DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29 – JANUARY 2)
As you start your day today, the earlier it is the higher chance you encounter icy surfaces from the Boston area west and north, and less likely you do along the immediate coast heading southward from Boston to Cape Cod to coastal RI. It’s very important to note that in some areas a temperature anywhere from 33 to as high as the lower 40s might initially make you think there’s no ice on the ground, but due to recent very cold weather, the surface temperatures can remain at or below freezing for a while when the adjacent air has warmed above freezing. This means surfaces in those areas can still be icy for a while! Test all surfaces you’re about to walk on whenever possible! The “melt-line” will progress unevenly north and northwest during the morning as a warm front lifts through the region, while occasional rainfall continues, more in liquid than freezing form but with less coverage for a while before it increases again with the approach and passage of a cold front, trailing strong low pressure passing well to our north in southeastern Canada. Monday night, it dries out and turns cold and windy, with many surfaces able to dry off, but ones that do not and are untreated will become icy. We then will be in a cold pattern for the last couple days of December 2025 and the first couple days of January 2026 as a broad low pressure trough sits over our region. Strongest wind will occur on Tuesday with some gusts in the 40 to 60 MPH range possible, strongest in higher elevation and exposed coastal areas. A disturbance’s timing and resultant snow shower chance has trended a little faster from the afternoon of January 1 to more of a morning event. Still may need to tweak this timing but this is the current expectation.
TODAY: Cloudy including areas of fog through mid afternoon with surface ice gradually melting to the north and west, periodic rain northern MA and southern NH, a few rain showers to the south initially, then widespread rain showers west to east early to mid afternoon. Clouds start to break from west to east at end of day. Highs 35-42 in southeastern NH and north central MA and 43-50 elsewhere. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W from west to east later in the day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Lows 15-22. Wind W 15-25 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH, frequent gusts 25-35 MPH and occasional gusts 40-60 MPH possible.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W diminishing to 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the morning.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Overnight snow showers possible. Lows 13-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Partly sunny. Morning snow showers possible. Highs 24-31. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)
Dry, cold start to the period. Watching the January 5-7 time frame for potential unsettled weather.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)
Drier weather returns, then another system with a precipitation threat again later in the period, based on current trends. Temperatures variable, but averaging near normal.
Thanks TK
https://stormhq.blog/2025/12/29/weekly-outlook-december-29-2025-january-4-2026/
Good morning and thank you TK.
40 now, was 33 at midnight.
Ocean: 44
Wordle: 3
Zilch on 1st guess, 2nd guess yielded 3 letters in position. Pretty easy from there. For a few weeks now I have been using a different starting word each day. Seems to be working for me, for now anyway.
Patriots:
Impressive win yesterday that provided some significant play for the back ups. This is always a good thing. Now to beat Miami. Helps that the game is here as the Pats have never fared well in Miami. And let’s hope the Chargers can beat Denver. Would be nice to have that bye.
Nice !!!!!!!
🙂
Seriously, did anyone ever expect this result this season?
I don’t think anyone in the world expected this!!! Great accomplishment!
Screw Ben Jonson! Vrabal for coach of the year and screw Mathhew Stafford, Drake “Drake Maye” Maye for MVP!!!!!!
Very nice JPD. May I join your car please. 3 also.
Excellent. A crowded 3 car today!
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 3
In NYC for a couple days. A very snow covered landscape drive yesterday. They did have a solid 3-4 inches here yesterday.
Got to see some crazy nice Christmas lights south of Brooklyn in a neighborhood, I guess it’s a place to go down here, as there were a lot of people. It was really nice. My wife and daughters are doing the planning and I’m just following along 🙂
Nice 3 Tom!!
Enjoy NYC!!
Sounds like lots of fun. Enjoy.
And yay for 3. We have a crowd in the 3 car so far.
Testing
I think one of my posts did not make it. It’s wandering in cyber space. Oh well!
Thanks TK.
1,393 ❄️
Why is FOX televising so many AFC games?
They’ve always just covered NFC and NFC vs. AFC games.
I feel bad for Vicki and other Verizon customers.
The morning newscaster on Ch. 5 mentioned that he couldn’t watch the game either. I forget his name.
I plan to call verizon daily.
Thank you, TK. Up to 40 from an overnight low of 32
Looks to be melted here. Still not going out. I’d say 75-80 percent of our 4 inches of snow are gone.
