcing shot of cold air pushes south.

    Reply

    1. Yes, and even TK mentioned this area.
      In looking at the HRRR (and I am NOT saying it is correct, but in case it is) it looks to me as IF “some” of this enhancement makes
      it into Boston. Not as much as to SE of the City, but perhaps enough to add an inch or 2??? Will be MOST interesting to see what the other models say and what future runs of the HI_RES models have to say.

      Reply

    2. Down where Tom & I reside we had some good ocean enhancement snows where an easily 2 + fell in a short time a couple weeks ago

      Reply

  11. This day in weather history the Boxing Day Blizzard of 2010. This is what kicked off a six week snow blitz that winter.

    Reply

  17. Thank you TK!

    Belated Merry Christmas to the WHW crew! Was a very busy day yesterday and never made it to the blog but did manage to find time to fail Wordle. Today was a 5.

    Reply

      1. Thanks !

        Perhaps so, I think this brief ocean effect band is going to be found 15-20 miles inland, not right at the coast.

        One of those where marshfield moderates to 30F and it’s perhaps 15-18F inland. Might even get to your area.

        Reply

  28. The other thing the slight onshore flow can do is add a little moisture into the lower atmosphere which might allow some of the synoptic snow to make it to the ground, instead of being lost to virga.

    So, before any slight ocean effect kicks in, I could see the snow on radar covering the entire region with most areas reporting cloudy but Boston South reporting light snow because that snow is reaching the ground in a more moist environment.

    Reply

  29. The other thing with this snow the high ratios which will add a fluff factor. I know earlier looking at the 12z HRRR model it was showing snow ratios in the 16:1 – 18:1 range for my area.

    Reply

  30. 6Z Euro

    This even shows the ocean enhancement area

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2025122606/ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9.png

    the snow is not available, but this shows the qpf of 0.2 to 0.3 inches up to Boston.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2025122606/ecmwf_apcpn_neus_11.png

    Hard to say what the ratio will be, but I am guessing
    some where between 12-15 to 1.

    .2 at 12:1 = 2.4 inches
    .2 at 15:1 = 3 inches
    .3 at 12:1 = 3.6 inches
    .3 at 15:1 = 4.5 inches

    Could we safely say 2-5 inches for this one run of the Euro???

    Reply

  31. When you get those high ratios the snow piles up more quickly and you don’t need a lot of moisture.
    Just looking at the 14z HRRR run on the cod site when the snow arrives in the Boston area 16:1 17:1 ratio.

    Reply

    2. You are correct and then it goes to 18:1 !!!!

      Using the 6Z euro qpf of .2 – .3 for boston that
      would be
      .2 = 3.6 inches
      .3 = 5.4 inches

      Thus Pete’s 3-5 inches. 🙂

      Reply

  32. Phillip – you asked yesterday if the broncos win clinches the #1 seed for them. It does not. If New England was to win their next two games and the broncos fall to the chargers we would get the one seed. There are still technically five teams vying for the one seed. Broncos, Chargers, Patriots, Jaguars, Bills. That’s in order of most viable chances to get it. All the broncos have to do to secure it is win their next game. For the chargers to win it they’d need to win their next two games and hope the patriots drop one game. You’d think the Patriots wouldn’t lose to the Jets or the Dolphins but these ARE divisional games which just tend to be hard no matter how bad the teams have been. (The Bills lose any chance of a path to the one seed with a chargers win on saturday.)

    Reply

  37. Thanks TK.

    Wow did this little storm escalate quickly! Impressive NE shift in the models over the past 24-48 hours. We are now on the edge of Ryan’s 6-10″ snow area here in Tolland County after looking like we might only get an inch or two 48 hours ago. NWS already expanded the WWA’s further east this morning and would not be surprised if they extend them even further east into portions of Eastern MA this afternoon. Probably also enough support now to extend the warnings further east into Hartford, Tolland and Middlesex Counties.

    Such an odd setup for a significant snowstorm here coming in from the NW, diving SE, and strengthening on its approach to the coast. Can’t recall a setup like this before.

    Reply

    1. Mark there was talk in the discussion from NWS BOS to expand Winter Storm Warnings to Hartford and Middlesex county but they held off on doing so.

      Reply

    2. If you look at the precip type maps, you will notice that the snow comes in like gangbusters, but then rapidly decreases in intensity.
      That is why areas to the West get the high totals.

      Our only hope in Eastern sections is some productive
      OE snow which is very difficult to predict accurately.
      BUT it is certainly a possibility and that could get even Boston
      to an advisory level event I say “could” not saying it WILL definitely Will be watching for sure!!!

      Reply

    1. I think this is more of a coastal front as opposed to the last 2 events which were backlashes that got the immediate coastline.

      This is a coastal front scenario with just a slight amt of E or NE flow at 925 mb overrunning the boundary. I like where these small bullseyes are, not at the immediate coast, but inland a bit and it’s why I won’t be surprised if it’s a sw Boston suburb like Jamaica Plain that gets hit by it.

      Reply

        1. I “think” there will be OE somewhere, it’s just a matter of where it sets up. Most times it is South Shore like S. Weymouth, Braintree, Holdbrook, Rockland, Abbington area or there about.

          Sometimes, it get far enough North to get us here.
          Last Winter JP got 7 inches that was more OE than synpotic. So we can get into it for sure. I’ve seen it many times here and sometimes pretty decent intensity as well. Just doesn’t happen very often.

          Reply

  42. The way this is coming in if you told me to guess what kind of weather will be occurring I would be saying strong to severe thunderstorms. I can’t remember the last decent snowfall that came from a northwest to southeast direction.

    Reply

    1. 10:1 not really accurate here as ratios should be higher. It’s quite cold out today and there will definitely be a fluff factor.

      Reply

  46. Sure enough, NWS just expanded the winter storm warning east into Hartford County and advisories now extended east into Worcester County, all of RI and a good chunk of SE MA right to the coast.

    Reply

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