DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)
A major winter storm dumped significant snow on our region Sunday from mid morning to late at night, at which time much of the region saw a shut-down of accumulating snow for a while due to a dry slot working in from the west. As of 3:30 a.m., there are ocean-effect snow showers ongoing along much of the MA coast, with some of them working a little further inland from Metro Boston to the Cape Cod Canal. During the heavier precipitation, some sleet worked into the South Coast region as was expected, and pockets of sleet mixing with the snow made it up into parts of Plymouth County. A coastal front was present from just west of Boston up into Essex County MA and near the NH Seacoast to the north, and down into southeastern MA inland from the South Shore to the south, but early this morning it is already pushing to the southeast and the colder air is returning to places that warmed up (relatively speaking) into the 20s (some lower 30s Cape Cod / Islands), while temperatures struggled out of the single digits into the teens during most of the day and evening over the large area to the west of this coastal front – a very cold winter storm for much of the region indeed, unlike what we see in most of our winter events. Today, we’ll still be dealing with the storm system as the primary low pressure area still has to pass by to our south and we’ll be in its circulation, along with the upper level low driving the entire system. Ocean-effect snow can go on for a good portion of the day, and will focus mostly on the South Shore where up to several additional inches of snow can accumulate. There is also some wrap-around moisture on the back side of our low pressure area that has to move through much of the region later today into this evening before moving out to the east, and this can also produce up to a couple additional inches of accumulation, so my general thought process on this is 1 to 3 total additional inches of accumulation through this evening in the majority of the region, with up to 1 inch additional nearer the South Coast. We finally bid this system goodbye tonight, and then settle into a cold and dry pattern through Friday, with just a few snow showers potentially occurring on Wednesday as a disturbance moves through.
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Additional accumulation up to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere. Highs 18-25. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. A lingering snow flurry possible. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 19-26. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 17-24. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 4-11. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 16-23. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to +4. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 15-22. Wind NW under 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31 – FEBRUARY 4)
Storm potential exists in the January 31 to February 2 time frame. Fair weather follows that threat. Temperatures below to much below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
Another potential winter weather threat around February 5-6. Quieter pattern develops thereafter but temperature remain below normal.
https://stormhq.blog/2026/01/25/weekly-outlook-january-26-february-1-2026/
Thanks TK! Hope you made it through the storm without incident – please be safe if you need to be out & about later today.
Thank you TK! Still light to very light snow.
Thanks TK.
Still snowing here in JP.
Must be over 20 by now. At around 8:30 we had around 13-14. Here are the current numbers, always check the time stamp to make sure updated.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=box&issuedby=BOX&product=pns
The date and time stamps are important but everyone should also watch out for duplicates which appear somewhat frequently during snow storms.
In ESE Danvers in Essex County, there is a 4:17 PM and a 10 PM report. The other issue is that are reports for different sections of a city. Again in Danvers there is an ESE and a WNW report.
Thanks TK.
❄️
Also based on the 1 AM update Logan was close to one of the highest so very curious where this ends up.
Gloucester is the jackpot so far at 21 inches.
They could get 3-6″ more.
Logan will come in over 20-22 shortly I am betting.
Thanks TK !
We’re at 32F, but Hanover to my northwest by a handful of miles, dropped to 22F about 45 mins ago.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2026012611&fh=15&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
TK has it well discussed, here’s the 11z HRRR take on additional snowfall today.
I shaved 1 inch off the top of that initial discussion but basically the same idea! I just don’t think anybody will really add 4 more inches today except the most isolated locations, so I changed my “2-4” and “up to 2” into “1 to 3” and “up to 1”. Virtually no difference.
That’s good, there’s plenty enough already 🙂
Good morning and thank you Tk.
15 here, made it to 28 shortly after midnight, then temp crashed.
Ocean: 40
WORDLE: FAIL
I know Hadi says more, but I think we have like 14-16 inches here in JP. Was snowing at 4AM, but not now, unless there is an occasional flake I didn’t see.
Nice storm for sure, especially since we haven’t seen one in 4 years. Epic? Nope.
we’ll see how much gets added today. We perhaps had a 2 hour period of near 2 inches per hour, the rest of the time around 1 inch per hour or less. Very difficult to have true heavy snow.
Rant: when we get snow storms it is often mentioned heavy snow. Some temper that with snow, heavy at times. In truth most (not all) snow storms are actually light to moderate snow and not very often heavy snow.
RE: Patriots
They gave us a scare and had us on the edge of our seats, but in the end they came through and got the job done.
Vrabel coached the hell out of that game and Maye made some mighty smart decisions.
DOWN THE ROAD:
Fwiw, the Euro has 2 more foot+ Storms in the pipe line. Let’s see if they materialize.
I don’t think any of us said that there would be heavy snow for the entire storm. We gave periods of time when it was most likely that the heaviest snow would occur across the region (1 inch per hour, 2 inches per hour, isolated instances of 3 inch per hour snowfall rates). This is exactly how it occurred and how my snowfall forecast ranges were general realized. So I’m not really sure what the problem is here.