Getting VERY THIN HERE!!
Is gone
IS NOT GONE here, but it IS thin. 🙂
Sorry. I was correcting my own comment. But it confused me when I just reread. I corrected are gone to is gone.
Thank you TK!
We better distribute the weight properly in the 3 car or we may derail. Permission to board?
Wow. Everyone. This is fun!!! Very nice, Sue!
Of course! Does this make four 3s so far? Well done all!
Thanks TK! History will look back on the Jets as a case of how one owner can destroy an organization. As a life long Jets fan I am as hopeless as ever and the one thing owners need to understand is once fans become apathetic it takes years to recover. That is current situation with the Jets!
Thanks TK
It looks like a lonely day for me in the usually-packed 4-car.
Congratulations on the great scores!
Our driveway is still like a hockey rink at the beginning of a game. Except it’s not level. 🙂
Welcome aboard. We will provide refreshments.
Meanwhile, strap on the hockey skates.
Well done and please join us.
Vicki, I was discussing your situation with some of my fellow residents at breakfast and someone suggested that Verizon customers simply switch to another company. She said that would send a message.
Vicki, why not switch today? I have Comcast/Xfinity. Cut the cord once and for all!
My only option is spectrum and I do not like them. I’ve had Comcast and others. Fios is the best I’ve had.
I’m still not sure whether this is a verizon issue or COX issue
If it is COX. why doesn’t COMCAST have an issue?
I don’t get it either.
Is COMAST even available in your area?
What a disgusting situation.
According to AI both are to blame and the consumer is screwed. See below…
In the world of corporate negotiations, “blame” is usually a matter of perspective. As of late December 2025, the dispute between Verizon Fios and Cox Media Group (CMG) has resulted in a blackout of local channels in major markets like Boston and Pittsburgh.
Both companies are using a standard “playbook” to frame the other as the antagonist. Here is how the blame breaks down from each side’s point of view:
The Case Against Cox Media Group (Verizon’s View)
Verizon argues that CMG is to blame for demanding “unreasonable” and “excessive” fee increases.
The “Money Grab” Argument: Verizon claims CMG is asking for a massive hike in “retransmission consent fees”—the price a cable provider pays to carry local stations that are technically available for free over the air with an antenna.
Customer Impact: Verizon positions itself as the “protector” of the consumer, arguing that if they agree to Cox’s high demands, they would be forced to raise monthly cable bills for all Fios subscribers.
Pattern of Behavior: Verizon and industry groups like the American Television Alliance (ATVA) point out that CMG has a history of similar disputes with other providers (like Dish and DirecTV), suggesting that CMG uses blackouts as a high-pressure tactic.
The Case Against Verizon (Cox Media Group’s View)
Cox Media Group argues that Verizon is to blame for refusing to pay “fair market value” for high-quality content.
The “Fair Value” Argument: CMG claims their stations (like WFXT in Boston or WPXI in Pittsburgh) are often the most-watched channels on the Fios lineup. They argue that producing local news and securing rights to NFL, NBA, and college football is expensive and deserves a fair fee.
Negotiation Tactics: CMG accuses Verizon of having a “pattern” of forcing blackouts rather than negotiating in good faith. They often highlight that they have successfully reached deals with almost every other major provider, making Verizon the outlier.
Corporate Greed: CMG often points to Verizon’s massive annual profits, suggesting the telecom giant is simply trying to squeeze local broadcasters to pad its own bottom line.
The Reality: A Changing Industry
Most industry analysts suggest the blame lies with a broken business model.
Cord-Cutting: As more people switch to streaming, cable providers (Verizon) have fewer subscribers to foot the bill.
Rising Costs: At the same time, broadcasters (Cox) are paying more than ever for sports rights and are trying to make up for lost advertising revenue by charging cable companies higher fees.
Affected Channels (as of Dec 2025)
If you are a Fios customer in the affected areas, you likely lost:
Boston/Providence: WFXT (Fox 25)
Pittsburgh: WPXI (NBC 11) and PCNC (Pittsburgh Cable News Channel)
Would you like me to find the best alternative ways to watch these specific local channels or live sports while the blackout continues?
YIKES what a mess!!!!
Vicki, I believe that switching to another company (might as well be Comcast) is your best bet for now.