NOT a problem with anything you said or posted.
In fact, you had the MOST accurate forecast of all.
No hype, just the facts.
I have a problem with some of the local mets and how they portrayed it. No names shall be mentioned. And then the media hype, forget about it!!!
And likely my biggest problem (once again), I bought into the MODEL HYPE and ALL of those kuchera totals that were all basically a BIG FAT LIE!!!
Don’t get me wrong, I am thrilled with this event. I was just expecting more…..I probably should NOT look at the kuchera maps. 🙂 🙂 🙂
They have limitations in larger events which are amplified in colder setups.
Biggest issue is a mis-simulation of the moisture profile causing an overestimate of snow totals when put through the Kuchera method programming. This is why you didn’t see me bite the bait on the 28″ and 30″ totals.
Sorry about the fail, I was lucky to have a 5
Nice. I picked the wrong words, is all. Not upset at this fail. 🙂
And, I probably wasn’t in the mood to play anyway.
So tell us how you really feel JPD! 🙂
I usually do.
Thank you TK!
Wordle: 4
Very nice, Sue !
Excellent!!!
Maybe there was heavier precip down on the south shore.
It was heavy snow frequently.
I know I myself at first, thought, it’s not heavy because it was fine snow. I think I associate heavy snow with those big flakes, when you look up at the day sky and you can even see millions of flakes against the sky.
But the thickness of those fine flakes was incredible and the tree hundreds of yards across the street was fuzzy and the shear amount that fell in a 12 hr period tells me there was times, multiple times of heavy snow.
Also, what’s the density of the snow for areas like?
We don’t have 15” of powder.
The top half has snow making capability and the very top is now very wet, so, a lot of precip fell yesterday. Even well below 32F, this won’t suddenly compact to 5” 🙂
Not here. DRY all the way. A heavier power on top. I am sure the bottom has compacted some. the wipe away method likely would yield a higher total than the traditional stick a ruler or yardstick in when it is done.
No, not at all. I look at the accumulations. IF not accumulating at 2 or more inches per hour (maybe down to 1.5 inches), it AIN’T HEAVY snow, period!!!
Fair enough 🙂
Moderate snow = 1 inch per hour.
I have heard so many mets say heavy snow and 1 inch per hour in the same breath. DRIVES ME INSANE!!!!!!
I don’t mind them saying snow moderate to heavy at times, because that is more realistic. Don’t say heavy IF it is going to be moderate. Gimmie a break!!!!! (not you TK)
Update: Boston = 18.6”
With at least a couple more inches expected later today, I would say that a 20-inch snowfall is inevitable.
Ok, I can buy that. Thanks Philip.
Thanks, TK.
The other day while running along the Charles I saw the squirrels gathering provisions – their version of the mad dash to the grocery store – and racing up and down the trees, acorns in mouths and sometimes a little snowball. I saw one come out of her den in the tree. She had probably done round one of her shopping list. Now, I imagine they’re staying put in their homes for a bit.
There’s no question that squirrels and other animals have an instinct that alerts them to weather events. These instinctive models, if you will, have stood the test of time. No instrumentation and computers needed. It’s pretty incredible.
I hit the LIKE BUTTON!
Thanks TK
Philip thanks for the update on Boston with the storm total so far.
NY got 11.4 from this storm
Snowfall Standings
BOS 29.5
NY 21.1
Definitely over 14-16 here. I took a few non scientific measurements before getting ready for work and I had around 17-19 most areas.
Great storm nonetheless!
I didn’t measure 14-16, that was my look out the window guesstament. 18 sounds good. thanks.
Yes it was a nice storm. My expectations were way too high.
A fatal flaw of mine. 🙂 🙂 🙂 Explained above somewhere. 🙂
Taking a closer look at what’s feeling
I think it might be freezing mist when it’s light and when a wave of slightly better precip comes through, it turns to a misty wave of snow grains.
The snow piles are massive, owing to the thickness and content of the top half.
Haven’t seen these pile heights in a while !!!!!
Falling
In fact as I hit enter, a heavier wave of snow is falling now and the visibility has briefly crashed.
14 to 16 inches here in Billerica so an additional 2 to 5 will get me in 16 to 20 range. Imagine if that dry slot didnt co.e in so quickly
Still flaky here on the South Shore. I don’t believe it every really completely stopped snowing.
Local radar
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Precip moving west to east fairly quickly
OE just to the South of the city. We were in it for a time.
Even the Dunkin Donuts in Newton is closed this morning.
0Z Euro for 2/1
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2026012600&fh=150
2/6
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2026012600&fh=282
Euro run total 10:1 snow (Of course this also shows the snow from 7PM last night onward)
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2026012600&fh=360&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
And NOT all of those would be at 10:1.
Look at that gradient btwn the 970s mb low and the high to the north.
Full moon with 11+ ft tides in the morning.
Taken verbatim, this could have a MAJOR coastal flood threat.
Something to watch for sure. Wouldn’t be something
IF both of these verified?????? WOW! Long way to go and much can go wrong, but both of these are in TK’s watch window. 🙂
If I heard correctly, 19.8” is #10 on Boston’s list of January snowstorms. With the current 18.6” so far, that #10 is certainly within reach.
The 12z HRRR has the 1-3 or 2-4 (Kuchera) for today but has 3-5 and a small area of 6+ on the south shore, just inland. Pembroke, Hanover, etc
6+ is kuchera amts
The number of times the Malcolm Butler interception will be replayed this next two weeks across America. The over / under is 1 million which I actually do not think is an exaggeration.
Can’t tell you how many times it was on this AM.
Dumbest play call of Pete Caroll’s career.
I’d rather view Drake Maye’s touch down run from yesterday!!
That was a pretty sight to behold!!! A designed QB run. Awesome!!! At lest Vrabel and McDaniels are not afraid to turn
Maye loose at times!!!
My wife is worried about me because I was yelling at my laptop. 🙂
Someone sent in this photo of “snow piles reaching up to the roof of her home.” That pile is from a plow. If you get down on the ground you can make it seem like the pile reaches anything!
https://ibb.co/sv2BKLrS
I think I’m OK now…
I got Wordle in 5.
nice Wordle. I missed the train!!
I’m greedy
Bring on next weekend
🙂 🙂 🙂
Right there with you!
Some decent OE going on across the South Shore.
North Shore as well.
BOS 18.6
ORH 18.6
According to Cindy on Ch. 5 regarding next weekend’s storm:
1. More wind expected (coastal flooding)
2. May stall for awhile into Monday
And the WANKER said SUPPRESSED!!!!
The non mets on X saying blizzard for next Sunday into Monday.
A nice weekend storm. I’d say we got about 15 inches give or take but with the drifting I could be off by a few inches. Got up around 7:30 and shoveled (I’m not supposed to with my shoulders being the way they are) a path and open area for the pup (Rosie) to her business…of course she wanted to play :). We have a power shovel (older model) and I’ll get out with that later this morning. A lite snow falling here right now…could be be snizzle.
Just finished cleaning up. Twisted myself into a pretzel just to measure a generous 12.5” here in Sharon. Again, not buying any wraparound snow but I am encouraged to see the storm pipeline is strong!
Morning I have not ventured out yet but we are completely buried . At 10 last night I saw wankum say 16 for pembroke & it was still snowing , from the looks of it I’m thinking we have 20+ here easily . It’s 31 degrees here now .
Up to 17 from earlier 14.
My Son has been shoveling and clearing my stairs and walk. He doesn’t want his old man to have a hear attack!!
Anyway, He concurs with Hadi’s 17-19. We’re saying a solid 18 in JP. could be very similar to Logan’s 18.6. Tough to get a totally accurate measurement.
Thanks TK.
16” here in Coventry CT. My snow guess was 17.5”and if the HRRR is correct, we may get there later today. I need about 3” more for Worcester and Boston to get to my ~22” predictions there. Nice storm!
I posted some 0z models and a couple tweets from Mets near the end of the last blog on the upcoming storm threat next weekend and the general pattern in mid February. It’s 2015-esque. I joke about the roof rakes but if you have a relatively flat roof, may want to consider purchasing one if you don’t have one already.
The coastal storm next weekend is now showing up on all the models/ensembles. Some are a sideswipe or miss but the ones that hit, hit pretty big. Another week of model fatigue upcoming….
That’s what we live for….BRING IT ON!!!!!
Biggest snowstorm in almost 5 years in CT. Saw BDL with a total of 15.6. The last time BDL got a foot of snow was February 1st 2nd 2021.
There are up to 16″ now as of the 7AM report.
Impressed with consistent OE for the South shore.
It looks like the snow explodes once the flow hits the coastal front and moves up over it in INLAND South Shore all the way out to almost 95/495.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
that has to be adding up.
Most snow here I’ve seen in years . Was going to try & do it myself but caring for my wife & being completely run down I’m having it plowed . We have 24 inches guaranteed without measuring
O.E.S.
What does OES mean
Ocean Effect Snow
lol thanks
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KENX/standard
Precip streaks in NE PA hinting at piece or a couple pieces of energy that will overlap plenty of moisture left in the column that should reignite some light snows as the day progresses.
It has started snow here again. Another coating – 1 inch might happen.
Thank .TK. I hate not having an exact exact measurement but I’m not terribly confident in this. I’m measuring 15.4
Wordle was a 6.
but you got it.
❤️
Snow totals from the NWS:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=box&issuedby=BOX&product=pns
Not sure why a lot of the reports from late last night dropped off, including mine. Going to resubmit it now.
Nice list. Thank you.
For the airports:
BDL 16.0″
BOS 18.6″
ORH 18.6″
TF Green 13.3″
Jackpot area seems to be the North Shore with a lot of 21-22″ amounts
Question regarding these reports. I get what a trained spotter is, but what does amateur radio mean? And to be honest, the amateur radio reports I have seen for Amesbury, almost always seem inaccurate.