What exactly is Fios doing for you now?
Fios is giving me reliable service. Spectrum as I said before is shady. It was outside my house beginning the disconnect to verizon a few years ago. Without any permission from me. I can guarantee fios is better.
I’ve had fios for 18 years and this is the first real issue. I’ve had a couple of minor issues and they were here the next day or day of. I don’t like this but I’d say that’s a darned good track record.
Well, sorry Vicki but it seems Fios is certainly failing you now. Unfortunately Fox is the only way to see Sunday’s Patriots game. I don’t know why CBS isn’t broadcasting it. They always usually do Patriots games.
Again, my best advice is to switch.
Makes sense and kind of what I was wondering about. Thank you.
We are forced to use Spectrum in some of our branches out your way and I can’t say that I am all that impressed.
They are shady.
You tube tv , I love it
You can have it in seconds & get free trial
I checked cost a bit ago and it is expensive. What do you use for Wi-Fi/internet?
I got a great deal with T- mobile as I use them for phone service & internet. I’m paying $50 something bucks a month for internet. It’s not good for sports but it pretty much gets all live tv & so much more , yes it has fox . Get a free trial for the game , you might just need to get a fire stick
This morning is starting out dark and gloomy again, just like Christmas Day. 🙁
Thanks, TK!
jpdave – I think Vrabel deserves coach of the year. But there’s no way Drake wins MVP. He’s great but Stafford has been better in a few categories against tougher opponents and NFL voters tend to vote based on “stories”. A QB having a great second year isn’t really as notable as a vet in the league who was disrespected in the past having a phenomenal year against tougher opponents.
I understand that, but I still want Maye. And Yes, I know that it is highly likely Stafford gets the nod. I can still wish.
One could argue the Maye is MORE valuable to the Patriots than Stafford is to the RAMS. The RAMS didn’t even make the playoffs.
With the Seahawks beating the Panthers and the 49ers beating the Bears on Sunday, the Rams have now been eliminated from NFC West contention before even playing in Week 17.
The Patriots would be NO where without Maye.
So there is my argument. Will others see it that way? probably not, but the case can be made.
Here’s hoping.
Cheers
Im afraid I agree with JPDs points. Although if stafford is mvp, I’ll understand.
It seems to be a maye vrable combination also. I was wrong when I credited BB along with Brady so could be wrong here too. I just like the way V greets his players individually as they come off the field. And he openly stands up for them.
Vrabel sorry. Misspelled
“the rams have now been eliminated from NFC West contention”
I don’t think winning your division has ever been a factor in mvp voting. Especially when people view the NFC as the tougher division and three out of the four teams in the NFC West are playoff bound.
FYI Rams made playoffs.
I think he meant eliminated from winning their division. (I was confused at first too)
The Rams have clinched a playoff spot and a currently the NFC 5 seed
I hope Vrabel gets coach of the year. I don’t believe there’s any real competition there, and I agree that Maye isn’t likely to get MVP unfortunately. Veteran’s preference.
Did anyone see refs helping the pats yesterday. I like to think I react strongly to missed calls whether it’s for another team or mine. Maybe the jets nastiness comes from the top.
“Moments after the crushing defeat, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn stepped to the podium and detonated a blistering condemnation that tore through the NFL within minutes.
“Let’s not insult anyone’s intelligence,” Glenn said, voice coiled with anger, eyes cutting through the room. “That game wasn’t won with execution — it was swallowed by chaos. Missed calls. Momentum yanked without explanation. Situations that vanish when accountability is required. That’s not football — that’s disorder parading as competition. Meanwhile, we’re out here trying to play the game the right way, not scraping by on whistles, confusion, and selective blindness.”
I’ll add that this could be AI generated. As an aside I knew AI would be misused the second I learned of it ….i suspect most folks did
I didn’t see any. Any calls against the Jets were LEGIT that I could see. Did they miss any that should have been against the Pats? Don’t know. Nothing jumped out at me, but I could have easily missed one or two.
I can smell the Facebook from this… absolutely AI generated slop. Do not, I repeat DO NOT believe ANYTHING from facebook that uses a quote. See how the AI writes it like some fan fiction in a book? No journalist would be writing crap like “voice coiled with anger, eyes cutting through the room.”