Amateur Radio is also known as HAM radio. It’s like one step up from the old CB radio. You need some training and a license to operate your station.
Boston harbor buoy down to 29F from 33F and nearby Scituate down to up 20s
Coastal front very close bow. Local airport has 33F, nothing is really melting though.
JP Dave … in case you missed my reply regarding the Kuchera-using models.. here it is…
They have limitations in larger events which are amplified in colder setups.
Biggest issue is a mis-simulation of the moisture profile causing an overestimate of snow totals when put through the Kuchera method programming. This is why you didn’t see me bite the bait on the 28″ and 30″ totals.
You sure didn’t. You were spot on. Pete B. didn’t either and I was wondering why his numbers were lower.
I learned a lesson with this one. Thank you
We got about 18 inches. That is a BIG snow storm for sure!
So, I am good. Many thanks
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026012612&fh=150&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
I’m hoping for more snow and a lot more snow for those who it makes very happy.
But I can’t root to receive it in this form.
A lot of people at the immediate coastline and for that matter, some miles inland would have a massive and long lasting negative impact if a 962 mb bomb takes this track.
More snow, YES, just not like this !!!!!
Quite overdone on the low.
Yeah probably will be more like 970mb 🙂
That’s not too shabby!!!!
Or weaker…
I hope so and I know your correct 🙂
I have to agree. My thoughts go back to 2015. Everyone was rooting for more. And I both understand and never fault anyone. But we were driving Mac in and out of Boston and it added a whole other layer. So it was hard to listen to. That was on Me
Now I am fine not being able to go anywhere, but I know others are where we were.
Again. And I absolutely understand Tom’s view, This is just me.
12z ICON with a blizzard this weekend:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&rh=2026012612&fh=150&dpdt=&mc=
Would like to see that come a little closer for me but still plenty of time 🙂 Delivers another 20″ to Boston and probably 5 foot snow drifts…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012612&fh=168&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=snku_024h-imp&m=icon
6z Euro EPS Ensemble Mean for the weekend threat….
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_01/index.png.b4be3385bb8b899625da0aaadfb8df65.png
My goodness, that is a STRONG signal. Lots of coastal bombs in there tucked in tight.
Jan 4, 2018 …..
I think that was the last sub 970 mb bomb.
These are exactly etched in my brain for the following …..
The height of the tide was 10.2 ft that day.
People were shocked by the flooding, in fact I know marshfield for sure, they were rescuing people, Quincy I think too and that was when flooding went into parts of Boston that hasn’t seen it there since.
Next Sunday’s high tide is 11.0 ft in the morning, so I really worry when I see these simulations because I know/saw what that Jan 4 system did and this tide is almost going to be 1.0 ft higher.
I think Boston measured a 4 ft storm surge.
It was scheduled to be 10.2 ft and came in nearly at 14.2 ft
If I recall, the measured tide height beat the max height on the blizzard of 78. The jan 4, 2018 system only affected 1 tide where the legendary 78 system hit multiple cycles.
6z Euro operational is an absolute behemoth for next weekend as well. Borderline scary if something like came to fruition with what we already have on the ground…
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2026012606&fh=144
You know that would change to rain.
As depicted with the 500 mb and 250 mb flow with that run. Of course future runs could change and the ensemble mean is more off shore than this is depicted.
…after a LOT of snow. Which would be a disaster for structural damage risk.
Of course, I am sure that model is overamped.
Yup!!! and imagine rain on top of that combined with the wind. I can’t imagine the damage. At least keep the rain away. we can deal with it better.
Strong words from Eric Fisher on the threat as well…
Eric Fisher
@ericfisher
51m
We could be in trouble this weekend with another blizzard possible
Getting into structural/property damage territory if this comes to fruition, aside from just nowhere to put it
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/2015806420986241286?s=20
Yup 🙁 🙁 🙁
My issues with this…
1) This was not a blizzard, so we can’t have “another blizzard” even if it turns out to be one.
2) It’s too early to be using strong terms like that. The proper way to phrase it right now at this stage is: “We’re watching another potential winter storm.” The language you choose is IMPORTANT in communication.
I’ll freeze and put multiple fans in the windows, facing SE, pushing this one OTS 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Would any of the flood waters reach your house? Hope not.
Never has thankfully because I have the South River marsh ecosystem at the end of my road which really helps out.
But up the end of my street, I’ve seen the water onto the road.
It’s devastating though for Brant rock, parts of green harbor and other areas of marshfield as well as other coastal towns.
In Brant rock village, that 2018 system had the water chest deep and they sent in military vehicles to get people out of there.
And then verbatim, this would be a wet snow with winds 40-60 mph, which was so nice about this storm, topped off at a reasonable 35 mph gust or 2
I remember that one for sure.
I am not as familiar with that as you but certainly remember it. I’m more familiar with Humarock and see now yearly flooding there
12Z GFS has next week’s storm. but off shore
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2026012612&fh=165&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
12Z GDPS has it as a super bomb and a direct hit!
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2026012612&fh=150&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
955mb!! Cat 3 hurricane strength and 1-2 feet of snow.