You can also just select a portion of a quote from these awful FB pages and paste it into search and you’ll see it reposted for hundreds of other teams for engagement. See here when I used a random sentence from what you pasted:
https://ibb.co/qzpjrwd
https://ibb.co/zV941FHd
Block these pages when you see them. That will tell the algorithm you don’t like them.
Thank you. I’m huge on blocking. About to go block.
Blocked.
Thanks, TK!
Don’t harm the messenger, but the Pats-Dolphins game IS on Fox this Sunday at 4:25.
Also, just for the record, the Super Bowl next year is on NBC.
I have no idea why Fox is suddenly televising Patriots games. I much prefer the usual CBS as I like their broadcast team much better. Oh well.
TK posted that last night so I’m calmed down some after seeing it would be in CBS
There’s a great chance the Pats rest their starters because the Broncos are favored over the Chargers and after the performance the Chargers put on this week – it seems like a natural conclusion for the Broncos to win and get the #1 seed, in fact I’d bet the Chargers rest their starters against the Broncos. Plus the Dolphins are going to be a tough game anyway now that they are actually trying and they’ve got a coach still trying to show out to make sure he’ll secure his job next year and that it was all Tua’s fault. lol
44 here.
To: Dave
Your comments regarding CMG, Verizon, and FOX are on the money. I received some second-hand info from someone in the industry who said CMG and Verizon far apart … for whatever that’s worth. It will only be resolved when someone blinks.
To: Philip
Switching to Comcast or any other carrier is a temporary solution which is certainly okay except that those carriers will eventually run into the same issues as Verizon and CMG at some point.
To: All
There are workarounds such as using an antenna and switching your TV to over-the-air which take 2 minutes. Some brands of TVs such as Samsung have their own TV app which carries FOX locally as well as other channels. Then there is always your local sports bar which most often uses satellite.
I just use a site called “stream east” (it’s those two words together and .ga after it – not .com) to watch virtually every football game since they make it impossible for me to watch the games I pay a fortune in cable bills for. I load up the game on my iphone and then just stream it to my apple tv. Easy peasy. 🙂
My apps are not working. I need a new tv and. But the free local worked well for me. I just won’t stop it and try to restart
GDPS has a decent set up for a decent NE Storm.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2025122912&fh=240&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
500MB would bring this up the coast. Only question would be how close to the coast it would be. VERY Cold high in place.
Interesting anyway. of course it is 10 days out and beyond any reasonable confidence level. Something to watch
As long as it doesn’t become a coastal hugger, we should be all set. 🙂
Of course now, will it verify? 😉
I’ll watch it hopefully go out to sea. lol
Yes, TK was correct. The Patriots game is on CBS. I checked a better source. Maybe I looked up the previous week or whatever.
Sorry Vicki. You should be all set. 🙂
TK said fox. Now I’m not sure
There is almost no snow in Swampscott.
Same here in Quincy other than parking lot piles.
SNOW is now gone here in JP. A few piles here and there.
I don’t want to get overly caught up in the hoopla about tomorrow’s wind, but am curious how it will match up with the rain/wind storm of a recent Friday (I believe) in Natick. There were a considerable number of trees down around here then and I am hoping tomorrow will have less damage.
Thanks.
Am a bit concerned about the same thing in sutton.
Not looking forward to MORE wind gusts tomorrow. Boston, the actual windy city.
The January 4th Patriots game is scheduled to be on FOX … at the moment. If you use Verizon, you will not be able to get FOX unless Verizon and CMG reach an agreement before then.
One thing that has not been mentioned is that the NFL can throw its weight around when it comes to airing games. They have contracts with networks but they have the ability to call shots too. It could show up on CBS
I’m seeing fox too.
44F and moderate rain.
38 and also moderate rain
I spoke to verizon and tried to call nfl corporate. Verizon offered me $5. I laughed. NFL have virtual reps only. I ended up emailing.
According to http://www.patriots.com the game will be at 4:25 pm on FOX.
If they don’t know the time and network then nobody does. 😉
I did see somewhere though that some markets will have the game on CBS. Don’t know if Boston area is included.
Thanks, TK.
Post-Christmas hangover. Not literally as I barely drink. Just an empty house feeling with both my children thousands of miles away. The world is still a very large place.
I am VERY grateful for their visits.
And it would all be harder without the Internet. Thank you, U.S. Army researchers.