Scary to see all the models depicting a system this powerful at 6 days out. I’m sure they are overdone but even a system half that powerful would be problematic with the snow we have on the ground now and the coastal flood risk that Tom pointed out.
Hoping for offshore. Sorry dave… but the way some of these things are modeling it – I’d rather a miss. Another one like this previous one is fine I guess but not massively damaging winds and snow combined. No thank you.
I hear you and understand. No matter what we wish, we’re going to get whatever we get. 🙂 🙂
Ditto, Dr!
Just finished cleanup here in Amesbury. Mercy there were some drifts. I got somewhere between 20 and 23 inches. Hard to get an accurate measurement.
I shoveled my roof because a massive drift formed. After seeing this thread and then checking the models, glad I did. There was one drift that was three feet deep. Insanity. My roof rake wasn’t getting to it well enough so I broke out the ladder. Dangerous? Sure. Get the job done? Yes.
Coastal front just went through and a fine mist of snow has developed
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Also can see the reinvigoration of snow coming in from the west with the upper feature.
Snowing lightly again here now.
6z Euro AI with a coastal hugger and track over Cape Cod…
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026012606&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Meanwhile 12z UKMET is weaker and a miss off shore.
Still plenty of time to track this one…
12z GFS AI well off shore.
Seems like its all or nothing right now. To phase or not to phase…
The UKMET didn’t get the memo
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=prateptype_ukmo-imp&rh=2026012612&fh=135&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
Ryan Hanrahan’s early thoughts on the weekend POTENTIAL
Strong signals for a possible nor’easter this weekend.
The storm looks powerful, but the track is still uncertain — and that makes all the difference.
Impacts could range from minimal to a significant snowstorm.
Too early to worry. We’ll keep you posted.
I wouldn’t exactly say it is too early to worry. We can worry and watch. Better to be worried and watching closely and prepare than to stick one’s head in the sand and wish it away.
Different approach than Eric F there.
Thought the same. I’m telling people to make extra room while shoveling just in case so they have an area to move more snow.
Also, keep this in mind with the GFS…it had this last storm modeled well south and a complete miss initially. And was the last model to catch on with the north trend. A met on American Weather just mentioned this:
“GFS tends to be too far south and east with developing low pressures with Arctic boundaries around. GFS tends to develop them more towards the warmer side of the boundary (or a bit south and east of the boundary) when the reality is they tend to develop right along the Arctic boundary. Models can struggle with Arctic boundaries because the depth of the Arctic cold is on the shallower side”
Indeed to, if you look at the 12z GEFS, many ensemble members are stronger and further NW than the mean….
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2026012612&fh=138
Moderate snow has recommended.
Visibility is low, temp has fallen !
recommended?
Started up again 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
Oh I knew what you meant. It’s funny how our brains do things like that. Happens to me all the time!!! I was just messing with you.
You had me laughing 🙂
EURO AI for weekend
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2026012612&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
That would be impressive for wind and QPF in the eastern third of mass
Snowing here. nice steady light snow.
Same here
Thanks TK, and props to you on great forecasting with this storm, especially the medium and longer range pattern recognition.
As far as I can tell, it absolutely appeared to behave as expected. I think there were some areas further south into the mid-Atlantic where the warm air aloft did overperform and cut down totals a bit due to more sleet. There were some crazy sleet observations with this storm. Sleet with surface temperatures in the single digits in some cases!
Not that there should really be any “underwhelm-ment”, but I’d put forward a pretty simple explanation for why you don’t really see any jackpot 24”+ type totals out there. It was a pretty weak surface low, and the precipitation was driven purely by warm advection as opposed to the more dynamic effects you get in a rapidly deepening coastal low. One of the consequences of that is a lack of pronounced banding features. You end up with more uniform totals (and an easier forecast) as opposed to a strongly banded Nor’easter where one town may have 24” and the next one over may have 12”. It also explains why there was more in the way of moderate snow with only more brief/local bursts of truly “heavy snow”. Of course, this was all expected, but just highlighting the difference between a somewhat less “dynamic” system such as this and what would be a much more dynamic system like the potential Nor’easter next weekend…
Thank you WXWatcher. That all makes perfect sense.
Hit or miss, as WxWatcher points out above, the 500 mb trof/closes low and other upper levels, like the 850 mb low on these explosive runs look incredibly deep and strong.
Wrap around snow has started.
Euro has next Sunday’s system with a closed low at
500MB and 300MB. Most interesting, but looks to wander
a bit off shore. Waiting on a panel or 2. 🙂
Euro BOMB is off shore for weekend. Still lots of time
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026012612&fh=156&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
12z Euro with another coastal bomb but this run is more off shore and would be a sideswipe of some snow and wind for SE MA:
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026012612&fh=150&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
3-5″ on the Cape and 9″ ACK on that run.
Kicked back up here again.
https://weather.us/radar-us/massachusetts/reflectivity/KBOX.html#play-0-9-5
Brief but moderate blob approaching Boston
Light snow here.
Now moderate … sort of a band.
Pats are a 5 point underdog … just what I want the Seahawks to believe.
From Eric Fisher about weekend storm potential
Could it still slide south and east of us? Yes that’s possible. But I would focus on snow removal/clearing vents and making space just in case this week. A roof raking not a bad idea either, but be safe if trying that
Thanks, TK!
Thanks to everyone here who posts and posted info about the storm and weather in general each day!
And, thanks to you, Philip, for your daily count! I am glad you can reset it to “1”!
13″ here at Taunton/Westside.
13.6″ at the National Weather Service/Norton in the Industrial Park, Norton, off 495.
12z Euro EPS Ensemble Mean lows:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_01/index6.png.5dac9cba45d732eb9086af6a27185efc.png
Ensemble Mean QPF with the heaviest stuff just offshore:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_01/Jan26_12zEPS156.png.ea37096428c86e38576c85b7cb8577bf.png
12z Canadian Ensemble Mean low tracks:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_01/sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.png.257516f086764de882a528678541c93c.png
12z GEPS Canadian Ensemble Mean QPF:
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2026_01/qpf_024h-mean-imp.us_ne.png.86b9835dca27d4704b29c3792a3fa7e5.png
Last Saturday, as I was checking on the weather conditions in Nashville, I found this article about the Waffle House Index.
“First, there is the well-known Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale. Then there is what he calls the “Waffle House Index.”:
https://www.wafflehouse.com/how-to-measure-a-storms-fury-one-breakfast-at-a-time/
We’re going to be watching this all week.
IF and I say IF this hits you could have a lot of areas in SNE with close to if not 3 over 3 feet of snow combined between the two storms.
There very well may be 3 storms altogether.
1. This one
2. January 31-February 1-2
3. January 5-6
Do you mean February 5-6?
Yes. Sorry about that Longshot. Thanks.
3 over 3?
BOS up to 18.9 with this storm system as of 1pm
Snowfall Standings
BOS 29.8
NY 21.1
Worcester schools closed tomorrow
So are Taunton schools.
I am not surprised with all that snow that fell.
Re Patriots being underdogs: it’s kind of funny. The reasoning is as simple as they’ve not scored a lot in the post season. But what people don’t realize? How hard it is to score against a top ranked defense. And the Patriots have beaten three top 5 ranked defenses in a row. Never done before. The seahawks aren’t in the top five… they’re six or seven if memory serves. It’ll still be a tough one but it’s on the board that it could be an easier task to score.
Take the Patriots with the points.
Most of the cancellations are for tonight.
Quite a few have already canceled for tomorrow also.
A few hours ago while I was outside clearing the driveway, the sun made an appearance through the falling snow. It was a great thing to see.
🙂
I would say that is a signal that the late afternoon/early evening final snow threat is over. Just a few fleeting flakes here.
We managed another inch from today’s wimpy snow.
I just came in from clean up duty and had my tape measure with me. It was extremely difficult to get an accurate reading.
Best I can tell, we are at 19-20 inches. Snow piles are HIGH.
I can tell you that the snow is DEEP!!!! I had to walk around back to clear the cellar bulkhead. The snow was up to my knees and I am 6-1. To be fair, some of that blew off the roof in last night’s wind, but either way, there is a SHIT-TON of SNOW!!!! Pile by our driveway is about 8 feet tall already. I shutter to think what it would be like with another big storm’s snow?????
Apparently it snowed like hell after my head hit the pillow!!!!
I didn’t get to see it.
We got another three quarters inch here overnight and today. 16.75″ total assuming it doesnt snow any more tonight. It is deep indeed…magnified by the fact we already had about 3″ cover before this storm started.
Our superintendent sent out an update at 3pm saying a decision on tomorrow is coming at 5pm
He said the DPW and custodial staffs are doing a great job, but the volume of snow plus some of the new snow, plus getting the sidewalks clear is a major task.
I can see tomorrow getting cancelled or a delay.
And it’s still snowing and now it’s cold, so, I’m guessing our major route, 139, doesn’t have some payment showing, like it did this morning.
I heard that the Patriots are now 4.5 point underdogs.
Yes. The line did not change from the opening last night which was Patriots 4.5 underdog.
this ensemble Eric Fisher seems to like, saying its done very well, I am not sure what model its the ensemble of though it doesn’t really say. TK what is this? Do you agre with its accuracy? https://efisher828.github.io/weathernext/
It would be more helpful if his post actually showed which model’s ensemble we were looking at. But that particular format is not that great and is just another way of looking at information we can see better on other sites.
At this point, it should only be ensembles (regardless of model) that are being watched for next weekend.
Individual model runs are virtually worthless. I’ve also noticed that the only ones being posted out there on social media are the ones that show a “hit” while the ones that keep the system offshore are ignored. Gee I wonder why… 🙂
Anyway I’ll dig a bit. But my initial feeling on next weekend’s threat is a little more “outside” than this most recent event.
I ran out to the store and although the roads are in decent shape I am not sure they are “bus ready”. Only the main roads were somewhat down to pavement.