It is a large place. Some of my family is in South Africa. (Not all of it, though, and I’m grateful that others are much closer.) Internet is certainly a game-changer.
All the best to you.
The cold air is very stubborn here. It’s currently 32 F and our driveway is still iced over.
And I blame Verizon!
🙂
🙂
Love it.
Thanks TK. Hope everyone is having a great Christmas/holiday season!!
The wind tonight/tomorrow looks pretty run of the mill by winter standards. Make no mistake, it’ll be a frigid and very gusty day tomorrow, and the winds will last the entire day and be very noticeable. But it’ll be frequent 30-45 mph gusts and only isolated 50+ with no real “surprise” potential. More of an advisory level event than a warning level one, which for the most part matches up with the latest NWS headlines.
Thank you WxWatcher.
I noticed that Mountain High had to close as they lost all of their snow due to RAIN and WARMTH. I guess this must happen fairly routinely.
Thanks TK. Rain just tapered off here. 42 degrees. Surprisingly we still have 100 percent snowcover. This should be bulletproof once it refreezes tonight.
Not so sure about walking the shore tomorrow AM. might be a little too slick.
Radar from Matt Noyes’ site.
https://maps.zoomradar.net/?key=a95DAsMOUHT0NGY
You can animate it.
TK did say Fox for the game. 🙂
That is what it will be on, due to “cross-flexing” which is one of the terms used for shuffling things in the name of ratings. Without this, the rule of thumb is the network is determined by the visiting team’s conference. In this case, the Patriots are the visiting team, and AFC, and by that rule it would be CBS. However, due to the “cross-flex” I mentioned, this game was given to the Fox network.
Yes you did. As did verizon
They can take that cross flex and stick it……..
Come on over to Comcast/Xfinity Vicki. It’s the only way to see the Patriots game on Sunday. I suppose you could wait and see if both sides negotiate. You probably won’t need any techs to come to your house for the switch.
Just call.
Comcast may have the game, but as a company they aren’t any better than Verizon. 🙂 🙂
Whatever makes folks most comfortable.
Philip…I’ve said a few times. I only have spectrum as an option. But even if I had others, fios has always been excellent. Jumping carriers is never a grand idea.
The amount of people out on social media going nutso over deterministic runs in the greater-than-300-hour range is hilarious. This doesn’t work, yet they can’t stop doing it. HAHA!
Let them!!! We all know better, even though we take a look. 🙂
Oh I always take a look too. We just know what is worth what, and what isn’t worth a thing. 🙂 It’s a well-educated crowed here. 🙂
Without looking at any specific event out in the long range, it does appear to get a bit more active, doesn’t it?
WxW answers this just below.
🙂 thank you.
So a couple weeks ago I gave a pretty doom and gloom assessment on SNE snow chances over the second half of Dec and into Jan as the raging -PNA dominates the pattern. And I think that’s generally panning out ok, with a lack of “big ticket” potential and only clippers trying to keep SNE alive in the snow department.
We’re still in that same pattern for awhile longer. And while much of the US has been very warm, that has decidedly not been the case in SNE, which was something else that was pointed out as a possibility with this pattern.
There’s changes ahead though. That big ticket potential is going to come out of the woodwork. Possibly as early as the second week of Jan, probably more likely beyond then.
I’ve long been looking for this winter to follow a 2014-2015 esque script after last year paralleled 2013-2014 pretty well (other than most of the snow chances missing the mark). And I think that is very much on track. And (FWIW) we’re likely heading for an El Nino event by mid to late 2026…. which we also saw in 2016 following the 13-14, 14-15 winter sequence 🙂
Short form? Despite the lackluster current pattern, bet the over on SNE snow this winter.
I cut the cord about a year ago. I use an app called TiviMate I can watch just about any tv station in the United States and the world via a fire stick.
So your saying there is a chance Ryan Hanrahan
If you hate snow you may want to avert your eyes from next week’s jet stream pattern.
Significant Greenland blocking could be enough to bring stormy weather to the northeastern United State. A couple chances for snow are beginning to show up in the forecast!
I think he may be jumping the gun on when that chance goes up, and when it’s more likely to go up sits in a region where things are much less easy to pin down.