And to add, the snowbanks are ridiculously high making it hard to pull out of roads/parking lots.
They sure are. Inching out at each intersection/driveway/etc
TK, I would love your thoughts on the next threat. You have been eyeing this time frame for some time and curious what your meteorology expertise is telling you. Clearly I know it is almost a week out so not expecting an exact forecast.
I have been eyeing January 31 – February 2 for about 2 weeks.
Actually, check my reply to Matt’s question above for my initial thoughts – which are not that extensive yet. 🙂
Thank you very much, I missed that reply.
The next and maybe final piece of energy is emerging into west-central Mass with hints of some reinvigorating to the snow.
1” more inland and 2” more near the coast within vicinity of the coastal front?
This is the final burst, and there may be some slight enhancement near the boundary, however that boundary is going to be pulling east with the departing system in a few hours.
The last of the snow should be ending at 04z (11 p.m.) in Boston and by about 06z (1 a.m.) over Cape Cod.
The forecast amounts in my forecast update today stand unchanged.
Thanks TK !!
Quincy schools closed tomorrow.
Minor rant: I don’t care who it is, but the word “blizzard” should NOT be used in regards to the weekend potential right now. It serves ZERO purpose for positive, and only is there to garner clicks and shares. I don’t subscribe to this method of sucking people in.
A blizzard is a strictly defined set of conditions, not a “storm”. The term should not be applied to a storm threat in any way, shape, or form. It’s misleading and confusing. I have a very strong opinion on this and am disappointed seeing it in media already. This is likely not coming from any meteorologist. Once again, it’s likely coming from the “boss”. WBZ is especially guilty of the hype headlines of late, and I know that’s not coming from Eric and his team. I’m very disappointed they are being told to use the terms, and I’m disappointed that people writing headlines for the social media posts are being told to use sensationalist phrases. Media continues to drift in the wrong direction.
Rant done, but not forgotten. 😉
I so agree . This snow removal company in Boston posts all there work on Facebook & kept saying blizzard , was not a blizzard ( strict requirement for a Blizzard!!!!
Ironically, the only place that got “close” to blizzard conditions was Nantucket, but they fell shy of fulfilling all of the requirements.
TK – Regarding next weekend’s threat, did you mean outside the “benchmark”?
Well I’m not really specifically thinking about 40/70. There is a long way to go, but my first inkling is that the upper pattern will cut that low off well to the south, then elongate it and it jello-wobbles east northeast.
This is just an early idea. A lot of solutions are on the table being over 5 days away.
https://weather.us/radar-us/massachusetts/reflectivity/KBOX.html#play-0-7-5
Look at that slow intensification out in North Central Mass.
I was just going to post the radar and mention that. It is expanding and intensifying. Interesting.
Got a town under that band whose ob went from 3 miles to 1.25 miles.
I think we’ll be brooming a good 1-2 more inches tomorrow morning.
Where is it tom
Have a look
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Ok
Spends how long it snows. 🙂 🙂 but could be.
I’ve got no place to broom it!!!
I’ll have to heave ho it up and away and I mean up!!!
Spends => depends !!!!!! wow!!!
18Z ICON looks like it poised to come up here, but I think a bit off shore.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2026012618&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2026012618&fh=120&dpdt=&mc=&r=conus&p=500wh&m=icon
too bad 18Z only goes out 120 hours.
Is the snow still coming in today , nothing going on here
Yes
Wow is that snow to the West expanding!!!!
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
I presume this is the remnant primary or upper low
associated with last night’s event?
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif
I’m under it as we speak
Exactly as depicted by the RRFS model. 🙂
TK – I know you hate the word “blizzard” at this point because of the hype but I have to say it:
The new blizzard at Dairy Queen is a Red Velvet Cake. My wife will absolutely want it once she hears about it.
Now that’s a blizzard I can get behind … 🙂
As will I!!! Thanks for letting us know. Are there any Dairy Queens open during the Winter? All the ones I know of are seasonal.
Hanover is open year round. 🙂
A bit of a trek for me, even for a delicious treat. 🙂
rt. 53? near mall?
Yes, on route 53 next to the old Starland.
North Attleboro too.
Snowing here lightly already as the area expanded well to the East.
So far I am impressed with the RRFS’s performance on its first real Miller B winter storm case study.
Need to observe more of the Millers and other larger scale events to gauge more biases. It definitely showed a strong bias toward over-forecasting snow in the Kuchera ratio adjustment inside 24 hours.
Silver Lake Regional (Halifax, Kingston, Plympton) just canceled school for tomorrow.
With the earlier discussion of moderate vs heavy snow I was trying to recall the symbols that local mets (and the NWS) used on their maps before the advent of computerized graphics. I did a little search and came across this website.
https://medium.com/@WeatherDecTech/the-power-of-weather-symbols-f6226d0c6c20
Cool. Copied and saved. Tx
There is a serious fluff situation out here right now lol. Probably going to have to plow again.
https://radar.weather.gov/station/KBOX/standard
Yup, the dark greens are back
Should be over Vicki right now.