Agree. I see people looking at next week, and it’s not a zero chance (of a big East Coast snowstorm) but IMO it’s not the best one that will present itself. But like you say, while I too think the better chances are beyond then, obviously there’s more that can “go wrong” looking that far out 🙂
If nothing pans out next week I am happy last Friday into Saturday I had my biggest snowfall of 9 inches in almost four years.
I’ll believe it when I see it….say a few days from an alleged event.
Look at least 10 days out for “possible” real action.
Perhaps a preview or 2 before that.
The Hanrahan preview #1
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025122912&fh=192&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
#2
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025122912&fh=252&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
I can see chance for things to go wrong with either of those scenarios.
#3???? not so much
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025122912&fh=330&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
A full 10+ days out, this is the first BIGGIE I have seen appear. Will it happen? Who knows. For me. just a time period to monitor for now until I see support from other models.
But I posted this earlier. As long as we are talking about speculation, gimmie this….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025122912&fh=360&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Just speaking of that map as it appears (knowing it’s a deep medium range projection) I’d like to see a bit more to that high to the north there.
I understand, but in 10 days perhaps it will be 1030 or more?
OR not even be there at all. So you are saying as depicted
reasonable chance it would hug the coast for a snow to rain situation ASSUMING it were to materialize and that is a big IF. On the other hand it is near ZERO cold for SNE and below up North, so could be interesting (AGAIN IF IF IFIFIFIFIFIFIF)
🙂
Given that concern, doesn’t that map look pretty? 🙂
Does to me.
Beautiful look 🙂
Honestly havent been paying a ton of attention to the January pattern as I have been busy with the holidays (and recovering from the flu) but after looking at some of the ensemble runs today, it’s a great look and definitely got my attention!
Judah buckling up as well…
Judah Cohen
@judah47
Dec 28
Models are trending towards the trifecta of high latitude blocking with simultaneous Greenland, Alaskan and Ural blocking for second & third weeks of January with Canadian model (my new favorite model) leading the way but also predicted by our AI model for mid-month. Buckle up!
https://x.com/judah47/status/2005309721688015158?s=20
More seat belts getting buckled….
Jeff Berardelli
@WeatherProf
22h
If you like cold and snow in the East, the pattern the next 2 weeks is text book!
Watch as a Giant Greenland Block intensifies and retrogrades across the Canadian Tundra through the period, forcing cold air deep south and trapping it in the Eastern US. This pattern may even have potential for Southern ❄️ ! We’ll see.
For the layman, (relative) warm blocking in the Arctic “displaces” the tropospheric Polar Vortex, forcing cold southward into the US.
For the weather nerds out there, the high latitude block reaches 4.5 Standard Deviations / Sigma from the mean next weekend on the European model. Easily a record. It may not verify, but if it’s even in the ballpark, it’s on like Donkey Kong! Buckle up!!
https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2005414331710669218?s=20
John Homenuk
@jhomenuk
Dec 28
Day 10 Composite 500hPa Height Anomalies from todays 12z ECMWF EPS are astonishing both in regard to the intensity of high latitude blocking and the individual analogs – many of which are centered around memorable periods of winter weather in the Eastern US.
https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/2005394986641273243?s=20
Where have I read these comments before. Hmm. I’ve learned to take it with a grain of salt. Perhaps it’s cuz I’m getting old. lol. Again, if the signs are still out there in a week or so, it’ll have my attention.
I’m with you. Looks promising, but I want to see it delivered!!!
BUT, it has my interest and attention. I shall be watching.
I know you will 🙂
Judah’s new favorite model, whichever one delivers the most snow to the eastern US….
As far as I know, he’s never been a fan of the Canadian. 🙂 Until now…
Sorry to be so quiet lately. I have been in a period mourning for my beloved NAM.
Made a lot of money in the day explaining its monstrous convective feedback issues, its once upon a time cold bias, and of course its beloved over amplification.
Time will heal. 😉
We’ll have to see what the RRFS has in store for us. The only real bias I’ve noticed recently is a tendency to throw clipper tracks too far south, especially in the colder set-ups.
“Generally” speaking, clippers don’t like to track too far South. There are, of course, exceptions.
We hit the TRIFECTA today with comments from
TK, WxWatcher and JMA!!! LOVE IT.
We all enjoy comments from all 3 of you!!!!
I was waiting for a comment like that. Wasn’t it recently that TK said something like totally disregard the CANADIAN?????
Mark how much snow did you get out in Coventry last week?
A little less than 5″ here in Coventry. We got 4″ real quick in two hours and then it was just light snow and snow showers the rest of the night with only another <1" accumulating. Much of the Hartford area though, and certainly points south and west, received 6"+ though.
And yes, I will have my for-fun, partly-but-not-nearly-completely-science-based predictions for 2026 coming up on New Year’s Day. 🙂
Wondering if there will be changes . I know a long way to go but I like my low number
Hard to say. That’s the thing with snow. 1 or 2 storms can make a drastic difference.
Amen to that. Looks like we have some watching to do, even if nothing materializes.
Will that system down the coast appear on the 0Z run? or will it disappear from Dr. Cohen’s new favorite model????
🙂 🙂 🙂
True
TK I look forward to reading those predictions on January 1st like I do every year.
🙂
Rain is done and it did its job. Snow is long gone, till the next time, IF there is a next time. 🙂
It’s never gonna snow again Dave! It’s over! Winter’s done! Bring on the HHH! 😉
he he he he
Of course you know I’m just messing around with a comment like that. 🙂 🙂 🙂
btw, you can keep the HHHH!!!
Yesterday (during the day) was Gorgeous!!! a 10 for Winter
I’d much prefer yesterday to any HHH day.
Hmmm I added an H. Make that one for HORRIBLE or HORENDOUS
It works for you. 😛
Wait! There’s still MLK Weekend. 😉
My prediction is that MLK Weekend will be sunny with record cold. 😉
But I can’t say anymore because my “predictions” have to wait until January 1. So that’s the only preview. 😉
Let me guess…followed by a widespread RAIN event. 😉
Good writeup from Tomer…
Tomer Burg
@burgwx
Dec 28
Remember back when extended-range ensembles were consistently signaling warmer-than-average temperatures in the East Coast in January with a persistent ridge? This signal has completely flipped with a cold & likely snowy January incoming.
So how did this happen? As I speculated 2 weeks ago, models routinely under-estimating southeast Canada troughing (which also led to yesterday’s NE US snowstorm instead of the originally expected mild ending to the week) resulted in more poleward diabatic ridge amplification over the NW Atlantic. Given that a high-latitude block was already situated near Scandinavia, this facilitated a westward retrogression of the block into Greenland.
The final piece of the puzzle was the combination of today’s Great Lakes cyclone & an Arctic Ocean cyclone (AC). Earlier models had the Great Lakes cyclone weaker & more progressive, and the AC closer to Alaska, shunting the Greenland ridge east and reinforcing a western trough. Latest model runs now show more separation between the two, allowing the Greenland block to retrograde into Nunavut (i.e. west-based -NAO) and trap today’s cyclone near the Hudson Bay.
https://x.com/burgwx/status/2005323058978979994?s=20
Back in my private sector days, I used to type this phrase, when applicable, to some of my coworkers: “I’ll have Nunavut!” (don’t think about it too hard) 🙂
Haha
Lol!
🙂 😀
Today’s 8-14 CPC shows near normal temps and precipitation through January 12. That’s about as decent opportunity for snow as you can get this time of year. These days we have to take what we can get.
Of course ideally I would like the CPC showing well below normal temps and well above normal precipitation! 🙂
I wouldn’t go too much by that outlook, although most often if you have well below normal temps, you’re dry. An exception was 2015.
Michigan absolutely crushed from today’s storm. Take a look at Downtown Marquette!
https://x.com/JimCantore/status/2005742302187380889?s=20
Perhaps a preview of the scene in Downtown Boston in a few weeks…. 🙂
Wow. And I’ll start looking for volunteers (I pay) to clear my car please
18Z GFS now getting in on the East coast winter storm fun next week….
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025122918&fh=246&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Verbatim that cold high to the north is too strong on this run and this ends up a big snowstorm for the mid Atlantic, dropping 1-2 feet.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025122918&fh=270&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=snku_acc-imp&m=gfs
From Pete for next week
Some years, you couldn’t buy a ❄️ or a spell..other years, well. This will be an interesting 7-10 days. We stay cold and storms develop pretty close offshore. Wouldn’t take much to get caught up in one. Eyes are on next week.
https://ibb.co/9kqvHtwz
https://ibb.co/BK7QjNhs