I looked out and groaned. I shut the blinds 🙂
1 day looking forward to SB with patriots return
2 possible storms to watch for according to TK
3 on wordle today
4 th episode of season 6 All Creatures next week
5 driveways snow blown today….
5 things to be thankful for.
Also for those who shared good wishes my mom has made a good transition into the care facility near us.
Great news!
Awesome and love the Wordle 3
All excellent!
Glad to hear that
On a different topic, has anyone seen or read about this guy who climbed a very tall skyscraper in Taipei. And I don’t mean stairs. Rather, he climbed the outside of the building with no harness or safety net. If I even think about it, I get anxious. I hope I don’t have a nightmare. But I might.
Watched it! Can’t stand it.
Thanks, TK — for multiple days!
From NWS Boston. Snow totals as of 7pm
Updated Storm Totals as of 7 PM Mon:
Worcester: 20.9″
Boston: 20.2″
Hartford: 17.3″
Providence: 13.5″
The 20.2 makes it the 10th biggest snowfall in Boston history
https://x.com/ericfisher/status/2015944370483069271
Updated Snowfall Standings
BOS 31.1
NY 21.1
Snowing harder now than it did all last night
Pounding snow for at least the last 2 hours.
Big fat flakes really stacking up again. Close to two inches of fresh fluffy snow since getting underneath this band.
I measured 17.6 inches in several areas in the yard basically out the wind. Also no rooftop blow off where I measured. I’m only 2 miles from tf green airport where the official measurements are taken. Nearby areas around the Providence Warwick area similar to what I measured. Why is pvd international always lower? Are the measurements automated?
Any thoughts?
Maybe another hour under this band and then a couple of hours of lighter snow before the entire system pulls away. 2-4 inches of fresh snow.
Ughh, no school again tomorrow.
Same here, no school but honestly not surprised. 20+ inches isn’t a joke.
We had 13”
Got a good solid 3+ inches from that band. Just had every clean. Unreal.
3.25 with this last bit. Total 18.65 all told. I get no school or delays. Folks here had a fair amount of overnight treatment leading up to Fern.
A town that prepares, what a concept!
My comment was misleading. I meant folks who clear the roads were out a number of nights before Fern clearing the small storms that went through. They have to be exhausted
Visibility is really poor here right now…seeing a couple of plows again. Probably 2-3 inches here in the past 90 minutes or so.
I think it just hit us as it’s snowing pretty decently right now
16 degrees
I think we got 3 inches from this lat hurrah bring totalt to 22 inches.
It arrived late but it’s here now snowing pretty good
Just went out and measured in 4 places for new snow and it looks like 3.5 inches. Still snowing but lighter now as the heavier band starts to exit. Looks like one more band of steady light that looks to be between 495 and 128…will see if that hold up. Could end up overall with another inch.
Thanks TK…spot on forecast.
It’s been rough being a snow lover the past few years, but this one delivered….5 inches of fluff from this evening’s snow for a total of 25 inches in North Reading
Really big flakes
We ended with two feet. Forecast was nearly perfect.
Are u still in Westwood?
I’m pretty sure the DPW does the school lots, but it’s the custodial staff that does around the school, like all the areas where the students stand for busses, the exits, etc.
I know the custodial staffs killed thrmselves today with the sheer volume of snow they had to remove and still, the pictures the superintendent showed our town showed more areas that needed larger clearings.
Then you add a redo tonight with the new stuff …
I teslky think the closures tomorrow were to let the exhausted custodial staff go home and rest tonight and give them another day to clear the new stuff and still work on widening openings from the sheer volume of snow that fell on Sunday.
20.2” new number from Logan. I think.
Oh way back at 7pm sorry.
That’s probably hit another 1.5-2 added to that.
140+ hrs out, doesn’t mean much, but I like tghe more offshore signals on the few 00z runs.
I’m game for another 50+ inches of snow, but don’t need it through an explosive northeaster. No thank you !
Ok I guess the gfs op run is closer than I thought.
Not good.
0z GFS op is 17” of snow Boston and 0z CMC is 13”. Not much back our way though. That said, Wouldn’t take much to back those heavier totals further west.
Also Tom, check out the GFS ensembles (and ICON ensembles as well). Lots of members NW of the op runs.
We picked up another 1.5” of snow here today bringing our total to 17.5” which was exactly my prediction for Coventry. I think I am going to be pretty close on my Boston and Worcester guesses as well.
Very frigid out now…10F and windy with lots of blowing snow.
Boston tied a daily record snowfall with 6.5” yesterday set in 1949.
Can’t believe how much fluff we got last night. Easily 4 inches after we cleared everything!
Very interesting setup, big stakes here with this next storm. Nowhere to put any more snow.
A lot of settling and sublimation takes place over the next 5 days.
Great forecast and I noticed a much easier forecast bc we didn’t have a massive low pressure system. The strong lows you always have some folks who miss out and others that overachieve. This was a much easier and uniform for a storm, you can see that for the most part everyone got what was forecasted and really no major busts.
New post…